Phuong Phap Nghien Cuu Khoa Hoc Tap 1 p2 Le Huy Ba

Phng phap nghien cu khoa hoc
CHNG 10
THU THP S LIU DNG

CC THANG IM THI
10.1. CC CHC NNG CA NHNG THANG IM THI
Mt nh nghin cu dng mt bn cu hi hay mt bn danh sch
phng vn iu tra thi ngi tr li v mt vn no trong
nghin cu mi trng sinh thi nhn vn, c th dng mt lot cc cu hi
hoc cu pht biu chn mt. lm vy, ta phi xy dng hoc la chn
cc cu hi hoc cu tr li phn nh vn ang quan tm. Ngi tr li
c yu cu ch ra mc ng / khng ng hoc hi lng/khng hi
lng bng cch chn mc tr li hoc mt s trong mt thang im bng s
thch hp.
Mt vn c nhiu kha cnh. V d: thi ca cng ng vi vic
cung cp mt dch v c th no bao gm thi ca h vi nhu cu ca
dch v, cch phn phi, v tr ca n, trang thit b cung cp cho ngi
dng, cch hnh x, nng lc ca nhn vin, tc dng v hiu qu ca dch
v vv... Cc v d khc tng t nh thi ca nhn vin vi vic qun l
trong t chc ca h, thi ca nhn vin vi vic di tha v iu chuyn
cng vic, thi ca y t vi cheat v hp hi, thi ca ngi tiu dng
vi mt sn phm c th, thi ca sinh vin vi mt ging vin, thi
ca nhn vin vi mt k hoch chin lc ca t chc ca h c th phn
tch theo cng mt cch.
Ngi tr li c th c cc thi khc nhau i vi cc vn khc
nhau. Nghin cu vin, khi xc nh chc chn cc thi theo cch thng
thng, cu trc cu hi c thit k tm hiu thi ca ngi tr li
i vi tt c cc kha cnh ny mt cch ring bit trn mt thang im
phn theo loi hoc theo s. Gii hn chnh ca phng php ny l rt kh
rt ra k lun v thi chung ca ngi tr li t cc phn hi. V d, gi
185
GS-TSKH Le Huy Ba (Chu bien)
s bn mun tm hiu thi ca cc sinh vin v mt ging vin no .

C rt nhiu kha cnh v ging dy: ni dung bi ging; cch t chc cc
hc c; kh nng ca ging vin trong cc hc liu dng giao tip; bi v
cch trnh by; hiu bit vn ; trch nhim; ng gi; vv. Vi cc kha
cnh khc nhau, sinh vin c th c cc nh gi khc nhau. l, mt
ging vin c th c sinh vin nh gi rt cao v hiu bit v kh nng
v chuyn mn ca c gio nhng li khng cho l ngi truyn t tt.
Hn na, sinh vin c th c nhng quan im rt khc nhau v cng mt
kha cnh trong vic ging dy ca mt gio vin no . Mt s sinh vin
cho rng ging vin l ngi truyn t tt v s khc th li khng cho nh
th. Vn chnh l lm sao ta c th tm ra thi chung ca sinh vin
v ging vin? Lm sao ta c th kt hp cc phn hi t nhng kha cnh
khc nhau ca mt vn a ra mt ch s phn nh mt thi chung
v vn ? Cc thang nh gi thi ng mt vai tr quan trng
vt qua kh khn ny.
Cc thang nh gi thi o lng cng ca thi t nhng
ngi tr li v cc kha cnh khc nhau ca mt tnh hung hay mt vn
v cung cp cc k thut kt hp cc thi v nhng kha cnh khc
nhau thnh mt ch s chung. iu ny gim ri ro ca mt vic ngi tr
li by t quan im li b nh hng ca quan im t mt hoc hai kha
cnh ca tnh hung hay vn ny.
10.2. CC KH KHN TRONG VIC PHT TRIN THANG NH
GI THI
C ba kh khn chnh trong vic pht trin thang nh gi thi :
1. Ta phi cp n nhng kha cnh no ca vn hay tnh hung
khi tm cch c lng mt thi ? V d, trong cc v d nu trn, kha
cnh no ca vic ging dy nn c nu ln trong mt thang nh gi thi
sinh vin vi ging vin ca h?
2. Chng ta phi theo quy trnh no kt hp cc kha cnh khc
nhau nhm c mt ci nhn tng qut?
186
3. Lm sao ta c th m bo rng mt thang nh gi no c th

thc s o lng c ci cn o?
Vn u tin v cc k quan trng v n quyt nh vn th ba:
Phm vi m mt nhn nh phn nh c vn chnh ph thuc ch yu
vo gi tr ca mt thang nh gi. Bn c th gii quyt vn th ba bng
cch m bo nhn nh ca bn v cc kha cnh khc nhau c mt mi
lin h hp l vi vn chnh ang nghin cu. Lin h cng ln, gi tr
cng cao. Cc thang nh gi khc nhau (Likert, Thurstone, Guttman) cung
cp cu tr li cho kh khn th hai. N hng dn bn qu trnh kp hp
cc thi i vi nhng kha cnh khc nhau ca mt vn thng qua
kh ca tng quy trnh, thay i tu tng thang nh gi. V d, thang nh
gi Guttman kh lm hn thang ng gi Likert nhiu.
10.3. CC LOI THANG NH GI THI
C ba loi thang nh gi thi chnh:
1. Thang nh gi tng hay cn c gi l thang nh gi Likert;
2. Thang nh gi cc khong tng ng hay cn c gi l thang
nh gi Thurstone
3. Thang nh gi tch ly hay cn c gi l thang nh gi
Guttman.
10.3.1. Thang nh gi tng (hay thang nh gi Likert)
Thang nh gi tng, c bit nhiu hn di tn thang nh gi
Likert, d lm nht. Thang nh gi ny da trn gi nh mi nhn nh /
khon trong thang nh gi c mt gi tr thi , quan trng hoc
trng lng tng ng phn nh thi v vn ang hi. Gi nh
ny cng l gii hn chnh ca thang ng gi ny v cc nhn nh trn mt
thang nh gi him khi c gi tr tng ng. V d, trong v d ca hnh
10.1 v 10.2, hiu bit vn th khng quan trng v mt mc m n
th hin thi ca sinh vin vi mt cn b chuyn trch mi trng
187
lm c nhiu th hay mt s nhn vin thch, mt s khng, nhng

trong thang ng gi Likert, mi mc c coi nh c cng trng lng.
Mt nhn vin c th khng bn khon vic liu mt cn b qun l mi
trng lm c nhiu th khng, m quan tm hn n hiu bit vn ,
giao tip tt v bit cch lm vic
Rt
ng
Ging vin:
ng
Sao
cng
c
Khng
ng
1 Hiu r vn
2. Khng hng hi cng tc
3. Quan tam n mi ngi
4. i hi v l
5. Giao tip km
6. Bit cch lm vic
7. C th gii thch nhng tng
kh bng t ng n gin
8. Kh tip cn
9. c mt s nhn vin thch, mt
s khng
10. Kh ha ng
Hnh 10.1 V d v thang ng gi theo loi
188
Rt
khng
ng

Cn b qun l mi trng
1. Bit r vn
2. Hng hi cng vic
3. Khng quan tm nhn vin
4. i hi qu nhiu
5. Giao tip tt
6. Bit cch qun l
7. C th gii thch nhng tng

kh bng t ng n gin
8. Nhn vin kh gp
9. c mt s nhn vin thch,

mt s khng
10. c nhiu thnh tch
Hnh 10.2. V d thang nh gi bng s c 7 im.
Vic ghi nh rng thang nh gi Likert khng c lng bn cht thi

l rt quan trng. N gip t nhng phn hi khc nhau trong mi lin h
ln nhau theo cng ca thi ca h i vi mt vn : N ch ra cng
ca mt quan im phn hi trong mi lin h vi mt ci khc.
10.3.2. Cc cn nhc trong vic xy dng mt thang nh gi Likert
C nhiu vn cn cn nhc khi xy dng thang nh gi Likert.
u tin, hy quyt nh liu thi c ta c lng c xp vo loi
mt, hai hay ba hng ( l, liu bn mun xp vo cc v tr tch cc, tiu
cc, trung tnh trong dn s nghin cu) c ch n thi ca h vi vn
ang nghin cu. K , liu bn mun dng cch phn chia theo s th
189
t hay theo loi. N ty thuc vo vic bn on xem dn s ang nghin

cu t mnh trnh by tt hn theo cch phn chia theo s th t hay theo
loi. Quyt nh s im hay s lng cc loi trong mt phn chia theo loi
ty vo vic bn mun c lng cng ca thi ang hi v kh
nng phn bit ca i tng qun chng c hi tinh t n mc no.
Hnh 10.1 cho thy mt cch phn chia theo ch loi c 5 im v 3 hng
v Hnh 10.2 minh ha cch phn chia theo s th t c 7 im v mt
hng. i khi, nghin cu vin pht trin nhng nhn nh phn nh quan
im v mt vn theo nhng mc khc nhau (Hnh 10.3). Trong v d
ny, mt ngi tr li c yu cu chn la nhn nh no m t tt nht.
1: Ging vin
a. Bit vn rt r
b. Bit vn r
c. C kin thc tng i v vn ny
d. Khng bit vn
e. C kin thc rt km v vn
Hnh 10.3. V d v thang nh gi bng nhng nhn nh phn nh
cc thi khc nhau i vi vn
10.3.3. Quy trnh thc hin mt thang nh gi Likert

a. Tnh ton cc t l im thi
Gi s bn ang pht trin mt bn cu hi / bn danh sch phng vn
c lng thi ca mt lp hc v ging vin ca h. Nh vy, gi s
bn quyt nh dng thang nh gi thi theo loi vi nm loi (cng c
th dng mt s ln hn hay mt s nh hn).
190

Cn b qun l mi trng:
SA
SD
Hiu r vn (+)
Khng nhit tnh cng tc (-)
Quan tm nhn vin (+)
C yu cu v l (-)
Giao tip km (-)
Bit cch truyn t tng cng vic (+)
C th gii thch vn kh bng t n gin (+)
Kh tip cn (-)
c mt s nhn vin thch, mt s khng (+/-)
10
Kh ha ng (-)
SA: Rt ng , A; ng , U: Khng chc, D: Khng ng , SD: Rt

khng ng
Hnh 10.4: Cho im cc cu tch cc v tiu cc.
Trong v d trn, cu s 1 l mt nhn nh tch cc, do vy, nu mt

ngi tr li nh vo rt ng , ta gi thit rng ngi ta c mt thi
tch cc v vn ny hn ngi nh du vo ng , vv.. Do vy,
ngi nh du vo rt ng c thi tch cc nht cho vi tt c
nhng ngi c cu tr li khc. Do , ngi ny c s im cao nht, 5,
v ch c 5 loi tr li. Nu c bn loi tr li, bn c th n nh im 4.
Tht s rng, ta c th n nh bt k s im no min l cng ca m
hnh tr li c phn nh trong im v im cao nht c n nh cho
tr li c cng cao nht.
b. Lp quy trnh
Bc 1
To lp hoc cu trc cc nhn nh phn nh thi v vn

chnh ang hi. Cc nhn nh phi c din t phn nh
191
thi tch cc v tiu cc vi vn , l, chng ng h, cng

nh chng li vn . (Nu thang nh gi mt chiu, bn ch cn
cc nhn nh tch cc). Chc chn rng cc nhn nh phi c
lin k hp l vi vn chnh. Bn cng cn quyt nh liu bn
mun ngi ta tr li theo thang ng gi theo s thc t hay theo
loi
Bc 2
Dng cc nhn nh ny vi mt t ngi
Bc 3
Phn tch cc phn hi bng cch n nh trng s mt gi tr s

