Frontier Pt2

Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Morocco
Figure 406: Key data
Local Currency
MAD
S&P / Moody's Rating
BBB-/Ba1
Weight in MSCI FM (%)
7.5%
MSCI Index
MXMA
2016 P/E
14.6
2016 EPS Growth
7.5%
Trailing P/B
2.5
Beta to FM
0.2
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
31.4
MSCI free float MktCap, $bn
6.1
No. of Companies
9
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
12.5
Local Index
MOSEMDX
MktCap ($bn)
42.1
No. of Companies
54
3M ADTV ($mn)
19.2
Figure 407: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100)
Figure 408: Economic outlook
100
30,000
2017
4.8 25,000
3,442
34.2 20,000
2.0
-1.5 15,000
-3.0
10,000
80
5,000
MSCI Morocco, $
160
MSCI FM, $
2015
4.9
3,077
33.5
1.6
-2.3
-4.3
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
CPI (year-end, %YoY)
C/A balance (% of GDP)
Government balance (% of GDP)
140
120
2016
3.7
3,249
33.8
2.0
-1.6
-3.5
60
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jan-10
40
Figure 409: Index and stock data

Ticker
MXMA
IAM MC
ATW MC
LAC MC
BCE MC
BCP MC
ADH MC
CMA MC
WAA MC
MNG MC
HOL MC
CSR MC
TMA MC
TQM MC
BCI MC
LES MC
ATH MC
LBV MC
CDM MC
Name
MSCI Morocco
Maroc Telecom
Attijariwafa
Lafarge Ciments
Banque Marocaine
Banque Centrale
Douja Prom Addoh
Ciments Du Maroc
Wafa Assurance
Managem
Holcim
Cosumar
Total Maroc Sa
Taqa Morocco
Banque Marocaine
Lesieur Cristal
Auto Hall
Label Vie
Credit Du Maroc
MktCap
($mn)
31,358
Telecoms
10,313
Financials
6,769
Materials
2,761
Financials
3,840
Financials
3,960
Financials
866
Materials
1,667
Financials
1,094
Materials
526
Materials
844
Cons. Staples
819
Energy
508
Utilities
1,415
Financials
713
Cons. Staples
347
Cons. Disc.
480
Cons. Staples
288
Financials
450
Sector
Figure 410: 3MADTV, $mn

80
Morocco 3M ADTV ($mn)
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
6,083
2,066
1,360
690
578
415
340
347
219
68
414
229
229
201
182
141
126
125
113
3MADTV
($mn)
12.5
1.3
5.6
1.2
0.8
1.7
1.4
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.1
3.0
0.2
0.1
1.3
0.3
$ Performance
12MF Trail 12MF # Analyst MSCI
1M
3M
12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
2.0
-0.4
-16.3
13.9
2.5
20.0
50
7.5
4.0
5.3
-10.2
16.1
8.2
34.9
12
34.0
-1.8
0.8
-11.6
13.3
1.9
12.5
7
22.3
0.5
-6.4
-21.2
na
5.8
28.3
5
11.4
-0.7
-2.9
-7.3
16.0
2.3
na
3
9.5
-1.4
0.5
-9.6
14.8
1.1
9.4
6
6.8
10.6
-2.0
-18.2
7.4
0.8
9.4
4
5.7
8.8
-1.1
6.8
na
2.9
16.1
5
5.5
-1.0
-13.3
-22.9
11.9
2.4
16.5
3
3.6
-13.8
-41.6
-45.5
na
1.5
8.8
5
1.1
-1.9
-12.6
-31.9
na
2.1
23.8
5
11.7
12.6
10.0
10.1
2.3
18.0
5
4.8
-2.8
4.3
na
na
39.1
2
1.9
0.1
15.2
15.8
na
17.4
3
-14.9
-3.7
-29.1
14.9
0.8
na
2
9.9
13.5
16.7
15.4
2.3
13.0
5
3.0
-3.6
13.7
16.0
2.8
13.8
4
-3.5
-7.1
-9.8
na
2.1
8.7
4
-10.8
-11.3
-28.0
na
1.0
na
2
-
Figure 411: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x)

Morocco
20
1.5
0.5
20
18
12
10
8
Financials
18%
50
6
48%
10
Telecoms
34%
30
20
2.5
14
Frontier
15
40
3.5
16
Figure 412: MSCI sector weights
70
60
4.5
0
Materials
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
Jan
Jul-14
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jan
Jul-11
Jul-10
Jan
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
10
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
95
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Figure 413: Population, '000
Figure 414: Export destinations, total $23bn

0-19
30,000
20-64
65+
% of total exports
25,000
Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
0.7
16
0.6
14
12
0.5
20,000
10
0.4
15,000
0.3
10,000
0.2
5,000
0.1
Source: UN
Figure 415: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP
Source: IMF
Figure 416: Morocco - dirham
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS
4.5
CPI (average % YoY)

-10
MAD vs $
14.0
-9
3.5
-8
12.0
-7
10.0
-6
2.5
-5
2
1.5
-4
6.0
Morocco REER (Dec 07 = 100)

85
Weaker
90
95
100
105
110
Stronger
115
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
0.0
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2.0
2008
-1
2007
-2
0.5
2006
4.0
2005
-3
2004
MAD vs EUR
8.0
Source: IMF
Figure 417: Bank lending growth vs GDP
Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel

Figure 418: Real GDP % change, YoY
Change in lending as % of GDP
20
Germany
UK
India
USA
Italy
Brazil
France
Spain
Euro Area
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
EU
Real GDP (% YoY)
7.6
18
16
5.9
14
12
10
5.2
4.8
4.2
3.5
3.3
3.8
3.7
3.0
4.8 5.0
4.9
4.7
2.4
Source: IMF
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2005
2004
Source: IMF
berg, MSCI
96
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Nigeria
Local Currency
NGN
B+/Ba3
12.3%
MSCI Index
MXNG
2016 P/E
6.4
2016 EPS Growth
3.1%
Trailing P/B
1.2
Beta to FM
1.3
32.2
9.9
No. of Companies
16
11.3
Local Index
NGSEINDX
MktCap ($bn)
41.2
No. of Companies
179
3M ADTV ($mn)
13.2

