Hotels Update 2012

Market Update 2012
26th Edition April 2012 Edited by Leah Tutt ISBN 978-1-84729-854-6
Hotels
Hotels
Foreword
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Contents
Contents
Executive Summary 1. Market Definition 1 2
REPORT COVERAGE....................................................................................................................2
Hotel Categories.............................................................................................................................2 Guest Accommodation Categories.............................................................................................2 Other Terminology........................................................................................................................3
MARKET SECTORS.......................................................................................................................3
Corporate.........................................................................................................................................3 Consumer.........................................................................................................................................3
MARKET TRENDS.........................................................................................................................4
The Importance of Tourism ........................................................................................................4 Tourism Trends...............................................................................................................................4 Table 1.1: Overseas Residents Visits to the UK and Expenditure in the UK (million, m and ), 2007-2010 and Q1 2010-Q3 2011...........................................................4 Spending on Accommodation ....................................................................................................5 Table 1.2: Number of Nights Spent in Accommodation and Expenditure on Accommodation in the UK by UK and Overseas Residents (million and m), 2009-2011............................................................5 Room Occupancy............................................................................................................................6 Table 1.3: Annual UK Hotel Room Occupancy (%), 2007-2011............................................6 Hotel Performance.........................................................................................................................7 Table 1.4: Percentage of Nights Spent and Expenditure on Hotels, Motels and Guest Houses and Other Accommodation in the UK by UK and Overseas Residents (%) 2009 and 2010................................................................................................................................7 Regionalisation of the UK Hotel Market..................................................................................8 Table 1.5: RevPAR, ADR and Occupancy of Full-Service Hotels by UK Region ( and %), 2011....................................................................................................8 Budget Hotels.................................................................................................................................8 2012 Olympic Games.....................................................................................................................9
ECONOMIC TRENDS....................................................................................................................9
Population.......................................................................................................................................9 Table 1.6: UK Resident Population Estimates by Sex (000), Mid-Years 2007-2011.........10 Gross Domestic Product..............................................................................................................10 Table 1.7: UK Gross Domestic Product at Current and Annual Chain-Linked Prices (m), 2007-2011............................................................................................................................11
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Figure 1.1: UK Gross Domestic Product at Current and Annual Chain-Linked Prices (m), 2007-2011.......................................................................................11 Inflation.........................................................................................................................................12 Table 1.8: UK Rate of Inflation (%), 2007-2011.....................................................................12 Unemployment.............................................................................................................................12 Table 1.9: Actual Number of Unemployed Persons in the UK (million), 2007-2011.......13 Figure 1.2: Actual Number of Unemployed Persons in the UK (million), 2007-2011...................................................................................................13 Household Disposable Income..................................................................................................14 Table 1.10: UK Household Disposable Income Per Capita (), 2007-2011........................14
MARKET POSITION....................................................................................................................14
The UK............................................................................................................................................14 Table 1.11: Indices of UK Gross Domestic Product, Household Expenditure and Hotel Turnover at Current Prices (index 2007=100), 2007-2011....................................................15 Overseas.........................................................................................................................................15
2. Market Size
16
THE TOTAL MARKET................................................................................................................16

Table 2.1: The UK Hotels Market by Value at Current Prices (m), 2007-2011...............16 Figure 2.1: The UK Hotels Market by Value at Current Prices (m), 2007-2011..............17
BY MARKET SECTOR.................................................................................................................17
Corporate .....................................................................................................................................17 Table 2.2: The Proportion of UK Tourism Visits Accounted for by Business Travellers (%), ..................................................................................................18 Table 2.3: Domestic Business Travel in the UK by Purpose of Trip (million and m), 2009-2011.........................................................................................18 Table 2.4: Overseas Business Travel in the UK by Purpose of Trip (million and m), 2009-2011.........................................................................................20 Consumer ......................................................................................................................................21 Table 2.5: Domestic UK Consumer Tourism by Purpose of Trip (million and m), 2009-2011.........................................................................................21
3. Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats
23
STRENGTHS..................................................................................................................................23 WEAKNESSES..............................................................................................................................23 OPPORTUNITIES.........................................................................................................................24 THREATS.......................................................................................................................................24
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Contents
4. Current Issues
25
ENCOURAGING TOURISM.......................................................................................................25
VAT on Hotel Accommodation.................................................................................................25 Tourism Regulation Taskforce...................................................................................................25
MAJOR EVENTS .........................................................................................................................26

London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games.......................................................................26 Queens Diamond Jubilee..........................................................................................................27
STAYCATIONS...........................................................................................................................27
5. Forecasts
29
INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................................................29
Population.....................................................................................................................................29 Table 5.1: Forecast UK Resident Population by Sex (000), Mid-Years 2012-2016...........29 Gross Domestic Product..............................................................................................................29 Table 5.2: Forecast UK Growth in Gross Domestic Product in Real Terms (%), 2012-2016....................................................................................................30 Inflation.........................................................................................................................................30 Table 5.3: Forecast UK Rate of Inflation (%), 2012-2016.....................................................30 Unemployment.............................................................................................................................31 Table 5.4: Forecast Actual Number of Unemployed Persons in the UK (million), 2012-2016...................................................................................................31 Figure 5.1: Forecast and Actual Number of Unemployed Persons in the UK (million), 2007-2016...................................................................................................32
FORECASTS 2012 TO 2016......................................................................................................32

Table 5.5: The Forecast UK Hotels Market by Value at Current Prices (m), 2012-2016.............................................................................................33
MARKET GROWTH....................................................................................................................33
Figure 5.2: The Forecast and Actual UK Hotels Market by Value at Current Prices (m), 2007-2016............................................................................33
FUTURE TRENDS.........................................................................................................................34
London 2012 Olympics Legacy..................................................................................................34 Competitor Developments.........................................................................................................34 Tourism Trends.............................................................................................................................34
6. Company Profiles
36
ACCOR UK BUSINESS & LEISURE HOTELS LTD.................................................................37 GUOMAN HOTELS LTD............................................................................................................39 HILTON INTERNATIONAL HOTELS (UK) LTD.....................................................................41
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INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC.........................................................................43 MARRIOTT HOTELS LTD..........................................................................................................45 MILLENNIUM & COPTHORNE HOTELS PLC........................................................................47 PREMIER INN HOTELS LTD......................................................................................................49 TRAVELODGE HOTELS LTD.....................................................................................................51
7. Further Sources
53
Associations.................................................................................................................................53 Publications.................................................................................................................................53 Government Publications ......................................................................................................54 Other Sources.............................................................................................................................55 Key Note Sources ......................................................................................................................55
Key Note Research The Key Note Range of Reports
57 58
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Executive Summary
Executive Summary
In 2011, Key Note estimates that the UK hotel industry increased in value by 4.5%. This healthy growth in the value of the hotel industry follows 2 years of decline, in which the market was significantly impacted by the economic recession in the UK, and the effect of the global economic downturn on international tourism. The increase in 2011, however, was insufficient to off-set the declines experienced in 2009 and 2010. The hotel market is currently driven by the performance of the city of London, with the capital experiencing considerably higher rates of occupancy and revenue per available room (RevPAR) than regional hotels. Rising levels of domestic tourism have also boosted the UK hotel market, with large numbers of UK residents either switching from overseas holidays to domestic vacations, or increasing the number of short domestic vacations they take. Falling levels of international tourism have been an issue for hotel operators, with 3 consecutive years of decline in the number of international arrivals in the UK. This trend, however, looks set to be reversed in 2011, with growth in the number of international visitors recorded for the first three quarters of 2011 compared with the same period in 2010. This, along with governmental focus on removing barriers to international tourism in the UK, should provide a positive environment for the hotel industry. In 2012, Key Note forecast significant growth in the hotel market, with major events, such as the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games and the Queens Diamond Jubilee celebrations expected to draw an influx of international visitors and domestic short-breaks. These events also provide the UK with a huge opportunity to advertise itself as a key tourist destination, with significant global television audiences expected throughout the Olympics and, to a lesser extent, the Diamond Jubilee. However, many in the hotel industry expect a hangover effect from the Olympics in 2013. Therefore, Key Note forecast growth in 2013 to be subdued, followed by steady increases as the economy continues its recovery.
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Market Definition
1. Market Definition
REPORT COVERAGE
This Key Note Market Update analyses the UK hotel industry, which can be divided into a range of sectors. For the purposes of this report, the market is divided between the corporate and consumer sectors, distinguished as business travel and leisure travel, respectively. Recently, quality standards within the accommodation industry were harmonised between the AA, VisitEngland, VisitScoland and Wales Tourist Board. Following the harmonisation, accommodation is assessed by the AA under three broad categories, each consisting of sub-categories. The categories include Hotel, Guest Accommodation and Budget Hotel.
Hotel Categories
According to the AA, hotels can be divided into the following categories: Hotel a hotel is a formal accommodation, which offers full hotel services. Country House Hotel a hotel with ample grounds or gardens set in a rural or semi-rural situation; the property has an emphasis on peace and quiet. Small Hotel smaller establishments having a maximum of 20 bedrooms, which are usually personally run by the proprietor. Town House Hotel a high-quality property of distinctive style with a maximum of 50 bedrooms, set in a town or city centre; possibly serves no dinner, but room service is available instead. Metro Hotel a town or city property providing full hotel services except dinner, close to a range of places to eat.
Guest Accommodation Categories

