Frontier Pt1

Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Argentina
Figure 237: Key data
Local Currency
ARS
S&P / Moody's Rating
-/Weight in MSCI FM (%)
13.4%
MSCI Index
MXAR
2016 P/E
10.4
2016 EPS Growth
16.9%
Trailing P/B
1.4
Beta to FM
1.5
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
20.6
MSCI free float MktCap, $bn
11.6
No. of Companies
8
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
19.3
Local Index
IBG
MktCap ($bn)
194.5
No. of Companies
70
3M ADTV ($mn)
19.8
Figure 238: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100)

MSCI Argentina, $
200
Figure 239: Economic outlook
MSCI FM, $
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
CPI (year-end, %YoY)
C/A balance (% of GDP)
Government balance (% of GDP)
180
160
140
35,000
2015
2016
2017
0.4
-0.7
0.0 30,000
13,428 13,284 13,386
25,000
43.1
43.6
44.0
19.3
26.4
25.2 20,000
-1.8
-1.6
-1.2
-4.9
-4.8
-5.3 15,000
120
10,000
100
5,000
80
60
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jan-10
40
Figure 240: Index and stock data

Ticker
MXAR
YPF UN
GGAL UR
BMA UN
TEO UN
BFR UN
AGRO UN
PZE UN
GLOB UN
GCLA AR
ALUA AR
PAMP AR
ERAR AR
PATA AR
BHIP AR
TGSU2 AR
LEDE AR
IRCP AR
MOLI AR
Name
MSCI Argentina
Ypf Sa-Adr
Grupo Galici-Adr
Banco Macro -Adr
Telecom Arge-Adr
Bbva Banco F-Adr
Adecoagro Sa
Petrobras Ar-Adr
Globant Sa
Grupo Clarin-B
Aluar Aluminio
Pampa Energia Sa
Siderar-A
Patagonia-B
Banco Hipoteca
Trans Gas Sur-B
Ledesma Saai
Irsa Propiedades
Molinos Rio Plat
Sector
Energy
Financials
Financials
Telecoms
Financials
Cons. Staples
Energy
IT
Cons. Disc.
Materials
Utilities
Materials
Cons. Staples
Financials
Energy
Cons. Staples
Financials
Cons. Staples
MktCap
($mn)
20,595
6,277
3,470
3,496
2,999
3,436
1,414
1,210
1,003
2,454
1,864
1,540
2,484
615
602
920
358
994
1,350
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
11,620
2,824
2,312
2,268
1,342
859
990
423
602
2,454
1,864
1,185
970
615
602
451
358
353
338
3MADTV
($mn)
19.3
8.9
3.3
2.9
1.1
1.3
1.2
0.2
1.8
0.0
0.8
1.6
1.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.3
$ Performance
12MF Trail 12MF # Analyst MSCI
1M
3M
12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
-0.9
-12.8
4.2
9.9
1.4
20.8
54
13.4
-2.0
-23.5
-30.6
9.2
1.0
8.0
11
26.1
0.7
0.4
62.0
10.3
3.6
30.0
5
21.4
6.6
-4.1
59.0
8.4
3.5
31.7
5
20.9
-6.4
-19.4
-20.5
9.5
2.6
24.5
9
12.4
-1.4
-17.2
33.2
11.4
3.8
31.1
3
7.9
-6.1
10.5
48.0
20.5
2.7
8.6
10
4.6
4.9
-2.0
27.4
7.7
1.3
na
2
3.9
-21.6
-13.7 108.5
25.4
6.4
19.1
9
2.8
-13.7
-26.8
50.2
na
4.9
37.3
2
-25.1
-35.0
-20.7
na
3.5
na
1
0.4
-33.3
40.5
25.9
4.2
29.8
2
-15.8
-32.0
-23.9
14.8
1.7
8.5
2
-6.4
-19.2
-31.6
na
4.1
na
0
-9.7
-37.8
-23.4
na
1.7
na
1
-11.9
-32.0
31.3
65.5
6.8
15.5
1
-17.1
-12.9
-3.2
na
3.4
na
0
-7.4
-37.4
1.2
na
12.9
na
0
-14.9
4.7
25.6
na
8.7
na
0
-
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
10
8
Figure 241: 3MADTV, $mn

Argentina 3M ADTV ($mn)
Argentina
14
Figure 243: MSCI sector weights

6
Frontier
5% 3%
12
25
10
20
12%
15
50%
10
30%
Financials
Energy
Telecoms
Cons.
Staples
IT
-2
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
Jan
Jul-14
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
30
Figure 242: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x)
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
69
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Figure 244: Population, '000
Figure 245: Export destinations, total $69bn

0-19
35,000
20-64
65+
% of total exports
Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
0.25
16
30,000
14
0.2
25,000
12
10
0.15
20,000
15,000
0.1
10,000
0.05
5,000
6
4
2
Netherlands
India
Uruguay
Venezuela
Chile
USA
China
EU
Euro Area
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
Source: UN
Figure 246: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP
CPI (average % YoY)
-2
-2
25
20
15
10
-1
14.0
-1
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
2
2
ARS vs EUR
Argentina REER (Dec 07 = 100)

0
Weaker
50
100
150
200
4.0
2.0
Source: IMF
Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel
8.4
8.0
3.1
2.9
0.8
0.1
Source: IMF
0.0 0.1
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
-0.7
2004
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
-2
2006
-2
2005
2004
0.5 0.4
2018E
9.5
8.4
2016E
9.0 9.2
2015E
10
2014
Real GDP (% YoY)
2013
Change in lending as % of GDP
10
300
Figure 249: Real GDP % change, YoY
2012
Figure 248: Bank lending growth vs GDP
250
Stronger
0.0
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
ARS vs $
16.0
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS
30
Source: IMF
Figure 247: Argentina - peso
2017E
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
Brazil
Source: IMF
berg, MSCI
70
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Bahrain
Local Currency
BHD
BBB-/Baa3
Weight in MSCI FM (%)
2.2%
MSCI Index
MXBH
2016 P/E
7.4
2016 EPS Growth
-4.3%
Trailing P/B
1.2
Beta to FM
0.5
6.9
3.1
No. of Companies
3
0.4
Local Index
BHSEASI
MktCap ($bn)
18.3
No. of Companies
41
3M ADTV ($mn)
0.9

MSCI Bahrain, $
160
MSCI FM, $
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
140
120
100
1,400
2015
2016
2017
3.4
3.2
2.8 1,200
23,899 24,507 25,500
1,000
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.6
2.6
1.9
-4.8
-5.9
-5.4
-14.2
-13.9
-12.6
80
60
40
20
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jan-10

