// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.

2011

DRIVING
OPPORTUNITIES
TO SMALL, DCAREA FIRMS

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
DEC // 15 //11

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

THE OVERALL
SMALL BUSINESS
ENVIRONMENT

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

OMB AT MID SESSION: DISCRETIONARY

CUTS COMING; INTEREST, INFLATION LOOM
Actual & Projected Discretionary Outlays
FY 2010 - FY 2016
$477

$440

$394

$384

Billions of dollars

$1,200
$1,000

$816

$835

$860

$387

Consumer Price Index, 2011-2016

2.8%

3.0%
$388

2.5%
2.0%

$805

$771

$800

$761

2.0%

2.0%

2012*

2013*

2014*

2015*

2016*

$768

1.5%

$600

1.0%

$400

0.5%

$200
$FY10

FY11*

FY12*
Security

FY13*

FY14*

FY15*

FY16*

0.0%
2011*

Non-Security

Net Debt Interest, FY 2010 - FY 2016

91-Day T-Note Interest 2011-2016

4.5%

3.8%

4.0%

$600

4.0%

Billions of dollars

3.0%
2.5%

1.8%

2.0%
1.5%

1.0%

$525

$461

$500

3.2%

3.5%

0.5%

1.9%

2.1%

1.8%

0.5%

$378

$400
$295
$300
$196

$216

$234

FY11*

FY12*

$200
$100

0.1%

$-

0.0%
2011*

2012*

2013*

2014*

2015*

2016*

FY10

FY13*

FY14*

FY15*

FY16*

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

$1,400

$490

SBA Discretionary Outlays and Projections

FY 2010 - FY 2014
$2,000,000
$1,800,000

$1,786,000

$1,600,000
$1,400,000
$1,200,000
$1,000,000

$993,000

$984,000

FY 2011*

FY 2012*

$883,000

$876,000

FY 2013*

FY 2014*

$800,000
$600,000
$400,000
$200,000
$0
FY 2010

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

SBA: LEANER . . . MORE WITH LESS?

THE LAST SIX YEARS: IS THE SB

SPENDING PEAK BEHIND US?

$500.0

Other

$450.0
$400.0

$88.0

$350.0
$300.0

Small
$93.5

$96.3

$80.5
$75.9
$70.5

$250.0
$200.0
$150.0

$100.0

$250.0

$275.6

FY05

FY06

$310.2

$342.0

$357.5

$331.8

FY08

FY09

FY10

$50.0
$0.0
FY07

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

Small and Large/Other Vendor

Contract Spending, FY05-FY10

THE LAST SIX YEARS: IS THE SB

SPENDING PEAK BEHIND US?

Other

Small

100%
90%

22.0%

21.6%

20.6%

20.5%

20.7%

22.5%

78.0%

78.4%

79.4%

79.5%

79.3%

77.5%

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

80%

70%
60%
50%

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

Small and Large/Other Vendor Shares

of Contract Spending FY05 - FY10

THE COMING FIVE YEARS: CAN SMALL

BUSINESS BUCK THE TREND?

$120.00

NONSEC

SECUR

$100.00
$80.00

$60.00

$70.00

$71.63

$73.77

$69.06

$66.14

$65.28

$40.00
$20.00
$26.30

$25.60

$23.62

$21.15

$20.61

$20.77

FY 2010

FY 2011*

FY 2012*

FY 2013*

FY 2014*

FY 2015*

$0.00

* Based on OMB MSR Proposed Budget for FY 2012, Table S-4, August 2011 and on
definition of "Security" created in the Budget Control Act of 2011 now used by OMB.

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

Actual FY10 and Estimated FY11-FY15

Security/NonSec SB Contract Spending

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

THE REGIONAL
PICTURE
>>>>>>>>>>>>>

DC-MD-VA PLACE OF PERFORMANCE :

CONTRACTING POWERHOUSE
Category
All Contract Dollars
DC-MD-VA Contract Dollars
Regional Share
All Federal Vendors
DC-MD-VA Fed Vendors
Regional Share
All Federal Contracts
DC-MD-VA Fed Contracts
Regional Share

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
$434,126,799,126 $477,618,361,903 $525,655,760,848 $553,713,242,948 $534,347,977,527 $466,856,032,732
$82,292,256,965 $87,113,592,895 $99,789,721,138 $104,731,923,772 $106,984,678,467 $90,148,881,148
19.0%
18.2%
19.0%
18.9%
20.0%
19.3%
203,011
39,408
19.4%

