Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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FPA Crescent
Fund
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FPACX*
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Philosophy
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Seek long-term, equity-like returns with less risk than the stock market while avoiding
permanent impairment of capital
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Performance
FPA Crescent
Annualized returns
$120,000
$100,000
$80,000
$20,000
$0
1993
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1995
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1997
1999
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2001
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9.01%
7.91%
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Sharpe ratio
$40,000
S&P 500
10.39%
Standard deviation
$60,000
2003
2005
10.12%
14.71%
9.00%
0.53
0.27
0.32
2007
2009
2011
2013
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FPACX
$93,096
S&P 500
$70,224
60% S&P/40% BA
$55,804
2015
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Performance
Trailing Performance (%)
As of Date: 12/31/2015
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Inception* 20 Years
FPA Crescent
S&P 500
MSCI ACWI
CPI
60% S&P500/40% BC Agg
15 Years
10 Years
5 Years
3 Years
1 Year
YTD
7.11
7.31
1.85
6.48
7.68
12.57
6.09
1.53
8.95
8.40
15.13
7.69
0.95
9.62
-2.06
1.38
-2.36
0.66
1.28
-2.06
1.38
-2.36
0.66
1.28
10.39
9.01
9.78
8.19
10.25
5.00
NA
7.91
2.20
7.36
2.08
5.31
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FPA Crescent
S&P 500
MSCI ACWI
CPI
60% S&P500/40% BC Agg
2015
2014
2013
-2.06
1.38
-2.36
0.66
1.28
6.64
13.69
4.16
0.68
10.62
21.95
32.39
22.80
1.53
17.56
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QTR
2.80
7.04
5.03
0.12
4.01
3/25/0010/9/07
10/10/0712/31/15
14.70
2.00
2.75
3.97
6.12
5.57
1.50
1.61
5.49
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
10.33
16.00
16.13
1.77
11.31
3.02
2.11
-7.35
3.03
4.69
12.04
15.06
1.44
12.13
28.37
26.46
2.81
18.40
-20.55
-37.00
-0.02
-22.06
6.84
5.49
4.11
6.22
12.43
15.79
2.52
11.12
10.83
4.91
3.34
4.00
10.21
10.88
3.34
8.30
Performance is annualized for periods exceeding 1 Year. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Calculated using Morningstar Direct.
Expense ratio as of the most recent prospectus is 1.11%.
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*The Fund commenced investment operations on June 2, 1993. The performance shown for periods prior to March 1, 1996 reflects the historical performance of a predecessor
fund. FPA assumed control of the predecessor fund on March 1, 1996. The FPA Crescent Fund's objectives, policies, guidelines and restrictions are, in all material respects,
equivalent to those of the predecessor fund.
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Market Cycle Performance reflects two most recent market cycles (peak to peak) defined as a period that contains a decline of at least 20% from the previous market peak over at
least a two-month period and a rebound to establish a new peak above the previous one by S&P 500 Index.
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This presentation is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer of securities nor the solicitation for purchase or sale of any securities.
This presentation is confidential and is not intended for public use or distribution. The information presented may not be reproduced or distributed without prior written consent of
First Pacific Advisors, LLC (FPA). Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third parties and is believed to be reliable; however, FPA assumes no
responsibility for the accuracy of the information.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results and current performance may be higher or lower than performance shown. This data represents past performance and
investors should understand that investment returns and principal values fluctuate, so that when you redeem your investment it may be worth more or less than its original cost.
Current month-end performance data may be obtained by calling toll-free, 1-800-982-4372.
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MSCI ACWI:
-2.36%
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Russell 3000:
0.48%
5.09%
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-4.13%
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-4.47%
Source: Morningstar Direct. Performance shown for 2015 in USD with dividends reinvested.
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Alphabet (Google)
Amazon
Facebook
General Electric
Microsoft
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Average
Total
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S&P 500
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2015
Total Return
46.6%
0.86%
36.4
117.8%
0.87%
979.6
34.2%
0.38%
105.7
27.5%
0.36%
22.7
22.7%
0.45%
22.1
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49.8%
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Trailing P/E
233.3
2.93%
1.38%
-1.55%
Source: Bloomberg; FPA calculations. Analysis assumes December 31, 2014 index weightings remained constant throughout 2015.
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Market Cap
2015 Average
Total Return
>$100B
4.39%
$50-100B
2.38%
$10-50B
-3.22%
$5-10B
-0.72%
<$5B
-19.60%
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Source: Bloomberg; FPA calculations. Analysis assumes December 31, 2014 S&P 500 index weightings remained constant throughout 2015.