Ticker
MXBH
AUB KK
BATELCO BI
ALBH BI
NBB BI
BBK BI
SALAM BI
GFH BI
BMMI BI
BISB BI
BARKA BI
DUTYF BI
CINEMA BI
BHOTEL BI
ABC BI
BCFC BI
ITHMR BI
INVCORP BI
SEEF BI
Name
MSCI Bahrain
Ahli United Bank
Bahrain Telecom
Aluminium Bahrai
Natl Bank Bahr
Bbk Bsc
Al-Salam Bank
Gfh Financial Gr
Bmmi Bsc
Bahrain Islamic
Albaraka Banking
Bahrain Duty Fre
Bahrain Cinema
Gulf Hotel Group
Arab Banking -$
Bahrain Comm Fac
Ithmaar Bank Bsc
Investcorp Bk -$
Seef Properties
Sector
Financials
Telecoms
Materials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Cons. Disc.
Financials
Financials
Cons. Disc.
Cons. Disc.
Cons. Disc.
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
3MADTV
($mn)
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
$ Performance
1M
3M
-1.3
-16.2
-23.9
8.1
1.2#N/A N/A
6
2.2
0.1
-2.9
-10.9
7.5
1.2
na
2
84.9
-5.0
-6.8
-8.5
7.1
1.0
na
2
10.8
-4.3
-20.9
-29.0
na
0.5
-7.7
2
4.3
0.1
-3.5
-10.7
na
2.0
na
2
-10.6
-8.5
-13.8
na
1.2
na
0
-12.8
-22.8
-33.1
na
0.5
na
0
-9.4
-12.1
-69.5
na
0.2
na
0
-2.2
0.1
6.2
na
2.0
na
0
0.0
17.4
-21.0
na
1.3
na
0
1.8
-10.4
-29.5
na
0.5
na
0
4.8
5.3
11.9
na
2.3
na
0
-9.9
-16.4
-24.0
na
1.8
na
0
-3.1
-5.4
-3.7
na
1.9
na
0
17.6
0.0
-30.6
na
0.4
na
1
0.0
9.2
9.2
na
1.2
na
0
-24.1
-29.0
-35.3
3.8
0.7
na
1
6.5
3.1
46.1
na
0.8
na
0
-3.4
-2.5
-1.5
na
0.7
na
1
-
Bahrain 3M ADTV ($mn)
Bahrain
3.5
2.5
1.5
0.5
-0.5
25
20
15
Frontier
10
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
Financials
11%4%
Telecoms
-5
85%
-10
Materials
Jan-16
Sep-15
May-15
Jan-15
Sep-14
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
4.00
Jan-12
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
3,082
2,618
333
131
1,061
471
364
309
245
231
225
209
179
179
170
167
156
132
116
May-12
10
MktCap
($mn)
6,910
4,361
1,332
1,310
1,929
1,107
460
327
330
362
625
279
205
359
1,555
331
333
528
238
Note: gaps reflect lack of analyst estimates; spikes reflect change in index constituents
71
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
1,400
20-64
65+
% of total exports
0.035
1.4
1,200
0.03
1.2
1,000
0.025
800
0.02
0.8
0.015
0.6
0.01
0.4
0.005
0.2
600
400
200
Tanzania
Kenya
India
Japan
Korea
UAE
USA
EU
Euro Area
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
Saudi Arabia
Source: UN
Source: IMF
Figure 260: Bahrain - dinar
CPI (average % YoY)

-10
3.5
3
-5
2.5
BHD vs $
0.7
BHD vs EUR
Bahrain REER (Dec 07 = 100)

90
Weaker
0.6
100
0.5
1.5
1
0.4
110
0.3
120
0.2
10
-0.5
Stronger
0.0
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
15
2004
-1
130
0.1
140
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
0.5
Source: IMF
25

Real GDP (% YoY)
9
8
20
7
15
8.3
7.0 6.8
6.5
6.2
10
5.3
4.5
4.3
3.6
2.5
3.4 3.2
2.8 2.9
2.1
Source: IMF
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
-10
2004
2004
-5
Source: IMF
berg, MSCI
72
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Bangladesh
Local Currency
BDT
BB-/Ba3
2.7%
MSCI Index
MXBD
2016 P/E
17.9
2016 EPS Growth
-3.5%
Trailing P/B
4.0
Beta to FM
0.3
9.1
2.1
No. of Companies
5
4.0
Local Index
DSEX
MktCap ($bn)
40.6
No. of Companies
33
3M ADTV ($mn)
#DIV/0!

MSCI Bulgaria, $
160
MSCI FM, $
140,000
2015
6.5
1,266
159.9
6.5
-0.9
-3.2
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
140
120
100
2016
6.8
1,356
161.5
6.8
-1.1
-3.8
2017
7.0
1,463
163.2
6.8
-1.2
-3.6
80
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
60
20,000
40
20
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jan-10

Ticker
Name
MXBD
MSCI Bangladesh
SQUARE BD Square Pharmaceu
GRAM BD Grameenphone Ltd
LAFCEM BD Lafarge Surma Ce
RENATA BD Renata Ltd
TITASGAS BDTitas Gas Transm
OLYMPI BD Olympic Inds Ltd
BXPHAR BD Beximco Pharmace
BATBC BD Brit Amer Tobacc
ISLAMI BD Islami Bank Bang
BEXIMC BD Beximco Export
BRAC BD
Brac Bank Ltd
ACI BD
Aci Ltd
PUBALI BD Pubali Bank Ltd
SUMITPOW BD
Summit Power Ltd
HEID BD
Heidelberger Cem
NBL BD
Natl Bank Ltd
DELTAL BD Delta Life Insur
IDLC BD
Idlc Finance
MktCap
($mn)
9,087
Healthcare
2,019
Telecoms
4,493
Materials
1,075
Healthcare
827
Energy
588
Cons. Staples
641
Healthcare
426
Cons. Staples
2,267
Financials
535
Industrials
258
Financials
428
Industrials
278
Financials
240
Utilities
415
Materials
397
Financials
208
Financials
177
Financials
198
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
2,149
1,010
449
377
165
147
439
370
346
299
218
214
207
177
174
156
153
141
122
Sector
3MADTV
($mn)
4.0
1.3
0.6
0.9
0.1
1.0
0.6
1.7
0.0
0.2
1.0
0.2
0.7
0.0
0.7
0.2
0.1
0.6
0.4
$ Performance
1M
3M
0.5
-3.8
-16.4
19.1
4.0
30.7
3
2.7
0.1
3.7
11.0
17.3
5.1
22.8
1
47.0
3.3
4.1
-21.7
16.1
11.2
69.7
1
20.9
-1.0
-13.7
-42.4
37.7
6.4
14.5
1
17.5
-1.3
0.7
45.4
na
8.1
na
0
7.7
-0.9
-34.2
-38.6
na
0.8
na
0
6.8
5.6
9.6
33.8
30.7
14.9
36.2
2
1.5
20.3
59.2
na
1.6
na
0
6.0
-0.1
-0.2
na
15.5
na
1
-6.2
-7.9
8.7
9.3
0.9
na
1
-0.4
9.6
7.6
na
0.4
na
0
-2.3
1.0
18.2
10.3
1.7
15.9
1
-3.5
-2.3
74.8
na
5.2
na
0
-0.1
0.5
-11.3
na
0.9
na
0
-0.3
11.6
13.4
na
1.6
na
1
-2.8
-9.4
10.8
na
4.8
na
0
2.1
-3.9
-13.3
na
0.6
na
0
-9.0
21.7
-18.1
na
11.9
na
0
0.3
3.1
0.7
na
2.4
na
0
-
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
12
10

20
Bangladesh 3M ADTV ($mn)

DSEX Index
25

8
Frontier
15
21%
Materials
Energy
Jan-16
Sep-15
May-15
Jan-15
Sep-14
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
Telecoms
55%
10
Healthcare
17%
15
10
7%
20
Valuation for local index due to lack of history for MSCI Index
73
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
140,000
20-64
65+
% of total exports
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
6
4
2
Source: UN
CPI (average % YoY)
-2
-1
10
-1
100.0
80.0
40.0
20.0
Bangladesh REER (Dec 07 = 100)

90
Weaker
100
110
120
130
140
150
Stronger
0.0
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
BDT vs EUR
60.0
2005
BDT vs $
120.0
160
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
12
2004
Source: IMF
Figure 273: Bangladesh - taka
14
Source: IMF

12
Canada
Italy
Spain
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
France
EU
20,000
Netherlands
40,000
10
UK
60,000
12
Germany
80,000
14
USA
100,000
16
Euro Area
120,000
Real GDP (% YoY)
8
7
10
6.1 6.3
6.9
6.5
5.5 5.3
6
8
6.5 6.3
6.3 6.5
6.0
6.0
6.8
7.0 7.0
4
3
2
2
Source: IMF
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
Source: IMF
berg, MSCI
74
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Bulgaria
Local Currency
BGN
BB+/Baa2
0.1%
MSCI Index
MXBU
2016 P/E
na
2016 EPS Growth
na
Trailing P/B
0.3
Beta to FM
0.5
0.3
0.1
No. of Companies
2
0.0
Local Index
SOFIX
MktCap ($bn)
1.3
No. of Companies
15
3M ADTV ($mn)
0.1

