Thayer Consultancy

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Background Briefing: United States in Phnom Penh: Challenge in Chinas Backyard Carlyle A. Thayer July 13, 2012

[client name deleted] Q1. Can you provide your assessment about the timing of the US initiating the easing of restrictions on Burma today? ANSWER: The Obama Administration has been reviewing how to ease U.S. sanctions on Myanmar since the national elections. The timing may be explained by Secretary Clintons participation in the ASEAN Regional Forum and other ministerial meetings in Phnom Penh. She met with the Myanmar foreign minister. The announcement was timed for maximum impact. It should be noted that the EUs stance on sanctions has irritated ASEAN. Q2. Why do you think the US would choose to announce this during an ASEAN summit that China is attending? In short, do you think this will anger China? ANSWER: China has always used the occasion of ASEAN and related ministerial meetings to announce assistance packages. Last year they provided a hefty sum for confidence building measures related to the South China Sea. The Obama Administration has overturned the multilateral tables on China by working through ASEAN. Now the Obama Administration is cultivating ties with Myanmar a country that borders China. Myanmar is being offered an alternate choice. China at the least will be uncomfortable because it was used to having Myanmar virtually all to itself. At worst Chinas conservatives will see Clintons visit to Mongolia, Laos and easing of sanctions on Myanmar as encirclement. Q3, Do you think that outside of Burma the US has any leverage in ASEAN on human rights and governance anymore, given China's "no strings" aid, or will they have to drop this approach entirely just to retain some relevance and economic foothold in the region? ANSWER: It depends on the countries concerned. In countries where civil society is active Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Cambodia - the U.S. can support these groups to shore up human rights. These groups are supposed to be consulted by the ASEAN Inter-governmental Human Rights Commission. In the case of Vietnam, Secretary Clinton has put down a marker: no arms sales unless the human rights situation improves. This has had little impact so far and indeed the situation has gotten worse in Vietnam since her first visit. She pressed this theme on

2 her most recent visit deliberately seeking a meeting with the party chief to ensure that her message got through. Protecting and advancing human rights is a continual work in progress. Chinas no strings aid definitely undermines the policies of countries that put human rights conditionality on their assistance program, including the U.S. The U.S. Administrations hands are not entirely free as Congress has and could impose legislative restrictions in particular cases. Note the difficulty the Obama Administration faces over sanctions. Some were imposed by Congress and can only be removed by an act of Congress. Q4. Any other views on this week's rather dim ARF? I would not use the term dim to describe proceedings. The ARF is only a security dialogue forum. It was never designed to make binding decisions. All its resolutions and recommendations are voluntary. As a security dialogue forum countries are free to discuss issues of concern. China was unable to dictate that there be no discussion of the South China Sea. It should be recalled that in 1995 when the ARF first met China tried the same approach. And the South China Sea was discussed by concerned countries. (following Chinas occupation of Mischief Reef).

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, United States in Phnom Penh: Challenge in Chinas Backyard, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 13, 2012.