Savills Báo Cáo Nghiên Cứu Thị Trường BĐS TP HCM Q1 -2014- VN

Thng co bo ch
Ngy 07/04/2014
BO CO KT QU NGHIN CU TH TRNG BT
NG SN TP. H CH MINH CA CNG TY SAVILLS VIT
NAM
Cty TNHH Savills Vit nam

Tng 18, Ta nh Fideco
81-85 Hm Nghi
Qun 1, TP.HCM
T: +84 8 3823 9205
savills.com.vn
Q1/2014
1. BN L
Ngun cung
2
Tng ngun cung bn l vo khong 850.000 m , tng mnh 8% so vi qu trc (QoQ) v 7% so
vi cng k nm trc (YoY) do s gia nhp ca 1 trung tm mua sm, 1 trung tm bch ha v 1
siu th.
Khu vc ngoi thnh chim th phn bn l ln nht vi 43% tng ngun cung, tip n l khu vc
ni thnh (36%) v khu vc trung tm (21%).
Ngun cung hin ti
Trung tm Khi
bn l
bn s
2%
6%
Trung tm
bch ha
15%
Trung tm
mua sm
47%
Ngun: Nghin cu & T vn Savills
Savills Vit Nam

Savills Vit Nam l cng ty t vn bt ng sn ln nht v nhiu kinh nghim nht vi vn phng ti H Ni v
TP.HCM. Cng ty cung cp cc dch v bt ng sn ton din nh: Kinh doanh Bt ng sn nh , Cho thu
Thng mi, Cho thu Bt ng sn nh , Nghin cu & T vn, nh gi & Nghin cu kh thi, Dch v Ngn
hng & Doanh nghip, T vn & Mi gii u t, T vn & Cho thu Mt bng bn l, Qun l Bt ng sn &
Ti sn, T vn & i din Khch thu, T vn & Cho thu Mt bng cng nghip, , Tip th & Cc dch v sng
to. Savills Vit Nam vinh hnh nhn Gii thng Bt ng sn Chu Thi Bnh Dng 2013 cho cc
hng mc: i l bt ng sn xut sc nht Vit Nam, Cng ty t vn bt ng sn xut sc nht Vit
Nam, i l cho thu bt ng sn xut sc nht Vit Nam , Website i l bt ng sn xut sc
nht v c vinh d trao gii i L Bt ng Sn xut sc nht Chu - Thi Bnh Dng trong
khun kh Gii Thng Bt ng Sn Quc t. Cng ty hin c hn 940 nhn vin chuyn nghip v giu kinh
nghim trn c nc.
Thng co bo ch
Siu th
30%
Tnh hnh th trng

Tnh hnh hot ng, Q1/2014
Gi thu trung bnh (LHS)

1,400,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
Trung tm bch
ha
VND/ m2 / thng
1,200,000
Cng sut thu (RHS)

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Trung tm mua Khi bn l
sm

2
Ghi ch: Gi thu trung bnh trn mi m ti tng trt ca cc ca hng c din tch bng hoc ln
2
hn 10 m , gm ph dch v, cha thu.
Tnh hnh hot ng ca th trng bn l kh quan hn trong qu ny vi c ng sut cho thu tng
trng tt, khong 4 im phn trm QoQ. Gi thu trung bnh gim nh khong -1% QoQ.
Cng sut thu trung bnh ca trung tm bch ha tng 6 im phn trm QoQ trong khi cng sut
thu ca trung tm mua sm tng 3 im phn trm QoQ; nguyn nhn chnh l do tnh hnh hot
ng tt ca cc d n mi.
Doanh thu bn l Tp. HCM trong Q1/ 2014 c t 152.000 t ng. Loi tr yu t lm pht,
doanh thu bn l tng khong 7,2% YoY, tng ng vi nm 2013.
Mc tng khng i ca doanh thu bn l ch ra rng sc mua khng ci thin. Phn khc bn l
trung cp c th s hot ng tt hn phn khc cao cp trong cc qu tip theo. Nhu cu v mt
bng bn l i vi cc loi hnh n v thc ung, siu th v mt s sn phm v dch v thit
yu c th vn mc cao.
Savills Vit Nam

