EMEA pt2

Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Qatar
Figure 137: Key data
Local Currency
QAR
S&P / Moody's Rating
AA/Aa2
Weight in MSCI EM (%)
1.0%
MSCI Index
MXQA
2016 P/E
10.2
2016 EPS Growth
11.1%
Trailing P/B
1.6
Beta to em
0.0
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
98.5
MSCI free float MktCap, $bn
31.4
No. of Companies
13
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
49.3
Local Index
PX
MktCap ($bn)
115.3
No. of Companies
20
3M ADTV ($mn)
65.1
Figure 138: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100)

MSCI Qatar, $
220
MSCI EM, $
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
CPI (year-end, %YoY)
C/A balance (% of GDP)
Government balance (% of GDP)
200
180
160
140
2015
2016
2017
4.7
4.9
4.2
78,829 73,725 77,857
2.4
2.6
2.7
1.6
2.3
2.9
5.0
-4.5
-2.7
4.5
-1.5
-2.5
120
100
80
60
Jan-16
Jul-15
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
40
Figure 140: 3MADTV, $mn

250
Figure 139: Economic outlook
Figure 141: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x)
Qatar 3M ADTV ($mn)
MSCI Qatar 3M ADTV ($mn)
Qatar
20
EM
18
200
16
150
14
100
12
10
50
Figure 143: Changes in consensus earnings estimates, past 12 mths

2015
140
120
Telecoms
110
Energy
100
Utilities
90
2016
2017
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
80
Apr-15
69%
Industrials
Mar-15
13%
130
Feb-15
9%
Financials
Jan-15
5% 4%
May-15
Figure 142: MSCI sector weights
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
49
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Figure 144: Index and stock data
Ticker
MXQA
QNBK QD
IQCD QD
MARK QD
ERES QD
QATI QD
CBQK QD
ORDS QD
QGTS QD
QEWS QD
QIBK QD
DHBK QD
VFQS QD
BRES QD
QNNS QD
QIIK QD
GISS QD
AHCS QD
UDCD QD
MERS QD
MRDS QD
Name
MSCI Qatar
Qatar National B
Industries Qatar
Masraf Al Rayan
Ezdan Holding Gr
Qatar Insurance
Commercial Bank
Ooredoo Qsc
Qatar Gas Transp
Qatar Electricit
Qatar Islamic Ba
Doha Bank Qsc
Vodafone Qatar
Barwa Real Estat
Qatar Navigation
Qatar Internatio
Gulf Internation
Aamal Co
United Developme
Al Meera Consum
Mazaya Qatar
Sector
Financials
Industrials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Telecoms
Energy
Utilities
Financials
Financials
Telecoms
Financials
Industrials
Financials
Energy
Industrials
Financials
Cons. Staples
Financials
MktCap FF Mkt Cap

($mn)
($mn)
98,512 31,391
31,501 7,875
16,950 4,237
6,953 3,407
9,690 2,907
4,255 2,085
3,562 1,745
6,907 1,727
3,184 1,543
5,559 1,390
5,517 1,379
2,590 1,269
2,427
971
3,431
858
2,690 2,690
2,682 2,682
2,185 2,185
2,028 2,028
1,790 1,790
1,022 1,022
327
327
3MADTV
($mn)
49.3
7.8
6.0
8.7
2.2
1.1
2.7
2.6
6.0
2.0
3.2
2.6
2.3
3.3
0.8
1.1
9.4
0.4
1.2
0.7
1.2
$ Performance
12MF Trail 12MF # Analyst MSCI
1M
3M
12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
-9.8
-19.3
-26.9
10.5
1.6
15.5
106
1.00
-6.9
-10.2
-17.2
9.4
1.9
18.8
13
25.1
-7.3
-17.1
-31.6
12.2
1.9
14.8
12
13.5
-8.5
-21.9
-24.6
11.8
2.2
18.6
7
10.9
-18.1
-31.8
-8.3
na
1.2
na
0
9.3
-0.4
-9.8
9.7
12.2
2.7
na
2
6.6
-11.6
-25.4
-35.3
6.7
0.9
12.2
14
5.6
6.2
0.9
-31.7
12.0
1.2
9.3
14
5.5
-10.0
-16.0
-11.5
10.1
3.1
24.9
2
4.9
-14.4
-13.5
-2.4
12.0
2.9
21.4
5
4.4
-20.0
-28.1
-17.4
9.3
1.5
16.2
11
4.4
-16.4
-26.3
-37.6
7.2
1.0
13.5
14
4.0
-17.0
-27.7
-29.8
na
1.7
-4.2
11
3.1
-19.7
-28.5
-27.1
na
0.7
na
1
2.7
-10.9
-13.7
-14.5
7.6
0.7
9.0
3
0.8
-13.9
-16.7
14.2
2.0
na
2
-16.7
-33.2
-57.2
5.7
2.0
29.2
4
-11.1
-19.2
-15.4
na
1.0
na
0
-9.8
-25.1
-23.7
na
0.6
na
0
-16.2
-20.7
-7.0
14.6
2.8
22.0
3
-19.6
-30.3
-40.8
na
0.9
na
0
-
50
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Figure 145: Population, '000
Figure 146: Export destinations, total $120bn

0-19
65+
% of total exports
2,000
Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
0.3
35
0.25
30
25
0.2
1,500
20
0.15
1,000
CPI (average % YoY)

-10
-5
10
5.5
5.0
10
15
0
-5
4.0
25
3.5
Thailand
Singapore
China
India
100
120
Stronger
140
26.2
19.2
19.6
18.0 17.7
13.4
12.0
7.5
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2005
4.9 4.6 4.0 4.7 4.9 4.2

3.6
2004
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
10
2012
10
2011
15
2010
15
2009
20
2008
20
2007
80
30
25
2006
60
2007
Real GDP (% YoY)
25
2005
40
Figure 150: Real GDP % change, YoY
Change in lending as % of GDP
2004
0
20
2006
Figure 149: Bank lending growth vs GDP
Qatar REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
3.0
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
35
QAR vs EUR
4.5
20
30
-10
QAR vs $
6.0
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
15
2004
Japan
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
2015
Figure 148: Qatar - riyal
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS
30
Taiwan
Euro Area
UAE
EU
0.05
Figure 147: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP
10
Korea
500
20
15
0.1
2018E
2,500
20-64
51
Jun-08
Mar-12
-38
0
-39
-20
-40
-40
-41
Figure 155: Trade balance
Trade balance, $bn

700
25
20
15
10
Nov-15
20
Nov-15
-37
Oct-15
40
Oct-15
-36
Oct-15
60
Sep-15
-35
Sep-15
80
Aug-15
Money Supply (M1), % YoY
Aug-15
Figure 153: Manufacturing PMI
Jul-15
Jul-15
0.5
Jun-15
Jun-15
1.5
May-15
May-15
2.5
Jan-05
Aug-05
Mar-06
Oct-06
May-07
Dec-07
Jul-08
Feb-09
Sep-09
Apr-10
Nov-10
Jun-11
Jan-12
Aug-12
Mar-13
Oct-13
May-14
Dec-14
Jul-15
CPI, % YoY
Apr-15
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Figure 151: CPI (%YoY) and central bank policy rates (%)
Jan-08
Jun-08
Nov-08
Apr-09
Sep-09
Feb-10
Jul-10
Dec-10
May-11
Oct-11
Mar-12
Aug-12
Jan-13
Jun-13
Nov-13
Apr-14
Sep-14
Feb-15
Jul-15
Feb-15
Sep-14
Apr-14
Nov-13
Jun-13
Trade balance, EUR bn
Jan-13
Aug-12
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Oct-11
May-11
Dec-05
Jun-06
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
100
Dec-10
Jul-10
Feb-10
Sep-09
30
Apr-09
Nov-08
Strategy
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Figure 152: Credit growth

