Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Gregory McCrickard Heather McPherson David Wagner David Wallack Brian Dausch (moderator)
14 years of investment experience, 13 with T. Rowe Price Portfolio specialist in the Equity Division of T. Rowe Price since 2007
12 years of investment experience, 11 with T. Rowe Price Portfolio manager of the U.S. Smaller Companies Strategy since 2007
DAVID J. WALLACK
portfolio manager
22 years of investment experience, 21 with T. Rowe Price Portfolio manager of the Mid-Cap Value Strategy since 2000
HEATHER K. MCPHERSON
portfolio manager
11 years of investment experience, 9 with T. Rowe Price Associate portfolio manager of the Mid-Cap Value Strategy since 2005
Agenda
Why do small- and mid-caps make sense in a diversified portfolio? Outlook for small- and mid-caps relative to large-caps is mixed
Valuations Fundamentals Performance cycles
30% 24 18 12 6 0
U.S. Small-Cap Equities
190 170 150 130 110 90 '50
1 Precious
Corporate Bonds
Cash
Small-Caps Outperform
Small-Caps Underperform
'54
'58
'62
'66
'70
'74
'78
'82
'86
'90
'94
'98
'02
'06
'10
Metals Returns only since 1947. All returns are annualized returns from 1926-September 30, 2011, except Precious Metals, which is from 1947-September 30, 2011. Equity returns based on Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago Data, Large: Decile 1, Mid: Decile 2 and 3, Small: Decile 4 and 5. Precious Metals Returns based on CRB CCI Precious Metals Index. Bonds based on U.S. IT Government Index from 1926-1972, Lehman Bros. Government Corporate Index from 1973-1975, Barclays Cap. U.S. Aggregate Index from 1976-September 30, 2011. Cash based on 30-day T-bill yield. Sources: CRSP Center for Research in Securities Prices-Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, T. Rowe Price, The Leuthold Group October 2011 Past performance cannot guarantee future results. These charts are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific security. Unlike U.S. Treasuries and corporate bonds, stocks are not guaranteed as to the timely payment of interest and principal.
Small- and Mid-Caps Make Up a Large Part of the Worlds Investable Universe
30 September 2011
U.S.
21.1
5 10 15 Trillions 20 25
World Market
30 35
$0
$0
Smallest 0-1,000 Mid 1,000-10,000 Largest Over 10,000
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Number of Companies
20 15 10 5 0
21 14 8 4
Large
Mid
Small
Micro
10
Sources: FactSet, Merrill Lynch Small-Cap Research Reprinted by permission. Copyright 2011 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated. The use of the above in no way implies that Merrill Lynch endorses the views or interpretation or the use of such information or acts as any endorsement of T. Rowe Price use of such information. The information is provided as is, and Merrill Lynch does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information.
The New Horizons Fund relative P/E compared to the large-cap-dominated S&P 500 is at a 25-year high.
11
The funds P/E ratio is an average, unweighted number based on 12-month forward earnings per share as estimated by the funds investment manager at each quarter-end. The funds P/E ratio is representative of small cap stock valuations and is shown for illustrative purposes only. This is not intended to be an offer of the New Horizons Fund.
Small-cap earnings growth has decelerated. Large- and mid-cap earnings momentum has slowed, but not as much.
12
Economic Versus Non-Economic Bear Markets Dow Jones Industrials, 1899 to Present Date of High Economic Bear Markets (Decline Occurring Prior to or During U.S. Recession) Non-Economic Bear Markets (Market Decline Not Associated With U.S. Recession) Latest Decline (DJIA) Russell 2000 29 April 2011 29 April 2011 Medians: Date of Low 1899 to Date 1945 to Date Medians: 1899 to Date 1945 to Date 3 October 2011 3 October 2011 Pct. Decline -36.9% -30.0 -27.1 -26.9 -16.8 -29.1 Duration (Months) 21.9 18.1 6.5 6.0 5.0 5.0
Non-economic bear markets have been much shorter than recession-induced ones, but they have inflicted almost as much damage.
If we are heading for an economic recession, we are likely to see more turbulence. Non-economic recessions have been much shorter lived, which could signify that an upturn is on the horizon.
13
Source: The Leuthold Group, October 2011
Sources: Securities Data Corp., FactSet Research Systems, BofA Merrill Lynch Small-Cap Research
78
84
81
87
93
05
02
90
08
96
99
ec -
ec -
ec -
ec -
ec -
ec -
ec -
ec -
ec -
ec -
ec -
15
Past performance cannot guarantee future results. Sources: Russell Investment Group, BofAML Small-Cap Research It is not possible to invest directly in an index. These charts are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific security.
Se
p1
2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 Index Level 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0
85
87
91
97
01
05
99
03
07
09
89
93
95
ec -
ec -
ec -
ec -
ec -
ec -
ec -
ec -
ec -
ec -
ec -
ec -
ec -
16
Past performance cannot guarantee future results. Source: T. Rowe Price It is not possible to invest directly in an index. These charts are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific security.
Se pt
-1
Average
1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 12/31/78 12/31/83 12/31/88 12/31/93 12/31/98 12/31/03 12/31/08
Average
1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 12/31/78
17
Source: T. Rowe Price
12/31/83
12/31/88
12/31/93
12/31/98
12/31/03
12/31/08
Average
Price/Book
1.40
Average
1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 12/31/78
18
Source: T. Rowe Price
12/31/83
12/31/88
12/31/93
12/31/98
12/31/03
12/31/08
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Growth
19
Past performance cannot guarantee future results. Source: The Leuthold Group, October 2011 These charts are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific security.
Cash
10 8 6 4 2 0
68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
1 Largest
20
1,500 stocks, excluding financials, utilities, and autos. Data smoothed on a trailing twelve-month basis. Sources: MergerStat, Corporate Reports, Empirical Research Partners Analysis, FactSet, JP Morgan.
19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 C ur re nt
12