Material
resources
and
low‐carbon


energy
technologies

Sangwon
Suh



Bren
School
of
Environmental
Science
and
Management

University
of
California
in
Santa
Barbara


1

 Contents

•  Introduc>on

•  Demand
side
issues

•  Supply
side
issues

•  Unique
proper>es

•  Envisaging
the
future


2

 Objec>ves

•  Provide
an
overview

–  Demand
side

–  Supply
side

–  Unique
proper>es

•  Build
a
common
understanding

–  What
should
be
expected?

•  Learning
process
(both
ways)

•  Iden>fy
opportuni>es
for
collabora>on

3

Introduc6on


4

 Suppose
that...

•  In
Jan
2004,
you
happened
to
spend
$500
to

buy
something
looks
useless
like
this:

•  In
Jun
2008,
you
put
it
on
the
market
and
got

astonishing
$11,000
out
of
it.

•  Excited,
you
decided
to
invest
$100,000
on
it.

•  Sold
it
two
months
later,
it
became
$7,600.

•  Which
material
is
this?

–  Rhodium


5

 High‐tech
metals

•  Metals
strongly
>ed
to
emerging
technologies.

•  Unique
characteris>cs
in
supply‐demand

dynamics.

•  Geopoli>cal
influence.


6

 Pu^ng
things
in
perspec>ve

•  September
2010:
Dispute
over
Senkaku

(Japanese)
or
Diaoyu
(Chinese)
islands.

•  The
Washington
Post
Oct
30,
2010:


“China
on
Saturday
assured
the
United
States

that
it
would
con>nue
the
export
of
crucial

rare‐earth
minerals
that
Beijing
is
believed
to

have
halted
as
a
way
to
pressure
Japan.”



7

8

 What’s
the
big
deal?



$800



$700



$600


Million USD


$500



$400



$300



$200



$100



$‐




REE
export
(2010)


9

 What’s
the
big
deal?



$800




$700




$600


Million USD


$500




$400




$300




$200




$100




$‐




REE
export
(2010)
 Li>um
(2008)


10

 What’s
the
big
deal?



$140,000




$120,000




$100,000


Million USD


$80,000




$60,000




$40,000




$20,000




$‐




REE
export
(2010)
 Li>um
(2008)
 Copper
(2007)


11

 What’s
the
big
deal?



$700,000




$600,000




$500,000


Million USD


$400,000




$300,000




$200,000




$100,000




$‐




REE
export
(2010)
 Li>um
(2008)
 Copper
(2007)
 Aluminum
(2007)


12

 What’s
the
big
deal?



$2,000,000




$1,500,000


Million USD


$1,000,000




$500,000




$‐




REE
export
 Li>um
(2008)
 Copper
 Aluminum
 Crude
oil

(2010)
 (2007)
 (2007)
 (2006)


13

 In
sum...

•  High‐tech
metals,
especially
REE
are
hot
issue.

•  But
its
economic
importance
is
nowhere
near

those
of
the
bulk
resources
(yet).

•  The
unique
supply‐demand
dynamics
and

limited
subs>tutability,
however,
make
these

metals
par>cularly
interes>ng.


14

 Scope
of
the
discussion


Low‐Carbon
Energy

Materials

Technologies


• 
Photovoltaics
 • 
Rare
Earth
Elements

• 
Wind
turbines
 • 
Lithium

• 
Solid
State
Ligh>ng
 • 
Pla>num
/
Palladium

• 
Baeeries
 • 
Indium
/
Gallium

• 

Fuel
cells
 • 
Tantalum


15

 Issues
to
be
discussed

•  Demand‐side
characteris>cs

•  Supply‐side
characteris>cs

•  Unique
proper>es
in
supply‐demand
dynamics

•  What
should
we
expect
in
the
future?

•  Research
priori>es


16

Demand
side


17

Energy‐Materials
Nexus


DOE, 2010 (December) 18


DOE, 2010 (December) 19

Triple junction cell (Forbes and Hubbard, 2010) DOE, 2010

Dulcos, 2010

20

Efficiency
by
means
of
using

materials


Source: Arnold Magnetic Technologies (2010)

http://arpa-e.energy.gov/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=E8Qu6CDIEDw%3d&tabid=401

21

Efficiency
by
means
of
using

materials


22

 Efficiency
by
means
of
using

materials

•  Typical
laptop
baeery:
 
5g
lithium

•  Plug‐in
hybrid
car: 
 
15‐20kg
lithium



 
 
 
 
 
3,000‐4,000
laptops


 



Picture from: http://www.fastcompany.com/blog/ariel-schwartz/

sustainability/
23

 Technologies
in
ques6on

•  Photovoltaics

•  Wind
turbines

•  Solid
State
Ligh>ng

•  Baeeries

•  Fuel
cells

•  Display

•  Mobile
communica>on

•  Semi‐conductors

•  Catalysts
and
cataly>c
converters

•  Avia>on
and
turbines


24

 Demand
on
LCETs

•  Demands
on
Low‐Carbon
Energy
Technologies

(LCETs)

are
growing
fast

–  Installed
PV
capacity:
doubling
every
two
years.

–  Wind
power:
annual
growth
rate
in
2010
reached

31%
(doubling
in
2.5
years).

–  Lithium
baeery
demand
is
expected
to
grow
14

>mes
by
2020.

–  LED
market
is
expected
grow
at
9.4%
per
year

un>l
2020.


25

IEA
PV
Roadmap
(2010)


26

 In
sum...

•  Enormous,
policy‐backed
pull
from
the

market.


•  Demand
on
high‐tech
metals
will
con>nue
to

increase
accordingly.