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Credit growth, % YoY
Figure 154: Producer prices, %YoY

-34
PPI, % YoY
Figure 156: Retail sales (%YoY)
Consumer confidence index
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
52
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Russia
MSCI Russia, $
160
MSCI EM, $
2015
-3.8
8,447
146.3
13.5
5.0
-5.7
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
120
2016
-0.6
8,058
146.3
8.5
5.4
-3.9
2017
1.0
8,949
146.3
6.0
5.7
-2.2
100
80
60
Jan-16
Jul-15
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jul-10
40

3000
140
Jan-10

Local Currency
RUB
BB+/Ba1
3.6%
MSCI Index
MXRU
2016 P/E
5.7
2016 EPS Growth
6.7%
Trailing P/B
0.5
Beta to em
1.3
270.6
113.2
No. of Companies
20
419.5
Local Index
INDEXCF
MktCap ($bn)
338.0
No. of Companies
50
3M ADTV ($mn)
477.3
Russia 3M ADTV ($mn)
MSCI Russia 3M ADTV ($mn)
Russia
16
EM
14
2500
12
2000
10
1500
8
6
1000
4
500
90
Telecoms
80
Utilities
70
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
60
Aug-15
17%
59%
100
Jul-15
9%
2017
110
Jun-15
Cons.
Staples
Materials
2016
120
Apr-15
Financials
Mar-15
1%
Feb-15
Energy
Jan-15
8%
2015
130
6%
May-15
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
53
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Ticker
MXRU
GAZP RX
LKOH RX
SBER RX
MGNT LI
NVTK LI
GMKN RX
TATN RX
VTBR RX
SNGSP RX
ROSN RX
TRNFP RX
MBT UN
SNGS RX
CHMF RX
ALRS RX
MOEX RX
MFON LI
HYDR RX
SSA LI
RTKM RX
YNDX RM
URKA RM
PHOR RM
POLY RM
IRAO RM
NLMK RM
BANEP RM
PIKK RM
BANE RM
RUAL RM
EONR RM
LSRG RM
MAGN RM
AFLT RM
AKRN RM
LNTA RM
AGRO RM
MVID RM
GCHE RM
TRMK RM
DIXY RM
FEES RM
VSMO RM
NKNC RM
RSTI RM
MTLR RM
PHST RM
Name
MSCI Russia
Gazprom Pao
Lukoil Pjsc
Sberbank Pjsc
Magnit Pjsc-Spon
Novatek Oao-Gdr
Mmc Norilsk Nick
Tatneft Pao-Cls
Vtb Bank Pjsc
Surgutnefteg-Prf
Rosneft Oao
Ak Transneft-Prf
Mobile Teles-Adr
Surgutneftegas
Severstal Pao
Alrosa Pao
Moscow Exchange
Megafon-Regs Gdr
Rushydro Pjsc
Sistema Jsfc-Gdr
Rostelecom
Yandex Nv-A
Uralkali Pjsc
Phosagro Oao-Cls
Polymetal Intern
Inter Rao Ues Pj
Nlmk Ao
Bashneft Pao-Pre
Pik Group Pjsc
Bashneft Pao
United Co Rusal
E.On Russia Jsc
Lsr Group Pjsc
Magnitogorsk
Aeroflot
Acron
Lenta -Reg S
Ros Agro-Gdr Reg
M Video Pao
Cherkizovo Group
Tmk Pao
Dixy Group Pjsc
Federal Grid
Vsmpo-Avisma Cor
Nizhnekamsknefte
Rosseti Pjsc
Mechel
Pharmstandard Pj
Sector
Energy
Energy
Financials
Cons. Staples
Energy
Materials
Energy
Financials
Energy
Energy
Energy
Telecoms
Energy
Materials
Materials
Financials
Telecoms
Utilities
Telecoms
Telecoms
IT
Materials
Materials
Materials
Utilities
Materials
Energy
Cons. Disc.
Energy
Materials
Utilities
Financials
Materials
Industrials
Materials
Cons. Staples
Cons. Staples
Cons. Disc.
Cons. Staples
Energy
Cons. Staples
Utilities
Materials
Materials
Utilities
Materials
Healthcare
MktCap
($mn)
270,607
42,049
28,185
27,524
18,752
25,186
18,479
9,377
12,308
4,568
37,223
3,963
7,274
17,631
6,790
5,821
2,798
7,223
3,289
2,808
2,918
4,184
6,656
4,601
3,458
1,866
5,032
697
1,870
3,922
4,553
2,539
856
2,735
739
1,887
2,763
1,609
594
644
705
459
974
1,934
949
982
338
532
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
113,174
20,951
16,570
13,551
9,965
7,410
6,453
6,008
4,799
3,962
4,052
3,886
3,637
3,445
1,712
1,461
1,372
1,088
996
961
895
4,027
2,386
2,113
1,600
757
728
697
628
551
468
413
358
348
302
290
276
274
251
250
227
206
193
188
179
134
110
90
3MADTV
($mn)
419.5
65.6
37.7
144.3
28.6
17.0
31.9
7.9
17.7
15.3
17.8
6.4
5.0
9.6
8.6
6.9
8.2
5.9
3.6
3.0
2.3
0.9
5.4
0.4
0.2
1.4
4.4
0.5
0.2
0.7
0.2
2.6
0.1
6.0
3.9
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.8
0.0
$ Performance
1M
3M
-3.9
-12.5
-3.8
5.7
0.5
6.0
282
3.6
-6.7
-16.2
-15.3
2.9
0.3
9.1
14
18.3
1.7
-9.1
-19.5
5.8
0.3
5.6
16
14.7
-9.6
-7.6
45.6
6.0
0.9
14.2
19
12.0
0.7
-12.8
5.2
19.5
7.1
35.0
15
9.0
-0.1
-9.6
16.0
11.1
4.6
29.5
21
6.6
-8.2
-21.1
-29.5
7.6
3.8
52.7
4
5.6
-3.7
-17.5
6.1
6.2
1.1
14.1
16
5.3
-12.3
-15.3
-1.3
4.8
1.0
5.9
5
4.3
-2.8
-12.0
0.6
7.9
na
6.2
16
3.6
-0.5
-11.7
6.9
6.7
1.0
11.0
14
3.6
-2.1
9.5
32.7
8.2
na
10.0
8
3.4
13.2
1.9
-11.0
9.2
3.0
34.8
19
3.2
3.1
-9.8
17.1
7.7
na
6.2
15
3.1
-5.0
-28.8
-11.7
7.8
2.6
28.2
5
1.5
3.8
-3.7
-28.4
6.4
2.9
34.1
19
1.3
-5.3
-13.6
22.5
10.5
2.3
19.0
13
1.2
0.4
-9.7
-21.3
11.2
2.9
30.9
20
0.9
-7.5
-15.5
15.9
6.1
0.4
6.0
12
0.9
-8.3
-14.8
36.8
7.5
na
7.3
14
0.9
-11.1
-20.7
-8.4
11.4
0.9
7.5
17
0.8
-13.8
-13.6
-12.7
22.9
4.8
18.5
20
-9.3
-6.4
-10.6
5.7
2.2
57.4
11
-8.9
-13.8
8.1
7.5
5.7
51.8
4
-5.6
-7.3
-9.2
12.7
3.7
21.5
15
20.8
-5.7
75.0
3.6
0.3
8.7
11
-3.5
-29.2
-35.0
7.7
0.9
11.5
6
-1.7
-5.9
43.0
3.1
1.2
18.9
13
-6.7
-17.4
4.4
18.9
5.7
22.4
1
-3.2
-10.8
26.8
4.2
1.2
23.5
19
-2.2
-25.4
-53.7
5.7
2.6
20.1
13
-9.2
-14.6
15.4
7.9
1.9
20.5
10
-10.2
-10.3
16.1
5.4
0.9
17.2
2
-1.8
-31.0
28.9
5.7
0.7
11.1
5
-14.3
-9.9
23.3
3.4
na
-99.5
13
-10.9
-3.6
38.1
4.8
1.8
22.5
13
-17.3
-24.5
1.0
13.1
1.3
33.4
1
-1.1
45.9 177.1
6.3
2.4
25.0
0
-7.2
-6.2
62.4
9.1
4.0
28.9
9
1.7
7.4
44.6
5.8
1.1
na
1
-17.0
-13.7
4.5
5.1
0.6
5.0
3
-12.7
-28.4
-33.1
9.5
1.1
9.7
18
-5.8
-21.9
6.8
1.7
0.1
5.3
8
-0.9
-7.2
11.4
na
2.7
na
1
-3.4
2.4
60.1
na
0.9
na
2
-4.6
-15.8
2.9
1.6
0.1
4.8
6
-9.7
-13.2
29.3
na
na
na
1
-5.9
-19.0
1.8
na
na
na
0
-
54
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
100,000
20-64
65+
% of total exports
0.6
300
0.5
250
0.4
200
50,000
0.3
150
40,000
0.2
100
0.1
50
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
Korea
Japan
Belarus
Turkey
Italy
Germany
China
Netherlands
Euro Area
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
Figure 168: Russia - rouble
18
EU
CPI (average % YoY)