MSCI Nigeria, $
250
MSCI FM, $
2015
4.0
2,758
178.7
10.5
-1.8
-3.9
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
200
150
2016
4.3
2,641
183.6
9.5
-1.2
-3.2
250,000
2017
4.5
200,000
2,695
188.7
8.0 150,000
-0.5
-3.3 100,000
100
50,000
50
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jan-10

Ticker
Name
MXNI
MSCI Nigeria
NB NL
Nigerian Brewer
GUARANTY NL
Guaranty Trust
NESTLE NL Nestle Nigeria P
ZENITHBA NLZenith Bank Plc
DANGCEM NLDangote Cement
FO NL
Forte Oil Plc
WAPCO NL Lafarge Africa P
ETI NL
Ecobank Transnat
GUINNESS NLGuinness Nigeria
FBNH NL
Fbn Holdings Plc
UNILEVER NLUnilever Nigeria
ACCESS NL Access Bank Plc
STANBIC NL Stanbic Ibtc Hol
UBA NL
United Bank Afr
SEPLAT NL Seplat Petrol
PZ NL
Pz Cussons Niger
7UP NL
7-Up Bottlng
DANGSUGA NL
Dangote Sugar Re
Sector
Cons. Staples
Financials
Cons. Staples
Financials
Materials
Energy
Materials
Financials
Cons. Staples
Financials
Cons. Staples
Financials
Financials
Financials
Energy
Cons. Staples
Cons. Staples
Cons. Staples
3MADTV
($mn)
11.3
1.7
2.7
0.7
1.7
0.7
0.3
0.5
0.2
0.3
0.6
0.3
0.9
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.0
$ Performance
1M
3M
-13.1
-23.5
-25.3
6.1
1.2
15.4
248
12.3
-12.9
-30.6
-33.2
17.3
4.7
23.7
19
19.8
-9.2
-28.5
-23.2
4.6
1.2
22.9
23
12.1
-10.0
-15.0
-16.7
22.7
14.0
54.5
17
11.2
-11.0
-26.0
-25.9
3.7
0.7
17.4
20
9.9
-14.4
-20.9
-21.0
9.4
3.5
29.8
17
7.7
-5.0
3.0
48.0
63.4
29.4
12.8
5
5.8
-13.4
-16.5
-7.9
8.8
1.9
17.8
15
5.5
-10.4
-22.1
-9.4
3.1
0.7
13.2
9
5.2
-8.2
-11.8
-19.4
18.7
3.4
16.5
17
4.1
-15.7
-22.0
-42.9
2.2
0.3
10.1
18
3.6
-22.4
-17.8
-7.8
50.4
17.5
25.3
14
3.2
-11.6
-13.5
-26.3
2.9
0.3
11.8
17
3.0
-13.0
-34.4
-52.2
4.9
1.1
19.0
12
2.8
-11.9
-14.3
-21.1
2.0
0.3
15.5
19
2.7
-8.5
-22.1
-41.6
3.7
0.4
9.1
13
2.0
-17.9
-15.8
-26.2
19.9
2.1
9.6
13
1.3
8.2
0.3
15.9
16.6
5.2
25.3
2
-6.1
-18.4
-14.5
5.4
1.2
20.4
12
-
Nigeria 3M ADTV ($mn)
Nigeria
30
15
10
13%
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
15
40%
Financials
-5
Materials
39%
-10
Energy
Jan-16
Sep-15
May-15
Jan-15
Sep-14
May-14
Jan-14
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
Jan-12
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
16
Cons.
Staples
8%
10
20
18
Frontier
12
25
20
10
14
35
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
9,927
1,990
1,164
1,128
927
775
584
549
524
416
360
335
301
282
263
205
126
631
299
May-12
40
MktCap
($mn)
32,168
3,984
2,440
2,823
1,989
11,081
1,949
1,831
1,750
832
718
637
597
653
534
524
419
631
341
97
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
250,000
20-64
65+
% of total exports
200,000
150,000
0.4
40
0.35
35
0.3
30
0.25
25
Germany
South Africa
Spain
India
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
Japan
10
0.05
France
0.1
50,000
Netherlands
15
Brazil
100,000
Euro Area
20
EU
0.2
0.15
Source: UN
CPI (average % YoY)
-5
18
16
14
12
10
12.0
10.0
10
15
6
4
20
NGN vs EUR
Nigeria REER (Dec 07 = 100)

90
Weaker
95
8.0
100
6.0
105
4.0
110
2.0
Stronger
0.0
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
25
2004
NGN vs $
14.0
Source: IMF

15
115
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
20
Source: IMF
Figure 429: Nigeria - naira
Real GDP (% YoY)
12
10
10
10.0
9.1
9.0
8.8 8.7
8.3
8.0
6.3
Source: IMF
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
-10
2005
2004
-5
2004
2018E
4.5 4.7
4.0 4.3
4.3
2017E
4.9
2016E
5.4
2015E
Source: IMF
berg, MSCI
98
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Oman
MSCI Pakistan, $
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
MSCI FM, $
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
4,000
2015
2016
2017
3,500
4.4
2.8
2.0
15,672 15,322 15,973 3,000
3.8
4.0
4.1
2,500
0.4
2.0
2.9
-16.9
-24.3
-22.4 2,000
-17.7
-20.0
-18.5
1,500
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-10
1,000
Jan-11

