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Chapter 3
Continuous Probability Distributions
Case Problem: Specialty Toys
1.
.
025
.
95
10,000
20,000
At x = 30,000,
z=
= 5102
@ 15,000
z=
CP - 18
.
025
30,000
Chapter 3
z=
@ 28,000
z=
Profit projections for the order quantities under the 3 scenarios are computed below:
Order Quantity: 15,000
Sales
Unit Sales
10,000
20,000
30,000
Total Cost
240,000
240,000
240,000
at $24
240,000
360,000
360,000
at $5
25,000
0
0
Profit
25,000
120,000
120,000
Total Cost
288,000
288,000
288,000
at $24
240,000
432,000
432,000
at $5
40,000
0
0
Profit
-8,000
144,000
144,000
Total Cost
384,000
384,000
384,000
at $24
240,000
480,000
576,000
at $5
70,000
20,000
0
Profit
-74,000
116,000
192,000
Total Cost
448,000
at $24
240,000
at $5
90,000
CP - 19
Profit
-118,000
Chapter 3
20,000
30,000
4.
448,000
448,000
480,000
672,000
40,000
0
72,000
224,000
We need to find an order quantity that cuts off an area of .70 in the lower tail of the normal curve for
demand.
30%
70%
20,000 Q
z = 0.52
Q 20, 000
z=
= 0.52
5102
Q = 20,000 + 0.52(5102) = 22,653
Total Cost
362,488
362,488
362,488
at $24
240,000
480,000
543,672
at $5
63,265
13,265
0
CP - 20
Profit
-59,183
130,817
181,224
Chapter 3
5.
A variety of recommendations are possible. The students should justify their recommendation by
showing the projected profit obtained under the 3 scenarios used in parts 3 and 4. An order quantity
in the 18,000 to 20,000 range strikes a good compromise between the risk of a loss and generating
good profits.
While the students don't have the benefit of the following, a single-period inventory model
(sometimes called the news vendor model) shows how to find an optimal solution. We outline that
solution below.
A single-period inventory model recommends an order quantity that maximizes expected profit
based on the following formula:
P(Demand Q* ) =
cu
cu + co
*
where P(Demand Q ) is the probability that demand is less than or equal to the recommended
*
order quantity, Q . cu is the cost of underestimating demand (having lost sales because of a stockout)
and co is the cost per unit of overestimating demand (having unsold inventory). Specialty will sell
Weather Teddy for $24 per unit. The cost is $16 per unit. So, cu = $24 - $16 = $8. If inventory
remains after the holiday season, Specialty will sell all surplus inventory for $5 a unit. So, co = $16 -
$5 = $11.
P(Demand Q* ) =
8
= 0.4211
8 + 11
0.4211
0.5789
Q*
z = -0.20
z=
Q* 20, 000
= 0.20
5102
Total Cost
at $24
at $5
CP - 21
Profit
Chapter 3
10,000
20,000
30,000
303,680
303,680
303,680
240,000
455,520
455,520
44,900
0
0
CP - 22
-18,780
151,840
151,840