Return contribution
2015 S&P 500
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Market
Capitalization
Largest 30
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Return
Contribution
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2.93%
-1.55%
1.38%
Source: Bloomberg; FPA calculations. Largest 30 consist of the largest 30 market capitalization stocks in the S&P 500 at year-end 2014. Return contribution is calculated as
2015 total return multiplied by the average monthly 2015 implied index weights based on market capitalization. The S&P 500 actually consisted of between 502 and 506
securities throughout 2015. By The other 470, we simply mean the remaining securities outside the largest 30.
Percent of
Portfolio
Microsoft
0.91%
3.55%
Meggitt
General Electric
0.36%
1.83%
0.35%
1.87%
Undisclosed
0.24%
2.73%
Owens-Illinois
United Technologies
0.22%
2.77%
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2015 - Year
Winners
Losers
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Performance
Contribution
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Performance
Contribution
Percent of
Portfolio
-0.33%
1.29%
-0.18%
-0.12%
-0.15%
1.52%
-0.15%
0.90%
-0.14%
0.67%
Performance
Contribution
Percent of
Portfolio
Performance
Contribution
Percent of
Portfolio
0.85%
3.55%
Oracle
-0.72%
4.14%
0.54%
1.87%
Alcoa
-0.64%
2.26%
0.44%
1.83%
Joy Global
-0.55%
0.17%
0.26%
2.73%
-0.53%
-0.12%
CVS
0.24%
0.00%
Meggitt
-0.42%
1.29%
Microsoft
Alphabet (A and C Shares)
General Electric
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Losers
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Based on weighted contribution to quarterly performance of the Fund. Percentage of portfolio as of December 31, 2015.
As of December 31, 2015. Portfolio composition will change due to ongoing management of the Fund. References to specific securities or sectors should not be construed as
recommendations by the Fund, its Advisor or Distributor. The discussions of Fund investments represent the views of the Fund's managers at the time of each report and are
subject to change without notice. These views may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any First Pacific Advisors portfolio.
Security examples featured are samples for presentation purposes and are intended to illustrate our investment philosophy and its application. It should not be assumed that
most recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Please refer to the back of the presentation for full disclosure information.
2007 to
2015
CAGR
2015
2014
9.63%
-1.04%
13.67%
39.62%
17.69%
6.25%
S&P 500
6.40%
1.38%
13.69%
32.39%
16.00%
3.23%
-2.42%
-0.02%
7.23%
4.25%
-3.13%
12.36%
5.38%
2.09%
MSCI ACWI
3.10%
6.53%
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-2.36%
1.32%
2013
2012
2011
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2010
L
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2009
2008
22.30%
38.39%
-38.27%
11.47%
2.11%
15.06%
26.46%
-37.00%
5.49%
1.69%
4.14%
7.24%
11.93%
-1.27%
5.98%
31.99%
17.68%
-0.48%
15.10%
21.18%
-39.22%
1.99%
1.31%
7.63%
0.01%
6.73%
7.20%
17.21%
0.95%
9.48%
4.16%
22.80%
16.13%
-7.35%
12.67%
34.63%
-42.19%
11.66%
9.51%
16.82%
1.56%
13.60%
9.63%
3.76%
3.92%
-0.19%
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2007
10
$30,000
FPACX
S&P 500
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10/10/2007 12/31/2015
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FPACX
Russell 2500
$16,000
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$25,000
$14,000
$20,000
$12,000
$10,000
$15,000
S&P 500
C
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MSCI ACWI
$8,000
$10,000
$6,000
$5,000
a
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Annualized
Return
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$4,000
Max
Drawdown
Annualized
Return
Max
Drawdown
14.70%
-13.44%
6.12%
-30.60%
8.08%
-33.82%
MSCI ACWI
1.50%
-57.49%
2.00%
-45.83%
5.57%
-54.71%
3.97%
-23.88%
5.49%
-35.30%
Market Cycle Performance reflects two most recent market cycles (peak to peak) defined as a period that contains a decline of at least 20% from the previous market peak over at least a twomonth period and a rebound to establish a new peak above the previous one by S&P 500 Index.
1 We
make a distinction between cash and liquidity, although we sometimes use them interchangeably. Cash includes the cash received from securities sold short and, as a result, can appear
to overstate the cash balance. Therefore, we believe liquidity, which nets that out, is the more appropriate measure. Past performance is no guarantee of future result.
