Dr Zain Yusufzai Chapter # 8 (Page #)

Estimate Activity Duration, Resource Requirements, and Cost

 The duration of a project is the elapsed time in business

working days, not including weekends, holidays, or other non
working days. Duration is different from work effort. Work
effort is labor required to complete an activity.
Causes Of Variation In Activity Duration
There are several causes of variation in the actual activity duration, as
discussed in the following:
1. Varying Skill Levels
2. Unexpected Events
3. Efficiency of wok time
4. Mistakes and Misunderstandings
Elapsed Time vs. Labor Time vs. Productive Time
It is also important to understand the difference between labor time and
clock time.
If a person could work at perfect efficiency, he or she could accomplish
ten hours of work in ten hours. Such a person would be truly unique, for
what is more likely is daydreaming, learning time, a change of approach,
rework and so on. Several estimates for how efficient a person is have
been put forward. They typically range from 66 to 75 percent.

Resource Loading Versus Activity Duration

 The duration of an activity is influenced by the amount of
resources scheduled to work on it.
 There is not necessarily a direct linear relationship
between the amount of resource assigned to an activity and its
duration.
 Adding more resources to hold activity duration within the
planning limits can be effective.
 Doubling the resources sounds like a technology
breakthrough in shortening duration.
 New kinds of work will emerge from the addition of a
resource to an activity
 Another consideration for the project manager is the
impact on risk that results form adding another resource
 The more people working on an activity, the more likely
one will be absent, the higher the likelihood of a mistake being
made, and the more likely they will get in each other’s way

Effective Project Management 1

Robert K. Wysocki, Robert Beck Jr, David B. Crane
 Dr Zain Yusufzai Chapter # 8 (Page #)

Variation in Activity Duration

 Varying skill levels
 Unexpected events
 Efficiency of work time
 Mistake and misunderstandings

Six Methods for Estimating Activity Duration

 Similarity to other activities
 Historical data
 Expert advice
 Delphi technique
 Three point technique
 Wide band Delphi technique
Five Methods for Estimating Activity Duration
1. Similarity to other activities
Some of the activates in your WBS may be similar to activities completed
in other projects

2. Historical Data
This is getting ahead of ourselves somewhat but every good
management methodology will contain a project notebook. In this note
book you will have recorded the estimated and actual durations of
activities. It is this historical record that can now be used on the current
project.

3. Expert Advice
When the project involves a breakthrough technology. In these cases
you will have to appeal to outside authorities. Vendors may be a good
source, as will non-competitors who are using that technology.

4. Delphi Technique
This is a group technique that extracts and summarizes the knowledge
of the group to arrive at an estimate.

5. Three-point Technique

In order to use the method we will need three estimates of activity

duration: optimistic, pessimistic and mist likely. The optimistic time is
defined as the shortest duration one has had or might expect to
experience given that everything happens as was expected. The
pessimistic time is that duration that would be experienced (or has been
experienced) if everything that could go wrong did go wrong and yet the

Effective Project Management 2

Robert K. Wysocki, Robert Beck Jr, David B. Crane
 Dr Zain Yusufzai Chapter # 8 (Page #)

activity was completed. Finally the mist likely time is that time usually
experienced.

 Estimation precision

Resources
 People
 Facilities
 Money
 Materials

People as a Resource
 Skill Matrices
 Skill categories
 Skill levels

Estimating Duration as A Function Of Resource Availability

 The Duration Itself

 The total amount of work, as in person hours/days that will
be done on the activity by a resource
 The percent per day of his or her time that the resource
can devote to working on it
 Assign as a total work and constant percent/day
 Assign as a duration and total work effort
 Assign as a duration and percent /day
 Assign as a profile

Estimating Cost

 Material Costs
 Labor Costs

(JPP) session
 Get it roughly right
 Spend more effort on front end activities than on back end
activities
 Consensus is all that is needed
Effective Project Management 3
Robert K. Wysocki, Robert Beck Jr, David B. Crane