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3. EFFECTS OF INFLATION
POLICY
8. METHODOLOGY
9. REFERENCE
10. CONCLUSION
Inflation means a situation of substantial and rapid general increase in the level of
prices and consequent deterioration in the value of money over a period of time.
The behaviour of general prices is measured through price indices. The trend of
price indices reveals the course of inflation or deflation in the economy. As Lerner
activity.’’ Inflation is a situation of ‘’too much money chasing too few goods.’’
prices.’’ In simple words it can be said that in this situation in which the volume of
purchasing power is persistently more than the goods and services available to
consumer. Thu prices of goods rise and value of money falls because inflation is
arise in the general level of prices; it is intrinsically linked to money. In the other
words, inflation means things getting more expensive. It is when the price rise is
inflation and money inflation. Whenever the term inflation is referred, it implies
price inflation. The two have cause and effect relationship; often price inflation is
the effect of money inflation that is when money supply increases persistently, it
the economy. Inflation is a rise in consumer prices, increasing the cost of living.
Some inflation is caused because the country has printed too much money very
huge financial disaster, causing its currency to more than metal weight.
2-3% in the developed and 4-5% in the developing economies can be called
inflation. But every price rise is not inflation. When prices tend to rise due to
change in the composition of GDP, it is not inflationary. Price rise due to qualitative
change in products is not inflation. Short-rise in price due to sudden increase in
demand and decrease in supply is not inflation. Price rise after depression or
price index, which is called the inflation rate. The price index is an indicator of the
average price movement over time of a fixed basket of goods and services. The
Two different price indices are published in India: the Wholesale Price Index
(WPI), and the Consumer Price Index (CPI); and a third type of index viz., the
Implicit National Income Deflator (NID), can be constructed from the national
income data. Therefore, inflation rate in India can be measured in terms of these
three indices.
The existing WPI series in India, with base year 1993-94=100, comprises 435
commodities classified under the three major groups (I) primary articles (98), (ii)
fuel, power, light and lubricants (19) and (iii) manufactured products (318) with
weights of 22.02 per cent, 14.23 per cent and 63.75 per cent, respectively. The
total number of price quotations for these commodities was 1918. The WPI is the
weighted arithmetic mean of these group indices based on the Lapser’s formula2
which has a fixed base-year weighting diagram operative through the entire life
span of the series. Weights used in the WPI are value weights not quantity weights
as they find it difficult to assign quantity weights. The WPI is compiled and
released every week by the Office of the Economic Adviser in the Department of
Industrial Policy and Promotion, Ministry of Commerce and Industry. The WPI data
is available on weekly frequency with a lag of two weeks from the date of release
for provisional index and ten weeks lag for the final index. Currently, the OEA
releases weekly WPI inflation every Thursday. The WPI is only a commodity price
index and it does not capture price changes in non-commodity producing sectors
India is the only major country that uses WPI as a measure of headline inflation.
Most of the developed countries use the Consumer Price Index to calculate
inflation, as this actually measures the increase in the cost of living. The CPI is a
price index that tracks the prices of a specified basket of goods and services that a
typical consumer purchases. In India, there are four official series on CPI that are
specific to different groups of consumers, that is, CPI for Industrial Workers (CPI-
IW), CPI for Urban Non-Manual Employees (UNME), CPI for Agricultural
Labourers (AL), and CPI for Rural Labourers (RL). CPI-UNME is compiled by the
CSO and the other three CPIs are released by the Labour Beauteous in the
Ministry of Labour. CPI-IW is the most well known of these indices as it is used for
wage indexation in Government and in the organized sectors. The CPI is available
on monthly basis, but with a lag of one month. The relative merit of CPI in India is
that it also cover some basic services, whereas, WPI is only a commodity price
impact of price changes on households; however, its low coverage and quality are
questioned. Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW), the most
commonly quoted of the four CPI measures in India, covers only 260 commodities
3. EFFECTS OF INFLATION
Effect on employment
In this section, a review of inflationary trends in India for the last five years is
presented. The data required for the analysis in the section is collected from the
of India, Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Labour Beaureau, Ministry of Labour, and
Central Statistical Organization (CSO).The annual average inflation for the last five
years is 5.2%.The supply side factors have been more instrumental in moderating
India uses WPI to gauge the headline inflation in the country, this
need to verify empirically whether the WPI inflation is a good predictor of CPI
inflation.