•  But
one
should
never
forget:

–  Demand
from
other
technologies
than
LCETs

–  Demand
from
specula>on
and
hedging


27

 +4 Elements

+45 Elements

11 Elements

Source:
T.
McManus,
Intel
Corp.,
2006

 Speaker: Ferrite
Vibration Motor： Nd, W
Tip Ceramics Capacitor: Ag, Pd , Ti, Ba, Pb, Ni, Zr
Tip Resistance: Fe, Ag, Ni, Cu, Pb, Zn
Tip Coil： Cu
Crystalline Liquid： In, Sn, As, Sb
Camera Unit： Cu, Ni, Au
Epoxy-Glass Circuit Board : Cu, SiO2, （Br）, Au

Solder：Pb,Sn, Bi, Au
Quartz Oscillator： Si, Cu, Ni, Au
Tip Tantalum Capacitor： Ta, Ag, Mn
IC ： Au, Ag, Cu, Si, Ga, As
Plastics : Sb
Button Type Battery ：Ag, Zn, Li
Earphone jack , AC jack : Au, Cu
Contact Breaker Points : Fe, Ni, Cr, Ag, Cu
29

Nakajima (2010)
30

Supply
side


31

 What’s
going
on

•  Price
increases,
so
does
the
greed.

•  China

–  Chinalco
invested
on
Rio
Tinto
(14
billion,
2008)

–  Established
Socomin
in
Congo
(9
billion,
2008)

•  Russia

–  Mikhail
Khodorkovsky,
found
guilty





(Dec.
27,
2010)

–  Yukos
purchased
Rosnel
(2006)

http://www.eu-russiacentre.org
32

Price
vola6lity
(2002
–
2007)

120%

Average
annual
price
increase
rate


100%

In
V
80%
 Mo
Rh
Cd
60%

Cu Tl W
Zn Cr
40%

Rg
Ir
20%


0%

0.00
 0.20
 0.40
 0.60
 0.80
 1.00
 1.20

Price
volitality
index


33

 Supply‐side
characteris6cs

•  Limited
volume
of
supply

•  Dependence
on
host
metals

•  Highly
elas>c
response
to
demand


34

 Limited
supply


Ir
(Iridium)

=


35

 Chinese
export
limita>on
on
REEs


Element
 
 
2010
 
 
2011


Neodymium 
 
15% 
 
 
25%


Lanthanum 
 
0% 
 
 
25%


Cerium 
 
 
0% 
 
 
25%



•  In
2011,
REE
export
quota
is
likely
to
reduce
to

around
30,000
tonne
from
35,000
tonne
in

2010.

36

 Supply‐side
responses

•  Diversifica>on

•  Japan‐India
coali>on
for
REE
development

•  US
Mountain
Pass
area
expected
to
re‐open

(2011)

•  Recycling
tech


Press-enterprise.com
37

Key
characteris6cs


38

Recyclability


39

 30
Gas phase
Distribution model for Cu converter Au
xi(Me) in Cu = 0.01 (mol fraction)
20 pO2 = 10-6 atm
pCu = 8 x 10-6 atm
log(xi (Me) in Cu/xi (Ox) in Slag)

T = 1500 K
Pt Rh
10 Ag
Se Te Hg
Pd Sb Bi
Metal
phase Re Sn
Cu Cd
0
Ni Pb Zn
Ge In
W Fe Mn
Ga
- 10 Mg
Sr
Cr
- 20 B

Slag phase Al
- 30
- 25 - 20 - 15 - 10 -5 0 5 10
log(pi(Me)/pCu)
Nakajima, 2010
 Recycling
of
high‐tech
metals

•  Tradi>onal
method
using
smelter
promises

liele
hope.

•  Solvent
extrac>on,
and
biological
&
physical

absorp>on
technologies
being
developed.


41

 Price
elas6city
 Molded
epoxy
encapsulation
Marking
(‐)ve terminal

Anode
wire
Anode
body
(+)ve terminal

Ta 2O5 oxide
Sintered
Ta
powder

250
Tantalite (Ta2O5)

Source: USGS GE renews efforts to reduce 200

Ta usage in superalloys

Price [$/lb]
150

100

50

0
-Jan-2000

-Jan-2001

-Jan-2002

-Jan-2003

-Jan-2004

-Jan-2005

-Jan-2006

-Jan-2007

-Jan-2008

-Jan-2009
From:
Don
Lipkin
(GE
Global
Research):
personal
communica.on

Targeted
impact


Duclos, et al. (2010) Mechanical Engineering

43

Targeted
impact


Area represents annual value

Duclos, et al. (2010) Mechanical Engineering 44

Co‐produc6on
tree

Co‐elements


Verhoef et al, 2004 46


Envisaging
the
future


47

 Reserves

•  Rare
earth
elements
are
not
“rare”.

•  Reserves
for
other
metals
such
as
Lithium
are

generally
abundant
as
well.

•  R&D
investments
on
extrac>on
and
recycling

technologies
just
started.


48

Envisaging
the
future


49

50

 What
to
expect


•  Short‐to‐mid
term
shortage
in
supply

•  Mid‐term
price
shock

•  Possible
hedging
and
“false”
demand

•  Poten>al
bilateral
coali>on
between
countries

•  Carteliza>on,
na>onalism
over
resources


51

 Priority
research
areas

•  Material‐risk‐conscious
design

–  Reduced
use
of
materials

–  Design
for
disassembly
and
recycling

•  Recycling
technologies

•  Collabora>on
between
design
and
fabrica>on,

material
science,
industrial
ecology
and

metallurgy.


52

 Thank
you!

•  Ques>ons,
sugges>ons,
comments
welcomed.

•  Contact:
suh@bren.ucsb.edu


53