11
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We believe our flexible approach greatly enhances the likelihood that we will deliver an equity-like return with less
risk over the long-term. (FPA Crescent Policy Statement)
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-30.6%
MSCI ACWI
-57.5%
Russell 3000
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-55.1%
S&P 500
-54.7%
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t
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2010
2011
2015-2016
-7.2%
-12.8%
-11.7%
-13.9%
-22.4%
-18.1%
-15.6%
-20.2%
-13.0%
-15.0%
-18.5%
-11.3%
52%
57%
65%
56%
Our quest for value has increasingly taken us overseas and our portfolio is more global than it has been in the past.
Currently, almost half the equity holdings (totaling almost a third of the Funds equity exposure) are foreign-domiciled.
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Geographic exposure
Domicile
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North America
South America / Latin America
Uncategorized Americas
Western / Northern Europe
Central / Eastern Europe
Asia / Pacific
Middle East / Africa
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Uncategorized Non-US
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s
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Revenue
71.0%
35.2%
0.0%
2.6%
10.1%
24.8%
14.8%
3.8%
1.5%
-4.3%
6.4%
4.7%
10.6%
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18.8%
Domicile and revenue composition for the equity positions only in the FPA Crescent Fund as of December 31, 2015. Source: Bloomberg
13
Portfolio characteristics
FPACX
Q4 2015
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FPACX
Average
i
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L
,
S&P 500
$112,169
$30,165
$26,168
$9,314
21.0
16.8
20.5
1.6
1.7
2.8
C
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$140,350
$18,062
-18.9%
8.1%
53.8%
11.3%
12.8%
17.7%
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results and current performance may be higher or lower than the performance shown. This data represents past performance and
investors should understand that investment returns and principal values fluctuate, so that when you redeem your investment it may be worth more or less than its original
cost. Current month-end performance data may be obtained via http://www.fpafunds.com/crescent or by calling toll-free, 1-800-982-4372.
14
Portfolio allocation
Risk Asset
Year End
2015
s
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Year End
2014
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L
,
Average
Since Inception
59.5%
55.5%
-3.6%
-4.2%
3.9%
1.4%
12.4%
1.0%
1.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.8%
0.3%
61.2%
54.9%
63.3%
46
51
38
Corporate debt
Mortgages
Other
Exposure, Net
c
a
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P
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fi i
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53.2%
-4.8%
Portfolio composition will change due to ongoing management of the Fund. References to specific securities or sectors should not be construed as recommendations by the Fund,
its Advisor or Distributor. The discussions of Fund investments represent the views of the Fund's managers at the time of each report and are subject to change without notice.
These views may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any First Pacific Advisors portfolio. Security examples featured are
samples for presentation purposes and are intended to illustrate our investment philosophy and its application. It should not be assumed that most recommendations made in the
future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities.
15
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12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
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0%
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U.S.
Japan
Euro Area
16
-0.12%
0.05%
0.21%
0.36%
0.51%
Switzerland
Germany
Austria
Belgium
Finland
Netherlands
Denmark
France
Ireland
Sweden
Japan
Italy
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Spain
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Average Yield
a
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-0.37%
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A
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Bond Maturity Year
L
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10
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-0.35%
-0.25%
Negative
0.68%
0.91%
Positive
17
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$10,000,000
Millions of USD
$8,000,000
$6,000,000
c
a
$4,000,000
P
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$2,000,000
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$-
2003
2004
2005
L
,
400
350
300
250
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2006
450
200
MSCI ACWI
$12,000,000
C
L
150
100
50
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
MSCI ACWI
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Bloomberg. Central Bank Balance Sheets total is the sum of Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and ECB assets. ECB assets are the
aggregate assets of 11-19 countries. Asset values converted into USD using the applicable currency cross rates at each year-end.
