Hallie Coatney

Mass Media and American Politics

4/24/16
Semester Research Report
The past few months leading up to the 2016 Presidential election
have been nothing short of eventful. Politicians and TV personalities
alike say it will be an unprecedented election to remember for years to
come. However, historical patterns and the political climate developing
over the last few election cycles have helped to shape the 2016
election into the phenomenon that it is. The challenges facing both the
Democrats and Republicans are nothing we havent seen before, but
this time their culmination is being scrutinized by all, most likely
thanks to Donald Trump. What happened in 2008, 2012, and 2014 has
led the country to where it is now, with Democrats and Republicans at
odds with each and within their own parties as well.
The Democrats main goal for this November is to continue
Obamas legacy with who will most likely be Hillary Clinton. However
this is proving to be a difficult task to accomplish. First off, history is
against her or any other Democratic candidate winning the presidency.
Since the 1950s with the exception of Jimmy Carter and George H W
Bush there have been two Democratic terms followed by two
Republican terms. So if the typical cycle repeats itself a Republican
should win the 2016 election. The second challenge facing the

Democrats is the divide between supporters of Clinton and Bernie

Sanders. As with Republican voters, there are a large number of
Democratic voters with anti-establishment feelings. These voters tend
to be much morel liberal and progressive and be drawn to Sanders who
is the outsider candidate. Clinton represents the more moderate and
establishment wing of the party. When it comes to the general election
voters will have to rally around the chosen nominee despite if its their
preferred one or it may cost the Democratic party the presidency. One
reason Clinton is losing some voters to Sanders is because she doesnt
have as strong of a narrative, or really a narrative at all. Sanders is a
Democratic Socialist whose main mission is to attack income
inequality. But Clinton doesnt have one resounding message that is
universally recognizable; its hard to tell what issue is most important
to her. Sanders is also better able to channel the revolution-style
campaign that Obama had in 2008 and has also similarly been able to
inspire voters especially young people while Clinton once again is
the establishment candidate that people find hard to get very excited
about. Its hard to claim that Clinton would continue Obamas legacy
when Sanders campaign is much more similar to his. And when it
comes to Obamas legacy, thats a double edge sword for Democrats.
While that strategy is obviously appealing to Democrats who approve
of Obamas performance in office, its a turn off for Republicans.
Advertising the Democratic candidate as an extension of Obamas

presidency is a risky move when trying to pull in moderate

Republicans, and may cause them to vote with their party even if that
means voting for Donald Trump.
On the other side, the Republicans are facing the difficult task of
trying to avoid the mistakes they made in the 2008 and 2012 elections.
One lesson they learned from the last two presidential elections is that
they need to work on growing their voter base. The Republican party
has tended to be less popular with women and minorities due to the
fact that the party is much less socially progressive than the
Democratic party. To combat this the party has tried to get behind
minority candidates like Ben Carson or Marco Rubio or with female VP
picks like Sarah Palin and Carly Fiorina. So far these attempts have
been unsuccessful and in the next few months we will see whether or
not the Fiorina pick helps Ted Cruz at all. The Republican party has also
unsuccessfully tried to promote candidates who are more moderate on
social issues, but somehow Cruz and Donald Trump have taken over
this election. Both have alienated many minorities based on their
beliefs and statements they have made. After the 2008 and 2012
elections the Republican party also decided to conduct what is known
as the GOP Autopsy, in order to improve their primary processes. The
party leaders realized that having later primaries and fewer winners
take all states hurt Mitt Romneys campaign against Obama in 2012.
And so they sped up the primary process so that in the 2016 election

the nominee would be decided sooner which would give the party time
to rally around the candidate and give them more time to campaign
against the Democratic nominee. However, they probably did not
expect Donald Trump to be the likely nominee and that many would
actually be pushing for a contested convention. Time will only tell what
lessons the Republican party takes away from the 2016 election.
The results and turnout of the 2014 midterm elections created
some of the issues that have emerged before the presidential election
in November. Firstly, it left the country with a divided government. A
Democratic president now had a Republican controlled Congress, a
recipe for gridlock and conflict. This tension gave both parties fuel for
the campaign process, allowing them to reason that their party was the
best to lead the country and that the other party was to blame for our
problems. Democrats argue that the reason nothing got done was
because of the Republican controlled Congress, that Obama did his
best to combat this obstacle but could only do so much. And
Republicans claim that they did their best and its Obama to blame for
the political discord and inaction. The low voter turnout in the 2014
midterms also had great implications. The fact that it was the lowest
voter turnout in about 70 years showed just unhappy many people
were with the government and how little faith they had in it. The
feelings of negativity surrounding party establishment and elite within
both parties foreshadowed that this would be an anti-establishment

