NBA draft lottery

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The NBA draft lottery is an annual event held since 1985 by the National Basketball Association (NBA), in
which the teams who had missed the playoffs (top 14 picks) in the previous season, or teams who hold the draft
rights of another team that missed the playoffs in the previous season, participate in a lottery process to
determine the draft order in the NBA draft. In the NBA draft, the teams obtain the rights to amateur U.S. college
basketball players and other eligible players, including international players. The lottery winner would get the
first selection in the draft. The term "lottery pick" denotes a draft pick whose position is determined through the
lottery, while the non-playoff teams involved in the process are often called "lottery teams".
Under the current rules, only the top three picks are decided by the lottery, and are chosen from the 14 teams
that do not make the playoffs (with the number of lottery chances per each of the 14 teams being weighted
according to record). The lottery is weighted so that the team with the worst record, or the team that holds the
draft rights of the team with the worst record, has the best chance to obtain a higher draft pick. After the top
three positions are selected (from the lottery slotting system), the remainder of the first-round draft order is in
inverse order of the win-loss record for the remaining teams, or the teams who originally held the lottery rights
if they were traded. The lottery does not determine the draft order in the subsequent rounds of the draft.

Contents
1 History
1.1 Before 1985: Territorial picks and coin flip
1.2 19851989: Early lottery system
1.3 1990present: Weighted lottery system
2 Process
3 Lottery ceremony
4 Lottery winners
5 See also
6 References
7 External links

History
Before 1985: Territorial picks and coin flip
In the earlier drafts, the teams would draft in reverse order of their win-loss record. However, a special
territorial-pick rule allowed a team to draft a player from its local area. If a team decided to use its territorial
pick, it forfeited its first-round pick in the draft. The territorial pick rules remained until the NBA revamped the
draft system in 1966.[1]

In 1966 the NBA introduced a coin flip between the worst teams in each division to determine who would
obtain the first overall draft pick. The team who lost the coin flip would get the second pick, while the rest of the
first-round picks were determined in reverse order of the win-loss record. In this system, the second-worst team
would never have a chance to obtain the first pick if it was in the same division with the worst team. The coin
flip meant that both teams had an equal chance to draft first. The coin-flip system remained in operation until
1984.[1]

19851989: Early lottery system

After the 1984 coin flip, which was won by the Houston Rockets, the NBA introduced the lottery system to
counter the accusations that the Rockets and several other teams were deliberately losing their regular season
games in order to secure the worst record and subsequently the chance to obtain the first pick.[2][3] The lottery
system involved a random drawing of an envelope from a hopper. Inside each of the envelopes were the nonplayoff team names. The team whose envelope was drawn first would get the first pick. The process was then
repeated until the rest of the lottery picks were determined. In this system, each non-playoff team had an equal
chance to obtain the first pick. The rest of the first-round picks were determined in reverse order of the win-loss
record.[4]
Starting from 1987, the NBA modified the lottery system so that only the first three picks were determined by
the lottery. After the three envelopes were drawn, the remaining non-playoff teams would select in reverse order
of their win-loss record. This meant that the team with the worst record could receive no worse than the fourth
selection, the second-worst team could pick no lower than fifth, and so on.[5]
The New York Knicks were the first winner of the lottery in 1985. They selected Georgetown University
standout Patrick Ewing with their first overall pick. However, speculation arose that the NBA had rigged the
lottery so that the Knicks would be assured to get the first pick.[2][3][4] Even though the envelope system was
highly criticized, it was used until 1989 before being replaced by the weighted lottery system in 1990.[6]

