Market Size = 4,500 Trips/Year

68.08%

70.00%

61.82%
60.00%

54.17%
47.84%

50.00%
41.25%
40.00%
Internal Rate of Return
30.00%

20.00%

10.00%

0.00%
Time (Years)

Market Size = 3,000 Trips/Year

28.06%

30.00%
18.32%
20.00%

10.00%

0.00%
Internal Rate of Return
-10.00%

-20.00%

-30.00%

-30.00%

-40.00%
Time (Years)

29.36%

28.47%

Option Analysis for Moose Hat Route (No Considerations)

1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000

Revenues
Total Costs

Money ($)

600,000

Profits
Alliance w/Seal Air

400,000
200,000
0
0

-200,000
-400,000
Time (Years)

Option Analysis for Moose Hat Route (With Considerations)

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
0

-50,000

5
Route Integration

Profit ($)

Alliance w/Seal Air

-100,000

-150,000

-200,000

-250,000

-300,000
Time (Years)

Operating the
Time (Years) Time (months)
0.00
0.00
0.25
3.00
0.50
6.00
0.75
9.00
1.00
12.00
1.25
15.00
1.50
18.00
1.75
21.00
2.00
24.00
2.25
27.00
2.50
30.00
2.75
33.00
3.00
36.00
3.25
39.00
3.50
42.00
3.75
45.00
4.00
48.00
4.25
51.00
4.50
54.00
4.75
57.00
5.00
60.00

new Route
Fixed Costs
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00

Linearizing Market Size into a monthly time frame and assuming n

Assuming operating costs are not monthly and given we start a ye
NPV with a discount rate of 15% to account for Stakeholders, Risk
Put a price to the Low Quality Tag
Minimum Market Size

Market Size (trips/year)

Operating costs / year
145,000.00
145,000.00
145,000.00
145,000.00
290,000.00
290,000.00
290,000.00
290,000.00
435,000.00
435,000.00
435,000.00
435,000.00
580,000.00
580,000.00
580,000.00
580,000.00
725,000.00
725,000.00
725,000.00
725,000.00

3,000
Total Costs
200,000.00
345,000.00
345,000.00
345,000.00
345,000.00
490,000.00
490,000.00
490,000.00
490,000.00
635,000.00
635,000.00
635,000.00
635,000.00
780,000.00
780,000.00
780,000.00
780,000.00
925,000.00
925,000.00
925,000.00
925,000.00

Revenue
71,250.00
142,500.00
213,750.00
285,000.00
356,250.00
427,500.00
498,750.00
570,000.00
641,250.00
712,500.00
783,750.00
855,000.00
926,250.00
997,500.00
1,068,750.00
1,140,000.00
1,211,250.00
1,282,500.00
1,353,750.00
1,425,000.00

Profits
(200,000.00)
(273,750.00)
(202,500.00)
(131,250.00)
(60,000.00)
(133,750.00)
(62,500.00)
8,750.00
80,000.00
6,250.00
77,500.00
148,750.00
220,000.00
146,250.00
217,500.00
288,750.00
360,000.00
286,250.00
357,500.00
428,750.00
500,000.00

e into a monthly time frame and assuming no seasonality

osts are not monthly and given we start a year we get charged the costs
ate of 15% to account for Stakeholders, Risk and Inflation
Quality Tag

Alliance w/Seal Air

Profits/Revenue
50% penalty
23,625.00
11,812.50
47,250.00
23,625.00
70,875.00
35,437.50
94,500.00
47,250.00
118,125.00
59,062.50
141,750.00
70,875.00
165,375.00
82,687.50
189,000.00
94,500.00
212,625.00
106,312.50
236,250.00
118,125.00
259,875.00
129,937.50
283,500.00
141,750.00
307,125.00
153,562.50
330,750.00
165,375.00
354,375.00
177,187.50
378,000.00
189,000.00
401,625.00
200,812.50
425,250.00
212,625.00
448,875.00
224,437.50
472,500.00
236,250.00