0
RUB vs $
92
16
14
12
10
8
6
RUB vs EUR
Russia REER (Dec 07 = 100)

60
Weaker
82
70
72
62
80
52
90
42
32
100
22
10
120
12
110
Stronger
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
12
2004
12
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
Real GDP (% YoY)
10
10
7.2
8.2 8.5
6.4
5.2
4.5 4.3
3.4
1.3
1.0 1.5
0.6
0
-0.6
-2
2018E
2017E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
-7.8
2008
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
-8
-10
2004
-8
-10
-3.8
2007
-6
2006
-6
2005
-4
-4
2004
-2
2016E
55
25
20
15
10
0
Trade balance, $bn
25
Apr-15
Industrial volumes, %YoY
Nov-15
Manufacturing PMI (SA) (50= no change)
Sep-14
Jul-13
Feb-14
Dec-12
Oct-11
20%
May-12
Mar-11
Jan-10
30%
Aug-10
10
Jun-09
12
Apr-08
50%
Nov-08
14
Feb-07
16
Sep-07
60%
Key policy rate, %
Jan-05
Aug-05
Mar-06
Oct-06
May-07
Dec-07
Jul-08
Feb-09
Sep-09
Apr-10
Nov-10
Jun-11
Jan-12
Aug-12
Mar-13
Oct-13
May-14
Dec-14
Jul-15
18
Jul-06
CPI, % YoY
Dec-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-06
Jun-06
Nov-06
Apr-07
Sep-07
Feb-08
Jul-08
Dec-08
May-09
Oct-09
Mar-10
Aug-10
Jan-11
Jun-11
Nov-11
Apr-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Jul-13
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
54
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
46
45
44
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Strategy
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016

40%
10%
0%
-10%
Figure 174: Industrial output and producer prices (%YoY)

15
PPI, % YoY (RHS)
40
10
30
0
20
-5
10
-10
0
-15
-10
-20
-20
Retail Sales, % YoY
20
15
10
-10
-5
-15
56
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
South Africa
Local Currency
ZAR
BBB-/Baa2
6.8%
MSCI Index
MXZA
2016 P/E
14.8
2016 EPS Growth
8.7%
Trailing P/B
2.3
Beta to em
1.1
279.6
214.5
No. of Companies
54
986.4
Local Index
JALSH
MktCap ($bn)
639.5
No. of Companies
164
3M ADTV ($mn)
1364.0

MSCI South Africa, $
140
MSCI EM, $
2015
1.4
5,784
54.9
5.5
-4.3
-4.1
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
120
100
80
2016
1.3
5,859
55.7
5.7
-4.5
-3.7
2017
2.1
6,014
56.6
5.6
-4.5
-3.4
60
40
20
Jan-16
Jul-15
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10

