Security Analysis and Portfolio

Management

An Assignment on:
Analysis of Indian share market since
last two years.
(incl. the reasons for present slides)

Assignment submitted by:-

Jyoti verma
PGPM/07-09/23
ASBM, Bhubaneswar
Introduction:

There was a time when India was discussed as the land of snake charmers, black magic
and epidemics but the revolutionary Indian growth story changed everything. Indian
economy at its height compelled the world to change its viewpoint towards India. Out of
the several factors which changed the face of modern India, we are going to discuss the
most roaring of them i.e. our share market. The earlier reform procedures adopted by
India gave India the two most sought after world-class brands i.e. SENSEX and NIFTY.
The magical figures displayed by our market turned all the heads on India. And India
became one of the most favoured places for investment.
Now we are going to deal with the ups and downs in the share market since last two years
i.e. since year 2006.our share market has went through many phases in there 2 years. We
saw the investors getting overjoyed at 21K and we saw them crying too when it crashed.
We saw how the market rewarded the undervalued shares and how the overvalued shares
fell down to demonstrate the saying “everything which rise more than expected, has to
fall.”
So to analyze the saga of Indian share market, we had two indices to follow: BSE sensex
and NSE nifty. Though NSE nifty is a more advanced option and has left BSE sensex far
behind, still we call BSE sensex as the barometer of our economy. That’s why we have
followed the BSE sensex. It was not possible to track each and everyday figure of the
sensex since last two years. The performance of the sensex is analyzed with the help of
data and graphs collected from various sources and some of the most talked about
movements of sensex starting with the secondary market summary of each year, firstly
year 2006 and then year 2007.
Year 2006 at a glance:
In the secondary market, the uptrend continued in 2006-07 with BSE indices closing
above 14000(14,015) for the first time on January 3, 2007. After a somewhat dull
firsthalf conditions on the bourses turned buoyant during the later part of the year with
large inflows from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and larger participation of
domestic investors. During 2006, on a point-to-point basis, Sensex rose by 46.7%.
The pickup in the stock indices could be attributed to impressive growth in the
profitability of Indian corporate, overall higher growth in the economy, and other global
factors such as continuation of relatively soft interest rates and fall in the international
crude prices.
BSE Sensex (top 30stocks) which was 9,398 at end-December 2005 and 10,399 at end-
May 2006, after dropping to 8,929 on June 14, 2006, recovered soon thereafter to rise
steadily to 13787 by end-December 2006.
According to the number of transactions, NSE continued to occupy the third position among
the world’s biggest exchanges in 2006, as in the previous three years. BSE occupied the sixth
position in 2006, slipping one position from 2005. In terms of listed companies, the BSE
ranks first in the world.
In terms of volatility of weekly returns, uncertainties as depicted by Indian indices were
higher than those in outside India such as S&P 500 of United States of America and Kospi of
South Korea. The Indian indices recorded higher volatility on weekly returns during the two-
year period. January 2005 to December 2006 as compared to January 2004 to December 2005
The market valuation of Indian stocks at the end of December 2006, with the Sensex trading
at a P/E multiple of 22.76 and S&P CNX Nifty at 21.26, was higher than those in most
emerging markets of Asia, e.g. South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia and Taiwan; and
was the second highest among emerging markets. The better valuation could be on account of
the good fundamentals and expected future growth in earnings of Indian corporate
Liquidity, which serves as a fuel for the price discovery process, is one of the main criteria
sought by the investor while investing in the stock market. Market forces of demand
and supply determine the price of any security at any point of time. Impact cost quantifies
the impact of a small change in such forces on prices. Higher the liquidity, lower the impact
cost.
SENSEX during 2006: (Economic Survey 2007-08)
2006 BSE
Jan 9920
Feb. 10370
Mar 11280
Apr 12043
May 10399
Jun 10609
Jul 10744
Aug 11699
Sep 12454
Oct 12962
Nov 13696
Dec 13787
An overview of year 2006:
During December 2005, the greatest demerger of Indian history between the Ambanis
paved the way for 9000. And the sensex entered the year 2006 with a 9000 + figure. on
Feb. 10th 2006, we saw two roaring figures, both sensex and sachin tendulkar crossing
10000 mark. But the reason behind roaring sensex was not sachin’s records rather it was
rallied by strong FII inflows and robust data. The government forecasted a GDP growth
of 8.1% in current year, with manufacturing and the agriculture sectors estimated to grow
at 9.4% and 2.3% respectively. The 238-point rally was contrary to expectations as it
came despite negative news flow about a fresh tussle between Ambani brothers over
transfer of ownership of the four companies demerged from erstwhile RIL.
Sensex’s surge to 11000 points on 21st march 2006 was prompted by PM Manmohan
Singh’s announcements on Capital Account Convertibility. On Saturday, Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh hinted at moving toward a free float of the rupee and on
Tuesday, the BSE responded by crossing the 11,000 mark in a lifetime intraday high. The
new trading high was reached 29 days after Sensex entered the elite 10,000 club on
February 6. Only Nikkei, Hang Seng and Dow Jones could boast of being above 10,000
at that time. Since full convertibility was expected to attract more foreign money and also
allow local companies to tap foreign debt markets more easily, it was evident that the
move will encourage investors and boost the confidence of the markets.
RBI said it was constituting a panel to thrash out the contours for full convertibility.
Although the index later ended lower with investors wanting to book gains, participants
said it was evident the markets had sent out a message - that the growth story of Asia’s
third largest economy is intact and that liquidity flows into the bourses would continue to
remain firm.

