Waiting-Line Models

(Session 10)

2008 Prentice Hall, Inc.

D1

Outline
Characteristics of a Waiting-Line System
Arrival Characteristics Waiting-Line Characteristics Service Characteristics Measuring a Queues Performance

Queuing Costs
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Outline
The Variety of Queuing Models
Model A(M/M/1): Single-Channel Queuing Model with Poisson Arrivals and Exponential Service Times Model B(M/M/S): Multiple-Channel Queuing Model Model C(M/D/1): Constant-Service-Time Model Model D: Limited-Population Model

Other Queuing Approaches

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Waiting Lines
Often called queuing theory Waiting lines are common situations Useful in both manufacturing and service industries
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Common Queuing Situations

Situation Supermarket Highway toll booth Doctors office Computer system Arrivals in Queue Grocery shoppers Automobiles Patients Programs to be run Service Process Checkout clerks at cash register Collection of tolls at booth Treatment by doctors and nurses Computer processes jobs Switching equipment to forward calls Transactions handled by teller Repair people fix machines Dock workers load and unload

Telephone company Callers Bank Machine maintenance Harbor Customer Broken machines Ships and barges

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D5

Characteristics of Waiting-Line Systems

1. Arrivals or inputs to the system
Population size, behavior, statistical distribution

2. Queue discipline, or the waiting line itself

Limited or unlimited in length, discipline of people or items in it

3. The service facility

Design, statistical distribution of service times
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Arrival Characteristics
1. Size of the population
Unlimited (infinite) or limited (finite)

2. Pattern of arrivals
Scheduled or random, often a Poisson distribution

3. Behavior of arrivals
Wait in the queue and do not switch lines No balking or reneging
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Parts of a Waiting Line

Population of dirty cars Arrivals from the general population Queue (waiting line) Service facility
Daves Car Wash

Exit the system

Enter

Exit

Arrivals to the system

In the system

Exit the system

Arrival Characteristics Size of the population Behavior of arrivals Statistical distribution of arrivals

Waiting Line Characteristics Limited vs. unlimited Queue discipline

Service Characteristics Service design Statistical distribution of service

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D8

Poisson Distribution
e-x P(x) = x!
where P(x) x e = = = =

for x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4,

probability of x arrivals number of arrivals per unit of time average arrival rate 2.7183 (which is the base of the natural logarithms)

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Poisson Distribution
e-x Probability = P(x) = x!
0.25 Probability Probability 0.02 0.15 0.10 0.05 x 0.25 0.02 0.15 0.10 0.05
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 x

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Distribution for = 2

Distribution for = 4

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D 10

Waiting-Line Characteristics
Limited or unlimited queue length Queue discipline - first-in, first-out (FIFO) is most common Other priority rules may be used in special circumstances

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D 11

Service Characteristics
Queuing system designs
Single-channel system, multiplechannel system Single-phase system, multiphase system

Service time distribution

Constant service time Random service times, usually a negative exponential distribution
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Queuing System Designs

A family dentists office Queue Arrivals
Service facility

Departures after service

Single-channel, single-phase system A McDonalds dual window drive-through Queue Arrivals

Phase 1 service facility Phase 2 service facility

Departures after service

Single-channel, multiphase system

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Queuing System Designs

Most bank and post office service windows

Service facility Channel 1

Queue Arrivals
Service facility Channel 2 Service facility Channel 3

Departures after service

Multi-channel, single-phase system

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Queuing System Designs

Some college registrations

Queue Arrivals

Phase 1 service facility Channel 1 Phase 1 service facility Channel 2

Phase 2 service facility Channel 1 Phase 2 service facility Channel 2

Departures after service

Multi-channel, multiphase system

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Negative Exponential Distribution

Probability that service time 1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1
| | | | | | | | | | | | 0.0 | 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00

Probability that service time is greater than t = e-t for t 1 = Average service rate e = 2.7183 Average service rate () = 3 customers per hour Average service time = 20 minutes per customer

Average service rate () = 1 customer per hour

Time t (hours)

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D 16

Measuring Queue Performance

1. Average time that each customer or object spends in the queue 2. Average queue length 3. Average time each customer spends in the system 4. Average number of customers in the system 5. Probability that the service facility will be idle 6. Utilization factor for the system 7. Probability of a specific number of customers in the system

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D 17

Queuing Costs
Cost

Minimum Total cost

Total expected cost Cost of providing service Cost of waiting time Low level of service Optimal service level High level of service

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D 18

Queuing Models
The four queuing models here all assume: Poisson distribution arrivals FIFO discipline A single-service phase

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Queuing Models
Model A Name Single-channel system (M/M/1) Example Information counter at department store

