BEAR.

Bear Tour, a case for a secular bear

market.

Stocks Remain Expensive – Shiller’

Shiller’s view Shiller's 10 Year PE
Period ending May 2005
In his book “Irrational 50
Exuberance,” Yale
Professor Robert 45

Shiller examines the 40

market’s valuation with

35
a more normalized view
of earnings. There, he 30

compares the market’s 25

price to a rolling 10-
year average of 20

earnings. Stocks 15

appear expensive using

10
this measure as well.
5

0
Jan-03
Jan-06
Jan-09

Jan-18
Jan-21
Jan-24

Jan-30
Jan-33
Jan-36

Jan-42
Jan-45
Jan-48
Jan-51
Jan-54
Jan-57
Jan-60
Jan-63
Jan-66
Jan-69
Jan-72
Jan-75
Jan-78
Jan-81
Jan-84
Jan-87

Jan-93
Jan-96
Jan-99

Jan-05
Jan-00

Jan-12
Jan-15

Jan-27

Jan-39

Jan-90

Jan-02
a couple of sites to read….

http://www.fpanet.org/journal/articles/2006_Issues/jfp0306-art7.cfm?renderforprint=1

especially this one for the long term perspective…

http://www.crestmontresearch.com/content/market.htm