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4/29/2016
PRESENTATION OUTLINE
Solar
India
Approach
Electricity
Renewable
Waste
to
Energy
Q&A
USA
Wind
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MODELING APPROACH
Macro
Energy
Industry
Technology
Specific
Refinement
Sensitivity
Studies
MODEL
4/29/2016
Generation
Capacity
Number
End Users
Losses
Growth
Rate
Growth Rate
Competition
Supply
Substitutes
Demand
2nd
Energy
Consumer
320
million
Demand
0.73%
Population
Growth
Industry
Residential
Services
Transport
Agriculture
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
India
4th
3,000
Energy
Consumer
1.3
billion
2,000
1.2%
Population
1,000
Growth
0
2000
2013
2020
2030
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2040
Conventional
India
Coal
Gas
Oil
Nuclear
41%
40%
38%
27%
28%
30%
31%
32%
34%
Renewables
Hydro
Bio Fuels
Wind
Geothermal
Solar PV
USA
18%
2014
18%
2015
19%
2016
20%
2017
21%
2018
22%
2019
35%
23%
2020
37%
24%
2021
25%
2022
26%
2023
28%
2024
Electricity Price*
India
US
$0.19
$0.12
($/KWH, 2011)
*ADJUSTED FOR PURCHASING POWER
7
Renewables,
202, 18%
CSP, 1, 1%
Geothermal, 3, 2%
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Renewables
Oil, 7, 3%
Nuclear, 6, 2%
Other, 7, 9%
Solar PV, 3, 4%
Renewables,
78, 27%
Wind, 23, 29%
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India
Bioenergy
Wind
Solar PV
Hydro
Renewable Energy Supply, India, GW
350
Renewable Energy Supply
USA ,GW
300
250
200
150
100
50
-
Wind
Solar PV
Other
160
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
10
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IEA
11
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IEA
12
Availability of MSW
Price of Electricity
Public Support
Property Prices
Tax Credits
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13
350
254
266
279
260
273
286
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
300
293
299
307
314
2019
2020
2021
2022
321
329
337
2023
2024
2025
250
200
150
100
50
0
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Model Demo
14
13.50
13.00
12.50
12.00
11.50
11.00
10.50
10.00
9.50
9.00
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
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Model Demo
2022
2023
15
Reycling Rate
40%
3,000,000
39%
2,500,000
37%
2,000,000
36%
1,500,000
35%
34%
1,000,000
Recycling Rate, %
38%
33%
500,000
32%
31%
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
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Model Demo
16
No 42%
Independents, 66%
Yes 58%
Liberal Democrats, 89%
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Model Demo
17
3.10%
Implications
168
208
Moody's/RCA
Commercial
Price Index
2015Q4-
Moody's/RCA
All Property
Price Index
2015Q4
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Model Demo
18
Application
420 $MM
CAPEX WTE plant
0.011 $/kWh
30%
Investment Tax
3.329 GW per
Yr.
Energy Production
$126MM
$41.8MM
ITC
PTC
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Model Demo
19
MSW Generation
133,760 TPD
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20
$0.08
Price, per
kWh
5MW
Generating
Capacity
$50,000
Capital Cost,
per TPD
+3%
Maintenance
Cost, per Yr.
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21
700,000
616,467
500,000
456,642
400,000
338,253
250,558
2
185,599
137,480
30,660
1
0
2013
41,391
55,878
75,435
2014
2015
2016
200,000
101,837
1
2
1
300,000
600,000
100,000
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
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22
Projections
#REF!
Rapid Urbanization
1
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
Model Demo
0.1
0
0
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23
Federal WTE
identified issues:
Considerations:
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24
Passive
Sun Energy => Heat
Active
Sun Radiation => Electricity
Photovoltaic (PV) Cells
Concentrated Solar Panels
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Capacity
Efficiency
Electricity Demand
End Users
Production Costs
Rebates
Capital Expenditure
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140,000,000
120,000,000
25,000
Accumulated Capacity =
20,000
100,000,000
15,000
80,000,000
60,000,000
10,000
40,000,000
5,000
20,000,000
-
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Model Demo
28
- PG Own Use
Growth Rate
- Transmission and
Distribution Loss
3.0%
Total Demand
4,700
4,650
2.5%
4,600
4,550
2.0%
4,500
1.5%
4,450
4,400
1.0%
4,350
4,300
0.5%
4,250
0.0%
4,200
2013
2014
Gross Demand
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
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Model Demo
29
1.2 kW to 6.5kW
$4,750
$3,700
$3,000
$2,800
$2,750
$2,613
2009
Model Demo
$2,482
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Model Demo
$5,000
Cash Rebates
From state, municipality, utilities or NGOs 10%
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
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Model Demo
32
1. PPA
Agreements
2. Tax
Concessions
3. Capacity
4. Production
Costs
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34
Model Inputs
Revenue India
Revenue US
$18,000
$16,000
USA
$24
Per MWh,
Average (2014)
India
$40
Per MWh,
Average (2012)
$25-$25
$30-$45
Per MWh,
Range (2014)
Per MWh,
Range (2014)
$14,000
$12,000
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
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Model Demo
2021
2022
35
USA
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
India
Accelerated
$0.01/kWh
$5,000
$-
PTC
Depreciation
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2024
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Model Demo
2023
36
500,000
140
120
400,000
100
350,000
300,000
80
250,000
60
200,000
150,000
40
100,000
20
50,000
-
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
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Model Demo
Installed Capacity GW
450,000
2024
37
$7,000
$6,000
1980s $33
1990s $22
2000s $10
2010s TBD
Costs, in $MM
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
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Model Demo
2022
2023
38
1. Regulation
Changes
3. Rise of
Distributed
Power
Networks
2. Tax
Concession
Conclusions
4. Funding
Challenges
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QUESTIONS?
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Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
Year
ITC
2016
2017
2018
2019
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30%
24%
18%
12%
55
GDP
US GDP
30000
25000
20000
17,810
18,494
19,297
20,127
20,906
21,710
22,593
23,528
24,497
25,506
26,559
27,660
6.64%
7.29%
7.26%
7.46%
7.54%
7.65%
7.70%
7.74%
2.43%
2.43%
2.40%
2.50%
2.38%
2.13%
1.96%
1.98%
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
6.09%
5.08%
15000
10000
2.22%
1.49%
5000
2015
2016*
2017*
2018*
2019*
2020*
2021*
Year
2022*
2023*
2024*
2025*
2026*
2012
2013
India
USA
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