MSCI Bulgaria, $
160
MSCI FM, $
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
140
120
100
2015
1.7
6,582
7.2
0.3
1.0
-2.0
80
2016
1.9
6,815
7.1
0.9
0.2
-1.6
6,000
2017
2.0 5,000
7,150
7.1 4,000
1.5
-0.3 3,000
-1.2
2,000
60
1,000
40
20
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jan-10

Ticker
MXBU
5MB BU
6C4 BU
5MH BU
6A6 BU
T57 BU
3JR BU
5V2 BU
5SR BU
4ID BU
4I8 BU
5F4 BU
6AB BU
5BU BU
4CF BU
3NB BU
Name
MSCI Bulgaria
Monbat Ad
Chimimport Ad
M+S Hidravlik
Advance Ter-Reit
Trace Group Hold
Sopharma Ad
Holding Varna A
Stara Planina Ho
Industrial Holdi
Industrialen Cap
Cb First
Albena Ad
Bulg-Real Est Fn
Central Coop Bk
Neochim Ad-Dimit
Sector
Industrials
Industrials
Industrials
Financials
Industrials
Healthcare
Financials
Industrials
Industrials
Industrials
Financials
Cons. Disc.
Financials
Financials
Materials
MktCap
($mn)
272
161
108
107
98
75
197
65
43
37
28
135
111
18
63
68
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
69
40
28
107
98
75
66
65
43
37
24
20
20
18
11
11
3MADTV
($mn)
0.03
0.01
0.02
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.01
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.00
$ Performance
1M
3M
-4.5
-4.3
-29.8
na
0.3
na
2
0.1
-6.1
0.6
-10.3
na
1.6
na
2
59.6
-7.2
-9.0
-27.3
na
0.1
na
0
40.4
-5.4
-3.7
-11.3
na
3.0
na
1
1.8
2.5
-19.7
na
0.8
na
2
-8.1
-9.3
-14.1
na
1.3
na
0
-3.8
-1.5
-29.7
na
0.9
na
2
-8.8
4.6
26.6
na
0.8
na
0
-7.7
0.0
-13.1
na
0.9
na
1
-7.8
-2.2
-24.6
na
0.3
na
0
-0.2
0.9
-6.4
na
1.3
na
0
-2.1
-8.7
-14.4
na
0.3
na
2
-6.8
-4.2
-15.0
na
0.5
na
0
4.0
10.9
-2.1
na
0.5
na
1
-4.9
-5.2
-8.8
na
0.3
na
0
-0.5
-0.4
20.7
na
1.6
na
0
-
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
25
20
Industrials
-5
-10
Jan-16
Sep-15
May-15
Jan-15
Sep-14
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
15
100%
Jan-14
n/a
May-14
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
10
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Sep-12
Bulgaria 3M ADTV ($mn)
May-12
Jan-12
75
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
65+
% of total exports
0.7
5,000
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0.6
0.5
4,000
0.4
3,000
0.3
2,000
0.2
1,000
0.1
Singapore
Belgium
France
Greece
Romania
Turkey
Italy
Germany
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
Source: UN
CPI (average % YoY)

-30
12
-25
10
BGN vs $
2.4
2.0
-15
1.8
-10
1.6
-5
-2
70
80
90
100
1.4
1.2
Source: IMF
Source: IMF
6.0
6.5
6.9
5.8
2.0
0.7
0.5
1.1
1.7 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0
2016E
2015E
2014
2012
2011
2010
2009
-5.0
2008
-6
2016E
-10
2015E
-4
2014
-5
2013
-2
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
10
2007
2006
15
2005
2004
20
6.6
2007
2006
Real GDP (% YoY)
2005
25
120
2004
110
Stronger
1.0
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
-4
60
Weaker
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
Bulgaria REER (Dec 07 = 100)
2.2
-20
BGN vs EUR
2013
14
Source: IMF
Figure 286: Bulgaria - lev
2017E
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
EU
Euro Area
0
0
2018E
6,000
20-64
Source: IMF
berg, MSCI
76
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Croatia
Local Currency
HRK
BB/Ba1
1.4%
MSCI Index
MXCR
2016 P/E
11.8
2016 EPS Growth
-61.0%
Trailing P/B
0.8
Beta to FM
0.6
2.0
1.1
No. of Companies
2
0.5
Local Index
CRO
MktCap ($bn)
10.0
No. of Companies
25
3M ADTV ($mn)
1.0

MSCI Croatia, $
160
MSCI FM, $
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
140
120
100
3,500
2015
2016
2017
0.8
1.0
1.7 3,000
11,551 11,813 12,321
2,500
4.2
4.2
4.2
0.4
1.3
1.7 2,000
1.7
1.5
1.2
-5.1
-4.4
-3.6 1,500
80
1,000
60
40
20
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jan-10

Ticker
MXCR
HTRA ZA
ADRSPA ZA
ZABARA CZ
PODRRA CZ
INARA CZ
RIVPRA CZ
ATGRRA CZ
KOEIRA CZ
ERNTRA CZ
KRASRA CZ
LKRIRA CZ
TPNGRA CZ
ADPLRA CZ
MAISRA CZ
LKPCRA CZ
Name
MSCI Croatia
Hrvatski Telekom
Adris Grupa-Pref
Zagrebacka Banka
Podravka Prehram
Ina Industrija
Valamar Riviera
Atlantic Grupa
Koncar-Elektoin
Ericsson Nikola
Kras Dd
Luka Rijeka Dd
Tankerska Next G
Ad Plastik Dd
Maistra Dd
Luka Ploce Dd
Sector
Telecoms
Cons. Staples
Financials
Cons. Staples
Energy
Cons. Disc.
Cons. Staples
Industrials
IT
Cons. Staples
Industrials
Industrials
Cons. Disc.
Cons. Disc.
Industrials
MktCap
($mn)
1,954
1,628
988
1,695
324
3,833
411
387
233
190
98
81
87
56
335
37
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
1,149
817
332
256
252
233
188
147
98
97
57
51
47
36
33
27
3MADTV
($mn)
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
$ Performance
1M
3M
-4.1
-6.6
-10.1
11.9
0.8
8.2
6
1.4
-3.8
-6.9
-15.3
11.4
1.0
8.8
2
71.1
-6.6
-6.7
-2.0
13.3
0.8
4.1
4
28.9
1.3
5.4
4.7
na
0.7
na
0
-3.7
-10.9
6.7
12.0
0.7
7.3
3
-13.8
-15.6
-29.3
na
2.2
6.3
2
-4.1
-5.6
12.3
15.6
1.3
9.0
5
-2.6
-6.8
-14.6
11.5
1.4
11.4
4
-3.3
-8.8
-11.5
13.1
0.8
6.2
3
-2.9
-3.5
-25.5
12.7
4.0
33.8
4
1.0
8.3
26.0
na
1.2
na
0
-2.7
-3.8
-40.2
na
0.8
na
0
-7.7
-13.7
5.1
9.2
1.0
na
1
-6.3
-10.0
5.5
8.8
0.6
6.0
2
-2.8
-12.0
30.5
na
1.7
na
0
-9.0
-18.8
-7.3
na
0.6
na
0
-
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
15

