MGMT 3620

Luxi Gan, PoHsun Chiang

DistCo Forecasting Inventory

Forecasting Multiplicative decomposition

This spreadsheet was created by either DS, POM or QM for Windows
4 seasons

Data Error analysis

Period Demand (y) Time (x) Average Ratio Seasonal Smoothed UnadjustedAdjusted Error |Error| Error^2
Past period 1 176 1 208.85 0.84 0.99 178.09 163.62 161.7 14.3 14.3 204.55
Past period 2 134 2 208.85 0.64 0.84 159.01 168.38 141.89 -7.89 7.89 62.32
Past period 3 186 3 208.85 0.89 1.05 176.89 173.14 182.05 3.95 3.95 15.59
Past period 4 195 4 208.85 0.93 1.12 174.49 177.9 198.81 -3.81 3.81 14.54
Past period 5 189 5 208.85 0.9 0.99 191.24 182.66 180.52 8.48 8.48 71.91
Past period 6 157 6 208.85 0.75 0.84 186.3 187.42 157.94 -0.94 0.94 0.89
Past period 7 195 7 208.85 0.93 1.05 185.45 192.19 202.08 -7.08 7.08 50.09
Past period 8 211 8 208.85 1.01 1.12 188.81 196.95 220.1 -9.1 9.1 82.76
Past period 9 205 9 208.85 0.98 0.99 207.43 201.71 199.34 5.66 5.66 32.02
Past period 10 180 10 208.85 0.86 0.84 213.6 206.47 173.99 6.01 6.01 36.07
Past period 11 212 11 208.85 1.02 1.05 201.62 211.23 222.1 -10.1 10.1 102.07
Past period 12 229 12 208.85 1.1 1.12 204.91 215.99 241.38 -12.38 12.38 153.3
Past period 13 223 13 208.85 1.07 0.99 225.65 220.75 218.16 4.84 4.84 23.39
Past period 14 192 14 208.85 0.92 0.84 227.84 225.51 190.04 1.96 1.96 3.83
Past period 15 234 15 208.85 1.12 1.05 222.55 230.28 242.13 -8.13 8.13 66.08
Past period 16 248 16 208.85 1.19 1.12 221.91 235.04 262.67 -14.67 14.67 215.08
Past period 17 239 17 208.85 1.14 0.99 241.84 239.8 236.99 2.01 2.01 4.06
Past period 18 217 18 208.85 1.04 0.84 257.5 244.56 206.09 10.91 10.91 118.96
Past period 19 271 19 208.85 1.3 1.05 257.73 249.32 262.15 8.85 8.85 78.24
Past period 20 284 20 208.85 1.36 1.12 254.13 254.08 283.95 0.05 0.05 0
Total -7.1 141.11 1335.76
Average Intercept 158.86 -0.36 7.06 66.79
Slope 4.76 Bias MAD MSE
SE 9.77

3700887.xls Page 1
MGMT 3620
Luxi Gan, PoHsun Chiang

Ratios
Season 1 Season 2 Season 3 Season 4
0.84 0.64 0.89 0.93
0.9 0.75 0.93 1.01
0.98 0.86 1.02 1.1
1.07 0.92 1.12 1.19
1.14 1.04 1.3 1.36
Average 0.99 0.84 1.05 1.12

Forecasts
Period Unadjusted Seasonal Adjusted
21 258.84 0.99 255.81
22 263.61 0.84 222.14
23 268.37 1.05 282.18
24 273.13 1.12 305.23

3700887.xls Page 2