Local Currency
OMR
BBB+/A1
4.5%
MSCI Index
MXOM
2016 P/E
7.3
2016 EPS Growth
2.0%
Trailing P/B
1.0
Beta to FM
0.4
9.2
3.7
No. of Companies
8
5.7
Local Index
MSM30
MktCap ($bn)
14.6
No. of Companies
30
3M ADTV ($mn)
11.1
Ticker
MXOM
OTEL OM
BKMB OM
ORDS OM
BKSB OM
HBMO OM
RCCI OM
ABOB OM
NBOB OM
SSPW OM
OMVS OM
BKDB OM
BKNZ OM
GECS OM
SOMS OM
OCOI OM
AACT OM
MHAS OM
SUWP OM
Name
MSCI Oman
Oman Telecommuni
Bankmuscat Saogg
Ooredoo
Bank Sohar
Hsbc Bank Oman
Raysut Cement Co
Ahli Bank
National Bank Of
Sembcorp Salalah
Ominvest
Bank Dhofar Saog
Bank Nizwa
Galfar Engineer
Shell Oman Marke
Oman Cement Co
Al-Anwar Ceramic
Al Maha Petroleu
Al Suwadi Power
Sector
Telecoms
Financials
Telecoms
Financials
Financials
Materials
Financials
Financials
Utilities
Financials
Financials
Financials
Industrials
Energy
Materials
Industrials
Energy
Utilities
3MADTV
($mn)
5.7
0.9
3.0
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.1
1.4
0.2
0.3
1.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
$ Performance
1M
3M
-10.5
-18.2
-25.5
7.4
1.0
12.3
53
4.5
-8.9
-12.5
-18.6
8.7
1.9
19.8
8
34.1
-11.9
-22.7
-28.0
5.6
0.7
12.9
9
26.9
-13.4
-18.8
-9.9
8.5
2.0
20.3
10
11.4
-17.2
-25.7
-38.8
6.2
0.8
12.3
6
8.0
-4.9
-19.0
-32.4
12.5
0.6
3.2
5
6.9
-8.1
-15.4
-48.5
8.7
1.3
13.8
3
4.7
-4.6
-8.3
-8.2
9.2
1.2
12.7
4
4.7
-9.1
-19.6
-25.9
5.7
0.8
14.0
8
3.2
0.0
-9.7
8.7
na
2.8
na
2
2.7
-10.6
15.6
na
1.1
na
1
3.7
-7.8
-27.3
8.5
1.0
11.7
5
-11.3
-21.2
-21.2
6.3
0.7
na
1
-28.8
-39.5
-66.7
na
0.2
-10.1
2
-1.8
-1.7
-1.7
14.0
5.5
34.6
3
-2.2
0.0
-11.8
11.3
1.0
7.4
4
-7.9
-18.1
-25.3
14.0
2.1
15.2
3
-9.5
-12.2
-20.4
na
2.4
na
2
-0.5
-11.6
6.2
14.4
1.8
na
1
-
Oman
14
45%
4
2
0
20
18
6
50%
Telecoms
2
0
Materials
Jan-16
Sep-15
May-15
Jan-15
Sep-14
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
May-12
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
Financials
5%
10
10
10
12
15
12
14
Frontier
10
20
14
16
12
25
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
3,664
1,249
986
419
292
255
174
173
117
607
587
371
195
167
148
126
124
122
83
Jan-12
30
Oman 3M ADTV ($mn)
MktCap
($mn)
9,200
2,776
2,464
1,048
487
509
497
692
839
607
649
903
245
167
499
387
215
308
353
99
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
65+
% of total exports
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
Source: UN
Source: IMF
Figure 442: Oman - rial
CPI (average % YoY)

-30
-25
12
OMR vs $
14.0
-20
12.0
10
-15
10.0
-10
6.0
105
4.0
10
2.0
110
Stronger
0.0
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
115
Source: IMF
Real GDP (% YoY)
18
16
14
8.2
6.1
12
5.4
4.8
4.5
10
5.8
4.7
4.1
Source: IMF
2.9
2.5
2.8
2.0
1.4
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
1.3
2005
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2004
4.4
2017E
20

2016E
2015E
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
20
2004
95
100
15
90
Weaker
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
Oman REER (Dec 07 = 100)
8.0
-5
OMR vs EUR
2014
14
USA
Pakistan
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
Thailand
China
500
India
1,000
Saudi Arabia
1,500
10
Taiwan
2,000
15
Japan
2,500
20
Korea
3,000
25
UAE
3,500
2018E
4,000
20-64
Source: IMF
berg, MSCI
100
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Pakistan
MSCI Pakistan, $
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
MSCI FM, $
200,000
2015
4.2
1,427
189.9
3.2
-0.8
-5.3
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
2016
4.5
n/a
193.6
6.0
-0.5
-4.2
2017
4.5
n/a
197.3
4.1
-0.5
-3.3
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
20,000
Jan-11
PKR
B-/B3
8.7%
MXPK
7.8
0.6%
1.5
0.7
24.1
7.0
16
19.9
KSE
66.3
571
72.3
Jan-10

Local Currency
MSCI Index
2016 P/E
2016 EPS Growth
Trailing P/B
Beta to FM
No. of Companies
Local Index
MktCap ($bn)
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn)

Ticker
MXPK
MCB PK
HBL PK
LUCK PK
OGDC PK
FFC PK
ENGRO PK
UBL PK
PSO PK
HUBC PK
NBP PK
PPL PK
INDU PK
FATIMA PK
POL PK
KEL PK
PTC PK
NESTLE PA
BWCL PA
Name
MSCI Pakistan
Mcb Bank Ltd
Habib Bank Ltd
Lucky Cement
Oil & Gas Develo
Fauji Fertilizer
Engro Corp
United Bank Ltd
Pak State Oil
Hub Power Co
Natl Bk Pakistan
Pakistan Petrole
Indus Motor
Fatima Fertilize
Pak Oilfields
K-Electric Ltd
Ptcl
Nestle Pakistan
Bestway Cement
MktCap
($mn)
24,090
Financials
2,048
Financials
2,387
Materials
1,489
Energy
4,468
Materials
1,347
Materials
1,329
Financials
1,680
Energy
832
Utilities
1,129
Financials
1,065
Energy
2,185
Cons. Disc.
778
Materials
761
Energy
481
Utilities
1,824
Telecoms
705
Cons. Staples
3,112
Materials
773
Sector
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
6,988
1,018
957
731
672
614
591
504
422
386
265
218
157
154
143
93
64
3,112
574
3MADTV
($mn)
19.9
0.8
1.5
1.3
2.1
1.5
4.6
1.5
1.7
0.8
0.1
1.9
0.2
0.4
1.5
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
$ Performance
1M
3M
-7.9
-14.6
-29.1
7.6
1.5
18.5
230
8.7
-10.7
-19.7
-44.5
8.1
1.5
18.4
19
14.6
-15.0
-17.8
-21.0
7.4
1.4
18.2
17
13.6
-2.5
-9.1
-11.6
9.9
2.4
20.9
16
10.6
-7.1
-21.0
-51.0
6.4
1.0
15.1
16
9.6
-6.8
-11.7
-19.5
8.7
3.1
59.4
17
8.7
-5.2
-13.6
-14.0
7.6
2.1
19.3
10
8.5
-6.5
-12.0
-22.1
6.4
1.2
19.6
19
7.2
-3.5
-6.6
-18.9
6.0
1.0
14.6
15
5.9
-0.2
-1.7
17.2
9.7
3.2
33.9
15
5.6
-1.9
-6.3
-28.0
7.5
0.7
10.0
14
3.8
-6.3
-8.3
-36.2
8.3
1.2
13.7
17
3.1
3.8
-13.1
-0.3
9.0
3.0
32.1
10
2.2
-13.0
-20.8
-3.8
6.7
1.5
26.9
12
2.2
-20.8
-32.1
-44.4
6.2
3.4
24.6
17
2.1
-4.6
-6.8
-23.6
6.4
1.4
23.5
11
1.3
-11.0
-18.5
-46.8
8.7
0.7
7.8
5
0.9
-9.8
-22.1
-33.8
32.5
23.4
85.4
1
5.6
1.1
7.6
na
2.2
na
0
-
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
10
8

