October 7, 2011

Gateway Distriparks Ltd.

CMP Rs. 138

Key Share Data
Face Value (Rs.) Equity Capital (Rs. crs) Market. Capitalization (Rs. crs) 52-wk High / Low (Rs. ) Average Yearly Volume BSE code NSE code Reuters code Bloomberg code 10.0 108.15 1494.63 147.7 / 97 65809 532622 GDL GATE.BO GDPL IN

Target Rs. 192

Initiating Coverage- Buy

Company Profile
Gateway Distriparks Ltd (GDL), a leading provider of port related logistics support services in India. GDL operates container freight station on a pan India basis with strategic locations at JNPT, Chennai, Vizag and Kochi and ICDs located at Garhi Harsaru and Ludhiana, Kalamboli and Asoti, Faridabad. This presence enables it to cater to the West coast traffic, demand from the Northern hinterlands as well as the east coast traffic.

Shareholding Pattern
P u b lic 10%

30th June 2011

Investment Rationale
Expansion of CFS facilities to capture burgeoning container traffic GDL is one of the key player in CFS business with a total capacity of 0.44 mn TEUs. GDL is focusing to enhance CFS business, given that CFS division attracts higher margin. It has expanded its capacity at Chennai and Vizag port to 90000 and 48000 TEU respectively. Kochi port facility is expected to start its operation by Q4FY12, with this total CFS capacity would increase to 0.54 mn TEU by FY13E from 0.44 mn TEUs in FY11. We expect CFS volume to register 12.2% CAGR from 3,33,422 TEUs in FY11 to 4,20,000 TEUs in FY13E with the new capacity starting at Kochi. We expect CFS division to register a top line of Rs. 274.0 crore and Rs. 327.5 crore in FY12E and FY13E respectively.

F o r e ig n 28%

Pr o m o te r 40% Non Pr o m o te r 9%

In s t it u io n s 13%

Source: Capitaline

Financials (Consolidated)
Net Sales Sales Gr EBIDTA PAT PAT Gr EPS (Rs.) CEPS (Rs) FY10 516.6 14% 124.9 80.3 4% 7.3 11.5 FY11 599.1 16% 159.7 99.7 24% 8.9 13.6

(Rs. Crore)
FY12E 711.3 19% 214.0 123.5 24% 11.1 16.3 FY13E 854.1 20% 257.6 154.9 25% 13.8 19.4

Rail Business a key growth driver GDL Ltd is now the largest private railway haulage operator in India and operating 21 rakes and 3 ICDs at strategic locations. ICD at Faridabad is expected to be operational from Q3FY12E. On the rail business, volume is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.5% over FY11-FY13E.We estimate GDLs Railway businesss sales to grow at a 16% CAGR in FY11-FY13E.

Key Financial Ratios Div. yield P/E P/BV P/Cash EPS MCap/Sales EV/EBIDTA ROCE ROE EBITDM(%) NPM (%) Debt-Equity
FY10 2.5% 18.8 2.2 11.9 2.9 12.9 8% 12% 24% 15% 0.3 FY11 4.3% 15.4 2.2 10.1 2.5 9.1 9% 10% 27% 16% 0.1 FY12E 2.9% 12.4 1.9 8.5 2.1 6.5 13% 11% 30% 17% 0.1 FY13E 2.9% 10.0 1.7 7.1 1.8 5.2 15% 13% 30% 17% 0.1

Cold chain logistics business adjoining growth Snowman Logistics Ltd (SLL) is the only organized pan India cold chain logistics player in this growing business, with a nationwide network connecting more than 100 cities and more than 4400 outlets. Company has a capacity of over 16000 pallets for frozen and chilled products and fleet of over 100 refrigerated trucks. We expect pallet capacity to increase to 31000 in FY12E and 41000 by FY13E.

I year Performance comparison GDL v/s BSE Midcap

0.3 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 GDL BSEMIDCAP

Valuation At current market price of Rs. 138-, GDL is trading at P/E of 12.4x and 10.0x of FY12E and FY13E earnings of Rs. 11.1 and 13.8 respectively. We recommend BUY rating on the stock with a target price of Rs. 192/- (40% upside) in 15 months at the P/E of 14x on FY13E earnings.