NPV NR
(200,000.00)
(270,463.91)
(202,282.18)
(140,036.53)
(83,333.33)
(147,251.60)
(95,400.21)
(48,274.25)
(5,555.56)
(63,152.73)
(24,082.16)
11,234.96
43,055.56
(8,552.04)
20,557.65
46,693.15
70,061.73
24,047.10
45,430.91
64,464.31
81,314.30

Iterator

IRR

0.00E+00

-30.00%

0.00E+00

18.32%

2.47E-09

28.06%

6.81E-09

29.36%

0.00%

28.47%

20% discount rate we break even by month 33

month 33

NPV AS
11,286.17
21,566.58
30,908.44
39,375.00
47,025.70
53,916.44
60,099.75
65,625.00
70,538.55
74,883.94
78,702.06
82,031.25
84,907.51
87,364.60
89,434.15
91,145.83
92,527.42
93,604.93
94,402.72
94,943.58

Operating the
Time (months)
3.00
6.00
9.00
12.00
15.00
18.00
21.00
24.00
27.00
30.00
33.00
36.00
39.00
42.00
45.00
48.00
51.00
54.00
57.00
60.00

new Route
Fixed Costs
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00
200,000.00

Market Size (trips/year)

Operating costs / year
145,000.00
145,000.00
145,000.00
145,000.00
290,000.00
290,000.00
290,000.00
290,000.00
435,000.00
435,000.00
435,000.00
435,000.00
580,000.00
580,000.00
580,000.00
580,000.00
725,000.00
725,000.00
725,000.00
725,000.00

4,500
Total Costs
200,000.00
345,000.00
345,000.00
345,000.00
345,000.00
490,000.00
490,000.00
490,000.00
490,000.00
635,000.00
635,000.00
635,000.00
635,000.00
780,000.00
780,000.00
780,000.00
780,000.00
925,000.00
925,000.00
925,000.00
925,000.00

Revenue
106,875.00
213,750.00
320,625.00
427,500.00
534,375.00
641,250.00
748,125.00
855,000.00
961,875.00
1,068,750.00
1,175,625.00
1,282,500.00
1,389,375.00
1,496,250.00
1,603,125.00
1,710,000.00
1,816,875.00
1,923,750.00
2,030,625.00
2,137,500.00

Profits
(200,000.00)
(238,125.00)
(131,250.00)
(24,375.00)
82,500.00
44,375.00
151,250.00
258,125.00
365,000.00
326,875.00
433,750.00
540,625.00
647,500.00
609,375.00
716,250.00
823,125.00
930,000.00
891,875.00
998,750.00
1,105,625.00
1,212,500.00

Alliance w/Seal Air

Profits/Revenue
50% penalty
35,437.50
17,718.75
70,875.00
35,437.50
106,312.50
53,156.25
141,750.00
70,875.00
177,187.50
88,593.75
212,625.00
106,312.50
248,062.50
124,031.25
283,500.00
141,750.00
318,937.50
159,468.75
354,375.00
177,187.50
389,812.50
194,906.25
425,250.00
212,625.00
460,687.50
230,343.75
496,125.00
248,062.50
531,562.50
265,781.25
567,000.00
283,500.00
602,437.50
301,218.75
637,875.00
318,937.50
673,312.50
336,656.25
708,750.00
354,375.00

NPV NR
(200,000.00)
(236,426.26)
(137,240.12)
(46,820.59)
35,416.67
(5,428.06)
67,204.93
132,978.97
192,361.11
149,582.58
201,758.30
248,590.36
290,451.39
247,518.23
284,038.19
316,415.21
344,945.99
303,098.04
327,731.49
349,170.93
367,652.07

Iterator

IRR

0.00E+00

41.25%

1.52E-08

68.08%

1.18E-08

61.82%

8.73E-10

54.17%

-1.18E-01

47.84%

20% discount rate we break even by month 12

NPV AS
16,929.25
32,349.86
46,362.67
59,062.50
70,538.55
80,874.66
90,149.63
98,437.50
105,807.82
112,325.92
118,053.08
123,046.88
127,361.27
131,046.90
134,151.23
136,718.75
138,791.13
140,407.39
141,604.08
142,415.36
month 12