TP.HCM. Cng ty cung cp cc dch v bt ng sn nh: Kinh doanh Bt ng sn nh , Cho thu Thng
mi, Cho thu Bt ng sn nh , Nghin cu & T vn, nh gi & Nghin cu kh thi, Dch v Ngn hng &
Doanh nghip, T vn & Mi gii u t, T vn & Cho thu Mt bng bn l, Qun l Bt ng sn & Ti sn,
T vn & i din Khch thu, T vn & Cho thu Mt bng cn g nghip, , Tip th & Cc dch v sng to.
Savills Vit Nam vinh hnh nhn Gii thng Bt ng sn Chu Thi Bnh Dng 2013 cho cc hng
mc: i l bt ng sn xut sc nht Vit Nam, Cng ty t vn bt ng sn xut sc nht Vit
Nam, i l cho thu bt ng sn xut sc nht, Website i l bt ng sn xut sc nht v
c vinh d trao gii i L Bt ng Sn xut sc nht Chu - Thi Bnh Dng trong khun kh
Gii Thng Bt ng Sn Quc t. Cng ty hin c hn 9 40 nhn vin chuyn nghip v giu kinh nghim
trn c nc.
Thng co bo ch
Ngun cu
Trin vng
2
T Q2/ 2014 tr i, khong 1,3 triu m din tch bn l mi s gia nhp th trng. Tuy nhin,
khong 70% s d n ny cha c thi gian hon thnh d kin c th.
Qun 1, 2 v 7 chim din tch bn l tng lai ln nht trong tt c cc qun, khong 63% tng
ngun cung tng lai.
Ngun cung tng lai c tnh, 2014 tr i
D n (RHS)
50
900,000
45
800,000
40
700,000
35
600,000
30
500,000
25
400,000
20
300,000
15
200,000
10
100,000
S d n
m2
Din tch bn l (LHS)

1,000,000
2014t
2015t
Tim nng
2. VN PHNG
Ngun cung
Tnh ti Q1/2014, Tp.HCM c 217 d n vi hn 1,4 triu m . Tng ngun cung tng 1% so vi qu
trc v 5% so vi cng k nm trc.
Savills Vit Nam

trn c nc.
Thng co bo ch
2
Trong Q1/2014, hai ta nh hng C vi khong 9.200 m gia nhp th trng. Cc ta nh ny ta
lc ti qu n 2 v Bnh Thnh.
Tnh hnh hot ng

Tnh hnh hot ng th trng
Cng sut thu
700,000
Gi thu
80
500,000
400,000
60
300,000
40
200,000
VND/ m2/ thng
600,000
100
20
100,000
-
Q1/2013
Q2/2013
Q3/2013
Q4/2013
Q1/2014
Cng sut v gi thu trung bnh c xu hng t ng k t Q2/2013. Trong Q1/2014, cng sut trung
bnh t 90%, cng sut cao nht trong 5 nm gn y, tng 1 im phn trm theo qu v 3 im
phn trm theo nm.
2
Gi thu trung bnh ca th trng l 531.000VN/ m , tng 2% theo qu v 3% theo nm.
Savills Vit Nam

trn c nc.
Thng co bo ch
Tnh hnh hot ng theo hng
Ngun cung
Cng sut thu
800,000
95
85
400,000
m2
600,000
75
200,000
-
65
Hng A
Hng B
Hng C
Ghi ch: Gi thu trung bnh c tnh trn Din tch sn thun, bao gm ph dch v nhng khng
bao gm VAT.
Trong Q1/2014, c 3 hng hot ng tt nht trong 5 qu gn y. Trong , hng A hot ng tt
nht vi cng sut trun g bnh 92%.
Gi thu trung bnh ca hng A v B tip tc tng. Trong 5 qu gn y, gi thu trung bnh ca
hng A tng n nh 1%/ qu v hng B l 1,5%.
Ngun cu
2
Trong Q1/2014, lng tiu th vn phng l khong 26.700 m , tng 48% theo qu. Nhu cu cho
cc ta nh ti khu trung tm cao. Trong Q1/2014, tng lng tiu th ti khu trung tm nhiu hn
khu ngoi trung tm 34%.
Trin vng
2
Trong 3 nm ti, th trng vn phng Tp.HCM s cho n hn 385.000 m t 30 d n. Trong
qu ti, 2 d n hng B ti qun 1 d kin tham gia vo t h trng. Cc d n ny s cung cp cho
2
th trng hn 40.000m .
Savills Vit Nam

trn c nc.
Thng co bo ch
Theo nghin cu gn y ca Savills, cc cng ty nc ngoi chim khong 60% tng din tch
c thu ti Tp.HCM. Dng FDI vo Tp .HCM tng trong cc thng u ca nm 2014 cho thy
nhu cu vn phng t khu vc nc ngoi cao.
Ngun cung tng lai, 20142016
S d n
20
150,000
15
100,000
10
50,000
D n
m2
Ngun cung tng lai

