Mari%meSecurityandtheRoleofNaval DiplomacyintheSouthChinaSea

ProfessorCarlThayer MIMAConferenceontheSouthChinaSea KualaLumpur,December1213,2011

Outline
1. StrategicOutlookforSoutheastAsia 2. CurrentNavalAc%vi%es 3. ProspectsforFutureNavalCoopera%on

StrategicOutlook
Globalnancialcrisis Chinasmilitarymoderniza%on U.S.steppedupengagement Increasedarmsprocurements

StrategicOutlook
ImportanceofMari%meDomain SalienceofTransna%onalIssues EverydaySecurityChallenges EvolvingSecurityArchitecure

CurrentNavalAc%vi%es
Chinas Yulin Naval Base Hainan

PLANNavalExercises
1. EarlyApril16warshipsfromNorth, EastandSouthSeaFleets 2. EarlyJuly10warshipsfromEastSea FleetinresponsetoUSROKexercise 3. LateJulylargestofitskind,most modernships,seniorcommanders 4. EarlyNovember100pla\orms+ marines

Chinas Naval Exercises 2010

ChineseNavalDiplomacy
ChinaASEANStrategicPartnership2003 EnhancedStrategicRela%onswith ASEAN LongtermCoopera%veFramework Agreements,19992000
Defenceclause

JointPatrolsGulfofTonkinwith Vietnam

ChineseNavyPortVisits

PLANFrigateXiangfanMakesPortCallin DaNang,Vietnam,October2011

ChinaVietnamAgreementonGuiding PrinciplestoSe`leSeaDisputes October2011

USS Michigan

USSOhio USS Florida

ThreeNuclearSubmarinesSurfaceinJuly2010 Pusan,SouthKorea;SubicBay,Philippinesand DiegoGarcia,IndianOcean

U.S.ChinaDefenceRela%ons

U.S.NavalDiplomacy
Coopera%onandReadinessAoatTraining CARAT
7ASEANmembers

Mul%na%onalPlanningAssistanceTeam MPAT
30countriesglobally

NavalAc%vi%es/NavalExchangeAc%vi%es
DaNangport,Vietnam

RegionalNavalAc%vi%es
Philippinesforcemoderniza%on andterritorialdefence
U.S.CoastGuardWeatherEnduranceCu`er

Vietnamforcemoderniza%on JapanMOUswiththePhilippines andVietnam

RegionalTrends
IncreasedDefenceExpenditures Ac%onreac%ondynamics Submarineacquisi%ons Newmilitarytechnologies Newgenera%onofaerialandunderseadrones Tac%calmiscalcula%on Crowded,contestedandvulnerabletoarmed strife

IncidentsofPiracyintheSouth ChinaSea,20092011*
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 IMB IMO

*Figuresfor2011:IMBendJuly;IMOrstquarter

2009

2010

2011

CBMsinSouthChinaSea
Failuretonego%ateCodeofConduct Declara%ononConductofPar%es(DOC)
Marineenvironmentalprotec%on Marinescien%cresearch Safetofnaviga%onandcommunica%onat sea Searchandrescue Combattransna%onalcrime

DOCGuidelines2005&2011
ParFestotheDOCwill conFnuetopromote dialogueand consultaFons
Progressonagreedac%vi%es andprojectsunderDOCto bereportedannuallyto ASEANChinaMinisterial Mee%ng ASEANwillconFnueits currentpracFceof consulFngamong themselvesbeforemeeFng withChina

Coopera%onAmongRegionalNavies
Since2002DOCcondencebuilding measureshavebeenconspicuousby theirabsence 201011:renewedinterestinDOCand CodeofConduct

ASEANNavalCoopera%on
ASEANDefenceMinisters
ASEANNavyChiefsMee%ng 2ndmee%ng2013

ASEANDefenceMinistersPlus
ExpertWorkingGrouponMari%meSecurity TermsofReference2011 ReporttoASEANDefenceSOM

ASEANNavalCoopera%on
ASEANSeniorOcialsMee%ng
DrapCodeofConduct

ASEANMarineForum
ASEANMarineForumPlus

ASEANChinaWorkingGrouptoImplement theDOC
TomeetJanuary2012inChina

ARFNavalCoopera%on
ARFpromo%onofCBMs IntersessionalMee%ngonMari%meSecurity
WorkPlanonMari%meSecurity Informa%onsharing,capacitybuildingtraining Noprac%calCBMsrelatedtoSouthChinaSea

CodeofConductonSoutheastAsias Mari%meDomain
FocusonASEANChinaCOCSouthChinaSea misplaced COCwillnotsolvesovereigntydisputesover islandsandfeatures ASEANdividedintoclaimantsandnon claimants ButASEANmembershaveterritorialand mari%meboundarydisputes

PutASEANsHouseinOrderFirst
Aimtopromoteregionalautonomyand ASEAnscentralityinsecurityarchitecture ASEANCommunityby2015 EastAsiaSummitdiscussedmari%mesecurity issues
IfASEANfaltersexternalpowersmaytake upleadership

CodeofConductonSoutheastAsias Mari%meDomain
Frameworkforstatebehaviourpending se`lementofsovereigntydisputes Withoutprejudicetosovereigntyclaims SecurityinSoutheastAsiamari%me domainisindivisible Interna%onalLaw/UNCLOSapplies everywherenotjustSouthChinaSea

CodeofConductonSoutheastAsias Mari%meDomain
Areaofcoverage
ZoneofPeaceFreedomandNeutrality(1971) TreatyofAmityandCoopera%on(1976) SoutheastAsianNuclearWeaponsFreeZone (1995)

Allmembers:coastal,ii`oralorlandlocked arestakeholders OpenCOCtoexternalpowers

Mari%meSecurityandtheRoleofNaval DiplomacyintheSouthChinaSea
ProfessorCarlThayer MIMAConferenceontheSouthChinaSea KualaLumpur,December1213,2011