18
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19
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Source: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-06-24/where-have-all-the-publicly-traded-companies-gone-
20
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21
45
40
Price-Earnings Ratio
35
P/E
10-Year UST
Current
Since 1881
Since 1930
Since 1950
Since 1970
24.0
16.7
17.6
19.0
19.6
2.13%
4.59%
5.09%
5.81%
6.67%
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s
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d
A
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30
25
20
15
c
a
10
5
0
1881
P
t
1894
ri s
1908
1921
L
,
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
fi i
6%
s
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50
C
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4%
2%
0%
1934
1948
1961
1974
1988
2001
2015
Interest Rate
Source: Shiller, Robert J. Online Data Robert Shiller, www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm. Data as of January 13, 2016. P/E or price-to-earnings is a valuation ratio of a
companys current share price compared to its per-share earnings. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
22
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S&P 500 valuations at most recent market peaks vs. year-end 2015
o
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Price/Earnings
(median)
Price/Sales
(median)
Price/Book
(median)
18.9
1.4
2.9
18.2
1.7
3.1
18.7
2.1
2.9
i
F
t
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a
P
C
L
i
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23
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
t
rs
800
i
F
600
a
P
s
r
o
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d
A
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2200
L
,
C
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i
f
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24
s
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90
o
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d
A
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80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
i
F
t
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a
P
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,
C
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i
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25
L
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s
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18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
t
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2%
a
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30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
% of Assets in High Yield
35%
o
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A
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20%
C
L
0%
Source: FPA, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, December 31, 2015.
26
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a
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27
L
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BofA Merrill Lynch High Yield Index (YTM) vs. average of 5- and 10-year US Treasury yields
As of Dec. 31
5-Year UST
Spread
vs. 5-Year
10-Year UST
Spread
vs. 10-Year
Current
8.9%
1.8%
7.1%
2.3%
6.6%
High
21.7%
9.5%
19.8%
9.3%
18.8%
Low
5.8%
0.6%
2.8%
1.5%
2.8%
Average
10.4%
4.5%
5.9%
5.0%
5.4%
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o
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s
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High Yield
a
P
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Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Master II Index. As of December 31, 2015.
28
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t
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a
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C
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29
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t
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30
Default Rate
12/31/2014
Case 3
Case 4
13.4%
P
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fi i
3.6% avg
41.5% avg
11.0% peak
41.5% avg
11.0% peak
22.0% trough
4.9%
0.6%
-1.6%
3.6% avg
41.5% avg
6.8%
11.0% peak
41.5% avg
2.5%
11.0% peak
22.0% trough
0.3%
FPA Crescent
3.6% avg
41.5% avg
11.3%
12/31/2015
11.0% peak
41.5% avg
7.0%
11.0% peak
22.0% trough
4.8%
c
a
20.0%
s
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Net Yield
o
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Case 2
Recovery Rate
L
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High Gross
3.6% avg
41.5% avg
17.9%
Yield Environment
11.0% peak
41.5% avg
13.6%
11.0% peak
22.0% trough
11.4%
31
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$760 billion in high yield bonds mature in 2020-2022, roughly half the high yield market.
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5.46%
0.38%
1.15%
2.46%
1.47%
Consumer Staples
Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA/NV ADR
Carlsberg A/S B
Henkel AG & Co. KGAA
Orkla ASA
Unilever N.V.
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.
3.93%
0.71%
0.94%
0.68%
0.34%
1.04%
0.22%
Energy
Gazprom OAO - ADR
Halliburton Company
Lukoil OAO - ADR
Occidental Petroleum
Rosneft Oil Company Reg S GDR
Surgutneftegas-Preference
2.47%
0.26%
0.55%
0.26%
1.16%
0.11%
0.13%
Financials
Alleghany Corporation
American Express Company
American International Group, Inc.
Aon
Bank of America Corporation
CIT Group
Citigroup
Groupe Bruxelles Lambert S.A.
Sberbank of Russia Preference
Sberbank of Russia - ADR
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Health Care
Express Scripts
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
1.64%
0.36%
1.28%
7.99%
1.24%
1.83%
0.32%
0.37%
0.17%
1.29%
2.77%
16.57%
1.13%
2.19%
0.94%
0.93%
3.55%
4.14%
0.75%
2.31%
0.63%
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3.89%
0.45%
0.12%
0.70%
0.36%
0.13%
0.67%
0.41%
0.07%
0.46%
0.17%
0.35%
Mortgages
Stanwich Mortgage Loan Trust (Various
issues)
Sunset Mortgage Loan Company
0.98%
Derivatives/futures
0.14%
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Information Technology
Analog Devices, Inc.
Cisco Systems
Google Inc. Class A
Google Inc. Class C
Microsoft
Oracle Corporation
Qualcomm Incorporated
TE Connectivity
Yahoo
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14.92%
0.71%
1.01%
2.73%
3.37%
1.64%
1.16%
2.76%
1.26%
0.12%
0.16%
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Industrials
Esterline Technologies Corporation
General Electric Co.
Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited
Jardine Strategic Holdings Limited
Joy Global Inc.
Meggitt PLC
United Technologies Corporation
0.18%
0.80%
Materials
Alcoa Inc.
MMC Norilsk Nickel OJSC - ADR
Owens-Illinois
3.47%
2.26%
0.31%
0.90%
38.76%
34.09%
Other
Undisclosed
3.09%
3.09%
4.67%
100%
-3.60%
0.29%
0.29%
Portfolio composition will change due to ongoing management of the Fund. References to specific securities
or sectors should not be construed as recommendations by the Fund, its Advisor or Distributor.
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Disclaimer
These slides are intended as supplemental material to the 4th Quarter 2015 FPA Crescent audio presentation that is posted on our website fpafunds.com.
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We do want to make sure you understand that the views expressed on these slides and in the accompanying audio presentation are as of today, January 29, 2016 and are subject to change
based on market and other conditions. These views may differ from other portfolio managers and analysts of the firm as a whole, and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee
of future results or investment advice. Any mention of individual securities or sectors should not be construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell such securities, and any information
provided is not a sufficient basis upon which to make an investment decision. The information provided does not constitute, and should not be construed as, an offer or solicitation with respect to
any securities, products or services discussed.
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Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This data represents past performance and investors should understand that investment returns and principal values fluctuate,
so that when you redeem your investment it may be worth more or less than its original cost. Performance has been calculated on a total return basis, which combines principal and
dividend income changes for the periods shown. Principal changes are based on the difference between the beginning and closing net asset values for the period and assume
reinvestment of all dividends and distributions paid. All applicable expenses such as advisory fees have been included in calculating performance. It should not be assumed that
recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the security examples discussed. Current month-end performance data may be obtained by
calling toll-free, 1-800-982-4372.
You should consider the Funds investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses carefully before you invest. The Prospectus
details the Fund's objective and policies and other matters of interest to the prospective investor. Please read this Prospectus
carefully before investing. The Prospectus may be obtained by visiting the website at www.fpafunds.com, by email at
crm@fpafunds.com, toll-free by calling 1-800-982-4372 or by contacting the Fund in writing.
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Statistics have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index (S&P 500) is a
capitalization-weighted index which covers industrial, utility, transportation and financial service companies, and represents approximately 75% of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)
capitalization and 30% of NYSE issues. This index is considered a measure of large capitalization stock performance. The index does not reflect any commissions or fees which would be incurred
by an investor purchasing the stocks it represents. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an unmanaged index representing the rate of the inflation of the U.S. consumer prices as determined by the
U.S. Department of Labor Statistics. There can be no guarantee that the CPI or other indexes will reflect the exact level of inflation at any given time. 60% S&P500/40% Barclays Aggregate Index
is a hypothetical combination of unmanaged indices comprised of 60% S&P 500 Index and 40% Barclays Aggregate Index, the Fund's neutral mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds.
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Investments in mutual funds carry risks and investors may lose principal value. Stock markets are volatile and can decline significantly in response to adverse issuer, political, regulatory, market, or
economic developments. The Fund may purchase foreign securities, including American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and other depository receipts, which are subject to interest rate, currency
exchange rate, economic and political risks; this may be enhanced when investing in emerging markets. Small and mid cap stocks involve greater risks and they can fluctuate in price more than
larger company stocks. Short-selling involves increased risks and transaction costs. You risk paying more for a security than you received from its sale.
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Interest rate risk is when interest rates go up, the value of fixed income securities, such as bonds, typically go down and investors may lose principal value. Credit risk is the risk of loss of principal
due to the issuers failure to repay a loan. Generally, the lower the quality rating of a security, the greater the risk that the issuer will fail to pay interest fully and return principal in a timely manner. If
an issuer defaults the security may lose some or all of its value.
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The return of principal in a bond investment is not guaranteed. Bonds have issuer, interest rate, inflation and credit risks. Lower rated bonds, callable bonds and other types of debt obligations
involve greater risks. Mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities are subject to prepayment risk and the risk of default on the underlying mortgages or other assets.
The portfolio holdings as the most recent quarter end may be obtained at http://fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/2015-09-crescent---excluding-cusip-and-sedol.pdf?sfvrsn=2
The FPA Funds are distributed by UMB Distribution Services, LLC, 235 W. Galena Street, Milwaukee, WI, 53212.
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