CALCULO DE CAUDALES MAXIMOS Y SUS PROVABILIDADES CON LAS CURVAS DE BUMBEL

Ao

Q max cronologico

Numero de orden m

1
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

2 (m3/s)
580
689
506
653
749
621
494
793
607
783
723
889
662
911
637
478
313
365

3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

CALCULO DE LOS CAUDALES SEGN LA CURVA DE GUMBEL

a
P
5.26
10.53
15.79
21.05
26.32
31.58
36.84
42.11
47.37
52.63
57.89
63.16
68.42
73.68

b
1/(1-P/100)
1.0556
1.1176
1.1875
1.2667
1.3571
1.4615
1.5833
1.7273
1.9000
2.1111
2.3750
2.7143
3.1667
3.8000

c
ln(ln(b))
-2.9175
-2.1962
-1.7611
-1.4423
-1.1862
-0.9689
-0.7775
-0.6041
-0.4434
-0.2914
-0.1450
-0.0015
0.1421
0.2889

78.95
84.21
89.47
94.74

4.7500
6.3333
9.5000
19.0000

0.4435
0.6129
0.8115
1.0799

1.00
2.00
4.00
5.00

1.0101
1.0204
1.0417
1.0526

-4.6001
-3.9019
-3.1985
-2.9702

94.00
95.00
97.00
98.00
99.00

16.6667
20.0000
33.3333
50.0000
100.0000

1.0344
1.0972
1.2546
1.3641
1.5272

ES CON LAS CURVAS DE BUMBEL Y PEARSON III

Parametros de la curva de Gumbel

Caudales Max
reordenados
4
911
889
793
783
749
723
689
662
653
637
621
607
580
506
494
478
365
313

5 (%)
5.26
10.53
15.79
21.05
26.32
31.58
36.84
42.11
47.37
52.63
57.89
63.16
68.42
73.68
78.95
84.21
89.47
94.74

d
miu(n)+( c )
-2.3982
-1.6769
-1.2419
-0.9230
-0.6669
-0.4496
-0.2583
-0.0849
0.0759
0.2279
0.3743
0.5178
0.6614
0.8082

e
Dst*(d)/sigma(n)
-374.7146
-262.0098
-194.0334
-144.2139
-104.2020
-70.2554
-40.3528
-13.2591
11.8567
35.6047
58.4750
80.9050
103.3358
126.2793

P
Media aritmetica
Desviacin Estandar
miu (n=18)
sigma (n=18)

1000

Qmax = f(P(%))

800
600
Qmax (m3/s)
400
200

0
0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00
P (%)

f
Med.art-( e )
1010.9924
898.2876
830.3112
780.4917
740.4797
706.5331
676.6306
649.5369
624.4210
600.6731
577.8028
555.3728
532.9420
509.9985

g
Qcalc.Gumbel
1011.0
898.3
830.3
780.5
740.5
706.5
676.6
649.5
624.4
600.7
577.8
555.4
532.9
510.0

0.9628
1.1322
1.3308
1.5992

150.4291
176.9020
207.9287
249.8671

485.8487
459.3758
428.3491
386.4107

485.8
459.4
428.3
386.4

-4.0809
-3.3827
-2.6793
-2.4509

-637.6163
-528.5242
-418.6207
-382.9438

1273.8941
1164.8020
1054.8984
1019.2216

1273.9
1164.8
1054.9
1019.2

1.5537
1.6165
1.7739
1.8833
2.0465

242.7547
252.5655
277.1657
294.2620
319.7495

393.5231
383.7123
359.1121
342.0158
316.5283

393.5
383.7
359.1
342.0
316.5

de la curva de Gumbel

636.27777778
163.419995
0.51928
1.045920

Qmax = f(Aos
1000
800
600
400
Qmax (m3/s)
200
0

max = f(P(%))

30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00

P (%)

