KHNG HONG TI CHNH 2008

1. DIN BIN KHNG HONG Thng 6/2007: Hai qu phng h (hedge fund - mt loi qu c tnh i chng thp v khng b qun ch qu cht) ca Bear Stearns - ngn hng u t ln th 5 ca M - qu ng sau khi nh cc vo cc chng khon c m bo bng cc khon cho vay bt ng sn di chun M. Thng 7 - Thng 9/2007: Ngn hng IKB ca c tr thnh ngn hng u tin ti chu u chu nh hng bi nhng khon u t xu trn th trng cho vay di chun M. Trong khi , Ngn hng SachsenLB ca c phi nhn s cu tr t chnh ph. Ngy 14/9/2007: Ln u tin trong hn 1 th k, khch hng n n ko n ba vy i rt tin mt ngn hng ln ti Anh - Ngn hng cho vay th chp Northern Rock - ngn hng ln th 5 ti Anh. Ngy 15/10/2007: Citigroup - Tp on ngn hng hng u nc M - cng b li nhun Qu 3 bt ng gim 57% do cc khon thua l v trch lp d phng ln ti 6,5 t USD. Gim c iu hnh Citigroup Charles Prince t chc vo ngy 4/11. Ngy 17/12/2007: Cuc khng hong tn dng lan sang chu c vi nn nhn l Tp on Centro Properties, mt ch s hu ca cc ph bun bn ln M ti c sau khi tp on ny a ra cnh bo li nhun gim. C phiu Centro Properties tt gi 70% ti cc giao dch Sydney. Ngy 11/1/2008: Bank of America - ngn hng ln nht nc M v tin gi v vn ho th trng - b ra 4 t USD mua li Countrywide Financial sau khi ngn hng cho vay th chp a c ny thng bo ph sn do cc khon cho vay kh i qu ln. Ngy 16-17/3/2008:

Bear Stearns c bn cho Ngn hng u t M JP Morgan Chase vi gi 2 la mt c phiu. Ngy 7/9/2008: Cc D tr Lin bang (Fed) v B Ti chnh M ot quyn kim sot hai tp on chuyn cho vay th chp Fannie Mae v Freddie Mac nhm h tr th trng nh t M. Ngy 11/9/2008: Lehman Brothers tuyn b ang n lc tm kim i tc bn li chnh mnh. C phiu ca ngn hng u t ny tt gim 45%. Ngy 14/9/2008: Bank of America cho bit s mua Merrill Lynch vi gi 29 USD/cp sau khi t chi ngh mua li ca Lehman Brothers. Ngy 15/9/2008: y l ngy ti t nht ti Ph Wall k t khi th trng ny m ca tr li sau v khng b 2 to thp i ti M vo Thng 9 nm 2001. Lehman Brothers sp nh du v ph sn ln nht ti M; Merrill Lynch b Bank of America Corp thu tm; American International Group - tp on bo him ln nht th gii mt kh nng thanh ton do nhng khon thua l lin quan ti n cm c. Ngy 16/9/2008: Ngn hng trung ng cc nc trn th gii hng t USD vo cc th trng tin t vi n lc h nhit tnh trng cng thng v ngn chn s ng bng ca h thng ti chnh ton cu. C phiu AIG gim gn mt na. Fed cng b k hoch bm 85 t USD vo AIG v nm gi 80% c phn. Ngn hng Barclays ca Anh mua li mt phn ti sn ti Bc M ca Lehman vi tr gi 1,75 t USD. Ngy 25/9/2008: Washington Mutual Inc. (WaMu), mt trong nhng ngn hng ln nht M sp cng do nh cc rt ln vo th trng cho vay th chp. C quan Bo him tin gi lin bang M (FDIC) ot quyn kim sot WaMu v sau bn cc ti sn ca ngn hng tit kim ln nht M cho JPMorgan Chase & Co. vi gi 1,9 t

USD. Vi 307 t USD tng ti sn, WaMu tr thnh ngn hng b ph sn ln nht trong lch s M. Trong khi ti Washington D.C., cc thnh vin ch cht trong quc hi ng v nhng iu khon chnh trong k hoch gii cu 700 t USD. Ngy 29/9/2008: H vin bt ng khng thng qua k hoch gii cu th trng ti chnh M. Phn ng ngay lp tc vi quyt nh trn, ch s cng nghip Dow Jones tt gim gn 780 im - mc gim trong mt ngy mnh nht t trc ti nay. Ngy 1/10/2008: Thng vin M thng qua bn k hoch gii cu 700 t USD (t l 74-25) vi mt s im c thay i, bao gm: gia hn o lut ct gim thu thu nhp cho doanh nghip v c nhn (tnh s lm ngn sch tht thu 149 t USD); tng hn mc bo him tin gi ti C quan Bo him tin gi Lin bang t 100.000 USD ln 250.000 USD