209,233
42,093
20.1%

213,893
43,386
20.3%

202,755
40,820
20.1%

203,616
41,540
20.4%

187,442
38,167
20.4%

1,321,540
130,688
9.9%

1,510,783
145,316
9.6%

1,680,563
153,656
9.1%

941,408
125,468
13.3%

948,193
129,075
13.6%

869,637
117,081
13.5%

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

DC-MD-VA PLACE OF PERFORMANCE :

CONTRACTING POWERHOUSE (2)

10

25.0%

20.3%

20.1%

19.0%

18.9%

20.4%

20.0%
19.0%

18.2%

15.0%

9.9%

9.6%

9.1%

FY 2006

FY 2007

FY 2008

10.0%

20.4%

19.3%

13.3%

13.6%

13.5%

FY 2009

FY 2010

FY 2011

5.0%

0.0%
Regional Dollar Share

Regional Vendor Share

Regional Contract Share

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

20.0%

19.4%

20.1%

Category
FY 2006
FY 2007
FY 2008
FY 2009
FY 2010
FY 2011
All Federal SB Contract Dollars
$83,753,030,226 $89,352,845,387 $97,482,523,506 $103,820,565,596 $107,412,675,468 $85,489,434,546
DC-MD-VA SB Contract Dollars
$21,762,514,641 $24,098,224,335 $26,282,106,672 $28,128,426,452 $30,312,633,049 $24,365,958,540
Regional Share
26.0%
27.0%
27.0%
27.1%
28.2%
28.5%
All Small Federal Vendors
DC-MD-VA Small Fed Vendors
Regional Share

142,437
27,242
19.1%

146,513
28,900
19.7%

148,797
29,600
19.9%

139,751
27,503
19.7%

138,782
27,861
20.1%

126,239
25,256
20.0%

All SB Federal Contracts

DC-MD-VA SB Fed Contracts
Regional Share

914,013
83,741
9.2%

898,928
89,990
10.0%

976,931
93,024
9.5%

579,885
76,232
13.1%

570,357
77,763
13.6%

506,157
69,692
13.8%

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

DC-MD-VA SMALL FEDERAL VENDORS:

QUALITY AND QUANTITY (1)

11

30.0%
26.0%

28.2%

28.5%

27.0%

27.0%

27.1%

19.7%

19.9%

19.7%

20.1%

20.0%

13.1%

13.6%

13.8%

FY 2009

FY 2010

FY 2011

25.0%

20.0%

19.1%

15.0%

10.0%

9.2%

10.0%

9.5%

FY 2007

FY 2008

5.0%

0.0%
FY 2006

Regional SB Dollar Share

Regional SB Vendor Share

Regional SB Contract Share

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

DC-MD-VA SMALL FEDERAL VENDORS:

QUALITY AND QUANTITY (2)

12

Metropolitan Area
Washington-Baltimore, DC-MD-VA-WV CMSA
Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange County, CA CMSA
Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News, VA-NC MSA
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ
Boston-Worcester-Lawrence, MA-NH-ME-CT CMSA
San Diego, CA MSA
Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City, PA-NJ-D
Huntsville, AL MSA
San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA CMSA
Atlanta, GA MSA
All Other
Grand Total

FY 2005
FY 2010
FY05-FY10 SB Total $ FY05 - FY10 FY005-FY10 SB Share
$16,484,925,995 $22,962,513,029
$123,130,514,479
39.3%
26.9%
$2,659,951,902 $3,164,356,442
$17,305,086,016
19.0%
3.8%
$1,990,883,861 $3,629,982,432
$16,568,328,242
82.3%
3.6%
$2,726,303,795 $2,603,806,731
$16,741,936,652
-4.5%
3.7%
$1,469,058,634 $1,668,734,014
$10,619,869,441
13.6%
2.3%
$1,427,081,301 $1,696,368,491
$10,389,108,014
18.9%
2.3%
$1,426,746,823 $1,643,620,395
$9,912,122,725
15.2%
2.2%
$1,110,613,942 $1,703,117,153
$9,255,735,443
53.3%
2.0%
$1,337,057,979 $1,193,440,153
$8,304,723,901
-10.7%
1.8%
$1,423,690,326 $1,035,618,342
$7,432,806,622
-27.3%
1.6%
$33,137,501,053 $34,954,787,571
$228,193,417,150
5.5%
49.8%
$65,193,815,610 $76,256,344,753
$457,853,648,685
17.0%
100.0%