10
Croatia 3M ADTV ($mn)

Croatia
16
10
Frontier
14
8
12
-5
8
6
71%
Cons.
Staples
-10
Jan-16
Sep-15
May-15
Jan-15
Sep-14
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
Telecoms
29%
10
Note: gaps reflect lack of analyst estimates; spikes reflect change in index constituents
77
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
3,500
20-64
65+
% of total exports
0.7
3,000
0.6
2,500
0.5
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0.4
2,000
0.3
0.2
1,500
0.1
1,000
Russia
Hungary
Serbia
Austria
Germany
Slovenia
Italy
Bosnia and Herze
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
Euro Area
EU
500
Source: UN
Source: IMF
Figure 299: Croatia - kuna
CPI (average % YoY)

-10
HRK vs $
10.0
-8
9.0
-6
8.0
-4
6.0
-2
5.0
3.0
2.0
-1
4
3
2
60
Weaker
70
7.0
80
90
4.0
100
Stronger
1.0
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
Croatia REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Source: IMF

15
110
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
HRK vs EUR
Real GDP (% YoY)
4.1 4.2
4.8 5.2
4
10
2.1
0.8 1.0
1.7 2.1
-0.3
-2
0
-1.7
-1.1
-0.4
-2.2
-4
-6
-8
Source: IMF
-7.4
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2008
2007
2006
2005
-10
2004
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
-10
2009
-5
Source: IMF
berg, MSCI
78
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Estonia
1,000
Jul-15
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
2015
2016
2017
2.0
2.9
3.0
17,425 18,453 19,761
1.3
1.3
1.3
0.4
2.1
2.0
0.6
0.3
-0.1
-0.7
-0.5
-0.5
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
MSCI FM, $
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jan-12
MSCI Estonia, $
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan-11

Local Currency
EUR
AA-/A1
0.5%
MSCI Index
MXEST
2016 P/E
8.6
2016 EPS Growth
9.6%
Trailing P/B
0.9
Beta to FM
0.6
0.9
0.4
No. of Companies
2
0.5
Local Index
TALSE
MktCap ($bn)
2.0
No. of Companies
15
3M ADTV ($mn)
0.7
Ticker
MXES
TAL1T ET
OEG1T ET
TKM1T ET
TVEAT ET
PKG1T ET
MRK1T ET
SFG1T ET
HAE1T ET
EEG1T ET
PRF1T ET
BLT1T ET
NCN1T ET
ARC1T ET
SKN1T ET
TPD1T ET
Name
MSCI Estonia
Tallink Group
Olympic Entertai
Tallinna Kaubama
As Tallinna Vesi
Pro Kapital Grup
As Merko Ehitus
Silvano Fashio-A
Harju Elekter
Ekspress Grupp A
Prfoods As
Baltika As
Nordecon As
Arco Vara As
Skano Group As
As Trigon Proper
MktCap
($mn)
911
Industrials
625
Cons. Disc.
292
Cons. Staples
297
Utilities
297
Financials
136
Industrials
150
Cons. Disc.
52
Industrials
50
Cons. Disc.
40
Cons. Staples
16
Cons. Disc.
14
Industrials
35
Financials
7
Cons. Disc.
4
Financials
2
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
430
313
116
90
76
67
41
32
19
16
13
10
8
4
1
0
Sector
3MADTV
($mn)
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
$ Performance
1M
3M
-0.8
3.4
2.7
8.6
0.9
8.1
5
0.5
-0.6
5.8
6.6
8.4
0.7
7.7
3
72.9
-2.3
-2.7
-5.6
8.8
2.5
25.3
2
27.1
-1.6
8.1
17.3
12.1
1.6
11.8
2
-0.9
-1.2
-8.2
14.1
3.3
21.7
2
4.0
-5.0
-11.9
na
1.5
-1.1
1
-9.4
-0.8
-2.4
12.8
1.1
8.2
2
-1.7
-2.0
-1.9
6.4
1.2
12.4
2
-2.0
1.9
-10.4
12.2
0.8
na
0
-6.9
0.3
2.8
6.6
0.8
10.3
1
-1.2
3.9
-46.3
18.6
0.4
na
0
-8.4
4.6
-34.2
10.1
1.8
na
0
-5.3
-1.8
-7.9
9.0
0.9
7.6
2
-1.4
9.4
12.9
8.2
0.7
na
0
0.7
-0.9
-14.8
na
0.6
na
0
-15.2
-12.8
-3.2
na
0.9
na
0
-
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
25
20
4.0
Estonia 3M ADTV ($mn)
3.5

TALSE Index
15
10
Frontier
13
3.0
2.5
Industrials
-10
1.5
1.0
-5
27%
11
2.0
15
73%
-15
Cons.
Disc.
-20
0.5
Jan-16
Sep-15
May-15
Jan-15
Sep-14
May-14
Jan-14
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jan-12
0.0
79
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
1,000
20-64
65+
% of total exports
900
800
700
0.8
14
0.7
12
0.6
10
600
0.5
500
0.4
400
0.3
300
0.2
200
0.1
100
Netherlands
Norway
Germany
Lithuania
Russia
Latvia
Finland
Sweden
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
Source: UN
CPI (average % YoY)

-16
-14
10
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
0.6
Estonia REER (Dec 07 = 100)

75
Weaker
80
0.8
85
1.0
90
1.2
95
1.4
100
1.6
Source: IMF
Real GDP (% YoY)

15
6.3
7.7
7.6
-5.4
-10
Source: IMF
2007
2006
-14.7
2005
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
-20
2007
-20
2006
-15
2005
-15
2004
-10
2018E
-5
-5
2.9 2.0 2.9 3.0 3.2
2016E
1.6
2015E
2009
2008
10
2.5
2014
5.2
2012
15
9.4 10.3
2011
10
2010
20
2004
110
25
105
Stronger
1.8
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
EUR vs $
2013
12
Source: IMF
Figure 312: Estonia - kroon/euro
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
2017E
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
Euro Area
EU
Source: IMF
berg, MSCI
80
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Jordan
Local Currency
JOD
BB-/B1
0.8%
MSCI Index
MXJO
2016 P/E
8.2
2016 EPS Growth
17.8%
Trailing P/B
0.7
Beta to FM
0.3
6.1
0.6
No. of Companies
2
0.7
Local Index
JOSMGNFF
MktCap ($bn)
22.1
No. of Companies
100
3M ADTV ($mn)
8.9

MSCI Jordan, $
160
MSCI FM, $
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
140
120
8,000
2015
2.9
5,600
6.8
1.9
-7.4
-3.0
2016
3.7
5,862
7.0
2.5
-6.5
-3.2
2017
4.5
6,145
7.1
2.3
-6.2
-3.3
100
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
80
1,000
60
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jan-10
40

Ticker
MXJO
ARBK JR
JOPH JR
JOPT JR
THBK JR
JOIB JR
JOEP JR
CABK JR
BOJX JR
EICO JR
AHLI JR
JOKB JR
UBSI JR
AJIB JR
AIEI JR
JTEL JR
RJAL JR
APOT JR
EXFB JR
Name
MSCI Jordan
Arab Bank Plc
Jordan Phosphate
Jordan Petroleum
Housing Bank
Jordan Islamic B
Jordanian Electr
Cairo Amman Bank
Bank Of Jordan
Al Eqbal Co For
Jordan Ahli Bank
Jordan Kuwait Bk
Bank Al Etihad
Arab Jordan Inv
Arab Internation
Jordan Telecom
Royal Jordanian
Arab Potash
Capital Bank Of
MktCap
($mn)
6,086
Financials
5,506
Materials
571
Energy
461
Financials
3,323
Financials
752
Utilities
300
Financials
563
Financials
627
Cons. Staples
592
Financials
313
Financials
573
Financials
251
Financials
404
Cons. Disc.
228
Telecoms
986
Industrials
64
Materials
2,347
Financials
266
Sector

