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Drought has taken huge hold Central U.S , NV to DE affected No relief in sight for Corn Belt
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Weather
QT Infor mati on Sy stem s Inc .
From California to Delaware, all states along the 40th parallel are exceedingly dry, ranking in the 1-20th percentile. On the flip side, soil moisture is in the 50-90% percentile ranking across the far North and far South. Some of the driest states are Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Missouri, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland and Delaware, with large portions of these states in the 1-5% percentile soil moisture rankings (9599% of the time wetter than now) as of July 14, 2012.
The early heat has continued into mid-July. The greatest temperature anomalies over the past 30 days (greater than 6 degrees F) have been seen in MT, WY, CO, NE, KS and MO. Also, in S WI, SW MI and parts of SD, IL and IN. Widespread, above normal heating has also been seen from NV to MA. In fact, above normal temperatures have occurred over the past 30 days in all states except the Pacific Coast, Gulf States and SE. Crop and pastureland response to the widespread intensifying drought conditions shows across the nation. Pastureland is indexed to be severe to extreme from NV to MT to W TX with some of the worst crop conditions show in ND, NE, IA, WI, IL, IN, MO, TN, AR, MS, GA and SC. Moist crop responses show inWA and MN, but are only isolated also in parts of E SD, SW IA, SE KS, SW OH, E TX, N FL and SW VA.
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Last year (left map of Palmer Index), abnormally moist conditions were seen (July, 2011), across the West, North and most of the Corn Belt. Last year, drought was limited to the South, being centered in Texas. Now, a year later (June, 2012, right map) drought conditions have improved in TX, but developed over a wider area that last year, across most states in the West, Corn Belt, and Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys. Crop production in some of these areas has been halted with corn going to forage and silage as pastureland continues to dry. The early spring heat and sustained early spring drying has resulted particularly in corn yield being reduced by the USDA from 166 bu/acre to 146 bu/acre as of last week! There is no signs that the Corn Belt drought will improve any time soon, and particularly during the next two to four weeks. In fact, widespread intensification of the drought indices are likely across the Corn Belt for the remainder of July, based on the near term forecast of more abnormal heating (strong evaporation) and below normal rainfall ( further lowering of reservoirs, streams and rivers). The near and longer range outlook has closer to normal rains for the Plains, South and East, but not for most of the Corn Belt (MN, IA, WI, MO, IL, IN, MI, OH). Mondayanother day of crop stressing 100-105F heat from NE and SD to WI and N IL. For the week ahead, above normal readings will remain common across the Plains and Corn Belt, but shift south and west, as a northern front reaches the Great Lakes and N Plains on Wednesday.
Weather
QT Infor mati on Sy stem s
Chicago Board of Trade 141 W. Jackson Blvd., Suite 1255 800.240.8761 ph 312-896-2050 fax www.qtweather.com www.qtinfo.com
The 8-14 day outlooks show more border to border heat (left) and Corn Belt net drying (right). In general, only the C and S Rockies into the C Great Basin and parts of the High Plains and SE see the potential of normal to above normal rain.
Allen Motew