CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker: New Hampshire, January 2016

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
New Hampshire
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error
1040 Registered Voters

January 18-21, 2016
6.2%
1. How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2016 Presidential campaign so far?
A lot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57%
Some . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34%
Not much . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
No attention so far . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
2. How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential primary in New Hampshire?
Definitely will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .78%
Probably will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
Maybe will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
Probably will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Definitely will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Dont know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
3. In 2016, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican Presidential primary?
Democratic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32%
Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35%
Neither . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9%
Dont know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%

New Hampshire
4. Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the New Hampshire Republican
Presidential primary in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters
Jeb Bush . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
Ben Carson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Chris Christie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
Ted Cruz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
Carly Fiorina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Jim Gilmore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Mike Huckabee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
John Kasich . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Rand Paul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Marco Rubio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
Rick Santorum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34%
No preference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0%
5. Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the New Hampshire Democratic
Presidential primary in 2016?
Asked of Democratic primary voters
Hillary Clinton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38%

Martin OMalley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Bernie Sanders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57%
No preference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0%
6. Which best describes your support for [First Choice Candidate Name] right now?
Very strong Ive decided . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36%

Strong I probably wont change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37%
Somewhat strong I might still change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23%
Not too strong Ill probably keep looking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%

New Hampshire
7. What could [Candidate Name] do to make you completely decided?
Asked of Republican primary voters who are not very strongly decided
Convince me they can really win . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37%

Convince me they stand with me on the issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
Convince me they can be effective in the job . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29%
Im never completely decided until Election Day . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
None of these . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
8. How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?
Enthusiastic about [Candidate Name] . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64%

Supporting [Candidate Name] but with some reservations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31%
Considering [Candidate Name] mainly because you dislike the other choices so
far . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
9. Youve told us youre supporting [Candidate Name] are there other candidates you could
consider voting for...?
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Chris Christie
Jeb Bush
John Kasich
Ben Carson
Yes, could consider

31%
45%
54%
45%
41%
30%
33%
No, could never consider

69%
55%
46%
55%
59%
70%
67%
10. In trying to achieve their goals, do you feel each candidates approach would probably be...
Chris Christie
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Too extreme
16%
55%
36%
14%
About right
50%
41%
52%
58%
Too moderate
34%
4%
12%
27%

New Hampshire
11. Do you feel these candidates have been consistent in what they stand for?
Chris Christie
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Yes, consistent
53%
63%
65%
51%
No, not consistent

47%
37%
35%
49%
12. Regardless of who youre supporting, please tell us whether you feel each of these
candidates gets it that is, understands how you and people like you feel right now?
Chris Christie
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Understands
63%
71%
59%
60%
Doesnt understand
37%
29%
41%
40%
13. Whats most important: picking the candidate best prepared to...
Defend my faith and religious values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%

Win the General election in November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26%
Fight terrorism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27%
Shake up politics-as-usual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
Bring back jobs and the American economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28%
14. Do you think Ted Cruzs birthplace is a serious issue or not?

Serious . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23%
Not serious . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77%

New Hampshire
15. Does Donald Trumps being from New York make you think better of him, worse of him, or
does it not matter to you?
Better . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Worse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Does not matter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86%
16. Regardless of who youre supporting, who do you think would do a better job on...?
Health care policy

Wall Street reform
Terrorism
Taxes
The economy and
jobs
Gun policy
Hillary Clinton
34%
11%
48%
21%
Bernie Sanders
48%
79%
22%
63%
Both equally
18%
10%
30%
16%
25%
43%
49%
26%
26%
31%
17. From what youve seen or heard, which better describes the candidates policy proposals...
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Realistic
77%
46%
Idealistic
23%
54%
18. Regardless of who youre supporting, please tell us whether you feel each of these
candidates gets it that is, understands how you and people like you feel right now?
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Understands
60%
95%
Doesnt understand
40%
5%

New Hampshire
19. As President, would each candidate ultimately do...?
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
What big donors want

61%
3%
What regular people

want
39%
97%
20. When you vote in the New Hampshire primary, you will be most satisfied about having a
chance to...
Support an historic candidacy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%

Shake up politics-as-usual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%
Get progressive things done . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38%
Give the Democrats a good chance to win in November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37%
21. Do you think Hillary Clinton has criticized Bernie Sanders unfairly, or has she made fair
points?
Her critiques have been unfair . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39%

She has made fair points . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47%
Have not heard criticism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
22. Do you think Bernie Sanders has criticized Hillary Clinton unfairly, or has he made fair
points?
His critiques have been unfair . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%

He has made fair points . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74%
Have not heard criticism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
23. Thinking about the Iowa [party] caucuses, could the results in Iowa make you rethink your
choice in the New Hampshire primary?
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters
Yes, because Iowa is an important test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%

No, Iowas results dont matter to New Hampshire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96%

New Hampshire
24. How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?
Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17%
Oppose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47%
Neutral . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36%
25. Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian?*

Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%
No . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
26. Thinking about politics these days, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?*
Very liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Moderate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35%
Conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Very Conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
27. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a ...?

Strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
Not very strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Lean Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
Independent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%
Lean Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13%
Not very strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Questions marked with an asterisk are only asked for respondents who had not answered in previous waves.
Earlier responses were used where available.

New Hampshire
28. Are you male or female?
Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46%
Female . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54%
29. In what year were you born? [Age recoded from birth year]
18-29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
30-44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%
45-64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47%
65+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
30. What racial or ethnic group best describes you?

White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93%
Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
31. What is the highest level of education you have completed?

HS or less . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28%
Some college . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34%
College grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%
Post grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%

New Hampshire
1. Attention to Campaign
How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2016 Presidential campaign so far?
Gender
A lot
Some
Not much
No attention so far
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
57%
34%
5%
4%
71%
22%
6%
2%
46%
44%
5%
5%
40%
41%
17%
2%
50%
36%
2%
12%
64%
32%
3%
0%
63%
30%
5%
2%
56%
35%
5%
4%
81%
19%
0%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(482)
(558)
(136)
(245)
(492)
(166)
(967)
100%
(1,040)
(17)
(3)
(53)

New Hampshire
2. Likelihood of Voting
How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential primary in New Hampshire?
Gender
Definitely will vote
Probably will vote
Maybe will vote
Probably will not vote
Definitely will not vote
Dont know
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
78%
7%
7%
2%
3%
2%
81%
3%
5%
5%
5%
0%
76%
11%
7%
0%
2%
4%
65%
3%
23%
0%
9%
0%
70%
6%
7%
7%
1%
10%
84%
9%
3%
0%
4%
0%
85%
8%
3%
3%
1%
0%
77%
8%
7%
2%
3%
2%
94%
0%
0%
0%
2%
3%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(482)
(558)
(136)
(245)
(492)
(166)
(967)
100%
(1,040)
(17)
(3)
(53)