After hitting a high of 11,017.25 points in mid-afternoon trade, Sensex lost 35.91 points
to close at 10,905.20, fluctuating 153 points, with most of the volatility coming in the last
hour of trading. The rise in share prices was partly attributed to a fall in oil price. The
US April crude oil prices plunged 3.7% or $2.35, to settle at $60.42 a barrel, on the
New York Mercantile Exchange due to ample US inventories.
After falling by 307 points on 12th April 2006 on account of Heavy selling by FIIs in
both cash and futures markets and a move by stock exchanges to raise margins on
share transactions by about 250 basis points, the 131-year-old BSE on Thursday, April
20, 2006 crossed yet another milestone when it breached the 12,000-point mark, backed
by strong corporate earnings, higher liquidity and robust economic growth. The
index was being driven by the strong flow of liquidity. Earlier, it was based on the
expectations that (corporate) results would be great...and by the first few companies were
more than matching those expectations
Although, Sensex was beaten to the 12,000 mark by various global indices, the time it
took to breach this milestone has been one of the fastest. Traders point to the fact that
foreign investors, buoyed by a booming economy, have chosen India as one of their
top investment destinations.
Now, everything was going fine….perhaps it was the lull before the storm. Suddenly the
Dalal Street experienced its worst single day crash on Thursday, 18th may 2006 as an
ambiguous Government circular on taxing investment gains prompted foreign funds
to book profits, knocking the bottom off the jittery stock market. Opening amidst weak
global markets and reports of rising US interest rates, the BSE-30 Sensex went on to
close 826.38. However the Dealers said the fall was accentuated by large-scale selling of
client positions by broking firms due to margin calls or the lack of margins. The May
crash saw the Sensex shedding its market capitalization by as much as 14% in just one
month.
Benchmark stock indices vaulted to new highs on Monday, oct 30th 2006 driven by a
heady cocktail of strong corporate earnings, a rapidly growing economy and
relatively stable crude oil prices. The Sensex ended at its highest closing level of
13024.26, a gain of 117.45 points or 0.9%.

Marauding bulls defied the weak trend globally, which was sparked off by weak US
GDP growth figure, pointing to a slowdown.