Number Number of of Channels Phases Single Single

Arrival Rate Pattern Poisson

Service Time Pattern Exponential

Population Queue Size Discipline Unlimited FIFO

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D 20

Queuing Models
Model B Name Multichannel (M/M/S) Example Airline ticket counter

Number Number of of Channels Phases MultiSingle channel

Arrival Rate Pattern Poisson

Service Time Pattern Exponential

Population Queue Size Discipline Unlimited FIFO

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D 21

Queuing Models
Model C Name Constantservice (M/D/1) Example Automated car wash

Number Number of of Channels Phases Single Single

Arrival Rate Pattern Poisson

Service Time Pattern Constant

Population Queue Size Discipline Unlimited FIFO

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D 22

Queuing Models
Model D Name Limited population (finite population) Example Shop with only a dozen machines that might break

Number Number of of Channels Phases Single Single

Arrival Rate Pattern Poisson

Service Time Pattern Exponential

Population Queue Size Discipline Limited FIFO

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Model A Single-Channel
1. Arrivals are served on a FIFO basis and every arrival waits to be served regardless of the length of the queue 2. Arrivals are independent of preceding arrivals but the average number of arrivals does not change over time 3. Arrivals are described by a Poisson probability distribution and come from an infinite population
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Model A Single-Channel
4. Service times vary from one customer to the next and are independent of one another, but their average rate is known 5. Service times occur according to the negative exponential distribution 6. The service rate is faster than the arrival rate

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Model A Single-Channel
Mean number of arrivals per time period Mean number of units served per time period Average number of units (customers) in the system (waiting and being served) = Ws = Average time a unit spends in the system (waiting time plus service time) 1 = Ls = = =

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Model A Single-Channel
Lq = Average number of units waiting in the queue 2 = ( ) Wq = Average time a unit spends waiting in the queue = ( ) p = Utilization factor for the system =
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Model A Single-Channel
P0 = Probability of 0 units in the system (that is, the service unit is idle) = 1 Pn > k = Probability of more than k units in the system, where n is the number of units in the system =
k+1

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Single-Channel Example
= 2 cars arriving/hour = 3 cars serviced/hour 2 = = 2 cars in the system on average Ls = 3-2 1 1 = = 1 hour average waiting time in Ws = 3-2 the system 22 2 = = 1.33 cars waiting in line Lq = 3(3 - 2) ( )

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Single-Channel Example
= 2 cars arriving/hour = 3 cars serviced/hour

2 Wq = = = 2/3 hour = 40 minute 3(3 - 2) ( ) average waiting time p = / = 2/3 = 66.6% of time mechanic is busy P0 = 1 = .33 probability there are 0 cars in the system

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D 30

Single-Channel Example
Probability of more than k Cars in the System k 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
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Pn > k = (2/3)k + 1 .667 Note that this is equal to 1 - P0 = 1 - .33 .444 .296 .198 Implies that there is a 19.8% chance that more than 3 cars are in the system .132 .088 .058 .039
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Single-Channel Economics
Customer dissatisfaction and lost goodwill Wq Total arrivals Mechanics salary = $10 per hour = 2/3 hour = 16 per day = $56 per day

Total hours customers spend waiting per day

2 2 (16) = 10 hours 3 3 = $106.67

2 Customer waiting-time cost = $10 10 3

Total expected costs = $106.67 + $56 = $162.67

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Model B- Multi-Channel Model

M = = = number of channels open average arrival rate average service rate at each channel 1
M1 n M

P0 =

for M > M M -

1 n! n=0

1 + M!

Ls =

(/)

(M - 1)!(M - )

P + 2 0

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Multi-Channel Model
1 Ws = P0 + = 2 (M - 1)!(M - ) (/)
M

Ls

Lq = Ls

Lq 1 Wq = Ws =

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D 34

Multi-Channel Example
= 2 P0 = 1 = 3 M = 2 = 2(3) 2(3) - 2 1 2

n=0

1 n!

2 3

1 + 2!

2 3

Ls =

(2)(3(2/3)2 1! 2(3) - 2 3 = 8
2

1 2

2 + 3

3 4 .083 2

Ws =

3/4 2

Lq =

1 2 3 = 12 3 4

Wq =

= .0415

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Multi-Channel Example
Single Channel P0 Ls Ws Lq Wq .33 2 cars 60 minutes 1.33 cars 40 minutes Two Channels .5 .75 cars 22.5 minutes .083 cars 2.5 minutes

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Waiting Line Tables

.10 .25 .50 .75 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.6 3.0 4.0 Poisson Arrivals, Exponential Service Times Number of Service Channels, M 1 2 3 4 .0111 .0833 .5000 2.2500 .0039 .0333 .1227 .3333 2.8444 .0030 .0147 .0454 .3128 .8888 4.9322 .0067 .0604 .1739 .6581 1.5282 .0121 .0398 .1609 .3541 2.2164 5

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Waiting Line Table Example

Bank tellers and customers = 18, = 20 Utilization factor = / = .90 Lq Wq =

Number of service windows 1 window 2 windows 3 windows 4 windows

M 1 2 3 4

Number in queue 8.1 .2285 .03 .0041

Time in queue .45 hrs, 27 minutes .0127 hrs, minute .0017 hrs, 6 seconds .0003 hrs, 1 second

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Model-C Constant-Service Model