The AA also divides other paid guest accommodation establishments into categories: Bed and Breakfast (B&B) accommodation provided in a private house by the owner for up to six paying guests. Guest House accommodation for more than six paying guests, with the owner and staff providing more services, e.g. dinner. Farmhouse B&B or guest house accommodation provided on a working farm. Inn accommodation provided in a fully licensed establishment. The bar will be open to non-residents and provide food in the evening.
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Market Definition
Restaurant with Rooms a restaurant offering a maximum of 12 bedrooms. Guest Accommodation any establishment that meets the minimum entry requirements set by the AA can choose this general category. Hotels or guest accommodation assessed by the AA are rated under a set of common quality standards agreed by the AA and the UK tourist authorities. Any operator can choose to be classified in a different category as long as it meets the criteria defined by the AA.
Other Terminology
The hotel market uses a number of terms, including: Room occupancy rates the percentage of rooms in active use over a given period Bedspace occupancy the percentage of bedspaces in active use over a given period Room rate the amount charged for an overnight stay in a hotel room Revenue per available room (RevPAR) revenue per available room, calculated by dividing revenue by the number of available rooms over a given period.
MARKET SECTORS
Corporate
The corporate sector concerns accommodation purchased by business and for business travel purposes. The sector also includes the purchase of accommodation for meetings, incentives, conferences and exhibitions (MICE).
Consumer
The consumer sector refers to accommodation purchased by consumers for non-business purposes. The sector also concerns the use of hotel facilities for non-business purposes, such as the use of health and fitness services.
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Market Definition
MARKET TRENDS
The Importance of Tourism
The UK hotel market is dependent on both international and domestic tourism for the majority of demand. There is, therefore, a direct correlation between performance in the UK tourism industry and the UK hotel market. The UK tourism industry is currently affected by a number of trends, the most important of which continues to be the economic climate, both within the UK and internationally.
Tourism Trends
Overseas tourism accounts for a significant portion of demand in the UK hotel market, accounting for 20% of all tourism in the UK in 2010. Between 2007 and 2010, the number of visits by overseas residents has declined steadily, with a reduction of 900,000 visits in 2008 in comparison to the previous year, followed by a further reduction of 2 million visits in 2009. In 2010, this decline had slowed, with just 100,000 fewer visits than in 2009. The majority of this decline is attributable to a reduction in the number of business visits to the UK by overseas residents, with 19% less business visits in 2009 compared to the previous year.
Table 1.1: Overseas Residents Visits to the UK and Expenditure in the UK (million, m and ), 2007-2010 and Q1 2010-Q3 2011
Number of Visits (million) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010 Q1-Q3 2011 Q1-Q3 32.8 31.9 29.9 29.8 22.6 23.5 Expenditure (m) 15,960 16,323 16,592 16,889 12,677 13,529 Average Expenditure per Visit () 487 512 555 567 561 576
Note: 2011 figures are provisional, at current prices and exclude Northern Ireland.
Source: International Passenger Survey 2011, Overseas Travel and Tourism Q3 2011 Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO (and the Queens Printer for Scotland)
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Market Definition
Provisional statistics for the first three quarters of 2011 suggest that this downward trend was reversed in 2011, with an increase of 900,000 (4%) visits recorded when compared to the first three quarters of 2010. The final quarter for 2011 should also provide improved performance over quarter 4 2010. With the UK experiencing a relatively mild winter, travelling conditions to, and within, the UK will have been much improved over the final quarter in 2010, where adverse weather conditions forced the closure of many airports and train lines.
Spending on Accommodation
The increase in the number of visits by overseas residents experienced in the first three quarters of 2011, compared with the same period in 2010, is a trend that continues in terms of the amount of nights and total expenditure spent on the hotel market. For overseas residents, the number of nights spent in the UK increased by 5.1% during Q1-Q3 2011, when compared to Q1-Q3 2010. Similarly, UK earnings from overseas residents increased by 6.7% over the same period.
Table 1.2: Number of Nights Spent in Accommodation and Expenditure on Accommodation in the UK by UK and Overseas Residents (million and m), 2009-2011
Nights (million) Q1-Q3 2009 UK residents Overseas residents 2010 2010 Q1-Q3 2011 2009 2010 Expenditure (m) Q1-Q3 2010 Q1-Q3 2011
399 229
373 228
290 177
307 186
21,881 16,592
20,835 16,889
15,592 12,677
17,815 13,529
Note: 2011 figures are provisional and exclude data from Northern Ireland.
Source: UK Tourism Survey 2010 and International Passenger Survey, Overseas Travel and Tourism Q3 2011, National Statistics Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO (and the Queens Printer for Scotland)
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Market Definition
Following a decline in the number of nights spent on domestic trips in 2010, UK residents also experienced increases in the first three quarters of 2011. In Q1-Q3 2011, UK residents spent 17 million more nights in hotels than in the same period in 2010, representing an increase of 5.9%. Expenditure by UK residents also increased, rising by 14.3% in 2011 (Q1-Q3), from 15.59bn in 2010 (Q1-Q3) to 17.82bn in 2011.
Room Occupancy
Room occupancy concerns the proportion of rooms provided by accommodation services which are filled by consumers and is, therefore, a key performance indicator (KPI) for the hotel market. According to the UK Occupancy Survey for Services Accommodation 2010, hotel room occupancy fell by 5 percentage points between 2007 and 2009, before improving in 2010 by 3 percentage points to 65%. For 2011, UK occupancy rates were not available at the time writing, although statistics for England were available for the full year. Based on the occupancy rates for England in 2011, Key Note estimates that the occupancy rate for the UK in 2011 reached 67%. With the rest of the UK expected to experience similar rates to England, UK occupancy is forecast to return to pre-recession levels. The latest figures available for the UK (for November 2011), indicate that these estimates should be taken with caution. In November 2011, room occupancy rates for all accommodation services in the UK including B&Bs and guest houses etc. were 66%, returning to the same rate experienced in November 2007, prior to the economic downturn.
Table 1.3: Annual UK Hotel Room Occupancy (%), 2007-2011
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e

e Key Note estimates, based on England occupancy rates for 2011
67 64 62 65 67
Source: UK Occupancy Survey for Serviced Accommodation, Annual Summary 2010/England Occupancy Survey, December 2011, VisitEngland/Key Note
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Market Definition
Hotel Performance
Between 2009 and 2010, the proportion of nights spent in and expenditure on hotels from both UK and overseas residents increased, at the expense of alternative accommodation. It should be noted that the figures from Table 1.4 have been revised since the publication of the previous Key Note Market Report Plus. Between 2009 and 2010, the number of nights spent in hotels, motels or guest houses by UK residents increased by 4.3%, while expenditure increased by 2.2%. The number of nights spent in hotels, motels or guest houses by overseas residents also grew by 8.3%, with expenditure growing by the same amount over the same period. According to HotStats from TRI Hospitality Consulting, similar results emerged, with both the average daily rate (ADR) and revenue per available room (RevPAR) increasing for full-service hotels by 4% and 6.2%, respectively. In 2011, this growth continued, with a rise of 0.3% ADR and a 1.3% increase in RevPAR recorded for England (excluding London), while in London ADR and RevPAR increased by 6.9% and 6%, respectively. The number of UK residents in other accommodation fell by 1.3% between 2009 and 2010, while the number by overseas residents in other accommodation fell by 2.6%. Expenditure by the two groups on other accommodation fell by 1.9% and 7.7%, respectively.
Table 1.4: Percentage of Nights Spent and Expenditure on Hotels, Motels and Guest Houses and Other Accommodation in the UK by UK and Overseas Residents (%) 2009 and 2010
Nights (%) 2009 UK Residents Hotel, motel or guest house Other accommodation Overseas Residents Hotel, motel or guest house Other accommodation 24 76 26 74 48 52 52 48 23 77 24 76 46 54 47 53 2010 Expenditure (%) 2009 2010
Source: The UK Tourist 2009 and 2010, VisitEngland and International Passenger Survey 2010, National Statistics Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO (and the Queens Printer for Scotland)
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Market Definition
Regionalisation of the UK Hotel Market

Regional differences with the UK market can be provided by an examination of KPIs, namely RevPAR, ADR and occupancy.
Table 1.5: RevPAR, ADR and Occupancy of Full-Service Hotels by UK Region ( and %), 2011
RevPAR () London England Scotland Wales 106.52 45.82 56.70 47.26 ADR () 131.15 66.82 77.03 68.36 Occupancy (%) 81.2 68.6 73.6 69.1
RevPAR revenue per available room ADR average daily rate
Source: UK HotStats 2012, TRI Hospitality Consulting
For full-service hotels, London-based hotels performed the best throughout the KPIs. Londons RevPAR was significantly more than Scotlands, and more than double that of the hotels in Wales and all of England, at 106.52 in 2011. Scotlands hotels had the second highest RevPAR at 56.70, largely due to popularity of Edinburgh as a tourist destination. Wales performed slightly better than England as a whole, with the countries recording RevPARs of 47.26 and 45.82, respectively. Across the whole of the UK, RevPAR amounted to 66.68 in 2010. The ADR for London hotels is also considerably higher than the rest of the UK, with average daily rates amounting to 131.15, almost double that of Wales and England. Scotland charged the second highest ADR at 77.03, again outperforming England and Wales. London also outperformed the rest of the UK in terms of occupancy rate reaching 81.2%, compared to 73.6% in Scotland, 69.1% in Wales, and 68.6% in England.
Budget Hotels
The growing budget hotel sector continues to be a dominant trend in the hotel market. In 2011, approximately 7,100 hotel rooms were added by the budget sector, representing 59.8% of the total number of rooms added in 2011, according to the British Hospitality Association (BHA). This trend is expected to continue in 2012, with 14,575 additional budget hotel rooms planned, accounting for 67.6% of the total.
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Market Definition
However, despite the increasing number, budget brands represent just 15.8% of the UK hotel market, compared with 24% in France and 32.8% in the US. Also, competition in the UK budget sector is fierce particularly between the two main competitors, Premier Inn and Travelodge which has led to a decline in the average room price, offsetting the 3.9% increase in room occupancy experienced in 2011.
2012 Olympic Games

The 2012 London Olympic and Paralympic Games will inevitably involve an influx of overseas visitors to the UK, providing increased demand in the hotel market. This expected demand is reflected in the level investment from hotel operators for 2011 and 2012. In 2011, according to the BHAs annual publication British Hospitality: Trends and Developments, 11,883 hotel rooms were added to the UK market, a year-on-year increase of 14% on 2010, when the number of new hotel rooms had declined by 4.1% on the previous year. In 2012, 21,552 additional hotel rooms are expected to be introduced although a number of these will be postponed or even cancelled representing an increase of 81.4% in the number of new hotel rooms, compared to 2011. The majority of these are aiming to be completed before the Games. While this is expected to benefit the UK as a whole, the majority of demand derived from Olympics, however, will be concentrated in London, with approximately 9,000 of the total number of new hotel rooms expected in 2012 to be introduced in the Greater London region, representing around 41.8% of new capacity.
ECONOMIC TRENDS
Population
Population growth remained steady between 2007 and 2011, with yearly increases ranging between 0.6% and 0.8%. Overall, in 2011, the population was projected to have increased by 1.7 million since 2007, a rise of 2.9% to 62.7 million people in 2011. A rising population inevitably increases potential demand in the UK hotel market.
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Market Definition
Table 1.6: UK Resident Population Estimates by Sex (000), Mid-Years 2007-2011

2007 Female Male 31,068 29,918 2008 31,244 30,154 2009 31,418 30,374 2010 31,619 30,643
2011
31,833 30,902
Total % change year-on-year
60,986 -
61,398 0.7
61,792 0.6
62,262 0.8
62,735 0.8
taken from National Population Projections
Source: Population Estimated for UK, England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland Population Estimates Time series 1971 to Current Year, December 2011/National Population Projections, 2010-based projections, National Statistics website Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO (and the Queens Printer for Scotland)
Gross Domestic Product