cho cc phn hi. Cc gi tr s ny c n nh khc nhau ty
theo cc nhn nh tch cc v tiu cc. Vi mt nhn nh tch
cc, phn hi c thi thun li nht c im cao nht. V d:
Trong mt thang nh gi c 5 im hay 5 loi, 5 c n nh
cho thi thun li nht v 1 cho phn hi c thi t thun li
nht. Ngc li, mt ngi rt ng vi mt nhn nh tiu cc
s c cho im ngc li, v d 1 c n nh cho phn hi
m ngi tr li rt ng vi mt nhn nh tiu cc v 5 cho
tr li m c/anh ta rt phn i.
Bc 4
Tnh ton im thi ca tng phn hi bng cch thm vo

nhng gi tr s hc c n nh bc 3 cho cc phn hi do
c/anh ta a ra cho tng nhn nh
Bc 5
So snh cc im ca tt c cc phn hi cho mi mc nhn ra

nhng mc khng th tch bch. Nhng nhn nh khng th tch
bch khng gip bn phn bit nhng phn hi theo thi v
phn ln tr li chng ging nhau (xem sch vit chuyn v c
lng thi ).
Bc 6
Loi b nhng mc khng th tch bch.
Bc 7
Cu trc mt bn phng vn, bn danh sch tr li bng tp hp

cc nhn nh / mc c chn lc.
Hnh 10.5. Quy trnh xy dng thang nh gi Likert
192
Nhn nh s 2 l mt nhn nh tiu cc. Trong trng hp mt

ngi nh du vo rt khng ng c thi tch cc nht vi mc
ny, do , c n nh im cao nht, 5. Mt khc, mt ngi tr li nh
du vo rt ng c thi t tch cc nht vi mc ny v do c
n nh im thp nht, 1. Ta cng theo h thng cho im nh th nhng
nhn nh khc.
Lu cu 9, lun c nhng ngi thch mt ging vin no v mt
s th khng, do vy, loi nhn nh ny trung tnh. Khng c l do g
gp chung n v mi ngi thng tr li ging nhau.
minh ha cch tnh ton im thi c nhn, chng ta ly v d
hai phn hi nh du cc nhn nh khc nhau m ta i din trong v d
ny bng # v @ (xem hnh 10.6).
Cn b qun l mi trng:
SA
Hiu r vn (+)
Khng nhit tnh cng vic (-)
Quan tm nhn vin vin (+)
C yu cu v l (-)
Giao tip km (-)
Bit cch truyn t tng (+)
C th gii thch vn kh bng t n gin

(+)
Kh tip cn (-)
c mt s nhn vin thch, mt s khng (+/)
10
Kh ha ng (-)
#
#
@
@
SD
#
@#
@#
#
SA: Rt ng , A: ng , U: Khng chc, D: Khng ng , SD: Rt

khng ng
Hnh 10.6. Tnh ton im thi
193
Tnh ton trn im thi

1
10
Phn hi @ =
5+
5+
4+
5+
4+
5+
5+
2+ 2+
5 + = 42
Phn hi # =
1+
2+
2+
1+
1+
3+
4+
2+ 2+
1 + = 19
Phn tch cho rng, ni chung, phn hi @ c thi tch cc hn

vi ging vin l phn hi #. Bn khng th ni rng thi ca phn hi @
tch cc gp i (42/19 = 2.21) so vi phn hi #. im thi ch t
nhng phn hi vo v tr tng i vi mt ci khc. Nh rng thang nh
gi Likert khng c lng thc cht thi m gip bn phn loi mt
nhm cc c nhn t trn xung hay t di ln v thi ca h i vi
vn ang hi.
10.3.4. Thang nh gi c khong tng ng (hay Thurstone)
vt qua kh khn ca thang nh gi Likert, thang nh gi
Thurstone tnh ton mt trng s hay mt gi tr thi cho tng nhn
nh. Trng s (tng ng vi gi tr median) cho mi nhn nh c
tnh ton da trn c s nh gi c n nh bi mt hi ng. Tng nhn
nh c cu tr li ng (cho tr li khng nh) c cho mt im thi
tng ng vi gi tr thi ca nhn nh ny. Qu trnh cu trc
thang nh gi Thurstone nh sau:
Bc 1
To lp hoc cu trc cc nhn nh phn nh thi v vn

ang hi.
Bc 2
Chn hi ng am hiu lnh vc m ta cn kho st thi .
Bc 3
Gi nhng nhn nh cho hi ng ny, yu cu nh gi quan

trng ca nhn nh phn nh thi vi vn ang c
nghin cu. Yu cu h phn loi tng nhn nh cho mt thang
nh gi 11 im.
Bc 4
Da trn nh gi ca hi ng, tnh ton gi tr median ca nh

gi cho tng mc.
194
Bc 5
Nu nh gi ca hi ng ri u trn thang nh gi, iu ny

cho thy ngay c gia cc chuyn gia cng khng c s nht tr v
mc m nhn nh phn nh thi vi vn ang nghi vn.
Loi b nhng nhn nh nh vy.
Bc 6
T nhng nhn nh cn li, chn nhng mc phn nh tt nht

thi vi cc kha cnh khc nhau ca vn .
Bc 7
Xy dng mt bn cu hi / bn danh sch phng vn bao gm

nhng mc c chn la.
Hnh 10.7. Quy trnh xy dng mt thang nh gi Thurstone
u im chnh ca thang nh gi ny l, quan trng ca tng

nhn nh c hi ng quyt nh, n phn nh tuyt i hn l thi
tng i ca ngi tr li. Do vy, thang nh gi ny c kh nng ch r
cng ca thi v bt k s s thay i no trong cng m nghin
cu ny ti to li. Mt khc, kh xy dng thang nh gi ny v ch trch
ch yu l hi ng v ngi tr li c th c nh tm quan trng ca mt
nhn nh c th no khc nhau, v do vy s khng phn nh c thi
ngi tr li.
10.3.5. Thang nh gi tch ly (hay thang nh gi Guttman)
Thang nh gi Guttman l mt trong nhng thang nh gi kh xy
dng nht v do vy t dng nht. Thang nh gi ny khng my lin quan
n nhng ngi mi nghin cu vy nn, khng c tho lun trong
quyn sch ny. bit thm thng tin v thang nh gi ny, xin tham
kho nhng sch chuyn v cc thang nh gi.
10.3.6. Mi lin h gia thang nh gi thi v thang nh gi
c lng
Cc thang nh gi thi khc nhau s dng nhng thang nh gi
c lng khc nhau. Vic bit c thang nh gi thi no thuc v
thang nh gi c lng no th rt quan trng v n gip cho bn din
195
dch c s im ca ngi tr li. Bng 10.1 cho thy quan h ca cc

thang nh gi thi vi cc thang nh gi c lng
Bng 10.1. Mi lin h thang nh gi thi v thang nh gi c lng
Thang nh gi thi
Thang nh gi c lng
Thang anh gia Likert
Thang anh gia theo s th t
Thang nh gi Thurstone
Thang nh gi khong cch
Thang anh gia Guttman
Thang anh gia t l
TIU KT
Thang nh gi thi c lng cc thi v mt vn no
. u im ca n l tm kh nng c th kt hp cc thi i vi
nhng kha cnh khc nhau ca vn v cung cp mt ch s phn nh
c thi tng qut. C nhng kh khn khi pht trin mt thang nh
gi thi . Cc kha cnh no nn c cp khi c lng cc thi v
mt vn no ? Lm sao nhng phn hi t mt ngi tr li ta c th
kt hp xc nh mt thi tng qut? Lm sao ta c th chn chn pht
trin mt thang nh gi thc s c lng c thi i vi vn
ang nghi vn.
C ba loi thang nh gi c lng thi : thang nh gi Likert,
Thurstone v Guttman. Thang nh gi Likert ph bin nht v n d xy
dng. Gi nh ch yu ca thang nh gi l mi nhn nh u quan
trng nh nhau. S quan trng ca tng mc trong thang nh gi
Thurstone c mt hi ng xc nh. Sp xp cc nhn nh theo mt
thc t tch ly hon ho l kh khn ch yu ca vic pht trin thang nh
gi Guttman.
196
CHNG 11
THIT LP TIN CY V GI TR
CA MT CNG C
NGHIN CU QUN TR MI TRNG
11.1. GII THIU
Sau khi phng vn, cc cu tr li l nn tng cho nhng tm kim v
kt lun ca bn. Nhng cu hi ny to thnh u vo cho nhng kt
lun ca bn (u ra). u vo ny tri qua mt chui cc bc - chn
mu, thu thp thng tin, x l s liu, p dng cc quy trnh thng k v vit
bo co v cch thc hin tt c nhng vic ny c th nh hng n tnh
chnh xc v cht lng cc kt lun ca bn. V vy khi nghin cu vin
nh xc minh (v v ngi c c cu hi) cht lng ca kt qu, l,
tm cch xc minh gi tr. V s thiu chnh xc c th xy ra trong bt k
giai on no ca mt nghin cu, khi nim gi tr c th p dng cho ton
b hay bt k bc no ca qu trnh nghin cu. Chng ta c th ni v gi
tr ca mt cng nghin cu, chin lc ly mu c dng, kt lun
rt ra, cc quy trnh thng k hay quy trnh c lng c dng. Ni rng
ra, c hai vin cnh cho gi tr.
1. iu tra nghin cu ny ang c cung cp cu tr li cho cc cu
hi nghin cu c c thc hin khng?
2. Nu c, liu n c ang cung cp cho cc cu tr li ny bng cch
dng nhng phng php v quy trnh thch hp khng?
Trong chng ny, chng ta quan tm n khi nim ca gi tr khi
c dng trong cc quy trnh c lng.
11.2. KHI NIM GI TR
xem xt khi nim gi tr, chng ta hy xem mt v d rt n
gin. Gi s bn xy dng mt nghin cu xc nh nhu cu v sinh mi
trng ca mt cng ng.
197
Mun vy, bn phi pht trin mt bng phng vn. Phn ln cc cu

hi trong bng phng vn c lin quan n thi ca cng ng nghin
cu vi cc dch v v sinh mi trng m h c cung cp. Lu rng
mc tiu ca bn l tm hiu nhu cu mi trng xanh sch nhng bng
phng vn th tm hiu v thi ca ngi tr li v cc dch v mi
trng, do , cng c ny khng c lng ci m n c thit k ra
c lng. Tc gi tnh c bt gp vi v d tng t trong sinh vin v
nhng nghin cu vin c k nng km.
V th, v mt quy trnh c lng, gi tr l kh nng ca mt cng
c c lng ci m cng c c thit k ra o. Gi tr c
nh ngha l mc nghin cu vin o lng ci anh ta nh o
(Smith, 1991; 106). Theo Kerlinger: nh ngha thng thng nht ca gi
tr c c ng li bng mt cu hi: C phi chng ta ang o lng ci
m chng ta nh o khng? (1973; 457). Babbie vit gi tr phn nh
mc m mt s o lng bng kinh nghim c th phn nh tha ng
ngha ch thc ca tng ang c quan tm (1990:133). Nhng nh
ngha ny lm ny sinh mt vi cu hi:
Ai quyt nh cng c ang o lng ang s dng?
Lm sao xc nh c cng c ang dng l ph hp?
Hin nhin rng, tr li cho cho hi u chnh l ngi thit k ra
cuc nghin cu v cc chuyn gia trong lnh vc . Cu hi th hai cc
k quan trng. Da vo u m nghin cu vin hoc chuyn gia c th
phn xt? Trong khoa hc qun l mi trng ni ring v khoa hc x hi
ni chung, c v nh c hai cch tip cn vic xc nh gi tr ca mt cng
c nghin cu: logic v bng chng thng k. Vic xc nh gi tr thng
qua logic ng rng, vic chng minh tnh ng n ca tng cu hi c
lin quan n mc tiu ca nghin cu trong khi cc qu trnh thng k cung
cp cc bng chng khng th bc b c bng cch tnh ton h s tng
quan gia cu hi v cc bin s kt qu. Vic xc nh mi lin h hp l
gia cc cu hi v mc ch va d va kh. N d cm nhn v rng t
198
bn d nhn thy mt mi lin h no , v kh v phn xt ca bn c th