2. NGUYN NHN V PHN TCH Nguyn nhn trc tip v r rng nht ca cuc khng hong ti chnh ln ny l s suy sp ca th trng bt ng sn. M, gn nh hu ht ngi dn khi mua nh l phi vay tin ngn hng v tr li li ln vn trong mt thi gian di
Nhng i gia ny gp tay to nn bong bng bt ng sn M nh: AFP

sau . Do , c mt s lin h rt cht ch gia tnh hnh li sut v tnh trng ca th trng bt ng sn. Khi li sut thp v d vay mn th

ngi ta x i mua nh, y gi nh ca ln cao; khi li sut cao th th trng gim chn, ngi bn nhiu hn ngi mua, y gi nh xung thp. C ba yu t chnh khi to nn bong bng trong th trng bt ng sn. Th nht, bt u t nm 2001, gip nn kinh t thot khi tr tr, Cc D tr lin bang M (Fed) lin tc h thp li sut, dn n vic cc ngn hng cng

h li sut cho vay tin mua bt ng sn (mc d nhng loi li sut cho vay tin mua nh do cc ngn hng thng mi n nh bao gi cng cao hn nhiu so vi li sut c bn ca Fed, nhng mc cao hay thp ca chng bao gi cng ph thuc vo li sut c bn). Vo gia nm 2000 th li sut c bn ca Fed l trn 6% nhng sau li sut ny lin tc c ct gim, cho n gia nm 2003 th ch cn 1%. Th nh, v phng din s hu nh ca, chnh sch chung ca chnh ph lc by gi l khuyn khch v to iu kin cho dn ngho v cc nhm dn da mu c vay tin d dng hn mua nh. Vic ny phn ln c thc hin thng qua hai cng ty c bo tr bi chnh ph l Fannie Mae v Freddie Mac. Hai cng ty ny gip vn vo th trng bt ng sn bng cch mua li cc khon cho vay ca cc ngn hng thng mi, bin chng thnh cc loi chng t c bo m bng cc khon vay th chp (mortgage-backed securities - MBS), ri bn li cho cc nh u t Ph Wall, c bit l cc ngn hng u t khng l nh Bear Stearns v Merrill Lynch. Th ba, nh trnh by trn, bi v c s bin i cc khon cho vay thnh cc cng c u t cho nn th trng tn dng phc v cho th trng bt ng sn khng cn l sn chi duy nht ca cc ngn hng thng mi hoc cc cng ty chuyn cho vay th chp bt ng sn na. N tr nn mt sn chi mi cho cc nh u t, c kh nng huy ng dng vn t khp ni vo, k c dng vn ngoi quc. im c bit y l bi v vic hnh thnh, mua bn, v bo him MBS l v cng phc tp cho nn n din ra gn nh l ngoi tm kim sot thng thng ca chnh ph. Bi v thiu s kim sot cn thit cho nn lng tham v tnh mo him tr nn ph bin cc nh u t. Bn cnh , bi v c th bn li phn ln cc khon vay cc cng ty khc bin chng thnh MBS, cc ngn hng thng mi tr nn mo him hn trong vic cho vay, bt chp kh nng tr n ca ngi vay. Vi ba l do trn, th trng bt ng sn tr nn rt nhn nhp, c rt nhiu ngi thu nhp thp hoc khng c tn dng tt nhng vn x i mua nh. c

th c vay, nhm ngi ny thng phi tr li sut cao hn v thng c cho mn di hnh thc li sut iu chnh theo thi gian (v d, nu tha thun l c vay vi li sut 6% v iu chnh sau 3 nm th ng ba nm sau li sut mi s c n nh theo thi im ). Tm li, nhm ngi ny thuc vo thnh phn c cho vay vi loi li sut di chun (subprime rate). Bt k kh nng tr c n ca nhm vay di chun, khon tin cho vay dnh cho nhm ny tng vn vt. Theo cc c tnh th n tng t 160 t USD nm 2001 ln 540 t vo nm 2004 v trn 1.300 t vo nm 2007. Fannie Mae mnh tay hn trong vic mua li cc khon cho vay y mo him do phi i u vi cnh tranh nhiu hn t cc cng ty khc, chng hn nh Lehman Brothers. Bn cnh , nhu cu mua li MBS ca cc nh u t vn cao bi v cho ti trc nm 2006 th th trng bt ng sn vn cha c du hiu n bong bng. Hn na, h cng phn no c trn an khi vn c th mua thong th cc hp ng bo him CDS t cc cng ty bo him v u t khc. Vic ny dn n cc cng ty bn bo him cng mnh tay hn trong vic bn CDS ra th trng, bt chp kh nng bo m ca mnh.

Din bin thay i gi nh trong thi k bong bng th trng nh .

