MEMORANDUM

TO:

INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM:

CHRIS WILSON, CEO

RYAN REYNOLDS, VICE PRESIDENT

SUBJECT:

JASON LEWIS IS THE CLEAR FAVORITE TO WIN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY IN MINNESOTA CD 2

DATE:

MAY 18, 2016

Summary
WPA conducted a study among n=300, likely Republican primary voters in Minnesota's
2nd Congressional District from May 15-16, 2016. This research revealed that candidate
Jason Lewis has a substantial, clear advantage in the Republican primary contest.
Indeed, Jason Lewis leads the primary field among a host of key measures, and receives a
near majority of the ballot share in this multi-candidate field.

Ballot
Lewis receives ballot support from nearly half of all likely Republican primary voters. More
importantly, Lewis ballot intensity is also strong as those who say they definitely support
Jason Lewis are double the total ballot support for both John Howe and Darlene Miller
combined.
Lewis

Miller

Howe

Total Ballot

46%

6%

13%

Definitely support

28%

3%

6%

Probably Support

12%

2%

5%

Leaning

6%

1%

2%

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Image
Lewis' enjoys strong image and awareness measures. His name ID is double that of the
rest of the field, and he has a 32-point advantage in favorability vs. John Howe and a 39point advantage in favorability vs. Darlene Miller.
Name ID

Never Heard of

Total Favorable

Total Unfavorable

Jason Lewis

64%

36%

49%

4%

Darlene Miller

31%

69%

10%

7%

John Howe

32%

68%

17%

5%

Methodology
WPA Research conducted a survey among likely Republican primary voters in Minnesotas
Second Congressional District. The sample for this survey was stratified based on
geography, age, and gender. This methodology allows us to avoid post-survey weighting
which can reduce the reliability of survey results. Respondents were contacted by phone
via a live telephone operator interview May 15-16, 2016. The study has a sample size of
n=303 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error equal to 5.7% in 95 out of
100 cases. 22% of interviews were conducted via cell phone.

About Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

Since 1998, WPA Opinion Research has been a leading provider of political polling for
campaigns from President to Governor and U.S. Senate to Mayor and City Council in all 50
states and several foreign countries. In the 2013-2014 election cycle, 83% of WPA clients
won. WPA clients' win ratio has exceeded the standard by double digits for four straight
political cycles.
WPA has been nationally recognized for providing cutting edge research to help our clients
win. The American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC) awarded a Pollie to WPA
for our Predictive Analytics and Adaptive Sampling techniques. The award highlighted
these advanced methodologies which allowed us to buck national GOP polling trends and
deliver industry-leading results.
In addition to our political and policy research, WPA has conducted market research for
more than 110 fortune 500 corporations, donor research for more than 200 of the largest
and most successful not-for-profit organizations around the country, and alumni research
for dozens of colleges and universities.

Confidential

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