Analyst: Kamna Jain

Tel No.: +91 22 2281 9012 Email: kamna.jain@skpmoneywise.com

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Page 1 of 11

Gateway Distriparks Ltd.

Industry Overview
Logistics Industry The Indian logistics industry accounts for a mere 2% ($100 billion) of the $5000 billion global logistics industry despite having the second largest network of roads at 3.83 million km, the fourth largest rail network of 63000 km, 128 airports, 12 major ports, 1 trans-shipment port and 187 non major ports. Indian Logistics sector grew by 8 to 10 percent annually over the last decade. Several factors have favorably impacted the growth of the logistics industry, like the countrys tax regime, growth across major industry segments such as automobile, pharmaceutical, fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) and the emergence of organized retail. Economic survey for 2010-11 reflects that economy is an upswing mode, with a growth of 8.6% in FY10 and FY11 and is projected to grow at 8.75% - 9.25% in FY12. Strong economic growth and liberalization have led to considerable increase in domestic and international trade volumes over the past few years. Consequently, the requirement for transportation, handling and warehousing is growing at a robust pace and is driving the demand for integrated logistics solutions. Exim trade volume of India is growing consistently from last decade hence India is set to increase its share in global trade from less than 1% now to about 1.6% in 2012.
1400000 1200000 1000000 Rs. crores 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 FY 01 FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 Exports
Source: Economic survey 2010-11

India 's Exim Trade

Imports

A prDec 11

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Thailand

Export to GDP ratio

China

South Africa

Maxico

India

Source: SKP research

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Gateway Distriparks Ltd.

Indias level of containerization is less than 25% as against global average of 60-70%. Average time taken to clear import and export cargo at ports is about 19 days in India, against 3-4 days in Singapore. The trend towards containerization picked up in India in the last decade. Container traffic has seen a 12% CAGR in India from 2.5 million TEU in 2000-01 to 7.5 million TEU in 2010-11. The incessant growth in containerized traffic provides significant indication of increase in multimodal transport as containers are designed for door to door transportation by different modes.
8000 Co n ta in e r tra f f ic ( TEU'0 0 0 )

6000

4000

2000

04

06

08

0 Y1 F F

Y0

Y0

Y0

Y0

Y0

Y0

FY

FY

FY

Source: IPA & SKP Research

CFS/ICDs CFSs and ICDs are facilities set-up for the purpose of in-transit container handling, examination assessment of cargo with respect to regulatory clearances, both import and export. The CFSs / ICDs are an integral part of the logistics chain in relation to the movement of containerized cargo. Functionally, there is no distinction between an ICD/CFS as both are transit facilities which offer services for containerization of break-bulk cargo and vice-versa. An ICD is located in the interiors (outside the towns) of the country away from the gateway ports. A CFS, on the other hand, is an off dock facility located near gateway ports which helps in decongesting the port by shifting cargo and customs related activities outside the port area.

Primary Functions of ICDs / CFSs o Receipt and dispatch/delivery of cargo. o Stuffing and stripping of containers. o Transit operations by rail/road to and from gateway ports. o Customs clearance. o Consolidation and desegregation of cargo. o Temporary storage of cargo and containers. o Maintenance and repair of container units. Indias freight transport system currently carries approx. 2.8 billion metric tones of cargo, which is expected to grow to approx 5.2 billion MT by 2020 at a CAGR of 6 percent. Logistics cost in India is fairly high at around 14% of GDP, as against 8-9% in most developed nation. This inefficiency is reflected on all products being manufactured, consumed, warehoused and traded in India, contributing significantly to the biggest challenge faced by Indias growing economy Inflation. Measurable improvements have been made over the last few years in building hard infrastructure, but still at the fundamental level, road has the largest share of transport at about 60% with rail having only about 35% market share. Thus dependency on road makes hinterland cargo movement more expensive and inefficient.

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Y1

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Gateway Distriparks Ltd.

