FEASIB'IL'IITY STUDIES READly FOIR I"NVOILVE,MENIT OiF' PRIIVAT'E INVESTMENT UND,ER 119 981 ,POWIEIR POLICY

11

E,N'G:RIIG.M IIL,IA,S,S, E:INGR. JAVED RASHID

FEAS,IBI~ITY STlJD,IES, READY F'OR INVOLVEMENT' ,OF PRIVATE lNV:ESTMENT UNDER 1'9'SPOWERP'O~ICY
ENGRS. G.M. ILIAS:1 &: ,.lAVED RASHID

BY

Inventory studies in the northern. mOlultainous areas of Pakistan including NWF.P~Nonhero. Areas as well as 01:11 barrages and canal~faJls in the irrlga.~~onsystems of low-lying areas of the eountry have revealed hydro-pcl''\v,er potential at more than one hundredindividual sites, So. far 13 feas.~biHty stll!1di:eshave belen pre-pared in ~he public sector and are being 0 ffiered to the private sector for sd~~ng u" ,~wet p~aJlts.A nIUTI.'[DC~rn" of pf'O~eets were i~i,t~aredlby the Govemment .of NWFP and Letters of Suppolrt (lQS) were issued underthe Government of Pakistan Polley Frame-work of 1994-~}5.However" no concrete re~lI.!~ts were ach~eved. Onlythree ofthese projects stand saUoc,ated to private Investers bu t thelr fate is unknown. The Govem.mernt of Pakistan has, reviewed the whole issue of 'Pr~v,ale Power Po'~icy ilindfinaHy issued the RevisedPolicy fo,r NeW' Private Independeat PowerProjects in lJuly 1998.l'his poUey WS mueh more favoerable for hydro~poW'erprojects thanthe previous one. It provides a ~arlfr~ strucrures more adequate for hydro-power and ensures more transparent procedures. The policy stipclates further tha~ the psojeet sites should be offered forfPP's prefer,aMy on the basis of fellisibihty studies prepared in the public sector. There are five p'liojectsavailable in NWFP for early issuance ofR,e:que8~ for Propesals (RFP) ~o invite tnvestors under internanona! Ccmperitive Bidd~.ng (ICfI.) Cor ~.m.p]emen~at~o'l]j their as .feas~.bUily studiesase readily availahle, The Ioca~~on are : S 1. Khan KhwaJr near Besham, Swat District" , . , "" 12 MW 2. Go]en near Kaghoz~> Ch~twalDistrict " .. " .. ".,., .. ,." " •.. ]00 MW 3. D~liJaK'hwar fH;=ar B~hrain" Swat District , .. , . , .... , ... " .. " . " , . " .. " . 35 MW 41. Summar Gah upstream nf Dassu, Kohistan District .. _. _.. _, . " , . " 28 MW 5.. Bata1 Khwar near Utr;QiF. Swat District ,."".,." ..... , .... ,.". _ .. " _. , 8 MW An integreted ~ran,sm~ssiofistudlyhas been carried o~t to traJnsport the energy into lhe Nationa1 Grid whilst cesasare ~obe lJ~me, by the respective projects .. Presently preparations are be1.ng undertaken by Gevemment of NWFP tn C:(!IHabora~~O'l1J the with Federal Government Institutioes Like PPIB and NEPRA ~oattractinvestment for ~bese projel(;~s" As t:he lead ~irm'e hy,de~ plillnts is re lative~y ]orng,er.i t ts strong I.y recommended ~hal work Ol1Ji[]'1,elf for implementation be stan.edimmedi:are~y to ensure their conHn.is:S'~(IiIThir1lg 2005-200,6. 8y that t~me~ by the SlU'P~US tfuenTla]powe,r is expected to. be tuUy utilized to meet the demand of the coming )p,ears.

COMuhant to GTZ I.IMeiiP.!'!!kistain GerrnaaTechaiaal HydmD-Elecb'ruc PowerD~V(;;lopmellt in .Pak:~stan'·