Jordan 3M ADTV ($mn)
$ Performance
1M
3M
-3.2
-1.5
-5.0
8.0
0.7
8.4
5
0.8
-3.3
-2.3
1.0
8.2
0.7
8.4
4
88.9
-1.1
0.0
-16.8
6.4
0.5
7.6
1
11.1
2.3
9.7
17.7
na
2.2
na
1
0.8
0.8
3.0
16.7
2.5
14.9
2
0.4
9.4
-3.4
na
1.9
na
1
13.0
9.5
-2.7
na
1.9
na
0
1.4
13.8
3.3
8.6
1.0
14.6
1
8.9
18.3
4.5
9.5
1.3
14.1
1
-1.0
13.3
36.7
na
5.7
na
0
1.8
6.0
-5.8
na
0.7
na
0
1.9
10.8
-3.7
na
0.9
na
0
6.7
9.6
1.2
na
0.7
na
0
0.2
3.4
-9.4
na
1.5
na
0
0.2
-2.3
-8.2
na
1.9
na
0
-15.5
35.5
-15.1
na
2.2
na
0
-6.5
-6.9
-5.3
4.9
0.4
na
2
-4.2
-6.8
6.5
14.5
1.9
12.6
1
3.1
3.1
-24.0
na
0.7
na
0
-
Jordan
14
Frontier
20
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
25
10
11%
Financials
5
89%
10
14
15
10
30
16
20
12
40
Materials
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
Jan
Jul-14
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jan
Jul-11
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
3MADTV
($mn)
0.7
0.6
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
Jan
50
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
620
551
69
323
253
184
184
165
159
150
135
109
82
78
76
70
57
49
47
81
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
8,000
20-64
65+
% of total exports
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
0.2
China
Kuwait
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
Syria
USA
1,000
0.4
Euro Area
2,000
0.6
UAE
3,000
0.8
EU
4,000
India
5,000
1.2
Saudi Arabia
6,000
1.4
Iraq
7,000
Source: UN
16
Source: IMF
Figure 325: Jordan - dinar
CPI (average % YoY)

-20
14
-15
12
10
-10
JOD vs $
1.2
JOD vs EUR
Jordan REER (Dec 07 = 100)

0
Weaker
20
1.0
40
0.8
60
0.6
-5
4
2
100
0.2
120
Stronger
0.0
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
-2
80
0.4
140
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
Source: IMF
25

Real GDP (% YoY)
8.6
8.1 8.1 8.2
8
20
7.2
7
5.5
15
4.5 4.5
5
3.7
10
2.3
3.1 2.9
2.6 2.7 2.8
Source: IMF
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
Source: IMF
berg, MSCI
82
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Kazakhstan
Local Currency
KZT
BBB/Baa2
1.6%
MSCI Index
MXKZ
2016 P/E
7.6
2016 EPS Growth
-47.6%
Trailing P/B
0.5
Beta to FM
1.4
3.8
1.3
No. of Companies
2
2.3
Local Index
KZKAK
MktCap ($bn)
7.1
No. of Companies
9
3M ADTV ($mn)
0.3

MSCI Kazakhstan, $
160
MSCI FM, $
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
140
120
100
2015
1.5
11,028
17.7
9.0
-3.0
-3.2
14,000
2016
2017
2.4
3.8 12,000
9,650 10,720
10,000
17.9
18.2
8.0
7.0 8,000
-4.1
-2.1
-0.2
0.5 6,000
80
4,000
60
2,000
40
20
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jan-10

Ticker
Name
MXKA
KMG LI
HSBK LI
KCEL KZ
KKGB KZ
KZTO KZ
KZTK KZ
KEGC KZ
CCBN KZ
MktCap
($mn)
3,809
2,737
1,173
600
442
764
277
498
56
Sector
MSCI Kazakhstan
Kmg Ep-Gdr
Halyk Saving-Gdr
Kcell
Kazkommertsbank
Kaztransoil Jsc
Kazakhtelecom
Kazakhstan Elect
Bank Centercredi
Energy
Financials
Telecoms
Financials
Energy
Telecoms
Utilities
Financials
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
1,330
1,095
235
229
139
76
64
50
15
3MADTV
($mn)
2.3
1.5
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
$ Performance
1M
3M
-10.8
-13.3
-43.1
7.1
0.5
16.7
24
1.6
-7.6
-4.2
-39.7
9.0
0.6
5.7
13
82.6
-13.1
-29.7
-36.0
4.4
0.9
17.1
11
17.4
-20.1
-36.4
-66.6
4.7
2.1
49.4
4
-23.1
-41.2
-67.2
na
0.4
na
0
-13.4
-34.7
-49.8
na
0.6
na
2
-12.9
-30.8
-47.7
na
0.3
na
1
-11.9
-19.0
-25.3
na
0.5
na
3
-20.1
-36.8
-67.4
na
0.3
na
0
-
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
25
20
Kazakhstan 3M ADTV ($mn)
25
20
Kazakhstan
14
Frontier
10
12
10
15
10
15
Energy
17%
8
-5
6
83%
Financials
-10
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
Jan
Jul-14
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jan
Jul-11
Jul-10
Apr-15
Nov-15
Sep-14
Jul-13
Feb-14
Dec-12
Oct-11
May-12
Mar-11
Jan-10
Aug-10
Jan
83
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
65+
% of total exports
0.3
15
0.2
10
0.1
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
EU
Spain
2,000
20
Romania
4,000
0.4
Greece
6,000
25
France
8,000
0.5
Germany
10,000
30
Russia
12,000
0.6
China
14,000
20-64
Euro Area
0-19
Italy
Source: UN
20
CPI (average % YoY)

-10
18
-8
16
-6
14
-4
12
-2
10
KZT vs $
400.0
KZT vs EUR
Kazakhstan REER (Dec 07 = 100)

0
Weaker
350.0
20
300.0
40
250.0
60
200.0
80
150.0
100
100.0
50.0
Source: IMF
140

25
120
Stronger
0.0
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
Source: IMF
Figure 338: Kazakhstan - tenge
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
Real GDP (% YoY)
12
20
10
15
10.7
9.6 9.7
8.9
7.3 7.5
10
6.0
5.0
5
0
4.3
3.8 4.0
3.3
2.4
2
-5
1.5
1.2
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2016E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2015E
Source: IMF
2004
-10
Source: IMF
berg, MSCI
84
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Kenya
Local Currency
KES
B+/B1
5.4%
MSCI Index
MXKE
2016 P/E
9.3
2016 EPS Growth
19.8%
Trailing P/B
3.0
Beta to FM
0.7
11.3
4.4
No. of Companies
5
5.2
Local Index
NSEASI
MktCap ($bn)
18.9
No. of Companies
62
3M ADTV ($mn)
6.6

MSCI Kenya, $
290
MSCI FM, $
2015
6.5
1,432
44.1
6.3
-9.6
-8.1
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
240
190
2016
6.8
1,522
45.2
5.4
-9.2
-7.3
60,000
2017
7.0 50,000
1,653
46.4 40,000
5.0
-7.1 30,000
-6.1
20,000
140
10,000
90
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jan-10
40

Ticker
MXKE
SAFCOM KN
EABL KN
KNCB KN
EQBNK KN
COOP KN
BATK KN
DTKL KN
BMBC KN
BCBL KN
CFCB KN
JBIC KN
SCBL KN
NICB KN
CENTUM KN
NMG KN
CIC KN
KPLL KN
IM KN
Name
MSCI Kenya
Safaricom Ltd
East African Bre
Kenya Commercial
Equity Group Hol
Co-Operative Ban
Brit Amer To-Ken
Diamond Trust
Bamburi Cement
Barclays Bank
Cfc Stanbic Hold
Jubilee Holdings
Standard Charter
Nic Bank Ltd
Centum Investmen
Nation Media Grp
Cic Insurance Gr
Kenya Power&Ligh
I&M Holdings Ltd
MktCap
($mn)
11,272
Telecoms
5,933
Cons. Staples
2,048
Financials
1,131
Financials
1,420
Financials
789
Cons. Staples
782
Financials
445
Materials
614
Financials
658
Financials
309
Financials
290
Financials
589
Financials
239
Financials
299
Cons. Disc.
321
Financials
134
Utilities
224
Financials
376
Sector