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

SB-FRIENDLY METRO AREAS: MOSTLY

COASTAL

13

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

THE AGENCY
PICTURE
>>>>>>>>>>>>>

AGENCY SB SPENDING 1: MOST STILL

STRIVING TO ACHIEVE GOALS

15

FY 2010 Agency Share of Overall SB Spending

DOJ
1.7%

All Other
8.1%

FY 2010 SB Utilization At Billion Dollar+ Agencies

GSA
3.5%
HHS
3.9%
DHS
3.9%

DVA
6.1%

DOD
62.7%

Agency FY 2010 SB Total FY 2010 Agcy Total SB % Agcy SB Goal Goal Diff
DOD
$60,381,459,185 $289,606,812,855 20.8%
22.2%
-1.4%
DVA
$5,846,657,111
$15,755,419,847 37.1%
28.7%
8.4%
DHS
$3,744,984,563
$11,393,873,181 32.9%
31.9%
1.0%
HHS
$3,742,668,860
$17,079,927,359 21.9%
19.0%
2.9%
GSA
$3,364,421,155
$12,376,685,706 27.2%
35.7%
-8.6%
USDA
$3,225,295,620
$5,830,583,012 55.3%
49.9%
5.4%
DOI
$2,583,437,559
$5,923,848,699 43.6%
55.5% -11.9%
NASA
$2,079,242,133
$15,014,414,494 13.8%
15.4%
-1.5%
DOE
$1,885,282,119
$25,470,394,508 7.4%
5.9%
1.5%
DOJ
$1,662,721,091
$5,822,276,014 28.6%
36.8%
-8.3%
STATE
$1,457,681,293
$3,516,726,748 41.4%
37.0%
4.4%
DOC
$1,406,821,538
$3,781,838,793 37.2%
50.8% -13.6%
DOL
$816,528,139
$2,470,467,659 33.1%
33.4%
-0.4%
TREAS
$684,951,844
$2,324,226,881 29.5%
29.4%
0.1%
EPA
$679,573,028
$1,633,070,291 41.6%
39.8%
1.8%
DOT
$676,743,907
$2,036,948,731 33.2%
43.3% -10.1%
HUD
$419,817,159
$1,104,800,503 38.0%
66.3% -28.3%
SSA
$359,807,149
$1,001,989,190 35.9%
36.7%
-0.8%
DED
$292,880,141
$1,629,285,462 18.0%
12.8%
5.2%
AID
$109,427,262
$1,366,536,180 8.0%
19.6% -11.6%

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

DOE
2.0%
NASA
2.2%
DOI
2.7%
USDA
3.3%

SOCIOECONOMIC GOALS: AGENCIES

STRIVE FOR GREATER UTILIZATION

16

FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010

SDB
4.26% 4.42% 5.15% 5.87%
7.91%
8(a)
3.74% 4.19% 4.76% 5.43%
5.80%
WOB
3.63% 3.71% 3.85% 4.07%
4.62%
HUBZone 2.10% 2.25% 2.42% 2.78%
2.88%
SDVOSB
0.91% 1.08% 1.58% 2.06%
2.64%

Socioeconomic Group Procurement Spending

FY 2006 - FY 2010
$40,000,000,000
$35,000,000,000
$30,000,000,000
$25,000,000,000
$20,000,000,000
$15,000,000,000
$10,000,000,000

$5,000,000,000
$0
FY 2006
SDB

FY 2007
8(a)

FY 2008
WOB

HUBZone

FY 2009
SDVOSB

FY 2010

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

Socioeconomic Goal Achievement

FY 2006 - FY 2010

1
7

FPDS-NG Contracts Data, FY 2010:

$533 billion on 946,689 active contracts;
$137 billion on 734,014 new contracts
FedBizOpps, FY 2010:
98,087 pre-bid notices*
* Includes: Pre-solicitation; Intent To Bundle
Requirements; Combined Synopsis/Solicitation;
Fair Opportunity/Limited Sources Justification;
Sources Sought; Justification & Approval

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

OPPORTUNITIES: HIDDEN IN PLAIN

SIGHT?

1
8

MULTIPLE AWARD CONTRACTS:

INCREASING PRESENCE

5,000
3,084

4,000
2,517

3,000

1,978
1,744

2,000
1,010
1,000
1,127

2,256

1,525

1,849

FY 2007

FY 2008

2,586

0
FY 2006

Large/Other

Small

FY 2009

FY 2010

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

6,000

1
9

MULTIPLE AWARD CONTRACTS: SB

IMPACTS
Small Business Share of MAC Dollars
FY 2006 - FY 2010
25.0%
20.0%

16.4%

17.1%

FY 2007

FY 2008

18.6%

19.7%

15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%

$90.0

FY 2006

$80.0
$15.9

$70.0

$13.5

$60.0

$11.3

$50.0
$40.0

$8.8

$6.7

$30.0

$20.0

$38.4

$54.6

$59.1

FY 2008

FY 2009

$64.9

$44.8

$10.0
$0.0
FY 2006

FY 2007

Large/Other

Small

FY 2010

FY 2009

FY 2010

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

14.9%

2
0

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

MULTIPLE AWARD CONTRACTS:

UNANTICIPATED CONSEQUENCES?