In 2008, the UKs GDP increased at a relatively subdued rate of 2% at current prices, compared to the previous year, as the impact of the economic downturn was felt. This was followed by a decline of 2.8% in 2009, as the UK entered an economic recession. In 2010, GDP growth was more significant, rising by 5% at current prices; however, GDP growth slowed somewhat in 2011, increasing by 3% at current prices. Growth in UK GDP, in both 2010 and 2011 should indicate increasing consumer confidence and improved lending conditions.
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Market Definition
Table 1.7: UK Gross Domestic Product at Current and Annual Chain-Linked Prices (m), 2007-2011
2007 Current prices % change year-on-year Annual chain-linked GDP % change year-on-year
GDP gross domestic product
2008 1,433,870 2.0
2009 1,393,854 -2.8
2010 1,463,734 5.0
2011 1,507,585 3.0
1,405,796 -
1,449,861 -
1,433,871 -1.1
1,371,163 -4.4
1,399,850 2.1
1,409,015 0.7
Source: United Kingdom Economic Accounts, March 2012, National Statistics website Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO (and the Queens Printer for Scotland)
Figure 1.1: UK Gross Domestic Product at Current and Annual Chain-Linked Prices (m), 2007-2011
Current prices 1,500,000 Annual chain-linked GDP
1,475,000
1,450,000
1,425,000
1,400,000
1,375,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
GDP gross domestic product
Source: United Kingdom Economic Accounts, March 2012, National Statistics website Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO (and the Queens Printer for Scotland)/Key Note
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Market Definition
Inflation
With the onset of the global economic downturn, the UK inflation rate began to decline in 2008, falling from 4.3% in 2007 to 4% in 2008. In 2009, due to the economic recession, deflation stood at a low of 0.5%. In 2010, with the UK exiting recession in the last months of 2009, inflation increased to 4.6%. This was followed by a further rise in 2011 of 0.6 percentage points to reach a rate of 5.2%. Consistently high inflation rates typically result in increasing costs for almost all business, affecting the price of food, energy and land, important commodities for the UK hotel market.
Table 1.8: UK Rate of Inflation (%), 2007-2011

2007 Inflation (%) Percentage point change year-on-year 4.3 2008 4.0 -0.3 2009 -0.5 -4.5 2010 4.6 5.1 2011 5.2 0.6
Note: inflation is at retail price index (RPI); data shown are annual averages.
Source: Consumer Price Indices, January 2012, National Statistics website Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO (and the Queens Printer for Scotland)
Unemployment
Between 2007 and 2009, unemployment increased significantly, rising by 5.8% in 2008 and 68.1% in 2009, to reach 1.53 million claimants. In 2010, unemployment fell by 2%, although this was offset by a further 2% increase in the number claimants in 2011, leaving unemployment at 1.53 million claimants in 2011. The considerable increase in unemployment will have reduced the ability of many consumers to take holidays, as well as reducing consumer confidence, deterring many from increasing their expenditure. However, the adverse economic conditions are expected to have provided a boost in UK domestic tourism, with people looking to take their breaks on home turf.
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Market Definition
Table 1.9: Actual Number of Unemployed Persons in the UK (million), 2007-2011

2007 Actual number of claimants (million) % change year-on-year 2008 2009 2010 2011
0.86 -
0.91 5.8
1.53 68.1
1.5 -2.0
1.53 2.0
Note: claimant count measures the number of people claiming Jobseekers Allowance.
Source: Labour Market Statistics, February 2012, National Statistics website Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO (and the Queens Printer for Scotland)
The sharp increase witnessed in UK unemployment is illustrated in Figure 1.2, below.
Figure 1.2: Actual Number of Unemployed Persons in the UK (million), 2007-2011

1.60 1.55 1.50 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.30 1.25 1.20 1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Labour Market Statistics, February 2012, National Statistics website Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO (and the Queens Printer for Scotland)/Key Note
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Market Definition
Household Disposable Income

UK household disposable income rose annually between 2007 and 2010, with an increase of 3% seen in 2008, followed by slightly subdued growth in 2009 of just 2.4%, and a rise of 3.1% in 2010. Between 2010 and 2011, growth in household disposable income slowed, to an increase of just 1.9%. Rising household disposable income is a good indication for UK hotels, allowing for increased expenditure on holidays and other non-necessities.
Table 1.10: UK Household Disposable Income Per Capita (), 2007-2011

2007 Household disposable income () % change year-on-year 2008 2009 2010 2011
14,469 -
14,904 3.0
15,263 2.4
15,731 3.1
16,034 1.9
Source: United Kingdom Economic Accounts, March 2012, National Statistics website Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO (and the Queens Printer for Scotland)
MARKET POSITION
The UK
In 2009, with the impact of economic recession in the UK and the global economic crises, the hotel turnover index fell sharply, dropping by 11 points. In 2010, this decline continued, with a further 1 point decline recorded. In 2011, the hotel market is estimated to have recovered somewhat, although this recovery was insufficient to offset the decline seen in previous years, with the index in 2011 3 points below 2007 rates. Both weekly household expenditure and GDP experienced similar declines, with the indices of each falling by 1 point below 2007 levels in 2009. However, GPD and household expenditure were also quicker to recover, with GDP in 2011 standing at an estimated 8 points above 2007 rates, and household expenditure up 6 points. With low consumer confidence being witnessed in recent years, there will likely be a lag before growth in household expenditure and GDP translates into growth in hotel expenditure.
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Market Definition
Table 1.11: Indices of UK Gross Domestic Product, Household Expenditure and Hotel Turnover at Current Prices (index 2007=100), 2007-2011
Gross Domestic Product 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e
e Key Note estimates
Household Expenditure 100 103 99 103 106
Hotel Turnover 100 105 94 93 97
100 102 99 104 108
Source: Key Note, base on data from National Statistics Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO (and the Queens Printer for Scotland)/Key Note
Overseas
The hotel market is an international one, with the majority of all major brands maintaining businesses in the UK, particularly in London. Recently, a number of UK hotel operators have expanded overseas, with operators such as Guoman Hotels Ltd expanding its operations in the Asian-Pacific region, with hotels opened in Shanghai and Malaysia.
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Market Size
2. Market Size
THE TOTAL MARKET
Following a growth of 5.3% in 2008, the UK hotel market declined, experiencing a contraction of 10.6% in 2009, as the economic downturn affected overseas and domestic consumer spending. According to National Statistics Turnover and Orders in Production and Services Industries publication, the entire accommodation services industry experienced a decline of 4.6% in 2010, but owing to considerable improvements in Londons hotel market, Key Note estimated that the decline in the hotel market was slightly below this level, at 1.6% in 2010. In 2011, the accommodation services industry experienced a significant increase, allowing for an estimated increase in the hotel market of 4.5%, increasing to 14.59bn in 2011.
Table 2.1: The UK Hotels Market by Value at Current Prices (m), 2007-2011
2007 Value (m) % change year-on-year
e Key Note estimates
2008 15,864 5.3
2009 14,186 -10.6
e2010
e2011
15,064 -
13,959 -1.6
14,587 4.5
Source: Distributive and Service Trades, December 2009 and Turnover and Orders in Production and Services Industries, December 2011 Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO (and the Queens Printer for Scotland)/Key Note
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Market Size
Figure 2.1: The UK Hotels Market by Value at Current Prices (m), 2007-2011
16,000 15,750 15,500 15,250 15,000 14,750 14,500 14,250 14,000 13,750 13,500
20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11
Note: 2010 and 2011 are Key Note estimates.
Source: Distributive and Service Trades, December 2009 and Turnover and Orders in Production and Services Industries, December 2011 Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO (and the Queens Printer for Scotland)/Key Note
BY MARKET SECTOR
Corporate
Corporate travel is a major source of demand for the UK hotel industry. Hotels are able to charge premium prices to corporate customers as businesses typically have stricter needs and business tourism is generally less subject to fluctuations caused by exchange rate changes and other factors that tend to influence leisure tourism. There is growing demand for long-term relationships between hotel operators and businesses, with many operators introducing corporate accounts in order to facilitate repeat business.
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Market Size
Table 2.2: The Proportion of UK Tourism Visits Accounted for by Business Travellers (%),
UK Residents 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
percentage for Quarters 1-3 2011
Overseas Residents 27.0 25.5 22.0 22.8 22.9
15.2 15.5 14.2 14.2 13.9
Source: UK Tourism Survey, 2008-2010 and Great Britain Tourism Survey 2011 VisitBritain, and International Passenger Survey Q3 2011, National Statistics Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO (and the Queens Printer for Scotland)
According to VisitBritains Great Britain Tourism Survey (formerly the UK Tourism Survey), business tourism accounted for 13.9% of all domestic visits between Q1-Q3 2011. In comparison, for the same period in 2010, business tourism represented 13.4% of all domestic visits. In terms of UK visits from overseas residents, business tourism accounted for 22.9% of all visits for the first three quarters of 2011, up from 22.3% for the same period in 2010. Growth in the provisional figures for the first three quarters of 2011 is a positive factor for the hotel market, indicating a certain amount of recovery within the business tourism segment.
Table 2.3: Domestic Business Travel in the UK by Purpose of Trip (million and m), 2009-2011
2009 Trips (million) Conference Trade fair/exhibition Paid work/on business Total 1.7 0.7 15.5
18.0
2010 1.3 0.5 15.1 16.9
e2011
1.4 0.6 16.8 18.8
Table continues...
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Market Size
Table 2.3: Domestic Business Travel in the UK by Purpose of Trip (million and m), 2009-2011
...table continued
2009 Nights Spent (million) Conference Trade fair/exhibition Paid work/on business Total Expenditure (m) Conference Trade fair/exhibition Paid work/on business Total 400 221 3,714
4,336
2010 2.4 1.2 35.4

39.1
e2011
4.4 1.5 36.3 42.2
2.6 1.3 38.2 42.1
263 100 3,522 3,885
314 119 4,206 4,639
e Key Note estimates, based on data for Quarters 1-3 2011 does not sum due to rounding.
Source: UK Tourism Survey 2009 and 2010, and Great Britain Tourism Survey 2011 VisitBritain, and International Passenger Survey Q3 2011/Key Note
Both the number of nights spent in the UK by domestic business tourists, and the expenditure by these tourists, experienced a recovery in Q1-Q3 2011, compared with the same period in 2010. The number of nights is forecast to increase by 3 million in 2011, representing a rise of 7.7% on 2010, while expenditure from business tourism is expected to rise by 19.4%, from 3.89bn in 2010 to 4.64bn in 2011. With over a fifth (22.9%) of all overseas visits to the UK accounted for by business tourism in the UK, for Q1-3 2011, a significant proportion of demand for the UK hotel market is derived from corporate consumers. Like business trips from domestic travellers, the majority of business trips by overseas travellers are classified under the category of other business (classified as paid work/on business for domestic travellers). An estimated 5.9 million trips were categorised as other business in 2011, accounting for 81.9% of all overseas corporate trips.
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Market Size
Similar to domestic business tourism, overseas business tourism has also experienced considerable growth in the number of nights spent and in terms of expenditure, for Q1-Q3 2011. Key Note estimates that this will translate to a yearly increase of 4.4 million (15.5%) in the number of nights spent in the UK by overseas business tourists for the full 2011 year, while expenditure is estimated to rise by 11.4%, from 4.04bn in 2010 to 4.5bn in 2011.
Table 2.4: Overseas Business Travel in the UK by Purpose of Trip (million and m), 2009-2011
2009 Trips (million) Conference/large meeting Trade fair/exhibition Other business Total Nights Spent (million) Conference/large meeting Trade fair/exhibition Other business Total Expenditure (m) Conference/large meeting Trade fair/exhibition Other business Total 691 147 2,849
3,686
2010 1.0 0.2 5.6 6.8
e2011
0.9 0.2 5.5 6.6
1.1 0.3 5.9