New Hampshire
3. 2016 Primary Turnout

In 2016, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican Presidential primary?
Gender
Democratic
Republican
Neither
Dont know
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
32%
35%
9%
24%
31%
41%
9%
19%
34%
30%
8%
28%
35%
29%
9%
27%
40%
30%
12%
17%
31%
35%
8%
25%
21%
47%
2%
29%
32%
34%
9%
25%
29%
56%
5%
10%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(482)
(558)
(136)
(245)
(492)
(166)
(967)
100%
(1,040)
(17)
(3)
(53)

New Hampshire
4. First Choice Republican Candidate

Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the New Hampshire Republican Presidential primary in 2016?
Gender
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
7%
5%
7%
16%
4%
0%
0%
10%
3%
14%
0%
34%
0%
5%
2%
9%
12%
6%
0%
0%
13%
3%
13%
0%
37%
0%
10%
8%
4%
21%
2%
0%
1%
7%
3%
15%
0%
30%
0%
0%
4%
12%
17%
2%
0%
0%
8%
5%
10%
0%
41%
0%
7%
6%
4%
20%
3%
0%
1%
11%
2%
9%
0%
36%
0%
10%
4%
7%
10%
6%
0%
0%
7%
0%
23%
0%
32%
0%
8%
5%
7%
16%
4%
0%
0%
10%
3%
13%
0%
34%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(252)
(224)
100%
(476)
(96)
(228)
(111)
(440)
(41)
(4)
(1)
(31)

New Hampshire
5. First Choice Democratic Candidate

Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential primary in 2016?
Gender
Hillary Clinton
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
38%
5%
57%
0%
38%
6%
56%
0%
38%
4%
57%
1%
29%
0%
71%
0%
47%
9%
44%
0%
38%
0%
59%
2%
38%
3%
58%
1%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(171)
(289)
100%
(460)
(99)
(235)
(86)
(427)
(39)
(13)
(4)
(17)

New Hampshire
6. Republican Candidate Support

Which best describes your support for [First Choice Candidate Name] right now?
Gender
Very strong
Strong
Somewhat strong
Not too strong
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
36%
37%
23%
3%
43%
34%
23%
1%
29%
41%
24%
6%
45%
47%
8%
0%
29%
37%
29%
5%
39%
32%
28%
1%
35%
38%
24%
3%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(252)
(223)
100%
(475)
(96)
(227)
(111)
(439)
(41)
(4)
(1)
(31)

New Hampshire
7. Republican Candidate Certainty

What could [Candidate Name] do to make you completely decided?
Gender
Convince me they can really win
Convince me they stand with me on
the issues
Convince me they can be effective in
the job
Im never completely decided until
Election Day
None of these
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
37%
40%
34%
41%
38%
39%
38%
16%
14%
17%
13%
11%
26%
16%
29%
28%
29%
31%
34%
17%
29%
15%
3%
14%
3%
15%
5%
8%
6%
16%
2%
13%
6%
14%
4%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(145)
(158)
100%
(302)
(52)
(161)
(68)
(286)
(22)
(0)
(1)
(15)

New Hampshire
8. Enthusiasm for First Choice

How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?
Gender
Enthusiastic
Supporting with reservations
Considering as best alternative
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
64%
31%
5%
71%
25%
5%
59%
35%
5%
61%
38%
1%
63%
31%
6%
66%
29%
5%
62%
34%
4%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(171)
(287)
100%
(458)
(99)
(235)
(84)
(424)
(39)
(13)
(4)
(17)

New Hampshire
9. Republican Candidate Consideration Donald Trump

Youve told us youre supporting [Candidate Name] are there other candidates you could consider voting for...?
Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
31%
69%
31%
69%
30%
70%
34%
66%
31%
69%
32%
68%
30%
70%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(152)
(134)
100%
(287)
(55)
(127)
(67)
(260)
(38)
(3)
(1)
(22)

New Hampshire
10. Republican Candidate Consideration Ted Cruz

Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
45%
55%
47%
53%
43%
57%
56%
44%
46%
54%
48%
52%
46%
54%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(206)
(161)
100%
(367)
(75)
(165)
(91)
(340)
(37)
(4)
(1)
(23)
10

New Hampshire
11. Republican Candidate Consideration Marco Rubio

Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
54%
46%
51%
49%
56%
44%
51%
49%
55%
45%
55%
45%
54%
46%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(203)
(173)
100%
(376)
(79)
(192)
(76)
(350)
(30)
(4)
(1)
(22)
11

New Hampshire
12. Republican Candidate Consideration Chris Christie

Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
45%
55%
40%
60%
50%
50%
44%
56%
43%
57%
53%
47%
46%
54%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(216)
(186)
100%
(402)
(74)
(198)
(92)
(370)
(38)
(4)
(1)
(26)
12

New Hampshire
13. Republican Candidate Consideration Jeb Bush

Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
41%
59%
42%
58%
38%
62%
41%
59%
42%
58%
43%
57%
41%
59%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(223)
(172)
100%
(395)
(86)
(191)
(83)
(363)
(35)
(4)
(1)
(27)
13

New Hampshire
14. Republican Candidate Consideration John Kasich

Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
30%
70%
35%
65%
26%
74%
14%
86%
31%
69%
42%
58%
32%
68%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(205)
(171)
100%
(376)
(77)
(178)
(89)
(349)
(32)
(0)
(0)
(26)
14

New Hampshire
15. Republican Candidate Consideration Ben Carson

Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
33%
67%
27%
73%
41%
59%
38%
62%
36%
64%
37%
63%
34%
66%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(231)
(180)
100%
(411)
(84)
(195)
(91)
(378)
(41)
(4)
(1)
(27)
15

New Hampshire
16. Republican Candidate Approach Chris Christie

In trying to achieve their goals, do you feel each candidates approach would probably be...
Gender
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
16%
50%
34%
12%
45%
43%
21%
55%
24%
9%
50%
41%
19%
48%
33%
15%
58%
27%
16%
51%
33%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(250)
(212)
100%
(463)
(94)
(221)
(108)
(427)
(40)
(4)
(1)
(31)
16