Company Overview
Gateway Distriparks Ltd (GDL), Gateway Distriparks Ltd, a leading provider of port related logistics support services in India, promoted by the Windmill group, the Thakral group and Paramesware Holdings Ltd based in Singapore and Mr. Prem Kishan Gupta and Prism International Pvt Ltd, based in India. GDL operates container freight station on a pan India basis with strategic locations at JNPT, Chennai, Vizag and Kochi. GDLs subsidiary, Gateway Rail operates the Rail-linked facilities at Garhi-Harsaru (Gurgaon, Haryana), Ludhiana (Punjab) and Kalamboli (Navi Mumbai). Its upcoming terminal at Asaoti (Faridabad, Haryana) will be operational by Q4FY11-12. Gateway rail operates 21 trains and 235+ road trailors at its rail linked terminals. The service offering of the company includes transportation of containers to and from the port, stuffing and destuffing of cargo, custom clearance, storage in warehouse and other value added services such as general and bonded warehousing services, palletizing, shrink wrapping and other administrative services. GDL also provides Cold Chain Logistics Solutions via a pan-India network through its JV with Mitsubishi and IFC (World Bank) Snowman Logistics Ltd. In March 2010, International Finance Corporation has invested Rs. 248.90 million in the equity capital of the company. Mitsubishi Corporation, Mitsubishi Logistics Corporation and Nichirei Logistics Group Inc. are other shareholders in SLL. The company is in the process of expanding its cold store capacities and refrigerated transport network.

. Location and facilities Location Navi Mumbai - JNPT Punjab Conware - JNPT Chennai Vizag Kochi Garhi Harsaru Ludhiana Kalamboli, Navi Mumbai Faridabad CFS/ICDs CFS CFS CFS CFS CFS Rail ICD Rail ICD Rail ICD Rail ICD Area(Acres) 35 27 20 20 20 90 50 17 66 Title Leasehold 15 years O&M Freehold Leasehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Alliance Freehold

Source: Company & SKP Research

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Gateway Distriparks Ltd.

Investment Arguments
Strategic location and enjoying fair market share Gateway Distriparks Ltd has its presence in key ports of India like JNPT Mumbai, Chennai, Vizag, Kochi where its CFS are enjoying fair market share. The CFS at Navi Mumbai is located at a distance of 9 kms from JNPT. JNPT has recorded a CAGR of 14% from 1.19 million TEUs in 2000-01 to 4.27 million TEUs in 2010-11 in the volume of container throughput handled over the past ten years. GDL is very well positioned to take advantage of this growth potential at JNPT. The CFS at Chennai is situated at a distance of 16 kms from Chennai port, Indias second largest container terminal port. GDL is enjoying 8% market share at this port. The ICD at Garhi is located at a distance of 40 kms west of Delhi and can also cater to the markets in Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Delhi. Thus, GDL with its pan India presence at Navi Mumbai, Chennai, Vizag, Kochi and Delhi and enroute access to western gateway ports of Kandla, Pipavav and Mundra can effectively address the requirements of Import/ export container cargo from various strategic locations.

Expansion of CFS facilities to capture burgeoning container traffic GDL is one of the key player in CFS business with a total capacity of 0.44 mn TEUs. Gateway Distriparks enjoys 13% market share at JNPT Mumbai, 8% market share at Chennai and approx 40% market share at Vizag port. GDL is focusing to enhance CFS business, given that CFS division attracts higher margin. It has expanded its capacity at Chennai and Vizag port to 90000 and 48000 TEU respectively. Kochi port facility is expected to start its operation by Q4FY12, with this total CFS capacity would increase to 0.54 mn TEU by FY13E from 0.44 mn TEUs in FY11. JNPT contributes approx 70% of total GDLs CFS volume and it attracts higer realization as 85% of the total JNPT volume is cotributed by imports. JNPT is Indias largest container port accounting for 60% of the total Indian container traffic movement. We expect CFS volume to register 12.2% CAGR from 3,33,422 TEUs in FY11 to 4,20,000 TEUs in FY13E with the new capacity starting at Kochi. We expect CFS division to register a top line of Rs. 274.0 crore and Rs. 327.5 crore in FY12E and FY13E respectively.
60% 420000 400000 303963 TEU 300000 9.7% 200000 100000 0 FY10 FY11 CFS volum e FY12E Growth(%) FY13E 10.6% 20% 13.9% 0% -6.3% -20% 333422 368900 40%

500000

400.0 327.5 (Rs. in crore) 300.0 21.6% 233.6 200.0 192.2 -21.3% 100.0 FY10 FY11 CFS Revenue FY12E FY13E 274.0 17.3% 19.5%

60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40%

Growth(%)

Source: Company and SKP Research

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Gateway Distriparks Ltd.