thiu s ng h ca cc chuyn gia v bng chng thng k thuyt phc
ngi khc. Xc nh mi lin h hp l gia cc cu hi v mc tiu th d
hn khi cu hi lin quan n nhng vn r rng. V d, tng i d xc
nh gi tr ca cc cu hi nu bn mun tm hiu v tui, thu nhp, chiu
cao hay cn nng, nhng vic xc nh liu mt lot cc cu hi hiu qu
ca mt chng trnh, thi ca mt nhm ngi i vi mt vn no
, hay mc hi lng ca mt nhm ngi tiu dng i vi dch v do
mt t chc no cung cp th kh hn nhiu. Khi c nhng khi nim t
c th hn, nh hu hiu, thi , s tha mn, bn cn hi vi cu hi
bao trm cc kha cnh khc nhau vn ca khi nim v chng minh
rng cc cu c hi tht s o lng n. Trong trng hp ny, gi tr
kh xc nh hn
Xin nh rng, khi nim gi tr chun xc ch thch hp vi mt cng
c c th no v n l mt trng thi l tng m nhng nh nghin cu
nhm t ti.
11.3. CC LOI GI TR
C ba loi gi tr:
1. Gi tr b mt v ni dung;
2. Gi tr d bo v ng quy;
3. Gi tr cu trc.
11.3.1. Gi tr b mt v gi tr ni dung
Nhn xt rng mt cng c ang o lng ci m n nh lm, u
tin, phi da trn mi lin h logic gia cc cu hi v cc mc tiu ca
nghin cu. V th, mt trong nhng u im chnh ca loi gi tr ny l n
d dng. Tng cu hi hay mc trong thang nh gi phi c mi lin h
hp l vi mt mc tiu no . Vic xc nh mi lin h ny c gi l
gi tr b mt. Vic cc cu hi hay mc ton b vn hay thi ang
199
c lng cng quan trng tng ng. Vic nh gi cc mc ca cng

c theo kha cnh ny c gi l gi tr ni dung. Thm na, s bao trm
ca vn hay thi ny phi cn bng, l, tng kha cnh nn c c
trnh by y v ging nhau trong cc cu hi hay cc mc. Gi tr ni
dung c xt on trn c s phm vi m nhng nhn nh hay cu hi i
din vn c c lng, khi c xt on bi nhng nh nghin cu
v cc chuyn gia trong lnh vc ny. D d a ra l l hp l xc nh
gi tr, vn c vi kh khn c th:
1. S suy on da trn logic khch quan, do , ta khng th rt ra cc
kt lun r rng. Nhng ngi khc nhau c nhng quan im khc nhau v
gi tr ni dung v b mt ca mt cng c.
2. Phm vi m cc cu hi phn nh mc tiu ca mt nghin cu c
th khc nhau. Nu nh nghin cu thay th mt cu hi ny bng mt cu
hi khc, vng chc ca mi lin h c th b thay i. Do vy, gi tr
hay hon cnh ca n c th thay i theo cc cu hi c la chn cho
mt cng c no .
11.3.2. Gi tr d bo v gi tr ng quy
Trong trng hp khi mt thang nh gi c pht trin nh mt
ch s ca mt s tiu chun quan st, gi tr ca thang nh gi c th c
iu tra bng cch xem xt mt ch s hot ng tt nh th no (Moser v
Kalton, 1971). Gi s bn ang pht trin mt cng c xc nh s thch
hp ca cc ng c vin cho mt v tr ngh nghip. Gi tr ca cng c c
th c xc nh bng cch so snh n vi mt hnh thc nh gi khc, v
d, bng mt nh tm l hc, hoc vi mt quan st trong tng lai cc ng
c vin ny lm cng vic tt nh th no. Nu c hai nh gi tng t
nhau, cng c c dng nh gi c th c cho rng c gi tr cao
hn. Nhng cch nh gi ny xc nh hai loi gi tr: d bo v gi tr
ng quy.
Gi tr d bo c quyt nh bi mc mt cng c d bo kt
qu no .
200
Gi tr ng quy c nh gi bi vic cng c so snh vi mt

hnh thc nh gi khc ng thi lm tt nh th no.
C th din t c gi tr d bo di dng h s tng quan gia
tnh hung c d bo v cc tiu chun. Mt h s nh vy c gi l
h s gi tr (Burns, 1994).
11.3.3. Gi tr cu trc
Gi tr cu trc l mt k thut tinh t hn xc nh gi tr ca mt
cng c. N da trn cc quy trnh thng k. N c nh r bng cch xc
nh chc chn ng gp ca tng cu trc n bin tng quan st c ca
mt hin tng.
Gi s rng bn quan tm n vic thc hin mt nghin cu tm ra
mc tha mn cng vic gia nhn vin v cc t chc. Bn xem xt tnh
trng, bn cht cng vic, tin cng nh l ba yu t quan trng nht ch th
s tha mn trong cng vic. T , bn thit lp cc cu hi nhm xc nh
chc chn, cn nhc n tm quan trng ca tng yu t n s tha mn
trong cng vic . Sau khi th trc hoc phn tch s liu, bn dng cc
quy trnh thng k xc nh ng gp ca tng cu trc (hin trng cht
thi, sc chu ti nhim, bn cht thnh phn mi trng, kh nng t lm
sch...) n bin tng (mc tha mn chn phng php x l hay qun
l cht thi). ng gp ca tng yu t n bin tng l mt ch s v mc
gi tr ca cng c. Bin ny cng nhn c nhiu s ng gp ca cc
cu trc, th gi tr ny ca cng c cng cao.
Mt trong nhng bt li chnh ca gi tr cu trc l ngi nghin
cu phi bit cc quy trnh thng k ton hc ph hp v cn thit (xem
phn sau).
11.4. KHI NIM V TIN CY CA CNG C NGHIN CU
Chng ta s dng tin cy rt thng xuyn trong cuc sng. Khi
chng ta ni ngi ny ng tin, chng ta hm g? Chng ta hm l
201
ngi c th trng cy c, nht qun, c th on trc c, khng

d thay i v trung thc.
Khi nim tin cy c lin quan n cng c nghin cu c ngha
tng t: nu mt cng c nghin cu nht qun v n nh, v do vy, c
th d on c v chnh xc, ta ni n ng tin. Mc thch hp v n
nh ca cng c cng ln, n cng c tin cy cao. Do , mt thang
nh gi hay mt php th ng tin n phm vi m vic lp li o lng
cng mt iu kin khng i, s cho cng mt kt qu (Moser v
Kalton, 1989: 353).
Khi nim tin cy ca mt cng c nghin cu c th c nhn t
hai kha cnh: tin cy c n u v khng th tin cy c n
u?
Kha cnh u nhm ti kh nng ca mt cng c thu c
nhng o lng nht qun. Khi bn thu thp cng mt b thng tin hn mt
ln, s dng cng cng c, ra cng kt qu, di cng iu kin nh nhau,
cng c ny c coi l ng tin cy. Kha cnh th hai nhm ti mc
khng nht qun trong vic o lng do mt cng c thc hin, l, mc
sai bit trong vic o lng khi bn thu thp cng mt tp s liu hn
mt ln, dng cng cng c trong cng nhng iu kin tng t. V th,
mc khng nht qun trong cc o lng khc nhau l mt ch s mc
khng chnh xc. Sai lm ny phn nh s khng ng tin cy ca mt
cng c. Do vy, kh nng tin cy l s ng n hay chnh xc trong
vic o lng do mt cng c nghin cu thc hin. Mc sai lm trong
vic o lng cng thp, kh nng tin cy cng cao.
Chng ta hy ly mt v d, gi s bn pht trin mt bn cu hi
xc nh chc chn nn x rc trong mt cng ng no . Bn dng bn cu
hi ny v nhn thy nn x rc ph bin mc , v d, l nm phn trm
tng s gia nh. Nu bn lm nh vy vi mt cuc iu tra khc dng cng
mt bn cu hi, trn cng mt dn s di cng mt iu kin, v khm ph
ra mc x rc trong cng ng y, v d, mi lm phn trm, bn cu hi
202
khng th a ra mt kt qu c th so snh c, iu c ngha l n

khng ng tin. S khc bit gia hai tp kt qu cng t, kh nng tin cy ca
cng c cng cao. Mt s v d khc, bn phn tch hm lng kim loi nng
trong mi trng nc bng phng php kch hot ntron, sau 3 ln phn
tch cng mt mu nc nhng sai s ln hn 7%, ta ni phng php ny
khng ng tin cy.
11.5. CC YU T NH HNG N KH NNG TIN CY CA
MT CNG C NGHIN CU
Trong cc mn qun l mi trng cng nh sinh thi nhn vn kh
c th c mt cng c nghin cu c tin cy 100 phn trm, khng ch do
trn thc t khng c mt cng c o c chnh xc tuyt i nh vy, m
cn do nghin cu ca bn kh c kh nng khng ch cc yu t mi
trng ngoi cnh nh hng n kh nng tin cy. Mt vi trong cc yu t
l
T ng ca cu hi ch mt s m h nh trong t ng ca cc
cu hi hoc nhn nh c th nh hng n kh nng tin cy ca mt cng
c nghin cu v ngi tr li c th din dch cc cu hi khc nhau
nhng thi im khc nhau, dn n cc phn hi khc nhau.
Cch b tr trong trng hp mt cng c c dng trong mt
cuc phng vn, bt k thay i no trong cch b tr vo thi im lp li
phng vn u c th nh hng n phn hi ca ngi tr li, m n s
tc ng n kh nng tin cy.
Tm trng ngi tr li mt s thay i trong tm trng ngi tr
li khi tr li cc cu hi c th nh hng n kh nng tin cy ca cng
c .
Bn cht ca giao tip trong mt tnh hung phng vn, giao tip
gia ngi c phng vn v phng vn vin c th nh hng rt ln n
phn hi. Trong sut qu trnh lp li phng vn, cc cu tr li a ra c
203
th khc nhau do s thay i trong giao tip, m n c th nh hng n

kh nng tin cy.
nh hng hi quy ca mt cng c khi mt cng c nghin cu
c dng o lng cc thi i vi mt vn , mt s ngi tr li,
sau khi bc l quan im ca mnh, c th cm thy mnh qu tiu cc hoc
qu tch cc i vi vn . Ln th hai, h c th biu t quan im
ca mnh khc i, lm nh hng n kh nng tin cy.
11.6. CC PHNG PHP XC NH KH NNG TIN CY CA
MT CNG C
C mt s cch xc nh kh nng tin cy ca mt cng c. Cc quy
trnh khc nhau ny c th c phn lm hai nhm:
1. Cc quy trnh nht qun bn ngoi
2. Cc quy trnh nht qun bn trong
11.6.1 Cc quy trnh nht qun bn ngoi
Cc quy trnh nht qun bn ngoi so snh cc kt qu th tch ly vi
nhau nh mt cch thc xc nh kh nng tin cy ca mt o lng. Hai
phng php nh sau:
Th/th li y l mt phng php thng c dng xc
nh kh nng tin cy ca mt cng c nghin cu. Trong php th / th li
(php th c th lp li), mt cng c c dng mt ln, v ln na, cc
iu kin ging nhau hoc tng t. T s gia cc im s ca th v th
li (hoc tt c s pht hin khc, v d, s ph bin ca nn x rc ni cng
cng, mt bnh mi trng hoc mt t l bnh do ng c mi trng) l
ch s ca kh nng tin cy ca cng c . Gi tr ca t s cng ln, kh
nng tin cy ca cng c cng cao.
Phng trnh:
204
(im th)/(Th li) = 1