Back home, the mood was upbeat even as some expect that the RBI may raise interest
rates by 25 basis points in its mid-term credit policy on Tuesday. Market watchers
said sentiment could be affected only if the hike is more than 25 basis points, which is
unlikely. Higher interest rates drive up borrowing costs for corporate as well as the retail
consumer, who could then cut back on their investments and spending, in turn causing a
slack in domestic demand.
The benchmark 30-share sensex briefly crossed the psychological 14,000-mark on
Tuesday, December 5, 2006. While foreign institutional investors have been aggressive
buying stocks over the past few months, the response of domestic mutual funds has
been guarded. In the last two months alone, FIIs bought net stocks worth Rs 17,001
crore while local mutual funds have pumped in a net Rs 638.07 crore.
Year 2007 at a glance:
In the secondary market segment, the market activity expanded further during 2007-08
with BSE and NSE indices scaling new peaks of 21,000 and 6,300, respectively, in
January 2008. Although the indices showed some intermittent fluctuations, reflecting
change in the market sentiments, the indices maintained their north-bound trend during
the year. This could be attributed to the larger inflows from Foreign Institutional Investors
(FIIs) and wider participation of domestic investors, particularly the institutional
investors. During 2007, on a point-to-point basis, Sensex and Nifty Indices rose by 47.1
and 54.8 per cent, respectively. The buoyant conditions in the Indian bourses were aided
by, among other things, India posting a relatively higher GDP growth amongst the
emerging economies, continued uptrend in the profitability of Indian corporate,
persistence of difference in domestic and international levels of interest rates, impressive
returns on equities and a strong Indian rupee on the back of larger capital inflows.
The BSE Sensex (top 30 stocks) too echoed a similar trend to NSE nifty. The sell-off in
Indian bourses in August 2007 could partly be attributed to the concerns on the possible
fallout of the sub-prime crisis in the West. While the climb of BSE Sensex during 2007-
08 so far was the fastest ever, the journey of
BSE Sensex from 18,000 to 19,000 mark was achieved in just four trading sessions
during October 2007. It further crossed the 20,000 mark in December 2007 and 21,000 in
an intra-day trading in January 2008. However, BSE and NSE indices declined
subsequently reflecting concerns on global developments. BSE Sensex yielded a
Compounded return of 36.5 per cent per year between 2003 and 2007. In terms of simple
average, BSE Sensex has given an annual return of more than 40 per cent during the last
three years.
Sensex during 2007: (source: Economic Survey 2007-08)

2007 BSE

Jan 14091

Feb 12938

Mar 13072

Apr 13872

May 14544

Jun 14651

Jul 15551

Aug 15319

Sep 17251

Oct 19838

Nov 19363

Dec 20287
An overview of year 2007:

After touching 14K mark on December 5th 2006, sensex entered into 2007 with a
promising figure of 14000+, though the year started on a rather tentative note with a
marked slowdown being observed in the FII inflows into the country. The inflows
received from FIIs in January and February 2007 was 48 per cent less than what was
received during the same period in 2006. The return provided by the BSE Sensex for
2007 turned into negative territory following the 389-point tumble on Friday, February
23rd; the year-to-date return generated by the Sensex was negative 0.97 per cent.
FIIs have pressed substantial sales over those days in contrast to an intermittent
surge in inflow in February 2007. As a result, the sensex which closed at 14091 on
January 31st, closed at 12938 on February 28th.
As per provisional data FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 613 crore on Friday 2
March, the day when Sensex had lost 273 points. Their net outflow was worth Rs 3080.80
crore in four trading sessions from 26 February to 1 March 2007. Market continued to
reel under selling pressure on 5th march 2007 taking cue from weak global markets and
heavy FII sales as a result of fall over 400 points, all the indices were in red.
On April 24th, The Sensex again crossed the 14K mark and was trading at 14,150.18
having gained 221.85 points or 1.59%. The midcap and smallcap indices were rather
moving slow indicating that the actual movers are the large cap stocks but at the month
end it finally closed at 13872. Further we can see May and June having month end figures
at 14544 and 14651 respectively.
The benchmark BSE 30-Share Sensitive Index (Sensex) breached the 15,000-mark, to
reach a record high of 15007.22, for the first time intra-day on Friday, July 06 2007
before closing at 14964.12. Despite weak global cues, Indian stocks were in great
demand, especially auto, pharma, IT and metals stocks. On Friday, this lifted the
Bombay Stock Exchange's benchmark 30-share Sensex past the magical 15,000-mark.
The Sensex took 146 sessions to cover the 1,000 point distance from 14,000 till 15,000.
This is the highest since the index took 371 trading sessions to move up from 6,000 to
7,000.
The sensex experienced its second bigger ever fall on 2nd august 2007. The fall came in
after the Fed Reserve cut its discount interest rate at an emergency meeting and
JPMorgan Chase agreed to buy Bear Stearns for USD 2 a share. Sensex closed down
951.03 points or 6.03% at 14809.49,
When FIIs were pumping money in stock market and were Net Buyers of Equity worth
Crores; the Sensex was moving Up , Up and Up on weekly basis. Many thought that FIIs
were playing blind in Indian stock market. But when FIIs have turned Net Sellers of
Equity and have started booking profit backed by massive sell off of shares in global
markets; Sensex has to go down. As expected; the Sensex plunged by 600 Points in early
trading on 16th August and most of the shares were down by 4 to 5 per cent.
But very soon the sensex surpassed the gloomy days and Stock markets on Wednesday,
September 19th, 2007 gave thumbs up to the decision of the U.S. Fed Reserve to
reduce the rates by 50 basis points, as the benchmark 30-share BSE Sensex moved up
sharply by 653.63 points or 4.17 per cent at 16322.75. By staying well above the 16000-
mark, it outperformed most Asian peers and it was the biggest single day gain. This trend
shows that global cues had an influential effect on our market.
On the auspicious occasion of Ganesh chaturathi, India experienced a flow of good news.
The festive spirit did not end with the immersion of Ganapati. On Wednesday, it boiled
over to the streets of Mumbai and its financial district, the Sensex touched the magical
17,000 number. It took Dalal Street just 5 days to travel 1,000 points. Suddenly, tech
stocks, which were the whipping boys till Tuesday, became hot favourites. Why? Hopes
that the rupee will soften as a result of RBI's latest announcements to allow more
outflow sparked a rally in tech stocks, pushing the Sensex to a new high of 17,073.87
during the day. At the end of the day, RBI's measures may not be enough to rein in the
rupee. But there were no takers for this. The bellwether index finally settled at 16,921.39.
On October 9th, 2007, Sensex hits a record high of 18,280 on the back of eye-popping
rallies in Reliance & Reliance. At the height of the dotcom mania in 1999-00, the easiest
way to maximize returns was to buy into any stock with the suffix ‘Software’ or
‘Technologies’. Eight years on, the same seems to hold true for any stock with the prefix
‘Reliance’, given their baffling run-up over the past one month. Eye-popping rallies in
Reliance Industries, Reliance Energy and Reliance Communications lifted the 30-share
Sensex to a record high of 18,327.42 intra-days.
On October 15th 2007, amidst heavy buying by investors, the bull roared to breach the 19000
mark in just 4 sessions Sensex was up by 639.63 points or 3.47 per cent at 19058.67. This
rise came on the back of some strong sectors for which the macro picture is quite
bright — power, capital goods, infrastructure and telecom.
Foreign Institutional Investors were pumping in huge money in the equity market and this
too was pushing up the index. Since September, they nearly pumped in more than Rs.
30,000 crore in the cash market. After the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by
50 basis points, a re-rating of the emerging markets had been seen wherein liquidity
flows were quite robust.
Then suddenly happened the second biggest crash the sensex ever experienced when the
sensex crashed by 1743 points on 17th October 2007 within minutes of opening,
prompting suspension of trade for hour fallout of regulator Sebi's move to curb Foreign
Institutional Investors. In a knee-jerk reaction to the cap proposed by the market
regulator for the Participatory Notes, an overseas derivative instrument (ODI), used
by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), the stock market crashed by 1743 points in
intra-day, but recovered substantially later to close with a loss of 336.04 points or 1.76
per cent at 18715.82. but it was followed by a huge one-day gain as on October 23 when
the BSE barometer rose 878.85 points after market regulator SEBI allowed sub-accounts
of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIS) to trade