200,000
0
2014t
2015t
2016t
3. KHCH SN
Ngun cung
Trong Q1/2014, th trng khng c khch sn 3 n 5 sao mi. Tp.HCM c 92 khch sn 3 n 5
sao vi hn 12.600 phng, khng i so vi qu trc v tng 7% so vi cng k nm trc.
Tnh hnh hot ng
Savills Vit Nam

trn c nc.
Thng co bo ch
Tnh hnh hot ng, Q1/2014
Phng (LHS)
Cng sut thu phng (RHS)
5,000
100
90
4,000
80
3,000
70
2,000
S lng phng
6,000
60
1,000
-
50
5 sao
4 sao
3 sao
Ngun: Nghin cu v T vn Savills

Cng sut thu trung bnh t 74%, tng 2 im phn trm theo qu nhng gim nh -1 im phn
trm theo nm ch yu do ngun cung tng mnh sut nm 2013 . Gi phng trung bnh l
1.851.000VN/ phng/ m, khng i theo qu nhng tng 3% theo nm.
Phn khc 4 sao hot ng tt nht vi cng sut 81%, tng 9 im phn trm theo qu. Phn
khc 3 v 5 sao hot ng n nh theo qu vi cng sut 75% cho 3 sao v 70% cho 5 sao.
RevPAR, Q1/2013 Q1/2014
2,000,000
5 sao
1,500,000
4 sao
1,000,000
3 sao
500,000
Q1/2013
Q2/2013
Q3/2013
Q4/2013
Q1/2014

Savills Vit Nam
trn c nc.
Thng co bo ch
VN/ phng/ m
2,500,000
Trong Q1/ 2014, RevPAR ca phn khc 3 n 5 sao tng 3% theo qu do RevPAR ca 4 sao tng
18% v ca 3 sao tng nh 1%. Trong khi , RevPAR ca 5 sao gim nh -1%.
Cc khch sn ti khu trung tm hot ng tt hn khu ngoi trung tm. Cng sut thu trung bnh
ca khu trung tm l 76%, tng 1 im phn trm theo qu v cao hn khu vc ngoi trung tm 1
im phn trm.
Ngun cu
Trong Q1/2014, du khch quc t n Tp.HCM l khong 1.246.000 lt, tng mnh 19% so vi
cng k nm trc v l tc tng trng cao nht trong 4 nm gn y.
Du khch t Chu u v Chu n Vit Nam tng trng n tng. Du khch t Hong Kong
tng 226%, t c tng 149%, Nga 55% v Trung Quc 49%.
Trin vng
Trong 3 nm ti, 10 d n vi khong 1.900 phng d kin tham gia vo th trng.
Trong Q2/2014, th trng s ch c 1 khch sn 3 sao mi ti qun 7, cung cp hn 100 phng.
Trin vng, 2014 - 2016
Phng (LHS)
D n (RHS)
800
600
2
400
S lng phng
1,000
200
2014E
2015E
2016E
Savills Vit Nam

trn c nc.
Thng co bo ch
S lng d n
1,200
4. CN H DCH V
Ngun cung
Trong Q1/2014, c 4 d n mi, cung cp thm 95 cn h v 10 cn h ca mt d n hin ti vo
th trng. Tng ngun cung hin ti ca th trng t hn 4.000 cn h t 74 d n, tng 3% so
vi qu trc v tng 6% so vi cng k nm ngoi.
S cn
Ngun cung hin ti, Q1/2014
2,400
2,100
1,800
1,500
1,200
900
600
300
0
Hng A
Hng B
Hng C
Tnh hnh hot ng