:2

Cooper:llI(lon foll'"Progr,aJl'IUM

(Of

N:ational

Ellgill!t,:e:r:i~_g~(lon(}rn~s,t to OTZ IJncle'rP<lkistan-Germa['J

for Natioilloiil] Hydlro-Ei,ecooc PCW¢( Develop:m:ent

Teehnieal

COGper.;'!~ioi~ "Pwg~amme for

in Pakistan",

BA:CKGROUN".n IfI!ven:t:ory~s~li,ujjiesin~bem.ounmj nous ar'ws ofPa1d:!i~an inc] udingthe N\VFP. the Northern Areas and Azad Jammu &; Kashmir as wen ,U on. barrages; and canal-falls in the i,mga~ioJiJlsy.stems in the plains: and ~ow-[ying areas of the country have revealed. hydropower potential at more than a hundred ~ndividua~ s,ileg. Someof the s:~tes,are enli sted in the T,ab le 1. So far 13 fea.sib~Ii~y studies have be ern.prepaeed ~III.the pub ~ic sectorand earn III offered to the e priva~e: sector for setting uppowerplants al! the: propo sed sites, A number of pre] eels were initiated by the Government of tf\¥FP and Letters of Support (LOS) were issued under the Govemment of Pakistan lPaHey Frsmework
achieved. On~y three ofthesepre]

of ~.994/9:S. However, no concrete results were eets stand aUoctlJltooto, prj v,1lItenvestors but nodl~n2; can. be said i

about their fate, REVISED POWER POLICY The G!Jv,emm.6n~ of Pakistan MmOunoed in .lhJ~.y 1'998 the Revi sed Po ~ky for new priv ate Independent Power Pmduce:rs ([PP" S)I This pol icy j s much more favourabl,e for hydmpoo,wer projects, than the previous Cines. It pl10vides a ~arIff structure which WSas wen .~. ne'l:lI~oo~o o hydropower as itws.for coal-fired ..p~anm and ~tensures more ~n3lfls.parentpr.oeedures. The policy
a.

stipulates

that the project

sites should be offered for IPP's.

preferab~y on the basis of

comprehemsi ve femib:iIi~y .stud~esPFrepared in ~he pu blic sector,

READY PROJECTS

Thereare five projects wnN"1NFP whose f;eas~biHty studiesare readilyavailable, Request for Propasals (RFP) to invite private investors under Intemational Competrtive Bhid~ng (illCB) [or nnp],emen.t3:twon.can be prepsred and issued. without loss (,I f ti me,
These five proj'ec~s arelocated ~n SWaJt, Kohistan and Chitral Districts and are v,ery favourable .18 far as capital and energy prcduction eosts are concerned , The loeaaionsare: 1. .Khan Khwar near Desbam,. Swat District " 2. Golen. near Kalhoz~~ ChitraJ Di,stnct . , . . • . . . . • . . . . • . . . .. , .. . . , . . . ..
+ •••• + •• + • • • • • •

••

72 MW

3.
4.

Dara Khwa~ ne~ Bahrain, S WaJlt D[s~rict ,. . . _. . .

Summar Gah upstreMl,of Dassa, Koh~s~alilDistrict Batal Khwar near Ulror, Swat District .. , , ,

•••

UIO MW 35 MW
28 MW ,g MW

..."".........."..,.

S.,

,. ,

, .. , .

The site .~oI.yu1iltsofthese projects ar-e In.the: attached charts A to E. The oountry map at F' shows the leeations of 13,sites fur which feasibiHty studies have been com.p~e~ed. The p.mjec:ts.at Sr. Nos. ~.~o 3 .ilIilove are ~oc,ated WI1I tbeseareas where e~ectric~ty .suP'P,~y for~()ca~
popldat~on iSidready available and the powier primarily be provided to the National Grid, The pre] ectsat Sr. N 01S.4 and 5 aboveere located in those .,eas where only very weak power supply or none at al ~ is available for .~m~al opulation, who will be the pri mary be.ne.ficiary of p

wm

61

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.,_

_ .......

._.-

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---

••

.....

--

----

_.

--_

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.Pa,. No.121 , these projects. The surptus power will be transmi ued to thegrid, Am inl~egrnh~)IJIransmission :study has also been carried out~o' tran~poril the ,energy :lirom mese t pbmts~ntothe National Grid whHs~ costs '0 f indi.vidual ~ines are to be borne by the coneemed projects.

I.

Kb.aD Kbw3,r .Hyd,ro-pDwler

F'floj,ect

The project is located across the River Khan. Khwar in the Swat district Tnt': KhamlKJlwar
is a. tributary of the Mndus:River. TfiJeproject area is accessible by road and is at a dissanee of 245m from Rarw.aJpindillslamabad and 270bn from Peshawar ..
''if'1l. _

water wi 11be transferred from there thmugb a.headrace tunnel, a pressure S:hafl.and a pressure tunnel to the power house to be ~OCi:litedon the righ~ bank of'the River Endus on t~e Kara~orum Highway!, 3m South of Beshaen Qila,

. . m ... ated .- h,-c .1He ds .,am ~s ~oca. .. a't· A.m. f'I on.; Beshsm ~·M. .u...... ····"',,"''''''fa 1I ad ac'rns'" Khan . ti"L'W"[f "';ve" T~,'" ~"'tJ"'. _ !.!! ... '" ._. I'I!..U_ n...
jT g_ ••. _".