7.2
3.7 0.7 22.5

27.0
4.0 0.9 23.5

28.3
4.6 1.0 27.1 32.7
789 178 3,069

4,037
879 198 3,418

4,497
e Key Note estimates, based on data for Quarters 1-3 2011 does not sum due to rounding
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Market Size
Consumer
The consumer sector consists of all leisure visits to the UK. There has been a marked increase in the number of domestic leisure trips within the UK in recent years, a trend largely driven by the recession, with domestic tourism seen as a cost-effective alternative to overseas holidays. Despite this trend, there was a decline in domestic consumer tourism in 2010, with the number of visits falling by 6.6% on 2009. However, this is expected to be largely offset by considerable rises estimated for 2011, a trend already experienced in the first three quarters of 2011. The number of trips made by domestic consumer tourists in the UK is expected to reach 83.3 million in 2011, an increase of 5.8% on 2010. The number of nights spent in accommodation for leisure vacations is estimated to have grown by 5% on 2010, while expenditure is expected to have increased by 13.4% over the same period.
Table 2.5: Domestic UK Consumer Tourism by Purpose of Trip (million and m), 2009-2011
2009 Trips (million) Holiday Visits to friends and relatives Total Nights Spent (million) Holiday Visits to friends and relatives Total 222.5 76.1
298.5
2010 56.6 22.1 78.7
e2011
60.7 23.7
84.3
60.0 23.3 83.3
202.8 70.1
273.0
214.2 72.4 286.6
Table continues...
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Market Size
Table 2.5: Domestic UK Consumer Tourism by Purpose of Trip (million and m), 2009-2011
...table continued
2009 Expenditure (m) Holiday Visits to friends and relatives Total 12,612 2,583
15,194
2010 12,072 2,572 14,644
e2011
13,738 2,873 16,611
e Key Note estimates, based on data for Quarters 1-3 2011 does not sum due to rounding
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Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats
3. Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats

STRENGTHS
According to the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), the UK had the sixth highest number of international tourist arrivals, behind France, the US, the Peoples Republic of China (PRC), Spain and Italy. London remains top of the Global Financial Centres Index (GFCI), a former City of London Corporation publication. The index, compiled by Z/Yen, is a ranking of the competitiveness of financial centres. This continues to provide the capital, and hotels, with demand from global businesses. According to the British Hospitality Associations (BHA) 2011 annual publication British Hospitality: Trends and Developments, London has had a 30-year average of 77% occupancy rates for hotel bedrooms. This consistently high rate of occupancy is indicative of the constant demand for hotels in London. Britains numerous cultural and historical attractions, particularly in London, ensure that the UK remains an extremely popular leisure-tourism destination. The UK hosts numerous international sporting events, such as the upcoming Olympic and Paralympic Games, the Commonwealth games, football, cricket and tennis tournaments, among others, providing additional impetus for tourism. Approximately 40% of all hotel room stock in central London has already been booked out by the London Organising Committee of the Olympic and Paralympic Games (LOCOG). Domestic tourism has experienced growth in recent years, with economic recession hindering consumers ability or willingness to travel abroad. Internet bookings have provided the industry with additional convenience features for consumers, with the majority of hotels now offering such services.
WEAKNESSES
The UK is perceived as an expensive place to visit, an image exacerbated by rising inflation. This is likely to deter a large proportion of potential leisure tourism. VAT (value-added tax) on hotel accommodation currently stands at 20% in the UK, considerably higher than almost all other European countries. In comparison, VAT in France is 5.5%, while in Germany it stands at 7%, and in Italy 10%. This reduces the UKs competitiveness with the rest of the Europe.
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Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats
According to the World Travel Market 2011 Industry Report, over a third (38%) of all British people did not take a holiday in 2010. This figure is unlikely to decline significantly until economic conditions improve considerably and consumer confidence is restored.
OPPORTUNITIES
An estimated 380,000 international visitors will require hotel accommodation in and around London during the Olympic and Paralympic Games in summer 2012. The currently Coalition Government has highlighted the tourism industry as vital to the recovery of the UK holiday market, announcing a 19.8m investment in VisitEngland in 2010, and the provision of 27m to VisitBritain in November 2011. The Government also formed the Tourism Regulation Taskforce, which, in January 2012, recommended a number of measures to implement in order to reduce the barriers to tourism in the UK, such as amendments to the visa controls, greater recognition of tourism in the planning process, and a reform of the fire safety and health and safety regulations. The Queens Diamond Jubilee in 2010 could provide rising demand for UK domestic tourism. The budget hotels sector is relatively small in the UK, accounted for 15.8% of the total UK hotel market, compared with 24% in France and 32.8% in the US, indicating a slightly underdeveloped budget hotel sector in the UK.
THREATS
The growing budget hotels sector, although relatively underdeveloped, is likely to have an adverse affect on many independently-owned hotels, which could struggle to compete as the UK market becomes more budget focused. Increasing financial pressures, such as the rising costs of food and energy, along with tough lending conditions, are likely to affect the independent hotels sector more than the brand businesses. Despite the Governments commitment to facilitate increasing levels of tourism, it remains reluctant to removing some of the more obvious barriers to tourism in the UK, such as VAT on hotel accommodation. Due to the continued economic troubles or planning delays, an estimated 7,000 hotel rooms failed to be completed in 2011. This suggests continuing issues in the UK hotel market concerning fund-raising and planning-permission problems. Improving video conferencing facilities, and other such technologies, could threaten the corporate tourism segment, potentially reducing the need to physically attend meetings.
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Current Issues
4. Current Issues
ENCOURAGING TOURISM
VAT on Hotel Accommodation
The UK currently has one the highest value-added tax (VAT) rates on hospitality services in Europe. The 20% VAT rate on hotel accommodation services is the second-highest in the EU, on par with Slovakia and behind Denmark (25%). In comparison, countries such as Italy (10%), the Republic of Ireland (9%), France (5.5%) and Germany (7%), have a significantly lower VAT rates than the UK. This, the British Hospitality Association (BHA) argues, reduces the competitiveness of the UK tourism industry, particularly in a period in which global financial instability has already had a huge impact on international tourism. In 2011, the BHA along with the British Association of Leisure Parks, Piers and Attractions (BALPPA), the Federation of Small Business and Tourism Alliance, and a number of independent hotel and tourist attraction operators lobbied Government to reduce the VAT rate for visitor accommodation, attractions, and out-of-home meals to 5%. The coalition of lobbyists point to a report commissioned by Bourne Leisure and Merlin Entertainments, undertaken by Deloitte and Tourism Respect in 2011, which indicated that a reduction in VAT on visitor accommodation and attractions would generate 78,000 jobs, and achieve a financial gain of 2.6bn over 10 years, driving further investment. In March 2012, the BHA and leaders of the hospitality and visitor attraction industry wrote directly to the Chancellor concerning the proposed 5% VAT rate for the tourism industry. In the letter to George Osborne ahead of the budget, signatories called for the reduced VAT rate for tourism and hospitality businesses, primarily on overnight accommodations and entrance to attractions. Signatories of the letter included the BHA, Merlin Entertainment, Bourne Leisure Group Ltd, Best Western GB, Whitbread, Hilton Worldwide, ACCOR UK-IRL, Blackpool Pleasure Beach, the BALPPA and Travelodge.
Tourism Regulation Taskforce

Although the Government seems somewhat reluctant to reduce VAT rates for the tourism industry, it has highlighted the tourism industry as one of the key areas to provide growth and economic recovery in the UK. In 2011, the Government commissioned the Tourism Regulation Taskforce in order to highlight ways in which to encourage increasing numbers of tourism to the UK. In January 2012, the Tourism Regulation Taskforce published numerous proposals, including amendments to visa controls, greater recognition of tourism in the planning process, and reform of the fire safety and health and safety regulations.
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Current Issues
The report highlighted planning and safety regulations as one of the vital methods of removing barriers for growth in tourism, indicating that often regulations introduced by one Government department conflict with those of another, and that regulators rarely grasped the difficulties small independent businesses face when implementing complex new regulations. For visas, the report indicated that the cost and documentary requirements of gaining a visa were the biggest barriers for tourism. The taskforce recommended visa requirements for tourist should be lifted under the visa waiver test process, and a guaranteed processing time should be implemented, while it has also been suggested that the requirements and supporting documents for visas should be reduced. The report, Smart Regulations and Economic Growth: Seizing the Tourism Opportunity, is now under review by central Government.
MAJOR EVENTS
London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games
With both the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games and the Queens Diamond Jubilee scheduled for summer 2012, the number of visitors to the UK is estimated to reach 30.7 million in 2012, with those visitors expected to spend around 17.6bn across the UK. While these figures are similar to the number expected in 2011, VisitBritain highlights the importance of maintaining current visitor levels in the current global economic climate. According the BHA, it has been estimated that approximately 380,000 international visitors will require hotel accommodation during the Olympic and Paralympic Games in 2012. On top of this, over 30% of all room stock in Central London has already been booked across a range of markets by the London Organising Committee of the Olympic and Paralympic Games (LOCOG) for officials, sponsors and the media. However, the impact on hotels throughout the rest of the UK remains uncertain. Visitor numbers will likely be boosted by a number of events hosted in locations outside of the capital, with areas such as Cardiff, Newcastle, Manchester, Glasgow, Weymouth and Coventry expected to profit from the Games although it is unlikely that the Olympics will have a major impact on such areas. Despite many positives, there seems to be a disparity among hoteliers surrounding the Olympics, with just 29.8% of London hotel managers agreeing that the Games would be the primary factor influencing the growth of their business, according to HotStats. However, while this is smaller than expected, it was a leading factor, slightly ahead of revenue management (25.5%).
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Current Issues
Queens Diamond Jubilee

