Nigeria Electric Power System Model and some results from its test run

Purpose of model: to evaluate the long-term performance of the Nigeria Electric Power System: 2005 - 2050
Nigeria Electric Power System: Generating Capacity Sector

CapWPerm Hydro Plants

CapUnderRev Startup Rate CAGR

Gen Cap New Capacity

GenCap with Installed
OthersNew under under
Review approved permission GenCap Proj construction capacity scrapped gen
licensing initiation completion rate
application capacity
Startup
ThermNew Permission
refused application cancelled scrapping rate
Thermal Plants
HydroNew application rate
Cancellation rates Other
approval rate
refusal rate

<Future Generation
Capacity needed>

Momodu (2011) System Dynamics Model of the Nigeria Electric Power System Page 1
 Electricity Generated
60 M

45 M
MWh/Year

30 M

15 M

0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Time (Year)
Electricity Generation[Thermal] : Current Electricity Generation[Others] : Current
Electricity Generation[Hydro] : Current

Momodu (2011) System Dynamics Model of the Nigeria Electric Power System Page 2
 Financial Sector
4B

-2 B

-8 B
$

-14 B

-20 B
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Time (Year)
Systems Financial Profit : Current Total Revenue Stream : Current
Total Cost Stream : Current

Momodu (2011) System Dynamics Model of the Nigeria Electric Power System Page 3
 Installed Capacity
60,000

45,000
MW

30,000

15,000

0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Time (Year)
Installed capacity[Thermal] : Current Installed capacity[Others] : Current
Installed capacity[Hydro] : Current Installed capacity[Thermal] : Current

Momodu (2011) System Dynamics Model of the Nigeria Electric Power System Page 4