SDI2K8 Algae Affirmative PKY Lab Algae Affirmative Pre-Novice Group Recently, scientists have discovered exciting possibilities with the use of Algae as an energy source. The use of algae may be efficient, economical and clean. The research is largely in developmental stages and more work needs to be done. This is where the affirmative comes in. The affirmative calls for providing all necessary economic incentives for corporations to invest in the development of algae as an alternative energy source. The advantages are economics, soft power and species loss/giobal warming. More work needs to be done on the solvency mechanism, but this should be a nice starter file for the beginning of the debate season. Good Luck, Patrick, Wendy, Donny and the rest of the Pre-Novice lab 1-20 LAC 21 Inhereney Advantage 1 Economy 22 Economy is weak 23-27 Internal Links: Energy/Environment is key 28-30. U.S. Economy is key to global economy 31 U.S. economy is key to Asian economy 32-33 Economy impacts extensions Advantage 2 Soft Power 34-35. Soft power is low 36-41 Soft power is neessary 42 China cannot fill in 43 A/T Hard power is key 44 Plan increases soft power Advantage 3 Species loss 45-52. global warming/species impacts 53 A/tno impact Solvency 54-61 Algae Solvency 62-63 Companies interested in Algae 64 Answers to Algae bad 65 Leadership solvencySDI2K8 Algae Affirmative PKY Lab Observation 1: Harms Advantage One: Economy Indicators say the United States is already in a recession Norris June 14, 2008 “The Recession in the Rearview Mirror” (Floyd, LexisNexis Academic} Hopes that the United States could avoid a recession were renewed this week by evidence that the government’ rebate checks were stimulating spending, atleast for now. But (Wo recession indicators based on employment statistics offer evidence that a recession may have begun months ‘Ago. While both indicators are based on declining job markets, they differ in that each comes from a different survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Those surveys ~- one of business establishments and the other of households -- sometimes offer contradictory views of the employment picture. But now they both indicate an economy that has slowed significantly. The top chart is based on the establishment survey and reflects changes over 12-month periods in the number of private sector jobs, ‘before seasonal adjustments. Normally, that total increases even if the economy is not strong, simply beeause the working age population is rising. But when the number of jobs falls over a 12- month period, that is an indication that a recession is already under way. Since 1953, there have been 10 periods when the figures fell into negative territory. As the chart shows, the first nine came months after a recession had already started, although that was never clear until later. The 10th period began in May. The lags in that indicator — the time from the beginning of the recession until the time thatthe year-over-year job figures enter negative tertory -- have ranged from two to 12 ‘months, with an average of five to six months. The jab figures from the establishment survey will be modified several times before the final number for any month is reported, and itis possible the revisions may chnge the recession signal, making it come earlier or laterornot at all. The household survey, however, is not revised, 50 that recession indicator, shown in the bottom chart, will main, The indicator is based on a 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate over a 12-month period. As with the other indicator, each time that has happened since 1953 a recession had already begun three to 10 months earlier. It also signaled a recession in May.SDI2K8 Algae Affirmative PRY Lab ‘Advantage One Continued. High Energy Prices are the cause for a massive economic downturn for the U.S. Luciw, Dec. 20, 2007 “U.S. Will Feel the Pain Next Year: Merrill” [Roma, LexisNexis Academic] The U.S. economy is likely headed for a painful and pronounced downturn next year, according to a Merrill Lynch recession probability indicator. "Clients should be taking recession risks very seriously," said David Rosenberg, Merrill's North American economist. Fears of a U.S. recession have picked up in recent months, but most economists still believe the world's largest economy will manage to avert an official slowdown. A recession is often characterized as two straight quarterly declines in gross domestic product. The Merrill note uses the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research's definition, which is ofa significant decline in economy activity lasting more than afew months and evident across economic measures including GDP, employment and retail sales. The Merrill recession probability indicator looks at a combination of the yield curve and corporate spreads and is now flashing a 100-per-cent probability that the U.S. economy will je into a recession in the next 12 months. That is up from a 75-per-cent probability in October and a 0- per-cent reading this summer, around the time the U.S. subprime mortgage market and credit woes emerged. A separate model used by Merrill looks at the shape of the yield curve and the level of the Fed funds rate. This model is now showing a 50-per-cent chance of a recession, down from over 60 per cent last week, Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc. in Florida, pegs the risks ofa U.S. recession at between 25 and 30 percent. "The expectation is that the economy is going to slow down but wll likely avoid recession and improve later inthe year," he said in an interview. However, Mr. Brown said higher energy prices, a more severe correction in the housing sector and further problems in the credit market were downside risks with the potential to curb economic growth next year, "Most economists believe we will avoid [a recession] but if you talk to businesses, a majority believe that we are either already in one or are going to go into one," hhe said, "It rises the psychological issue of whether if people expecta recession, maybe they will top spending and trigger one.” Mr. Rosenberg, who was not available for an interview, said that although "talk" ofa recession has gained momentum in recent months, many asset classes have yet to do the "walk." For example, equity markets have pried in just a 40-per-cent chance ofa recession scenario, and many cyclical sectors - especially materials, {echnology and industrials - have barely discounted it tall, even though recessions have typically resulted in a20- per-cent decline in corporate earings. Ifa recession does materialize, investors should pile into cash, high-quality bonds, defensive sectors, and those with reliable dividend growth, Mr. Rosenberg said.