Ezell 1

Will Ezell
Professor Kiker
Pre-AP Pre-Calculus
September 7, 2014
Legacy of Debt
Blessed are the young for they shall inherit the national debt (Herbert Hoover). With a
record high national debt of $17.7 trillion dollars and rising, the United States has placed a heavy
burden on this generation and generations to come (U.S. National Debt Clock). In the last
decade, Americans have added more than twelve trillion dollars to the national debt (U.S.
National Debt). These unsettling numbers mean that each citizens share of the national debt is
$55,610.00 (U.S. National Debt Clock). The federal debt is impacting every citizen including the
youth in our country. A large percentage of youth remain unemployed in this country, and this
unemployment adds to the escalating debt (Stanek). Unemployed youth lack work experience
which will pose problems in the future (Stanek). Moreover, unemployment results in increased
student debt and lack of necessary tax dollars to the federal government. (Stanek). The
accumulation of these factors and the alarming $55,610.00 head-start in the red guarantee the
perpetual debt crisis for future generations.

Ezell 2

Amount of United States Federal Debt Per Year

20000000000000

f(x)=

18000000000000
r 2=.996
Quartic amount
of US Debt

Power (Quartic amount of US Debt)

16000000000000

Amount of United States Federal Debt (Since 1998)

14000000000000

12000000000000
Polynomial (Quartic amount of US Debt)

Power (Quartic amount of US Debt)

10000000000000
8000000000000
6000000000000
Polynomial (Quartic amount of US Debt)
4000000000000
2000000000000

Fig 1

Number of Years (Since 1998)

0
0

10

12

14

16

Source: Historical Debt Outstanding Annual. TreasuryDirect. 29 Apr. 2014. Web. 8

Sept. 2014 and U.S. National Debt Clock. U.S. Treasury. n.d. Web. 6 Sept. 2014.
As set forth in the figure 1, the regression equation is modeled at the top of the graph
represented by f(x). The regression equation that best fits the data collected was the quartic
parent function which is represented by the equation above. The reason that this equation was
chosen was because the trend line for the quartic function fit the graph better than the other
functions such as the quadratic or cubic function. In figure 1, the line runs though nearly every
data point on the graph. The function can also be seen as a good fit due to the

18

Ezell 3
2

r value which equals .996 . This value is extremely high considering that the highest and most

accurate value for

can be one. Therefore, the higher the

value, the more accurate the function

will correlate with the data points gathered. The slope of the trend line in figure 1 correlates with my data
points in that as the slope increases, so does the federal debt. This makes sense because the trend line is
increasing which means the slope would be increasing with the trend line. The point that represents the yaxis, is the first data point on the graph at x=0. This relates to the data points in that the y-intercept is
where the origin of the data is begun.

After gathering the data for the federal debt that has occurred through the current year,
2014, I estimated the federal debt for the next three years by substituting in the year to my
equation for the figure above. By substituting the year in for the x-value of the equation, I was
able to predict what the next three years would look like. In 2015, the federal debt would stay
almost the same but decrease slightly to 1.76E13. In 2016, the federal debt would decrease to
1.70E13, and in 2017 the federal debt would decrease even more dramatically to 1.57E13. The
explanation for the data variance from the figure above is that the prediction is simply
estimation. Another reason for the decreasing value of the debt is that there are two negative

values in the function, the

x 4the x 2 values of the function. This factor could attribute to the

decreasing debt in my prediction.

The government and its leaders, financial institutions, businesses, and individuals benefit
from understanding the national debt and its rapid increase over the past years. By studying the
relationship between debt over time, government entities can determine if policies like tax
incentives will be effective to create economic growth. Businesses can utilize the analysis to

Ezell 4

make fiscal decisions based on future sales potential, and stock analysts can use the information
to predict stock prices. Individuals can also use the results of this analysis to make important
spending and saving decisions.
The subject of national debt is a prevalent topic in our world today. As President Obama
reminds Americans, For the last decade, we have spent more money than we take in (U.S.
National Debt). This overspending has had an adverse effect on our employment, economy,
infrastructure, and national security (Fiscal Outlook). Since our debt has been growing faster
than our economy in recent years, Americas youth have many obstacles to overcome (Fiscal
Outlook). Faced with increasing interest rates, unemployment, national security issues, and
personal debt, Americas youth take on the burden of the mistakes of earlier generations (Fiscal
Outlook). The time is here for America to take ownership of the debt problem and become
fiscally responsible. If policy changes are not made soon, another generation may bear the
burden of the escalating debt and financial crisis.

Ezell 5

Will Ezell
Professor Kiker
Pre-AP Pre-Calculus
September 7, 2014
Work Cited
Fiscal Outlook: Understanding the Federal Debt. U.S. Government Accountability Office. n.d.
Web. 6 Sept. 2014.
National Debt Outstanding Annual. Treasury Direct. 29 Apr. 2014. Web. 7 Sept. 2014.
Stanek, Becca. Unemployed and In Debt: Young Americans Ask Congress for Help. Time. 26
June 2014. Web. 7 Sept. 2014.
U.S. National Debt. The White House. 16 July 2011. Web. 6 Sept. 2014.
U.S. National Debt Clock. U.S. Treasury. n.d. Web. 6 Sept. 2014.