Cng sut cho thu trung bnh ca th trng l 82%, tng 2 im phn trm theo qu v 4 im
phn trm theo nm.
Savills Vit Nam

trn c nc.
Thng co bo ch
Tnh hnh hot ng th trng, Q1/2014
Gi thu trung bnh
Cng sut cho thu
700,000
100
80
500,000
400,000
60
300,000
40
VN/m2/thng
600,000
200,000
20
100,000
-
0
Hng A
Hng B
Hng C
Ghi ch: Gi thu trung bnh tnh trn din tch thun bao gm ph dch v, khng bao gm VAT.
Cng sut cho thu trung bnh ca Hng A l 91%, khng thay i so vi qu trc. Trong khi ,
th hng B c cng sut cho thu trung bnh duy tr n nh mc 80% v cng sut cho thu trung
bnh ca Hng C tng 4 im phn trm, t 80%.
2
Gi thu trung bnh mc 500.000 VN/ m / thng, hu nh khng i k t Q1/2013. Loi cn h

2
2
2 phng ng vi din tch ph bin t 80 m n 120 m c gi thu trung bnh khong 39.000.000
VN/ cn/ thng.
Khch thu a thch cc d n cn h dch v ti khu vc trung tm. Cng sut cho thu trung bnh
ca khu vc ny t 88%, duy tr n nh so vi qu trc v cao hn so vi khu vc ngoi trung
tm 14 im phn trm.
Ngun cu
Cn h cho thu l i th cnh tranh chnh ca cn h dch v cho mc ch lu tr di h n. Cn

h cho thu c cng v tr v loi hnh cn h nhng thng c gi thu thp hn cn h dch v t
20% n 40%. Tuy nhin, cn h dch v, nht l hng A v B vn l la chn a thch cho cc
chuyn gia c thu nhp cao.
Savills Vit Nam

trn c nc.
Thng co bo ch
Nhu cu thu cn h dch v t cc chuyn gia Chu cao. Trong Q1/2014, 41 d n FDI Vit
Nam n t cc quc gia chu nh Nht Bn, Singapore, Hn Quc, Hng Kng v Thi Lan;
chim 58% tng d n v 68% tng vn FDI ng k mi ti thnh ph H Ch Minh.
Trin vng
Tnh n Q1/2014, th trng cn h dch v d kin c 21 d n tng lai cung cp hn 3.400
cn.
Trong Q2/2014, hai d n hng C vi khong 64 cn d kin gia nhp th trng.
c tnh ngun cung tng lai
S cn trong tng lai
S d n
1,800
10
1,600
8
1,400
1,000
800
600
400
S d n
S cn
1,200
200
0
2014 t
2015t
2016t
Tim nng
5. CN H BN
Ngun cung
Tnh n Q1/2014, th trng s cp c khong hn 15.500 cn, tng 1.5 % theo qu nhng gim
nh 1.8% theo nm.
Ngun cung s cp, Q1/2014
Savills Vit Nam

trn c nc.
Thng co bo ch
Trong Q1/2014, tm d n mi v cc giai on mi ca 4 d n hin hu cho bn, thm 2.800

cn vo th trng, con s c tung bn mi trong mt qu cao nht k t Q2/2011.
Ngun cung s cp (LHS)
Th phn (RHS)
4,000
28
3,500
24
3,000
20
16
2,000
12
1,500
Khc
Tn Bnh
Qun 12
Tn Ph
Qun 8
G Vp
0
Bnh Chnh
Th c
4
Qun 2
500
Bnh Tn
Qun 7
1,000
S cn
2,500
Tnh hnh th trng

Tnh hnh th trng, Q1/2014
T l hp th (RHS)
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
40
30
20
10
Hng A
Hng B
Triu VN \ m2
50
Hng C

