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INFORMACION HISTORICA

AO
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

ENERGIA CONSUMIDA
13162
13901
13044
14579
15843
16880
17280
17954
18583
19050
19923

MAXIMA DEMANDA
1885
2003
1972
2179
2312
2310
2347
2401
2521
2552
2654

PBI
81983
83760
83401
87375
98577
107035
109709
117110
116485
117590
121267

POBLACION
21659
21968
22354
22740
23130
23532
23947
24371
24801
25232
25662

TARIFA
4.9
4.71
6.43
5.59
7.61
8.32
8.56
8.46
6.98
6.59
6.78

f(E) = 0,2902x2 - 437,89x - 265070


R = 0,9628

ENERGIA CONSUMIDA
25000

20000

f(x) = 0.2902097887x^2 - 437.8916024352x - 265069.642305115


R = 0.9628093484
16880

17280

17954

18583

19050

19923

15843

15000
13162

13901

14579
13044

10000

5000

0
1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

MAXIMA DEMANDA

3000

2500

f(x) = - 1.8519813521x^2 + 7463.6510493802x - 7516748.15194351


R = 0.9663401897
2312

2310

2347

2521

2552

2654

2401

2179
2003

2000
1885

1972

1500

1000

500

0
1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

CENTRALES ELCTRICAS I
PRONSTICO DEL MERCADO ELCTRICO

ALUMNO: CASTILLO ROJAS VICTOR ARMANDO


CDIGO: 055622 -D

PRONSTICO DEL MERCADO ELCTRICO


AO
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

ENERGIA CONSUMIDA
13162
13901
13044
14579
15843
16880
17280
17954
18583
19050
19923
20785
21982
22923
24267

MAXIMA DEMANDA
1885
2003
1972
2179
2312
2310
2347
2401
2521
2552
2654
2792
2908
2965
3131

PBI
POBLACION
81983
21659
83760
21968
83401
22354
87375
22740
98577
23130
107035
23532
109709
23947
117110
24371
116485
24801
117590
25232
121267
25662
182527
26366
192691
26739
204377
27103
227935
27460
fc = E/(MD*8760)
E = f(x) + E
MD = E/(fc*8760)

TARIFA
4.9
4.71
6.43
5.59
7.61
8.32
8.56
8.46
6.98
6.59
6.78
6.9
6.6
6.6
7

fc
0.79708828
0.7922477
0.75509183
0.76377669
0.78224985
0.83417344
0.84047837
0.85362073
0.84147046
0.85213853
0.85693861
0.84982697
0.86291634
0.88255677
0.884767

PRONOSTICO SEGN y = 0,2902x2 - 437,89x - 265070


AO
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

ENERGIA CONSUMIDA
13162
13901
13044
14579
15843
16880
17280
17954
18583
19050
19923

MAXIMA DEMANDA
1885
2003
1972
2179
2312
2310
2347
2401
2521
2552
2654

PBI
POBLACION
81983
21659
83760
21968
83401
22354
87375
22740
98577
23130
107035
23532
109709
23947
117110
24371
116485
24801
117590
25232
121267
25662

TARIFA
4.9
4.71
6.43
5.59
7.61
8.32
8.56
8.46
6.98
6.59
6.78

f(E)
12749.92
13467.3162
14185.2928
14903.8498
15622.9872
16342.705
17063.0032
17783.8818
18505.3408
19227.3802
19950
20673.2002
21396.9808
22121.3418
22846.2832

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