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Renewable Energy
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Energy Potential:
Pakistan has a considerable potential of wind energy in the coastal belt of Sindh, Balochistan and as well as in the desert areas of Punjab and Sindh. This renewable source of energy has however, not so far been utilized significantly. As per the collected data from Pakistan Metrological Department, the coastal belt of Pakistan is blessed with a God gifted wind corridor that is 60 km wide (Gharo ~ Kati Bandar) and 180 km long (up to Hyderabad). This corridor has the exploitable potential of 50,000 MW of electricity generation through wind energy.
Table 1, below shows the monthly average speed for gharo at different heights.
TABLEL 1: MONTHLY AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS FOR GHARO
Month 30m January 4.7 February 5.1 March 5.3 April 7.0 May 8.9 June 10.3 July 8.4 August 9.3 September 7.6 October 4.3 November 3.8 December 4.6 Annual 6.6 Average speed (m/sec)
Monthly Benchmark Wind Speed 50m 60m 67m 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 7.3 7.4 7.6 9.4 9.6 9.7 10.9 11.1 11.2 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.8 10.0 10.2 8.1 8.2 8.3 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.9 5.1 5.2 7.0 7.1 7.2
80m 5.4 5.7 5.9 7.6 9.8 11.3 9.2 10.3 8.4 4.8 4.4 5.3 7.3
85m 5.5 5.8 6 7.7 9.9 11.4 9.3 10.4 8.5 4.9 4.5 5.4 7.4
This wind data was simulated to 50 meters height and it can be seen that wind speed at this height is seldom below 4 m/s. These wind speeds match the hourly summer load in the national grid.
Typical Criteria for Site Selection for Wind Farm: Site Capacity
The first screen is to eliminate all sites that are not expected to have a sufficient wind resource
Land Suitability
An initial land suitability screening will eliminate sites where wind turbines either cannot or should not be installed. Factors that would eliminate a site from consideration include: National parks or airports or other areas officially protected from development Migration routes of migratory bird species Areas with high concentrations of rare or endangered birds Urban areas Some military areas Highly culturally sensitive areas (e.g., religious, historic, or archeological sites).
Soil Conditions
Wind turbine foundations are typically reinforced concrete blocks or cylinders. The most costeffective designs typically require excavations 10-15 m (33-49 ft) deep. In addition, wind energy projects require roads and equipment pads sufficient to get the turbines to the sites and accommodate the cranes required to install the turbines. Soils that are not readily excavated or graded can significantly increase project costs. An additional consideration when examining site soil conditions is erosion. Controlling erosion will be more difficult for some combinations of soils, weather conditions, and terrain than others.
On-Site Vegetation
Vegetation increases the turbulence intensity at the site and decreases the wind speeds. While modern wind turbine towers are on the order of 50 m (164 ft) in height, the blade passage height can be 25 m (82 ft) or even less
This is because more complex terrain will require more grading and earth movement than less complex terrain. Complex terrain may also limit the size of turbines that can be installed due to limitations in the ability to get the turbines or cranes to the site or to create sufficient lay-down areas for site construction. It can also lead to less-than-optimal turbine sitting because terrain features affect the project layout.
Visual impacts
Terrain should be as flat as possible.
Why The Site Is Inappropriate? First considering the Climate Condition of Site under Study:
Gharo to Keti-bunder wind corridor lies in the province of Sindh. And structurally Sindh generally contains gently folded anticlinal features trending in north-south direction. The major active faults in province are as under:
SURJANI FAULT: N-S Trending. Located west of Larkana. It cuts Quaternary deposits. The maximum
magnitude of the earthquake associated with the fault is of the order M=6.1 on Ritcher Scale.
JHIMPIR FAULT: N-W Trending. A number of epicenters are located on the fault. The fault has
produced an earthquake of M=5.6 on Ritcher Scale.
PAB FAULT: NN-W Trending. Located in the eastern part of Pab range. The maximum magnitude of the
earthquake associated with fault is of the order M=7.0 on Ritcher Scale.
RANN OF KUTCH: E-W Trending. The fault has produced an earthquake of the order M=7.6 on Ritcher
Scale. Recent studies have revealed that this fault traverses the Karachi Metropolitan Area.
Cyclones:
Historically, the tropical cyclones formed over the Arabian sea and making landfall at the coastal areas of Sindh. Major cyclones reaching Sindh during the last 100 years happened in May 1902, June 1926, June 1964. Nov. 1993, June 1998, May 1999 and June 2007 (Cyclone 02A). Keti Bunder town was wiped out four times in recent history.
TSUNAMI
The Sindh province can be a recipient of a tsunami disaster. The effects of tsunami of December, 2004 were also felt along the Pakistan coastline. Abnormal rise in water detected by tide gauge station at Keti Bander area created panic in the coastal population including Karachi. The effects of tsunami of December, 2004 were also felt along the Pakistan coastline. Abnormal rise in water detected by tide gauge station at Keti Bander area created panic in the coastal population including Karachi.
EarthQuake:
A geological tectonic line runs under Karachi through Khirthar Hills / Mountains to north-west of Sindh and Thar desert, due to which Sindh has risk of a major earthquake in the future.
Floods
The site under consideration, is prone to following types of floods
Thatta (Ketibunder) Riverine Flood Dadu (Gharo) Riverine Flood, Flash Floods FLASH FLOODS: An arroyo is a water-carved gully or a normally dry creek found in arid or desert regions. When storms appear in these areas, the rain water cuts into the dry, dusty soil creating a small, fast-moving river. Flash flooding in an arroyo can occur in less than a minute, with enough power to wash away sections of pavement. Because of its rapid nature flash floods are difficult to forecast and give people little time to escape or to take food and other essentials with them.
RIVERINE FLOOD: Due to an increase in water level in rivers. That eventually, intrudes into city and
cause destruction at a large scale. The districts in the lower Sindh prone to Riverine flooding includes Dadu (Gharo), Jamshoro and Thatta (Keti-Bunder) on the right bank of River Indus and Tando Muhammad Khan, Matiari and Hyderabad. The length of River Indus along the province is 750 kms long.
Conclusion :
From the above mentioned topographical data of the wind corridor, we know that Kati Bandar is on the western edge of cyclone prone areas that hit coasts of Pakistan and India, and was wiped out four times in recent history. The effects of tsunami of December, 2004 were also felt along the Pakistan coastline. Abnormal rise in water detected by tide gauge station at Keti Bander area created panic in the coastal population including Karachi.
Whereas, the Gharo city, lies on the geological tectonic line. And thus, can be susceptible to erosion. The soil is muddy and the site is very much prone to riverine and flash floods. Thus, if in case , the soil condition is contended. But in case of any natural disaster, the gharo ~ keti bunder wind corridor would be swept away by flood or tsunami, due to insufficient mitigation plan against Natural Disasters in Pakistan. Moreover, the site is under developed. Gharo is much developed than Keti bunder. And theres a nearby Grid existence for Gharo, i.e. KESC grid. But Keti bunder has been too much subtle for natural disasters that theres been a poor living standard. And the mob is below the average paid Pakistani. Keti bunder which lies on coastal region is susceptible of tidal waves. The turbulence intensity is much higher at such places. Such changes may damage a wind turbine more than an extreme change in wind speed. It is usually prone to typhoons and wind turbulences. Another reason, for the unsuitability of the site is, the Gharo city is a pre-historic city, and it encloses the ruins of a historic city Bhanbhore, por JanGasior and the Bhanbore Museum. Moreover the city is agricultural. Different crops like rice and cotton are irrigated there. This eliminates those areas of Gharo from the suitable areas of Wind farm.