hoc
(im th)/(Th li) = 0
T s l 1 ch ra 100% kh nng tin cy (khng khc bit gia th v
th li) v bt k mt lch no khc cho bit kh nng tin cy ca cng
c km hn. Gi tr ca t s ny cng thp, kh nng tin cy ca cng c
cng km. Ni cch khc, khc bit gia cc im s th v th li bng 0 l
mt ch s ca 100% khng th tin cy. Khc bit gia cc im th / tm ra
cng ln, kh nng khng th tin cy ca cng c cng ln. u im chnh
ca quy trnh th/th li l n cho php cng c t so snh vi chnh mnh,
do vy, trnh cc kh khn ny sinh, khi ta dng cc cng c khc.
Nhc im chnh l mt ngi tr li c th nh li nhng tr li m
ngi phng vn a ra ln u, m n c th nh hng n kh nng
tin cy ca cng c. Khi mt cng c tc ng tr li bn cht (khi cng c
ch cho ngi tr li v ci ngi nghin cu ang tm kim), phng php
ny s khng cung cp mt s nh gi chnh xc v kh nng tin cy ca
n. Mt cch vt qua tr ngi ny l tng qung thi gian gia hai ln th,
nhng iu ny c th nh hng n kh nng tin cy v nhng l do khc,
nh s chn chn ca ngi tr li, vic kh c th c nhng iu kin
tng t nh nhng iu khin khi ta thc hin cuc phng vn u.
Cc dng song song ca cng php th trong quy trnh ny, ngi
nghin cu xy dng hai cng c o lng cng mt hin tng. Hai
cng c ny c p dng cho hai nhm qun th nghin cu tng t. Cc
kt qu thu c t mt php th c th em so snh vi nhng g thu c
t ci cn li. Nu chng tng t nhau, ta cho rng cc cng c ny ng
tin cy.
u im chnh ca quy trnh ny l chng ta khng chu ng nhng
vn do vic gi nh li thy trong trong quy trnh th/th li. Ngoi
ra, ta khng yu cu mt qung thi gian gia hai ln th. Nhc im l
205
ngi nghin cu cn xy dng hai cng c, thay v mt. Hn na, rt kh

xy dng hai cng c c th so snh c s o lng ca chng cng
mt hin tng. Cng kh tng t c kh nng so snh c hai nhm
dn c v hai iu kin thc hin php th. V d, cng phn tch hm
lng KLN trong t ta c th dng phng php quang ph hp thu
nguyn t ng thi vi phng php Kch hot ntron. Kt qu 2
phng php phn tch c th ging nhau nhng c th khc nhau. iu
rt kh so snh. Cho nn khi c s liu phn tch ngi ta lun lun ghi ch:
theo phng php no!
11.6.2. Cc quy trnh nht qun bn trong
tng pha sau ca cc quy trnh nht qun bn trong l cc mc o
lng cng mt hin tng s cho cc kt qu tng t. Phng php sau
thng c dng c lng kh nng tin cy ca mt cng c.
K thut ct i k thut ny c thit k lm tng quan
phn na ca cc mc vi phn na cn li v n thch hp cho cc cng c
o lng thi cho mt vn hay hin tng. Cc cu hi hoc nhn
nh c chia i theo cch bt k hai cu hi hoc nhn nh o
lng cng mt kha cnh thnh hai na khc nhau. Cc im c c bng
cch lm hai na ny tng quan vi nhau. Kh nng tin cy c tnh ton
bng cch dng tng quan moment sn phm gia s im thu c t
hai na ny. V tng quan moment sn phm c tnh ton ch da trn
mt na cng c, nh gi kh nng tin cy ca ton b, n cn phi
c chnh sa. N c bit nh kh nng tin cy c tng cng. Kh
nng tin cy c tng cng cho ton b cng c c tnh ton bng mt
cng thc c gi l cng thc Spearman-Brown. (S c gii thiu k
hn tp 2)
TIU KT
Khi nim gi tr cp n cht lng v c th c p dng cho
bt k kha cnh no ca qu trnh nghin cu. i vi cc qu trnh c
206
lng, n lin quan n vic liu cng c nghin cu c o lng ci m n

to ra o. C hai cch tip cn c dng xc nh gi tr ca mt
cng c: xc nh mi lin h logic gia cc mc tiu ca nghin cu v cc
cu hi c dng trong mt cng c, v vic dng cc phn tch thng k
chng minh mi lin h ny. C ba loi gi tr: b mt v ni dung, ng
quy v d on, v gi tr cu trc.
Kh nng tin cy ca mt cng c cp n kh nng to ra cc o
lng nht qun nhng iu kin ging hoc tng t nhau cho cng i
tng qun th nghin cu v thu c cc kt qu tng t, chng ta ni
rng cng c ny ng tin. Cc kt qu cng tng t nhau, kh nng tin
cy cng ln. Chng ta c th nhn kh nng tin cy t hai pha: kh nng
tin cy (mc chnh xc) v kh nng khng th tin cy (mc khng
chnh xc). Trong nghin cu u trc qun l mi trng, s m h trong
t ng ca cc cu hi, thay i hon cnh thu thp s liu, tm trng ngi
tr li khi cung cp thng tin, bn cht ca giao tip gia phng vn vin v
ngi c phng vn, v nh hng thoi b ca mt cng c, l nhng
yu t c th nh hng n kh nng tin cy ca mt cng c nghin cu.
C nhng quy trnh nht qun bn ngoi v bn trong xc nh kh
nng tin cy. Th/ th li v cc th song song ca cng mt php th l hai
quy trnh xc nh kh nng tin cy bn ngoi ca mt cng c, trong khi k
thut ct na c phn loi v cc quy trnh nht qun bn trong.
Cu hi:
1. Gi thit l g?
2. Cc chc nng ca mt gi thit l g?
3. c im ca mt gi thit l g?
4. C bao nhiu loi gi thit? ni r tng loi gi thit?
5. Sai st trong vic kim tra mt gi thit l g?
6. Mi quan h gia gi thit v khoa hc l g?
7. Cch t mt gi thit l g?
8. Tiu chun ch o trong mt gi thit nghin cu l g?
9. Phn on trong gi thit nghin cu khoa hc cn phi m bo yu
cu g?
207
10. Phn on trong gi thit nghin cu khoa hc chia lm my loi?

Ti liu tham kho:
1. V CAO M, 2003, Phng Php Lun Nghin Cu Khoa Hc,
Nh xut bn KH & KT. H Ni.
2. NGUYN NGC KING, 1996, Thng k hc trong nghin cu
khoa hc, NXB Gio Dc.
3. NGUYN VN L, 2001, Phng php lun nghin cu khoa hc,
NXB Gio Dc.
4. TRUNG NGUYN, 2005, Phng Php Lun Nghin Cu Khoa
Hc (Cm nang hng dn tng bc dnh cho ngi bt u). Nh
xut bn Lao ng - X hi. H Ni.
5. NGUYN THANH PHNG, 2000, Bi ging mn phng php
nghin cu khoa hc, i Hc Cn Th
6. PGS.TS. Nguyn Bo V, ThS. Nguyn Huy Ti, Gio trnh phng
php nghin cu khoa hc i hc Cn Th
7. DNG THIU TNG, 2002, Phng Php Nghin Cu Khoa
Hc Gio Dc v Tm L, Nh xut bn i Hc Quc Gia TP H
Ch Minh. H Ch Minh.
208
CHNG 12
LY MU
12.1. KHI NIM LY MU
Chng ta ly mt v d n gin gii thch khi nim ly mu. Gi
s bn mun c lng chiu cao trung bnh ca mt lung ng. C hai
cch lm iu . Phng php th nht l bn o tt c cc cy ng trong
lung cng li, ri chia cho s lng cy ng trong lung (nh
ngha trung bnh). Phng php th hai l chn mt s cy i din, o,
cng li, ri chia cho s cy o, c th cho php bn d on chiu cao
trung bnh ca cy ng trn c lung. V d khc: gi s bn mun bit thu
nhp trung bnh ca cc gia nh trong mt thnh ph. Bn c th theo cc
quy trnh nu trn, nhng hy tng tng cng sc v ngun lc cn tit
i n tng gia nh trong thnh ph tm hiu thu nhp ca h! Bn c
th theo cch th hai, bng cch chn vi gia nh lm nn cho yu cu
ca mnh v sau lp mt d on cho thu nhp trung bnh ca cc gia
nh trong thnh ph. Mt v d na l kt qu mt cuc bu c: kt qu s
c quyt nh sau khi b phiu vo ngy bu c, nhng ngi ta thng
d on kt qu da trn nhng cuc thm d kin. Nhng thm d da
trn mt nhm ngi rt nh c hi v u tin b phiu ca h. Da
trn nhng kt qu ny, ngi ta a ra d on v kt qu.
Do vy, ly mu l mt qu trnh chn la mt (hoc mt vi) mu t
mt tp hp ln hn (Dn s ly mu) to ra nhng d on hay d bo
v mt s tht, tnh trng hay kt qu ca tp hp ln hn . Mt mu l
mt tp hp con ca qun th nghin cu m bn quan tm.
208
Mau
Dan so lay mau
Tm ra thong ke
mau
Hnh 12.1. Khi nim ly mu
Qu trnh chn mu i din t ton b qun th c nhng u v

nhc im. u im l n tit kim thi gian cng nh cc ngun lc ti
chnh v nhn s. Tuy th, nhc im l bn khng tm c s liu thc
t v cc t im ca m bn quan tm, m ch c th d on hoc d bo
chng. Do , c th tn ti sai lm trong d on ca bn.
Do vy, ly mu l mt s nh i gia c v mt. Trong khi v
mt mt no , bn tit kim c thi gian v ngun lc, bn c th lm
tn hi n mc chnh xc ca nhng ci bn tm c. Thng qua vic
ly mu, bn khng ch nh gi c tnh hung thc t ph bin trong
ton b qun th t mu c rt ra. Nu bn xc nh chc chn phn
thng tin t dn s mu tng cng v nu phng php iu tra ca bn l
ng, nhng ci bn tm c s kh ng. Tuy vy, nu bn chn mu v
dng n nh c s t nh gi tnh trng trong ton b qun th, c
kh nng c sai lm.
12.2. H THNG THUT NG TRONG VIC LY MU
Mt ln na, chng ta hy xem xt li cc v d c dng trn.
Mc tiu ca chng ta l tm ra chiu cao trung bnh ca cy ng trong
209
lung, thu nhp trung bnh ca cc gia nh sng trong thnh ph, kt qu
bu c c th xy ra ca mt tnh hay mt quc gia c th no . Gi s
rng, chng ta chn phng php th hai, l, chng ta chn la mt s
cy i din hay khu vc bu c, t c cc mc tiu trn.
Qun th nghin culung ng /thnh ph/khu vc bu c t
, bn c th chn ra mt s cy ng/gia nh/c tri lm mu i din
cho c qun th nghin cu .
Mu nhm nh cy ng, gia nh, hoc c tri t bn thu
lm thng tin to nn d on v tui trung bnh, thu nhp trung bnh hay
kt qu bu c.
Kch thc mu S lng cy ng, gia nh, c tri bn thu
thp thng tin t .
Kiu ly hay chin lc ly mu - cch chng ta chn cy, gia
nh, hay c tri.
n v mu tng cy, gia nh hay c tri to nn tng cho vic
chn mu.
Khung ca mu mt danh snh nhn din tng cy, gia nh hay
c tri.
Thng k mu nhng ci bn tm c trn c s thng tin thu c
t nhng ngi tr li (mu) v d, chiu cao trung bnh cy ng (tnh ton t
thng tin thu c t nhng cy ng c o); thu nhp trung bnh ca cc gia
nh trong thnh ph (tnh ton t thng tin thu c t nhng gia nh tham
gia vo nghin cu ca bn) v kt qu bu c k vng (t nhng phn hi thu
c t nhng ngi c hi). Thng k mu l c s d bo mc ph
bin ca mt tnh cht no trong qun th nghin cu.
Cc thng s hay trung bnh qun th nhng c im qun th
bn mun iu tra, l chiu cao cy ng, thu nhp trung bnh ca cc gia
nh sng trong mt thnh ph, v kt qu k vng ca cuc bu c.
210
12.3. NGUYN TC LY MU
C ba nguyn tc c bn trong l thuyt ly mu. gii thch r
nhng nguyn tc ny, chng ta ly mt v d rt n gin. Gi s c 4 im
ly mu nhim nc sng Si gn: A, B, C v D. A 180mg BOD/l , B:
200, C: 230 v D: 250. Khi bn bit c nhim BOD ca tng im
ly mu, bn c th tm ra (tnh ton ra) nhim trung bnh ca dng
sng Si Gn bng cch cng 180+200+230+250 v chia cho 4. Ta c
nhim trung bnh ca A, B, C v D l 215 mg BOD/l.
By gi gi s chng ta mun chn ra mt mu gm hai im ly mu
a ra mt d on v nhim trung bnh ca bn im. Nu theo l
thuyt xc sut, chng ta c 6 t hp ca hai phn t: A v B; A v C; A v
D; B v C; B v D v C v D. Chng ta ly tng cp ny ra tnh trung
bnh mu:
A+B = 180+200 = 380/2 = 190mgBOD/l
A+C = 180+230 = 410/2 = 205 mgBOD/l
A+D = 180+250 = 430/2 = 215mgBOD/l
B+C = 200+230 = 430/2 = 215mgBOD/l
B+D = 200+250 = 450/2 = 225 mgBOD/l
C+D = 230+250 = 480/2 = 240 mgBOD/l
Lu rng, trong phn ln cc trng hp, nhim biu th qua
th s BOD trung bnh (thng k mu) c tnh ton da trn cc mu c
hai phn t th khc nhau. By gi so snh cc thng k mu ny vi trung
bnh ca bn ly mu trn sng Si gn (thng s qun th) l 215 mg/l.
Trong tng s su t hp, ch c hai trng hp l khng c khc bit gia
thng k mu v trung bnh qun th. Ni c sai bit, n c cho l do mu
v c gi l sai lm mu. Mt ln na, ln ca sai lm mu thay i
ng k. Chng ta hy lu tm n khc bit trong thng k mu v trung
bnh qun th cho tng ci ca su v d ny.
211
Bng 12.1. Sai bit gia cc thng k mu v trung bnh qun th nghin
cu
Trung bnh mu
Trung bnh qun th
(Thng k mu)
(Thng s qun th)
(1)
(2)
190
215
-25
205
215
-15
215
215
215
215
225
215
+10
240
215
+25
Mu
Khc bit gia