1990present: Weighted lottery system

In 1990, the NBA changed the format of the lottery to give the team with the worst record the best chance of
landing the first pick. For the 11 non-playoff teams that season, the team with the worst record would have 11
chances (out of 66) to obtain the first pick, the second worst would have 10 chances, and so on. Similarly to the
previous system, this weighted lottery system was also used only to determine the first three picks, while the
rest of the teams selected in reverse order of their win-loss records.
Despite the weighted odds, the Orlando Magic managed to win the lottery in 1993 with only one chance to
obtain the first pick as it was the best non-playoff team in the previous season. In October 1993, the NBA
modified the lottery system to give the team with the worst record a higher chance to win the draft lottery and to
decrease the better teams' chances to win. The new system increased the chances of the worst team obtaining
the first pick in the draft from 16.7 percent to 25 percent, while decreasing the chances of the best non-playoff
team from 1.5 percent to 0.5 percent.
In the new system, 14 numbered table tennis balls were used. Then, a four-digit combination from the 14 balls
were drawn to determine the lottery winner. Prior to the draft, the NBA assigned 1000 possible combinations to
the non-playoff teams. The process was then repeated to determine the second and third pick.[1] The table below

shows the lottery chances and the probabilities for each team to win the first pick in the weighted lottery system
in 1993 and 1994 draft.[7]
1993 draft lottery
Team

1992
1993
record

1994 draft lottery

Chances
(out of
66)

Probability

Team

1993
1994
record

Chances
(out of
1000)

Probability

Dallas

1171

11

16.67%

Dallas

1369

250

25.00%

Minnesota

1963

10

15.15%

Detroit

2062

164

16.40%

Washington

2260

13.64%

Minnesota

2062

164

16.40%

Sacramento

2557

12.12%

Milwaukee

2062

163

16.30%

Philadelphia

2656

10.61%

Washington

2458

94

9.40%

Milwaukee

2854

9.09%

Philadelphia

2557

66

6.60%

Golden
State

3448

7.58%

L.A.
Clippers

2755

44

4.40%

Denver

3646

6.06%

Sacramento

2854

27

2.70%

Miami

3646

4.55%

Boston

3250

15

1.50%

10 Detroit

4042

3.03%

L.A. Lakers

3349

0.80%

11 Orlando

4141

1.52%

Charlotte

4141

0.50%

In 1995, the NBA had an agreement with the two expansion franchises, the Toronto Raptors and the Vancouver
Grizzlies. The agreement stated that neither team would be eligible to obtain the first overall pick in the 1996,
1997 and 1998 Drafts, even if it won the lottery. The Raptors won the 1996 lottery but were forced to settle for
the second pick. Another combination was drawn and resulted in the Philadelphia 76ers getting the first pick.[8]
Two years later, the Grizzlies won the lottery and likewise had to pick second in the draft, while the L.A.
Clippers obtained the first pick.[9]

Process
The lottery is normally held during either the third or fourth week of May.
To determine the winner, fourteen ping pong balls numbered 114 are placed in a standard lottery machine and
four balls are randomly selected from the lot. Just as in most traditional lotteries, the order in which the numbers
are drawn is not important. That is, 1-2-3-4 is considered to be the same as 4-3-2-1. There are a total of 1,001
combinations (or 14! / (10! x 4!)). Of these, 1 outcome is disregarded and 1,000 outcomes are distributed among
the 14 non-playoff NBA teams. The combination 11-12-13-14 (in any order that those numbers are drawn) is
not assigned and it is ignored if drawn; this has never occurred in practice.
In the event a lottery pick is traded to another team, the record of the original team (whose pick it was before
the trade) still determines eligibility for the lottery, and assignment of chances.

As of 2013, with 30 NBA teams, 16 qualify for the playoffs and the remaining 14 teams are entered in the draft
lottery. These 14 teams are ranked in reverse order of their regular season record and are assigned the following
number of chances
1. 250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick
2. 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4. 119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5. 88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6. 63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7. 43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8. 28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9. 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10. 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11. 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12. 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13. 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance
Here are the odds for each seed to get specific picks if there were no ties (rounded to 3 decimal places):
Seed Chances