According to TravelClick, London hotels are expected to receive a boost in the number of bookings for the weekend of the Queens Diamond Jubilee celebrations. As of March 2012, committed occupancy levels across London for Sunday 3rd June 2012 when the Thames Diamond Jubilee Pageant will take place are up 115% compared to last year. Similarly, on the following day, bookings are currently up 81% compared with the same day in 2011. The data, which is gathered from travel agents, online booking sites and hotel chains, indicates high levels of demand for the large spectator events for the Jubilee, with many visitors intending to stay in the Capital for the entire weekend, rather than embarking on day trips. The event also provides added opportunities for Britain to advertise itself, with global media coverage expected, shortly before the start of the Olympics in July.
STAYCATIONS
The trend toward domestic holiday breaks in the UK has recently become an important one within the industry. In 2009, with economic recession in the UK and the wider, global financial climate, there were unprecedented levels of domestic holidays in the UK. Conversely, the number of overseas holidays taken by UK residents receded. This trend, according to VisitEngland, has continued in 2010 and 2011, and looks set to continue into 2012. Since the influx of domestic holidaymakers in 2009, VisitEngland commissioned the Staycation Tracker, an online survey of 1,000 British adults aged 18 and over. The original survey found the trend towards domestic holidays was driven by two groups, the so-called switchers, who substituted a domestic holiday for one they would have otherwise taken abroad, and extras, who took more domestic holidays than usual. The latest survey undertaken in autumn 2011 found that, following a slight dip on 2009 levels, the number of staycation holidays remained the same in 2011 as 2010. From the 1,000 respondents, 69% indicated they had taken or will take a holiday in England, compared to 51% for holidays abroad. In comparison, the same percentage was recorded for 2010 in domestic tourism, while 55% of respondents had taken an overseas holiday. The majority of domestic holidays in 2011 will be for 1-to-3-night vacations, with 58% taking such holidays, while 31% will be taking 4-to-7-night trips, and just 5% taking 8 nights or over. For overseas trips, the majority of holidays will be for 8 nights and over (29% of respondents) followed by 4 to 7 nights (28%), and 1 to 3 nights (12%). The survey indicates that the majority of UK domestic holidays are for short breaks, while the reverse is true for holidays abroad.
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Current Issues
For 2012, 70% of respondents are expecting to take a holiday in England, up 1 percentage points on 2011, while 59% expect to take a holiday abroad. The number of respondents expecting to take domestic holidays lasting over 8 days in 2012 also increased by 3 percentage points on 2011. The number of respondents expecting to take 4-to-7-night holidays also increased by 3 percentage points, while the number expecting to take 1-to-3-night holidays declined by 2 percentage points. The reasons respondents are more likely to take a domestic break in 2012, similar to previous years, were cost and the economy; the opportunity to go somewhere new in the UK; and to explore the UK, with 47%, 44% and 39% indicating these motivations, respectively. The trend towards the staycation is clearly positive for the UK hotel market, particularly in regards to the large number of respondents taking short breaks (1 to 3 days), with hotels in the best position to offer accommodation to such vacationers.
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Forecasts
5. Forecasts
INTRODUCTION
Population
The UK population is forecast to rise by 0.8% year-on-year between 2012 and 2016, increasing to 65.3 million by 2016. The proportion of female residents remains higher than that of males, and is forecast to increase at a marginally faster rate of 3.5%, compared with 2.9%, over the 5-year period. Consistent growth in population is a positive factor, stimulating increasing future demand across all markets, including the hotels sector.
Table 5.1: Forecast UK Resident Population by Sex (000), Mid-Years 2012-2016

2012 Female Male 32,065 31,179 2013 32,301 31,457 2014 32,537 31,734 2015 32,770 32,006 2016 33,000 32,271
Total % change year-on-year
63,244 0.8
63,758 0.8
64,271 0.8
64,776 0.8
65,271 0.8
Source: National Population Projections, 2010-based projections, National Statistics website Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO (and the Queens Printer for Scotland)
Gross Domestic Product

Growth in the UKs gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to remain relatively subdued in 2012, when an increase of 0.7% is forecast. From 2013, increasingly substantial growth is forecast, with growth of 1.7% anticipated in 2013, followed by more consistent growth in GDP between 2014 and 2016, ranging from 2.1% to 2.4%. Rising growth in GDP indicates improving economic conditions, which should help growth in employment levels and disposable incomes, a positive factor for the UK hotel market.
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Forecasts
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has forecast that the economy will contract in Q1 2012, which could take the UK back into recession. However, latest figures from National Statistics indicate that the service sector grew by 0.2% in January 2012 when compared with December 2011, attributing this growth to deliveries, restaurants and hotels, primarily.
Table 5.2: Forecast UK Growth in Gross Domestic Product in Real Terms (%), 2012-2016
2012 Gross domestic product growth (%) Percentage point change year-on-year 2013 2014 2015 2016
0.7 -
1.7 1.0
2.1 0.4
2.4 0.3
2.4 0.0
Source: Forecasts for the UK Economy, February 2012, Treasury Independent Average Crown copyright
Inflation
In 2012 and 2013, relatively significant declines in the UK rate of inflation are expected, falling to 4% and 2.9%, respectively. Following a slight increase in 2014, to reach a rate of 3%, UK inflation is forecast to stabilise at a rate of 3.5% in 2015 through to 2016. This decline from the comparatively high rate of inflation in 2011 (5.2%) should allow for reduced operating costs for hotel operators and increased consumer confidence.
Table 5.3: Forecast UK Rate of Inflation (%), 2012-2016

2012 Inflation (%) Percentage point change year-on-year 4.0 -1.2 2013 2.9 -1.1 2014 3.0 0.1 2015 3.5 0.5 2016 3.5 0.0
Note: inflation is at retail price index (RPI).
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Unemployment
The recent upward trend in the number of unemployed persons is expected to continue in 2012 and 2013, with rises of 8.5% and 3%, forecast respectively, to reach 1.71 million in 2013. From 2014, unemployment is forecast to fall, declining by 2.9%, before more significant decreases in 2015 (6%) and 2016 (7.1%), to reach 1.45 million persons in 2016, still significantly higher than pre-recession levels. The forecast reduction in unemployment is a positive indication for the hotel market and is likely to increase consumer confidence, which could help domestic tourism levels.
Table 5.4: Forecast Actual Number of Unemployed Persons in the UK (million), 2012-2016
2012 Actual number of claimants (million) % change year-on-year 2013 2014 2015 2016
1.66 8.5
1.71 3.0
1.66 -2.9
1.56 -6.0
1.45 -7.1
Figure 5.1, below, illustrates the increase in unemployment in the UK since 2007, before the UK was struck by an economic recession. Although unemployment rates are forecast to settle over the coming 5 years, they are expected to remain significantly higher than in pre-recession times.
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Forecasts
Figure 5.1: Forecast and Actual Number of Unemployed Persons in the UK (million), 2007-2016
1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Forecasts for the UK Economy, February 2012, Treasury Independent Average Crown copyright/Key Note
FORECASTS 2012 TO 2016

Following on from 2011, significant growth is forecast for the UK hotel market in 2012, and the industry is expected to increase by 5.1%, with the London Olympic and Paralympic Games providing the majority of this growth. In 2013, however, subdued growth is forecast, with many in the industry, particularly in London, expecting a hangover affect as the room occupancy rates fall in comparison to the Olympic year. Growth rates in 2013 may also be affected by the high levels of investment in new hotel rooms in 2012, with an increase of 81.4% witnessed in the number of new hotel rooms forecast compared with 2011. This could reduce room occupancy rates, which in turn may affect room prices and revenue per available room (RevPAR) rates. Following the 1.1% increase forecast for 2013, steady growth is forecast as the UK economy continues its recovery, with forecast increases of 1.9% expected in 2014 and 2.9% in 2015, before a rise 3.5% in 2016 to reach a market value of 16.82bn.
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Table 5.5: The Forecast UK Hotels Market by Value at Current Prices (m), 2012-2016
2012 Value (m) % change year-on-year Source: Key Note 15,331 5.1 2013 15,499 1.1 2014 15,793 1.9 2015 16,250 2.9 2016 16,818 3.5
MARKET GROWTH
Overall, the value of the UK hotel market is forecast to increase by 11.6% between 2007 and 2016, rising from 15.06bn to 16.82bn. Recent growth in 2011, along with the expected boost provided by the London Olympic and Paralympic Games and subsequent growth as the UKs economy recovers, is expected to off-set the loss caused by the economic recession between 2008 and 2010.
Figure 5.2: The Forecast and Actual UK Hotels Market by Value at Current Prices (m), 2007-2016
17,000 16,500 16,000 15,500 15,000 14,500 14,000 13,500 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Key Note
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FUTURE TRENDS
London 2012 Olympics Legacy
The London Olympic and Paralympic Games are forecast to provide long-term benefits to UK tourism in a variety of ways, in addition to the influx of international visitors during and around the Games. VisitBritain estimates that there will be approximately 4.6 million additional overseas visitors to the UK, generating around 2.3bn in extra visitor expenditure, as a direct consequence of successfully hosting the Games. These visitors will be generated largely from overseas nationals motivated to visit the UK and London due to the publicity afforded by the Games, along with the Queens Diamond Jubilee in June. With estimated global television audiences of approximately 4 billion, VisitBritain plans to launch a massive marketing campaign, leveraging the huge attention of the 2012 Games and the Diamond Jubilee, and funded by a public/private marketing fund of 100m.
Competitor Developments
Confidence within the hotel market appears to be fairly high for 2012, with a huge increase in the number of new hotel rooms forecast for 2012 by the British Hospitality Association (BHA). The BHA forecasts that 21,552 new hotel rooms will be introduced in 2012 a record number up by 81.4% on the number of new rooms added in 2011 (11,883). Much of this increase is attributable to the Olympic and Paralympic Games, with many hotel operators, particularly in London, looking to expand their offerings before the influx of international visitors in the summer. However, not all these rooms will be completed before the Games. With improved occupancy levels and RevPAR posted in 2011, at least for the first 3 quarters, along with growth in domestic and international tourism, many hotel operators are committed to expansion due to improving market conditions, rather than in anticipation of the Olympics.
Tourism Trends
According to the United Nations World Tourism Organisations (UNWTO) long-term tourism forecasts, international tourist arrivals will grow by 80% to reach 1.8 billion by 2030, with an average increase of 3.3% expected per year between 2010 and 2030. Europes current global share of international arrivals is forecast to decline, from 51% in 2010 to 41% by 2030, while the Asian-Pacific region is expected to increase its share by 8 percentage points to 30%. Elsewhere, the Americas share is expected to fall from 16% to 14%, while the Middle Eastern and African regions are forecast to increase their share by 2 percentage points each, rising to 8% and 7%, respectively.
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Forecasts
In terms of outbound tourism, Europe will continue to be the biggest source of tourism, with 832 million outbound tourists expected in 2030, compared with 509 million in 2010. Asia and the Pacific, already the second largest source market for international arrivals, is forecast to generate an extra 17 million outbound tourists each year, a year-on-year growth of 5% to reach 541 million in 2030, up from 204 million in 2010. With Asia and the Pacific representing the fastest growing market for outbound tourists, the UK will need to remove certain barriers for Asian-Pacific tourists, particularly in regard to visa requirements.
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Company Profiles
6. Company Profiles
INTRODUCTION
The following section contains financial profiles of some of the principal companies identified as operating within the market sector discussed in this report. The financial results of some of the important names within the sector may not be reported if: their principal activities are so varied that their results are not considered applicable to the survey they are no longer trading as separate companies their financial data are very out of date.
DEFINITIONS
A company which has a Y consolidated value has filed consolidated accounts for the relevant year. denotes that the growth rate calculation is invalid, because the figures either move from positive to negative or from negative to positive.
Turnover (Sales)
This includes all income derived from the principal activities of the firm, net of VAT. It encompasses UK sales, exports and overseas and intercompany sales.
Pre-Tax Profit
The net trading profit figure after deduction of all operating expenses, including depreciation and finance charges but before deduction of tax, dividends, subventions or group relief, and other appropriations. Where applicable, it will include the share of profits and losses of associated companies. Items described by the company as exceptional are included; extraordinary items are excluded.
Profit Margin
Pre-tax profit expressed as a percentage of sales.
Average Remuneration
Total employee remuneration divided by the number of employees.
Sales per Employee