V d vay cho nn nhu cu mua nh ln rt cao, ko theo vic ln gi bt ng

5

sn lin tc. Gi nh bnh qun tng n 54% ch trong vng bn nm t 2001 (nm bt u ct mnh li sut) n 2005. Vic ny cng dn n vn u c v li l gi nh s tip tc ln. H qu l ngi ta sn sng mua nh vi gi cao, bt k gi tr thc v kh nng tr n sau ny v h ngh nu cn s bn li tr n ngn hng m vn c li. Do , mt bong bng thnh hnh trong th trng bt ng sn. Do lo lng v din bin lm pht, Cc D tr lin bang (DTLB) bt u tng dn li sut, dn n vic th trng bt ng sn (BS) bt u chng li vo u nm 2006. Trong khi vo gia nm 2003 li sut cn bn ca Fed ch c 1% th vo gia nm 2006 n tng ln n 5,25%, bt buc cc ngn hng thng mi phi y li sut cho vay tin mua nh ln cao hn nhiu na. Tnh hnh li sut cao khin cng vay mua nh gim li. Gi nh bt u trt dc v cung vt cu. Nhiu ngi mua nh gi cao trc y bt u thy gi th trng ca cn nh ang s hu thp hn khon n m mnh ang vay. Bn cnh , rt nhiu ngi trong nhm vay tin vi li sut di chun bt u mt kh nng tr n khi li sut ca h b iu chnh tr li theo li sut mi hin hnh kh cao. H mun bn nh tr n cng khng c v gi nh thp hn khon n do th trng tt dc. H qu l h nh b nh cho ngn hng trng thu li. Vic ngy cng nhiu ngi khng c kh nng tr n ngn hng mi thng dn n vic tr gi ca cc MBS b tt dc. Nh ni lc u, c rt nhiu nh u t Ph Wall mua MBS. Do , khi MBS mt gi th ng ngha vi vic ti sn ca h cng b mt theo, dn n vic thiu ht vn. Bn cnh , cc cng ty bo him MBS, chng hn nh AIG, cng lm vo cnh khn n khi phi ng ra bo lnh ngy cng nhiu cc khon vay xu. Ngoi ra, cc ngn hng thng mi hoc cc cng ty cho vay th chp cn gi li phn ln cc khon vay cho mnh (thay v bn li cho Fannie Mae chng hn) cng nhn dng vn v tn dng ca mnh b cn kit khi phi ng u vi t l mt kh nng tr n ngy cng cao ca ngi vay thuc nhm di chun. Tm li, bi v c nhiu mi lin h chng cht gia ngi vay v nhiu thnh phn cho vay trc tip cng nh gin tip, vic tt dc ca th trng BS nh
6

hng trc tip n th trng ti chnh ni chung. Mc lan ta v nghim trng ca vn l do s mua i bn li cc cng c ti chnh pht sinh (cc MBS v CDS) ko qu nhiu cc thnh phn u t, trong cng nh ngoi nc, vo cuc chi trong khi lut l ca sn chi th vn thiu st hoc khng r rng. Cuc khng hong t lan t th trng bt ng sn sang th trng tn dng v cui cng dn n khng hong ti chnh ti M v trn sang nhiu nc chu u, khin nhiu cng ty ln ph sn. 3. NHNG TC NG N TH TRNG CHNG KHON VIT NAM Cc nghin cu gn y cho thy, cn bo ti chnh th gii cha c nhng tc ng ln trc tip n nn kinh t ni chung v TTCK Vit Nam ni ring. C s ca nhng kt lun trn l tnh lin thng v hi nhp ca nn kinh t Vit Nam vi nn kinh t v th trng ti chnh th gii cha cao. Tuy nhin, nu xem xt mt cch thu o c th thy rng mc d khng chu nh hng trc tip nhng TTCK Vit Nam cng chu s tc ng nht nh t cuc khng hong ti chnh ton cu. S tc ng ny biu hin trn cc phng din sau y: Mt l, khng hong ti chnh vi sc lan ta nhanh chng tc ng n cc quc gia vn l th trng xut khu hng ho ca nhiu doanh nghip nim yt nh M, Lin minh Chu u, Nht Bn, Hn QucKhng hong ti chnh lm sc mua ca cc th trng trn gim st nghim trng nh hng ng k n k hoch doanh thu v li nhun ca cc doanh nghip nim yt lm gi c phiu ca cc doanh nghip ny vn ang st gim li kh c kh nng phc hi. Hai l, khng hong ti chnh lm cho cc nh u t nc ngoi bn rng c phiu, tri phiu. Tnh t u thng 8/2008 n u thng 10/2008 cc nh u t nc ngoi lin tc bn rng c phiu vi tng gi tr ln 1.278 t ng v khong 13,5 ngn t ng i vi tri phiu. Vi gi tr bn ra khng l ny gp phn khng nh vo s st gim ca ch s VN-Index v Hastc-Index thi gian qua. Trc , nhiu kin trn an cc nh u t l s khng c chuyn cc nh u t ngoi rt vn v phn ln cc qu u t nc ngoi ti Vit Nam l cc qu ng. Ti cho rng, kin trn l khng thuyt phc. V xt v bn cht th cc qu ng khng mua li chng ch pht hnh cho nh u t nhng h hon ton c th thc hin ti cu trc danh
7

