Monthly Rubber Bulletin January 2012

Market review- NR
Table1: Futures market prices, average* (US$/kg)
2010

Figure 3: Physical market prices- Europe and New York,

December2011

Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 % change

SICOM TSR 20

3.38

4.02

3.42

3.43

0.2%

SICOM RSS 3

3.66

4.14

3.56

3.57

0.2%

TOCOM RSS 3

3.51

4.00

3.54

3.55

0.4%

4.20

4.00

US$/kg

*Benchmark price (6 months).

Figure 1: Futures market prices, December

3.80

3.60

4.00

3.40
3.80

3.20
1-Dec

US $/kg

3.60

3.40

8-Dec
RTAE RSS 3

15-Dec
RTAE TSR 20

22-Dec
NY TSR 20

3.20

Figure 4: Latex prices, December2011

3.00
1-Dec

8-Dec

15-Dec

TOCOM RSS 3

22-Dec

SICOM RSS 3

29-Dec

SICOM TSR 20

Table 2: Physical market prices, average (US$/kg)

2010

Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11

% change

Europe, RTAE RSS 3

3.71

4.16

3.47

3.37

-3%

Europe, RTAE TSR 20

3.45

4.19

3.47

3.37

-3%

New York, TSR 20

3.58

4.35

3.70

3.68

0%

Bangkok, RSS 3

3.66

4.13

3.49

3.43

-2%

Bangkok, STR 20

3.43

4.11

3.47

3.39

-2%

Malaysia, SMR 20

3.33

4.06

3.37

3.32

-1%

Palembang, SIR 20

3.40

4.13

3.46

3.40

-2%

Notes: NY -sellers price; Europe - buyers prices; Bangkok, Malaysia

and Palembang-FOB prices.

Figure 5: Rainfall Southern Thailand, east coast

Figure 2: Physical market prices- Asia, December2011

Source: Thai Meteorological Dept.

29-Dec

Monthly Rubber Bulletin

International Rubber Study Group

Market review- Oil, Monomers and SR

Short-term outlook

Table 3: Oil and Monomer prices

2010

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

% change

Crude oil (Brent), US$/barrel

80.26

108.57

110.61

108.10

-2%

Butadiene - US, US$/kg

1.86

3.09

2.53

2.09

-17%

Styrene - US, US$/kg

1.42

1.39

1.34

-3%*

Butadiene - Europe, US$/kg

1.66

2.92

2.38

2.18

Styrene - Europe, US$/kg

1.38

1.54

1.40

Butadiene - Asia, US$/kg

1.88

2.38

1.68

Table 5: Short-term Outlook in the Major NR

Producing/Consuming Countries
Oct-Dec

'10
791

'11
768

225

3%

675

686

2%

84

-1%

252

249

-1%

105

2%

276

289

5%

98

-7%

295

284

-4%
4%

Dec '10

Dec '11

Thailand

3252

330

313

Indonesia

2736

219

-9%

Malaysia

939

85

1.44

3%

India

851

103

2.05

22%

Vietnam

755

105

Production

Styrene - Asia, US$/kg

1.19
1.31
1.30
1.29
0%
Notes: Contract prices for Butadiene (BD) and Styrene in US and Europe and
spot prices for Asia;* Nov-Oct % change.

Table 4: Synthetic rubber price indices (base

Oct-Dec

change
-5%

2010

Exports

2009=100)

2010

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

% change

SBR-USA 1502

138.40

229.45

204.03

206.57

1%

SBR-Europe 1502

154.78

240.56

225.75

212.80

-6%

SBR-Asia 1502
Source: CMAI

151.79

225.59

176.55

198.45

12%

Consumption

Imports

Figure 6: US NR-SR price delta, Jul 11 Dec 11

%
change
-3%

China

665

47

48

4%

238

248

Thailand

2866

246

231

-6%

702

727

4%

Indonesia

2369

198

178

-10%

624

568

-9%

Malaysia

1245

100

99

-1%

318

307

-3%

Vietnam

782

94

100

7%

266

288

8%

Cte d'Ivoire

247

22

23

7%

69

69

1%

China

3646

350

353

1%

999

1047

4.9%

EU-27

1132

97

97

0%

287

285

-0.7%

India

944

80

83

3%

240

241

1%

USA

926

88

79

-10%

228

216

-5%

Japan

750

61

60

-1%

196

195

-0.5%

China

2590

249

251

1%

700

791

13%

EU-27

1425

116

112

-4%

359

350

-3%

USA

931

76

64

-15%

219

214

-2%

Japan

747

58

60

2%

191

189

-1%

Malaysia

708

63

51

-19%

185

169

-9%
Note: Oct-Dec outlook based on country estimates and trade/industry
feedback.

Table 6: Short-term Outlook in the Major SR

Producing/Consuming Countries

Production

Exports

Figure 7: SR-Monomer margins, Jul 11 - Dec 11*

Dec '10

Dec '11

China

3100

294

316

8%

830

877

6%

EU-27

2490

194

188

-3%

647

623

-4%

USA

2322

191

197

3%

607

610

1%

Japan

1595

149

146

-2%

411

412

0%

Korea

1219

101

107

6%

292

334

14%

EU-27

2928

227

210

-7%

752

718

-5%

USA

1164

97

93

-5%

299

284

-5%

Korea

1050

80

95

19%

260

278

7%

Japan

781

72

62

-13%

201

173

-14%
-2%

Russia

737

73

67

-8%

192

188

China

4442

424

430

1%

1156

1185

3%

EU-27

2290

165

147

-11%

564

543

-4%

USA

1732

130

141

9%

427

451

5%

Japan

987

80

81

1%

257

267

4%

Brazil

532

37

41

10%

123

129

5%

EU-27

2978

213

199

-6%

740

722

-2%

China

1577

150

129

-14%

382

352

-8%

USA

574

36

37

3%

120

124

3%

India

298

25

26

3%

78

80

3%

Thailand
289
23
24
4%
70
73
Note: Oct-Dec outlook based on country estimates and trade/industry
feedback.

4%

Consumption

Imports

Note: SBR 1502 is the reference grade for USA, Europe (Germany)
and Asia (China). *US is only up to November 2011.

%
Oct-Dec Oct-Dec
%
change
'10
'11
change

2010

Economic development
Table 7: World economic indicators, GDP

2009
2010
2011
2012

GDP growth
(%)

Advanced
Economies

Emerging
Economies

-0.7
5.1
4.0
4.0

-3.7
3.1
1.6
1.9

2.8
7.3
6.4
6.1

Source: IMF, WEO September 2011