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

250 .250 .215 .178 .357

199 .199 .188 .171 .319 .123

156 .156 .157 .156 .226 .265 .040

119 .119 .126 .133 .099 .351 .160 .012

8th

9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th

88 .088 .097 .107

.261 .360 .084 .004

63 .063 .071 .081

43 .043 .049 .058

28 .028 .033 .039

17 .017 .020 .024

10

11 .011 .013 .016

11

8 .008 .009 .012

.907 .063 .001 .000

12

7 .007 .008 .010

.935 .039 .000

13

6 .006 .007 .009

.960 .018

14

5 .005 .006 .007

.982

.439 .305 .040 .001

.599 .232 .018 .000
.724 .168 .008 .000
.813 .122 .004 .000
.870 .089 .002 .000

In the event that teams finish with the same record, each tied team receives the average of the total number of
combinations for the positions that they occupy. In 2007, the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Portland Trail
Blazers tied for the sixth worst record. The average of the 6th and 7th positions in the lottery was taken,
resulting in each team getting 53 combinations (the average of 63 and 43). Should the average number not be an
integer, a coin flip is then used to determine which team or teams receive the extra combination(s). The result of
the coin flip is also used to determine who receives the earlier pick in the event that neither of the tied teams
wins one of the first three picks via the lottery.
The lottery is conducted with witnesses verifying that all 14 balls are represented once as they are placed in the
lottery machine. The balls are placed in the machine for 20 seconds to randomize prior to having the first ball
drawn. The remaining three balls are drawn at 10-second intervals. NBA officials determine which team holds
the winning combination and that franchise is awarded the #1 overall draft pick. The four balls are returned to
the machine and the process is repeated to determine the second and third picks. In the event that a combination
belongs to a team that has already won its pick (or if the one unassigned combination comes up), the round is
repeated until a unique winner is determined. When the first three teams have been determined, the remaining
picks are given out based on regular season record with the worst teams getting the highest picks. This assures
each team that it can drop no more than three spots from its projected draft position.
A simple explanation: 1000 different outcomes of an experiment exist and are equally likely to occur. A certain
number of outcomes is assigned to each non-playoff NBA team. The largest number of outcomes is assigned to
the team with the worst record. The team with the second worst record gets the second largest number of
outcomes, and so on for each of the 14 teams in the lottery. The experiment is conducted, and the team to which
the winning outcome was assigned receives the 1st pick in the NBA draft. The experiment is conducted again. If
the winner is the same team that already won, the experiment is performed over again until there is a different
winner. The winner of the second experiment receives the 2nd pick. The winner of the third experiment receives
the 3rd pick. After the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd picks are determined, the 4th-14th picks are assigned to teams based on
weakness of record.
In a case where a lottery team trades its pick to a playoff team, the playoff team assumes the lottery team's
position in all draft lottery situations, unless provisioned by the conditions of the trade.
On Wednesday October 22, 2014 the NBA Board of Governors will vote on a proposed reform to the lottery.[10]
If the proposed changes pass, the four worst teams in the league would be given identical odds (around 11
percent) at winning the top pick in the draft. The fifth team would have a 10 percent chance and the odds would
decrease for each team picking after.[11] The proposed changes would take away the advantage of having the
worst record in the league (Currently the worst team is given a 25% chance at the pick) , and would work to
keep teams competitive throughout the entire season.

Lottery ceremony
The drawing of the ping-pong balls is conducted in private, though observed by independent auditors and
representatives from each team. The results are subsequently presented in a short ceremony (typically broadcast
prior to or during halftime of an NBA playoff game), in which the order of the lottery is announced in reverse
order, from the fourteenth selection to the first. Representatives from each NBA franchise with a lottery pick are
present at the lottery ceremony.