2003-In this year the inflation trend is highly volatile .It increases from 3.5% in
January to 6.6% in april.It then declines to 3.8% in august, and again increase to
5.86% in December. This is the last time Bank Rate was changed. It was lowered
to 6% in March. Reverse Repo Rates was changed 2 times. It was lowered from
5.5% to 4.5% in August. Repo Rate was changed two times. It was lowered from
7.5% to 7.0% in March.CRR was changed once. It was lowered from 4.75% to /
4.5% in June. All commodities change percent was 6.5% in this year, primary
articles changed with 6.1 %, fuel group changed with 10.8% and manufacturing
2004- In this year the Inflation was again volatile as seen in2003. It declined from
6.5% to 4.3% in April. It again rose to touch 8.7% in August, and then declined to
6.5% in December. Bank rate did not change. Reverse rates were changed once
and were increase to 4.75% in October. Repo rate were also changed once and
are lowered to 6% in October, and CRR rates were changed twice. It was
changed with 4.6%, primary articles changed with 1.6%, fuel group was changed
2005- In this year the inflation rate was declined from 6% in January to 3.6% in
August. It again increased to 4.6% by December, in Bank rate did not changed,
reverse repo rates were changed twice. Both times it was increase to 5% in April
and 5.25% in October. Repo Rate changed once and increases to 6.25% in
October.CRR was not changed. All commodities were changed with 5.1%, primary
articles were changed with 1.3%, fuel group was changed with 10.5%, and Mfg.
2006-In this year the inflation rate was declined to touch 3.7% levels in April and
then rises persistently to touch near 6% by December, Bank rate was not affected,
Reverse Repo Rate were changed thrice. Increased by 25% in January, June and
July and was noted at 6%. The repo rates are changed 4 times. Increased by 25%
in January, June, July and October. It was noted at 7.25%.CRR increased once to
5.25% in December. All commodities were changed with 4.1%, primary articles
were changed with 5.4%, fuel group was changed 8.9%, and Mfg.products
to touch around 3.8% by December. Bank rate was same; Reverse Repo Rate
was also not changed. Repo rate was changed two times. Increased to 7.5% and
from 5.25% in January to 7.50% in November. All commodities were changed with
6.5%, primary articles were changed with 11.7%, fuel group was changed by
scanner to assess if more steps are required to tighten the monetary system.
circumstances have to look at inflation, liquidity and credit growth. Central bank
be recalled, had announced a 0.5 percentage point increase in the cash reserve
RBI did take international developments into consideration, there were no direct
links between domestic interest rates and moves by the US Federal Reserve
which, in recent days, decided against tinkering with interest rates in view of the
Tightening policy Cash reserve ratio hiked 50 basis points, from 5.5 per cent to
5.75 per cent. The RBI marked up the Cash Reserve Ratio by 50 basis points to 6
per cent and impound for free about Rs 14,000 crore of bank funds.
starts in March. The RBI had lifted CRR by 50 basis points to 5.5 per cent,
absorbing around Rs 13,500 crore of bank deposits. , the RBI had increased the
repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.5 per cent. The government and corporate debt
markets to make borrowings, across sectors, dear. Over the past few days,
financial markets had been expecting a rise in CRR, as it does not cost RBI
anything with the held up bank funds not earning interest incomes for banks
The Reserve Bank of India raised the Cash Reserve Ratio by 50 basis points in
order to curb the high levels of credit expansion that despite earlier money-
tightening measures has continued at 30 per cent. By raising the CRR, that will
impound close to Rs 14,000 crore of bank funds thus making that much
unavailable for lending and with the earlier repo rate hikes, the RBI hopes to
dampen the capacity to lend and, as a result, inflation that the apex bank feels is a
per cent, has its sources in supply constraints, the RBI expects its monetary
measures will have a dampening effect by curbing demand for credit, especially for
retail trade and real-estate. Monetary Policy works best when its target is clearly
identified. If credit growth of 30 per cent is considered too high, the RBI may affect
a co. When the RBI wishes to curb inflation it deals with a target because the
extent to which asset prices contribute to the general price rise is unclear. Neither
the RBI nor North Block has any aggregate data on real-estate prices in the
not in its favour. Demand-aided inflation could have been tackled through interest
rate changes, as it is done by central banks in developed nations. India had the
Food articles have contributed significantly to inflation during 2006-07. At the same
time, prices of manufactured products account for well above 50 per cent of
The steps generally taken by the RBI to tackle inflation include a rise in repo rate a
rise in Cash Reserve Ratio and a reduction in rate of interest on cash deposited by
banks with RBI. The signals are intended to spur banks to raise lending rates and
to reduce the amount of credit disbursed. The RBI's measures are expected to
suck out a substantial sum from the banks. In effect, while the economy is
booming and the credit needs grow, the central bank is tightening the availability of
credit.