Rail Business a key growth driver GDL Ltd entered the container rail haulage sector in 2007, after the space was thrown open to the private participation. GDL Ltd is now the largest private railway haulage operator in India and operating 21 rakes and three ICDs at strategic locations. ICD at Faridabad is expected to be operational from Q3FY12E. Strong growth potential -In FY08 total Indian freight transport system carried approx. 2.8 billion MT of cargo, of which road transport has 60% and Rail has just 35% market share. High dependence on road transport causes inefficiencies and higher cost, to curve this there is a huge need of improving Rails share in the Indian freight transport system. We believe, railways will maintain their relative advantage over truckers given the price benefits. Further the construction of dedicated freight corridor (DFC) would provide boost to the players operating in the railway haulage business by adding additional capacity that they can utilize. Strong future of rail logistics, reduction in additional fixed cost, better utilization of rakes, lower operating expenses and new ICDs at Faridabad are likely to improve the topline and profitability of Rail business. On the rail business, volume is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.5% over FY11-FY13E.We estimate GDLs Railway businesss sales to grow at a 16% CAGR in FY11-FY13E.

``

200000 69.1% 150000 112444 TEU 100000 16.8% 18.0% 131337 154978

178224

80%

500.0

58.1% 370.4 289.9 320.3

60% 430.2

60%
(Rs. in crore)

400.0

40%

40%

300.0

15.6% 200.0 10.5%

16.2% 20%

50000

20% 15.0% 0%

0 F Y10 FY11 R Volum ail e F Y12E G rowth(% ) FY13E

100.0 FY10 FY11 R R ail evenue FY12E G rowth(%) FY13E

0%

Source: Company and SKP Research

Cold chain logistics business adjoining growth Cold Chain Logistics business offers a Rs. 1000 crore market opportunity in India, out of which 15% comes through organized players. Snowman Logistics Ltd (SLL) is the only organized pan India cold chain logistics player in this growing business, with a nationwide network connecting more than 100 cities and more than 4400 outlets. GDL has already accounted 20-25% of the organized market. There is increasing demand for cold chain facilities due to increase in consumption of perishable products and entry of large retail chains, which require extensive network of cold chain stores and refrigerated transport to manage their supply chain.

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Gateway Distriparks Ltd.

SLL is expanding its cold storage network at key locations and the refrigerated transport fleet across the country. SLL serves large FMCG companies and organized retail chains like Amul, Mother Dairy, Baskin Robbins, KFC, HUL, ITC, Parle Agro etc. Company has a capacity of over 16000 pallets for frozen and chilled products and fleet of over 100 refrigerated trucks. We expect pallet capacity to increase to 31000 in FY12E and 41000 by FY13E. GDLs cold chain logistics segment is looking fairly optimistic on the back of elevated demand. This segment has reported Revenue of Rs. 45 crore in FY11 and we expect it to grow at a CAGR of 46% from FY11 to FY13E. We believe, this segment will contribute around 9% and 11.3% to companys total revenue in FY12E and FY13E respectively.

120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2% FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E 35 45 67 48% 96 44% 29%

60%

Revenue (Rs. crore)

20%

0%

Source: SKP Research

Key Concerns
Increased competition: Logistic industry in India is quite fragmented. There are many small and large players providing end to end logistics solution, making this market highly competitive. Significantly, large numbers of CFSs are coming up at Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata coupled with shipping lines setting up their own CFSs is a major threat. However, with the anticipated increase in volumes, growth momentum is expected to be sustained in the short to medium term. Economic downturn: Container growth depends on the EXIM volume in a country. In 2008-09 companies have already seen a global turmoil. Any further slowdown can affect GDLs utilization and rates for its service offering. Regulatory changes: GDLs major revenue comes from its CFSs facility at JNPT. The business potential of GDLs Navi Mumbai operations is directly related to the operations of JNPT. Thus any downturn or regulatory changes at JNPT could affect the companys performance in future.