T l hp th n nh mc hn 10% trong ba qu lin tip. Trong Q1/2014, t l hp th l 10.2%,
gim nh 0.6 im phn trm theo qu nhng tng 3 im phn t rm theo nm.
Savills Vit Nam

trn c nc.
Thng co bo ch
Gi trung bnh (LHS)
C khong 1.600 cn c giao dch trong qu ny, gim nh 4% theo qu nhng tng ng k
39% theo nm. y l con s cao nht c v s lng giao dch v tng trng theo nm ca qu
u nm trong vng 3 nm tr li y. Cc d n hng C chi m 70% s lng giao dch.
Qun 2 v qun 7 chim khong 40% tng s lng cn c giao dch. Th c, G Vp, Tn
Ph v Bnh Tn cng c tnh hnh bn tt; bn qun ny chim 36% tng s lng giao dch.
Ngun cu
Do li sut huy ng gim trong thi gian va qua, khong cch gia li sut v t l li nhun thu
nh gim; vic mua cn h vi mc ch cho thu nay tr thnh la chn u t hp dn.
Nhng d n c tin xy dng tt hoc c pht trin bi cc ch u t c danh ting
nhn c nhiu s quan tm t ngi mua. Phng n thanh ton linh hot, c bit cc d
n gn hon thnh cng gp phn hp dn ngi mua v tng thanh khon ca th trng.
Trin vng
Khong 57.600 cn t 92 d n c d kin hon thnh trong giai on 2015 n 2017.
Khong 19% trong tng lng cung sp ti d kin hon thin trong nm 2015. 81% cn li d
kin s hon thnh t 2016 tr i.
Trong 2 qu ti, ngun cung ca Tp.HCM d kin c thm hn 1.700 cn h.
Ngun cung tng lai c tnh, 2015 2017
S d n
70
50,000
60
50
40,000
40
30,000
30
20,000
20
10,000
10
0
2015
2016
2017
Tim nng
Savills Vit Nam

trn c nc.
Thng co bo ch
60,000
S d n
S cn h
S cn h
6. BIT TH/NH LIN K

Ngun cung
Mt d n bit th/ nh lin k ti qun 9 mi gia nhp th trng trong qu ny. Tng ngun cung
s cp t khong 260 cn, tng 6% so vi qu trc (QoQ), nhng gim -10% so vi cng k
nm trc (YoY).
Trong phn khc t nn, 2 d n t nn ti qun 8 gia nhp th trng trong qu ny, cung cp
thm 300 nn. Tng ngun cung th trng s cp vo khong 1,230 nn, tng 9% QoQ v tng
mnh 135% YoY.
Qun 9 l qun c ngun cung bit th/ nh lin k ln nht, trong k hi qun 8 ng gp ngun
cung ln nht trong phn khc t nn.
Ngun cung s cp
S nh lin k
S bit th
80
Cn
60
40
20
Qun 7 Th c Qun 2 Bnh Tn Nh B
Qun 9
Qun 8
Ngun: Nghin cu & Tvn Savills
Th trng bit th/ nh lin k hot ng kh trm lng trong qu ny. Ngun cung hn ch trong
phn khc hp cng vi tnh hnh mua bn thng ch m trong khong thi gian u nm l
nguyn nhn chnh dn n tnh trng trm lng ca th trng. Lng giao dch bit th/ nh lin
k gim -20% v t l hp th gim -4 im phn trm so vi qu trc. Trong , hn 80% lng
giao dch n t d n va gia nhp th trng.
Savills Vit Nam

trn c nc.
Thng co bo ch
Tnh hnh hot ng
Ngc li, lng giao dch ca phn khc t nn tng mnh 31% QoQ v 322% YoY. D n mi
ti qun 8 hot ng kh quan nht, chim khong 35% tng lng giao dch.
Ngun cu
Cc d n vi cc tin ch ni khu hon chnh, v tr tt, gi bn ph hp, v ch u t c uy tn
vn hp dn c ngi mua.
Phn khc t nn hot ng tt ch ra xu hng mua t nn v t thi cng nhm c c s
kim sot cht lng xy dng tt hn ng thi gim chi ph thi cng.
Trin vng
Ngun cung tng lai c d on vo khong 53.500 cn n t 137 d n trong vng 8 nm
ti.
Khong 1.180 cn t 9 d n c th s gia nhp th trng trong nm 2014.
Ngun cung tng lai c tnh
35
1,400
30
1,200
25
20
800
600
400
D n
1,000
ha
S d n
15
10
200
Savills Vit Nam