2
1

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

MULTIPLE AWARD CONTRACTS: NOT

GOING AWAY SOON

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

WHERE TO
LOOK FOR
OPPORTUNITIES
>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Agency FY05-FY10 SB Tot FY05-FY10 SB % FY05-FY10 Tot $ FY05-FY10 SB $ SB-Overall Growth %

DOD
$329,239,494,148
65.2%
30.6%
28.0%
-2.6%
DVA
$24,389,699,738
4.8%
77.9%
180.6%
102.7%
DHS
$22,613,114,047
4.5%
24.4%
24.9%
0.5%
GSA
$16,858,422,634
3.3%
22.4%
23.4%
1.0%
HHS
$16,557,217,411
3.3%
119.3%
72.0%
-47.3%
USDA
$14,936,657,542
3.0%
54.6%
63.0%
8.4%
DOI
$12,817,304,790
2.5%
26.9%
14.9%
-12.0%
NASA
$12,013,483,285
2.4%
19.8%
17.4%
-2.4%
DOJ
$9,172,617,072
1.8%
42.8%
24.1%
-18.8%
DOE
$8,781,688,704
1.7%
10.5%
104.7%
94.2%
All Other $37,352,315,935
7.4%
60.0%
53.7%
-6.3%
Total
$504,732,015,307

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

AGENCY SB SPENDING: WHO IS

DRIVING SMALL BUSINESS GROWTH?

23

SOCIOECONOMIC SET-ASIDES: STEADY

INCREASES OVER TIME

24

Largest Small Business Set-aside Programs,

Spending FY 2006 - FY 2010
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000

$10,000
$5,000
$0
FY 2006

FY 2007
SB

SA Type
SB
8a
SDVOSB
HUBZone
RSB
SDB
VET
BuyInd
HBCU
ESB
VSB

FY 2006
$17,244
$10,351
$373
$911
$399
$116
$0
$42
$42
$8
$1

FY 2007
$17,211
$11,794
$876
$1,235
$114
$99
$24
$36
$22
$3
$0

FY 2008

8a

SDVOSB

FY 2008
$19,436
$14,131
$2,236
$1,697
$206
$79
$70
$49
$23
$9
$0

FY 2009

FY 2010

HUBZone

FY 2009
$23,611
$17,033
$3,029
$2,809
$216
$57
$103
$41
$9
$10
$0

FY 2010
$28,109
$17,690
$4,389
$3,132
$76
$36
$101
$43
$15
$12
$0

FY06 - FY10
63.0%
70.9%
1076.8%
244.0%
-80.9%
-68.9%
320.3%
2.0%
-64.2%
44.0%
-123.8%

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

$30,000

IT SCHEDULE SPENDING: DECLINING

SALES

25

$12,000
$10,000
$4,598
$8,000

$4,371

$4,194

$4,082

$5,838

$5,212

$5,528

$4,800

FY 2007

FY 2008

FY 2009

FY 2010

$4,321

$6,000
$4,000
$6,753
$2,000
$0
FY 2006

Large/Other

Small

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

Large & Small Business Spending on the

IT Schedule, FY 06 - FY10

26

SMALL BUSINESS SCHEDULES: A

GROWING PRESENCE
8A STARS FY 2006 - FY 2010
$700,000,000
$600,000,000

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

$500,000,000
$400,000,000

$300,000,000
$200,000,000
$100,000,000
$0
FY 2006

FY 2007

FY 2008

FY 2009

FY 2010

8A STARS

VETS FY 2006 - FY 2010

$250,000,000
$200,000,000
$150,000,000
$100,000,000
$50,000,000
$0
FY 2006

FY 2007

FY 2008
VETS

FY 2009

FY 2010

FEDERAL MARKET ANALYSIS: WHERE

SB SHARE IS GROWING FAST

27

FSG
88
96
22
E
P
42
L
99
45
Y

FSG Name
LIVE ANIMALS
ORES, MINERALS AND PRIMAR
RAILWAY EQUIPMENT
PURCHASE OF STRUCTURES/FA
SALVAGE SERVICES
FIRE FIGHTING RESCUE SAFE
Technical Representative
JEWELRY & MISC ITEMS
PLUMBING, HEATING, WASTE
CONSTRUCT OF STRUCTURES/F

