Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Alper ZEL,
Bucharest 27 May 2016
Agenda
Purpose of the study
Analysis of the context and of the operational constraints
Scenario definition
Quantification of impacts in the different scenarios
Conclusions
BeforeWTO
Trade Facilitation Agreement
April 2014
World Bank report published:
Road Transport Quotas, especially
transit quotas, restrict free
movement of goods
The context
(US$ millions)
Roads share of the import trade from Turkey (measured by value) has
grown while its share of export trade has declined, but it represents nearly
50% of the trade
Growth in trade was facilitated by the Ankara Agreement and its subsequent
extensions / modifications, and the customs union which was completed in
1995
Using ro-ro services operating between southern / western Turkish ports and Trieste in
Italy and Toulon in France. These avoid transit through countries that impose particular
constraints.
Making detours, such as trips from Turkey to France that bypass Italy by taking a northern
route.
Scenarios
Nr
Scenario Name
Bilateral
permits
Transit
permits
EU permits /
licenses
EU
agreements
no change to no change to
none
baseline
baseline
none
2a Transit liberalisation
Agreement
adaptation
Transit liberalisation +
2b
additional EU permits
Business as usual
removal
none
Agreement
adaptation
removal
add
according to
real needs
yes
EU management of
quotas
removal
removal
bilateral EU
permits
yes
Full liberalisation
removal
removal
not
necessary
not necessary
Transit
liberalisation
Additional
quotas
EU management
Full
liberalisation
1466
1566
1566
1566
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.9%
1781
1841
1841
1894
7.4%
7.7%
7.7%
7.9%
13.2
14.1
14.1
14.1
136
143
143
143
2122
2193
2193
2257
0.20%
0.20%
0.20%
0.21%
148
153
153
158
23.4
24.2
24.2
24.9
0.14%
0.15%
0.15%
0.15%
61
64
64
67
change in %
EU road imports from Turkey, mln
change in %
GDP effect, %
Additional GHG emissions, Gg CO2 eq. per year
General conclusions