SI

Discrete Probability Distribution Uniform Distribution:

Practice material for week 5

The simplest of all discrete probability distribution is one in which the random variable assumes all its values with equal probabilities. Such a probability distribution is called the discrete uniform distribution. If the random variable X assumes the values x1 , x 2 , x3 ,...... x k , with equal probabilities, then the discrete uniform distribution is given by f ( x; k ) =

1 , for x = x1 , x 2 , x3 ,...... x k , . k

We have used the notation f( x ; k ) instead of f ( x ) to indicate that the uniform distribution depend on the parameter k.

Example:
When a die is tossed, each element of the sample space S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 } occurs with probability 1/6. Therefore, we have a uniform distribution, with f ( x ; 6 ) = 1/6, for x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. The graph which representation of the uniform distribution by means of a histogram always turns out to be a set of rectangles with equal heights. The histogram for example 1 is:

Binomial Distribution:
The binomial experiment is one that possesses the following properties: 1. The experiment consists of n repeated trials. 2. Experiment contains only two possible outcomes 3. The outcomes of interest is termed as SUCCESS and the other outcome is termed as FAILURE. 4. If the probability of success is p and the probability of failure is q then p + q = 1 5. The repeated trial are independent. The formula for binomial distribution is

n b( x; n; p ) = p ( x ) = p x q n x , for x = 1, 2, ., n. x
Example 1: Find the probability of obtaining exactly three 2s if an ordinary die is tossed 5 times. Solution: n( E ) 1 P( E ) = p = = n(S) = 6, n(E) = 1 n( S ) 6

p=

1 1 5 q = 1 p = 1 = 6 6 6
3 5 3

5 1 5 1 b(3;5, ) = = 0.032 3 6 6 6 Example 2. In a certain city district the need for money to buy drugs is given as the reason for 75% of all thefts. What is the probability that exactly 2 of the next 4 theft cases reported in this district resulted from the need for money to buy drugs. Solution: p = 75% = q = 1- p = 1- = ; x = 2 and n = 4

 4 3 1 3 b(2;4, ) = 2 4 4 4

4 2

= 0.211

Example 3: The probability that a patient recovers from a rare blood disease is 0.4. If 15 people are known to have contracted this disease, what is the probability that (a) at least 10 survive; (b) from 3 to 8 survive; and (c) exactly 5 survive? Solution:

P( x 10 ) = 1 b( x;15,0.4) = 0.0338
x =0

Q1. A multiple-choice quiz has 15 questions, each with 4 possible answers of which only 1 is the correct answer. What is the probability that sheer guesswork yields from 5 to 10 correct answers? Q2. A survey of the residents in a United States city showed that 20% preferred a white telephone over any other color available. What is the probability that more than one-half of the next 20 telephones installed in this city will be white. Q3. A study conducted at George Washington University and the National Institute of Health examined national attitudes about tranquilizers. The study revealed that approximately 70% believe tranquilizers dont really cure anything, they just cover up the real trouble. According to this study, what is the probability that at least 3 of the next 5 people selected at random will be the opinion that tranquilizers dont really cure the problem but just cover it up?

Mean and Variance of the binomial distribution:

The mean and variance fo the binomial distribution b(x; n, p) are = np 2 = npq and NOTE: Variance ( 2 ) is always less than mean ( ) OR 2 < Q4. Mean and standard deviation of a binomial probability distribution are 2 and 1 respectively. Calculate probabilities for x = 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4.

Chebyshevs Theorem: 1 At least the fraction 1 2 of the measurements of any set of data must lie within k standard deviations k
of the mean. Here we develop the interval by k

Explanation of Theorem:
This theorem is not very helpful for k = 1. If k = 2 that means 1

2 gives at least 75% of the set of information occur over this interval. 1 8 If k = 3 that means 1 = = 0.88 .8 = 88 .8% 9 9 3 gives at least 88.8% of the set of information occur over this interval.
Q5. In question 1, how many correct answers would you expect based on sheer guesswork? Find the interval and interpret the result for at least 75% of the set of result will lie.(Hint: using Chebyshevs Theorem) Q6. If 64 coins are tossed a large number of times, how many heads can we expect on the average per toss? Using Chebyshevs theorem, between what two values would you expect the number of heads to fall at least 8/9 of the time.