New Hampshire
17. Republican Candidate Approach Donald Trump

Gender
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
55%
41%
4%
49%
46%
5%
61%
37%
2%
49%
47%
4%
54%
44%
2%
54%
44%
2%
55%
41%
4%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(251)
(220)
100%
(471)
(96)
(225)
(109)
(435)
(41)
(4)
(1)
(31)
17

New Hampshire
18. Republican Candidate Approach Ted Cruz

Gender
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
36%
52%
12%
39%
48%
12%
31%
57%
12%
26%
58%
16%
31%
55%
14%
42%
50%
8%
35%
53%
13%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(248)
(217)
100%
(465)
(94)
(224)
(108)
(429)
(40)
(4)
(1)
(31)
18

New Hampshire
19. Republican Candidate Approach Marco Rubio

Gender
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
14%
58%
27%
14%
55%
31%
14%
63%
23%
13%
53%
34%
15%
57%
28%
14%
61%
25%
14%
59%
27%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(250)
(216)
100%
(466)
(94)
(224)
(108)
(430)
(41)
(4)
(1)
(31)
19

New Hampshire
20. Republican Candidate Consistency Chris Christie

Do you feel these candidates have been consistent in what they stand for?
Gender
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
53%
47%
43%
57%
65%
35%
62%
38%
50%
50%
58%
42%
54%
46%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(245)
(210)
100%
(455)
(94)
(213)
(108)
(419)
(40)
(4)
(1)
(31)
20

New Hampshire
21. Republican Candidate Consistency Donald Trump

Gender
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
63%
37%
62%
38%
65%
35%
56%
44%
65%
35%
75%
25%
65%
35%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(238)
(211)
100%
(450)
(92)
(208)
(108)
(417)
(41)
(4)
(1)
(27)
21

New Hampshire
22. Republican Candidate Consistency Ted Cruz

Gender
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
65%
35%
62%
38%
68%
32%
68%
32%
66%
34%
65%
35%
66%
34%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(244)
(212)
100%
(456)
(94)
(215)
(107)
(420)
(40)
(4)
(1)
(31)
22

New Hampshire
23. Republican Candidate Consistency Marco Rubio

Gender
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
51%
49%
47%
53%
54%
46%
39%
61%
47%
53%
64%
36%
50%
50%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(244)
(211)
100%
(455)
(94)
(213)
(107)
(419)
(41)
(4)
(1)
(31)
23

New Hampshire
24. Republican Candidate Understanding Chris Christie

Regardless of who youre supporting, please tell us whether you feel each of these candidates gets it that is, understands how you and people like you feel right
now?
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
63%
37%
58%
42%
70%
30%
73%
27%
55%
45%
76%
24%
65%
35%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(250)
(219)
100%
(469)
(94)
(226)
(109)
(433)
(40)
(4)
(1)
(31)
24

New Hampshire
25. Republican Candidate Understanding Donald Trump

now?
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
71%
29%
68%
32%
74%
26%
72%
28%
70%
30%
76%
24%
72%
28%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(251)
(221)
100%
(472)
(96)
(226)
(109)
(435)
(41)
(4)
(1)
(31)
25

New Hampshire
26. Republican Candidate Understanding Ted Cruz

now?
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
59%
41%
54%
46%
65%
35%
66%
34%
60%
40%
59%
41%
59%
41%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(250)
(219)
100%
(470)
(94)
(227)
(109)
(433)
(40)
(4)
(1)
(31)
26

New Hampshire
27. Republican Candidate Understanding Marco Rubio

now?
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
60%
40%
54%
46%
67%
33%
61%
39%
56%
44%
71%
29%
60%
40%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(249)
(219)
100%
(468)
(94)
(224)
(109)
(432)
(41)
(4)
(1)
(31)
27

New Hampshire
28. Republican Vote Reasons

Whats most important: picking the candidate best prepared to...
Gender
Defend my faith and religious values
Win the General election in November
Fight terrorism
Shake up politics-as-usual
Bring back jobs and the American
economy
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
4%
26%
27%
15%
5%
28%
19%
17%
3%
24%
37%
13%
0%
22%
29%
22%
6%
20%
29%
14%
3%
41%
25%
14%
4%
25%
28%
16%
28%
32%
23%
27%
31%
17%
27%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(251)
(218)
100%
(469)
(96)
(227)
(105)
(433)
(41)
(4)
(1)
(31)
28

New Hampshire
29. Ted Cruz Birthplace

Do you think Ted Cruzs birthplace is a serious issue or not?
Gender
Serious
Not serious
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
23%
77%
25%
75%
20%
80%
22%
78%
18%
82%
25%
75%
21%
79%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(252)
(224)
100%
(476)
(96)
(228)
(111)
(440)
(41)
(4)
(1)
(31)
29

New Hampshire
30. Donald Trump NY Values

Does Donald Trumps being from New York make you think better of him, worse of him, or does it not matter to you?
Gender
Better
Worse
Does not matter
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
5%
9%
86%
6%
14%
80%
4%
4%
92%
8%
12%
79%
5%
9%
87%
3%
5%
92%
5%
6%
88%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(252)
(224)
100%
(476)
(96)
(228)
(111)
(440)
(41)
(4)
(1)
(31)
30

New Hampshire
31. Democratic Candidate Policies Health care policy

Regardless of who youre supporting, who do you think would do a better job on...?
Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Both equally
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
34%
48%
18%
29%
46%
25%
37%
48%
14%
28%
53%
19%
40%
45%
15%
37%
32%
31%
34%
46%
19%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(171)
(291)
100%
(461)
(102)
(235)
(85)
(428)
(39)
(13)
(4)
(16)
31

New Hampshire
32. Democratic Candidate Policies Wall Street reform

Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Both equally
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
11%
79%
10%
9%
85%
6%
12%
76%
12%
7%
80%
13%
12%
81%
7%
12%
73%
15%
11%
78%
11%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(170)
(292)
100%
(462)
(102)
(235)
(85)
(428)
(39)
(13)
(4)
(17)
32

New Hampshire
33. Democratic Candidate Policies Terrorism

Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Both equally
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
48%
22%
30%
53%
23%
24%
45%
21%
35%
41%
28%
30%
53%
14%
33%
56%
17%
27%
48%
21%
30%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(170)
(292)
100%
(462)
(102)
(236)
(85)
(428)
(39)
(13)
(4)
(17)
33

New Hampshire
34. Democratic Candidate Policies Taxes

Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Both equally
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
21%
63%
16%
21%
64%
15%
20%
62%
18%
15%
62%
23%
26%
59%
15%
17%
62%
21%
20%
62%
18%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(170)
(292)
100%
(462)
(102)
(236)
(85)
(428)
(39)
(13)
(4)
(17)
34