The 30 m high concrete dam. wi 11ereatea reservoir of about 1.1 mi] ~ion cubic meter total. capaei ty ~ OU~ of which 4(J10~OOOub ic meter wi ~~be used as ]lve storage for fOllFhoUF c daily peak operatien during dry season,

The powerhouse is ofp~ttype with a.27.S m. subsurface dep~h.The buildins; wiU be 15,S m above Utegrilund. ~t will house two vertical shaft. Francis ~ypeturbine-generating sets of .34.25 MW each 8Jndo,ne hori zontal shaft impulse llubine of 3.. S MW eapaci ty. 6 Ta~~raceand ouUelt smmcrure win discharge the water into the:Indus River.
The to~a] anneal production of electricity is ,es~i.maoodat 306 G\WI~ (Jut of which lOS G'Nh win be produced during peak hOUTS. The finn capacity ~s70. 'I MW. S3J~elil:t Fea.tll. res (Klb an Kbwa r)
L Op:llmi21ed Maximum .output DeS~blWl.ed Max~mUJm. Discharge Gross H,e;ad "" TctalProject Cost .. , , MW .3:5m]/s , .............................•.. 25·4m "" .. US$86 m1JiUionsor US$11901kW ~nstl.lined ,

,...............n

2.
3. 4.

:5. 6,.

Energy Cost (!.nclud~.ng tr.ansmissi,o-n) EIR , ", ,

_ .. " .•..............
"

3.JUS oents.ti:i:Wh "....... ... . . . . . . .. 17.4%

2..

Go~er:JJ o~Hydro-:power Pr~jeji!t G

Golen Gel Hydropower Project is located. in ~he Chitral d]stnct on the ~efl bank of the Mastuj River near the confluence of Mastujl and Golen Gal rivers, The weir and! ~a~era~ intake wm be about 1 km upstresm ofthe Bub uka vmagc. From the weir and the intake there win be a bead. race chsnnel (des,ign,ed as an open ,c,nann:el) which will be the ~in_k between sand tmp oodl the headrace~unn el, Th c tu nnel is designed no~ Qrdy as apart of eenduit system but also, asa storage used for peaking during the wintermonths. The headrace tunnel wm discharge the now into the comb~t\latlon-of verticaland hori zontal
68

G.M. lilal,

J,(weti

Rashid

P4per No.221

pressure shafts which will in tum feed the turbines for the generation of'hydropower. The tailrace will deliver the water to M,asruj River,

69

S alienI F,ealu res (Go~eDI ol) G

1. 2,.
,::J _
"I'

4, 5. 6,

Designed CapMity (P,e~lontype turbines) '"' . . . . . . . . . .. 106MW (total three units) 'Gross, H,ead ,,"""" '""" " " "" . " .........• , "• ~l:5m D' 'D"- -L",- '!I'''''''--]' es~gn ~mlm:rg:eJ ,~ruJ~:'f Ave~age Annual Ou,tpu~ OifEner,gy '. ,. " ,., " 436GWh Estimated CapnaJ Cost _ ", " US! '92.530 mrumOin~ $8131k:W Cost of Generation Oncludfng transm ission 3.8 (US ,oernts!kW1l uiP'to Di,r)
+++, , , •••••••• + + ,.. '" ~, ~, ~ ~ ~ .. ~ ~ ~ ,~ ,~ ,~ .~ + ~ ~ ~ ~
ii ~ i ~ • ~ ~ ~ '" '" ' ~ • • • • • • • • • • ••

+,

•••

•••••

"

The proj eet is located on the River Daral Khwar also Wl1iI S:wa~ di strict, The Daral the Khwar is D,tributary of'the SW8't River. Theprej ect area is acciessib~eby road at a distance, of t ,8S km from Peshawar. 'The sit;e i5 near Bahrain ,a~the oonfllllenceo,fDara] KliJiW,3!f and
the Swat River,

The weir will be of about 410m length and 3 milei,ght It wHI divert the water to 3. la~era~ ~ntHelmd from the:rethroug~ a. short 'connec~ruon tunnel withgravel ,spi]I of SSm aggregate ],ength to a sandtrapanda short headrace cans]. I~win be; locaeed 4.. kID North 5
West of Bahrain at n1B m .. .sJ. (1]'1Daeel Khwar river, The W!!i~er I be transferred from ~herethmiu2~ a headrace umnel and ,l.9iin embedded If! enstock to thepowerhouse to be located em. the rigbt bank of Swat R~ver on (he main M ~n~ora~Kalamroad 2 km south of Bahrain. The total annaal production the peak: energy. of e~ectrici.~ywill be l 48 GVill.,ou:t ,of which 29' G\Vh.wiU be partly ,adjacent

wm

An outdoor 13.2kV switch-yard will be; located partly on lite roofofand

to the pow,erbouse and wi ~l be eonneeted to the National Grid.

s.aJI~eqtFeatures (naral, Kb.war)
1. 2, :3.
4. 5.

