Hopeoverexperience

BYMUNIRAKRAM|3/20/201612:00:00AM
THElaunchoftheQuadrilateralCoordinationGroup(comprisingAfghanistan,China,Pakistanandthe
US)isthelatestattemptbyoutsiderstopacifyAfghanistan.Likeasecondmarriage,itrepresentsthe
triumphofhopeoverexperience.
AlexandertheGreat`sarmieslanguishedinKhorasanforadecade.TheBritishEmpirefailedinthree
warstocontroltheAfghans.TheSovietUnionwithdrewignominiouslyafterninebloodyyears.
And,AfghanistanhasbeenAmerica`slongestwar.
TheQCG,despiteitsinfelicitousname,wasacleverdeviceconjuredbyPakistantoconcentratethe
capabilitiesofthefourmembersanddistributetheresponsibilitytoachieveAfghanreconciliation.
TheexclusionofIranandRussia,bothofwhichhaveinfluenceoverAfghanevents,mayhavetobe
rectifiedifthemechanismbecomesoperational.
ItappearsthateveryonewantsanegotiatedpeaceinAfghanistan,excepttheAfghansthemselves.The
Ghanigovernmentcameintotheprocesswithdoubtsandconditions.TheAfghanTalibanhavenow
refusedtoreturntothetable.Mererepetitionofthemantraofan`AfghanledandAfghanowned`peace
processwillnotbringitanyclosertorealisation.
The`unitygovernment`inKabulisanythingbutunitedinitscommitmenttothenegotiatingprocess.
Thereareknownpowerbrokerswhohaveintroducedunrealisticpreconditionsanddeadlinesforprogress
inthepeaceprocess.Theyremainaverseto`sharing`powerwiththeTaliban.TheyresentPakistan`s
influenceoverAfghanevents.Theyseemtobelievethatifthetalksfail,andinsurgencyescalates,their
foreignpatronswillnotabandonthem.
TheyexpecttoretaincontroloftheirownethnicregionsandKabul.
Fortheirpart,theTalibanhavebeenconsistentintheirrefusaltotalktotheKabulgovernmentwhich
theyconsideraUSpuppet.TheywanttotalkdirectlywiththeAmericans.Thequadrilateralmechanism
soughttosquarethecircle.ButthepresentisabadtimetoexpecttheTalibantojoinadialogueprocess.
MullahMansourhasyettoconsolidatehisleadership.Mostofhiscommanders,includingthose
challenginghissuccessiontoMullahOmar`smantle,believetheyarewinningthemilitarystruggle
againstAfghansecurityforces.
SeveraldistrictsfelltotheTalibanevenbeforetheirsummeroffensive.MullahMansournodoubtfears
aninternalrevoltifheagreestotalkswhichcanarresttheTaliban`smomentum.
ItisunclearwhyadviserSartajAzizwassoconfidentinpubliclyassertingthatIslamabadcould
convincetheTalibantojointhetalks.
Intheendeavourtoproveitssinceritytothemajorpowers,Pakistanseemstohavecreatedtheworstof
bothworldsforitself.AsSartajAzizdeclared,PakistangatheredsomeTalibanleaderstopersuadethem
toreturntothenegotiatingtable.
ThispublicrevelationhasenabledPakistan`sdetractorstovalidatetheirlongstandingallegationthatthe