New Hampshire
35. Democratic Candidate Policies The economy and jobs

Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Both equally
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
25%
49%
26%
30%
50%
20%
21%
49%
30%
19%
62%
18%
29%
42%
28%
25%
39%
36%
26%
48%
26%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(171)
(292)
100%
(462)
(102)
(236)
(85)
(429)
(39)
(13)
(4)
(17)
35

New Hampshire
36. Democratic Candidate Policies Gun policy

Gender
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Both equally
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
43%
26%
31%
38%
30%
32%
47%
23%
31%
38%
29%
33%
50%
17%
32%
41%
25%
34%
43%
26%
31%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(170)
(292)
100%
(462)
(102)
(236)
(85)
(428)
(39)
(13)
(4)
(17)
36

New Hampshire
37. Democratic Candidate Proposals Hillary Clinton

From what youve seen or heard, which better describes the candidates policy proposals...
Gender
Realistic
Idealistic
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
77%
23%
84%
16%
73%
27%
81%
19%
80%
20%
78%
22%
77%
23%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(169)
(277)
100%
(446)
(95)
(230)
(81)
(413)
(39)
(13)
(4)
(16)
37

New Hampshire
38. Democratic Candidate Proposals Bernie Sanders

Gender
Realistic
Idealistic
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
46%
54%
46%
54%
46%
54%
48%
52%
43%
57%
50%
50%
47%
53%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(170)
(287)
100%
(458)
(100)
(235)
(84)
(424)
(39)
(13)
(4)
(17)
38

New Hampshire
39. Democratic Candidate Understanding Hillary Clinton

now?
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
60%
40%
58%
42%
60%
40%
54%
46%
67%
33%
62%
38%
61%
39%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(170)
(287)
100%
(457)
(100)
(235)
(83)
(424)
(39)
(13)
(4)
(17)
39

New Hampshire
40. Democratic Candidate Understanding Bernie Sanders

now?
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
95%
5%
94%
6%
95%
5%
96%
4%
95%
5%
94%
6%
95%
5%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(171)
(288)
100%
(459)
(100)
(235)
(84)
(425)
(39)
(13)
(4)
(17)
40

New Hampshire
41. Democratic Candidate Attention Hillary Clinton

As President, would each candidate ultimately do...?
Gender
What regular people want
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
61%
39%
64%
36%
59%
41%
65%
35%
53%
47%
60%
40%
61%
39%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(171)
(288)
100%
(459)
(102)
(235)
(83)
(425)
(39)
(13)
(4)
(17)
41

New Hampshire
42. Democratic Candidate Attention Bernie Sanders

Gender
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
3%
97%
3%
97%
3%
97%
0%
100%
4%
96%
0%
100%
3%
97%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(171)
(289)
100%
(460)
(102)
(235)
(84)
(426)
(39)
(13)
(4)
(17)
42

New Hampshire
43. Democratic Vote Reasons

When you vote in the New Hampshire primary, you will be most satisfied about having a chance to...
Gender
Support an historic candidacy
Get progressive things done
Give the Democrats a good chance to
win in November
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
7%
18%
38%
4%
24%
33%
9%
14%
41%
8%
6%
55%
7%
16%
35%
6%
31%
27%
7%
16%
39%
37%
39%
36%
31%
42%
35%
38%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(171)
(291)
100%
(462)
(102)
(235)
(86)
(428)
(39)
(13)
(4)
(17)
43

New Hampshire
44. Hillary Clinton Critiques to Sanders

Do you think Hillary Clinton has criticized Bernie Sanders unfairly, or has she made fair points?
Gender
Her critiques have been unfair
She has made fair points
Have not heard criticism
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
39%
47%
14%
37%
51%
12%
40%
45%
16%
36%
40%
24%
31%
56%
13%
52%
42%
6%
37%
47%
15%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(170)
(291)
100%
(461)
(102)
(236)
(84)
(427)
(39)
(13)
(4)
(17)
44

New Hampshire
45. Bernie Sanders Critiques to Clinton

Do you think Bernie Sanders has criticized Hillary Clinton unfairly, or has he made fair points?
Gender
His critiques have been unfair
He has made fair points
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
7%
74%
19%
7%
83%
9%
7%
69%
24%
4%
71%
26%
9%
72%
19%
7%
80%
13%
8%
72%
20%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(169)
(290)
100%
(460)
(102)
(235)
(83)
(426)
(39)
(13)
(4)
(17)
45

New Hampshire
46. Iowas Impact on New Hampshire Primary

Thinking about the Iowa [party] caucuses, could the results in Iowa make you rethink your choice in the New Hampshire primary?
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters
Gender
Yes, because Iowa is an important test
No, Iowas results dont matter to New
Hampshire
Totals
(Weighted N)
Total
Male
4%
3%
96%
Age group
Female
Race/Ethnicity
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
6%
13%
6%
3%
4%
97%
94%
87%
94%
97%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(937)
(423)
(515)
(80)
(197)
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
4%
96%
96%
100%
100%
100%
(464)
(196)
(868)
(17)
(5)
(48)
46

New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error
476 Likely Republican Primary Voters

January 18-21, 2016
6.8%
Ideology
A lot
Some
Not much
No attention so far
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
70%
28%
1%
0%
82%
17%
1%
0%
74%
25%
2%
0%
78%
21%
1%
0%
81%
19%
0%
0%
65%
33%
2%
0%
75%
24%
1%
0%
70%
29%
1%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(476)
(69)
(185)
(118)
(172)
(282)
(118)
(331)
Gender
A lot
Some
Not much
No attention so far
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
70%
28%
1%
0%
76%
24%
0%
0%
64%
34%
2%
0%
62%
38%
0%
0%
71%
28%
0%
0%
84%
12%
3%
0%
67%
31%
2%
0%
72%
27%
0%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(252)
(224)
100%
(476)
(96)
(228)
(111)
(239)
(216)
(41)