GRAFICO CONJUNTO DE LOS VALORES

REGISTRADOS Y VALORES CALCULADOS
P=P.empir. Q.reordenados Qcalc.Gumbel
5.26
911
1010.9924
10.53
889
898.2876
15.79
793
830.3112
21.05
783
780.4917
26.32
749
740.4797
31.58
723
706.5331
36.84
689
676.6306
42.11
662
649.5369
47.37
653
624.4210
52.63
637
600.6731
57.89
621
577.8028
63.16
607
555.3728
68.42
580
532.9420
73.68
506
509.9985

Aos

78.95
84.21
89.47
94.74

494
478
365
313

485.8487
459.3758
428.3491
386.4107

1.00
2.00
4.00
5.00

1273.8941
1164.8020
1054.8984
1019.2216

94.00
95.00
97.00
98.00
99.00

393.5231
383.7123
359.1121
342.0158
316.5283

Qmax=f(Aos)

ax = f(Aos)

Aos

1000
900
800
700
600
500
Qmax (m3/s)
400
300
200
100
0
1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980
Aos

1400
1200
Caudal
medio mensual (m3/s)
1000
800
600
400
200

Q. Reordenado

800
600
400
200
0
0.00

10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00

Probabilidad P(%) de que el caudal sea igualado o superado

=f(Aos)

0 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982

Aos

do

CALCULO DE LOS CAUDALES SEGN LA CURVA DE GUMB

a
P
5.26
10.53
15.79
21.05
26.32
31.58
36.84
42.11
47.37
52.63
57.89
63.16
68.42
73.68
78.95
84.21
89.47
94.74

b
1/(1-P/100)
1.0556
1.1176
1.1875
1.2667
1.3571
1.4615
1.5833
1.7273
1.9000
2.1111
2.3750
2.7143
3.1667
3.8000
4.7500
6.3333
9.5000
19.0000

c
ln(ln(b))
-2.9175
-2.1962
-1.7611
-1.4423
-1.1862
-0.9689
-0.7775
-0.6041
-0.4434
-0.2914
-0.1450
-0.0015
0.1421
0.2889
0.4435
0.6129
0.8115
1.0799

1.00
2.00
4.00
5.00

1.0101
1.0204
1.0417
1.0526

-4.6001
-3.9019
-3.1985
-2.9702

94.00

16.6667

1.0344

95.00
97.00
98.00
99.00
90.00 100.00

perado

20.0000
33.3333
50.0000
100.0000

1.0972
1.2546
1.3641
1.5272

SEGN LA CURVA DE GUMBEL

d
e
f
g
miu(n)+( c ) Dst*(d)/sigma(n) Med.art-( e ) Qcalc.Gumbel
-2.3982
-374.7146
1010.9924
1011.0
-1.6769
-262.0098
898.2876
898.3
-1.2419
-194.0334
830.3112
830.3
-0.9230
-144.2139
780.4917
780.5
-0.6669
-104.2020
740.4797
740.5
-0.4496
-70.2554
706.5331
706.5
-0.2583
-40.3528
676.6306
676.6
-0.0849
-13.2591
649.5369
649.5
0.0759
11.8567
624.4210
624.4
0.2279
35.6047
600.6731
600.7
0.3743
58.4750
577.8028
577.8
0.5178
80.9050
555.3728
555.4
0.6614
103.3358
532.9420
532.9
0.8082
126.2793
509.9985
510.0
0.9628
150.4291
485.8487
485.8
1.1322
176.9020
459.3758
459.4
1.3308
207.9287
428.3491
428.3
1.5992
249.8671
386.4107
386.4
-4.0809
-3.3827
-2.6793
-2.4509

-637.6163
-528.5242
-418.6207
-382.9438

1273.8941
1164.8020
1054.8984
1019.2216

1273.9
1164.8
1054.9
1019.2

1.5537

242.7547

393.5231

393.5

1.6165
1.7739
1.8833
2.0465

252.5655
277.1657
294.2620
319.7495

383.7123
359.1121
342.0158
316.5283

383.7
359.1
342.0
316.5

Parametros de la curva de Gumbel

Media aritmetica
Desviacin Estandar
miu (n=18)
sigma (n=18)

0.1405245
0.924833
0.51928
1.045920