Enduring Understanding(s) Addressed this Lesson: Students will

be able to explain the difference between experimental and theoretical

probability, as well as how to calculate each given different scenarios.
Essential Question(s) Addressed Today: How are experimental
versus theoretical probability different? How can we calculate experimental
probability? What kinds of questions can this help us address? How can we
find theoretical probability?
Check(s) for Understanding and Formative/Summative
Assessments: Class activity
Differentiation:
In my lessons, IXL Review is differentiated for every student. I match
specific skills to how they do on testing and in-class work. These skills
range from basic numeracy to operations, algebra, problem-solving and
more.
Problem sets are also differentiated; the bronze problems are problems that
everyone should be able to do, silver are slightly harder, and gold really
push student thinking.
Agenda:
4 minutes - Do Now fractions
5 minutes - Check-In
10 minutes - Math minute
Math minute review
20 minutes - Notes on probability
15 mins - Coin flip activity
5 - Wrap-up and conclusion

Do Now Exercise
Convert each fraction to a simpler equivalent form.
12 4
=
15

5
1
=

15

Find four equivalent fractions for the fraction given below:

2
=
5

When were studying probability, the denominator means _________

______________________________________.

Materials: Guided Notes

Probability is represented as a decimal, fraction or a percent.

This makes sense because the lowest number can be 0, which

represents impossibility, while the highest number, 1, represents certainty.

The numerator represents # of favorable outcomes.

The denominator represents # of possible outcomes.
(*Note: in the fraction above, that means there are a total of 4
possible outcomes)

You do:

a. In the bag of marbles above, what is the total number of

outcomes?

b. How many striped marbles are there?

c. Now put a. and b. together: what is the probability of pulling

a striped marble?

d. Calculate the probability of pulling a black marble and a clear

marble.

Theoretical versus Experimental Probability

What is the probability that if you toss a coin, it lands on heads?
This represents theoretical probability: it is what we predict would
happen.

Lets see how accurate this is.

With a partner, toss a coin 10 times (5 each), and record the results in the
table below.
Heads

How many times did it land on heads?

Tails

Try again! Fill out the table with trials.

Heads

Tails

The experimental probability is determined from the results of an

experiment. (Its what actually happens).

The experimental probability of this coin toss was ________(for

heads/tails).
****Theoretical probability and experimental probability CAN be the same.
However, it is not necessarily the same.

Theoretical is the prediction

Experimental is what actually happens