2500
South Africa 3M ADTV ($mn)
MSCI South Africa 3M ADTV ($mn)
South Africa
19
EM
17
2000
15
1500
13
1000
11

2015
140
120
Energy
110
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
80
Oct-15
Industrials
90
Sep-15
Cons. Staples
Aug-15
31%
2017
100
Jul-15
Materials
Jun-15
Healthcare
8%
Apr-15
7%
Telecoms
Mar-15
34%
2016
130
Feb-15
5%
6%
Financials
5% 4%
Jan-15
Cons. Disc.
May-15
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
500
TRU SJ
GFI SJ
RDF SJ
RMH SJ
MRP SJ
SAP SJ
NEP SJ
NED SJ
LHC SJ
RES SJ
NTC SJ
MND SJ
SPP SJ
RMI SJ
TFG SJ
INL SJ
57
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Ticker
MXZA
NPN SJ
SOL SJ
MTN SJ
SNH SJ
FSR SJ
SBK SJ
REM SJ
BVT SJ
SLM SJ
WHL SJ
APN SJ
SHP SJ
MDC SJ
BAT SJ
VOD SJ
ANG SJ
GRT SJ
BGA SJ
TBS SJ
DSY SJ
TRU SJ
GFI SJ
RDF SJ
RMH SJ
MRP SJ
SAP SJ
NEP SJ
NED SJ
LHC SJ
RES SJ
NTC SJ
MND SJ
SPP SJ
RMI SJ
TFG SJ
INL SJ
MMI SJ
HYP SJ
FFB SJ
IPL SJ
IMP SJ
PFG SJ
PSG SJ
CPI SJ
TKG SJ
BAW SJ
PIK SJ
FFA SJ
CML SJ
LBH SJ
AMS SJ
MSM SJ
TSH SJ
EXX SJ
BTI SJ
SAB SJ
Name
MSCI South Africa
Naspers Ltd-N
Sasol Ltd
Mtn Group Ltd
Steinhoff Int Nv
Firstrand Ltd
Standard Bank Gr
Remgro Ltd
Bidvest Group
Sanlam Ltd
Woolworths Hldgs
Aspen Pharmacare
Shoprite Hldgs
Mediclinic Int
Brait Se
Vodacom Group
Anglogold Ashant
Growthpoint Prop
Barclays Africa
Tiger Brands Ltd
Discovery Ltd
Truworths Intl
Gold Fields Ltd
Redefine Propert
Rmb Holdings Ltd
Mr Price Group
Sappi Ltd
New Europe Prop
Nedbank Group
Life Healthcare
Resilient Reit L
Netcare Ltd
Mondi Ltd
Spar Grp Ltd/The
Rand Merchant In
The Foschini Gro
Investec Ltd
Mmi Holdings Ltd
Hyprop Invest-Ut
Fortress-Inc
Imperial Hldgs
Impala Platinum
Pioneer Foods Gr
Psg Group Ltd
Capitec Bank Hol
Telkom Sa Soc Lt
Barloworld Ltd
Pick'N Pay Store
Fortress-Inc-A
Coronat
Liberty Hldgs
Anglo American P
Massmart Hldgs
Tsogo Sun Holdin
Exxaro Resources
Brit Amer Tobacc
Sabmiller Plc
Sector
Cons. Disc.
Energy
Telecoms
Cons. Disc.
Financials
Financials
Financials
Industrials
Financials
Cons. Disc.
Healthcare
Cons. Staples
Healthcare
Financials
Telecoms
Materials
Financials
Financials
Cons. Staples
Financials
Cons. Disc.
Materials
Financials
Financials
Cons. Disc.
Materials
Financials
Financials
Healthcare
Financials
Healthcare
Materials
Cons. Staples
Financials
Cons. Disc.
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Cons. Disc.
Materials
Cons. Staples
Financials
Financials
Telecoms
Industrials
Cons. Staples
Financials
Financials
Financials
Materials
Cons. Staples
Cons. Disc.
Energy
Cons. Staples
Cons. Staples
MktCap
($mn)
279,632
53,817
17,307
15,347
18,344
15,479
11,255
8,063
7,520
7,923
5,478
7,450
5,152
7,403
5,261
13,390
3,333
3,856
7,532
3,514
5,161
2,585
2,525
2,857
4,928
2,675
2,295
3,158
5,775
2,289
2,764
3,028
7,807
1,965
3,645
1,637
5,759
2,240
1,487
3,101
1,489
1,396
1,895
2,655
3,395
2,123
919
1,785
3,099
1,315
2,010
3,670
1,202
1,506
1,239
102,588
96,833
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
214,529
47,603
14,516
13,355
11,124
8,762
8,012
7,232
6,974
6,015
5,493
5,491
3,937
3,655
3,348
3,323
3,299
3,167
2,867
2,885
2,812
2,465
2,624
2,416
2,321
2,294
2,445
2,322
2,233
2,010
1,969
1,892
1,947
1,828
1,592
1,527
1,538
1,505
1,396
1,467
1,274
1,152
1,031
974
970
932
949
856
858
816
777
718
579
497
486
102,527
55,009
3MADTV
($mn)
986.4
194.5
48.5
76.1
48.6
48.0
37.6
18.2
20.9
24.8
29.4
25.4
17.9
17.7
10.1
30.3
11.9
11.8
16.2
16.5
13.3
14.9
6.6
7.6
9.8
19.9
11.6
11.1
13.2
9.4
4.6
12.2
9.3
7.0
5.7
9.4
7.8
6.6
5.7
7.2
9.5
8.0
5.1
6.3
11.1
5.6
6.4
4.2
5.3
5.7
3.8
7.0
3.2
2.2
2.1
36.4
64.1
$ Performance
1M
3M
-10.9
-23.1
-36.7
13.6
2.3
15.1
571
6.85
-11.4
-15.0
-16.1
32.1
8.4
22.7
18
22.1
-5.0
-16.3
-25.1
10.9
1.5
11.3
15
6.7
-9.7
-25.3
-53.8
9.1
2.0
23.0
18
6.3
-8.7
-22.5
-8.2
13.9
1.6
9.4
8
5.2
-3.4
-24.5
-37.8
10.2
2.7
23.8
15
4.2
-8.7
-32.6
-47.5
7.8
1.3
15.0
15
3.8
-5.4
-21.9
-33.1
13.2
1.8
12.6
6
3.4
3.1
-11.2
-19.4
15.9
3.2
18.3
13
3.2
-7.6
-19.7
-40.0
11.9
2.8
15.5
8
2.9
-12.7
-21.8
-24.2
17.1
6.0
31.6
15
2.6
-19.6
-26.5
-56.9
16.9
3.5
17.9
13
2.5
-5.7
-13.8
-44.6
16.3
4.0
22.2
15
1.9
-3.5
-13.3
-22.1
21.1
2.5
12.5
11
1.7
-7.6
-10.9
54.0
na
1.3
na
1
1.6
-10.5
-16.9
-23.9
14.8
9.2
59.0
18
1.5
14.0
-6.0
-27.4
12.6
1.4
6.8
16
1.5
-8.4
-22.7
-45.2
12.2
1.0
10.6
8
1.5
-5.6
-30.5
-47.9
7.8
1.5
16.8
14
1.4
-12.5
-20.8
-46.3
13.8
4.1
22.5
10
1.4
-10.0
-26.7
-18.5
15.3
3.0
20.1
6
1.3
-1.0
-9.0
-17.4
12.9
5.4
34.0
12
1.2
14.1
19.6
-41.6
17.3
1.0
4.0
15
1.1
-7.5
-29.8
-40.1
9.9
1.0
9.7
7
1.1
-7.9
-27.7
-37.2
9.6
2.3
20.9
4
1.1
-25.1
-35.7
-56.5
15.0
8.4
45.2
14
1.1
3.4
14.6
1.8
8.4
2.4
22.2
6
1.1
-9.8
2.3
6.0
19.0
2.2
8.1
5
1.1
-5.4
-29.0
-46.7
7.9
1.4
15.4
15
1.0
-5.9
-21.9
-41.8
16.9
7.1
38.5
10
0.9
-5.6
-18.7
-4.7
23.2
1.7
9.7
7
0.9
-8.4
-27.3
-37.4
14.7
4.4
25.2
11
0.9
-18.8
-29.8
-9.7
10.4
2.5
21.8
4
0.9
-7.7
-20.9
-29.0
17.6
9.4
47.6
14
0.8
-5.0
-21.4
-33.4
14.7
3.4
20.2
5
0.7
-5.0
-24.4
-47.0
10.7
2.8
24.4
14
0.7
-12.1
-22.9
-25.3
9.2
1.2
13.1
3
0.7
-2.7
-21.5
-47.0
9.0
1.5
11.6
8
0.7
-10.1
-32.5
-33.5
15.6
1.1
8.2
7
0.7
-6.6
-11.2
23.0
27.3
1.0
4.0
5
0.7
-6.5
-43.0
-57.6
7.4
1.4
15.1
12
0.6
9.7
-30.1
-70.1
17.9
0.4
2.5
18
0.5
-22.1
-44.4
-39.2
14.8
3.5
24.8
10
0.5
-21.6
-38.9
0.7
19.1
3.4
na
2
0.5
-17.7
-31.7
-10.6
15.1
4.5
24.9
10
0.5
-5.9
-20.9
-33.4
10.0
1.5
14.3
15
0.4
5.3
-22.1
-43.0
6.9
0.8
10.6
13
0.4
-17.1
-23.9
-28.8
22.3
9.5
33.2
15
0.4
-10.2
-21.0
-39.2
10.9
1.0
8.7
5
0.4
5.0
-29.1
-58.1
12.4
9.7
68.3
7
0.4
-7.9
-27.3
-37.8
7.4
1.6
14.7
8
0.4
9.3
-21.7
-55.5
23.7
1.1
5.1
18
0.3
-17.9
-34.8
-62.3
13.8
3.8
23.0
13
0.3
-6.5
-19.3
-40.6
10.6
2.9
23.5
4
0.2
17.7
-15.9
-61.4
10.0
0.6
5.5
12
0.2
-2.1
-7.1
-3.7
17.1
12.0
74.9
26
-0.7
-1.4
11.0
25.8
4.4
14.0
23
-
58
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
45,000
20-64
65+
% of total exports
0.25
40,000
18
16
35,000
0.2
30,000
14
12
0.15
25,000
20,000
10
8
0.1
15,000
0.05
10,000
5,000
CPI (average % YoY)

