ADWEC Winter 2011 / 2012

Electricity & Water Demand

Forecasts
Mr KeithMiller
DirectorofPlanningandStudies

Mohammed Al Hajjiri

Einar Al Hareeri

Head of Water Demand Forecasting

Head of Electricity Demand Forecasting

Ab
AbuDhabiWaterandElectricityCompany
Dh bi W t
d El t i it C
www.adwec.ae
MEED Arabian Power & Water Summit
6th 7th March 2012
Park Hyatt Hotel, Abu Dhabi, UAE

AbuDhabiWater&ElectricityCompany| keithmiller@adwec.ae|Tel:+97126943816|Fax:+97126425773

2011 Electricity Demand Actuals

Emirate of Abu Dhabi

Electricity Peak Demand

+ 800 MW

+12%

(7,683
7 683 MW)
MW)

Electricity Energy Demand

Exports (FEWA / SEWA)

Exports to Northern Emirates (FEWA / SEWA)

(MWh)

+ >300 MW

+10%

+19%

(2,066
2 066 MW)
MW)

Gl b l = Emirate
Global
E i t off Abu
Ab Dhabi
Dh bi + Exports
E
t

Global (Emirate of Abu Dhabi + FEWA / SEWA Exports)

Electricity Peak Production

+ 1200 MW

+14%

(9,749 MW)
MW)

Electricity Energy Demand

(MWh)

+13%

(56,602,646 MWh excluding GCC exports )

2

Emirate of Abu Dhabi

Electricity Peak Demand (MW)

1990 2011 Average

8% p.a.

1990 2006 Average

7% p.a.

Very little ADNOC (Oil GDP) related electricity demand before 2007.
Provides a good historic proxy for Non
Non--Oil GDPs
GDP electricity demand growth.

2007 2011 Average

10% p.a.

Electricity demand has grown > 10% in 4 out of 5 years.

Post-2006 electricity demand has grown faster than pre-2006.

2008 2011 Average

11% p.a.

Abu
bu Dhabis
ab s Peak
ea Electricity
ect c ty Demand
e a dG
Growth
o t Rate
ate has
as increased
c eased in recent
ece t yea
years.
s
2011 Abu Dhabi Peak :
2011 Global Peak
:

7,683 MW
9 749 MW
9,749

Global Peak Electricity Production to exceed 10,000 MW in 2012

3

Electricity Demand Forecasting Structure

4 Key Components

1. Firm Contracted Exports (FEWA

FEWA / SEWA)
Firm Contracted Exports
Excludes non-firm interruptible exports

:
:

FEWA / SEWA / FE
(~2,066 MW 2011)
e.g. ADWECs exports to Bahrain August 50 MW / September 2011 100 MW.

2. ADNOC
ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) (~500+ MW 2011).

Oil & Gas GDP

3. Industry (~600 MW 2011)

Emirates Steel
ZonesCorp
Khalifa Industrial Zone Abu Dhabi (KIZAD)
(KIZAD).
ChemaWEyaat (Abu Dhabi National Chemicals Company).
ADBIC (Abu Dhabi Basic Industries Corporation).

Non--Oil & Gas

Non
GDP
4. Residential / Commercial ((~5,600 MW 2011))
Government
Residential (e.g. Al Raha Beach / Al Reem Island).
Commercial
Tourism (e.g. Yas Island / Saadiyat Island / Abu Dhabi Airport)
4

Firm Contacted Exports Forecast

(FEWA / SEWA)

March 2011

H.H. President ordered new investments in the Northern Emirates electricity and water sector.
ADWEA provided ADWEC with FEWA / SEWA Export Forecasts to use for planning purposes.

2011 ADWEC Peak Exports = 2,066 MW

Similar in size to :
FEWA capacity
SEWA capacity
FEWA + SEWA

~ 1,300 MW
~ 2,400 MW
~ 3,700 MW

2011 2013 Exports

ADWEC P
ADWECs
Peak
kE
Exports
t tto N
Northern
th
E
Emirates
i t > +80%
80%
2013 Peak Exports > 3,800+ MW and will exceed :
a) Sum of current FEWA + SEWA capacity.
b) Abu Dhabis 2001 peak demand (3,723 MW).
c) Bahrains 2011 Peak Demand (2,812 MW).
d) 3+ times larger than maximum GCCIA interconnection (1,200 MW).

ADWEC largest exporter of Electricity within GCC.