Pakistan 3M ADTV ($mn)
140
12
120
10
100
80
Pakistan
14

6
Frontier
Financials
7% 2%
1%
60
40
30%
Materials
39%
21%
Energy
Utilities
-2
20
Cons. Disc.
Jan-16
Sep-15
May-15
Jan-15
Sep-14
May-14
Jan-14
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jan-12
May-12
160
Telecoms
101
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
200,000
20-64
65+
% of total exports
0.3
160,000
0.25
140,000
0.2
180,000
120,000
5
4
0.15
100,000
80,000
0.1
Source: UN
20
CPI (average % YoY)

-10
18
-8
16
14
-6
12
-4
10
8
-2
PKR vs $
13.0
PKR vs EUR
Pakistan REER (Dec 07 = 100)

60
Weaker
11.0
70
9.0
80
7.0
90
5.0
100
3.0
Source: IMF
120

10
110
Stronger
1.0
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
Source: IMF
Figure 455: Pakistan - rupee
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
Saudi Arabia
UK
Afghanistan
China
EU
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
Spain
Germany
20,000
UAE
USA
40,000
0.05
Euro Area
60,000
Real GDP (% YoY)
10
9.0
9
8
7.5
5.8 5.5
6
5
5.2
5.0
3.6 3.8 3.7
4
2
4.5 4.5
4.0 4.2
2.6
3
2
0.4
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2016E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2015E
Source: IMF
2004
-2
Source: IMF
berg, MSCI
102
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Romania
Local Currency
RON
BBB-/Baa3
3.4%
MSCI Index
MXRO
2016 P/E
9.5
2016 EPS Growth
-7.9%
Trailing P/B
0.9
Beta to FM
1.0
9.8
2.7
No. of Companies
5
5.6
Local Index
BET
MktCap ($bn)
13.4
No. of Companies
10
3M ADTV ($mn)
8.1

MSCI Romania, $
160
MSCI FM, $
16,000
2015
3.4
8,807
19.9
-0.5
-0.7
-1.8
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
140
120
100
2016
3.9
9,251
19.8
1.1
-1.5
-2.6
2017
3.4
9,951
19.8
2.5
-2.0
-3.0
80
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
60
4,000
40
2,000
20
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jan-10

Ticker
MXRO
TLV RE
SNG RE
EL RE
BRD RE
SNP RE
FP RE
TGN RE
TEL RE
SNN RE
BVB RE
Name
MSCI Romania
Banca Transilvan
Societatea Natio
Electrica Sa
Brd-Groupe Socie
Omv Petrom Sa
Sc Fondul Propri
Transgaz Sa Medi
Transelectrica S
Societatea Natio
Bursa De Valori
Sector
Financials
Energy
Utilities
Financials
Energy
na
Energy
Utilities
Utilities
Financials
MktCap
($mn)
9,800
1,669
2,209
956
1,695
3,376
1,842
740
480
438
48
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
2,723
1,168
441
427
418
269
1,492
307
198
77
46
3MADTV
($mn)
5.6
2.9
0.9
0.7
0.7
0.5
1.9
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
$ Performance
1M
3M
-9.2
-13.7
-8.4
9.1
0.9
6.7
45
3.4
-5.0
-9.8
22.1
11.0
1.5
11.6
9
42.7
-11.2
-20.9
-34.5
6.3
na
14.2
9
16.2
-6.4
-5.2
-10.8
11.2
na
5.9
8
15.7
-14.8
-12.5
-1.3
10.0
1.2
10.9
11
15.5
-16.1
-25.8
-35.4
6.6
0.5
6.3
8
9.9
-8.8
-13.2
-17.0
na
na
na
8
-6.8
-3.6
-6.7
7.3
0.9
11.4
6
-6.5
0.8
-11.7
6.9
1.2
8.9
8
-6.4
-15.2
-26.8
9.0
0.2
2.4
5
-4.4
-16.6
-36.0
14.4
2.0
12.6
4
-
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
15

Romania 3M ADTV ($mn)
12
12
10
10
Frontier
Financials
16%
26%
58%
-5
Energy
-10
Utilities
Jan-16
Sep-15
May-15
Jan-15
Sep-14
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
Jan-12
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
10
2
0
Romania
14
May-12
14
Note: gaps reflect lack of analyst estimates; spikes reflect change in index constituents
103
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
16,000
20-64
65+
% of total exports
0.8
14,000
60
0.7
12,000
0.6
10,000
0.5
8,000
0.4
6,000
0.3
50
40
30
20
0.2
4,000
10
0.1
2,000
Russia
Bulgaria
UK
Turkey
Hungary
France
Italy
EU
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
Germany
Euro Area
Source: UN
14
Source: IMF
Figure 468: Romania - leu
CPI (average % YoY)

-16
RON vs $
5.0
-2
-2
Romania REER (Dec 07 = 100)