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Growth (%)

40%

Page 7 of 11

Gateway Distriparks Ltd. Peer Valuation

We believe that GDL Ltd is the best positioned company in the logistics sector with its pan India presence of CFSs and ICDs and early entry in Rail haulage business. P/E (x) Revenue GDL Concor Allcargo 599.1 3828.1 2863.3 EBITDA Margin (%) 27% 31% 10% FY12E 12.4 12.8 8.6 FY13E 10.0 11.7 7.3 EV/EBITDA (x) FY12E 6.5 8.9 6.1 FY13E 5.2 8.3 5.2 P/BV (x) FY12E 1.9 2.1 1.3 FY13E 1.7 1.8 1.1

Valuations & Outlook

GDL Ltd is a strong player in logistics sector led by its continuing growth momentum of its CFS business with presence at strategic locations and aggressive entry into Rail Haulage and Cold chain logistics business. At current market price of Rs. 138-, GDL is trading at P/E of 12.4x and 10.0x of FY12E and FY13E earnings of Rs. 11.1 and 13.8 respectively. We recommend BUY rating on the stock with a target price of Rs. 192/- (40% upside) in 15 months at the P/E of 14x on FY13 earnings. 1 year forward P/E Band
300.00 250.00 200.00
150.00

1 year forward P/BV Band

250.00 200.00

150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00 Apr- Sep- Feb- Jul- Dec- May- Oct- Mar- Aug- Jan- Jun- Nov- Apr- Sep06 06 07 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 10 11 11 10.0 X 15.0 X 20.0 X 25.0 X
100.00 50.00 0.00 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11

1.0 X

1.5 X

2.0 X

2.5 X

3.0 X

Source: SKP Research

Financial Outlook
Topline to grow at a CAGR of 19.4% over FY11-13E
854.1 711.3 516.6 599.1 20% 16% 14% 200.0 0.0 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E 19%

1000.0 800.0 Rs. in Crs 600.0 400.0

We expect consolidated revenue to grow at a CAGR of 19.4% over FY11-FY13E on back of growth in cold chain logistics business, capacity addition at existing CFS and commencement of new CFS and ICD.

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Gateway Distriparks Ltd.

CFS business is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.4% over FY11-FY13E led by operational of new CFS at Kochi and better utilization of CFS at JNPT. Rail business is expected to register a topline of Rs. 430.2 crore in FY13E with addition of new ICD at Faridabad and better volume. Cold chain logistics division is expected to grow at a CAGR of 46% over FY11-FY13E led by increase in pallets capacity.

Revenue Mix:
100%

80% 60%

40%

20% 0% FY 10 CFS FY 11 Rail Logistics FY 12E FY 13E

Cold Chain Logis tic s

300.0 250.0 Rs. in crore 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 FY10 FY11 E A BITD FY12E FY13E E BITDA M argin(%) 124.9 24.2 26.7 159.7 214.0 30.1 257.6 30.2

40.0 EBITDA margin (%) 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0

EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 27% over FY11FY13E We expect EBITDA margin to improve by approx 350 bps from 24.2% to 30.2% over FY11-FY13E, mainly due to combined growing contribution of CFS and Cold chain logistics business.

200.0 17.4 Rs. in crore 16.2 15.3 100.0 79.1 50.0 0.0 FY10 FY11 Net Profit FY12E P M AT argin (%) FY13E 96.8 120.0 16.9 148.7 150.0

20.0

.
PAT margin(%)

15.0

10.0

Net profit margin is expected to improve by 130 bps from 16.2% to 17.4% over FY11FY13E.

