Regression Analysis For Container Ships

Statistical Analysis and Determination of
Regression Formulas for

Main Dimensions of Container Ships
based on IHS Fairplay Data
Technical University of Denmark

Hans Otto Kristensen
Project no. 2010-56, Emissionsbeslutningsstttesystem

Work Package 2, Report no. 03
February 2013
Determination of Regression Formulas for Main Dimensions

of Container Ships based on IHS Fairplay Data
This report shows the results of the analysis of IHS Fairplay main data for container ships. All
possible outliers have been left out (obvious errors in data) as described in following document:
Data Analyses Standard Vessel Determination. Tankers, Bulk Carries and Container Vessels.
Project no. 2010-56. Work Package 2, Report no. 01. University of Southern Denmark. Author:
Marie Ltzen
Container ships have been categorized in following 3 groups:
1. Feeder ships (TEU < 2900)
2. Panamax ships (1900 < TEU < 5300)
3. Post Panamax ships (TEU > 4000)
The equations found by regression analysis are shown for each individual ship sub type. The
equations are basis for the generic ship design model for determination of main dimension and
propulsion characteristics for all types of container ships in the following called DTU and SDU
model.
As can be seen there is some overlap between the three sub categories. The Panamax ships have
a breadth limitation of 32.2 m, an operational draught limitation of 12.0 m and a max overall length
of 294.10, which define the upper limits of this group. The same is valid for Post Panamax ships
with respect to a lower limit, as all ships with a breadth more than 32.2 m are categorized as Post
Panamax ships.
In the coming years the Post Panamax group will be subdivided in two parts by the coming
Panama Canal limitations which will be valid from 2014, when the new Panama Canal is expected
to be opened. The new limitations on Panamax ships in the future will be as follows (Marine
Technology 2011): Length overall: 366.00 m, breadth: 49.00 m, draught: 15.24 m
List of Appendices
Appendix A - Small container ships
page 4
Appendix B Panamax container ships
page 6
Appendix C Post Panamax container ships
page 8
Appendix D Water plane area coefficient and draught change
page 10
390
350
54
310
Breadth (m)
Length pp (m)
46
270
230
All container ships

Yellow dots indicate DTU and SDU
default model values
190
150
38
30
All container ships

22
110
14
70
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2000
4000
Container capacity (TEU)
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Fig. 1 Length between pp as function of TEU
Fig. 2 Breadth as function of TEU
16
33
29
13
Draught (m)
Depth (m)
25
21
17
All container ships

13
10
All container ships

9
4
5
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Fig. 3 Depth as function of TEU
Fig. 4 Maximum draught as function of TEU
50000
140000
All container ships

40000
120000
Deadweight (t)
Lightweight (t)
100000
30000
20000
80000
60000
40000
All container ships

10000
20000
0
0
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Fig. 5 Lightweight as function of TEU
Fig. 6 Deadweight as function of TEU
12000
18
0.30
All container ships

All container ships

16
0.20
Dw/TEU t/m 3)
Lightweight/Lpp/B/D (t/m 3)
0.25
0.15
14
12
0.10
10
0.05
0.00
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Fig. 8 Deadweight/TEU as function of TEU
0.80
7.0
0.75
6.5
0.70
6.0
Lpp/Depl.vol1/3
Block coefficient
6000
Fig. 7 Lightweight coefficient as function of TEU
0.65
0.60
All container ships

0.55
4000
5.5
5.0
All container ships

4.5
4.0
0.50
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Fig. 9 Block coefficient as function of TEU
Fig. 10 Length displacement ratio as function of

TEU
Appendix A - Small container ships (< 2900 TEU)

Length pp
= 10.14 * TEU0.378
Breadth
= 2.9 * TEU0.3
Depth
= 0.767 * TEU0.394
Draught
= 0.827 * TEU0.336
Lightweight/Lpp/B/D
= 0.659 * TEU-0.23
Deadweight/TEU
= 13.65
230
34
0.378
y = 2.9x
R2 = 0.92
30
170
Breadth (m)
Length pp (m)
0.3
y = 10.14x
R2 = 0.95
200
140
26
22
IHS Fairplay data