5

ADNOC Forecast
(Oil & Gas GDP)

Emirate of Abu Dhabi's 2010 GDP

(AED million current prices)

Non-Oil GDP
50.3%

Oil GDP
49.7%

308,022

312,294

Source : Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi (SCAD) 2011 Statistical Yearbook, page 19, Table 1.1.2.

Oil GDP
Non-Oil GDP

ADNOC accounted for just 6% of ADWEC

ADWECs
s 2011 electricity demand peak
peak.

ADNOC (Oil
( & Gas GDP)) has historically generated most of its own electricity (pre-2007).

In future ADWEC will supply most of ADNOC

ADNOCs electricity demand.

Each year ADNOC provides ADWEC with an Electricity Demand forecast.

Common Forecasting Assumptions

((Exports
p
+ ADNOC))
20,000

2014

2015

15,000
13,660

2016

13,989

14,250

14,523

14,831

15,176

12,803
12,265

Pe
eak MW

Exports
9,749

10,084

10,000
8,563
,

ADNOC

5,000

6,629

7,265

7,265

7,265

7,265

7,265

7,265

Notes:
Exports includes F1 & F2 IWPPs' Auxiliaries & Pumping & Losses.
ADNOC includes losses.
2011 Non-ADNOC includes Emirate of Abu Dhabi's Auxiliaries, Losses, End-User Demands (excluding ADNOC).

7,265

7,265

7,265

7,265

2019

2020

2011 Non-ADNOC
N
ADNOC D
Demand
d

0
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2011 : 9,749 MW
2015 : 13,660 MW
+40% from higher Exports / ADNOC demands alone (8.8% p.a.)

2018

How to Forecast NonNon-Oil GDPs Electricity Demand?

Exports electricity forecast Known.

Known

ADNOC electricity demand forecast Known.

4 Non-Oil GDPs electricity demand forecasts developed by ADWEC.

2 Approaches :
((1))

Bottom-Up
p Projects
j
Based approach
pp
(i) Projects Based Forecast (ADWECs Base Forecast)
(ii) Low Forecast (subset of Projects Based Forecast)

(2)

Historical Trends approach

(iii) 1990 2006 : ~ 7% p.a.
(iv) 2007 2011 : ~ 10% p.a.

ADWEC Peak Electricity Demand Forecasts

24,781

25,000
Northern Emirates Exports / Losses / Pumping / Auxiliaries

22,920

23,120

ADNOC
21,233

Non-ADNOC Demands

21,440

2014

Projects Based Forecast

2016

2015

20,145

20,000
Non-ADNOC 10% p.a. + Common Export / ADNOC Assumptions

18,307

Non-ADNOC 7% p.a. + Common Exports / ADNOC Assumptions

16,942

19,029

19,911
18,808
18,798

17,792
17,384

Common Assumptions + 2011 Non-ADNOC Demands

18,043
16,836

Low Forecast

15,145

21 107
21,107

19,707

17,335
,

16 244
16,244
16,670

15,858
16,026

15,000

Pe
eak MW

13,751

13,226

13,290

14,673

14,395

14,164

15,392
13,660

13,989

14,250

14,523

14,831

15,176

12,803
12,265
12,991
10 791
10,791
9,749

10,463

Exports

10,579

10,084

10,000

10,385

8,563

ADNOC

5,000

2011 Non-ADNOC Demand

6,629

7,265

7,265

7,265

7,265

7,265

7,265

7,265

7,265

7,265

7,265

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Projects Based Forecast (base)

2011 2015 :
Abu Dhabi :
11.3% p.a.
Global :
13.6% p.a.

2011
Electricity Peak Demands (MW) :
Abu Dhabi :
11.6% p.a.
Global :
13.9% p.a.
9

ADWEC Electricity Peak Demand Forecasts (MW)

Global Forecast Range
2011 : 9,749 MW

2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

Low
Low Forecast
10,385
12,991
,
14,164
15,392
16,026
16 670
16,670
17,335
18,043
8, 98
18,798

Base
Projects Based
10,463
13,226
,
14,673
16,244
17,384
19 029
19,029
20,145
21,440
23,120
,

High
10% p.a. Non-ADNOC
10,791
,
13,751
15,145
16,942
18,307
19 707
19,707
21,233
22,920
, 8
24,781

Projects Based Forecast

2011 2015 :
Abu Dhabi :
11.3% p.a.
Global :
13.6% p.a.
2015 2020 : 7% - 8% p.a.

2011
Electricity Peak Demands (MW) :
Abu Dhabi :
11.6% p.a.
Global :
13.9% p.a.

(similar to long term 1990 2011 growth rate of 8% p.a.).