Sales divided by the number of employees.
FURTHER INFORMATION
For more detailed financial information telephone Key Note on: 0845-504 0452.
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Company Profiles
ACCOR UK BUSINESS & LEISURE HOTELS LTD

Registered Office 1 Shortlands Hammersmith W6 8DR Telephone: 020-8237 7474 01016187 30/06/71 Accor (UK) Ltd Accor SA
Company Registration Number Date of Incorporation Holding Company Ultimate Holding Company
Previous Name(s) and Date(s) of Change

Novotel (UK) Ltd (28/09/99)
Principal Activities
The development and management of hotels.
SIC Code
55111, Licensed hotels and motels.
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FINANCIAL PROFILE
Year End Weeks Consolidated 31/12/10 52 N 31/12/09 52 N 31/12/08 52 N 31/12/07 52 N
Sales
Sales (000) % change year-on-year Exports (000) Exports/Sales (%) 202,819 7.28 189,064 -4.64 198,258 2.01 194,346 -
Profits
Pre-Tax Profit (000) % change year-on-year Profit Margin (%) Operating Profit (000) 24,272 -44.15 11.97 20,667 43,458 15.80 22.99 -11,818 37,528 -78.00 18.93 22,270 170,604 87.78 34,737
Employees
Number of Employees Average Employee Remuneration () Sales per Employee () Profit per Employee () Capital Employed per Employee () 2,182 18,520 92,951 11,124 61,048 2,179 17,583 86,766 19,944 97,844 4,124 9,822 48,074 9,100 53,754 4,290 9,508 45,302 39,768 44,764
Balance Sheet/Ratios
Capital Employed (000) Return on Capital (%) Net Worth (000) Current Ratio Liquidity Ratio 133,206 18.22 127,956 1.71 1.70 213,202 20.38 207,485 2.32 2.31 221,680 16.93 215,497 1.78 1.77 192,037 88.84 185,387 1.50 1.49
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Company Profiles
GUOMAN HOTELS LTD

Registered Office Po Box 909 Bath Road Uxbridge Middlesex UB8 9FH Telephone: 020-7723 8383 00262958 25/02/32 Guoman Hotel Holdings Ltd Hong Leong Co. (Malaysia) Berhad

Thistle Hotels Ltd (16/05/07) Thistle Hotels PLC (17/07/03) Mount Charlotte Investments PLC (21/12/95)
A group engaged in the ownership and operation of hotels.
SIC Code
55111, Licensed hotel and motels.
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Company Profiles
FINANCIAL PROFILE
Year End Weeks Consolidated 03/07/11 53 Y 27/06/10 52 Y 28/06/09 52 Y 29/06/08 52 Y
Sales
Sales (000) % change year-on-year Exports (000) Exports/Sales (%) 224,608 12.57 199,532 0.46 198,612 -9.90 220,432 -
Profits
Pre-Tax Profits (000) % change year-on-year Profit Margin (%) Operating Profit (000) 8,525 530.08 3.80 100,592 1,353 -11.16 0.68 85,409 1,523 -97.73 0.77 23,625 67,068 30.43 38,277
Employees
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Company Profiles
HILTON INTERNATIONAL HOTELS (UK) LTD

Registered Office Maple Court Central Park Reeds Crescent Watford Herts WD24 4QQ 00695283 12/06/61 Hilton International Co Bh Hotels Holdco LLC

Hilton Hotels (UK) Ltd (31/12/77)
Hotel proprietors.
SIC Code
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Company Profiles
FINANCIAL PROFILE
Sales
Sales (000) % change year-on-year Exports (000) Exports/Sales (%) 61,132 8.49 56,347 -5.09 59,368 2.22 58,076 -
Profits
Pre-Tax Profits (000) % change year-on-year Profit Margin (%) Operating Profit (000) -109,683 -270.60 -179.42 -68,428 64,293 -114.47 114.10 110,156 -444,288 268.30 -748.36 -340,702 -120,632 -207.71 9,250
Employees
Number of Employees Average Employee Remuneration () Sales per Employee () Profit per Employee () Capital Employed per Employee () -
Capital Employed (000) Return on Capital (%) Net Worth (000) Current Ratio Liquidity Ratio 46,529 -235.73 6,429 0.07 0.07 156,028 41.21 115,928 0.08 0.08 91,650 -484.77 51,550 0.07 0.07 536,796 -22.47 496,696 0.10 0.10
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Company Profiles
INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC

Registered Office Broadwater Park Denham Middlesex UB9 5HR 05134420 21/05/04 None None

New Intercontinental Hotels Group PLC (27/06/05) New Intercontinental Hotels Group Ltd (27/04/05) Hackremco (No. 2154) Ltd (24/03/05)
A group engaged in the management, ownership, operation and franchising and leasing of hotels and resorts.
SIC Codes
55111, Licensed hotels and motels. 70209, Other letting of own property. 74849, Other business activities not elsewhere classified. 30320, Management of real estate on a fee or contract basis.
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Hotels
Company Profiles
FINANCIAL PROFILE
Sales
Sales (000) % change year-on-year Exports (000) Exports/Sales (%) 1,628,000 5.85 1,498,000 92.01 1,538,000 -18.92 1,413,000 91.87 1,897,000 7.11 1,724,000 90.88 1,771,000 1,771,000 100.00
Profits
Pre-Tax Profits (000) % change year-on-year Profit Margin (%) Operating Profit (000) 397,000 24.39 459,000 -64,000 -4.16 -10,000 316,000 -28.83 16.66 417,000 444,000 25.07 534,000
Employees
Number of Employees Average Employee Remuneration () Sales per Employee () Profit per Employee () Capital Employed per Employee () 7,858 68,083 207,177 50,522 236,065 7,556 58,364 203,547 -8,470 243,515 7,949 69,065 238,646 39,753 248,711 8,674 67,558 204,173 51,187 274,960
Capital Employed (000) Return on Capital (%) Net Worth (000) Current Ratio Liquidity Ratio 1,855,000 21.40 -74,000 0.51 0.50 1,840,000 -3.48 -207,000 0.40 0.39 1,977,000 15.98 -451,000 0.66 0.66 2,385,000 18.62 -464,000 0.67 0.66
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Company Profiles
MARRIOTT HOTELS LTD

Registered Office 7 Albemarle Street London W1S 4HQ Telephone: 01582-434 000 01235583 28/11/75 Marriott Hotels and Catering (Holdings) Ltd Marriott International Inc

None
The management of hotels.
SIC Code
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Company Profiles
FINANCIAL PROFILE
Sales
Profits
Pre-Tax Profits (000) % change year-on-year Profit Margin (%) Operating Profit (000) 137 0.09 193 -569 -0.36 -288 652 -0.91 0.44 908 658 0.44 1,059
Employees
Number of Employees Average Employee Remuneration () Sales per Employee () Profit per Employee () Capital Employed per Employee () 9,912 13,615 16,118 14 538 8,801 15,238 17,997 -65 582 8,465 14,763 17,659 77 658 9,304 13,490 16,209 71 525
Capital Employed (000) Return on Capital (%) Net Worth (000) Current Ratio Liquidity Ratio 5,333 2.57 5,134 1.36 1.36 5,121 -11.11 4,923 0.77 0.77 5,569 11.71 5,569 1.29 1.29 4,881 13.48 4,840 1.28 1.28
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Company Profiles
MILLENNIUM & COPTHORNE HOTELS PLC

Registered Office Victoria House Victoria Road Horley Surrey RH6 7AF Telephone: 01293-772 288 03004377 22/12/94 Singapura Developments Private Ltd Hong Leong Investment Holdings Pte. Ltd

Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Ltd (27/03/96) Millennium Hotels (UK) Ltd (14/11/95)
A group engaged in the ownership, management and operation of hotels and in the development and sale of land and properties and property investment.
SIC Code
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Company Profiles
FINANCIAL PROFILE
Sales
Sales (000) % change year-on-year Exports (000) Exports/Sales (%) 743,700 13.72 602,000 80.95 654,000 -6.96 517,300 79.10 702,900 4.97 609,100 86.66 669,600 577,600 86.26
Profits
Pre-Tax Profits (000) % change year-on-year Profit Margin (%) Operating Profit (000) 128,600 57.02 17.29 118,900 81,900 -20.33 12.52 89,200 102,800 -34.69 14.63 112,800 157,400 23.51 171,500
Employees
Capital Employed (000) Return on Capital (%) Net Worth (000) Current Ratio Liquidity Ratio 2,876,400 4.47 1,947,500 1.39 1.38 2,498,200 3.28 1,752,300 1.05 1.03 2,686,400 3.83 1,737,500 1.40 1.12 2,168,400 7.26 1,423,500 1.22 0.91
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Company Profiles
PREMIER INN HOTELS LTD

Registered Office Whitbread Court Houghton Hall Business Park Porz Avenue Dunstable Bedfordshire LU5 5XE 05137608 25/05/04 P I Hotels Ltd Whitbread PLC

Premier Travel Inn Ltd (16/07/07) Premier Lodge Newco Ltd (29/07/04) Trushelfco (No.3047) Ltd (24/06/04)
The operation of Premier Inn hotels.
SIC Codes
55111, Licensed hotels and motels. 55301, Licensed restaurants.
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Company Profiles
FINANCIAL PROFILE
Sales
Profits
Pre-Tax Profits (000) % change year-on-year Profit Margin (%) Operating Profit (000) 13,651 15.62 11,997 -3,636 -7.93 7,048 -27,983 -82.82 -2,710 409,229 256.52 435,457
Employees
Number of Employees Average Employee Remuneration () Sales per Employee () Profit per Employee () Capital Employed per Employee () 3 29,126,000 4,550,333 3,433 14,949 46,470 119,204 197,659
Capital Employed (000) Return on Capital (%) Net Worth (000) Current Ratio Liquidity Ratio 532,346 2.56 512,108 1.37 1.37 511,051 -0.70 496,327 1.45 1.45 576,951 -4.85 560,097 1.57 1.57 678,562 60.31 672,718 2.12 2.12
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Company Profiles
TRAVELODGE HOTELS LTD