Kenya 3M ADTV ($mn)
3MADTV
($mn)
5.2
1.1
1.2
1.2
2.0
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
$ Performance
1M
3M
-4.7
-3.9
-25.3
9.0
3.0
34.0
65
5.4
-6.0
4.8
-3.7
15.1
6.3
37.5
18
33.7
-3.0
-3.7
-23.4
19.2
15.3
57.8
8
23.2
-3.8
-5.9
-41.4
4.9
1.4
25.1
13
19.3
-3.8
-14.3
-35.5
6.5
2.0
27.3
13
17.5
-4.1
-3.3
-22.4
5.8
1.6
23.3
13
6.3
1.9
3.7
-20.3
17.2
9.8
55.2
5
2.1
-1.4
-31.2
5.7
1.4
21.9
8
-1.8
7.7
3.4
13.2
2.2
17.5
8
-8.6
-2.7
-31.0
6.8
1.8
na
8
-2.5
-1.6
-42.6
5.2
0.9
16.0
6
-7.1
8.3
-2.9
7.6
1.9
na
4
-4.0
-2.9
-48.4
6.1
1.5
na
7
-11.6
3.0
-47.7
4.6
1.0
20.5
7
-1.2
7.8
-34.6
na
0.9
na
2
-4.5
28.8
-42.2
11.5
3.4
26.0
3
-15.4
-18.3
-52.7
6.5
1.9
na
1
-11.7
-24.7
-30.3
2.5
0.4
14.7
7
-2.1
0.6
-26.8
na
1.5
na
4
-

Kenya
16
12
14
10
12
6
4
2
0
9
8
Telecoms
1
0
Cons.
Staples
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
Jan
Jul-14
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jan
34%
Jul-11
3
43%
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
10
23%
12
14
Frontier
10
16
Financials
Jan
14
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
4,385
1,484
1,025
843
757
276
782
300
224
204
169
158
154
144
132
129
126
100
94
85
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
60,000
20-64
65+
% of total exports
0.25
50,000
1.6
1.4
0.2
40,000
1.2
1
0.15
0.8
30,000
0.1
20,000
0.6
0.4
0.05
10,000
0.2
Pakistan
Egypt
UK
Zambia
Tanzania
Netherlands
USA
Uganda
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
Source: UN
CPI (average % YoY)

-12
14
-10
12
-8
10
8
-6
-4
4
-2
Kenya REER (Dec 07 = 100)

0
Weaker
20
120.0
40
100.0
60
80.0
80
60.0
100
40.0
120
20.0
140
Stronger
0.0
160
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
Source: IMF
Source: IMF
4.6
5.7
6.8 7.0 7.0
5.3
4.6
3.3
2018E
2016E
0.2
2013
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
5.7 5.9
2012
6.5
6.1
2009
6.9
2008
2007
2006
2005
8.4
2011
Real GDP (% YoY)
2004

2010
2015E
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
KES vs EUR
140.0
2004
KES vs $
160.0
2014
16
Source: IMF
Figure 351: Kenya - shilling
2017E
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
Euro Area
EU
Source: IMF
berg, MSCI
86
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Kuwait
Local Currency
KWD
AA/Aa2
20.5%
MSCI Index
MXKW
2016 P/E
10.5
2016 EPS Growth
12.5%
Trailing P/B
1.1
Beta to FM
0.8
34.4
16.6
No. of Companies
8
18.0
Local Index
KWSEIDX
MktCap ($bn)
77.9
No. of Companies
186
3M ADTV ($mn)
42.4

MSCI Kuwait, $
160
MSCI FM, $
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
140
120
100
4,000
2015
2016
2017
3,500
1.2
2.5
2.7
29,983 30,426 32,650 3,000
4.1
4.2
4.3
2,500
3.3
3.3
3.5
9.3
7.0
8.8 2,000
1.3
0.1
2.5
1,500
1,000
80
60
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jan-10
40
4
3
2
1
0
25
20
-5
-10
Industrials
Jan
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Financials
6%
78%
Jul-15
100
15
Telecoms
Jan
200
10
16%
Jan
300
Frontier
Jul-14
400
$ Performance
1M
3M
-9.9
-12.8
-28.0
10.4
1.1
12.0
42
20.5
-12.4
-14.7
-20.5
10.8
1.3
13.2
9
34.4
-12.0
-15.2
-33.9
11.2
1.3
10.9
7
22.1
-1.4
-8.1
-35.4
7.6
0.8
10.9
10
16.3
-4.3
2.3
0.6
15.6
2.6
14.5
5
7.4
-13.4
-22.3
-45.6
na
0.5
na
1
5.6
-8.7
-8.8
-27.7
10.3
1.1
na
2
5.3
-10.2
-9.3
-9.2
19.1
2.6
na
1
4.9
-11.9
-16.5
-26.6
7.6
1.1
13.0
7
4.0
4.1
-0.1
-18.4
12.9
1.3
8.9
3
-6.7
-6.8
-16.0
na
1.0
na
0
-18.4
-20.1
-28.9
10.6
1.2
na
1
0.1
13.7
39.7
9.1
6.0
47.3
6
-10.2
-22.2
-37.0
10.5
2.0
na
3
-10.9
-17.6
-21.5
na
0.8
na
0
-10.9
-15.6
-26.6
9.8
0.8
na
1
-14.0
-23.7
-43.6
na
0.4
na
0
-5.5
3.1
-14.3
na
1.2
na
2
-7.4
-12.8
-17.5
na
0.5
na
0
-
Kuwait
Jan
500
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Jul-13
Kuwait 3M ADTV ($mn)
Jul-12
600
3MADTV
($mn)
18.0
5.0
4.6
2.2
0.9
2.4
1.4
0.8
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.2
3.8
0.6
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.2
Jan
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
16,567
5,696
3,654
2,705
1,232
922
884
805
668
1,848
1,424
1,126
934
773
681
436
399
378
355
Jan
Financials
Financials
Telecoms
Financials
Industrials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Telecoms
Cons. Disc.
Materials
Financials
Industrials
Financials
Financials
MktCap
($mn)
34,411
11,616
7,453
4,916
2,462
1,676
2,523
2,684
2,227
2,418
1,839
2,128
1,628
2,330
784
669
493
557
441
Jul-11
MXKW
MSCI Kuwait
NBK KK
Natl Bank Kuwait
KFIN KK
Kuwait Finance
ZAIN KK
Mobile Telecommu
MABANEE KKMabanee Co Sakc
AGLTY KK Agility
KPROJ KK Kuwait Projects
BOUBYAN KKBoubyan Bank K.S
BURG KK
Burgan Bank
CBK KK
Commercial Bk Ku
ABK KK
Al Ahli Bank Kuw
GBK KK
Gulf Bank
VIVA KK
Viva Kuwait Tele
FOOD KK
Kuwait Food Co
BPCC KK
Boubyan Petroch
KIB KK
Kuwait Internati
NIND KK
Natl Industries
SRE KK
Salhiahia Real
ALTIJARI KK Commercial Real
Sector
Jul-10
Name
Jan
Ticker
87
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
4,000
20-64
65+
% of total exports
0.18
18
3,500
0.16
16
3,000
0.14
14
0.12
12
2,500
1,000
0.04
0.02
Singapore
EU
China
USA
Korea
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
India
500
Egypt
0.06
Euro Area
1,500
Taiwan
10
Japan
0.1
0.08
2,000
Source: UN
CPI (average % YoY)