FY08-10 $ Size
FY08-10 SB $Size SB Mkt %
$188,445,892
$100,925,392
53.6%
$10,281,936,082 $5,110,309,503
49.7%
$738,070,095
$39,336,659
5.3%
$266,924,249
$63,018,495
23.6%
$1,752,714,631
$877,836,832
50.1%
$3,853,297,910 $2,596,329,992
67.4%
$7,406,020,884
$637,497,291
8.6%
$18,977,617,867 $2,517,511,995
13.3%
$488,599,139
$287,150,203
58.8%
$115,597,080,819 $29,935,152,374
25.9%

Overall
Small Bus
FY08-10 Value # of Recompetes
3-Yr Growth 3-Yr GrowthSB - Mkt Of Recompetes Next 24 Mos.
134.2%
574.0%
439.7%
$38,021,379
66
96.1%
484.6%
388.5%
$481,384,377
37
-58.9%
237.5%
296.4%
$672,234,588
6
-14.1%
217.0%
231.1%
$24,588,843
44
17.4%
144.1%
126.7%
$215,349,232
103
15.9%
64.6%
48.7%
$198,703,649
265
0.4%
46.1%
45.7% $3,047,978,751
439
-69.9%
-26.6%
43.4%
$764,796,898
780
-10.7%
28.1%
38.8%
$30,490,071
246
17.0%
54.2%
37.2% $28,548,335,539
3,704

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

Top 10 Accelerating Small Business Markets

Where Small Business Is Gaining Ground In the Federal Government

fo_name
NAVSEA HQ
COMMANDER
NAVAL AIR SYSTEMS COMMAND

IRS/CONTRACTS & ACQUISITION DIVIS

PR W6DS PEO SOL
DISA SKYLINE FIVE
NAVY, DEPARTMENT OF THE

NAVAL AIR WARFARE CENTER AIR DIV

DIVISION OF PROCUREMENT SERVICES

fo_city
Washington Navy Yar
QUANTICO
ARLINGTON
CRYSTAL CITY
Patuxent River
PATUXENT RIVER NAVA
WASHINGTON
Fort Belvoir
FALLS CHURCH
ANNAPOLIS
FORT GEORGE G. MEAD
NORFOLK
WASHINGTON
Patuxent River
BALTIMORE
Bethesda

fostate
DC
VA
VA
VA
MD
MD
DC
VA
VA
MD
MD
VA
DC
MD
MD
MD

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010 Grand Total
$2,170,142,252 $2,831,410,697 $2,758,152,788 $2,699,543,799 $2,061,075,583 $12,520,325,119
$2,032,419,843 $1,226,388,789 $911,795,817 $1,105,878,316 $1,808,025,629 $7,084,508,394
-$5,764
$1,223,873
$0
$1,218,110
$0
$0
$434,198,521 $959,162,414 $1,394,858,222 $992,291,132 $1,317,069,330 $5,097,579,620
$393,682 $38,564,646
$1,364,589
$40,322,917
$863,480,415 $982,658,707 $996,610,264 $497,798,633 $1,060,016,777 $4,400,564,796
$250,684,411 $874,247,747 $1,271,131,402 $745,711,057 $625,260,165 $3,767,034,782
$637,552,901 $583,311,560 $626,026,776 $713,266,162 $752,752,595 $3,312,909,994
$1,581
$2,517,840
$3,445,716
$4,756,270 $10,721,406
$979,388
$979,388
$482,498
$194,428
$406,554
$217,792
$26,536
$1,327,808
$77,338,239 $1,029,464,320 $635,815,746 $436,618,131 $391,630,655 $2,570,867,092
$263,917,606 $298,701,398 $259,838,290 $383,206,963 $569,732,429 $1,775,396,687
$3,030,464 $11,343,856 $55,426,580 $244,349,752 $1,185,284,038 $1,499,434,690
$4,420,614
$3,507,893
$3,623,150
$4,491,268 $25,087,860 $41,130,784

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

FUNDING OFFICES: WHO SPENDS THE

MONEY?

28

// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

GOVERNMENTWIDE DIRECTIVES:
POSITION FOR THE LONG TERM

29

>>>>>>>>>>>>>
// Fairfax County Govcon 12.15.2011

QUESTONS