110
IHS Fairplay data
DTU-SDU model
18
DTU-SDU model
Power (IHS Fairplay data)
Potens (IHS Fairplay data)
80
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
14
3000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Fig. A1 Length between pp as function of TEU
Fig. A2 Breadth as function of TEU
14
21
0.394
y = 0.767x
R2 = 0.87
0.336
y = 0.827x
R2 = 0.88
12
Draught (m)
Depth (m)
17
13
10
IHS Fairplay data
IHS Fairplay data
DTU-SDU model
DTU-SDU model
5
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Fig. A3 Depth as function of TEU
Fig. A4 Maximum draught as function of TEU
6.5
0.80
6.0
0.70
Lpp/Depl.vol1/3
Block coefficient
0.75
0.65
0.60
5.0
IHS Fairplay data
IHS Fairplay data
0.55
5.5
4.5
DTU-SDU model
DTU-SDU model
0.50
4.0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Fig. A5 Block coefficient as function of TEU
Fig. A6 Length displacement ratio as function of

TEU
20
0.30
18
0.25
Dw/TEU (t/TEU)
IHS Fairplay data
16
14
12
0.20
0.15
0.10
-0.23
y = 0.659x
R2 = 0.25
0.05
IHS Fairplay data
10
DTU-SDU model
DTU-SDU model
0.00
8
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Fig. A7 Deadweight/TEU as function of TEU
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Fig. A8 Lightweight coefficient as function of TEU
Appendix B Panamax container ships (1900 5300 TEU)

Length pp
= 2.494 * TEU0.555 (< = 3800 TEU)
Length pp
= 241.92 + (TEU 3800) * 0.037 (>3800 TEU)
Breadth
= 32.22 m
Depth
= 14.77 + 0.0013 * TEU
Draught
= 2.19 * TEU0.211 (<= 3300 TEU)
Draught
= 12.1 + (TEU 3300) * 0.00082 (> 3300 TEU)
Lightweight/Lpp/B/D
= 0.105
Deadweight/TEU
= 14.6 0.00038 * TEU
The regression formulas for the length and the draught have been split into two formulas
respectively, in order to obtain the best possible curve fit, for length and draught. These
adjustments were also carried out to obtain the best fitted values for the block coefficient and the
length displacement ratio, which are calculated indirectly on basis of all the regression formulas, for
the main dimensions and the weights.
300
32.4
y = -2E-07x + 32.22
R2 = 2E-05
x < 3800
y = 2.494x0.555
270
32.3
240
Breadth (m)
Length pp (m)
R = 0.83
210
IHS Fairplay data
IHS Fairplay data
32.1
DTU-SDU model
180
32.2
DTU-SDU model
Liner (IHS Fairplay data)
150
1800
2300
2800
3300
3800
4300
4800
32.0
1800
5300
2300
2800
3300
3800
4300
4800
Fig. B1 Length between pp as function of TEU
Fig. B2 Breadth as function of TEU
5300
24
14
y = 0.0013x + 14.77
2
R = 0.38
21
x < 3300
y = 2.19x0.211
13
Draught (m)
Depth (m)
R = 0.59
18
12
IHS Fairplay data

15
IHS Fairplay data
11
DTU-SDU model
DTU-SDU model

12
1800
2300
2800
3300
3800
4300
4800
10
1800
5300
2300
2800
3300
3800
4300
4800
5300
Fig. B3 Depth as function of TEU
Fig. B4 Maximum draught as function of TEU
7.0
0.80
0.75
6.5
Lpp/Depl.vol1/3
Block coefficient
0.70
0.65
0.60
6.0
5.5
IHS Fairplay data
IHS Fairplay data

DTU-SDU model
0.55
DTU-SDU model
5.0
0.50
1800
2300
2800
3300
3800
4300
4800
4.5
1800
5300
2300
2800
3300
3800
4300
4800
5300
Fig. B5 Block coefficient as function of TEU
Fig. B6 Length displacement ratio as function of

TEU
16
0.15
0.12
Dw/TEU (t/TEU)
y = - 0.00038x + 14.6
R2 = 0.06
0.09
0.06
0.03
14
12
IHS Fairplay data
y = 2E-06x + 0.0999
R2 = 0.005
DTU-SDU model
IHS Fairplay data
DTU-SDU model
0.00
1800
2300
2800
3300
3800
4300
4800
10
1800
5300
2300
2800
3300
3800
4300
4800
5300
Fig. B7 Lightweight coefficient as function of TEU
Fig, B8 Deadweight/TEU as function of TEU
Appendix C Post Panamax container ships (> 4000 TEU)