6..

Oplifnlzed POW-for Slatworo Orl.l.tput ....." .., . . . . . . . . . . •.. , . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. J.5MW Designed. Di.sd'l3irge ., , . , " ., , . ". , , , , .. , lSm]/s 'GiJ1os:$,Head . '. " •• " • • . . . . . . . " , •• " , , ' , . . " " ' .•• ' . . , , . . . " '., '.. • " 318m. Tota1Projee:t. Cost USS; .38 mmions OJ US$~ 0801k:W installed EWlef.ID' COOl (irl:1lclud.~li1Ig wal] smi ssien) . . . . . • • . . . . . . . . . . .. • ., ... 3. .68US c~"1lrslkWb EIRR " ,., .. , .. ,." .' . , , .. " " ,,'.'. " " "" ' , ' , . , . ". ]4.7%,
+• ++• " •

Summar Gab Hyd.ropow~r P.rojectis ~oc-a.~edn Summar Gah Gesak whk:h is a ~eft bank o U'mbutary '0f the Rrver Indu S31bout 3 a. krn north west '0fDassu. This ssea faUs under the district oom.inistration of Dassu which is the Headquarters of Kohistan afle'l. The powerhouse is locam:edbelow the Karakoram. H~gmtwaya!lt vmag;,e Gossk situated on the 1'8ft bank of Summar Gah.

A wei r

heigh~ ~oc-ated. at Gosak wm divert the water via am ~ntake and ,81. and s trap ~o a canol connected to, a mnnet. Thena penste ck w~ ~lead the water rotbe power ~
0

r 5.() In

house. The tailrace, will take fll.e water to the River Indus.

Paper No.22.1

S alient Features (SiIII mm,ar Gab)

'~. 2.. 3. 4. Caplacizy .••• , Gross Head Discharge. '""", . , . , . , _ Catchment an~a .. "
+ •.•.• , •••••••••••••

, ,', ,
, • -

-, . _, , _, _,
••••••••••••••••

, , , ", , , , ". 2.8.08MW , . , , .. - . , - - - . .. 3'9'9"5m 9.. 0~nJ/s 0 ' __. .. _ [4 7km1

, •• -

5. 6.
7.

Annua.l Ener-gy Total cost of project" •...............

Cost per kW , ,

, - - - .. , ,,

"
,,

101.50 Wh US$25.65 mHho:l1

-

US$ 9BkW

3. 5.

Cost of Energy (including transmission)

,.,." ,.. 5 J US c'entslkWh

Ralal Kb,Wltr Hydropower :e.[oject

the Upper Swat area across the River Batal Khwar, The Tyw~ian weir 6.30 m h.~ghiocru:,edatUtror will divert the water to the power house from , where the water will .flow into Gabral river.
This project is also locstedin SaneRt Features (Ba,tal Khwar)
1. 2. Designed Discharge .. , """" Head . . . . . • . • . . . . . . . . . . '.
++• • • • • • • • •

- - - . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 5.7'8m1Js 176m

• • • •.• +, • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • .

3. 4.
5.

Design Capacity Tara] Cost ."

,

". , , "

Cost of Energy (including transmission) . _. "" " .. "

- . . . . . . . " " , , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8 lOOkW . " .. US$ 30.99mj~hon ($3.826fkW) -6.3US centsikWh

ECONOMICEV

ALUA'TION OF PROJECTS

The economic analysis of High Head Hydroelectric Power Plants.has been carried out by means cf

Thermal Equivalence, Basis;

and Benefits Quantified on Basis of LRMC

Beonemic analysis methodology assigns benefits to the hydro on basis or equivalent avoided thermal plant. The development of this equivalent thermal plans has, however, to be done with care. The hydro output can be stated to be: o •

A capacity centribution designated by the capacity available for 4 hrs a day plant.
throughout the year or for 365 days, An energy contribution designated by the' energy generated by the hyde] power