-7
19
12
-6
10
-5
-4
13
-3
11
-2
Weaker
UK
India
Namibia
Germany
Botswana
ZAR vs $
ZAR vs EUR
South Africa REER (Dec 07 = 100)
60
17
70
15
80
90
100
110
120
130
Stronger
140
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
2018E
2017E
2016E
2014
2015E
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
-1
2004
20
Japan
Figure 188: South Africa - rand
14
China
EU
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
USA
Euro Area
Real GDP (% YoY)
6
5
15
5.3
5.6
5.4
4.6
4
10
3.0 3.2
3.2
2.2 2.2
2.5
1.5 1.4 1.3
2.1
0
-5
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
-1.5
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
-2
2004
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
-10
2010
-1
59
Trade balance, $bn 3mma

20
-2
-5
-3
-10
May-15
Oct-14
-1
May-15
Oct-14
Mar-14
10
Mar-14
Jan-13
15
Retail Sales, % YoY
Aug-13
Aug-13
Jun-12
Industrial volumes, %YoY
Jan-13
-25
Nov-11
30
Jun-12
-20
Nov-11
35
Apr-11
40
Apr-11
45
Sep-10
50
Sep-10
55
Jul-09
60
Feb-10
Feb-10
Dec-08
-15%
Jul-09
-10%
Dec-08
Oct-07
May-08
5%
Oct-07
May-08
10%
Mar-07
Mar-07
10
Jan-05
Aug-05
Mar-06
Oct-06
May-07
Dec-07
Jul-08
Feb-09
Sep-09
Apr-10
Nov-10
Jun-11
Jan-12
Aug-12
Mar-13
Oct-13
May-14
Dec-14
Jul-15
12
Aug-06
Nov-15
Apr-15
Sep-14
Feb-14
Jul-13
Dec-12
May-12
Oct-11
Mar-11
SARB Policy rate
Jan-06
Nov-15
Apr-15
Sep-14
Feb-14
Jul-13
Dec-12
May-12
Oct-11
Mar-11
Aug-10
Jan-10
Jun-09
Nov-08
Apr-08
Sep-07
CPI, % YoY
Jan-06
Trade balance, $bn
Aug-10
Jan-10
Jun-09
Nov-08
65
Apr-08
Feb-07
Jul-06
Dec-05
14
Sep-07
Feb-07
Jul-06
Dec-05
Aug-06
Dec-05
Jun-06
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Strategy
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016

30%
25%
20%
15%
-5%
0%

15
PPI, % YoY
10
-5
-10
-15
60
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Turkey
MSCI Turkey, $
150
MSCI EM, $
2015
3.0
9,290
77.7
8.0
-4.5
-0.8
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
110
2016
2.9
9,180
78.6
6.5
-4.7
-0.8
2017
3.7
9,594
79.4
6.5
-5.2
-0.8
90
70
50
Jan-16
Jul-15
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jul-10
30