The decision of not showing the ping-pong balls live has fueled speculation that the NBA will occasionally fix
the draft lottery if it can benefit the league. The speculation originated with the 1985 draft lottery that sent
Patrick Ewing to New York, with the theory being that the NBA wanted to send the best player in the draft to
New York to increase ratings in a large television market. At that time the NBA used 7 envelopes in a tumbler
representing the seven teams with the worst record. It has been speculated by some[12][13][14] that the envelope
containing the Knicks logo was refrigerated beforehand, enabling David Stern to recognize and select it.
Another conspiracy theory suggests that one of the seven envelopes was thrown into the tumbler, causing one of
the corners to fold. After the envelopes were mixed, Stern took a deep breath before reaching into the tumbler
and picking the envelope with the folded corner. [15] No one has ever explained why all the other teams would
go along with the fix. Afterward the Draft Lottery Format was changed to the current ping-pong ball lottery in a
private room with team representatives. However, despite the lack of any evidence, conspiracy theories still
persist regarding the annual outcome of the lottery.[16][17][18][19]

Lottery winners
The largest upset in the lottery occurred in 1993 when the
Magic won the lottery with just a 1.5% chance to win. The
second largest upsets occurred in 2008 and in 2014 when
the Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers both won their
respective lotteries with just a 1.7% chance.[20] In 1999, the
Charlotte Hornets also overcame long odds in the draft
lottery when they won the third pick despite having the best
record among all non-playoff teams and only a 1.83%
chance of winning a top-three pick.[21] Since the lottery was
introduced in 1985, only 16 of 30 NBA teams have won the
lottery. The Los Angeles Clippers have won five lotteries,
although two of them were conveyed to other teams in
trades prior to the lottery. The Orlando Magic and
Cleveland Cavaliers are second with three lottery wins each.
Since the weighted lottery system introduced in 1990, only
three teams with the worst record went on to win the lottery
while only four teams with the second-worst record have
won the lottery.

Visual representation of the following table.

Year
1985

Team
New York Knicks

Previous
season
record
2458 (3rdworst)

Lottery
chances

Probability
14.29%[a]

Player
selected
Patrick
Ewing

Los Angeles Clippers

3250 (7thworst)

14.29%[a]

Brad
Daugherty

San Antonio Spurs

2854 (4thworst)

14.29%[a]

David
Robinson

1988

Los Angeles Clippers

1765 (Worst)

14.29%[a]

Danny
Manning

1989

Sacramento Kings

2755 (6thworst)

11.11%[c]

Pervis
Ellison

1990

New Jersey Nets

1765 (Worst)

11 (out of
66)

16.67%

Derrick
Coleman

1991

Charlotte Hornets

2656 (5thworst)

7 (out of 66)

10.61%

Larry
Johnson

1992

Orlando Magic

2161 (2ndworst)

10 (out of
66)

15.15%

Shaquille
O'Neal

1993

Orlando Magic

4141 (11thworst)

1 (out of 66)

1.52%

Chris
Webber

1994

Milwaukee Bucks

2062 (2ndworst)

163 (out of
1000)

16.30%

Glenn
Robinson

1995

Golden State Warriors

2656 (5thworst)

94 (out of
1000)

9.40%

Joe Smith

1996

Philadelphia 76ers

1864 (2ndworst)

200 (out of
593)[d]

33.73%

Allen
Iverson

1997

San Antonio Spurs

2062 (3rdworst)

157 (out of
727)[d]

21.60%

Tim Duncan

1998

Los Angeles Clippers

1765 (3rdworst)

157 (out of
696)[d]

22.56%

Michael
Olowokandi

1999

Chicago Bulls

1337[e] (3rdworst)

157 (out of
1000)

15.70%

Elton Brand

2000

New Jersey Nets

3151 (7thworst)

44 (out of
1000)

4.40%

Kenyon
Martin

2001

Washington Wizards

1963 (3rdworst)

157 (out of
1000)

15.70%

Kwame
Brown

2002

Houston Rockets

2854 (5thworst)

89 (out of
1000)

8.90%

Yao Ming

2003

Cleveland Cavaliers

1765 (TWorst)

225 (out of
1000)

22.50%

LeBron
James

2004

Orlando Magic

2161 (Worst)

250 (out of
1000)

25.00%

Dwight
Howard

2005

Milwaukee Bucks

3052 (6thworst)

63 (out of
1000)