5.0

Source: SKP Research

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Page 9 of 11

Gateway Distriparks Ltd. Consolidated Financials for FY March (Rs. in Crore)

Income Statement
Financial Year
Net Sales Growth (%) EBIDTA Growth (%) Depreciation EBIT Interest Other Income PBT Tax PAT Growth (%) Minority Interest Profit after minority interest O/S shares EPS (Rs.)

Balance Sheet
FY10
516.6 14.3% 124.9 -15.1% 45.5 79.4 19.5 12.5 72.4 -7.9 80.3 3.7% 1.2 79.1 10.8 7.3

FY11
599.1 16.0% 159.7 27.8% 50.2 109.5 18.2 12.9 104.2 4.4 99.7 24.2% 3.0 96.8 10.8 9.0

FY12E
711.3 18.7% 214.0 34.0% 55.8 158.2 11.4 13.5 160.4 36.9 123.5 23.8% 3.5 120.0 10.8 11.1

FY13E
854.1 20.1% 257.6 20.4% 60.4 197.2 10.1 14.2 201.3 46.3 155.0 25.5% 6.2 148.7 10.8 13.8

Year End March

Equity capital CCPS Reserves & Surplus Shareholder's Fund Minority interest Secured Loan Deferred tax liability Sources of funds Net Block Intangible Assets Investments Total Current Assets Current Liabilities & Provisions Net Current Assets Misc. Expenses Uses of funds

FY10
107.9 0.0 556.3 664.2 62.5 209.9 18.7 955.3 870.2 0.0 15.0 200.3 130.7 69.6 0.5 955.3

FY11
108.0 295.8 580.0 688.0 61.0 115.4 14.0 1174.1 982.5 0.1 13.0 288.5 110.5 178.0 0.5 1174.1

FY12E
108.0 295.8 649.4 757.4 64.5 94.8 14.0 1226.5 986.8 0.1 13.0 357.3 131.2 226.2 0.5 1226.5

FY13E
108.0 295.8 747.6 855.6 70.8 84.0 14.0 1320.1 1026.3 0.1 13.0 437.8 157.5 280.2 0.5 1320.1

Ratios
Year End March
Valuation Ratios (X)

Cash Flow statement

FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
Year End March FY10 72.4 67.2 39.6 -16.4 162.8 -92.4 5.7 -1.6 -88.3 -54.2 20.2 59.3 79.6 FY11 104.2 68.8 -40.9 -23.0 109.1 -160.1 4.4 -4.5 -160.2 122.2 71.1 79.5 150.6 FY12E 160.4 66.3 -4.3 -36.9 185.5 -60.0 0.0 0.0 -60.0 -82.5 43.0 150.6 193.6 FY13E 201.3 69.4 -5.5 -46.3 219.0 -100.0 0.0 0.0 -100.0 -71.4 47.5 193.6 241.1

Price Earning (P/E) Price / Book Value Price / Cash EPS EV / EBIDTA Market Cap / Sales Earning Ratios OPM NPM RoNW RoCE DPR Balance Sheet Ratios Debt-Equity Current Ratio Debtors Days Creditors Days Interest Coverage Ratio

18.8 2.2 11.9 13.0 2.9

15.4 2.2 10.1 9.1 2.5

12.4 2.0 8.5 6.5 2.1

10.0 1.7 7.1 5.2 1.7 Profit before tax Add: Depreciation, Int. & other expenses Net changes in working capital Direct taxes paid Cash Flow from Operating activities Capital expenditure Investment,Dividend, Interest & others Change in minority interest Cash flow from investing activities Cash Flow from Financing activities Cash Flow during the year Opening Cash Cash & cash equivalent

24.2% 15.3% 11.9% 8.3% 0.5

26.7% 16.2% 9.8% 9.3% 0.7

30.1% 16.9% 11.4% 12.9% 0.4

30.2% 17.4% 12.9% 14.9% 0.3

0.3 1.5 42.2 64.2 4.1

0.1 2.6 39.4 69.3 6.0

0.1 2.7 34.8 53.2 13.9

0.1 2.8 34.6 53.0 19.6

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Gateway Distriparks Ltd.

The above analysis and data are based on last available prices and not official closing rates. Thomson First Call & Investext Myiris, Moneycontrol, Ticker plant and ISI Securities .

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