2500
130
Jan-10

Local Currency
TRY
BB+/Baa3
1.5%
MSCI Index
MXTR
2016 P/E
8.0
2016 EPS Growth
17.3%
Trailing P/B
1.2
Beta to em
1.1
119.4
46.3
No. of Companies
25
1026.8
Local Index
XU100
MktCap ($bn)
154.6
No. of Companies
100
3M ADTV ($mn)
1313.8
Turkey 3M ADTV ($mn)
MSCI Turkey 3M ADTV ($mn)
Turkey
16
EM
14
2000
12
1500
10
1000
Jan-16
Dec-15
Materials
Nov-15
Cons. Disc.
Oct-15
14%
Sep-15
Energy
Aug-15
13%
Telecoms
Jul-15
47%
SODA TI
TRKCM TI
Jun-15
8%
AKSEN TI
May-15
Industrials
2017
ALBRK TI
Apr-15
7%
2016
KOZAL TI
Mar-15
Cons.
Staples
6% 5%
2015
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
Feb-15
Financials
Jan-15
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
500
61
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Ticker
MXTR
GARAN TI
AKBNK TI
BIMAS TI
TUPRS TI
TCELL TI
SAHOL TI
KCHOL TI
ISCTR TI
HALKB TI
EKGYO TI
EREGL TI
THYAO TI
AEFES TI
ARCLK TI
YKBNK TI
TAVHL TI
ULKER TI
VAKBN TI
TOASO TI
CCOLA TI
TTKOM TI
FROTO TI
ENKAI TI
PETKM TI
SISE TI
DOCO TI
MGROS TI
ASELS TI
KRDMD TI
TSKB TI
TTRAK TI
AYGAZ TI
TKFEN TI
AKSA TI
ISGYO TI
OTKAR TI
CIMSA TI
PGSUS TI
DOHOL TI
DOAS TI
KOZAL TI
ALBRK TI
AKSEN TI
SODA TI
TRKCM TI
Name
MSCI Turkey
Garanti
Akbank
Bim
Tupras
Turkcell
Sabanci Holding
Koc Holding
Is Bankasi
Halkbank
Emlak Konut
Eregli
Thy
Anadolu Efes Bir
Arcelik
Yapi Kredi
Tav
Ulker
Vakibank
Tofas
Coca-Cola Icecek
Turk Telekom
Ford Oto
Enka
Petkim
Sisecam
Do & Co Ag
Migros
Aselsan
Kardemir
Turkiye Sinai
Turk Traktor Ve
Aygaz As
Tekfen
Aksa
Is Gayrimenkul Y
Otokar
Cimsa
Pegasus
Dogan Holding
Dogus Otomotiv S
Koza Altin
Albaraka Turk
Aksa Enerji Uret
Soda Sanayii
Trakya Cam
Sector
Financials
Financials
Cons. Staples
Energy
Telecoms
Financials
Industrials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Materials
Industrials
Cons. Staples
Cons. Disc.
Financials
Industrials
Cons. Staples
Financials
Cons. Disc.
Cons. Staples
Telecoms
Cons. Disc.
Industrials
Materials
Industrials
Cons. Disc.
Cons. Staples
Industrials
Materials
Financials
Industrials
Utilities
Industrials
Cons. Disc.
Financials
Industrials
Materials
Industrials
Industrials
Cons. Disc.
Materials
Financials
Utilities
Materials
Industrials
MktCap
($mn)
119,363
10,512
9,566
5,166
6,343
7,666
5,829
10,051
6,997
4,313
3,307
3,636
3,407
3,665
3,505
5,323
2,154
2,134
3,179
3,454
2,754
6,316
3,823
5,856
1,786
1,916
970
954
3,069
465
874
1,293
1,026
489
637
423
785
656
577
485
804
638
437
492
1,031
507
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
46,260
5,714
5,161
3,593
3,116
3,002
2,567
2,461
2,398
2,130
1,628
1,440
1,341
1,289
1,195
1,043
960
943
940
849
816
809
755
741
710
659
653
477
473
465
396
323
303
294
266
244
240
239
214
205
199
192
190
184
170
155
3MADTV
($mn)
1,026.8
287.9
69.1
15.2
30.3
17.9
38.7
21.5
67.0
96.5
41.0
21.0
159.0
1.5
8.3
21.2
8.2
5.3
59.9
7.1
6.1
6.0
3.4
4.1
15.4
5.7
1.2
4.0
4.8
11.0
2.7
1.4
1.2
5.4
0.7
2.0
7.4
0.9
11.4
3.0
6.1
4.9
0.9
2.3
1.3
3.9
$ Performance
1M
3M
-4.3
-9.7
-34.0
8.0
1.2
13.1
620
1.48
-0.8
-3.3
-40.3
6.9
1.1
15.1
28
12.3
-1.9
-6.6
-35.4
7.0
1.1
14.1
27
11.2
-7.6
-17.3
-16.0
22.8
10.7
40.0
29
7.7
1.4
-6.1
13.2
8.2
2.6
27.2
30
6.8
-1.8
-14.3
-40.8
10.1
1.7
13.5
28
6.5
-2.8
-9.8
-33.4
6.3
0.9
12.3
23
5.6
0.9
-10.9
-25.0
9.4
1.4
13.4
20
5.4
-4.7
-7.4
-46.1
5.6
0.7
12.0
28
5.2
-6.9
-6.8
-46.8
4.9
0.7
13.0
29
4.6
-5.0
-8.2
-34.2
6.5
1.1
14.2
22
3.5
-4.8
-26.4
-43.1
9.0
0.9
8.3
24
3.1
-4.3
-14.0
-37.2
5.3
0.7
13.1
26
2.9
-7.4
-23.9
-31.7
18.7
1.3
6.7
19
2.7
4.7
-1.4
-17.6
12.3
2.2
16.4
23
2.6
4.6
1.7
-42.0
6.2
0.7
10.7
29
2.3
-8.3
-25.5
-20.5
7.3
2.3
27.2
22
2.1
-3.4
-8.9
-23.8
20.2
5.3
22.0
19
2.0
-6.0
-9.7
-45.9
5.2
0.6
11.0
28
2.0
2.7
8.8
-1.7
13.0
4.7
30.5
26
1.8
-21.3
-14.0
-46.1
17.2
2.2
12.1
24
1.8
-4.7
-14.2
-40.9
9.3
4.7
33.8
30
1.7
0.3
-8.2
-22.8
12.1
4.0
29.1
26
1.6
-3.6
-18.2
-21.7
10.5
1.1
10.5
24
1.6
12.0
20.6
13.7
17.5
2.0
11.3
18
1.5
-6.7
-8.1
-29.0
8.9
0.9
8.5
18
1.4
-4.0
9.1
31.9
20.2
4.5
16.7
9
-13.4
-11.4
-44.8
27.8
6.3
15.0
25
4.6
25.8
23.4
16.8
4.3
16.2
15
-3.8
-16.9
-55.2
9.0
1.0
10.6
17
-3.3
-6.9
-33.1
5.7
1.0
15.8
17
1.9
-2.5
-28.3
12.0
3.6
41.4
19
-1.2
-9.2
-20.6
8.5
1.2
13.6
18
-4.2
-6.4
-44.9
6.0
0.7
11.2
24
-5.5
-4.1
-11.6
9.8
1.6
14.4
6
-4.9
12.9
-14.8
6.6
0.5
11.0
15
4.7
20.4
-18.7
26.4
12.9
37.5
10
-9.5
-11.2
-33.4
8.6
1.7
18.6
20
-9.0
-10.8
-55.3
9.1
1.0
13.0
21
-3.8
-10.5
-39.2
40.7
0.6
3.5
8
-4.1
0.1
-37.4
8.2
1.8
20.8
18
0.3
-23.3
-46.6
4.7
0.9
19.6
4
4.5
2.4
-32.3
na
0.7
9.9
13
-7.1
-10.4
-41.7
16.6
1.9
12.2
14
6.0
-6.0
-1.9
7.5
1.6
17.9
10
-8.6
-15.2
-52.8
8.1
0.6
6.4
20
-
62
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
60,000
20-64
65+
% of total exports
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
20
10
CPI (average % YoY)

-12
TRY vs $
4.0
-10
-8
-6
Spain
Turkey REER (Dec 07 = 100)

40
Weaker
3.5
50
3.0
60
2.5
70
2.0
80
1.5
90
1.0
100
0.5
110
Stronger
0.0
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
-2
2006
2005
-4
2004
TRY vs EUR
120
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
10
20
Russia
Figure 208: Turkey - lira
12
France
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
USA
EU
30
Italy
10,000
40
UK
20,000
50
Iraq
30,000
60
Germany
40,000
70
Euro Area
50,000
80
Real GDP (% YoY)
12
10
15
9.4
9.2 8.8
8.4
6.9
8
6
10
4.7
4.2
2.1
2.9 3.0 2.9
3.7 3.5
0.7
-2
-5
-4
-6
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
-4.8
2004
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
-10
63
-2
-4
-6
-8
20
10
-12
-10
Aug-13
Jan-13
Jun-12
Sep-15
May-15
Oct-14
15
May-15
-5
Retail Sales, % YoY WDA
Mar-14
Jan-15
-10
Sep-14
0
Industrial volumes, %YoY (SWDA)
May-14
C/A balance, $bn
Jan-14
Apr-11
44
Nov-11
46
Sep-13
48
Sep-10
50
May-13
52
Jul-09
54
Feb-10
Manufacturing PMI, SA (50= no change)
Jan-13
Dec-08
0%
Sep-12
10%
May-12
Oct-07
May-08
Jan-12
Mar-07
10
Jan-05
Aug-05
Mar-06
Oct-06
May-07
Dec-07
Jul-08
Feb-09
Sep-09
Apr-10
Nov-10
Jun-11
Jan-12
Aug-12
Mar-13
Oct-13
May-14
Dec-14
Jul-15
12
Jan-06
Key policy rate (%)
Aug-06
Nov-15
Apr-15
Sep-14
Feb-14
Jul-13
Dec-12
May-12
Oct-11
Mar-11
CPI, % YoY
Sep-11
Trade balance, $bn
Aug-10
Jan-10
Jun-09
Nov-08
Apr-08
Sep-07
Feb-07
14
May-11
Jul-06
Dec-05
Jan-11
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
56
Dec-05
Jun-06
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Strategy
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%