1 3 = = 0.75 = 75% 4 4

Hypergeometric Distribution:
If a population of size N contains k items labeled success and N-k items labeled failure, then the probability distribution of the hypergeometric random variable X, the number of success in a random

sample of size n, is

k N k x n x , P ( x ) = h( x; N , n, k ) = N n
for x = 0,1,2,3,n

Q7. A committee of 4 persons is to be formed from among 3 women and 6 men. If selection of the committee members is random find the probability distribution of the random variable Number of women in the committee. Q8. To pass a quality control inspection, two batteries are chosen from each lot of 12 car batteries, and the lot is passed only if neither battery has any defects. If the selection of the batteries is random, find the probability that a lot will pass the inspection when 3 of the 12 batteries are defective. Q9. If 5 cards are dealt from a standard deck of 52 playing cards, what is the probability that 3 will be hearts? Q10. From a lot of 12 missiles 5 are selected at random and fired. If the lot contains 3 defective missiles that will not fire, what is the probability that (a) all 5 will fire (b) at most 2 will not fire. Q11. What is the probability that a waitress will refuse to serve alcoholic beverages to only 2 minors if she randomly checks the IDs of 6 students from among 9 students of which 4 are not of legal age? Q12. If a person is dealt 13 cards from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards several times, how many hearts per hand can be expect? Between what two values would you expect the number of hears to fall at least 75% of the time. Q13. It is estimated that 4000 of the 10000 voting residents of a town are against a new sales tax. If 15 eligible voters are selected at random and asked their opinion, what is the probability that at most 7 favor the new tax? Q14. For mean and variance of Hypergeometric distribution see example 11, page no. 170 of Walpole.

Mean and Variance of the Hypergeometric distribution

=
nk N

and

2 =

N n k k .n. 1 N 1 N N

Poisson Distribution:
The probability distribution of the Poisson random variable X, representing the number of outcomes occurring in a given time interval or specified region, is

P ( x; ) =

Where is the distribution parameter use for expressing the average number of outcomes occurring in the given time interval or specified region and e = 2.71828 (constant). NOTE: The number of events in one time period is independent of the number of events in another time period. In some books use instead of .

e x , for x = 0,1,2,3,. x!

Identification:
For identification, keep these type of example in mind: number of accident per day on a highway, number of cars arriving at a petrol station in a five minute period of time, number of typing mistakes per page made by a typist and number of defects in a painted surface etc. Example: Q1. The average number of cars arriving at a petrol station is 2 per minute. What is the probability that any randomly selected four minute interval, 5 cars will arrive at the station. Q2. The average number of field mice per acre in a 5 acre wheat field is estimated to be 10. Find the probability that a given acre contains more than 15 mice.

Q3. a) b) c)

On the average a certain intersection results in 3 traffic accidents per month. What is the probability that in any given month at this intersection Exactly 5 accidents will occur? Less than 3 accidents will occur? At least 2 accidents will occur? Q4. A certain area of eastern United States is, on the average, hit by 6 hurricanes a year. Find the probability that in a given year this area will be hit by a) Fewer than 4 hurricanes. b) Anywhere from 6 to 8 hurricanes.

Poisson Approximation to Binomial Distribution The poission and binomial distribution have histograms with approximately the same shape when n is large and p is close to zero. Hence if these two conditions hold the poisson distribution with = np , can be used to approximate binomial probabilities. If p is closed to 1, we can interchange what we have defined to be success and a failure, thereby changing p to a value close to zero. Condition The value of n is very large. The value of p is very small The value of n.p is finite. Q5. Suppose that on the average 1 person in 1000 makes a numerical error in preparing his income tax return. If 10,000 forms are selected at random and examined, find the probability that 6, 7, or 8 of the forms will be in error. The probability that a student fails the screening test for scoliosis (curvature of the spine) at a local high school is known to be 0.004. Of the next 1875 students who are screened for scoliosis, find the probability that a) Fewer than 5 fail the test. b) 8, 9, or 10 fail the test.

Q6.

Mean and Variance of Poisson Distribution

Mean and Variance of Poisson Distribution is its parameter. E ( x ) = V ( x ) = = 2