60
Weaker
4.5
70
4.0
80
90
100
2.0
1.5

15
120
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
Source: IMF
110
Stronger
1.0
2018E
2017E
-4
2016E
2015E
-6
2014
2.5
2013
3.0
2012
-8
2011
2010
3.5
2009
-10
2008
2007
-12
2006
10
2005
-14
2004
12
RON vs EUR
Real GDP (% YoY)
10
8.4
8.1
8
10
8.5
6.9
4.2
3.4
4
5
2.8
3.4 3.9 3.4 3.2
1.1 0.6
2
0
-2
-0.8
-4
-5
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
-7.1
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2016E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2015E
Source: IMF
-8
2010
-6
-10
Source: IMF
berg, MSCI
104
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Serbia
Local Currency
RSD
BB-/B1
0.2%
MSCI Index
MXRS
2016 P/E
na
2016 EPS Growth
na
Trailing P/B
0.6
Beta to FM
0.3
1.0
0.2
No. of Companies
2
0.0
Local Index
BELEXLIN
MktCap ($bn)
2.6
No. of Companies
42
3M ADTV ($mn)
0.5

MSCI Serbia, $
160
MSCI FM, $
7,000
2015
0.5
5,102
7.2
2.5
-4.0
-3.9
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
140
120
2016
1.5
5,268
7.2
4.1
-3.9
-3.8
2017
2.0
5,556
7.2
4.0
-3.9
-3.0
100
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
80
1,000
60
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jan-10
40
n/a
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
14
12
2
0
-2
66%
-4
Jan
Jul-15
Industrials
Jan
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
Energy
Jan
14
10
34%
Jul-14
16
Jul-13
18
Jan
$ Performance
1M
3M
-3.2
-1.5
-5.0
41.1
0.6
0.7
3
0.2
-7.4
-12.9
-22.9
na
0.5
na
3
66.2
-15.3
-21.2
-2.7
na
1.3
na
0
33.8
-2.3
-8.9
-31.9
5.3
0.4
6.5
1
1.0
0.9
6.3
na
1.3
na
0
-2.0
2.6
17.8
na
1.3
na
0
0.6
42.8
34.5
na
1.2
na
1
-0.3
9.8
-17.8
na
4.0
na
0
-2.3
11.7
56.4
na
0.9
na
0
-5.9
-1.9
47.4
na
0.7
na
0
0.4
-0.9
10.6
7.3
0.3
4.6
0
-1.2
3.7
12.7
na
0.8
na
0
-15.5
-6.2
-13.0
na
0.7
na
0
-4.3
-11.9
36.0
na
0.3
na
0
9.8
10.0
3.9
na
1.3
na
0
-4.5
-9.1
-34.6
na
3.1
na
0
-10.0
28.3
69.8
na
4.0
na
0
-6.4
-3.2
-22.6
na
0.3
na
0
-1.4
-2.9 431.8
na
na
na
0
-
8
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jul-12
MSCI Serbia 3M ADTV ($mn)
Jan
3MADTV
($mn)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Jan
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
165
109
56
74
45
38
21
13
13
13
12
12
6
5
5
5
4
3
3
Jul-11
MSCI Serbia
Nis Ad Novi Sad
Aerodrom Nikola
Komercijalna Ban
Energoprojekt Ho
Galenika
Sojaprotein Ad
Imlek Ad
Alfa Plam Ad Vra
Messer Tehnogas
Aik Banka Ad
Metalac Ad Gornj
Jedinstvo Sevojn
Jubmes
Planinka Ad Kur
Bambi Ad Pozarev
Energoprojekt En
Gosa Montaza Ad
Industrijske Nek
MktCap
($mn)
1,021
Energy
823
Industrials
294
Financials
234
Industrials
97
Materials
52
Cons. Staples
112
Cons. Staples
369
Cons. Disc.
50
Materials
73
Financials
134
Cons. Disc.
22
Industrials
13
Financials
13
na
13
Cons. Staples
140
na
39
Industrials
4
Financials
3
Sector
Jul-10
MXRS
NIIS SG
AERO SG
KMBN SG
ENHL SG
FITO SG
SJPT SG
IMLK SG
ALFA SG
TGAS SG
AIKB SG
MTLC SG
JESV SG
JMBN SG
PLNN SG
BMBI SG
EPEN SG
GMON SG
INNK SG
Name
Jan
Ticker
105
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
7,000
20-64
65+
% of total exports
0.7
12
6,000
0.6
10
5,000
0.5
0.4
4,000
0.3
0.2
Slovenia
Romania
Italy
Montenegro
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
Macedonia, FYR
Russia
1,000
Bosnia and Herze
Germany
0.1
EU
2,000
Euro Area
3,000
Source: UN
18
Source: IMF
Figure 481: Serbia - dinar
CPI (average % YoY)

-25
16
-20
14
RSD vs $
140.0
RSD vs EUR
Serbia REER (Dec 07 = 100)

0
Weaker
120.0
50
100.0
12
-15
10
8
-10
100
80.0
150
60.0
200
40.0
-5

14
300
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
Source: IMF
250
Stronger
0.0
2004
20.0
Real GDP (% YoY)
10
12
9.0
10
5.5
8
6
5.9
4.9
5.4
3.5
2.6
0.6
1.5
1.4
2.0
0.5
Source: IMF
-1.0
2018E
2017E
2016E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2015E
-1.8
-3.1
2005
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
-4
2006
-4
2005
-2
2004
-2
2004
Source: IMF
berg, MSCI
106
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Slovenia
Local Currency
EUR
A-/Baa3
2.3%
MSCI Index
MXSV
2016 P/E
10.9
2016 EPS Growth
-1.6%
Trailing P/B
1.3
Beta to FM
0.7
2.7
1.9
No. of Companies
2
0.7
Local Index
SBITOP
MktCap ($bn)
4.6
No. of Companies
7
3M ADTV ($mn)
1.1

MSCI Slovenia, $
160
MSCI FM, $
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
140
120
100
1,400
2015
2016
2017
2.3
1.8
2.0 1,200
20,712 21,308 22,275
1,000
2.1
2.1
2.1
-0.2
1.9
1.9
6.7
6.2
5.7
-3.7
-5.3
-5.0
80
60
40
20
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jan-10