The RBI also buys dollars from banks and exporters, partly to
prevent the dollars from flooding the market and depressing the dollar indirectly
raising the rupee. In other words, the central bank's interactions have a desirable
objective to keep the rupee devalued which will make India's exports more
competitive, but they increase liquidity. The net effect is that the RBI has to resort
to indirect methods of sterilisation, such as raising interest rates and raising CRR
to contract liquidity. This makes India more attractive for foreign capital flows that
seek better returns and a vicious cycle follows. RBI has to buy more foreign
INFLATION
Their huge numbers are attested to by the RBI figures, which reveal that the 85
commercial banks, with a predominant presence in urban India, account for 78 per
cent of the country's financial assets. The 3,000 cooperative banks and Regional
Rural Banks, with greater presence in semi-urban and rural pockets, contribute a
Secondly, in spite of its being an indirect weapon of credit control, CRR does
impact the level of money supply in the economy and plays some role in the fight
against inflation. But the impact of the CRR hike will not distinguish as between
productive credit and credit meant for consumption. This will hurt growth and the
Farmers today keep several acres of land uncultivated as the financial returns are
not commensurate with the expenses incurred for cultivation. Irrespective of the
increasing cost of funds, large segments of the borrowing public, especially the
small, medium and large farmers, have no option but to approach the commercial
As a result, lendable resources of the system will be reduced to that extent and
bank credit will be dearer. This hike will result in increase of the lending rates,
whether for production or consumption. The RBI can address only the demand
side through such an approach. The need of the hour is to curb only consumption
credit and not production. On the other hand there is urgent need to increase
supplies of food products and manufactured goods, for which credit flow to the
The combined effect of the CRR hike and the REPO rate hike will tell upon
expansion of productive credit as well and this is not desirable at this stage.
The monetary measures are meant to increase the cost of funds for banks, make
loans dearer and temper the demand for credit. While there is a greater possibility
this will choke the demand for funds in some specific inflation-impacting sectors.
disaster. This has had a disastrous impact on the growth rate of industry and the
increasing in manufacturing sector which remains India’s first long term bet for
providing employment.
some relatively minor and politically uncontroversial reforms. Nothing has helped.
has suggested that the time may have come to respond to the criticism. The real
possibility that the current low rate of inflation will continue for some time, and
given that Indians find 5 per cent inflation rate endurable a higher inflation and
A large part of the blame for this state of affairs has attached to the high
interest rates. The RBI has been singled out for some very strong criticism that in
its attraction with inflation and the health of the public sector banks, it has
All the support he can get to cut interest rates. The RBI
makes its case in the report on currency and finance, released last week. The
case rests on three main arguments. One, that the long run real interest rates
should be close to the expected long run growth rate. Two, that the impact of
increasing the availability of credit with banks is very small, and it is mainly the
interest rate channel that is the main mechanism of monetary transmission. Third,
the RBI has criticism regarding the effect of monetary expansion through lower
interest rates on inflation by arguing that inflation is below the threshold level. The
RBI has also argued that in a low inflation environment, a further reduction in the
inflation rate in India. RBI increases the CRR and Repo Rate. It has also buy
dollars to low the inflation but it is not good for India because in India there have
much borrow and India will fall in borrow than India’s inflation increase more than
this time.
METHODOLOGY
research must thoroughly search secondary data source before finding any effort
www.investopedia.com
www.inflationdata.com
www.investorwords.com
8. CONCLUSION
Inflation means increase in the level of price. The Indian inflation is measured by
analysing the trend of inflation last five year we found that the average inflation for
the last five year was 5.2%.In 2003 the inflation rate was increase from 3.5% in
January and 6.5% in April, then declines 3.8% in august and again increased to
5.8% in December. Bank rate was changed. Repo rate was changed two times,
reverse repo rate also changed. All commodities changed 6.5% in this year. In
2004 the interest rate was decline from 6.5% to 4.3%. Reverse repo rates were
increased. In 2005 inflation rate was declined and after the ends of the year
increase. In 2006 interest rate also increase, bank rate was not changed. Reverse
repo rate was changed thrice. In 2007 interest rate touched 6.5% in march and
around 3.8% by December, bank rate was same, reverse repo rate was also not
After that RBI taken many steps on inflation. Central bank planned pause of
tightening the monetary system by which the inflation rate will be reduce.RBI
increase in CRR. Financial market had been expecting arise in CRR. For the
tackle of inflation RBI change the interest rate. RBI was rise the repo rate and
CRR and reduction in rate of interest. RBI also buys dollar from foreign banks.
Aftterthat we find that inflation rate was ups and down in last five year and RBI
taken steps on this and try to controlled the inflation but the all steps were not