2. First Choice Republican Candidate

Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the New Hampshire Republican Presidential primary in 2016?
Ideology
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
7%
5%
7%
16%
4%
0%
0%
10%
3%
14%
0%
34%
0%
4%
3%
2%
24%
2%
0%
0%
6%
8%
14%
0%
37%
0%
6%
5%
7%
20%
7%
0%
1%
5%
3%
13%
0%
33%
0%
8%
4%
8%
6%
3%
0%
0%
19%
1%
23%
0%
28%
1%
1%
6%
3%
26%
3%
0%
1%
4%
5%
8%
0%
42%
0%
11%
4%
8%
10%
5%
0%
0%
14%
2%
16%
0%
30%
0%
11%
13%
3%
21%
6%
0%
2%
1%
4%
14%
0%
25%
0%
6%
2%
7%
14%
4%
0%
0%
14%
3%
13%
0%
38%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(476)
(69)
(185)
(118)
(172)
(282)
(118)
(331)
Gender
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
7%
5%
7%
16%
4%
0%
0%
10%
3%
14%
0%
34%
0%
5%
2%
9%
12%
6%
0%
0%
13%
3%
13%
0%
37%
0%
10%
8%
4%
21%
2%
0%
1%
7%
3%
15%
0%
30%
0%
0%
4%
12%
17%
2%
0%
0%
8%
5%
10%
0%
41%
0%
7%
6%
4%
20%
3%
0%
1%
11%
2%
9%
0%
36%
0%
10%
4%
7%
10%
6%
0%
0%
7%
0%
23%
0%
32%
0%
5%
5%
9%
17%
3%
0%
1%
9%
2%
15%
0%
34%
0%
10%
4%
5%
14%
6%
0%
0%
12%
3%
13%
0%
33%
0%
continued on the next page . . .

continued from previous page

Age group
Gender
Totals
(Weighted N)
Total
Male
Female
100%
100%
100%
(476)
(252)
(224)
Party ID
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(96)
(228)
(111)
(239)
(216)
(41)

3. Republican Candidate Support

Which best describes your support for [First Choice Candidate Name] right now?
Ideology
Very strong
Strong
Somewhat strong
Not too strong
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
36%
37%
23%
3%
59%
32%
9%
0%
35%
42%
23%
0%
43%
35%
19%
3%
45%
36%
19%
1%
32%
38%
27%
4%
37%
31%
32%
0%
36%
40%
21%
3%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(475)
(69)
(185)
(117)
(172)
(281)
(118)
(330)
Gender
Very strong
Strong
Somewhat strong
Not too strong
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
36%
37%
23%
3%
43%
34%
23%
1%
29%
41%
24%
6%
45%
47%
8%
0%
29%
37%
29%
5%
39%
32%
28%
1%
39%
39%
20%
2%
32%
37%
28%
2%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(252)
(223)
100%
(475)
(96)
(227)
(111)
(239)
(215)
(41)

4. Republican Candidate Certainty

What could [Candidate Name] do to make you completely decided?
Ideology
the issues
the job
Election Day
None of these
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
37%
46%
47%
40%
36%
45%
34%
16%
10%
15%
17%
13%
26%
10%
29%
25%
17%
28%
30%
11%
36%
15%
3%
16%
3%
11%
9%
13%
2%
17%
5%
14%
4%
15%
4%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(121)
(67)
(95)
(193)
(74)
(210)
100%
(302)
(28)
Gender

the issues
the job
Election Day
None of these
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
37%
40%
34%
41%
38%
39%
42%
35%
16%
14%
17%
13%
11%
26%
14%
18%
29%
28%
29%
31%
34%
17%
30%
25%
15%
3%
14%
3%
15%
5%
8%
6%
16%
2%
13%
6%
11%
3%
18%
5%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(145)
(158)
100%
(302)
(52)
(161)
(68)
(146)
(146)
(22)

5. Republican Candidate Consideration Donald Trump

Ideology
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
31%
69%
40%
60%
24%
76%
47%
53%
22%
78%
34%
66%
29%
71%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(111)
(78)
(88)
(181)
(78)
(189)
100%
(287)
(36)
Gender
Yes, could consider

Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
31%
69%
31%
69%
30%
70%
34%
66%
31%
69%
32%
68%
33%
67%
31%
69%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(152)
(134)
100%
(287)
(55)
(127)
(67)
(143)
(129)
(38)

6. Republican Candidate Consideration Ted Cruz

Ideology
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
45%
55%
55%
45%
27%
73%
78%
22%
30%
70%
66%
34%
39%
61%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(140)
(102)
(120)
(232)
(86)
(261)
100%
(367)
(45)
Gender
Yes, could consider

Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
45%
55%
47%
53%
43%
57%
56%
44%
46%
54%
48%
52%
48%
52%
43%
57%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(206)
(161)
100%
(367)
(75)
(165)
(91)
(179)
(174)
(37)

7. Republican Candidate Consideration Marco Rubio

Ideology
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
54%
46%
45%
55%
65%
35%
48%
52%
54%
46%
54%
46%
55%
45%
54%
46%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(376)
(55)
(147)
(81)
(139)
(225)
(90)
(270)
Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
54%
46%
51%
49%
56%
44%
51%
49%
55%
45%
55%
45%
57%
43%
51%
49%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(203)
(173)
100%
(376)
(79)
(192)
(76)
(185)
(175)
(30)

8. Republican Candidate Consideration Chris Christie

Ideology
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
45%
55%
42%
58%
41%
59%
56%
44%
37%
63%
49%
51%
43%
57%
45%
55%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(402)
(62)
(151)
(97)
(142)
(244)
(101)
(280)
Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
45%
55%
40%
60%
50%
50%
44%
56%
43%
57%
53%
47%
45%
55%
41%
59%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(216)
(186)
100%
(402)
(74)
(198)
(92)
(196)
(185)
(38)

9. Republican Candidate Consideration Jeb Bush

Ideology
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
41%
59%
26%
74%
34%
66%
52%
48%
35%
65%
43%
57%
27%
73%
44%
56%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(395)
(58)
(151)
(99)
(145)
(231)
(91)
(281)
Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
41%
59%
42%
58%
38%
62%
41%
59%
42%
58%
43%
57%
37%
63%
43%
57%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(223)
(172)
100%
(395)
(86)
(191)
(83)
(203)
(171)
(35)
10

10. Republican Candidate Consideration John Kasich

Ideology
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
30%
70%
10%
90%
35%
65%
43%
57%
23%
77%
37%
63%
28%
72%
32%
68%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(376)
(57)
(154)
(84)
(139)
(218)
(102)
(251)
Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
30%
70%
35%
65%
26%
74%
14%
86%
31%
69%
42%
58%
28%
72%
36%
64%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(205)
(171)
100%
(376)
(77)
(178)
(89)
(195)
(161)
(32)
11