Average length of queue Average waiting time in queue Average number of customers in system Average time in the system 2 Lq = 2( ) Wq = 2( )

Ls = Lq + Ws = Wq + 1

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Constant-Service Example
Trucks currently wait 15 minutes on average Truck and driver cost $60 per hour Automated compactor service rate () = 12 trucks per hour Arrival rate () = 8 per hour Compactor costs $3 per truck Current waiting cost per trip = (1/4 hr)($60) = $15 /trip 1 8 = hour Wq = 12 2(12)(12 8) Waiting cost/trip = (1/12 hr wait)($60/hr cost) with compactor Savings with = $15 (current) $5(new) new equipment Cost of new equipment amortized Net savings
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= $ 5 /trip = $10 /trip = $ 3 /trip = $ 7 /trip

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Model- D Limited-Population Model

T T+U Average number running: J = NF(1 - X) Service factor: X = Average number waiting: L = N(1 - F) Average number being serviced: H = FNX T(1 - F) Average waiting time: W = XF Number of population: N = J + L + H

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Limited-Population Model
D = Probability that a unit N = Number of potential T will have to wait customers Service factor:inX = T+U queue F = Average number running: J = NF(1 - X) time Efficiency factor T = Average service H = Averagenumber of waiting: =LAverage time between Average number units U = N(1 - F) being served unit service Average number being serviced: H = FNX requirements T(1 - F) J = Average number of units W = Average time a unit Average waiting time: W = waits in line not in queue or in XF service bay Number of population: N = J + L + H L = Average number of units X = Service factor waiting for service M = Number of service channels
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Finite Queuing Table

X .012 .025 .050 .060 .070 .080 .090 .100 M 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 D .048 .100 .198 .020 .237 .027 .275 .035 .313 .044 .350 .054 .386 F .999 .997 .989 .999 .983 .999 .977 .998 .969 .998 .960 .997 .950
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Limited-Population Example
Each of 5 printers requires repair after 20 hours (U) of use One technician can service a printer in 2 hours (T) Printer downtime costs $120/hour Technician costs $25/hour

Service factor: X =

2 = .091 (close to .090) 2 + 20 For M = 1, D = .350 and F = .960 For M = 2, D = .044 and F = .998 Average number of printers working: For M = 1, J = (5)(.960)(1 - .091) = 4.36 For M = 2, J = (5)(.998)(1 - .091) = 4.54

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Limited-Population Example
Average Average Number Each of 5 printers require Cost/Hrafter 20 Cost/Hr(for of use repair for hours U) Technicians Total Downtime Printers Number of One technician can service a printer in 2 hours (T) ($25/hr) Cost/Hr (N - J)$120 Down (N - J) Technicians

Printer downtime costs $120/hour Technician costs $25/hour $76.80 1 .64

$25.00

$101.80

2 .46 Service factor: X =

2 $55.20 $50.00 $105.20 = .091 (close to .090) 2 + 20 For M = 1, D = .350 and F = .960 For M = 2, D = .044 and F = .998 Average number of printers working: For M = 1, J = (5)(.960)(1 - .091) = 4.36 For M = 2, J = (5)(.998)(1 - .091) = 4.54

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Other Queuing Approaches

The single-phase models cover many queuing situations Variations of the four single-phase systems are possible Multiphase models exist for more complex situations
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Problems 1) A waiting line meeting the M/M/1 assumptions has an arrival rate of 4 per hour and a service rate of 12 per hour. What is the probability that the waiting line is empty? Po = 1 - / = 1 - 4/12 = 8/12 or 0.667.

2) A waiting line meeting the M/M/1 assumptions has an arrival rate of 10 per hour and a service rate of 12 per hour. What is the average time a unit spends in the system and the average time a unit spends waiting?

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3) A crew of mechanics at the Highway Department garage repair vehicles that break down at an average of = 7.5 vehicles per day (approximately Poisson in nature). The mechanic crew can service an average of = 10 vehicles per day with a repair time distribution that approximates an exponential distribution. a. What is the utilization rate for this service system? b. What is the average time before the facility can return a breakdown to service? c. How much of that time is spent waiting for service? d. How many vehicles are likely to be in the system at any one time? (a) Utilization is = 7.5 / 10 = .75 or 75 percent; (b) Ws = 1 / (10 7.5) = 1 / 2.5 = 0.4 days; (c) Wq = 7.5 / 10*(10-7.5) = 0.3 days; (d) Ls = 7.5 / (10-7.5) = 7.5 / 2.5 = 3 units.
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4) At the order fulfillment center of a major mail-order firm, customer orders, already packaged for shipment, arrive at the sorting machines to be sorted for loading onto the appropriate truck for the parcel's address. The arrival rate at the sorting machines is at the rate of 100 per hour following a Poisson distribution. The machine sorts at the constant rate of 150 per hour. a. What is the utilization rate of the system? b. What is the average number of packages waiting to be sorted? c. What is the average number of packages in the sorting system? d. How long must the average package wait until it gets sorted? e. What would Lq and Wq be if the service rate were exponential, not constant?
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