trn c nc.
Thng co bo ch
Tng din tch

1,600
Ti liu ny c Cng ty Savills thc hin ch cung cp thng tin. Chng ti cn thn v cn nhc khi
thc hin ti liu ny. Ni dung c th s thay i v nhng iu ny khng l hoc l mt phn ca th cho
hoc hp ng. Cc bn quan tm s dng ti liu ny khng nn tin cy han tan nhng nhn nh c ng nh
cc trnh by trong bn ti liu ny m phi t mnh kim chng tnh chnh xc. Khng mt nhn vin no ca
Savills c quyn trnh by hay m bo bt k iu g c lin quan n nhng iu ny v Savills khng chu
trch nhim php l v bt k vic g hay bt k tn tht no pht sinh t ni dung ca ti liu ny. Bn bo co
ny khng c quyn sao chp li ton b hay mt phn di mi hnh thc nu khng c s ng bng
vn bn ca Savills. Cng ty TNHH Savills Vietnam.200 9
-Ht-
Nu c thc mc hay cu hi, xin vui lng lin h:

V Ngc Tho
Ph trch Truyn thng min Nam
Cng ty TNHH Savills Vit Nam
inh Hng Linh

Ph trch Truyn thng min Bc
T:+84 8 3823 9205 Ext:153

F:+84 8 3823 4571
E:nvan@savills.com.vn
T:+84 8 3823 9205 Ext:112

F:+84 8 3823 4571
E:vngocthao@savills.com.vn
T:+84 4 3946 1300 Ext:112

F:+84 4 3946 1302
E:dhuonglinh@savills.com.vn
Savills Vit Nam

trn c nc.
Thng co bo ch
Nguyn Phm Khnh Vn

Gim c Tip th & Truyn thng

Savills Báo Cáo Nghiên Cứu Thị Trường BĐS TP HCM Q1 -2014- VN

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Savills Báo Cáo Nghiên Cứu Thị Trường BĐS TP HCM Q1 -2014- VN

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Thng co bo ch

Cty TNHH Savills Vit nam

Savills Vit Nam

Tnh hnh th trng

Gi thu trung bnh (LHS)

Cng sut thu (RHS)

Ngun: Nghin cu & T vn Savills

Savills Vit Nam

Din tch bn l (LHS)

Ngun: Nghin cu & T vn Savills

Savills Vit Nam

Tnh hnh hot ng

Cng sut thu

VND/ m2/ thng

Ngun: Nghin cu & T vn Savills

Gi thu trung bnh ca th trng l 531.000VN/ m , tng 2% theo qu v 3% theo nm.

Savills Vit Nam

Tnh hnh hot ng theo hng

Cng sut thu

Ngun: Nghin cu & T vn Savills

Savills Vit Nam

Ngun cung tng lai, 20142016

Ngun cung tng lai

Ngun: Nghin cu & T vn Savills

Savills Vit Nam

Tnh hnh hot ng, Q1/2014

Cng sut thu phng (RHS)

Ngun: Nghin cu v T vn Savills

Ngun: Nghin cu v T vn Savills

Ngun: Nghin cu v T vn Savills

Savills Vit Nam

Ngun cung hin ti, Q1/2014

Ngun: Nghin cu & T vn Savills

Tnh hnh hot ng

Savills Vit Nam

Tnh hnh hot ng th trng, Q1/2014

Gi thu trung bnh

Cng sut cho thu

Ngun: Nghin cu & T vn Savills

Gi thu trung bnh mc 500.000 VN/ m / thng, hu nh khng i k t Q1/2013. Loi cn h

Cn h cho thu l i th cnh tranh chnh ca cn h dch v cho mc ch lu tr di h n. Cn

Savills Vit Nam

S cn trong tng lai

Ngun: Nghin cu & T vn Savills

Savills Vit Nam

Trong Q1/2014, tm d n mi v cc giai on mi ca 4 d n hin hu cho bn, thm 2.800

Ngun cung s cp (LHS)

Ngun: Nghin cu & T vn Savills

Tnh hnh th trng

Ngun: Nghin cu & T vn Savills

Savills Vit Nam

Gi trung bnh (LHS)

Ngun: Nghin cu & T vn Savills

Savills Vit Nam

6. BIT TH/NH LIN K

Ngun: Nghin cu & Tvn Savills

Savills Vit Nam

Tnh hnh hot ng

Ngun: Nghin cu & T vn Savills

Savills Vit Nam

Tng din tch

Nu c thc mc hay cu hi, xin vui lng lin h:

inh Hng Linh