election, a year for outsiders to come to the forefront. These antiestablishment feelings are also evident from the fact that many 2014
candidates that came from politically powerful families lost their
elections. The midterms also indicated that voter disenfranchisement
would become a major issue. Many states enacted voter ID laws before
the election that made it harder for people particularly minorities or
those likely to be Democratic supporters to vote. This issue
resurfaced in the 2016 primaries, with people concerned about long
voting lines and closed primaries. More and more people are rallying
around the idea that the government should be making it easier for
people to vote, not harder. When keeping in mind this great voter
dissatisfaction its not hard to understand why Bernie Sanders and
Donald Trump are so popular. People are looking to outsider candidates
that they believe can help combat the corruption and unproductivity
they see going on. And it explains why candidates like Kasich
moderate and with credible experience arent gaining traction or
popularity. Although people have said that the 2016 election cycle has
been the most surprising ever, when considering the political climate
developing over the last few years it really should come as no shock.
This November we will see if Obama gets his second reelection,
that is, will the Democratic party be able to win a third term,
something that only George H W Bush has been able to do since the
mid 20th century. The FDR and Truman presidencies were the last time

Democrats have controlled the office for more than two consecutive
terms. The most basic explanation for this trend is that the longer a
president is in power the more opportunities he or she has to make
enemies or to do things that the public disagrees with. Voters become
disillusioned with both the president and their party and they feel like
its time for a change. Many people also believe there should be a
natural pattern or exchange of power in this country, that one party
shouldnt be in charge for too long or it may become too powerful. If at
the end of a presidents 8 years in office the countrys economic,
foreign policy, or domestic problems havent vastly improved then
most voters feel like its time to give the other party a shot at fixing
them. In order for a party to win a third term there must have been
significant improvements to the countrys circumstances and they
must be able to prove that they can continue these improvements for
at least the next 4 years. If Hillary Clinton is able to accomplish this
and win the election in November it will be no easy task.
Currently it looks as though Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will
be the nominees for their respective parties as their delegate counts
become increasingly difficult to beat. And at this point its hard to say
which of them is the front-runner, both of them have issues with their
campaigns and face an uphill battle to winning the presidency. Trumps
ticket to winning the election is securing moderate Republican voters,
who otherwise might stay home from the polls given the choice

between him and Clinton. In order to do this he needs to tone down the
harsh rhetoric hes been using for most of the campaign and be a little
more careful with his comments, which he has already been trying to
do. Another thing that would appeal to moderate Republicans is
choosing a more moderate pick for Vice President. Maybe a Republican
governor with a little bit of name recognition that isnt too far to the
right might help balance out Trumps outlandish nature and make
voters feel like hes a safer choice. He can also hope that some of
Clintons scandals such as the email issue escalate and alienate
important swing or independent voters. Clintons issue is winning over
the much more liberal die-hard Sanders supporters, many of whom
have claimed they wont vote for her if she is the nominee. This means
she cant shift her platform back to the middle during the general
election after Sanders pushed her to the left in the primary. Like Trump
she can help her chances of winning with her Vice President pick. But
unlike Trump, who needs to pick a moderate, Clinton needs to pick
someone more to the left than her. Choosing a woman or minority
running mate with a more liberal track record can help increase her
progressive image and appeal to ultra-liberals. Running against Trump
also gives her a slight edge because many Democrats who might not
prefer her over Sanders will still vote for her so that Trump doesnt win.
Clinton also needs to work on improving her relatability and credibility
with voters. Although that is a difficult thing to accomplish at this point

in the campaign without coming off as fake or desperate. Time will tell
whether the candidates can fix their problems and which one will be
successful enough to become the next president of the United States.
Ultimately no one knows for sure what will happen in November,
predictions and polls can only tell us so much. We know what history
tells us is likely to happen but as many have said this is the election
where anything can happen. People are so fascinated by politics
because theres always a surprise; nothing is ever a sure thing. And
four years from now well be talking about how the 2016 election
influenced the political climate and what lessons each party learned
from its mistakes this time around.

Works Cited
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In first debate, Republicans ditch the lessons of 2012.
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The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election.
(2013)
US midterm elections: what next after Republican victory?. (2016). The
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Retrieved 30 April 2016, from
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/05/2014-electionresults_n_6076332.html
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