Ticker
Name
Sector
MXSL
KRKG SV
ZVTG SV
PETG SV
POSR SV
TLSG SV
LKPG SV
GRVG SV
MSCI Slovenia
Krka
Zavarovalnica Tr
Petrol Dd Ljublj
Pozavarovalnica
Telekom Sloven
Luka Koper
Gorenje Velenje
Healthcare
Financials
Cons. Disc.
Financials
Telecoms
Industrials
Cons. Disc.
MktCap
($mn)
2,746
2,221
596
592
242
518
346
120
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
1,880
1,641
239
390
146
140
100
68
3MADTV
($mn)
0.7
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
$ Performance
1M
3M
-4.7
-3.3
-5.7
10.4
1.3
11.4
11
2.3
-4.7
-3.5
5.1
11.3
1.4
11.5
9
87.5
3.9
9.0
-8.5
7.8
0.8
10.7
2
12.5
3.8
1.5
-10.4
na
1.0
10.6
2
1.0
1.5
-22.4
6.3
0.8
11.6
2
-1.2
-10.6
-53.0
9.3
0.7
5.9
2
0.5
-1.9
-4.5
9.2
1.1
10.8
3
-4.3
-0.4
-23.9
15.8
0.3
1.8
2
-
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
25
20
Slovenia 3M ADTV ($mn)
SBITOP Index
15
8.0
13
6.0
11
4.0
10
Frontier
Financials
-20
Jan-16
Sep-15
May-15
Jan-15
Sep-14
May-14
Jan-14
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
-5
-15
87%
Sep-12
0.0
Healthcare
-10
May-12
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
2.0
15
13%
Jan-12
10.0
Valuation for local index due to lack of history for MSCI Index
107
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
65+
% of total exports
0.8
1,200
0.7
1,000
0.6
30
25
20
0.5
800
0.4
600
0.3
400
0.2
15
10
5
0.1
200
Slovakia
Russia
France
Hungary
Croatia
Austria
Italy
Euro Area
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
Source: UN
CPI (average % YoY)

-6
-4
-2
-1
EUR vs $
0.6
Slovenia REER (Dec 07 = 100)

75
Weaker
0.8
80
1.0
85
1.2
90
1.4
95

-5
-4
-10
-6
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
-10
2006
-8
-20
2005
-15
Source: IMF
-1.1
-2.7
-7.8
2016E
-2
2.3 1.8 2.0 2.0
2015E
0.6
2014
1.2
2012
3.0
2011
3.3
2010
10
4.4 4.0
2009
2008
15
2006
5.7
2005
20
2004
6.9
2007
Real GDP (% YoY)
2004
25
105
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
Source: IMF
100
Stronger
1.8
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
1.6
2013
Source: IMF
Figure 494: Slovenia - euro
2017E
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
EU
Germany
2018E
1,400
20-64
Source: IMF
berg, MSCI
108
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Sri Lanka
Local Currency
LKR
B+/B1
1.8%
MSCI Index
MXLK
2016 P/E
10.9
2016 EPS Growth
6.1%
Trailing P/B
1.4
Beta to FM
0.5
3.2
1.4
No. of Companies
3
1.5
Local Index
CSEALL
MktCap ($bn)
18.8
No. of Companies
288
3M ADTV ($mn)
5.6

MSCI Sri Lanka, $
220
MSCI FM, $
14,000
2015
6.5
3,768
21.1
3.2
-2.0
-5.9
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
200
180
160
140
2016
6.5
4,061
21.3
3.6
-2.0
-6.4
2017
6.5
4,403
21.4
5.0
-2.0
-6.2
120
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
100
2,000
80
60
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jan-10
40

Sector
MSCI Sri Lanka

John Keells Hldg
Commercial Bk
Ceylon Tobacco
Dfcc Bank Plc
Ceylinco Insuran
Distilleries Co
Dialog Axiata Pl
Central Finance
Asiri Hospitals
Access Engineeri
Bukit Darah Plc
Ceylon Cold Stor
Cargills Ceylon
Ct Holdings Plc
Citizen Dev Bus
Carson Cumberbat
Cic Holdings Plc
Aitken Spence H
Industrials
Financials
Cons. Staples
Financials
Financials
Cons. Staples
Telecoms
Financials
Healthcare
Industrials
Cons. Staples
Cons. Staples
Cons. Staples
Cons. Staples
Financials
Cons. Staples
Materials
Cons. Disc.
35
300
30
250
Financials
10
8
-4
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
-2
Cons.
Staples
Jan
10
64%
Jul-14
Apr-15
Nov-15
Sep-14
Jul-13
Feb-14
Dec-12
Oct-11
May-12
10
Mar-11
50
15
30%
Jul-13
15
20
4
Industrials
Jan
100
Frontier
20
25
6%
Jul-12
150
25
Jan
Jan-10
$ Performance
1M
3M
-11.8
-16.8
-29.8
10.6
1.4
11.0
24
1.8
-13.2
-15.5
-27.9
12.4
1.2
9.2
11
63.7
-9.2
-20.6
-34.5
8.1
1.6
17.4
10
30.1
-0.7
-1.8
-18.8
na
24.6
na
3
6.1
-7.4
-16.2
-37.4
10.4
0.9
7.6
2
-10.0
-2.1
-18.6
na
1.7
na
1
-11.5
-22.4
-14.2
8.1
1.0
11.4
5
-3.8
-11.6
-31.7
7.8
1.7
na
5
-10.0
-10.5
-17.7
5.5
0.9
14.9
1
-0.5
-2.5
-2.3
17.3
3.9
19.7
2
-5.6
-9.1
-24.6
8.4
1.4
14.3
6
-21.0
-34.7
-48.2
na
1.7
na
0
1.2
5.4
44.2
11.5
3.4
26.4
1
-10.8
-10.1
1.0
na
2.9
na
0
-7.2
-8.8
-15.2
na
1.4
na
0
-9.3
-13.5
-15.3
5.7
1.1
15.6
1
-7.7
-16.5
-30.3
na
1.5
na
0
-4.3
-11.3
3.6
na
1.2
na
1
-9.8
-12.3
-30.5
8.3
1.2
11.3
4
-
Sri Lanka
Jan
200
Aug-10
3MADTV
($mn)
1.5
0.8
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.0
1.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
Sri Lanka 3M ADTV ($mn)
350
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
1,433
911
434
89
146
120
116
67
49
46
38
35
30
30
29
17
15
15
14
Jul-11
MktCap
($mn)
3,194
1,276
770
1,265
276
222
454
576
164
187
153
283
280
257
165
32
436
61
140
Jul-10
MXLK
JKH SL
COMB SL
CTC SL
DFCC SL
CINS SL
DIST SL
DIAL SL
CFIN SL
ASIR SL
AEL SL
BUKI SL
CCS SL
CARG SL
CTHR SL
CDB SL
CARS SL
CIC SL
AHUN SL
Name
Jan
Ticker
109
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
14,000
20-64
65+
% of total exports
0.35
12,000
4
3.5
0.3
10,000
0.25
8,000
0.2
6,000
0.15
3
2.5
2
1.5
0.1
4,000
0.05
2,000
0.5
UAE
Russia
Belgium
Germany
Italy
UK
USA
EU
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
India
Euro Area
Source: UN
25
Source: IMF
Figure 507: Sri Lanka - rupee
CPI (average % YoY)