Registered Office Sleepy Hollow, Aylesbury Road Thame Oxon, OX9 3AT Telephone: 01352-780 952 00769170 29/07/63 Full Moon Holdco 6 Ltd Dubai International Capital LLP

Travelrest Services Ltd (30/03/04) Forte (UK) Ltd (05/12/01) Trusthouse Forte (UK) Ltd (03/06/91) Trusthouse Forte Airport Services Ltd (27/01/84) Aeroclean Ltd, (31/12/78)
The operation of hotels and catering units.
SIC Codes
55111, Licensed hotels and motels. 22302, Unlicensed restaurants and cafs.
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Company Profiles
FINANCIAL PROFILE
Sales
Sales (000) % change year-on-year Exports (000) Exports/Sales (%) 331,700 12.67 294,400 2.58 287,000 18.84 241,500 -
Profits
Pre-Tax Profits (000) % change year-on-year Profit Margin (%) Operating Profit (000) 14,600 -78.05 4.40 2,800 66,500 664.37 22.59 -300 8,700 -47.59 3.03 14,600 16,600 6.87 19,800
Employees
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Hotels
Further Sources
7. Further Sources
Associations
British Association of Leisure Parks, Piers and Attractions Suite 12 37 Tanner Street London, SE1 3LF Telephone: 020-7403 4455 Fax: 020-7403 4022 E-mail: info@balppa.org http://www.balppa.org British Hospitality Association Queens House 55-56 Lincolns Inn Fields London, WC2A 3BH Telephone: 020-7404 7744 Fax: 020-7404 7799 E-mail: bha@bha.org.uk http://www.bha.org.uk
Publications
UK HotStats 2011 TRI Hospitality Consulting 88 Baker Street London, W1U 6TQ Telephone: 020-7486 5191 Fax: 020-7486 1189 E-mail: info@trihc.com http://www.trihospitality.com VisitBritain 1 Palace Street London, SW1E 5HX Telephone: 020-7578 1000 http://www.visitbritain.com Great Britain Tourism Survey 2011 The UK Tourist 2009 and 2010 UK Tourism Survey 2008, 2009 and 2010 VisitEngland 1 Palace Street London, SW1E 5HX Telephone: 020-7578 1400 Fax: 020-7578 1401 http://www.enjoyengland.com England Occupancy Survey December 2011 The Staycation: 2011 and Beyond, Autumn 2011 UK Occupancy Survey for Services Accommodation, Annual Summary 2010 World Travel Market 2011 Industry Report World Travel Market http://www.wtmlondon.com
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Further Sources
Government Publications
HM Treasury 1 Horse Guards Road London, SW1A 2HQ Telephone: 020-7270 4558 Fax: 020-7270 4861 http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk Forecasts for the UK Economy-Treasury Independent Average, February 2012 National Statistics 1 Myddelton Street London, EC1R 1UW Telephone: 0845-601 3034 Fax: 01633-652 747 E-mail: info@statistics.gov.uk http://www.statistics.gov.uk Consumer Price Indices, January 2012 Distributive and Service Trades, December 2009 Labour Market Statistics, February 2012 National Population Projections, 2010-based projections Overseas Travel and Tourism, Q3 2011 Population Estimated for UK, England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland Population Estimates Time series 1971 to Current Year, December 2011 Turnover and Orders in the Production and Services Industries, December 2011 United Kingdom Economic Accounts, December 2011 Tourism Regulation Taskforce Department for Culture Media and Sport 2-4 Cockspur Street London, SW1Y 5DH Telephone: enquiries@culture.gov.uk http://www.culture.gov.uk Smart Regulation and Economic Growth: Seizing the Tourism Opportunity
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Further Sources
Other Sources
TravelClick Wesley House Bull Hill Leatherhead Surrey, KT22 7AH Telephone: 01372-860 830 Fax: 01372-353 364 http://www.travelclick.com United Nations World Tourism Organisation Capitn Haya 42 28020, Madrid Spain Telephone: 00349-1567 8100 Fax: 00349-1571 3733 E-mail: omt@unwto.org http://www.unwto.org
Key Note Sources

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Concentrating on more dynamic consumer markets, these offer the same incisive market intelligence as Market Reports, but include additional chapters and primary research data.
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Key Note is a leading supplier of market information, publishing an extensive range of consumer, industrial, business-to-business and services titles. With over 30 years experience, Key Note represents clear, concise, quality market information. For all reports, Key Note undertakes various types of research: Online searching is carried out by product code or free search method, and covers the period from the last edition of the report to the current day. Trade sources, such as trade associations, trade journals and specific company contacts, are invaluable to the Key Note research process. Secondary data are provided by Kantar Media (TGI) and Nielsen for consumer/demographic information and advertising expenditure, respectively. In addition, various official publications published by National Statistics, etc. are used for essential background data and market trends. Interviews are undertaken by Key Note for various reports, either face-to-face or by telephone. This provides qualitative data (industry comment) to enhance the statistics in reports; questionnaires may also be used. Field research is commissioned for various consumer reports and market reviews, and is carried out by NEMS Market Research. Key Note estimates are derived from statistical analysis and trade research carried out by experienced research analysts. Up-to-date figures are inserted where possible, although there will be some instances where a realistic estimate cannot be made or external sources request that we do not update their figures. Key Note Editorial, 2012
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The Key Note Range of Reports

Key Note publishes over 180 titles each year, across both the Key Note and Market Assessment product ranges. The total range covers consumer, lifestyle, financial services and industrial sectors.
Title Edition Published Title C Edition Published
Key Note Current Reports A

ABC1 Consumer Access Control Accountancy Activity Holidays Advertising Agencies Airlines Airports Update All-Inclusive Holidays Alternative Healthcare Arts & Media Sponsorship Automatic Vending Automotive Services Autoparts
B
C2DE Consumer 6 12 15 5 5 22 15 2 6 4 25 8 19 2 5 15 23 19 21 4 18 27 15 29 16 5 17 11 14 11 2 15 6 2010 2011 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2012 2010 2011 2011 2012 2009 2011 2010 2011 2010 2012 2011 2010 2012 2012 2011 2012 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2008 2012 2011 Canned Foods Care Homes Carpets & Floorcoverings Catering Equipment Catering Market Charity Funding Chemical Industry Childcare Childrens Publishing Childrenswear Chilled Foods China & Earthenware Update Cigarettes & Tobacco Closed-Circuit Television Clothing & Footwear Industry Clothing Manufacturing Clothing Retailing Coffee & Sandwich Shops Commercial Dynamics in Financial Services Commercial Insurance for Small Businesses Commercial Vehicles Computer Hardware Computer Services Computer Software Condiments and Sauces Confectionery Construction Industry Consumer Credit & Debt Consumer Magazines Contact Centres Contraception Contract Catering & Foodservice Management Contract Cleaning Cooking & Eating Habits Cooking Sauces & Food Seasonings Corporate Hospitality
6 18 1 16 14 21 4 14 6 3 9 16 28 25 13 13 16 8 7 4 4 16 9 10 8 5 30 11 6 18 8 5 21 21 6 5 7
2010 2011 2011 2009 2011 2009 2011 2011 2011 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2010 2011 2011 2012 2010 2012 2011 2011 2012 2011 2008 2012 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2010 2009 2012 2012
B2B Marketing Baby Products Baths & Sanitaryware Betting & Gaming Biscuits & Cakes Book Publishing Book Retailing on the Internet Bookselling Bread & Bakery Products Breakfast Cereals Breweries & the Beer Market Bricks & Tiles Bridalwear Builders Merchants Building Contracting Building Materials Bus & Coach Operators Business Postal Services Business Press Business Travel
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Title
Edition
Published
Title F
Edition
Published
Corporate & Promotional Giftware Cosmetic Surgery Cosmetics & Fragrances Courier & Express Services Cruise Market Customer Magazines Customer Relationship Management Customer Services in Financial Organisations
D
4 9 24 16 3 5 4 5
2011 2011 2011 2010 2012 2012 2008 2010
Fast-Food & Home-Delivery Outlets Film Market Financial Services Marketing to BCs Financial Services Marketing to DEs Financial Services Marketing to Start-Up Businesses and the SelfEmployed Financial Services Marketing to the Affluent Financial Services Organisations on the Internet Fire Protection Equipment Fish & Fish Products Food Industry Football Clubs & Finance Footwear Forecourt Retailing Franchising Freight Forwarding Frozen Foods Fruit & Vegetables Fruit Juices & Health Drinks Functional Foods Further & Higher Education
G
25 2 1
2011 2009 2009 2009
3 1 4 9 14 20 4 17 8 13 18 25 22 13 6 7 14 6 13 20 16 5 27 5 15 11 6 5 4 20 14 17 6 26 19
2010 2009 2009 2012 2010 2010 2009 2012 2010 2012 2011 2011 2011 2010 2010 2011 2012 2011 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2012 2011 2011 2008 2011 2012 2011
Debt Management (Commercial & Consumer) Defence Equipment Diet Foods Digital Broadcasting Digital Communications Direct Insurance Direct Marketing Direct Mortgages Discount Retailing Disposable Paper Products Distribution Industry DIY & Home Improvements Industry Domestic Heating Drinks Market
E
6 11 4 5 2 6 20 8 8 13 10 11 14 19
2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2010 2012 2012 2011 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009
E-Commerce: The Internet Grocery Market E-Commerce: The Internet Leisure & Entertainment Market Electrical Contracting Electrical Wholesale Electricity Industry Electronic Banking Energy Industry Equipment for the Disabled E-Recruitment Estate Agents Estate Agents and Services Ethnic Foods European Long-Term Insurance European Renewable Energy European Short Breaks European Telecommunications European Tourist Attractions European Trends in Food Shoppin Exhibitions & Conferences
Garden Equipment 6 5 10 5 7 4 8 5 4 18 5 16 4 2 2 3 3 4 12 2009 2008 2011 2009 2011 2008 2010 2009 2012 2011 2010 2011 2008 2008 2008 2010 2010 2009 2011 Gas Industry General Insurance Giftware Glassware Green & Ethical Consumer Greetings Cards Grey Consumer
H
Hand Luggage & Leather Goods Health Clubs & Leisure Centres Healthy Eating Holiday Purchasing Patterns Home Entertainment Home Furnishings Home Shopping Horticultural Retailing Hot Beverages Hotels Housebuilding
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Title
Edition
Published
Title N
Edition
Published
Household Appliances (Brown Goods) Household Appliances (White Goods) Household Detergents & Cleaners Household Furniture
I
12 17
2011 2011 2010
Newspapers Non-Food Sales in Supermarkets Non-Metal Recycling Nutraceuticals