Length pp
= 131.31 + 0.03012 * TEU 0.00000099556 * TEU2 (<= 8000 TEU)
Length pp
= 14.66 * TEU0.339 (> 8000 TEU)
Breadth
= 32.51 + 0.0013 * TEU
Depth
= MIN(30.2,16.5 + 0.0011 * TEU)
Draught
= 12.73 + 0.0002 * TEU
Lightweight/Lpp/B/D
= MAX(0.09,0.104 0.00000115 * TEU)
Dw/TEU
= MAX(11.2;50.43 * TEU-0.16)
The regression formula for the length has been split into two formulas, in order to obtain the best
possible curve fit, for the length. This adjustment was also carried out to obtain the best fitted
values for the block coefficient and the length displacement ratio, which are calculated indirectly on
basis of all the regression formulas, for the main dimensions and the weights.
57
390
<= 8000 TEU
IHS Fairplay data
y = -0.00000099556x + 0.030116x + 131.31
54
DTU-SDU model
360
Statistical outliers
Linear (IHS Fairplay data)
>8000 TEU
330
Breadth (m)
Length pp (m)
51
0.339
y = 14.66x
R2 = 0.89
300
IHS Fairplay data
DTU-SDU model
Additional data (<8000 TEU)
Poly. (Additional data (<8000 TEU))
270
240
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
48
45
42
y = 0.0013x + 32.51
39
R = 0.82
36
4000
16000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Fig. C1 Length between pp as function of TEU
Fig. C2 Breadth as function of TEU
16000
17
32
y = 0.0002x + 12.73
R2 = 0.30
16
29
Draught (m)
Depth (m)
15
26
13
IHS Fairplay data

DTU-SDU model
23
20
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14
IHS Fairplay data

DTU-SDU model
12
14000
11
4000
16000
6000
Fig. C3 Depth as function of TEU
10000
12000
14000
16000
Fig. C4 Maximum draught as function of TEU
6.6
0.80
0.75
6.4
Lpp/Depl.vol1/3
0.70
Block coefficient
8000
0.65
0.60
6.2
6.0
IHS Fairplay data
DTU-SDU model
IHS Fairplay data

0.55
5.8
DTU-SDU model
0.50
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
5.6
4000
16000
6000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Fig. C5 Block coefficient as function of TEU
Fig. C6 Length displacement ratio as function of

TEU
15
0.12
0.10
IHS Fairplay data

DTU- SDU model
14
0.08
Dw/TEU (t/TEU)
8000
y = -0.00000115x + 0.104
0.06
R = 0.05
0.04
IHS Fairplay data
DTU-SDU model
0.02
13
-0.16
y = 50.43x
R2 = 0.29
12
11

0.00
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
10
4000
12000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Fig. C7 Lightweight coefficient as function of

TEU
Fig. C8 Deadweight/TEU as unction of TEU
Appendix D Water plane area coefficient and draught change

The water plane area coefficient, Cw, at maximum draught, for container ships is shown in Fig. D1
for ships in the IHS Fairplay data base.
Cw depends on the block coefficient, Cb, as follows:
Cw = 0.55 + 0.45 Cb
where Cw and Cb are calculated on basis of the length between pp.
0.95
Waterplane area coefficient (-)
Waterplane area coefficient
0.95
0.90
0.85
0.80
y = 0.45x + 0.55
0.75
0.55
Cb = 0,66
Cb = 0,61
Cb = 0,68
Cb = 0,65
Cb = 0,60
Cb = 0,64
Cb = 0,62
Cb = 0,65
0.90
0.85
0.80
0.75
0.70
0.65
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
50
60
Block coefficient
Fig. D1 Water plane area coefficient as function

of the block coefficient for container ships (IHS
Fairplay)
70
80
Relative displacement (%)
90
100
Fig. D2 Water plane area coefficient as

function the relative displacement
In Fig. D2 is shown the water plane area coefficient as function of the relative displacement for
some container ships, for which more detailed information has been available. Based on the
results in Fig. D2, the water plane area coefficient at a displacement
can be approximated as
follows:
(
It is important to know the how the water plane area coefficient depends on the displacement as it
is used to calculate the draught change due to change of the displacement.
Maximum/scantling draught and design draught
All data presented in this report are presented as function of the maximum deadweight.
Normally two draughts are specified for container ships, namely the design draught and the
scantling draught. The design draught is the draught at which the ship is expected to operate
normally, while the scantling draught is the maximum permissible draught according to the class
rules. Comparison of scantling draught data (Significant Ships, 1990 2010) with summer load line
draught data (denoted maximum draught in this report and in the IHS Fairplay data base) shows
10
that the summer load line draught is nearly identical with the scantling draught (Fig. D3). The
summer load line is the maximum permitted draught at which both stability and strength
requirements are fulfilled, i.e. it is maximum draught approved by the Maritime Authorities.
The design draught is less than the scantling draught, which is shown in Fig. D4 based on data for
255 container ships from Significant Ships (1990 2010). Regression formulas for determination of
the design draught as function of TEU have been developed as follows (see Fig. D5):
= MIN(12; 1.188 * TEU0.279)
for Panamax and feeder ships
Design draught
= 4.83 * TEU0.11
for Post Panamax ships
16
16
13
13
Draught (m)
Draught (m)
Design draught
10
10
Max. draught (IHS Fairplay)

