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March Madness

Thursday, March 10th - ECB policy meeting

Tuesday, March 15th - BOJ policy meeting
Wednesday, March 16th

- FOMC policy meeting

Long TLT

Buy at Trendline

30 Year Treasury

Multi-year Pattern Broken

Support from Strong Dollar
Long Term Inflation Subdued

Long Paypal (PYPL)

Strong secular trend in e-payments, growing faster than MA and V, trading at

a lower earnings multiple.

PYPL trades 26x expected 2016 eps growth of 15% vs MA & V at about 26x
for expected 2016 eps growth of 3% & 7% respectively

Q1 earnings on April 27 could serve as a positive catalyst as the company

highlights growth in peer to peer payments in their Venmo division,

Ideally a buyer in mid $30s. Stock has been range-bound between $30 and
$40 since July 2015 spin from EBAY.

Investors who believe in the long term story, but are apprehensive to buy at
the high end of the range might consider out of the money put sales to finance
a little skin in the game...

Long Paypal (PYPL) with Options

PYPL ($39) Buy the July 33/43 risk reversal for 0.50

Sell July 33 puts at $1

Buy July 43 calls for $1.50
Losses: worst case you are put the stock at $33 if stock at or below that level
on July expiration... down 15% from current levels.
Profits: Gains above the $43 strike like stock (minus the .50 paid)
Risk between $33 and $43 is only $0.50

Long Paypal (PYPL) with Options

Long The Fresh Market (TFM)

Granted, it was only an $800M deal, but Krogers paid a steep premium for
Roundys (RNDY) back in November.

On a number of different metrics, including margins and free cash flow, The
Fresh Market is just a better company.

Krogers is coming off a less than exciting 4th quarter report on March 3rd.
Full year guidance was nothing to write home about either.

On February 11th there were some headlines around Kroger for TFM. That
noise has abated somewhat. But one has to wonder if that quarter and
subsequent guidance will force Kroger to do something.

TFM has bounced off the January 20th low of $17.81. That said, the stock is
still well off the all-time highs of $63 or so in November 2012. At 15 times
earnings, TFM is cheap in comparison to some of its peers. That coupled with a
16% short interests sets the stock up nicely into earnings sometimes in the
next couple of weeks

The Fresh Market (TFM)

Long Rio Tinto (RIO)

Not a Super Cycle Story

FCF Generation
Recovery in Core Business
China and Currency Drivers
Balance Sheet
Technicals

Iron Ore: Removing Capacity =

Small Price Recovery

Aussie: Breaks Out Despite China

RIO: Not Looking For Total Re-Rating

Short Netflix (NFLX)

Growth slowing
Free Cash Flow burn
Competition
Valuation

Short Netflix (NFLX)

Short Russell 2000 (IWM)

The IWM has rallied about 16% from its February lows. The IWMs peak to
trough decline over the last year was about 27%:

Short Russell 2000 (IWM)

Playing for a failure at the uptrend (which was long term support, now
resistance) could be a high probability play from here:

Short IWM with Options

IWM ($109) Buy the May 110/90 put spread for $4

Buy May 110 puts for4.50

Sell May 90 puts at 0.50
Profits: up to $16between $106 and $90 with max gain at or below $90
Losses: up to $4between $106 and $110,with max loss of $4above $110

Short Euro (long EUO)

Policy Divergence
Draghi Wont Disappoint Again
Its the New Yen , ie Funding Currency

Inflation

Your Questions
Since there have be large out flows of the Yuan out of China to cover debt
requirements and a market feeling of devaluation of the Yuan against the dollar
do you believe the Chinese government and more importantly it people are
buying larger amounts of gold as a hedge. And this buying is what is causing
the current rise in gold prices? - Jud

BK. I've been in GTBC for a few months now because I believe the
blockchain technology can be a game changer. But what exactly am I owning
with this security?Is it a possibility that Bitcoin as a currency will eventually
fade away and only the technology behind it will live on integrated within the
Mastercards and Bank of Americas of the world? In other words, is there an
investment play here or will the technology just become commoditized
eventually? - Jason

People keep saying that the US economy is like the best house in a
decaying neighborhood. To me that means that the value of the neighborhood
is going down, and the best house in that neighborhood is not immune to that. I
don't get those predictions of the S&P going to 2100-2300 by the end of the
year. For those of you that are also bearish, and are looking at the 2020-2025
range for the market to reverse, what's your counter strategy if it doesn't? Jorge