(1) v (2)
Phn tch ny gi mt nguyn tc rt quan trng trong vic ly mu.

Nguyn tc mt Trong phn ln cc trng hp khi ta thc hin
vic ly mu, c s khc bit gia thng k mu v trung bnh thc ca
qun th nghin cu m n c th l do vic chn la cc phn t ca mu.
hiu nguyn tc th hai, chng ta hy tip tc v d trn nhng
thay mu gm hai phn t bng mu cha ba phn t. Ta c th rt ra bn t
hp:
A+B+C = 180+200+230 = 610/3 = 206,7 mgBOD/l
A+B+D = 180+200+250 = 630/3 = 200,0 mgBOD/l
A+C+D = 180+230+250 = 660/3 = 220,0 mgBOD/l
B+C+D = 200+230+250 = 680/3 = 226,7 mgBOD/l
By gi, chng ta hy so snh s khc bit gia thng k mu v trung
bnh qun th nghin cu.
212
Bng 12.2. Sai bit gia cc thng k mu v trung bnh qun th

nghin cu
Trung bnh mu
Mu
(1)
Trung bnh qun th

nghin cu
Khc bit gia

(1) v (2)
(2)
206,7
215
-8,3
210,0
215
-5,0
220,0
215
+5,0
226,7
215
+11,7
So snh s khc bit gia sai bit c tnh ton trong bng ny v
bng trc. Trong bng u, sai bit gia thng k mu v trung bnh qun
th nghin cu nm trong khong t -25,0 n +25,0 mg/l, trong khi bng
hai, n gia 8,9 n +11,7 mg/l. Sai bit gia thng k mu v trung bnh
qun th nghin cu gim i bn th hai. S gim bt ny l do vic gia
tng kch c mu. Do vy, iu ny dn n nguyn tc th hai.
Nguyn tc hai Kch c mu cng ln, chnh xc cho d on
ca trung bnh dn s cng cao.
Nguyn tc th ba ca vic ly mu c bit quan trng v n l c
s cho mt s chin lc ly mu. hiu r nguyn tc ny, chng ta
hy cng tip tc v d trn nhng dng s liu hi khc i mt cht. Gi
s mc nhim ca bn v tr ny khc nhau nh k: A = 180
B = 260 C = 320 v D = 400. Ni cch khc, chng ta hnh dung mt dn
s, ni m mc nhim mt khc sng chng lm ta quan tm khc
nhau ng k.
Chng ta thc hin cng mt quy trnh, chn mu c hai v tr v sau
l mu c ba v tr. Nu chng ta thc hin cng quy trnh m t
trn, chng ta s nhn thy s khc bit v nhim trung bnh trong trng
213
hp mu c hai im ly, bin thin gia 70 v +70mg/l BOD, v trong

trng hp mu c ba phn t, bin thin gia 36,7 v +36,7. Trong c hai
trng hp, on sai bit u ln hn nhng tnh ton trc y. iu ny
l do s sai bit ln hn v nhim gia 4 v tr khc nhau. Hay ni cch
khc, dn s mu c s khng ng nht ln hn v nhim.
Nguyn tc ba vi mt kch c mu cho trc, s sai bit trong
mt bin s c nghin cu trong tp hp cng ln, th s khc bit gia
thng k mu v trung bnh tht s ca tp hp cng ln.
Vic nh nhng nguyn tc ny rt quan trng khi bn ang quyt
nh kch c mu cn thit cho mt mc chnh xc c th, v cho mt
chin lc ly mu thch hp nht cho nghin cu ca mnh.
12.4. CC YU T NH HNG N NHNG KT LUN RT
RA T MU
Nhng nguyn tc trn gi rng c hai yu t nh hng n tin
cy ca cc kt lun rt ra t mt mu no .
1. Kch c mu nhng ci tm c da trn nhng mu ln hn c
tin cy cao hn khi da trn cc mu nh. Mt quy tc l khi kch c
mu cng ln, chnh xc cng cao.
2. Quy m ca bin s mu s bin thin ca c tnh ang nghin
cu trong tp hp cng ln, tnh khng chc chn cng cao (theo t chuyn
mn, vi mt kch c mu cho trc, trong cc c lng ca bn, lch
chun cng ln, sai s chun cng cao) Nu mt tp hp ng nht v c
tnh c nghin cu, mt mu nh cng c th cho c lng kh tt,
nhng nu n khng ng nht (CV ln), c cng mt chnh xc nh
vy, bn cn chn mu c kch thc ln hn. ng nhin, nu mi phn
t trong tp hp ging nhau, th vic chn lc, ngay c ch mt phn t thi
cng s cho ra c lng hn ton chnh xc. Nguyn tc: vi kch c mu
cho trc, bin thin ca ca c im ang c nghin cu trong tp
hp cng cao, tnh khng chc chn cng ln.
214
12.5. CC MC TIU TRONG VIC CHN MU

Trong vic chn mu, hy lun c gng:
t chnh xc cao nht trong cc c lng ca bn vi mt
kch c mu cho trc.
Trnh nh kin trong vic chn mu.
nh kin trong vic chn mu c th c nu:
+ Ly mu bng mt phng php ngu nhin no , v d, nu s
chn la b nh hng c hay v thc ca chn la ca con ngi.
+ Khung ca mu danh sch, danh mc hoc cc ghi chp tp hp
qun th khc c dng nh nn tng ca vic chn la, khng bao hm
qun th mu mt cch chnh xc v y .
+ Mt b phn ca qun th mu khng th tm ra hoc t chi cng tc.
12.6. CC HNH THC LY MU
Cc chin lc ly mu c th c phn loi thnh 3 nhm khc
nhau:
Cc kiu ly mu xc sut ngu nhin;
Cc kiu ly mu xc sut khng ngu nhin; v
Cc kiu ly mu hn hp.
hiu r cc kiu ny, ta s tho lun tng ci ring bit.
12.7. CC KIU LY MU XC SUT NGU NHIN
Vi kiu ly mu c gi l mu xc sut hay ngu nhin, mi phn
t trong tp hp u c c hi tng ng v c lp nhau trong qu trnh
s chn la. iu ni rng xc sut la chn ca mi phn t trong tp
hp l ging nhau, c ngha l, vic chn la mt phn t trong mu khng
b nh hng bi cc cn nhc khc nh s a thch c nhn. Khi nim
215
c lp c ngha rng, vic chn la mt phn t ny khng ty thuc vo

vic chn la phn t khc trong vic ly mu: s la chn hay t chi ca
mt phn t khng b nh hng bi vic gp vo hay b loi tr ca mt
ci khc. gii thch khi nim ny, chng ta hy quay v v d v lp
hc.
Gi s c 80 sinh vin trong lp. Gi thit rng 20 trong s h t chi
tham gia nghin cu. Bn mun ton b tp hp 80 sinh vin trong nghin
cu ca bn nhng 20 t chi tham d, bn ch c th s dng mt mu 60.
20 sinh vin t chi tham gia c th c tnh cm mnh m vi cc vn
bn ang kho st, nhng nhng g bn tm c khng phn nh quan im
ca h. Vic loi h ra khi nghin cu ca bn c ngha rng tng ngi
trong 80 sinh vin khng c c c hi c la chn nh nhau. Do vy,
mu ca bn khng ai din cho ton b lp.
Cng c th p dng tng t cho mt cng ng. Trong mt cng
ng, ngoi vic t chi tham gia, chng ta gi s rng bn khng th nh
danh tt c c dn s trong cng ng. Nu mt phn ln c dn khng th
c bao gm trong tp hp mu bi v h khng th nhn dng c hoc
t chi tham gia, th bt k mu no c rt ra cng s khng cho tng
phn t trong dn s mu mt c hi tng ng nhau trong vic c la
chn trong mu . Do vy, mu nh ly s khng i din cho ton b
cng ng.
hiu r khi nim v c hi c lp trong vic chn la, chng ta
hy gi s rng ta ang iu tra ti mi trng nhn vn. Trong qu trnh
ly mu c nm sinh vin trong lp l bn rt thn. Nu mt trong s h
c la chn nhng t chi tham gia v bn ngi cn li khng c la
chn, v do , bn b p buc phi chn c nm hoc khng c ai c th
mu ca bn s khng c coi l mt mu c lp v vic la chn mt
ngi ny ty thuc vo s la chn nhng ngi khc. Vic tng t cng
c th xy ra trong mt cng ng khi mt nhm nh ni rng hoc tt c
bn h hoc khng mt ai trong h s tham gia vo nghin cu. Trong
216
trng hp ny, bn b buc phi bao gm hoc loi b mt phn ca dn s