TalibanarePakistan`sproxies.DuringrecentSecurityCouncildiscussions,theAfghanambassadorsaid
thatSartajAziz`sstatement`speaksvolumesforPakistan`sinfluencewiththeTaliban`.
Experienceshouldhaveadvisedagainstsuchboldassertions.Evenattheheightofitscloserelationship
withMullahOmar`sregime,preandimmediatelyafter9/11,PakistanwasunabletoconvincetheTaliban
tosurrenderorexpelOsamabinLaden.
IslamabadwasunableeventopersuadeMullahOmarnottodestroytheBamiyanBuddhas.Today,aftera
decadeofcooperationwiththeUSledwarinAfghanistan,PakistancanhardlyexpecttheTalibanto
acceptitsdemandtotakeacourseofactiontheyconsidercontrarytotheirmilitaryorstrategic
objectives.
ThethreattoexpeltheTalibanleadershipfromPakistan`sterritoryiftheydonotheeditsdemandtojoin
thetalks,couldtransformatacticalerrorintoastrategicblunder.Thisisanemptythreat.TheTaliban
nowcontrolvastterritorieswithinAfghanistanandnolongerneedthe`refuge`someoftheirleaders
soughtinPakistanaftertheUSmilitaryintervention.IfPakistancarriesoutitsthreat,itwilllosewhatever
influenceitstillhaswiththeTalibanandgratuitouslyaddtothelistofitsenemiesinAfghanistan.There
areotherneighbours,includingIran,whichwouldbehappytoenlargetheirpresentandfutureinfluence
withinAfghanistan.
Clearly,Pakistan`sAfghanpoliciesshouldbetarystruggleagainstAfghansecurityforces.
SeveraldistrictsfelltotheTalibanevenbeforetheirsummeroffensive.MullahMansournodoubtfears
aninternalrevoltifheagreestotalkswhichcanarresttheTaliban`smomentum.
ItisunclearwhyadviserSartajAzizwassoconfidentinpubliclyassertingthatIslamabadcould
convincetheTalibantojointhetalks.
Intheendeavourtoproveitssinceritytothemajorpowers,Pakistanseemstohavecreatedtheworstof
bothworldsforitself.AsSartajAzizdeclared,PakistangatheredsomeTalibanleaderstopersuadethem
toreturntothenegotiatingtable.
ThispublicrevelationhasenabledPakistan`sdetractorstovalidatetheirlongstandingallegationthatthe
TalibanarePakistan`sproxies.DuringrecentSecurityCouncildiscussions,theAfghanambassadorsaid
thatSartajAziz`sstatement`speaksvolumesforPakistan`sinfluencewiththeTaliban`.
Experienceshouldhaveadvisedagainstsuchboldassertions.Evenattheheightofitscloserelationship
withMullahOmar`sregime,preandimmediatelyafter9/11,PakistanwasunabletoconvincetheTaliban
tosurrenderorexpelOsamabinLaden.
IslamabadwasunableeventopersuadeMullahOmarnottodestroytheBamiyanBuddhas.Today,aftera
decadeofcooperationwiththeUSledwarinAfghanistan,PakistancanhardlyexpecttheTalibanto
acceptitsdemandtotakeacourseofactiontheyconsidercontrarytotheirmilitaryorstrategic
objectives.
ThethreattoexpeltheTalibanleadershipfromPakistan`sterritoryiftheydonotheeditsdemandtojoin
thetalks,couldtransformatacticalerrorintoastrategicblunder.Thisisanemptythreat.TheTaliban
nowcontrolvastterritorieswithinAfghanistanandnolongerneedthe`refuge`someoftheirleaders
soughtinPakistanaftertheUSmilitaryintervention.IfPakistancarriesoutitsthreat,itwilllosewhatever
influenceitstillhaswiththeTalibanandgratuitouslyaddtothelistofitsenemiesinAfghanistan.There

areotherneighbours,includingIran,whichwouldbehappytoenlargetheirpresentandfutureinfluence
withinAfghanistan.
Clearly,Pakistan`sAfghanpoliciesshouldbeguidedbyitsownnationalinterest.Preservingthegoodwill
ofthemajorpowers,particularlyChina,isessential.ButPakistan`sprimaryobjectiveshouldbeto
eliminatetheTTP`s`safehavens`inAfghanistanandshutdownthe`westernfront`whichIndian
agenciesincollaborationwithknownelementsinKabulhaveopenedagainstPakistan.Itissurprising
thatIslamabadhasnotimposedatighterconnectionbetweenitshelpinAfghanreconciliationwithaction
byKabulanditsWesternpatronsagainstTTPanditscrossborderattacksagainstPakistan.Equally,
PakistancanandshouldstronglydemandthattheAfghanTalibanbreakalllinkswithTTP.
Pakistan`scalibratedpolicymustalsoanticipatethelikelydenouementofeventsinAfghanistan.
WhiletheefforttopromoteAfghanreconciliationispropelledbyhope,experienceindicatesthat,atleast
inthenearterm,thisendeavourisunlikelytobesuccessful.Kabul`ssecuritychallengesareformidable
andoncetheTalibanlaunchtheirsummeroffensivethesurvivaloftheregimecouldbeinquestion.As
theUNsecretarygeneral`sspecialrepresentativestatedintheSecurityCouncil,forKabul`survivalin
2016`wouldbeanachievement.
UnlessanincomingRepublicanUSpresident,oramuscularHillaryClinton,decidestolaunchanother
militarysurgeinAfghanistan,ratherthanwithdrawtheremainingforeignforces,theinsurgencywill
gatherforce.TheTalibanmaynotbeabletoconquerKabul,especiallyifrumpforeignforcesremain,but
theyarelikelytogainfullcontrolovertheeastandsouthofAfghanistan.Asinthe1990s,beforethe
adventofMullahOmar`sTaliban,thecountrymayonceagainbecarvedupintorivalfiefdoms.
Pakistan`sprioritythen,asnow,willbetoinsulateitselffromtheAfghanchaosandeliminatetheTTPor
atleasthaltitscrossborderattacksagainstPakistan.Todoso,Pakistanwillneedfriendsespeciallyin
areasadjacenttoitsborders.Itisnotdifficulttoidentifywhoislikelytocontroltheseadjacentareasand
ensurethatPakistanenjoysafriendlyrelationshipwiththem.Unfortunately,inAfghanistan,thelessons
ofhistoryareseldomlearntthus,ithasahabitofrepeatingitself.ThewriterisaformerPakistan
ambassadortotheUN.
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