O
19 5 3 3 9 22 5 18 5 7 15 1 13 6 13 13 15 16 6 4 4 4 6 1 4 4 6 10 16 22 7 27 13 8 12 11 11 4 25 17 22 2
2012 2010 2010 2008 2010 2012 2009 2011 2010 2010 2011 2009 2010 2010 2008 2012 2010 2012 2009 2010 2008 2009 2008 2008 2011 2009 2012 2012 2011 2011 2009 2011 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2009 2009
19
2011
Office Equipment Industry Office Furniture 15 4 13 10 2 1 7 6 10 14 26 7 10 3 3 5 10 3 5 3 22 17 6 6 6 24 1 8 4 12 2 2011 2008 2012 2009 2008 2011 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2009 2011 2010 2010 2011 2011 2010 2008 2009 2011 2009 2012 2012 2011 2010 2009 2012 2011 2008 2010 Offshore Oil & Gas Industry Ophthalmic Goods & Services Opticians & Optical Goods Organic Food & Drink OTC Pharmaceuticals Over-50s Consumer Own Brands
P
Ice Creams & Frozen Desserts Update Independent Financial Advisers Insurance Companies Insurance Industry Insurance Prospects Internet & Telephone Banking Internet Advertising IT Recruitment IT Security IT Training
J
Packaging (Food & Drink) Packaging (Glass) Packaging (Metals & Aerosols) Packaging (Paper & Board) Packaging (Plastics) Pensions Personal Lines Insurance Personal Loans Pet Market Pharmaceuticals Industry Planning for Retirement Plus-Size Fashion Poultry Power Tools Premium Lagers, Beers & Ciders Printing Private Healthcare Protective Clothing & Equipment Public Houses Update Publishing Industry
R
Jewellery & Watches

K
Kitchenware
L
Laboratory Equipment Leisure in the Home Leisure Outside the Home Lifestyle Magazines Lingerie Local Government Services Low-Fat & Reduced-Sugar Foods
M
Marketing in the Digital Age Meat & Meat Products Medical Equipment Men and Womens Buying Habits Mens Toiletries & Fragrances Metal Recycling Milk & Dairy Products Mobile Marketing Mobile Phones Motor Finance Motor Industry Music Industry
Rail Travel Ready Meals Recruitment Agencies (Permanent) Recruitment Agencies (Temporary & Contract) Renewable Energy Restaurants Retail Pharmacies Road Haulage Rural Economy
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Title S
Edition
Published
Title W
Edition
Published
Sauces & Spreads Savings & Investments Security Industry Shopfitting Shopping Centres Singles Market Slimming Market Small Businesses & Banks Small Domestic Electrical Appliances Snack Foods Social Media Marketing Soft Drinks (Carbonated & Concentrated) Soup Market Spirits & Liqueurs Sports Clothing & Footwear Sports Equipment Sports Market Sports Sponsorship Stationery (Personal & Office) Supermarket Own Label Sweet & Salty Snacks
T
13 6 13 15 3 5 4 2 12 21 1 18 4 1 14 17 13 8 26 4 16 18 5 3 20 24 24 20 17 24 5 5 6 1 4 7 7 10 1 7
2012 2010 2010 2012 2008 2012 2011 2010 2010 2012 2010 2011 2012 2010 2012 2012 2010 2011 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012 2011 2011 2011 2010 2012 2010 2012 2008 2012 2011 2009 2010 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011
Wallcoverings & Ceramic Tiles Waste Management Water Industry Windows & Doors Wine Working Women
19 11 6 20 21 5
2012 2011 2011 2010 2011 2009
Key Note Archive Reports

A
Aerospace Agrochemicals & Fertilisers Air Freight Air Transport Logistics Animal Feedstuffs Audio Visual Retailing
B
12 3 2 1 11 1 3 1 2 2 2 10 6 16 9 1 8 1 4 3 12 1 1 3 7 3 2 3 1 4 5
2003 2002 2005 2003 2001 2000 2006 2000 2007 2000 2001 2004 2006 2001 2001 2000 2004 2004 2000 2007 2002 2000 2000 2004 2003 2000 2003 2007 2007 2006 2005
Baby Foods Baths and Showers Bearings Beds, Bedrooms and Upholstered Furniture Bottled Water
C
Cable & Satellite TV Call Centres Cash & Carry Outlets Cinemas & Theatres Clothing Retailers Commercial Radio Consumer Borrowing in Europe Consumer Internet Usage Contracted-Out Services Convenience Retailing Cross-Border Shopping Customer Loyalty in the Financial Services
D
Take-Home Trade Teenage & Pre-Teen Magazines Teenage Fashionwear Timber & Joinery Toiletries Toys & Games Training Travel & Tourism Market Travel Agents & Overseas Tour Operators Trends in Food Shopping Trends in Leisure Activities Tyre Industry
U
Dark Spirits & Liqueurs Defence Industry Design Consultancies Digital TV DINKY Market Document Imaging Systems Domestic Telecommunications Dry Cleaning & Laundry Services
UK Internet Market Utilities

V
Vegetarian Foods Vehicle Breakdown Services Vehicle Security Video Gaming Vitamins, Minerals & Supplements
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Title E
Edition
Published
Title L
Edition
Published
Electronic Component Distribution Electronic Component Manufacturing Electronic Games Equipment Leasing E-Shopping European Electricity Industry European Gas Industry European Oil & Gas Industry European Water Industry Extended Financial Families
F
Leisure & Recreation Market 12 11 4 12 1 3 3 2 3 1 2 11 1 4 1 1 3 11 8 1 1 2 22 10 9 1 2 8 5 8 2 8 2 2 2002 2002 2003 2003 2002 2007 2007 2007 2007 2005 2003 2000 2000 2006 2004 2004 2007 2007 2004 2007 2002 2070 2003 2005 2002 2000 2005 2001 2000 2001 2005 2005 2002 2006 Lighting Equipment
M
15 14 10 3 9 3 2 2 2 3 3 1 2 14 5 2 1 1 14 13 2 10 1 2 1 3 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 4 2 8 1 1
2005 2002 2003 2003 2001 2007 2002 2007 2007 2002 2004 2007 2005 2002 2007 2004 2002 2003 2005 2007 2005 2003 2001 2001 2000 2007 2001 2003 2006 2000 2000 2001 2003 2002 2001 2004 2000 2001 2001
Management Consultants Marketing to Children 4-11 Mechanical Handling Medical & Health Insurance Millenium Youth Mobile Telecommunications
N
Natural Products New Media Marketing

O
Factoring & Invoice Discounting Finance Houses Financial Services Marketing to ABC1s Financial Services Marketing to ABs Financial Services Marketing to C1C2DEs Financial Services Marketing to Over 60s Financial Services Marketing to the Retired and Elderly Fitted Kitchens Free-To-Air TV
G
Off-Trade Spirits Organic Baby & Toddler Care Over-40s Consumer

P
Paper & Board Manufacturers Passenger Travel in the UK Pay TV Pension Extenders Personal Banking Photocopiers & Fax Machines Plant Hire Plastic Cards in Europe Plastics Processing Pre-School Childcare Private-Sector Opportunities in Education Process Plant Industry Public Relations Industry Public Transport
R
Generation Y Global Positioning Systems Global Waste management

H
Health Foods Healthcare Market Heating, Ventilating & Air Conditioning

I
Rail Transport Logistics Railway Industry Recycling and the Environment Retail Credit Retail Development Road Transport Logistics
S
In-Car Entertainment Individual Savings Accounts Industrial Fasteners Industrial Pumps Industrial Valves Internet Service Providers Internet Usage in Business Issues and Challenges in the UK Life Assurance Market Issues in Higher Education Funding
Saving Trends in Eurozone Short Break Holidays Short Breaks Slimming Market Small Office Home Office Consumer Small Office Home Office Products
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Title
Edition
Published
Title
Edition
Published
Sponsorship Supermarket Services Supermarkets & Superstores

T
2 3 20 3 21 2 11 4 1 1 1
2000 2007 2003 2007 2007 2003 2004 2002 2001 2005 2000
The Newspaper Industry Tourist Attractions Tweenagers

V
3 5 1 8 4 1 2 1 3
2005 2001 2001 2005 2007 2003 2000 2005 2007
Teenage Magazines Telecommunications Teleworking The Computer Market The Film Industry The Fish Industry The Legal Services Market The Luggage Market
Video & DVD Retail & Hire Videoconferencing

W
Water Transport Logistics White Goods White Spirits Women over 45
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Market Update 2012

26th Edition April 2012 Edited by Leah Tutt ISBN 978-1-84729-854-6

Key Note Ltd 2012

Key Note Ltd 2012

THE TOTAL MARKET................................................................................................................16

3. Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats

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MAJOR EVENTS .........................................................................................................................26

FORECASTS 2012 TO 2016......................................................................................................32

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Key Note Research The Key Note Range of Reports

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Guest Accommodation Categories

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Table 1.3: Annual UK Hotel Room Occupancy (%), 2007-2011

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e

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Regionalisation of the UK Hotel Market

RevPAR revenue per available room ADR average daily rate

Source: UK HotStats 2012, TRI Hospitality Consulting

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2012 Olympic Games

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Table 1.6: UK Resident Population Estimates by Sex (000), Mid-Years 2007-2011

Total % change year-on-year

taken from National Population Projections

Gross Domestic Product

Key Note Ltd 2012

2008 1,433,870 2.0

2009 1,393,854 -2.8

2010 1,463,734 5.0

2011 1,507,585 3.0

1,375,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

GDP gross domestic product

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Table 1.8: UK Rate of Inflation (%), 2007-2011

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Table 1.9: Actual Number of Unemployed Persons in the UK (million), 2007-2011

The sharp increase witnessed in UK unemployment is illustrated in Figure 1.2, below.

Figure 1.2: Actual Number of Unemployed Persons in the UK (million), 2007-2011

Key Note Ltd 2012

Household Disposable Income

Table 1.10: UK Household Disposable Income Per Capita (), 2007-2011

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Household Expenditure 100 103 99 103 106

Hotel Turnover 100 105 94 93 97

100 102 99 104 108

Key Note Ltd 2012

2008 15,864 5.3

2009 14,186 -10.6

Key Note Ltd 2012

Note: 2010 and 2011 are Key Note estimates.

Key Note Ltd 2012

Overseas Residents 27.0 25.5 22.0 22.8 22.9

15.2 15.5 14.2 14.2 13.9

2010 1.3 0.5 15.1 16.9

1.4 0.6 16.8 18.8

Key Note Ltd 2012