25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
PPI, % YoY (RHS)
64
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
UAE
Local Currency
AED
-/Aa2
0.9%
MSCI Index
MXAE
2016 P/E
10.3
2016 EPS Growth
13.4%
Trailing P/B
1.5
Beta to em
0.3
114.2
28.3
No. of Companies
11
98.1
Local Index
ADSMI/DFMGI
MktCap ($bn)
173.1
No. of Companies
97
3M ADTV ($mn)
153.8

MSCI UAE, $
280
MSCI EM, $
180
2015
2016
2017
3.0
3.1
3.3
35,392 36,142 37,737
9.6
9.9
10.1
3.3
3.0
2.7
2.9
3.1
4.8
-5.5
-4.0
-1.8
130
80
Jan-16
Jul-15
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
30

MSCI UAE 3M ADTV ($mn)
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
EM
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
2017
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
2016
Jun-15
May-15
Industrials
Apr-15
Telecoms
60%
Mar-15
13%
Feb-15
Financials
2015
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
Jan-15
UAE
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
UAE 3M ADTV ($mn)
27%
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
230

800
65
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Ticker
Name
MSCI UAE
Etisalat
EMAAR DB
Emaar Prop Pjsc
ADCB DH
Abu Dhabi Commer
DPW DU
Dp World Ltd
FGB DH
First Gulf Bank
ALDAR DH
Aldar Properties
DIB DB
Dubai Islamic
NBAD DH
Natl Bk Of Abu D
EMAARMLS DB Emaar Malls Grou
ARTC DB
Arabtec Holding
DFM DB
Dubai Financial
EMIRATES DB Emirates Nbd Pjs
DU DB
Emirates Integra
CBD DB
Comm Bk Of Dubai
ADIB DH
Abu Dhabi Islami
DIC DB
Dubai Investment
RAKBANK DH Natl Bk Ras Al-K
AIRARABI DB
Air Arabia Pjsc
DAMAC DB
Damac Properties
UNB DH
Union Natl Bk/Ab
ARMX DB
Aramex Pjsc
NBF DH
Natl Bk Fujairah
WAHA DH
Waha Capital
UAB DH
United Arab Bank
DUBAIPAR DB Dubai Parks & Re
NBQ DH
Nat Bk Umm Al Qa
DANA DH
Dana Gas
MASQ DB
Mashreqbank
UPP DB
Union Properties
ADNH DH
Abu Dhabi Nat Ho
CBI DH
Commercial Bank
AGTHIA DH
Agthia Group Pjs
INVESTB DH
Invest Bank
NBS DH
Sharjah Islamic
JULPHAR DH
Gulf Pharmaceuti
DEYAAR DB
Deyaar Developme
BOS DH
Bank Of Sharjah
RAKCEC DH
Ras Al Khaimah C
AJMANBAN DB Ajman Bank Pjsc
AMANAT DB
Amanat Holdings
TAQA DH
Abu Dhabi Nation
NCTH DH
Natl Corp Tou Ho
AMLAK DB
Amlak Finance
ESHRAQ DH
Eshraq Propertie
RAKPROP DH Rak Properties
ADAVIATI DH
Abu Dhabi Aviati
GCEM DH
Gulf Cement Co
EIC DH
Emirates Insuran
ADNIC DH
Abu Dhabi Natl
ALAIN DH
Al Ain Ahlia Ins
DSI DB
Drake & Scull In
NMDC DH
Natl Marine Dred
TABREED DB Tabreed
ARKAN DH
Arkan Building M
NCC DB
National Cement
Sector
MXAE
ETISALAT DH
Telecoms
Financials
Financials
Industrials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Industrials
Financials
Financials
Telecoms
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Industrials
Financials
Financials
Industrials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Cons. Disc.
Financials
Energy
Financials
Financials
Cons. Disc.
Financials
Cons. Staples
Financials
Financials
Healthcare
Financials
Financials
Industrials
Financials
Financials
Utilities
Cons. Disc.
Financials
Financials
Financials
Industrials
Materials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Industrials
Industrials
Industrials
Materials
Materials
MktCap
($mn)
114,186
38,831
9,532
9,141
14,401
12,374
4,709
6,157
10,468
8,114
1,495
2,483
10,592
6,472
4,578
2,958
1,830
2,442
1,461
3,772
2,547
1,144
1,710
1,038
1,812
1,842
1,660
835
3,867
627
681
993
1,142
735
911
712
692
806
657
629
531
677
559
486
316
256
338
217
247
296
245
205
348
195
415
342
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
28,349
7,767
4,671
3,200
2,880
2,475
1,884
1,540
1,361
1,217
733
621
4,134
2,633
1,675
1,538
1,415
1,080
1,068
1,048
1,019
972
856
751
738
737
694
676
675
563
518
484
479
458
444
442
409
380
358
337
321
305
278
267
261
256
237
186
181
180
158
152
142
130
124
123
3MADTV
($mn)
98.1
32.1
18.6
3.7
4.1
8.0
8.9
6.4
1.8
3.2
19.2
2.6
1.2
0.9
0.1
0.8
3.9
0.3
3.7
4.6
1.1
1.1
0.1
1.0
0.1
1.7
0.0
3.0
0.1
2.2
0.2
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.0
0.3
0.6
0.8
1.8
0.2
0.0
7.2
1.7
0.5
0.1
0.0
na
0.0
na
2.5
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
$ Performance
1M
3M
-7.3
-16.4
-23.2
10.2
1.5
13.7
127
0.91
2.8
7.2
63.3
15.4
3.5
18.6
12
27.4
-14.4
-24.2
-27.0
8.2
0.9
11.8
12
16.5
-7.0
-20.0
-13.3
7.0
1.4
17.3
16
11.3
-4.9
-14.2
-11.7
14.8
1.7
10.5
10
10.2
-22.0
-18.2
-31.4
7.7
1.5
17.9
17
8.7
-3.5
-3.5
-7.2
8.6
0.9
10.3
12
6.6
-5.9
-11.6
-12.3
7.4
1.7
22.6
10
5.4
-7.8
-15.2
-36.8
7.1
1.0
13.6
14
4.8
-15.8
-26.8
-17.6
14.5
2.0
13.0
11
4.3
-4.8
-27.0
-56.9 217.9
1.5
0.4
9
2.6
-5.8
-20.3
-40.0
23.3
1.1
5.2
4
2.2
-4.1
-22.2
-22.3
5.7
0.9
16.0
11
2.2
2.0
3.4
12.1
3.2
23.6
10
-4.8
-6.3
0.7
13.1
2.1
16.1
2
-13.2
-18.3
-33.5
6.0
1.1
18.1
6
-17.0
-26.6
-19.3
7.2
0.6
8.1
2
-13.7
-21.3
-33.9
6.0
1.2
18.4
5
-14.2
-14.8
-30.7
8.3
1.1
13.0
14
-0.9
-22.9
54.8
2.6
1.5
45.6
6
-26.6
-39.3
-41.4
4.7
0.6
11.8
10
-8.9
-7.1
-12.2
10.8
1.9
16.1
10
32.1
52.1
17.7
na
1.9
na
0
-8.0
-9.7
-38.4
4.6
0.9
na
3
-10.0
-12.3
-12.0
6.1
2.6
na
1
-4.5
-15.1
51.6
na
1.1
-7.1
3
0.0
6.4
3.7
na
1.5
na
0
-8.3
-6.4
-4.3
9.0
0.3
3.4
4
-5.9
-23.8
-35.4
4.9
0.8
na
1
-17.2
-28.0
-39.2
na
0.5
-0.9
2
-7.4
-9.1
-29.6
na
0.3
na
0
13.5
35.5
26.0
14.5
1.6
na
1
-9.2
-8.6
11.0
14.3
2.8
18.3
10
-15.0
-24.4
-37.7
6.2
0.9
na
1
-6.1
-11.5
-23.3
7.1
0.7
na
1
-0.4
-0.8
-12.9
na
1.2
na
0
-16.5
-25.8
-42.1
na
0.6
na
1
0.0
-10.8
-23.1
6.7
0.7
na
1
-14.5
-15.7
-1.7
7.8
0.9
10.3
6
4.8
21.5
-4.5
11.9
1.9
na
1
1.4
1.3
-2.3
na
0.8
na
0
-6.8
-18.0
-48.8
na
0.6
na
0
8.6
-15.6
-32.1
na
3.0
na
0
-14.4
-31.6
16.7
29.8
1.2
na
1
-9.1
-19.4
-33.3
na
0.6
na
1
-13.0
-19.0
-34.7
na
0.3
na
1
-7.0
2.2
-7.0
na
0.5
na
0
3.2
-2.0
-11.8
na
0.7
na
0
0.0
0.0
-4.0
na
1.7
na
0
0.7
-7.9
-52.3
na
0.9
na
1
0.0
0.0
0.0
na
0.8
na
0
-22.4
-42.7
-56.7
8.0
0.3
3.2
12
-6.8
13.5
-25.9
na
0.4
na
0
-19.8
-14.2
-5.8
7.4
0.2
8.4
3
-3.3
-3.3
-18.7
na
0.8
na
0
0.6
1.7
-22.2
na
0.7
na
0
-
66
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
10,000
20-64
65+
% of total exports
0.1
25
5,000
0.08
20
4,000
0.06
15
3,000
0.04
10
2,000
0.02
1,000
EU
Thailand
India
-1
Figure 228: UAE - dirham
14
Japan
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
Euro Area
6,000
Oman
30
7,000
Singapore
35
0.12
China
0.14
8,000
Korea
40
9,000
Iran
0.16
CPI (average % YoY)

