Lacey Slizeski

Geography 1700-010
Climate Change Paper

Even if we cant prove [a] theory, we can reject the hypothesis that all we have is
natural variability, (Shaun Lovejoy, a nonlinear physicist at McGill University Montreal). In my
research I have formed the opinion, along with the vast majority of the scientific community,
that climate change is being hugely effected by human behaviors. There is also no doubt in
my mind that the earth goes through cyclical periods of warming and cooling, (there is no
denying an ice age!) however I believe the evidence shows that the climate change we are
experiencing is like nothing the world has ever experienced before. The main reasons for this
conclusion are the mass amounts of CO2 in our atmosphere, ice core evidence of past
warmings, the rate of increasing temperatures worldwide, and extinction events that are
already occuring.

Instead of relying on computer models, which are often cited as being purely
speculative or flawed by opponents of the theory of anthropocentric climate change, a man
named Shaun Lovejoy decided to go to the Earth's own records. In order to chart the effect of
greenhouse-gas emissions on Earths climate, Lovejoy, a researcher from McGill University
turned to historical and empirical data dating back to before the 16th century, including that
found in ice cores, lake sediment records and studies of Greenlands ice cap. What he found
was an unprecedented increase in greenhouse-gasses accumulating at rapid rates over the
past century. The effects, specifically shown in the ice cores, were a rising temperature and
earlier and earlier springs each year. I believe it is important to note that the analysis of this
physical data found similar results and extrapollated similar predictions as the computers
models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Both found that doubling the

carbon-dioxide levels in the atmosphere would raise the global mean temperature by between
2.5 and 4.2 degrees Celsius and prdicted it would happen, because of human actions, in the
next thirty to sixty years.

In the past few decades scientists have noted a sharp rise in atmospheric carbon
dioxide, this corresponds to and correlates with a distinct global temperature increase. We
were not there to record the massive warming and cooling events that happened in previous
eras. However, based on animal migration patterns, evolution rates, and also the geological
records we can assume that changes like we have now in CO2 levels and global
temperatures would occur without being exaccerbated by human activity over tens of
thousands to millions of years. This means that while the Earth may be experiencing this
warming period and climactic extremes due to some sort of natural cycle, the actions of
mankind have pushed it far beyond what would occur naturally. According to the United
States National Parks Service scientists take the Earth's natural cycles and fluctuations into
account when they assert that we are currently experiencing unique conditions in Earth's
history.

But perhaps mankind contributing to global greenhouse-gas production by slashing and

burning forrest, will not have the impacts that scientists expect. How bad could it really be?
According to an article in the academic journal Nature, crop growth and water use have been
seen to benefit from increased levels of CO2, and doubling of the atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentration will lead only to a small decrease in global crop production. However,
developing countries are likely to bear the brunt of the food shortage, and in delicate
ecosystems like those in shallow marine areas, the effects of increased CO2 are already
being felt. It astounded me in going over this chapter's powerpoint that one of the mass
extinction events mentioned ocean life extinction and the acidification of the seas. This is

happening even now with global ocean temperatures increasing! Because plant and animal
life can not evolve to match the rate at which we are changing the Earth's climate, massive
deaths of marine species are already occuring. For example, a mass bleaching event in 7090 percent of Australia's Great Barrier Reef has been caused by significantly higher than
average sea temperatures as a result of the current El Nino event, coupled with a long-term
warming of the oceans due to climate change according to Professor Terry Hughes, as
quoted by the Sydney Herald. Professor Hughes, convenor of a bleaching taskforce who is
currently studying the phenomena in the Great Barrier Reef, said the current event was by far
the biggest in recorded history.

So we may never know for certain what proportion of the climate change were are
currently experiencing on a global scale, is a natural occurrence. However, we can show
through evidence of mankinds impact on the world's climate, that this period of climate
change is like nothing the world has ever experienced before. There are unprecidented
amounts of CO2 in our atmosphere, more than has ever been recorded and increasing at
faster rates than ever before. Even the ice core evidence of past warmings shows that the
past few decades have been alarming. And with the rate of increasing temperatures
worldwide, nature can't change fast enough. Accelerated climate changes challenge the
ability of living thingsplants, animals, and humansto adapt and ultimately survive rapidly
shifting environmental conditions (United States National Park Service, Rodney Cammauf). A
results, in the form of extinction events are already occuring.

Work Cited

Phillip Ross, and Shaun Lovejoy. "There Is A 99% Chance Climate Change Is Not Natural,
Says Researcher Using Historical Data, Not Computer Models." International Business Times.
International Business Times: Science, 13 Apr. 2014. Web. 19 Apr. 2016.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia, and Martin L. Parry. "Potential Impact of Climate Change on World
Food Supply." Nature 367.6459 (1994): 133-38. Web.

Tom Arup. "The Great Barrier Reef: 93% Hit by Coral Bleaching, Surveys Reveal." The
Sydney Morning Herald. The Sydney Morning Herald, 20 Apr. 2016. Web. 19 Apr. 2016.

United States. National Park Service, Rodney Cammauf. "Isn't Climate Change a Natural
Process? (U.S. National Park Service)." National Parks Service. U.S. Department of the
Interior, n.d. Web. 19 Apr. 2016.