-12
LKR vs $
200.0
-8
15
-6
10
-4
0
20
150.0
40
60
100.0
80
100
50.0
-2
140
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
120
Stronger
0.0
2004
Sri Lanka REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
-10
20
LKR vs EUR
Source: IMF
10

Real GDP (% YoY)
7
6
8.0 8.2
7.7
6.8
6.2
6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
6.3
6.0
5.4
7.3 7.4
3.5
Source: IMF
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
-4
2004
2004
-2
Source: IMF
berg, MSCI
110
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Tunisia
Local Currency
TND
N/Ba3
0.7%
MSCI Index
MXTN
2016 P/E
11.1
2016 EPS Growth
14.6%
Trailing P/B
2.2
Beta to FM
0.1
1.4
0.6
No. of Companies
2
0.1
Local Index
TUSISE
MktCap ($bn)
7.6
No. of Companies
56
3M ADTV ($mn)
1.6

MSCI Tunisia, $
160
MSCI FM, $
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
140
120
9,000
2015
1.0
3,985
11.1
4.4
-8.5
-5.7
2016
3.0
3,972
11.2
4.0
-7.0
-4.0
2017
4.0
4,024
11.3
3.9
-6.2
-3.2
100
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
80
1,000
60
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jan-10
40

Ticker
MXTN
BT TU
BIAT TU
SFBT TU
TJARI TU
PGH TU
STB TU
UIB TU
AB TU
BH TU
STAR TU
MAG TU
ARTES TU
MNP TU
UBCI TU
BNA TU
TRE TU
AST TU
ATB TU
Name
MSCI Tunisia
Banq Tunisie
Banq Intl Arabe
Soc Frigorifique
Attijari Bank
Poulina Group
Soc Tunisienne B
Union Intl Banq
Amen Bank
Banq De L'Habita
Soc Tunsienne D'
Societe Magasin
Artes
Soc Nouvelle Mai
Union Bancaire
Banque Natl Agri
Tunis Re
Cie D'Assur-Astr
Arab Tunisian Bk
MktCap
($mn)
1,372
Financials
721
Financials
654
Cons. Staples
1,401
Financials
519
Financials
434
Financials
411
Financials
302
Financials
263
Financials
219
Financials
189
Cons. Disc.
140
Cons. Disc.
136
Cons. Disc.
132
Financials
255
Financials
180
Financials
89
Financials
79
Financials
212
Sector

Tunisia 3M ADTV ($mn)
$ Performance
1M
3M
4.5
0.0
-11.1#N/A N/A
2.2
na
4
0.7
7.0
2.8
-11.4
na
2.3
na
2
61.1
2.0
-3.2
-8.4
na
1.9
na
2
38.9
20.2
20.1
16.5
na
7.6
na
2
9.2
3.9
1.3
na
2.7
na
2
-2.0
-4.3
-13.9
na
1.5
na
2
-4.2
-8.7
41.5
7.4
na
na
1
14.2
18.0
21.4
na
1.1
na
1
-7.5
-15.8
-16.5
na
0.8
na
1
30.4
39.7
83.6
na
0.9
na
1
6.5
2.4
5.6
na
1.3
na
1
12.5
-0.7
-26.0
na
79.1
na
1
20.0
16.4
-9.1
na
2.2
na
1
-3.4
-5.3
-23.0
na
3.9
na
1
0.0
4.2
-4.2
na
1.8
na
1
9.9
-10.1
43.8
na
0.6
na
1
1.5
0.7
-2.4
na
1.4
na
1
-3.1
-7.3
-30.9
na
1.6
na
0
3.2
-0.1
-10.1
na
0.9
na
1
-
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
18
16
12
10
25
15
10
8
6
4
2
n/a
Financials
-2
100%
14
20
-4
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
Jan
Jul-14
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
Jul-10
1
0
3MADTV
($mn)
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
Jan
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
586
360
227
1,401
519
434
386
302
263
219
189
140
136
132
125
91
89
79
76
111
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
9,000
20-64
65+
% of total exports
0.8
8,000
12
0.7
7,000
10
0.6
6,000
0.5
5,000
0.4
4,000
0.3
3,000
0.2
2,000
0.1
1,000
UK
Spain
Algeria
USA
Libya
Germany
France
EU
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
Source: UN
Source: IMF
Figure 520: Tunisia - dinar
CPI (average % YoY)

-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-4
TND vs $
2.5
TND vs EUR
Tunisia REER (Dec 07 = 100)

0
Weaker
20
2.0
40
1.5
60
1.0
80
-5
-3
-2
-1
Source: IMF

7
16
14
12
10
6.0
5.7
6.3
4.5
4.0
3.1
4.0
3.7
2.3 2.3
1.0
Source: IMF
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
-1.9
2007
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
-3
2006
-2
-4
2005
-1
2004
0
-2
2006
2005
2004
4.6
3.0
2.6
2017E
Real GDP (% YoY)
2016E
18
140
2015E
120
Stronger
0.0
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
100
0.5
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
2018E
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
Italy
Euro Area
Source: IMF
berg, MSCI
112
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Vietnam
Local Currency
VND
BB-/B1
4.1%
MSCI Index
MXVN
2016 P/E
16.5
2016 EPS Growth
14.1%
Trailing P/B
2.3
Beta to FM
0.9
20.7
3.3
No. of Companies
9
11.7
Local Index
VNINDEX
MktCap ($bn)
48.2
No. of Companies
307
3M ADTV ($mn)
74.4