6.30%

Andrew
Bogut

1986

(conveyed to the Cleveland Cavaliers via

Philadelphia 76ers)[b]

1987

2006

Toronto Raptors

2755 (5thworst)

88 (out of
1000)

2007

Portland Trail Blazers

3250 (6thworst)

2008

Chicago Bulls

2009
2010
2011

8.80%

Andrea
Bargnani

53 (out of
1000)

5.30%

Greg Oden

3349 (9thworst)

17 (out of
1000)

1.70%

Derrick
Rose

Los Angeles Clippers

1963 (2ndworst)[f]

177 (out of
1000)

17.70%

Blake
Griffin

Washington Wizards

2656 (5thworst)

103 (out of
1000)

10.30%

John Wall

3250 (8thworst)

28 (out of
1000)

2.80%

Kyrie Irving

Los Angeles Clippers

(conveyed to the Cleveland Cavaliers)[g]

2012

New Orleans Hornets

2145[h] (T3rd-worst)

137 (out of
1000)

13.70%

Anthony
Davis

2013

Cleveland Cavaliers

2458 (3rdworst)

156 (out of
1000)

15.60%

Anthony
Bennett

2014

Cleveland Cavaliers

3349 (9thworst)

17 (out of
1000)

1.70%

Andrew
Wiggins

Notes
a. From 1985 to 1988, each of the 7 non-playoff teams had an equal chance to win the lottery, i.e. 14.29%.
b. The Philadelphia 76ers obtained Los Angeles Clippers' first-round pick in a previous trade on October 6, 1979 that sent
Joe Bryant to the Clippers.[22] On June 16, 1986, after the lottery and a day before the draft, the 76ers traded the first
pick to the Cleveland Cavaliers in exchange for Roy Hinson.[23]
c. In 1989, each of the 9 non-playoff teams had an equal chance to win the lottery, i.e. 11.11%.
d. The Toronto Raptors and the Vancouver Grizzlies were not eligible to win the lottery in 1996, 1997 and 1998 due to their
expansion agreement. Therefore, their lottery combinations for the first pick were excluded.
e. Due to the 199899 NBA lockout, the season was shortened to 50 games per team.[24]
f. The Los Angeles Clippers and the Washington Wizards had identical 1963 records for 2nd-worst record in the NBA.
However, the Wizards won the tiebreaker and were awarded one extra lottery combination.[25]
g. The Cleveland Cavaliers had two lottery picks, their own pick and the Los Angeles Clippers' pick. The Cavaliers
obtained the Clippers' first-round pick from a previous trade on February 24, 2011 that sent Mo Williams and Jamario
Moon to the Clippers and Baron Davis to the Cavaliers.[26] The Cavaliers, who had the second-worst record (1963),
had a combined total of 227 chances (22.7%) to win the lottery, which consists of 199 chances (19.9%) from their own
pick and 28 chances (2.8%) from the Clippers' pick.[27][28]
h. Due to the 2011 NBA lockout, the season was shortened to 66 games per team.[29]

See also
National Basketball Association portal

References
General
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Interactive, Inc. Retrieved August 22, 2009.
"Year-by-Year Lottery Probabilities" (http://www.nba.com/history/lottery_probabilities.html). NBA.com. Turner Sports
Interactive, Inc. Retrieved August 22, 2009.