It needs to be mentioned that most hydr'ij plarits have the capacity avai~ab].e to be less than the installed capacity, In caseofrun of river plant the firm capacity lS say about 25% ofthe installed

capaci ty, Only where invesfmentsare made to' construct dai lY storages does this ratio improve to say about 90%. Thus the equivalent thermal avoided is not equal to th,e installed ,capaci.ty of the hydro but is in fact equal to the firm capacity avail able 4 hrs a day for 365 days, Thi s benefit is about:

4 clkWh for energy supplied during the 4 peak hours

71

.Pqtr No..l11

The energy c(l)nlriblt~OJ:iJiS ClIff peak do not resultm

~11I. act f

only results inavoided

.m.eland O&M

,COS{ OIf

any a,voided thermal capadty and. th.erefore thethermal power P'~:M1l

This benefit. is about 3.0 clkWb. The benefits

0 f the

hydel are therefore: :albou;~ 6:00 $1k:.W rs 64·.8fkWla or : 4: clkVilh ene~ (peal) : 3 cfkVlh en~rgy

Capacity

s .5.41k.W/m)

but the ,capacity benefit is usually Jess than theinstalled capacity.. The o~her and rigorous method 'of 'economic analysis is by quanl~fying the benefits on basis of ~he voltage level a~ w'hiJCili the hydl1o, is to' be eoaneeted. These are defined by the long Run M,argina~ Cost (LRMC) of the system aitt!he .re~eval1itvQI.t:age t~vet .These for t'heW APDA 8ys~em are: Capacity $IkW Generation

Peak EneTIY
cJt\Vh,

O:ff:.peak Energy ~W1l

2.98 3JJ8

220
~32

• •

66
11

Level tV Level leV Level tV Level kV Level

43:5.0
563.0

3.49'
3.58 3.61 3.81

64:9..0 68,3.0
786.,0

3.17

3.:Ui
3.99

4.87

The LRlvICapp~o!ildl captures the system impact of adding newhydro f'adHty and it also ,ciap~ure-s impact of the geogmphi!c ]oC3ltion i.e ..distance of proposed hydro .irom t.be grid or the load ,g,ys~em. It also C3!pirures the variatJon .in sys~em costs by mOI1I!hs. (The LRJ..fC is Icalcul ated
on a monthly basis). Economic ana~ysis of above, project'S is :summarized: rRR.% ,., NP'V1 M.Rs
1424+.0

IRR%
17'(J6

NPVI M.RB

•
'.'

.KhanKhwar Go.~en Go!

D.a~ K.hwar SummarGah Bat13l1 K1lwar

H.39'
17.U

14..68
rn2.17 13.08

2 I 92.0. 13 21 '90.0
e.

1-

18.70 ~L15 l4.20

1.110. ..0 1200.0 3.21 125 ..0

11. s.e

70.0

15.40

72

a.M. BIIu"

J;,ve4 RflShid

Paper No'. 221

,CONCLUSIONS
. The above indicates tbat- the proposed hydroelectric additions will results in savingswhen

compared to equivalent thenna1 additiens. The totalsystem costs will therefore be less than what these would be if'the demand was met b,y thermal generating facmci,e-s. This would also,trans~aCe int,o a lower tariff at consumer level. :ID. iew-of'relstively I,ong lead time of these projects it is, 8,trongly fe~t that their construction v ,should be tak,en. in hand as soon as rOlssible to ensure their commissioning by the year 200512006. By that time 'the surplus power oftherm.alplants (IPP'.s) in the eouatry isexpected to have been fully utmz.ed by-the a:ddit~ona1po,wer demand in. the coming yea.rs. BIBLIOGRAPHY I. Feasibility 2. Feasibility 3.. Feasihility 4. Feasibility studies of 1994 prepared by SHYDO ,_GTZ for Batal Khwar and Summa.r Gab. stl.Kfy of 1994 prepared by HEPO(W APDA) ~GTl. for Golen Go1. studies of1996 prepared by SHYDO - OTZ for Khan ,Khwar'., study of 1997 prepared by SHYDO _ GTZ for Daral Khwar,

73

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GftAVE L SP IL1JNG STR UClURE

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S,UMIMAR. GAB HYDROPOWER PROJECT

SURGE 1iANK.

PENSTOCK

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BAT AL KHW AR HYDR'OPOWER PROJECT

'IlUiI!!'rn

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PENSTOCK ~ POWERHOUSE

~ I·.. . .
(

IlA1lI1AL RIVER

SPn.LWA Y .PIPE

~.

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400

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TAll.RACB CANAL

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