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
KWD vs $
0.5
KWD vs EUR
Kuwait REER (Dec 07 = 100)

0
Weaker
0.4
20
0.4
40
0.3
0.3
60
0.2
80
0.2
100
0.1
0.1
Source: IMF
140

25
120
Stronger
0.0
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
50
2005
2004
Source: IMF
Figure 364: Kuwait - dinar
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
Real GDP (% YoY)
12 10.8
20
7.7
7.5
15
10.6
10.1
10
6.0
6
4
10
2.5 2.7 2.7
2.5
0.8
-2
-2.4
-4
-5
0.1
1.2
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
-7.1
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2016E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2015E
Source: IMF
-8
2010
-6
-10
Source: IMF
berg, MSCI
88
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Lebanon
MSCI Lebanon, $
160
MSCI FM, $
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
140
120
100
4,000
2015
2016
2017
3,500
2.0
2.5
3.0
11,945 12,405 12,800 3,000
4.6
4.6
4.6
2,500
1.0
2.0
2.5
-21.0
-19.3
-18.3 2,000
-10.0
-8.0
-8.8
1,500
1,000
80
60
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
40
Jan-10

Local Currency
LBP
B-/B2
3.8%
MSCI Index
MXLB
2016 P/E
5.5
2016 EPS Growth
-1.7%
Trailing P/B
0.9
Beta to FM
0.3
5.4
3.1
No. of Companies
4
1.4
Local Index
BLOM
MktCap ($bn)
0.0
No. of Companies
7
3M ADTV ($mn)
0.8
Ticker
MXLB
BLOM LB
SOLA LB
AUDI LB
SOLB LB
BYB LB
BOB LB
HOLC LB
RYM LB
BEMO LB
CBN LB
BLC LB
Name
MSCI Lebanon
Blom Bank
Solidere-A
Bank Audi Sal
Solidere-B
Byblos Bank
Bank Of Beirut
Holcim Liban
Rasamny-Younis
Banq Bemo Sal
Ciments Blancs N
Blc Bank
Sector
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Materials
Cons. Disc.
Financials
Materials
Financials
MktCap
($mn)
5,427
2,021
1,709
2,430
1,709
922
919
281
88
138
33
260
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
3,098
1,213
1,033
517
335
922
919
281
88
29
11
5
3MADTV
($mn)
1.4
1.4
0.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
na
0.0
na
na
$ Performance
1M
3M
-0.8
5.8
-2.1
5.5
0.9
na
9
3.8
0.0
0.0
5.0
5.3
0.8
na
3
39.1
-1.6
14.2
-5.8
18.2
0.9
na
1
33.5
0.5
2.4
-1.9
6.2
0.9
na
4
16.7
-1.6
11.7
-6.2
na
0.9
na
1
10.8
1.2
1.9
-0.6
6.7
0.6
12.8
3
-3.2
-1.1
-1.1
na
0.7
na
1
-0.7
-4.8
-3.9
na
na
na
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
na
1.8
na
0
0.0
0.0
6.1
na
0.9
na
0
0.0
0.0
12.7
na
1.6
na
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
na
0.7
na
0
-
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
20
15
MSCI Lebanon 3M ADTV ($mn)
Lebanon
16

10
Frontier
14
12
10
Financials
8
6
-5
100%
-10
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
Jan
Jul-14
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jan
Jul-11
Jul-10
Jan
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
89
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
4,000
20-64
65+
% of total exports
0.12
3,500
0.4
0.35
0.1
3,000
0.3
0.08
2,500
0.25
0.06
Jordan
Turkey
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
Switzerland
South Africa
0.05
Iraq
500
0.1
Euro Area
0.02
Syria
1,000
0.15
UAE
0.04
Saudi Arabia
1,500
0.2
EU
2,000
Source: UN
12
Source: IMF
Figure 377: Lebanon - pound
CPI (average % YoY)

-30
10
-25
-15
1500.0
-10
1000.0
-5
20
60
80
100
120

20
160
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Source: IMF
140
Stronger
0.0
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
Weaker
500.0
2004
-2
Lebanon REER (Dec 07 = 100)
40
2000.0
LBP vs EUR
2500.0
-20
LBP vs $
3000.0
Real GDP (% YoY)
12
10.3
Source: IMF
1.6
2.0 2.0
2.5
3.0 3.0
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
0.9
2012
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
-10
2005
2004
-5
2.8 2.5
2.7
2011
2010
5.1
2009
2008
8.0
2007
2006
10
9.4 9.1
2005
10
2004
15
Source: IMF
berg, MSCI
90
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Lithuania
EUR
A-/A3
0.2%
MXLT
11.8
16.0%
2.8
0.4
0.8
0.1
2
0.1
VILSE
1.7
22
0.4
MSCI Lithuania, $
160
MSCI FM, $
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
140
120
100
80
2,500
2015
2016
2017
1.8
2.6
3.0
2,000
14,318 15,366 16,631
2.9
2.9
2.9
0.2
1.5
1.9 1,500
-2.2
-2.4
-2.2
-1.2
-1.4
-1.4 1,000
60
40
20
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jan-10

Local Currency
MSCI Index
2016 P/E
2016 EPS Growth
Trailing P/B
Beta to FM
No. of Companies
Local Index
MktCap ($bn)
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn)

Ticker
MXLT
TEO1L LH
APG1L LH
KNF1L LH
LNA1L LH
PZV1L LH
GRG1L LH
CTS1L LH
INR1L LH
RSU1L LH
INC1L LH
PTR1L LH
AVG1L LH
IVL1L LH
INL1L LH
LNS1L LH
Name
MSCI Lithuania
Teo Lt
Apranga Pva
Klaipedos Nafta
Linas Agro Group
Pieno Zvaigzdes
Grigiskes
City Service As
Invl Baltic Real
Rokiskio Suris
Invl Technology
Panevezio Staty
Agrowill Group
Invalda Lt Ab
Invl Baltic Farm
Linas
Sector
Telecoms
Cons. Disc.
Energy
Cons. Staples
Cons. Staples
Materials
Industrials
Financials
Cons. Staples
na
Industrials
Cons. Staples
Financials
na
Cons. Disc.
MktCap
($mn)
783
635
154
159
114
73
76
57
19
55
26
16
63
43
10
3
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
130
76
54
44
37
32
26
19
17
15
14
8
5
4
1
1
3MADTV
($mn)
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
$ Performance
1M
3M
-0.6
-2.4
-7.7
na
2.8
na
2
0.2
-0.3
-1.6
-7.3
na
2.6
na
0
58.3
-0.3
-2.5
-6.5
11.7
3.1
23.7
2
41.7
4.2
8.9
13.1
na
0.8
na
0
-1.3
-0.7
-9.5
7.6
0.7
8.5
2
3.3
-1.9
-14.7
na
1.8
na
0
-3.8
0.5
0.4
na
1.5
na
0
-0.7
3.3
-5.7
8.0
0.8
8.6
1
13.7
20.8
-78.5
na
0.2
na
0
-1.9
1.8
-2.4
na
0.5
na
0
-3.5
-7.9
40.2
na
1.0
na
0
-0.4
-2.9
-2.6
na
1.4
na
0
6.8
26.5
30.2
na
1.0
na
0
-3.7
-7.0
4.8
na
0.8
na
0
-2.9
-0.6
-3.1
na
na
na
0
5.9
-5.6
-13.0
na
1.2
na
0
-
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
20
15
Lithuania 3M ADTV ($mn)
2.5
VILSE Index
15
2.0
58%
-15
Cons.
Disc.
0.5
-10
42%
1.0
-5
Telecoms
11
1.5
10
Frontier
13
-20
Jan-16
Sep-15
May-15
Jan-15
Sep-14
May-14
Jan-14
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
May-12
0.0
Jan-12
3.0
91
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
2,500
20-64
65+
% of total exports
0.6
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0.5
2,000
0.4
1,500
0.3
1,000
0.2
0.1
500
UK
Estonia
Netherlands
Belarus
Germany
Poland
Latvia
Russia
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
Euro Area
EU
0
0
Source: UN
CPI (average % YoY)
-16
-14
10
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
Lithuania REER (Dec 07 = 100)