Specific
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2. Bondy, Filip (May 22, 2005). "The Draft That Changed It All. Tanks to '84, the lottery was born"
(http://www.nydailynews.com/archives/sports/2005/05/22/2005-05-22_the_draft_that_changed_it_al.html).
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3. DuPree, David (June 25, 2007). "25 drafts, dozens of stars, one Michael"
(http://www.usatoday.com/sports/basketball/nba/2007-06-24-draft-lookback_N.htm). USA Today (Gannett Co. Inc).
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(http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/articles/20070328/849887-p.html). SportingNews.com. Sporting News. Retrieved
August 22, 2009.
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(http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4188/is_20070522/ai_n19166711/). The Indianapolis Star. May 22, 2007.
Retrieved October 4, 2009.
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(http://www.nba.com/2009/news/features/fran_blinebury/05/19/lottery/). NBA.com. Turner Sports Interactive, Inc.
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(http://www.ajur.uni.edu/v2n3/Florke%20&%20Ecker.pdf) (PDF). University of Northern Iowa. Retrieved August 22,
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(http://www.nydailynews.com/archives/sports/2003/01/12/2003-01-12__new__charlotte_gets_fast_br.html).
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(CBS Interactive Inc). May 17, 1998. Retrieved August 22, 2009.
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11. Higin, Sean. "Report: Board of Governors expected to pass draft lottery reform, Sixers and Thunder opposed"
(http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/10/20/report-board-of-governors-expected-to-pass-draft-lottery-reformsixers-and-thunder-opposed/). probasketballtalk.com. Retrieved 2014-10-21.

12. "Griffin the big gift at lottery's 25th anniversary" (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/basketball/nba/2009-05-183301876890_x.htm). USA Today. May 18, 2009. Retrieved May 20, 2010.
13. McManis, Sam (May 14, 1985). "NBA's New Showtime: It's Called the Lottery" (http://articles.latimes.com/1985-0514/sports/sp-19104_1_draft-lottery). Los Angeles Times. Retrieved May 20, 2010.
14. Rovell, Darren (May 16, 2002). "NBA out to prove conspiracy theorists wrong"
(http://sports.espn.go.com/nbadraft/story?id=1383452). ESPN.com. ESPN Internet Ventures. Retrieved April 8, 2012.
15. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bX1kMlG8c7Y
16. Dengate, Jeff (May 16, 2007). "Let the Ping-Pong Balls Fall"
(http://www.nba.com/features/inside_lottery_050524.html). NBA.com. Archived
(http://www.webcitation.org/68Oj2mcnc) from the original on June 13, 2012.
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(http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=draftreview/090624). ESPN.com. Archived
(http://www.webcitation.org/68OjA5Fsn) from the original on June 13, 2012.
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(http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/06/11/david-stern-expects-your-draft-conspiracy-theories-now/).
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the original on June 13, 2012.
20. Matuszewski, Erik (May 21, 2008). "Bulls Win NBA's Draft Lottery, Eye Beasley, Rose With Top Pick"
(http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601079&sid=a8oVsNTz65cA). Bloomberg. Bloomberg L.P. Retrieved
August 22, 2009.
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(http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/sports/basketball/15nba.html). The New York Times (The New York Times
Company). Retrieved February 22, 2009.
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(http://www.nba.com/2009/playoffs2009/04/17/draft.tiebreakers/index.html). NBA.com. Turner Sports Interactive, Inc.
April 17, 2009. Retrieved August 17, 2010.
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ESPN.com. ESPN Internet Ventures. February 24, 2011. Retrieved April 8, 2012.
27. "Cavaliers win draft lottery, will pick No. 1" (http://www.nba.com/2011/news/05/17/draft-lottery.ap/index.html).
NBA.com. Turner Sports Interactive, Inc. May 17, 2011. Retrieved May 18, 2011.
28. "Cavs win No. 1 pick; Wolves 2nd" (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2011/news/story?id=6560322). ESPN.com.
ESPN Internet Ventures. May 18, 2011. Retrieved May 18, 2011.
29. Beck, Howard (November 28, 2011). "Two Exhibition Games for N.B.A. Teams"
(http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/29/sports/basketball/two-exhibition-games-for-nba-teams.html?ref=basketball). The
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New York Times. Retrieved November 28, 2011.

External links
NBA.com (http://www.nba.com/)
NBA.com: NBA Draft History (http://www.nba.com/history/draft_index.html)
The Hoops Report: NBA Draft Lottery (http://thehoopsreport.com/article.aspx?id=499)
Retrieved from "http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=NBA_draft_lottery&oldid=655267751"
Categories: National Basketball Association draft Recurring events established in 1985
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