mu, mu ny khng c xem l c lp v do vy, khng i din cho
dn s c ly mu.
Mt mu c th c xem l mt mu xc sut (ngu nhin) v do th,
i din cho dn s ang c nghin cu khi tha mn c hai iu kin
ny. Nu khng, c th c nh kin nh kin trong nghin cu.
C hai u im ca mu xc xut. ngu nhin:
V n i din cho ton b dn s mu, cc suy lun rt ra t nhng
mu nh vy c th c tng qut ha cho ton b tp hp c ly mu.
Vi php th thng k da trn l thuyt xc sut ch c th
c dng cho s liu c thu thp t cc mu ngu nhin.
12.8. CC PHNG PHP CHN MT MU NGU NHIN
Trong cc phng php m bn c th dng chn la mt mu
ngu nhin, c ba cch thng dng nht, l:
Rt thm nu tp hp gc ca bn nh, mt cch d l bng cch
dng cc mnh giy ri, nh s cho tng phn t, cho tt c mnh giy vo
trong mt hp, on nht chng ln tng ming mt m khng nhn. Cho
n khi s mnh giy tng ng vi kch c mu bn quy nh trc.
Phng php ny c dng trong x s.
Cc chng trnh my tnh
Bn cc s ngu nhin phn ln cc sch v phng php lun
nghin cu v xc sut bao gi cng c mt bng cc s c to ngu
nhin trong phn ph lc (v d, xem bng 12.3). Bn c th dng cc bn
theo quy trnh c m t trong bng ny. Quy trnh chn la mu bng
cch dng mt bng cc s ngu nhin nh sau:
Bc 1: Xc nh tng s cc phn t trong mu cn nghin cu, v
d, 50, 100, 430, 795, 1265. Tng s cc phn t trong tp hp nghin cu
217
c th ln n bn ch s hay hn (nu tp hp gc l 9 hoc t hn, n l

mt ch s; nu tp hp gc l 99 hoc t hn, n l hai ch s).
Bc 2: nh s mi phn t bt u t 1.
Bc 3: Nu bng cc s ngu nhin c hn mt trang giy, chn
trang bt u bng cch ngu nhin. Mt ln na, vi cch ngu nhin, ta
chn mt dng hay ct no lm im bt u v bt ngun t theo
hng nh sn.
Bc 4: Cn c theo s lng ch s ca tp hp gc, chn ngu
nhin cng s lng ct hoc dng ca cc ch s t bng ny.
Bc 5: Quyt nh kch c mu.
Bc 6: Chn s lng phn t yu cu cho mu ca bn t bn ny.
Nu bn tnh c chn mt s hai ln, hy b n i v di chuyn n ci k
bn. iu ny c th xy ra v bng cc s ngu nhin c to thnh bng
cch ly mu thay th.
Bng 12.3. Chn mu bng cch dng bng cc s ngu nhin
1
218
10
48461 14952 72619
73689
52059
37086 60050
86192
67049 64739
76534 38149 49692
31366
52093
15422 20498
33901
10319 43397
70437 25861 38504
14752
23757
29660 67844
78815
23758 86814
59584 03370 42806
11393
71722
93804 09095
07856
55589 50063
04285 58554 16085
51555
27501
73883 33427
33343
45507 50063
77340 10412 69189
85171
29802
44785 86368
02583
96483 76553
59183 62687 91778
80354
23512
97219 65921
02035
59487 91403
91800 04281 39979
03927
82564
28777 59049
97532
54540 79472
12066 24817 81099
48940
69554
55925 48379
12866
41232 21580
10 69907 91751 53512
23748
65906
91385 84983
27915
48491 91068

11 80467 04873 54053
25955
48518
13815 37707
68687
15570 08890
12 78057 67835 28302
45048
56761
97725 58438
91529
24645 18544
13 05648 39387 78191
88415
60269
94880 58812
42931
71898 61534
14 22304 39246 01350
99451
61862
78688 30339
60222
74152 25740
15 61346 50269 67005
40442
33100
16742 61640
21046
31909 72641
16 56790 37696 27965
30459
91011
51426 31006
77468
61029 57108
17 56411 48609 36698
42453
85061
43769 39948
87031
30767 13953
18 62098 12825 81744
28882
27369
88185 65846
92545
09065 22653
19 68775 06261 54265
16203
23340
84750 16317
88686
86842 00879
20 52679 19599 13687
74872
89181
01939 18447
10787
76246 80072
21 84096 87152 20719
25215
04349
54434 72344
93008
83282 31670
22 83964 55937 21417
49944
38356
98404 14850
17994
17161 98981
23 31191 75131 72386
11689
95727
05414 88727
45583
22568 77700
24 30545 68523 29850
67833
05622
89975 79042
27142
99257 32349
25 52573 91001 52315
26430
54175
30122 31796
98842
37600 26025
26 16586 81842 01076
99414
31574
94719 34656
80018
86988 79234
27 81841 88481 61191
25013
30272
23388 22463
65774
10029 58376
28 43563 66829 72838
08074
57080
15446 11034
98143
74898 26885
29 19945 84193 57581
77252
83604
45412 43556
27518
90572 00563
30 79374 23796 16919
99691
80276
32818 62953
78831
54395 30705
31 48503 26615 43980
09810
38289
66679 73799
48418
12647 40044
32 32049 65541 37937
41105
70106
89706 40829
40789
59457 00783
33 18547 71562 95493
34112
76895
46766 96395
31718
48302 45893
34 03180 96742 61486
43305
84183
99605 67803
13491
09243 29557
35 94822 24738 67749
83748
59799
25210 31093
62925
72061 69991
36
60599 85828
19152
68499
27977 35611
96240
62747 89529
37 43770 81537 59527
95674
76692
86420 69930
10020
72881 12592
38 56908 77192 50623
41215
14311
42834 80651
93750
59957 31211
39 32787 07189 80539
75927
75475
73965 11796
72140
48944 74156
40 52441 78392 11733
57703
29133
71164 55355
31006
25526 55790
4330
219

41 22377 54723 18227
28449
04570
18882 00023
67101
06895 08915
42 18376 73460 88841
39602
34049
20589 05701
08249
74213 25220
43 53201 28610 87957
21497
64729
64983 71551
99016
87903 63875
44 34919 78801 59710
27396
02593
05665 11964
44134
00273 76358
45 33617 92159 21971
16901
57383
34262 41744
60891
57624 06962
46 70010 40964 98780
72418
52571
18415 64362
90637
38034 04909
47 19282 68447 35665
31530
59838
49181 21914
65742
89815 39231
48 91429 73328 13266
54898
68795
40948 80808
63887
89939 47938
49 97637 78393 33021
05867
86520
45363 43066
00988
64040 09803
50 95150 07625 05255
83254
93943
52325 93230
62668
79529 66964
(Ngun: Rohlf v Sokal, Cc bng thng k, 1969, p.153)
Chng ta hy ly mt v d minh ha vic s dng bn cc s ngu

nhin ny. Chng ta hy gi s rng tp hp gc gm 256 c th. nh s c
th t 1 n 256. Chn ngu nhin trang bt u, s ct (1 n 10) hay s
dng t bng ny v sau xc nh ba dng s hay ct s.
Gi s bn chn ct s th chn v ba ch s sau cng ca ct ny
(c gch di). Gi thit rng bn chn 10 phn trm ca tp hp gc cho
mu ca mnh (25 phn t). Chng ta hy i ti nhng s c gch di
trong ct th chn. S u tin l 049 thp hn 256 (tng dn s), do
phn t th 49 l mt phn trong mu ca bn. S th hai, 319, nhiu hn
tng s cc phn t trong tp hp ca bn (256), do , bn khng th chp
nhn phn t th 319 trong mu. Cng p dng nh th cho phn t tip
theo, 758, v cho nm phn t k tip na, 589, 507, 483, 487 v 540. Sau
540 l 232, v v con s ny nm trong khung ca mu, c th c chp
nhn nh mt phn ca mu. Tng t th, nu bn theo xung cng ba ch
s trong cng ct , bn chn ra 052, 029, 065, 246, 161 trc khi bn i
n s 029 ln na, v phn t th 29 c chn ri, hy i n s k tip
v c nh vy cho n khi chn xong 25 phn t. Mt khi bn i n
220
cui ct, bn c th di chuyn n ct k tip hoc chn la ngu nhin mt

ci khc bt u qu trnh chn la. V d, 25 phn t sau c chn t
cc ct th chin, mi v nh trong bng 12.3
Bng 12.4. Cc phn t c chn bng cch dng bng cc s ngu nhin
Cc phn t c chn la
#
49
232
52
29
65
246
161
243
61
213
34
40
63
68
108
72
25
234
44
211
156
220
231 (ct th 10)

@
149
246
# mu chn t ct th 9
* mu chn t ct th 10
@ mu chn t ct th 2 (Ngun: Rohlf v Sokal, 1969)
C th tm thy vi chng trnh my tnh c dng chn mu cn
thit.
12.9. S DNG CC H THNG KHC CHN MU NGU
NHIN
C hai cch chn mu ngu nhin l chn mu khng thay th v chn
mu c thay th.
Gi s bn mun chn mt mu 20 sinh vin t tng s 80, ta chn
sinh vin u tin ra khi lp, th xc sut chn sinh vin l 1/80. Khi
221
bn chn sinh vin th nh, ch c 79 cn li trong lp v xc sut chn sinh

vin th nh ny khng phi l 1/80 m 1/79. Xc sut la chn sinh vin
tip theo l 1/78. Theo thi gian, bn chn c sinh vin th 20, xc sut
cho vic chn anh hoc c ta l 1/61. Cch ly mu ny l ly mu khng
thay th. Nhng n ngc li nh ngha c bn v s ngu nhin ha: mi
phn t u c c hi c chn la tng ng v c lp nhau. h
thng th hai, c gi l ly mu c thay th, phn t c chn la c
thay th trong tp hp ngun, v nu n c chn li ln na, ngi ta b
n i v chn ci k tip. Nu tp hp ngun ln, xc sut chn li cng mt
phn t l rt nh.
12.10. KIU LY MU XC SUT / NGU NHIN C TRNG
C ba kiu ly mu ngu nhin thng dng.
Ly mu hon ton ngu nhin (SRS) y l phng php
chn mu xc sut thng dng nht. Theo nh ngha ca s ngu nhin
ha, bi tng phn t trong tp hp u c mt c hi c chn la tng
ng v c lp nhau, mt mu hon ton ngu nhin c chn theo quy
trnh sau:
Bc 1: nh danh cc phn t hoc cc n v ly mu trong tp hp
bng mt con s.
Bc 2: Quyt nh kch c mu (n).
Bc 3: Chn (n) bng cch dng cch rt thm ngu nhin, bng cc
s ngu nhin hay mt chng trnh my tnh.
minh ha, chng ta hy ly v d v lp hc. C 80 sinh vin trong
lp, nn bc u tin l nh s tng sinh vin t 1 n 80. Gi s bn
quyt nh chn mt mu c 20 phn t bng cch dng phng php ly
mu hon ton ngu nhin. Ta dng rt thm ngu nhin, bng cc s ngu
nhin hoc chng trnh my tnh chn ra 20 sinh vin. 20 sinh vin ny
s l c s ca nghin cu ca bn.
222
Ly mu ngu nhin theo loi nh ni, chnh xc ca cc

d on ca bn ph thuc phn ln vo mc kh nng bin thin hay s
khng ng nht ca cc c im trong tp hp nghin cu m chng
tng quan cht ch vi c im bn ang c gng xc nh (nguyn tc
ba). Do vy, vi mt kch c mu cho trc, nu bng cch no , s bt
ng nht trong tp hp gim bt, ta s c nhng d on vi chnh xc
cao hn. Ly mu ngu nhin theo loi da trn lp lun ny.
Trong ly mu ngu nhin theo loi, ngi nghin cu c gng phn
loi tp hp theo cch m tp hp trong cng mt phn lp s ng nht v
c im m da vo ta phn loi. Mt im rt quan trng l nhng c
im c chn lm c s phn loi c th nh dng d dng trong tp
hp . V d, phn loi dn s da tn gii tnh hn l trn tui, thu
nhp hoc thi . Vic cc c im l c s cho vic phn loi c lin
quan n bin chnh m ngi nghin cu ang kho st cng rt quan
trng. Mt khi tp hp mu c phn chia thnh cc nhm khng trng
lp, nh nghin cu chn mt s lng cc phn t yu cu t mi phn lp
bng k thut ly mu ngu nhin hon ton.
C hai kiu ly mu theo loi: ly mu theo loi theo t l v khng
theo t l.
- Vi ly mu theo loi theo t l, s lng phn t t mi phn lp c
lin quan tng t l ca n trong tp hp gc c chn, trong khi
- Phng php ly mu theo loi khng theo t l, ta khng cn nhc
ti kch c ca phn lp.
Quy trnh cho vic chn mu theo loi c trnh by theo gin
trong bng 12.5
Bc 1: nh danh tt c cc phn t hoc cc n v ly mu trong
tp hp c ly mu.
Bc 2: Xc nh cc phn lp khc nhau (k) m ta mun phn loi
tp hp vo .
223
Bc 3: Xp tng phn t vo trong phn lp thch hp.