mc u t ca mnh, trong c vic bn chng khon thi im ny mua vo thi im khc hoc bn th trng ny u t vo th trng khc hoc u t vo th trng ngoi hi. Thc t cho thy, ng ni t ca nhiu quc gia b nh hng nng bi lm pht mt gi so vi ng USD vi chc phn trm trong khi s gim gi ca ng Vit Nam so vi ng USD v cc ngoi t mnh khc l khng ng k. Kh nng nh u t nc ngoi nhn nh rng ng Vit Nam s tip tc mt gi cng nh cc ng tin khc nn bn chng khon mua ngoi t nhm kim li l rt c th. Nu kch bn din ra ng nh h d on th khi h s bn ngoi t tip tc u t vo chng khon. Th ba, tc ng r nt nht ca cuc khng hong ti chnh ton cu n TTCK Vit Nam l yu t tm l. Tht ra, yu t tm l trn TTCK th quc gia no cng c, c bit l cc quc gia c th trng ny mi hnh thnh. Yu t tm l lm cho TTCK Vit Nam bao phen lm vo tnh trng mt cn i cung cu: khi gi chng khon ln th mua khng c, ngc li khi gi rt th ch ton lnh bn m khng c lnh mua. S d c hin tng ny l do phn nhiu cc nh u t Vit Nam cha chun b kin thc v bn lnh cng nh kinh nghim cn thit tham gia mua bn chng khon, mt khc mi trng thng tin cha tht s m bo cho thng tin n vi tt c cc nh u t cng mt lc v chun xc. Vic u t theo m ng gy kh khn trong vic hoch nh chnh sch v iu tit th trng ca c quan qun l v tr thnh mnh t mu m cho cc hnh vi lm gi, giao dch ni gin, tung tin n tht thit trc li. Tm l mua bn theo m ng li tr nn nng n hn khi nn kinh t b lm pht. Mi khi cc thng tin v vic tng gi xng du, NHNN tng li sut c bn hoc ch s gi tiu dng c cng b u nhn c phn ng tc thi t TTCK. Trong giai on ny, cc nh u t nc ngoi c xem l nhn t dn dt th trng. ng thi mua vo hoc bn ra ca h cng s lm cho gi chng khon tng hoc gim theo. Nhng t cui thng 9/2008 n nay, rt nhiu thng tin tt v nn kinh t c pht i nh li sut c bn v gi xng lin tc gim, ch s gi tiu dng gim ng k khng nhn c nhng phn ng tch cc no t th trng v ch s chng khon c 2 sn Thnh ph H Ch Minh v H Ni u gim. iu cho thy nh u t Vit Nam khng cn quan tm n cc thng tin
8

tt t nn kinh t trong nc na. Ci m h quan tm l din bin tnh hnh giao dch cc TTCK M, Anh, Nht Bnth no v s c hnh vi u t tng t. Thi gian gn y, din bin ca cc ch s chng khon Vit Nam lun cng chiu vi ch s ca cc th trng trn. Vy l cuc khng hong ti chnh ton cu chuyn hng tm l u t ca cc nh u t Vit Nam: t u t theo nh u t nc ngoi trong nc sang u t theo cc nh u t ngoi nc. Tm l ny tr thnh mt ro cn khng nh cho cc n lc ca Chnh ph nhm vc dy TTCK. Nhiu chuyn gia ch ra rng, khi th trng ti chnh c bin ng mnh mt hoc nhiu nc pht trin, cc TTCK ton cu c lin thng ln hn rt nhiu so vi thi k n nh v Vit Nam cng khng nm ngoi quy lut . Th t, tm l gi xung lm mo m vai tr l phong v biu phn nh sc khe nn kinh t v e da tnh thanh khon ca th trng. l khi, gi chng khon xung qu thp th ngi bn li khng mun bn nhng ngi mua cng s khng dm mua do vn cn lo s chng khon s tip tc gim na. Khi t khng hong nim tin th trng s chuyn sang mt cuc khng hong khc nguy him hn nhiu: khng hong v tnh thanh khon. Th nm, mc d khng phi pht sinh mi y do cuc khng hong ti chnh ton cu nhng TTCK Vit Nam vn cn tn ti rt nhiu nhng vn khc m trong phm vi bi vit ny chng ti cha c iu kin cp n. C th nh cc vn v khung php l, vai tr qun l, gim st ca Nh nc, tnh minh bch ca th trng