It took the index a little over 20 years to reach the first 10,000 mark, but just a little over
20 months to double that score and the sensex made history with touching the 20000
mark on October 29 2007. Significantly, it was the local institutions that were in the
driver’s seat. As per BSE data, foreign funds have net sold over Rs 1,100 crore worth of
shares over the last three trading sessions while local funds have net bought over Rs
2,300 crore worth of shares. Sceptics point to the fact that there were only a handful
of stocks that was driving the market higher.
On 13th November, BSE Sensex registered its biggest ever gain in a single of 893.58
points to settle at the third-highest level ever on buying by investors in bank counters
and blue chip companies such as Reliance Industries. The market gain was because
of global cues. Besides, the political development also gelled well with the sentiment.
The rally was driven by short covering, strong buying by domestic investors.
However, there was not much involvement of foreign investors.
But in December 2007, sensex again experienced a black Monday on 17th December. The
market succumbed to profit booking, that came in due to weak global cues as well as
profit booking by FIIs in the holiday season. The Sensex ended losing 769 points from
the previous close, at 19,261.
Sensex during year 2008:
After scaling new heights of 20000+, sensex entered year 2008 with rosy pictures. The
trade pundits, brokers and even investors predicted new heights for the year. And they felt
their predictions coming true when sensex touched the 21000 mark on 8 th January 2008.
It’s interesting if one sees in terms of flows; the journey from 20,000 to 21,000 is
dominated by domestic institutional investors; FIIs were negative sellers, they sold in
the cash market to the tune of USD 45 billion. So if one has to take out some pointers
from this journey from 20,000 to 21,000, it is the longest journey which we have seen in
the last 5,000 marks, the midcaps and smallcaps have been outperformers and in terms of
flows, it has been domestic institutional investors which have been really putting the
money.
But the rosy picture soon turned gloomy. The skyrocketing sensex suddenly started
heading south and Sensex saw the biggest absolute fall in history, shedding 2062 points
intra-day. It closed at 17,605.35, down 1408.35 points or 7.4 per cent. It fell to a low of
16,951.50. The fall was triggered as a result of weakness in global markets, but the
impact of the global rout was the biggest in India. The market tumbled on account of a
broad based sell-off that emerged in global equity markets. Fears over the solvency
of major Western banks rattled stocks in Asia and Europe.
After the worst January in the last 20 years for Indian equities, February turned out to be
a flat month with the BSE sensex down 0.4%. India finished the month as the second
worst emerging market. The underperformance can partly be attributed to the fact that
Indian markets outperformed global markets in the last two months of 2007and hence we
were seeing the lagged impact of that outperformance. In the shorter term, developments
in the US economy and US markets continued to dominate investor sentiments
globally and we saw volatility move up sharply across most markets.
The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex fell 4.44 percent on Monday, 31st march the
last day of the financial quarter, to end the quarter of March down 22.9 percent, its
biggest quarterly fall since the June 1992 quarter, as reports of rising inflation and
global economic slowdown dampened market sentiments. Financial stocks led the
Sensex slide along with IT. According to market analysts, IT stocks fell on worries
about the health of the US economy. Indian IT firms depend on the US clients for a
major share of their revenues.
Reasons for the present slowdown (Q1, FY 08-09)
The first month of the financial year 08-09 proved to be a good one for investors with the
month ending on a positive note. The BSE sensex showed a gain of 10.5% to close at
17287 points. A combination of firming global markets and technical factors like
short covering were the main reasons for the up move in the markets. Though
inflation touched a high of 7.57% against 6.68% in march 2008 as a result RBI hiked
CRR by 50 bps to take the figure to 8%, still emergence of retail investors was also seen;
a fact reinforced by the strong movement in the mid-cap and small- cap index that rose
16% and 18% respectively.
So April was the last month to close positive. Then after nobody saw a stable sensex
even. Sometimes it surged by 600+ points, but very next day it plunged by some 800 odd
points and this story is still continuing. Every prediction, every forecasting has failed. The
sensex is dancing on the music of lifetime high inflation rates, historic crude prices,
tightening RBI policies, weak industrial production data, political uncertainties and
obviously the sentiments of domestic as well as FIIs. The only relief came in the form
of weakening Indian rupees which enlightened the IT sector and most recently the UPA
gaining vote of confidence. Presently it is revolving around the figures of 14000 and no
one knows what next?
The 30-share BSE Sensex fell 117.89 points or 0.67% at 17,373.01 on Tuesday, 6 May
2008. The key benchmark indices ended lower as investors resorted to profit
booking due to lack of positive triggers in the market. On 30th May an imminent hike
in domestic retail fuel prices due to soaring crude oil prices weighed on the market last
week. Foreign institutional investors sold close to Rs 2204 crore in the first three trading
sessions of the week which accentuated the downfall. However better than expected Q4
gross domestic product figures provided some relief to the bourses on Friday. IT stocks
gained on slipping rupee. BSE Sensex rose in two out of five trading sessions. In May,
Indian inflation stood at 8.2%.
The market declined sharply as a hike in fuel prices by about 10% announced by the
Union government on Wednesday, 4 June 2008, triggered possibility of a surge in
inflation to double digit level. The BSE Sensex declined 843.39 points or 5.14% to
15,572.18 in the week ended 6 June 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty fell 242.3 points or
4.97% to 4627.80 in the week.
On 6 June 2008, local benchmark indices underperformed their global peers, hit by
rumours that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may hike cash reserve ratio (CRR) or
interest rate later in the day to tame runaway inflation. The 30-share BSE Sensex
declined 197.54 points or 1.25% to settle at 15,572.18.
On 9th June 2008, Bombay’s Sensex index closed 506.08 points down at 15,066.10,
having earlier fallen 4.4% and slipped below 15,000 for the first time since March. Oil
prices surged to record levels, fanning fears that they will keep climbing and hurt world
growth.
Central banks across the globe warned that interest rates may have to rise as they
look to keep inflation under control, despite the fact that economic growth is slowing in
key nations such as the US and UK.
On the week ending 27th June 2008 Sensex declined 769.07 points or 5.28% to 13,802.22.
The S&P CNX Nifty lost 210.90 points or 4.85% to 4136.65 in the week. Equities
extended losses for the fifth straight day on 24 June 2008 with the barometer index BSE
Sensex falling below the psychologically important 14,000 mark for the first time in 10
months since late August 2007. On 25 June 2008, equities staged a solid rebound after
touching fresh calendar 2008 lows in early trade. The initial jolt was caused by the
Reserve Bank of India's move to hike the key lending rate. A setback to stocks in
Asia and US, sharp spurt in crude oil prices and political uncertainty due to Indo-
US nuclear deal rattled bourses on 27 June 2008.
On July 15th 2008, Indian shares fell 4.9 per cent to their lowest close in 15 months,
joining a world equities rout as investors dumped financials on concerns about the
fallout from worsening global credit turmoil. Although Indian banks have no direct
exposure to the US subprime mortgage sector, the global financial sector turmoil
impacts sentiment in the local market and raises worries of more withdrawals by
foreign funds.
An 800+ point surge was experienced in the market on the day following UPA gaining
vote of confidence but the very next day market couldn’t maintain the momentum and
since then its in a doldrums’ position.
Presently, we can saw market plunging after the RBI announced further hikes in Repo
rate as well as CRR both increased to 9%. Also, the serial blasts at Ahmadabad and
Bangalore adding to the worries and enhancing the negative sentiments. And above
all we can't see any positive trigger that can dilute the flow of negative news.