0
AED vs $
6.0
12
10
AED vs EUR
UAE REER (Dec 07 = 100)

90
Weaker
95
5.5
100
10
15
5.0
105
4.5
20
125
Stronger
3.0
130
30
120
3.5
2018E
2017E
2016E
2014
2015E
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
25
2004
115
4.0
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
110
Real GDP (% YoY)
12
10
25
9.8
9.6
7.2
20
15
4.9
4.9
10
3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5
1.6
4.3 4.6
3.2 3.2
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
-5.2
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
-6
2005
-4
-10
2004
-2
-5
2004
67
60
55
50
45
40
International reserves ($bn)

700
80
70
60
50
40
30
Apr-15
Oct-14
-5
Apr-14
-1
Oct-13
0
0
Apr-13
Oct-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Apr-11
10
Oct-10
Apr-10
Money supply (M1), % YoY (RHS)
Oct-09
15
Apr-09
Oct-08
Apr-08
Jan-05
Aug-05
Mar-06
Oct-06
May-07
Dec-07
Jul-08
Feb-09
Sep-09
Apr-10
Nov-10
Jun-11
Jan-12
Aug-12
Mar-13
Oct-13
May-14
Dec-14
Jul-15
20
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Oct-07
Sep-15
Apr-15
Nov-14
Jun-14
Jan-14
Aug-13
Mar-13
Oct-12
May-12
Figure 231: CPI, %YoY
Apr-07
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Dec-11
Jul-11
Feb-11
Sep-10
Apr-10
Nov-09
Jun-09
Jan-09
CPI, % YoY
Jul-13
90
Apr-13
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
65
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Strategy
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
-10%
0%
Figure 234: Dubai airport cargo volumes, %YoY

20
Dubai Airport cargo volume, %YoY
15
10
-10
-5
-15
-20
Figure 236: Consumer confidence index
Consumer confidence Index
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
68

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EMEA pt2

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Renaissance Capital

Figure 138: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100)

Real GDP (% YoY)

Figure 140: 3MADTV, $mn

Figure 139: Economic outlook

Figure 141: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x)

Qatar 3M ADTV ($mn)

MSCI Qatar 3M ADTV ($mn)

Figure 143: Changes in consensus earnings estimates, past 12 mths

Figure 142: MSCI sector weights

MktCap FF Mkt Cap

Figure 146: Export destinations, total $120bn

Value ($bn), 2014, RHS

CPI (average % YoY)

4.9 4.6 4.0 4.7 4.9 4.2

Real GDP (% YoY)

Figure 150: Real GDP % change, YoY

Change in lending as % of GDP

Figure 149: Bank lending growth vs GDP

Qatar REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Figure 148: Qatar - riyal

Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS

Figure 147: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP

Figure 155: Trade balance

Trade balance, $bn

Money Supply (M1), % YoY

Figure 153: Manufacturing PMI

Trade balance, EUR bn

Figure 152: Credit growth

Figure 154: Producer prices, %YoY

Figure 156: Retail sales (%YoY)

Consumer confidence index

Real GDP (% YoY)

Figure 160: 3MADTV, $mn

Figure 159: Economic outlook

Figure 157: Key data

Figure 161: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x)

Russia 3M ADTV ($mn)

MSCI Russia 3M ADTV ($mn)

Figure 163: Changes in consensus earnings estimates, past 12 mths

Figure 162: MSCI sector weights

Figure 166: Export destinations, total $482bn

Value ($bn), 2014, RHS

Figure 167: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP

Figure 168: Russia - rouble

Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS

CPI (average % YoY)

Russia REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Figure 169: Bank lending growth vs GDP

Figure 170: Real GDP % change, YoY

Change in lending as % of GDP

Real GDP (% YoY)

Figure 175: Trade balance

Industrial volumes, %YoY

Manufacturing PMI (SA) (50= no change)

Figure 173: Manufacturing PMI

Key policy rate, %

Figure 172: Credit growth

Figure 174: Industrial output and producer prices (%YoY)

Figure 176: Retail sales (%YoY)

Retail Sales, % YoY

Figure 178: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100)

Real GDP (% YoY)

Figure 180: 3MADTV, $mn