75
Weaker
80
0.8
85
1.0
90
1.2
95
100
1.4
105
1.6
1.8
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
0.6
0
4
2004
-2
EUR vs $
Source: IMF

Real GDP (% YoY)
15
15
10
10
11.1
7.4 7.8 7.4
6.1
2.6
1.6
3.8 3.3 3.0
3.0 3.3
1.8 2.6
2015E
20
115
2012
110
Stronger
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
12
Source: IMF
Figure 390: Lithuania - litas/euro
-5
-5
-10
Source: IMF
2018E
2017E
2016E
2014
2013
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
-14.8
2005
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
-20
2006
-20
2005
-15
2004
-15
2004
-10
Source: IMF
berg, MSCI
92
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy
Mauritius
Local Currency
MUR
-/Baa1
1.8%
MSCI Index
MXMR
2016 P/E
10.3
2016 EPS Growth
18.0%
Trailing P/B
1.2
Beta to FM
0.3
3.8
2.0
No. of Companies
3
1.5
Local Index
SEMDEX
MktCap ($bn)
5.7
No. of Companies
42
3M ADTV ($mn)
0.8

MSCI Mauritius, $
160
MSCI FM, $
Real GDP (% YoY)

GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
140
120
2015
3.2
9,187
1.3
3.0
-4.8
-5.0
100
900
2016
2017
800
3.8
3.6
9,643 10,243 700
1.3
1.3 600
3.0
3.0
500
-4.8
-5.3
-3.9
-3.8 400
300
200
80
100
60
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jan-10
40

Ticker
Name
MXMR
MSCI Mauritius
MCBG MP Mcb Group Ltd
ROC SJ
Rockcastle Globa
SBMH MP Sbm Holdings Ltd
ALT MP
Alteo Ltd
NMH MP
New Mauritius Ho
CIEL MP
Ciel Ltd
ROGERS MP Rogers & Co Ltd
CIM MP
Cim Financial Se
SUN MP
Sun Limited-Cl A
NRL MP
Lux Island Resor
MTMD MP Omnicane Ltd
PADFP MP Promotion & D-Fp
SHELL MP Vivo Energy Maur
IBL MP
Ireland Blyth
FINCORP MP Fincorp Invest
PBL MP
Phoenix Beverage
GML MP
Gamma Civic Ltd
SAVA MP
Enl Land Ltd
MktCap
($mn)
3,838
Financials
1,362
Financials
2,026
Financials
556
Cons. Staples
274
Cons. Disc.
309
Financials
280
Industrials
196
Financials
146
Cons. Disc.
140
Cons. Disc.
222
Utilities
131
Financials
110
Energy
77
Financials
260
Financials
63
Cons. Staples
171
Cons. Disc.
90
Cons. Staples
318
Sector
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
1,979
689
1,007
283
274
227
223
171
146
140
134
131
110
77
69
63
58
57
55
3MADTV
($mn)
1.5
0.3
1.7
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
$ Performance
1M
3M
-3.6
-9.8
-21.7
8.3
1.2
11.9
11
1.8
0.4
-2.6
-5.6
7.1
1.3
17.0
5
46.2
-2.9
-0.7
-0.8
21.3
1.5
6.1
3
34.9
-7.7
-16.9
-40.8
5.1
0.8
12.0
3
18.9
0.1
-10.9
-9.4
na
0.6
na
1
31.3
27.1
-14.3
na
0.8
na
2
-2.8
-5.8
-18.3
na
0.7
na
0
1.1
-3.9
-12.5
na
0.8
na
1
-2.9
-2.3
-23.6
na
1.7
na
0
0.8
-4.8
-14.3
15.7
0.7
3.0
1
-2.3
-0.1
-6.2
na
1.4
na
1
0.1
2.9
-20.1
na
0.5
na
0
10.8
6.8
-2.1
na
0.5
na
0
-5.0
-14.1
-38.2
na
4.1
na
0
23.0
19.5
8.1
na
1.7
na
1
22.8
18.3
-9.0
na
0.6
na
0
-3.1
-7.1
22.8
13.5
1.9
na
1
-6.2
-10.5
-50.9
na
1.5
na
0
7.6
3.8
-5.5
na
0.6
na
2
-
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
25
20

Mauritius 3M ADTV ($mn)
12
10

15
Frontier
10
5
Financials
100%
-5
Dec-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
1
0
Mauritius
14
Dec-14
93
Renaissance Capital
X January 2016
Strategy

0-19
900
20-64
65+
% of total exports
800
700
1.4
0.5
1.2
600
0.4
500
0.3
400
0.6
1
0.8
0.6
0.2
300
0.4
0.1
200
0.2
Spain
Madagascar
Italy
South Africa
USA
UAE
UK
EU
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
France
Euro Area
100
Source: UN
12
Source: IMF
Figure 403: Mauritius - rupee
CPI (average % YoY)

-16
-14
10
-12
8
-10
MUR vs $
50.0
MUR vs EUR
Mauritius REER (Dec 07 = 100)

0
Weaker
20
40.0
40
30.0
60
-6
20.0
80
-4
10.0
-8
4
2
100
-2
140
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
0.0
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
120
Stronger
Source: IMF
25

Real GDP (% YoY)
7
5.9
20
15
5.5
4.5
4.3
4.1
3.9
3.2 3.2
3.0
10
3.6
3.8
3.2
3.6 3.6
3
2
Source: IMF
2018E
2017E
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2004
2016E
2015E
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
-5
2005
2004
1.5
2005
Source: IMF
berg, MSCI
94

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Frontier Pt1

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Renaissance Capital

Figure 238: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100)

Figure 239: Economic outlook

Real GDP (% YoY)

Figure 240: Index and stock data

Figure 241: 3MADTV, $mn

Figure 243: MSCI sector weights

Figure 242: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x)

Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI

Figure 245: Export destinations, total $69bn

Value ($bn), 2014, RHS

Argentina REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel

Real GDP (% YoY)

Change in lending as % of GDP

Figure 249: Real GDP % change, YoY

Figure 248: Bank lending growth vs GDP

Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS

Figure 251: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100)

Figure 252: Economic outlook

Real GDP (% YoY)

Figure 253: Index and stock data

Figure 254: 3MADTV, $mn

Figure 255: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x)

Bahrain 3M ADTV ($mn)

Figure 256: MSCI sector weights

Figure 258: Export destinations, total $120bn

Value ($bn), 2014, RHS

CPI (average % YoY)

Bahrain REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel

Real GDP (% YoY)

Figure 264: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100)

Figure 265: Economic outlook

Real GDP (% YoY)

Figure 266: Index and stock data

Figure 267: 3MADTV, $mn

Bangladesh 3M ADTV ($mn)

Figure 268: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x)

Figure 269: MSCI sector weights

Figure 271: Export destinations, total $30bn

Value ($bn), 2014, RHS

Bangladesh REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS

Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel

Change in lending as % of GDP

Real GDP (% YoY)

Figure 277: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100)

Figure 278: Economic outlook

Real GDP (% YoY)

Figure 279: Index and stock data

Figure 282: MSCI sector weights

Bulgaria 3M ADTV ($mn)

Figure 281: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x)

Figure 280: 3MADTV, $mn

Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI

Figure 284: Export destinations, total $29bn

Value ($bn), 2014, RHS

CPI (average % YoY)

Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel

1.7 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0

Real GDP (% YoY)

Change in lending as % of GDP

Figure 288: Real GDP % change, YoY