Conclusion:

After going through all the analysis regarding the stock market in last 2 years, we can say
that stock market touched its peak at 21000 but then crashed badly. Now it is revolving
around a 14000-16000 figure. Though the sensex is a barometer and after seeing such
fluctuations one could be afraid of investing. Still we can say that people can play safe by
investing the blue-chips and undervalued shares.
During year 2006, if we keep aside that brief period of loss that the market witnessed
from may 10 2006 to June 14 2006, investors’ wealth seem to have grown double fold
with the Sensex touching the 10000, 11000, 12000, 13000 and 14000 levels in the same
calendar year. Investor wealth in terms of market capitalization has been growing in the
range of 6.84-12.41%
And talking about year 2007, we can summarize the happenings of year 2007 as a year
which redefined the resistance levels at sensex. Strong economic data, heavy inflow of
funds from FIIs towards the close of previous calendar year and decent to highly
encouraging surge in earnings of top notch companies all pointed to a rosy 2007. The
rupee's rise against the US dollar the regulator's decision to restrict investments made
through participatory notes, rising crude oil prices, the sub-prime mortgage woes in US,
concerns over a slowing down US economy and The Left parties' opposition to the Indo-
US nuclear pact, did halt the market's progress at times. But the inherent strength of the
Indian economy, fairly buoyant results quarter after quarter, the various chops and
subsidies announced by the government and sustained efforts made by the market
regulator to keep investor confidence in the system alive kept the momentum going.
Presently the hike and seek being played by crude prices, inflation and RBI is affecting
our market to a great extent. And adding to the worries are global slowdown, political
instability, serial bomb blasts, negative public sentiments etc. It is indeed surprising that
though the epicenter of the sub-prime crisis is the US, the tremors are being felt in India.
The loss of market cap in the US is only 14 per cent vis-À-vis 38 per cent in India.
But even after analyzing the causes for downturn, we can say that India story has not
ended; else $200 billion with institutional investors would have fled for safer waters.
Exports being 14 per cent of GDP, India is less vulnerable to external shocks than many
other Asian nations. Political uncertainties too have narrowed down. Savings in India
have risen at a historic rate of 35 per cent on the growing GDP base; 17 per cent of this is
in gold, commodities and real-estate while financial savings represent 18 per cent of
GDP. Even this is skewed towards deposits both banking and non-banking, while the
percentage of savings in shares and debentures is a mere 6.3 per cent. If this percentage
goes to 25 per cent, it would amount to $40 billion of incremental money being diverted
to capital markets. So even after such downturns, we can be hopeful for a positive market.

Jyoti Verma
PGPM/07-09/23