7
Design draught (Significant Ships)
Scantling draught (Significant Ships)
Scantling draught (Significant Ships)
4
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
Fig. D3 Maximum draught for container ships

(IHS Fairplay) compared with scantling draught
according to Significant Ships (1990 2010)
Fig. D4 Design draught versus scantling

draught for container ships according to
Significant Ships (1990 2010)
16
16
0.279
y = 1.188x
2
R = 0.89
13
0.11
y = 4.83x
2
Draught (m)
Design draught (m)
13
R = 0.27
10
Panamax ships (Significant Ships)
10
Maximum draught (IHS Fairplay data)
Post Panamax ships (Significant Ships)
Design Draught (DTU-SDU model)
Potens (Panamax ships (Significant Ships))
Maximum draught (DTU-SDU model)
Potens (Post Panamax ships (Significant Ships))
4
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
Fig. D5 Design draught for container ships

according to Significant Ships (1990 2010)
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Fig. D6 Design and scantling draught according

to DTU-SDU model
11
For container ships, the design displacement is 85 % to 90 % of the maximum displacement which
means that Cw ~ 0.45 Cb + 0.55. The design deadweight can then be calculated according to this
approximate formula:
)
The resulting design deadweight is shown in Fig. D7, where it is compared with design deadweight
data from Significant Ships (1990 2010).
160000
150000
Maximum deadweight (t)
Design deadweight (m)
120000
90000
60000
30000
120000
80000
40000
DTU-SDU model
DTU-SDU model
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
3000
6000
9000
12000
Fig. D7 Design deadweight
Fig. D8 Maximum deadweight
12
15000

Regression Analysis For Container Ships

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Statistical Analysis and Determination of

Regression Formulas for

Technical University of Denmark

Project no. 2010-56, Emissionsbeslutningsstttesystem

Determination of Regression Formulas for Main Dimensions

Appendix B Panamax container ships

Appendix C Post Panamax container ships

Appendix D Water plane area coefficient and draught change

All container ships

All container ships

Container capacity (TEU)

Container capacity (TEU)

Fig. 1 Length between pp as function of TEU

Fig. 2 Breadth as function of TEU

All container ships

All container ships

Container capacity (TEU)

Container capacity (TEU)

Fig. 3 Depth as function of TEU

Fig. 4 Maximum draught as function of TEU

All container ships

All container ships

Container capacity (TEU)

Container capacity (TEU)

Fig. 5 Lightweight as function of TEU

Fig. 6 Deadweight as function of TEU

All container ships

All container ships

Container capacity (TEU)

Fig. 8 Deadweight/TEU as function of TEU

Container capacity (TEU)

Fig. 7 Lightweight coefficient as function of TEU

All container ships

All container ships

Container capacity (TEU)

Container capacity (TEU)

Fig. 9 Block coefficient as function of TEU

Fig. 10 Length displacement ratio as function of

Appendix A - Small container ships (< 2900 TEU)

IHS Fairplay data

IHS Fairplay data

Power (IHS Fairplay data)

Potens (IHS Fairplay data)

Container capacity (TEU)

Container capacity (TEU)

Fig. A1 Length between pp as function of TEU

Fig. A2 Breadth as function of TEU

IHS Fairplay data

IHS Fairplay data

Potens (IHS Fairplay data)

Container capacity (TEU)

Container capacity (TEU)

Fig. A3 Depth as function of TEU

Fig. A4 Maximum draught as function of TEU

IHS Fairplay data

Potens (IHS Fairplay data)

Potens (IHS Fairplay data)

Container capacity (TEU)

Container capacity (TEU)

Fig. A5 Block coefficient as function of TEU

Fig. A6 Length displacement ratio as function of

IHS Fairplay data

Potens (IHS Fairplay data)