10

Cumulative Incremental Electricity Peak Demands

Post-2011
Post
2011 (Projects Based Forecast)
7,000

2/3rds Exports / ADNOC 8.8%p.a.

6,000

2011 2015 :
Abu Dhabi : 11.3% p.a.
Global :
13.6% p.a.
Exports
po ts

5,000

MW

4,000

ADNOC

3,000

Exports
2,000

1,000

Industry
ADNOC
Industry

Residential / Commercial

Residential / Commercial
Auxiliaries

0
2011-2013

2011-2015

11

ADWEC Projects Based Forecast

Peak Electricity Demand (MW)
35,000

33,730
32,695

Global Demand (diversified)

31,604
30,462

Emirate of Abu Dhabi (diversified)

29,537

30,000

28,476
27,624

25,000

2011 2020 :
Abu Dhabi : 9.4%
9 4% p
p.a.
a
Global
: 10.1% p.a.

27,828
26,800

26,299
25,718

25,432
24 583
24,583

24,077

23,665

23,120
22,611

Exports

21,440
20,145

Auxiliaries

20,450

19,589

19,029

20,000

21,765

18,243
8, 3

17,384

17,293

16,244

15,923
14,917

14,673
14,074

15,000

Industry

13,226
12,691
11,795

10,463

10,360

9,749

ADNOC

9,084

10,0008,563
7,683

8,063

6,885

5,000

Residential / Commercial

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

12

ADWEC Water Peak Demand Forecast

by Region (MIGD)
1,500

Global Demand = Emirate of Abu Dhabi System + Northern Emirates Supply

1,400
1,300
1,200
1,107

1,134

1,075

1,100

1,038
978

1,000

999

85
1,010

77

1,033

1,196

1,267

1 292
1,292

91

91

91

91

1,362
91

91
91
91

91

1,340

1,215

91

1,237

1,259

1,190
1,165
1,141

1,075

1,055

1,095

1 115
1,115

981

89

835

1,177

88

80

917
900

91

1,156

1,217

1,243

1,318

949
914

81
881

800
690
700
34

752

56

46

770

828

699

600 648
500

Auxilliaries
Northern Emirates Supply

400

Western Region
300

Al Ain
Ab Dh
Abu
Dhabi
bi

200

Global Demand
100
0
2011

Note: The Global System peak differes from the sum of the individual area peaks
due to the difference in demand patterns (the peak occures in different months).

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2011 2015 : 8% - 9% p.a.

2017

Emirate of Abu Dhabi System (excluding Auxiliaries)

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2015 2020 : 3% p.a.

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2011 2020 : 5% - 6% p.a.

13

ADWEC Water Peak Demand Forecasts

by Sector (MIGD)
1400

1200
1,075

1,107

1,134

1,156

1,177

1,196

1,038
978

1000

999
1,020

917

1,043

1,066

1 086
1,086

1,106
,

1,217

1,126

1,243

1,152

1 267
1,267

1,176

1,292

1,202

1,318

1,227

1,340

1,249

1,362

1,271

991
959

835

923
890

800

752

690

836
778

705

Total Northern Emirates Supply (Including Auxiliaries & Losses )

600 655

Industrial (including ADNOC)

Agricultural
Abu Dhabi Emirate Auxiliaries

400

Shabiat / Town houses

Villas
Domestic
Residential / Commercial Mega Projects

200

Bulk & Other

Emirate of Abu Dhabi (including Auxiliaries)
Global Peak Demand

0
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2011 2015 : 8% - 9% p.a.

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2015 2020 : 3% p.a.

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2011 2020 : 5% - 6% p.a.

14

Summary
2011 Electricity Peak Demand (MW) :
Abu Dhabi :
Global :

11.6% p.a.
13.9% p.a.`

ADWEC Winter 2011 / 2012 Peak Demand Forecast Summary

Electricity Demand Forecast
Projects Based Forecast
Emirate of Abu Dhabi
Global (including exports)

Water Demand Forecast

Most-Likely Forecast
Emirate of Abu Dhabi
Global (including exports)

per annum
2011 - 2015

per annum
2015 - 2020

per annum
2011 - 2020

11.3%
13.6%

8.0%
7.3%

9.4%
10.1%

per annum
2011 - 2015

per annum
2015 - 2020

per annum
2011 - 2020

8.0%
9.1%

3.2%
3.0%

5.3%
5.7%

15

Thank You

16