11. Republican Candidate Consideration Ben Carson

Ideology
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
33%
67%
52%
48%
41%
59%
16%
84%
48%
52%
26%
74%
40%
60%
31%
69%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(411)
(57)
(157)
(103)
(140)
(250)
(89)
(296)
Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
33%
67%
27%
73%
41%
59%
38%
62%
36%
64%
37%
63%
35%
65%
33%
67%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(231)
(180)
100%
(411)
(84)
(195)
(91)
(206)
(184)
(41)
12

12. Republican Candidate Approach Chris Christie

Ideology
Tea Party
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
16%
50%
34%
2%
30%
68%
12%
52%
36%
22%
56%
22%
12%
34%
54%
20%
59%
21%
8%
49%
43%
20%
50%
30%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(463)
(68)
(182)
(115)
(168)
(273)
(118)
(318)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
16%
50%
34%
12%
45%
43%
21%
55%
24%
9%
50%
41%
19%
48%
33%
15%
58%
27%
9%
50%
41%
24%
47%
28%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(250)
(212)
100%
(463)
(94)
(221)
(108)
(236)
(206)
(40)
13

13. Republican Candidate Approach Donald Trump

Ideology
Tea Party
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
55%
41%
4%
39%
50%
11%
54%
43%
3%
62%
37%
2%
37%
57%
6%
63%
34%
2%
49%
43%
8%
55%
42%
2%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(471)
(69)
(182)
(116)
(168)
(281)
(118)
(326)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
55%
41%
4%
49%
46%
5%
61%
37%
2%
49%
47%
4%
54%
44%
2%
54%
44%
2%
52%
42%
5%
56%
42%
2%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(251)
(220)
100%
(471)
(96)
(225)
(109)
(238)
(212)
(41)
14

14. Republican Candidate Approach Ted Cruz

Ideology
Tea Party
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
36%
52%
12%
15%
76%
9%
31%
59%
10%
60%
27%
14%
10%
77%
13%
50%
37%
13%
19%
76%
4%
40%
44%
16%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(465)
(69)
(182)
(114)
(167)
(277)
(116)
(323)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
36%
52%
12%
39%
48%
12%
31%
57%
12%
26%
58%
16%
31%
55%
14%
42%
50%
8%
31%
54%
15%
41%
49%
10%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(248)
(217)
100%
(465)
(94)
(224)
(108)
(233)
(211)
(40)
15

15. Republican Candidate Approach Marco Rubio

Ideology
Tea Party
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
14%
58%
27%
1%
42%
56%
8%
65%
27%
20%
57%
23%
4%
50%
46%
21%
62%
17%
9%
59%
31%
16%
57%
28%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(466)
(68)
(182)
(115)
(168)
(277)
(118)
(321)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
14%
58%
27%
14%
55%
31%
14%
63%
23%
13%
53%
34%
15%
57%
28%
14%
61%
25%
7%
64%
29%
23%
52%
25%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(250)
(216)
100%
(466)
(94)
(224)
(108)
(236)
(209)
(41)
16

16. Republican Candidate Consistency Chris Christie

Ideology
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
53%
47%
41%
59%
43%
57%
68%
32%
35%
65%
61%
39%
39%
61%
56%
44%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(455)
(66)
(175)
(116)
(166)
(267)
(111)
(318)
Gender
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
53%
47%
43%
57%
65%
35%
62%
38%
50%
50%
58%
42%
55%
45%
49%
51%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(245)
(210)
100%
(455)
(94)
(213)
(108)
(227)
(207)
(40)
17

17. Republican Candidate Consistency Donald Trump

Ideology
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
63%
37%
67%
33%
53%
47%
68%
32%
66%
34%
63%
37%
68%
32%
62%
38%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(450)
(67)
(169)
(113)
(163)
(265)
(107)
(316)
Gender
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
63%
37%
62%
38%
65%
35%
56%
44%
65%
35%
75%
25%
60%
40%
71%
29%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(238)
(211)
100%
(450)
(92)
(208)
(108)
(227)
(202)
(41)
18

18. Republican Candidate Consistency Ted Cruz

Ideology
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
65%
35%
74%
26%
73%
27%
51%
49%
81%
19%
56%
44%
92%
8%
57%
43%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(456)
(67)
(177)
(116)
(168)
(267)
(110)
(320)
Gender
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
65%
35%
62%
38%
68%
32%
68%
32%
66%
34%
65%
35%
67%
33%
63%
37%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(244)
(212)
100%
(456)
(94)
(215)
(107)
(226)
(208)
(40)
19

19. Republican Candidate Consistency Marco Rubio

Ideology
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
51%
49%
42%
58%
53%
47%
52%
48%
40%
60%
55%
45%
62%
38%
45%
55%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(455)
(66)
(176)
(116)
(167)
(267)
(110)
(319)
Gender
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
51%
49%
47%
53%
54%
46%
39%
61%
47%
53%
64%
36%
51%
49%
49%
51%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(244)
(211)
100%
(455)
(94)
(213)
(107)
(227)
(207)
(41)
20

20. Republican Candidate Understanding Chris Christie

now?
Ideology
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
63%
37%
63%
37%
67%
33%
62%
38%
59%
41%
65%
35%
68%
32%
61%
39%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(469)
(68)
(183)
(117)
(171)
(277)
(118)
(324)
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
63%
37%
58%
42%
70%
30%
73%
27%
55%
45%
76%
24%
69%
31%
56%
44%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(250)
(219)
100%
(469)
(94)
(226)
(109)
(235)
(213)
(40)
21

21. Republican Candidate Understanding Donald Trump

now?
Ideology
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
71%
29%
83%
17%
74%
26%
67%
33%
89%
11%
62%
38%
77%
23%
70%
30%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(472)
(69)
(183)
(116)
(171)
(279)
(118)
(326)
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
71%
29%
68%
32%
74%
26%
72%
28%
70%
30%
76%
24%
73%
27%
72%
28%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(251)
(221)
100%
(472)
(96)
(226)
(109)
(237)
(213)
(41)
22

22. Republican Candidate Understanding Ted Cruz

now?
Ideology
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
59%
41%
83%
17%
69%
31%
35%
65%
83%
17%
44%
56%
85%
15%
50%
50%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(470)
(69)
(183)
(117)
(171)
(277)
(118)
(325)
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
59%
41%
54%
46%
65%
35%
66%
34%
60%
40%
59%
41%
65%
35%
52%
48%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(250)
(219)
100%
(470)
(94)
(227)
(109)
(236)
(213)
(40)
23