MSCI Vietnam, $
160
MSCI FM, $
70,000
2015
6.5
2,171
91.6
2.5
0.7
-6.9
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
140
120
2016
6.4
2,321
92.5
3.6
-0.9
-6.7
2017
6.0
2,458
93.5
3.9
-0.2
-5.9
100
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
80
10,000
60
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jan-10
40

Ticker
MXVI
VIC VM
MSN VM
VCB VM
STB VM
HPG VM
BID VM
BVH VM
HNG VM
GAS VM
VNM VM
FPT VM
EIB VM
MBB VM
SSI VM
HT1 VM
MWG VM
CTG VM
CTD VM
Name
MSCI Vietnam
Vingroup Jsc
Masan Group Corp
Bank For Foreign
Sacombank
Hoa Phat Grp Jsc
Bank For Investm
Bao Viet Holding
Hoang Anh Gia La
Petrovietnam Gas
Viet Nam Dairy P
Fpt Corp
Vietnam Export-I
Military Commerc
Saigon Securitie
Hatien 1 Cement
Mobile World Inv
Vietnam Js Comm
Coteccons Jsc
MktCap
($mn)
20,725
Financials
4,007
Cons. Staples
2,439
Financials
4,971
Financials
918
Materials
908
Financials
2,588
Financials
1,564
Cons. Staples
491
Utilities
3,346
Cons. Staples
6,272
IT
831
Financials
582
Financials
1,038
Financials
443
Materials
368
Cons. Disc.
476
Financials
2,885
Industrials
289
Sector

200
Vietnam 3M ADTV ($mn)
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
3,295
1,160
857
388
242
175
127
121
131
94
3,218
644
437
389
318
305
248
224
184
3MADTV
($mn)
11.7
2.9
1.4
1.6
0.4
1.6
1.1
0.9
0.4
0.9
3.7
2.7
0.1
0.6
2.0
0.1
0.6
0.6
0.3
$ Performance
1M
3M
-4.6
-9.4
-13.4
16.1
2.3
12.5
51
4.1
6.0
4.1
20.9
17.5
4.0
15.7
9
34.7
-5.9
-0.7
-15.6
20.3
3.4
na
7
25.9
-4.7
-10.8
7.8
18.0
2.4
13.9
6
12.1
-4.6
-17.0
-26.5
31.8
0.9
3.1
6
7.3
-3.6
-12.1
-19.8
5.4
1.4
24.0
9
5.5
-17.8
-30.1
-7.2
13.0
1.4
11.6
4
3.9
-4.3
-14.5
40.0
25.2
2.8
10.4
3
3.8
-45.8
-45.0
-55.0
na
0.9
na
0
3.7
8.8
-15.5
-51.4
9.5
1.8
20.4
7
3.0
-7.5
-1.9
27.4
17.2
7.3
37.6
10
-2.7
-5.3
7.0
8.4
2.2
25.6
10
-2.4
-10.5
-29.5
33.8
0.9
2.7
3
4.2
3.5
-3.7
8.3
1.0
12.3
8
-6.9
-13.3
-3.3
9.3
1.5
14.3
2
-1.0
0.2
23.5
10.0
1.8
17.2
4
-8.3
-0.1
-30.8
7.3
4.7
43.7
6
-5.8
-17.2
-12.1
12.9
1.2
9.7
4
-8.1
11.2 119.4
8.1
2.2
23.0
2
-

Vietnam
20
40
35
10
5
Materials
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
Jan
Jul-14
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Utilities
Jan
62%
Jul-11
15
Cons.
Staples
30%
Jul-10
10
20
Financials
5%
Jan
50
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
10
15
25
15
100
20
30
Frontier
3%
150
25
113
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
70,000
20-64
65+
% of total exports
0.25
30
0.2
25
60,000
50,000
40,000
0.15
30,000
0.1
20
15
10
Source: UN
Source: IMF
Figure 533: Vietnam - dong
25
CPI (average % YoY)

-12
-10
20
15
30000.0
-6
25000.0
-2
10
5
15000.0
10000.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Stronger
0.0
160
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
Vietnam REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
5000.0
2004
VND vs EUR
20000.0
0
4
VND vs $
35000.0
-8
-4
Source: IMF

40
Malaysia
Australia
Hong Kong
China
USA
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
Germany
Korea
Japan
Euro Area
0.05
10,000
EU
20,000
Real GDP (% YoY)
9
8
35
7.8 7.5
30
7.0 7.1
5.7 5.4
25
6.4 6.2
5.2 5.4
6.0
6.5 6.4
6.0 6.0
20
15
10
Source: IMF
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2004
Source: IMF
berg, MSCI
114

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Frontier Pt2

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Renaissance Capital

Figure 407: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100)

Figure 408: Economic outlook

Real GDP (% YoY)

Figure 409: Index and stock data

Figure 410: 3MADTV, $mn

Morocco 3M ADTV ($mn)

Figure 411: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x)

Figure 412: MSCI sector weights

Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI

Figure 414: Export destinations, total $23bn

Value ($bn), 2014, RHS

Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS

CPI (average % YoY)

Morocco REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel

Change in lending as % of GDP

Real GDP (% YoY)

Figure 420: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100)

Figure 421: Economic outlook

Real GDP (% YoY)

Figure 422: Index and stock data

Figure 423: 3MADTV, $mn

Figure 424: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x)

Nigeria 3M ADTV ($mn)

Figure 425: MSCI sector weights

Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI

Figure 427: Export destinations, total $93bn

Value ($bn), 2014, RHS

Nigeria REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel

Change in lending as % of GDP

Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS

Real GDP (% YoY)

Figure 434: Economic outlook

Real GDP (% YoY)

Figure 432: Key data

Figure 436: 3MADTV, $mn

Figure 438: MSCI sector weights

Figure 437: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x)

Oman 3M ADTV ($mn)

Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI

Figure 440: Export destinations, total $54bn

Value ($bn), 2014, RHS

Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS

CPI (average % YoY)

Change in lending as % of GDP

Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel

Figure 443: Bank lending growth vs GDP

Oman REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Figure 447: Economic outlook

Real GDP (% YoY)

Figure 445: Key data

Figure 448: Index and stock data

Figure 449: 3MADTV, $mn

Figure 451: MSCI sector weights

Figure 450: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x)

Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI

Figure 453: Export destinations, total $27bn

Value ($bn), 2014, RHS

CPI (average % YoY)

Pakistan REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel