JetBlue TN v3.

This spreadsheet supports STUDENT analysis of the case,

"JetBlue Airways IPO Valuation" (UVA -F- 1415)

Revised, February 2007

Copyright (C) 2004, by the University of Virginia Darden School Foundation.

Exhibit 7
JETBLUE AIRWAYS IPO VALUATION
Recent Valuation Multiples
Actual for 2001

AirTran
Alaska Air
America West
AMR (American)
ATA
Continental
Delta
Frontier
Midwest
Northwest
Ryanair
Southwest
United
WestJet

Price/
Share
(1)
6.6
29.1
3.5
22.3
15.0
26.2
29.3
17.0
14.6
15.7
32.1
18.5
13.5
15.9

Book
Equity/
Share
(2)
0.5
32.1
12.5
35.1
10.8
20.9
32.7
5.4
8.3
-5.1
5.5
5.3
59.6
2.8

Book Debt/ EBITDA*/

Share
Share
(3)
(4)
4.0
1.2
33.8
3.3
10.2
-4.3
69.3
-7.0
32.9
8.5
82.0
9.8
70.3
-1.4
0.0
3.2
2.7
-0.1
66.9
1.6
3.3
1.3
1.8
1.5
186.2
-37.0
1.0
2.1

Estimates for 2002

EBIT/
Share
(5)
0.8
-1.7
-6.2
-16.2
-2.0
1.4
-11.8
3.0
-1.6
-4.4
0.9
1.1
-56.1
1.3

Earnings/
Share
(6)
0.3
-1.5
-4.4
-11.5
-2.6
-1.6
-9.9
2.0
-1.1
-5.0
0.7
0.7
-39.6
0.8

Trailing

AirTran
Alaska Air
America West
AMR (American)
ATA
Continental
Delta
Frontier
Midwest
Northwest
Ryanair
Southwest
United
WestJet

Market to
Total
book
Capital
EBITDA
multiple
multiple
multiple
[1/2]
[(1+3)/(2+3)] [(1+3)/4]
13.5
2.4
8.6
0.9
1.0
19.2
0.3
0.6
-3.2
0.6
0.9
-13.1
1.4
1.1
5.6
1.3
1.1
11.0
0.9
1.0
-71.6
3.2
3.2
5.3
1.8
1.6
-298.3
-3.1
1.3
51.6
5.8
4.0
26.4
3.5
2.9
13.4
0.2
0.8
-5.4
5.6
4.4
8.1

EBIT/
Share
(7)
0.8
2.7
-4.5
12.4
-6.4
11.1
8.4
0.6
1.6
7.2
1.2
1.4
NA
1.6

Earnings/
Share
(8)
0.3
-0.8
-4.1
-3.9
-7.2
-1.2
-3.1
0.4
0.8
-2.5
0.9
0.7
-15.4
0.6

Leading
EBIT
multiple
[(1+3)/5]
13.0
-37.0
-2.2
-5.7
-23.8
77.0
-8.4
5.7
-11.0
-18.8
38.5
18.6
-3.6
12.7

PE
Multiple
[1/6]
25.3
-19.3
-0.8
-1.9
-5.7
-16.7
-3.0
8.4
-13.5
-3.1
44.0
27.6
-0.3
19.6

EBIT
PE
multiple Multiple
[(1+3)/7]
[1/8]
13.9
20.0
23.3
-38.8
-3.0
-0.8
7.4
-5.7
-7.5
-2.1
9.8
-22.4
11.8
-9.4
26.6
45.9
11.2
17.4
11.5
-6.3
30.3
34.1
14.3
28.4
NA
-0.9
10.6
26.9

Data source: Actual numbers for 2001 are from company annual reports. Estimates for 2002 are from Valueline when available, otherwise
consensus analyst estimates are used. All stock prices are quoted as of December 31, 2001. Ryanair figures are based on the respective
American Deposit Receipt prices. Westjet figures are in Canadian dollars. 1 US dollar = 1.5870 Canadian dollars as of March 31, 2002. The

calculation procedure for the valuation multiples is defined in the lower panel based on the numbered variables defined in the upper panel.

Exhibit 8
JETBLUE AIRWAYS IPO VALUATION
Historical Annual Growth Rates for Low Fare Airlines

$ Revenue Growth
Year
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Source: Compustat

AirTran

456%
186%
-4%
49%
18%
-20%
35%
-22%

ATA

Frontier

1%
21%
18%
2%
20%
21%
39%
23%
-58%

49%
125%
39%
56%
105%
79%
237%

Ryanair

20%
N/A
N/A
39%
68%

$ Gross Equipment Growth

Southwest

-20%
5%
28%
32%
51%
101%
42%
46%
32%
35%
45%
18%
35%
49%
10%
-5%
24%
14%
10%
14%
20%
21%
18%
13%
10%
16%
19%
19%
16%
12%

AirTran

2204%
175%
-40%
-4%
108%
15%
24%
7%

ATA

Frontier

11%
24%
23%
5%
4%
17%
22%
15%
-1%

186%
66%
26%
50%
50%
43%
-6%

oss Equipment Growth

Ryanair

25%
15%
29%
11%
21%

Southwest

177%
55%
61%
54%
35%
59%
66%
68%
57%
27%
23%
35%
20%
27%
13%
1%
11%
18%
17%
11%
28%
36%
13%
11%
19%
12%
9%
14%
19%
-2%

Exhibit 13
JETBLUE AIRWAYS IPO VALUATION
JetBlue Financial Forecast
$ figures in millions

Actual Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
21
34
48
62
74
86
98
108
113
117

Number of aircraft
$ Revenue/plane
Expected inflation
Operating margin

$15.3

$ Depreciation/plane
$ CapEx/New planes
Expected inflation
NWC Turnover

$0.5
$21.3

Revenue
Cash expenses
Depreciation
EBIT
Tax
NOPAT
Capital expenditure
Net working capital
Fixed assets

$17.6
16%
13.3%

$18.4
4%
15.2%

$19.2
4%
15.2%

$20.1
4%
15.2%

$21.0
4%
15.2%

$21.9
4%
15.2%

$22.8
4%
15.2%

$23.8
4%
15.2%

$24.9
4%
15.2%

9.4

$0.5
$22.3
5%
9.8

$0.5
$23.5
5%
10.2

$0.6
$24.6
5%
10.6

$0.6
$25.9
5%
11.0

$0.6
$27.1
5%
11.4

$0.7
$28.5
5%
11.8

$0.7
$29.9
5%
12.2

$0.7
$31.4
5%
12.6

$0.8
$33.0
5%
13.0

$320
283
10
27
9
18

$600
502
18
80
27
53

$884
723
26
134
46
89

$1,192
975
36
181
62
120

$1,485
1,215
45
226
77
149

$1,802
1,474
54
274
93
181

$2,144
1,753
65
326
111
215

$2,466
2,016
75
375
127
247

$2,694
2,202
83
410
139
270

$2,912
2,380
90
443
151
292

234
34
530

290
61
802

328
86
1,104

345
112
1,413

310
134
1,679

326
157
1,950

342
181
2,227

299
201
2,451

157
213
2,526

132
223
2,568

8.4%

34%