23. Republican Candidate Understanding Marco Rubio

now?
Ideology
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
60%
40%
53%
47%
69%
31%
58%
42%
60%
40%
59%
41%
72%
28%
55%
45%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(468)
(68)
(183)
(115)
(171)
(276)
(117)
(323)
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
60%
40%
54%
46%
67%
33%
61%
39%
56%
44%
71%
29%
65%
35%
55%
45%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(249)
(219)
100%
(468)
(94)
(224)
(109)
(236)
(211)
(41)
24

24. Republican Vote Reasons

Whats most important: picking the candidate best prepared to...
Ideology
Fight terrorism
economy
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
4%
26%
27%
15%
10%
28%
17%
26%
5%
26%
28%
16%
0%
25%
24%
8%
5%
29%
26%
18%
3%
21%
30%
13%
12%
36%
29%
12%
1%
20%
28%
16%
28%
18%
26%
42%
22%
33%
11%
35%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(469)
(69)
(184)
(117)
(172)
(275)
(112)
(330)
Gender
Fight terrorism
economy
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
4%
26%
27%
15%
5%
28%
19%
17%
3%
24%
37%
13%
0%
22%
29%
22%
6%
20%
29%
14%
3%
41%
25%
14%
1%
28%
27%
15%
7%
23%
27%
16%
28%
32%
23%
27%
31%
17%
30%
27%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(251)
(218)
100%
(469)
(96)
(227)
(105)
(237)
(211)
(41)
25

25. Ted Cruz Birthplace

Do you think Ted Cruzs birthplace is a serious issue or not?
Ideology
Serious
Not serious
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
23%
77%
23%
77%
17%
83%
32%
68%
22%
78%
21%
79%
9%
91%
25%
75%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(476)
(69)
(185)
(118)
(172)
(282)
(118)
(331)
Gender
Serious
Not serious
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
23%
77%
25%
75%
20%
80%
22%
78%
18%
82%
25%
75%
22%
78%
21%
79%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(252)
(224)
100%
(476)
(96)
(228)
(111)
(239)
(216)
(41)
26

26. Donald Trump NY Values

Does Donald Trumps being from New York make you think better of him, worse of him, or does it not matter to you?
Ideology
Better
Worse
Does not matter
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
5%
9%
86%
0%
13%
87%
8%
9%
84%
3%
10%
87%
9%
15%
76%
4%
4%
93%
12%
12%
76%
3%
7%
90%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(476)
(69)
(185)
(118)
(172)
(282)
(118)
(331)
Gender
Better
Worse
Does not matter
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
5%
9%
86%
6%
14%
80%
4%
4%
92%
8%
12%
79%
5%
9%
87%
3%
5%
92%
7%
7%
85%
3%
10%
87%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(252)
(224)
100%
(476)
(96)
(228)
(111)
(239)
(216)
(41)
27


Thinking about the Iowa Republican caucuses, could the results in Iowa make you rethink your choice in the New Hampshire primary?
Ideology
Total
Hampshire
Totals
(Weighted N)
Very conservative
Tea Party
Conservative
Moderate
Totals
(Weighted N)
Yes
No
Yes
No
7%
0%
7%
6%
2%
8%
5%
6%
93%
100%
93%
94%
98%
92%
95%
94%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(475)
(69)
(184)
(117)
(171)
(282)
(118)
(329)
Gender
Hampshire
Evangelical
Total
Male
7%
Age group
Female
18-29
4%
10%
93%
96%
90%
100%
100%
100%
(475)
(251)
(223)
Party ID
30-44
45-64
9%
5%
6%
8%
0%
91%
95%
94%
92%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(96)
(228)
(110)
(239)
(216)
(41)
65+
Republican
Independent
28

New Hampshire Likely Democratic Voters
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error
463 Likely Democratic Primary Voters

January 18-21, 2016
8.2%
Ideology
A lot
Some
Not much
No attention so far
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
75%
24%
0%
0%
81%
19%
0%
0%
79%
20%
0%
0%
74%
26%
0%
0%
79%
20%
0%
0%
73%
27%
0%
0%
59%
41%
0%
0%
80%
20%
0%
0%
79%
21%
1%
0%
77%
23%
0%
0%
72%
27%
1%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(76)
(142)
(137)
(171)
(292)
100%
(463)
(102)
(236)
(86)
(299)
(155)
(39)

2. First Choice Democratic Candidate

Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential primary in 2016?
Ideology
Hillary Clinton
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
38%
5%
57%
0%
17%
1%
81%
0%
44%
0%
55%
0%
47%
7%
46%
0%
38%
6%
56%
0%
38%
4%
57%
1%
29%
0%
71%
0%
47%
9%
44%
0%
38%
0%
59%
2%
49%
4%
48%
0%
19%
6%
74%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(76)
(142)
(137)
(171)
(289)
100%
(460)
(99)
(235)
(86)
(299)
(153)
(39)

3. Enthusiasm for First Choice

How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?
Ideology
Enthusiastic
Supporting with reservations
Considering as best alternative
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
64%
31%
5%
82%
17%
1%
69%
28%
3%
68%
30%
2%
71%
25%
5%
59%
35%
5%
61%
38%
1%
63%
31%
6%
66%
29%
5%
68%
29%
3%
57%
35%
7%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(76)
(141)
(136)
(171)
(287)
100%
(458)
(99)
(235)
(84)
(298)
(153)
(39)

4. Democratic Candidate Policies Health care policy

Ideology
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Both equally
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
34%
48%
18%
17%
81%
2%
34%
44%
22%
37%
34%
29%
29%
46%
25%
37%
48%
14%
28%
53%
19%
40%
45%
15%
37%
32%
31%
39%
47%
14%
25%
50%
25%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(75)
(142)
(137)
(171)
(291)
100%
(461)
(102)
(235)
(85)
(298)
(155)
(39)

5. Democratic Candidate Policies Wall Street reform

Ideology
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Both equally
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
11%
79%
10%
7%
87%
7%
9%
81%
10%
16%
73%
12%
9%
85%
6%
12%
76%
12%
7%
80%
13%
12%
81%
7%
12%
73%
15%
13%
77%
10%
6%
86%
9%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(76)
(142)
(137)
(170)
(292)
100%
(462)
(102)
(235)
(85)
(299)
(155)
(39)

6. Democratic Candidate Policies Terrorism

Ideology
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Both equally
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
48%
22%
30%
30%
49%
21%
50%
16%
34%
58%
17%
25%
53%
23%
24%
45%
21%
35%
41%
28%
30%
53%
14%
33%
56%
17%
27%
54%
19%
27%
37%
26%
37%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(76)
(141)
(137)
(170)
(292)
100%
(462)
(102)
(236)
(85)
(299)
(155)
(39)

7. Democratic Candidate Policies Taxes

Ideology
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Both equally
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
21%
63%
16%
16%
79%
5%
25%
52%
23%
27%
62%
10%
21%
64%
15%
20%
62%
18%
15%
62%
23%
26%
59%
15%
17%
62%
21%
27%
53%
20%
10%
81%
10%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(76)
(141)
(137)
(170)
(292)
100%
(462)
(102)
(236)
(85)
(299)
(155)
(39)

8. Democratic Candidate Policies The economy and jobs

Ideology
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Both equally
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
25%
49%
26%
17%
72%
10%
23%
50%
27%
36%
38%
26%
30%
50%
20%
21%
49%
30%
19%
62%
18%
29%
42%
28%
25%
39%
36%
32%
45%
23%
11%
57%
31%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(76)
(142)
(137)
(171)
(292)
100%
(462)
(102)
(236)
(85)
(299)
(155)
(39)

9. Democratic Candidate Policies Gun policy

Ideology
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Both equally
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
43%
26%
31%
36%
44%
20%
49%
24%
27%
46%
20%
35%
38%
30%
32%
47%
23%
31%
38%
29%
33%
50%
17%
32%
41%
25%
34%
50%
24%
26%
32%
27%
41%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(76)
(141)
(137)
(170)
(292)
100%
(462)
(102)
(236)
(85)
(299)
(155)
(39)

10. Democratic Candidate Proposals Hillary Clinton

Ideology
Realistic
Idealistic
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
77%
23%
70%
30%
83%
17%
83%
17%
84%
16%
73%
27%
81%
19%
80%
20%
78%
22%
82%
18%
71%
29%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(75)
(135)
(128)
(169)
(277)
100%
(446)
(95)
(230)
(81)
(286)
(152)
(39)
10

11. Democratic Candidate Proposals Bernie Sanders

Ideology
Realistic
Idealistic
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
46%
54%
58%
42%
42%
58%
43%
57%
46%
54%
46%
54%
48%
52%
43%
57%
50%
50%
46%
54%
49%
51%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(76)
(137)
(136)
(170)
(287)
100%
(458)
(100)
(235)
(84)
(298)
(152)
(39)
11

12. Democratic Candidate Understanding Hillary Clinton

now?
Ideology
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
60%
40%
44%
56%
68%
32%
64%
36%
58%
42%
60%
40%
54%
46%
67%
33%
62%
38%
66%
34%
47%
53%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(76)
(141)
(134)
(170)
(287)
100%
(457)
(100)
(235)
(83)
(295)
(154)
(39)
12

13. Democratic Candidate Understanding Bernie Sanders

now?
Ideology
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
95%
5%
99%
1%
95%
5%
92%
8%
94%
6%
95%
5%
96%
4%
95%
5%
94%
6%
94%
6%
98%
2%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(76)
(140)
(136)
(171)
(288)
100%
(459)
(100)
(235)
(84)
(296)
(154)
(39)
13

14. Democratic Candidate Attention Hillary Clinton

Ideology
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
61%
39%
78%
22%
55%
45%
52%
48%
64%
36%
59%
41%
65%
35%
53%
47%
60%
40%
54%
46%
74%
26%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(76)
(139)
(135)
(171)
(288)
100%
(459)
(102)
(235)
(83)
(296)
(155)
(39)
14

15. Democratic Candidate Attention Bernie Sanders

Ideology
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
3%
97%
0%
100%
1%
99%
4%
96%
3%
97%
3%
97%
0%
100%
4%
96%
0%
100%
3%
97%
2%
98%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(76)
(140)
(136)
(171)
(289)
100%
(460)
(102)
(235)
(84)
(297)
(154)
(39)
15

16. Democratic Vote Reasons

When you vote in the New Hampshire primary, you will be most satisfied about having a chance to...
Ideology
Support an historic candidacy
Get progressive things done
Give the Democrats a good chance to
win in November
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
7%
18%
38%
3%
17%
55%
11%
12%
38%
3%
23%
26%
4%
24%
33%
9%
14%
41%
8%
6%
55%
7%
16%
35%
6%
31%
27%
6%
12%
39%
8%
27%
39%
37%
25%
39%
48%
39%
36%
31%
42%
35%
43%
26%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(76)
(141)
(137)
(171)
(291)
100%
(462)
(102)
(235)
(86)
(299)
(154)
(39)
16

17. Hillary Clinton Critiques to Sanders

Do you think Hillary Clinton has criticized Bernie Sanders unfairly, or has she made fair points?
Ideology
Her critiques have been unfair
She has made fair points
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
39%
47%
14%
58%
24%
18%
35%
55%
10%
39%
50%
11%
37%
51%
12%
40%
45%
16%
36%
40%
24%
31%
56%
13%
52%
42%
6%
38%
50%
12%
39%
41%
20%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(76)
(141)
(136)
(170)
(291)
100%
(461)
(102)
(236)
(84)
(299)
(155)
(39)
17

18. Bernie Sanders Critiques to Clinton

Do you think Bernie Sanders has criticized Hillary Clinton unfairly, or has he made fair points?
Ideology
His critiques have been unfair
He has made fair points
Totals
(Weighted N)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Very liberal
Liberal
Moderate
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Democrat
Independent
7%
74%
19%
7%
70%
23%
7%
77%
16%
7%
79%
13%
7%
83%
9%
7%
69%
24%
4%
71%
26%
9%
72%
19%
7%
80%
13%
10%
72%
18%
2%
77%
21%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(76)
(139)
(137)
(169)
(290)
100%
(460)
(102)
(235)
(83)
(298)
(154)
(39)
18


Thinking about the Iowa Democratic caucuses, could the results in Iowa make you rethink your choice in the New Hampshire primary?
Ideology
Total
Hampshire
Totals
(Weighted N)
Very liberal
Liberal
Gender
Moderate
Male
Age group
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
Party ID
65+
Democrat
Independent
2%
10%
0%
0%
2%
2%
3%
1%
0%
3%
0%
98%
90%
100%
100%
98%
98%
97%
99%
100%
97%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(76)
(142)
(137)
(171)
(292)
100%
(463)
(102)
(236)
(86)
(299)
(155)
(39)
19

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker: New Hampshire, January 2016

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker: New Hampshire, January 2016

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

1040 Registered Voters