Bc 4: nh s ring r cho tng phn t trong mi phn lp
Bc 5: Xc nh kch c mu (n)
Bc 6: Quyt nh liu ta mun chn phng php ly mu theo loi
theo t l hay khng theo t l v hy theo cc bc sau
Bng 12.5: Quy trnh chn mu theo loi
Bc 7
Xc nh s phn t c
chn t tng phn lp =
Bc 7
kch c mu (n)
Xc nh t l ca tng
phn lp trong tp hp
nghin cu (p) =
S phn t trong mi
phn lp
s lng phn lp (k)
Kch c tp hp gc
Bc 8
Chn s phn t yu cu t
mi phn lp vi k thut ly
mu hon ton ngu nhin.
Bc 8
Xc nh s phn t c
chn t tng phn lp =
(kch c mu) x (p).
Bc 9
Chn s phn t yu cu
t tng phn lp bng k
thut ly mu hon ton
ngu nhin.
Ly mu theo loi khng theo t l.
Ly mu theo loi theo t l.
V phng php trn khng quan tm

n kch c ca phn lp trong vic
chn mu, n c gi l phng php
ly mu theo loi khng theo t l.
V mu c chn theo t l ca
kch c tng phn lp trong tp
hp, phng php ny gi l ly
mu theo loi theo t l.
Chn mu theo cm cc k thut chn mu theo loi v hon

ton ngu nhin da trn kh nng nhn bit tng phn t trong tp hp ca
nh nghin cu. Lm iu ny rt d nu nh tp hp gc ly mu nh,
224
nhng nu tp hp ln nh trong trng hp ca mt thnh ph, bang,

hay quc gia, vic xc nh tng n v ly mu s kh khn v tn km.
Trong nhng trng hp ny, vic s dng ly mu theo cm s thch hp
hn.
Ly mu theo cm da trn kh nng ca nh nghin cu phn chia
tp hp c ly mu thnh tng nhm, gi l cm, v sau chn cc
phn t trong tng cm bng k thut ly mu hon ton ngu nhin. Cc
cm c th hnh thnh trn c s tng cn v mt a l, hoc mt t im
chung no c lin quan n bin ch yu ca nghin cu (nh trong ly
mu theo loi). Ty theo mc chia cm, i khi vic ly mu c thc
hin nhng mc khc nhau. Nhng mc ny hp thnh nhng giai
on khc nhau (mt, hai hay nhiu giai on) ca vic chia cm, s c
gii thch sau.
V d bn mun iu tra thi ca hc sinh trung hc c i vi
vn gio dc mi trng. C nc ta c cc gio dc mi trng bc
cao. Hn na, c nhiu loi hnh khc nhau nh, cc trng i hc khoa
hc t nhin, i hc k thut mi trng, i hc khoa hc x hi v nhn
vn, cao ng v cc trng cao ng cng ng u c chng trnh gio
dc mi trng. Trong tng hc vin, c nhiu chng trnh bc i hc
v cao hc. Tng chng trnh hc ko di khong ba n bn nm. Bn c
th hnh dung ra ln ca nhim v. Trong trng hp ny, ly mu theo
cm rt hu dng chn mt mu ngu nhin.
Mc u tin ca ly mu theo cm c th min hay vng lnh
th. Cc cm c th c nhm theo cc c im m bo kh nng so
snh ca chng theo s lng sinh vin. Nu vic ny khng d, bn c th
quyt nh chn tt c cc min (Bc, Trung, Nam hay ng Nam B, Ty
Nam B ) v vng lnh th v chn mt mu no cp hc vin. V
d, vi k thut hon ton ngu nhin, ta c th chn mt hc vin t mt
nhm trong tng min, vd, mt vin i hc, mt vin i hc k thut, mt
trng cao ng, mt trng cao ng cng ng. iu ny da trn gi
225
nh rng cc hc vin trong cng mt nhm tng i ging nhau v h s

sinh vin. Sau , trong mt hc vin, da trn c s ngu nhin, ta chn
mt hay nhiu chng trnh hc (k thut MT, qun l MT hay KHMT) ty
theo kh nng. Trong mt chng trnh hc, v d QLMT ta chn mt cc
sinh vin hc ti mt nm c th no . Ta c th thc hin thm la chn
v t l sinh vin no . Qu trnh chn mu theo cch ny c gi l ly
mu theo cm nhiu bc.
12.11. CC KIU LY MU XC SUT KHNG NGU NHIN
Cc kiu ly mu xc sut khng ngu nhin khng theo l thuyt xc
sut trong vic chn nhng phn t t tp hp ngun. Cc kiu ly mu xc
sut khng ngu nhin khi ta khng bit hay khng th nh danh ring r
mt s phn t trong mt tp hp no . Trong nhng tnh hung nh vy,
vic chn cc phn t ty thuc vo nhng cn nhc khc. C bn kiu
khng ngu nhin thng c dng trong nhng nghin cu nh lng v
nh tnh, m mi kiu u da trn nhng cn nhc khc nhau:
ly mu theo hn ngch;
ly mu tnh c;
ly mu c mc ch hoc c ch ; v
ly mu
trn cc i tng nghin cu khc nhau:
i hc,
i hc k thut,
cao ng,
cao ng cng ng.
12.11.1. Ly mu theo hn ngch
Cn nhc ch o cho vic ly mu theo hn ngch l vic nh nghin
cu d dng tip cn n dn s mu. Ngoi vic tin li, anh ta c hng
226
dn bi c tnh c th xc nh c, nh gii tnh hoc chng tc, ca tp

hp c quan tm. Mu c chn t ni thun tin cho ngi nghin cu
v bt k khi no ta thy mt ngi vi nhng c im lin quan c th
xc nh c, ta u yu cu ngi tham d nghin cu. Qu trnh ny
tip tc cho n khi ngi nghin cu c th lin h lng ngi tr li
yu cu (hn ngch).
Gi s rng bn mun chn mu 20 nam sinh vin tm ra tui trung
bnh ca nam sinh vin trong lp bn. Bn quyt nh ng ti ca lp, v
iu thun tin, v bt k khi no c mt nam sinh vin n lp, hy hi
tui anh ta. Qu trnh ny tip tc cho n khi bn hi c tui ca 20 nam
sinh vin. V d khc, bn mun bit thi ca sinh vin i vi ch
trng cm x rc. ng ti mt ni thun tin, v bt k khi no bn nhn
thy mt vinh vin th dn no , hy hi thng tin yu cu bng bt k
cch no bn thc hin cho vic nghin cu.
Kiu ly mu ny c nhng u im l phng php chn mu t tn
km nht, bn khng cn bt k thng tin g nh khung ca mu, tng s
cc phn t , v tr ca h, cc thng tin khc v dn s mu, v n m bo
bao gm loi ngi bn cn. Nhc im ca phng php ny l mu thu
c khng phi l mt mu xc sut, nhng g tm c khng th tng
qut ha cho ton b tp hp ngun; nhng c nhn d tip cn nht c th
c nhng c im chung ging nhau, v do vy, khng tht s i din cho
ton b tp hp gc.
12.11.2. Ly mu tnh c
Vic ly mu tnh c cng da trn vic d tip cn tp hp c ly
mu. Trong khi ly mu theo hn ngch phi i theo mt mu c nh.
Trong khi ly mu theo hn ngch bao gm nhng i tng c nhng c
im hin hin/c th quan st c, ly mu tnh c khng lm nh th.
Phng php ly mu ny ph bin trong vic nghin cu qun l mi
trng ng thi hnh vi ng x mi trng. t nhiu g, n cng c nhng
u nhc im nh ly mu theo hn ngch. V bn khng c hng dn
227
bi nhng c tnh hin nhin, nn mt s ngi bn lin h c th khng

c thng tin cn thit.
12.11.3. Ly mu c mc ch hay ch
Cn nhc ch yu trong vic ly mu c ch ch l s nh gi t
ngi nghin cu nh ngi cung cp thng tin tt nht hon thnh mc
tiu ca nghin cu. Ngi nghin cu ch i n nhng ngi no m theo
quan im ca ngi nghin cu c th c thng tin theo yu cu v vui
lng chia s n.
Kiu ly mu ny cc k hu dng khi bn mun xy dng mt ln
lp li qu kh, m t mt hin tng hay pht trin ci g t c bit n.
12.11.4. Ly mu theo mng li chui
Ly mu qu cu tuyt l qu trnh chn mu bng cch dng mng
li / hi. Bt u vi vic chn la mt t c nhn trong mt nhm hay
mt t chc v thu thp t h thng tin yu cu. Sau , h c nh nhn
din nhng ngi khc trong nhm hoc t chc, v nhng ngi do h
chn tr thnh mt phn ca mu. Thu thp thng tin t nhng ngi ny
v sau nhng ngi ny c yu cu nhn nhin nhng thnh vin
khc trong nhm, v ln lt nh vy, nhng ngi c nhn din tr
thnh c s ca vic thu thp thng tin tip theo. Qu trnh ny tip tc
cho n khi t c s ngi cn thit hoc n im bo ha. Bng cch
ny, ta tm kim thng tin.
K thut ly mu ny hu dng nu bn ch bit t v nhm hay t
chc bn mun nghin cu, v bn ch cn lin h vi mt t thnh vin,
nhng ngi ny s hng bn n nhng thnh vin khc ca nhm .
Phng php chn mu ny hu dng khi ta nghin cu nhng kiu giao
tip, cch ra quyt nh hoc s truyn b kin thc mi trng trong mt
nhm no . Tuy th, phng php ny cng c nhng nhc im vic
chn la ton b mu da trn tn vic chn la ca cc c nhn giai on
u. Nu h thuc v mt b phi c th no hoc c nhng thin kin
228
mnh m, nghin cu c th b lch lc. iu ny th hin khi iu tra nh

gi tc ng mi trng hay s dng ti nguyn mt i phng, cng
nh kh dng k thut ny khi mu tng i ln.
12.11.5. Cc kiu ly mu hn hp v kiu ly mu i xng
Ly mu i xng c phn trong loi ly mu hn hp v n c
nhng tnh cht ca c hai kiu ly mu ngu nhin v khng ngu nhin
Trong kiu ly mu hn hp, u tin, khung ca vic ly mu c
chia thnh mt s phn khc, gi l khong. Sau , t khong u tin, ta
dng k thut ly mu ngu nhin hon ton chn mt phn t. Vic
chn la cc phn t tip sau t cc khong khc ty thuc vo trt t ca
cc phn t c chn trong khong u. Nu trong khong u ta chn
phn t th nm, th nhng phn t th nm ca tng khong tip sau cng
s c chn. Lu rng, vic chn mt phn t khong u tin da trn
c s ngu nhin, nhng vic chn la cc phn t cc khong tip sau
ty thuc vo s chn la ca ci u tin. Do vy, khng th c phn
loi l mt mu ngu nhin c. V l do ny, n c phn loi nh cch
ly mu hn hp. Quy trnh dng trong ly mu i xng nh sau:
Bc 1: Chun b danh sch tt c cc phn t trong tp hp nghin
cu (N)
Bc 2: Xc nh kch c mu (n).
Bc 3: Xc nh rng ca khong = Tp hp tng / kch c mu = k.
Bc 4: Dng phng php ly mu ngu nhin hon ton, chn mt
phn t khong u tin (th t th n).
Bc 5, chn nhng phn t c th t ging nhau t mi khong
tip sau.
D cho quy trnh chung cho vic chn mu theo kiu i xng c
m t trn, ngi ta c th bin th n bng cch chn nhng phn t
khc nhau t mi khong bng k thut chn mu hon ton ngu nhin.
229
Bng cch ny, ly mu i xng c th c phn loi nh cc kiu ly

mu xc sut.
Ly mu i xng
Khung ly mu
1
14
26
39
15
27
40
16
28
29
41
3
4
5
17
30
42
18
19
43
44
20
45
Mu c chn
3
8
13
18
31
23
32
28
8
9
21
33
34
46
33
47
38
10
23
24
35
48
49
43
22
25
48
50
11
36
12
37
13
38
Hnh 12.2. Chn mu i xng

chn mt mu i xng, ta phi c mt khung ly mu. i khi
vic ny l khng th hoc qu t tin c mt ci nh vy. Tuy th,
trong thc t, c nhng tnh hung c tn ti khung ly mu, v d, cc ghi
230
chp quan trc mi trng khng kh, mi trng nc, mi trng t,

danh sch ghi danh ca sinh vin tham gia chng trnh xanh sch ca thnh
ph, danh sch nhng ngi mc bnh do nhim mi trng trong mt
khu vc no , h s nhn vin lm trong mt t chc qun l ti nguyn
mi trng no . Tt c nhng ci ny c th c dng nh mt mt
khung chn mu bng k thut ly mu i xng. S tin li ca vic c
khung ly mu sn c gi ca n; trong vi trng hp, n khng thc s l
mt danh sch ngu nhin. Cn c vo mt s trng hp, phn ln nhng
danh sch ny c xp theo th t bng ch ci, hoc c sp xp theo
mt cch no tin li cho ngi dng cc ghi chp ny. Nu chiu rng
ca khong ln, v d, t 1 n 30 trng hp, v nu cc trng hp ny
c sp xp theo th t bng ch ci, bn c th loi b h ca mt s
ngi bt u cng ch ci hoc gn thm mt t khng bao gm trong y.
Gi s bn c 50 mu nc thi v bn mun chn 10 mu nh
gi bng k thut ly mu i xng ny, bc u tin l chn rng
khong (5/10=5). iu c ngha l t mi nm mu nc thi, bn cn
chn ra mt phn t. Dng k thut ly mu hon ton ngu nhin, t
khong u (cc phn t 1-5), hy chn mt trong cc phn t . Gi s
bn chn phn t th 3. T cc khong cn li, bn chn cc phn t th ba.
(xem hnh 12.2).
12.12. TNH TON KCH C MU
Mu ti chn nn c ln bao nhiu? Kch c mu ca ti l g?
Ti cn bao nhiu trng hp?. y l nhng cu thng c hi. C
bn, n ty thuc vo ci bn mun lm vi cc tm kim ca mnh v bn
mun xc nh loi quan h no. Mc ch ca bn trong vic thc hin
nghin cu l nhn t quyt nh ch yu mc chnh xc m kt qu yu
cu. Trong vic xc nh kch c mu ca mnh, bn cn cn nhc nhng
iu sau:
tin cy bn mun th kt qu, cc tm kim hoc gi thit ca
mnh l bao nhiu?
231
Bn mun mun c lng cc thng s ca tp hp vi chnh xc

no?
Mc bin thin k vng ( lch chun) no cho bin chnh bn
ang nghin cu trong tp hp?
Bt k vic bn t quyt nh kch c mu hay c mt chuyn gia lm
iu thay bn, vic tr li cc cu hi ny l cn thit. Kch thc ca
mu rt quan trng th mt gi thit hay xc nh mt lin kt, nhng
cho tt c nghin cu khc, c mt quy lut chung, kch c mu cng ln,
chnh xc bn d on cng cao. Thc t, kinh ph nghin cu ca bn
quyt nh kch c mu. Mt khc n cn ph thuc vo kh nng ca bn
trong vic chn mu. Trong gii hn ca ngn sch, nm vic bn chn
cc phn t ca mnh chng i din y v hu hiu tp hp c
ly mu ca bn.
minh ha cho qu trnh ny, chng ta hy ly v d v qu trnh ly
mu nhim t. Gi s bn mun tm nhim kim loi nng trung bnh
ca mu t vng nghin cu vi s chnh xc 0,5 ppm, ngha l bn chu
mt sai lm 0,5ppm cho bt k pha no ln hn (+) hay nh hn (-) ca
nhim kim loi nng trung bnh tht s. Chng ta gi s rng, bn mun bit
hm lng kim loi nng trung bnh chnh xc trong 0,5ppm vi tin cy
95%, ngha l bn mun c 95% tin cy nhng g bn tm ra.
Cng thc xc nh gii hn tin cy l
_
x = x (t 0.5 )
Trong ,
= gi tr k vng ca trung bnh tp hp

x = tui trung bnh tnh t mu
t 0.5 = gi tr ca t mc tin cy 95%
232
= sai s chun
= lch chun
= kch c mu
= cn bc hai
Nu bn xc nh chu mt sai s 0,5 ppm, c ngha l
_
x = x (t0.5 )
Hay ni cch khc, chng ta thch x = x 0.5

Hoc tra bng c sn
(Gi tr ca t0.005 = 1,96)
Mc
0,02
0,10
0,05?
0,02
0,01
0,001
Gi tr t
1.282
1.645
1.960?
2.326
2.576
3.291
1.96
0.5
Ch c mt s hng khng bit trong phng trnh trn:

By gi vn chnh l lm sao tm c gi tr ca m khng phi
thu thp s liu. y l vn ln nht trong vic c lng kch c mu.
Bi v iu ny, vic bit c cng nhiu cng tt v tp hp nghin cu
rt quan trng.
Gi tr ca c th tm c t mt trong cc cch sau
1. on;
2. Tham kho mt chuyn gia no ;
233
3. Ly gi tr ca t nhng nghin cu c kh nng so snh trc;

hoc
4. Thc hin mt nghin cu th nghim tnh ton gi tr ny
Chng ta gi s l mt ppm (kim loi nng, nhim t)
1.96
= 3.92
0 .5
= 15.37 hay 16
Do vy, xc nh nhim KLN nng trong t trung bnh ca
mt vng nghin cu chnh xc 95% (gi s rng = 1ppm) vi sai
lm 0,5ppm, ta cn ti thiu l 16 mu phn tch.
By gi gi s thay v 95%, bn mun tin cy 99% cho tui c
tnh, chu mt sai lm 0,5ppm.
2.576 1
0 .5
= 26,54 hay 27
V vy, nu bn mun tin cy 99% v sn sng chu sai lm
0,5ppm nhim KLN trong t, bn cn chn mt 27 mu t phn tch.
Mt cch tng t, bn c th tnh kch c mu vi nhng gi tr thay i.
TIU KT
Trong chng ny, bn hc cch ly mu, qu trnh chn vi phn t
t tp hp phi chn mu. Ly mu, theo mt cch khc, l s nh i gia
chnh xc v ngun lc. Thng qua vic ly mu, bn lm mt c on v
thng tin ang quan tm. Bn khng tm trung bnh tht s ca tp hp.
Ba nguyn tc hng dn vic ly mu. Mt trong nhng nguyn tc
quan trng nht l: nu nhng ci khc khng thay i, kch thc mu cng
ln, chnh xc cho cc c lng cho trung bnh tp hp tht s cng
234
cao. Cc kt lun rt ra t mt mu no c th b nh hng bi kch c

mu v bin thin trong tp hp c ly mu.
Cc kiu ly mu c th phn loi thnh kiu ly mu ngu nhin hon
ton, kiu ly mu xc sut/ngu nhin, kiu ly mu xc sut / khng ngu
nhin, v kiu ly mu hn hp. Cho mt v d ca kiu gi l mu ngu
nhin, mi phn t trong tp hp nghin cu u c c hi c chn la
nh nhau v c lp. Ba kiu ngu nhin c tho lun: ly mu hon ton
ngu nhin, ly mu ngu nhin theo loi v ly mu ngu nhin theo cm.
Cc quy trnh chn mu theo nhng kiu ny c chi tit tng bc mt.
Vic dng k thut rt thm ngu nhin, bng s ngu nhin, v cc chng
trnh my tnh c thit k c bit l ba phng php chn mu xc sut
thng dng nht.
C bn cch ly mu khng xc sut: hn ngch, tnh c, c ch v
cu tuyt. Mi cch c dng cho mt mc ch khc nhau v tnh hung
khc nhau.
Ly mu i xng c xp trong phn hn hp v n c nhng c
im ca c hai kiu ly mu xc sut v ly mu khng xc sut.
Phn cui cng ca chng m t cc yu t quyt nh ca v cc
quy trnh cho vic tnh ton kch c mu. D n hi kh cho ngi mi bt
u, nhng n vn c gp chung vo y bn nhn thc c cc yu
t quyt nh c tham gia v ta vn thng hi cc cu hi lin quan ti
phn ny.
Cu hi:
1. Th no l ly mu?
2. Cc thut ng trong vic ly mu?
3. Cc nguyn tc ly mu l g?
4. Cc mc tiu trong vic chn mu?
5. C my hnh thc ly mu? l nhng hnh thc no?
6. Kiu ly mu xc sut ngu nhin v kiu ly mu xc sut khng
ngu nhin c nhng u nhc im nh th no?
7. th no l kiu ly mu hn hp? u, nhc im ca kiu ly mu
hn hp?
235
8. Cc phng php chn mu ngu nhin no thng c s dng

nht?
9. Kch c mu c ly nh th no l hp l nht?
10. Mt s yu t nh hng n kt lun rt ra t mu?
Ti liu tham kho:
NXB Gio Dc.
Hc(Cm nang hng dn tng bc dnh cho ngi bt u). Nh
Ch Minh. H Ch Minh.
236
CHNG 13
CCH VIT MT XUT

NGHIN CU
13.1. XUT NGHIN CU
Mt xut nghin cu l mt k hoch tng th, mt kt cu, mt
chin lc c vch ra nhm tr li cho cc cu hi nghin cu hoc
nhng vn nghin cu m lp thnh chng trnh nghin cu. Mt
xut nghin cu nn phc tho ra cc nhim v khc nhau m bn d nh
thc hin hon thnh cc mc tiu nghin cu ca mnh, kim tra cc gi
thit hay thu c nhng cu tr li cho nhng cu hi nghin cu ca
mnh. Ngoi ra, n cn cho bit r cc l do cn thit phi thc hin nghin
cu . V cng nghin cu, n bo m v ti bo m cho ngi c
gi tr ca phng php lun i vi cc cu tr li thu c t nhng cu
hi nghin cu ng n v khch quan.
thc hin chc nng ny, mt xut nghin cu phi ch r cho
bn, ngi gim st nghin cu ca bn v nhng ngi phn bin cc
thng tin sau dy v ti ca bn:
xut lm g?
K hoch thc hin ra sao?
Ti sao li chn xut ?
Do , mt xut nghin cu bao gm cc thng tin sau:
Cc mc tiu ca ti.
Danh sch cc gi thit, nu bn c d nh kim tra chng.
Phc tho k hoch nghin cu
Cch sp t, b tr cho ti
236
Nhng cng c nghin cu m bn d nh s s dng.

Thng tin v kch thc mu v d kin ly mu.
Thng tin v cc th tc x l s liu.
Mt mc cc chng d kin cho bo co.
Nhng kh khn v hn ch.
D kin thi gian thc hin.
xut nghin cu cng chuyn ti mc ch v k hoch nghin cu
theo cch:
Cho php ngi nghin cu quay tr li vi xut ban u c
c s ch o trong cc quyt nh hnh ng cc giai on khc nhau
ca qu trnh nghin cu.
Thuyt phc ngi gim st (hng dn) hoc ngi phn bin
rng phng php lun c xut l hp l, c c s vng chc v kh
thi di dng cc cu tr li thu c t cc cu hi nghin cu hoc mc
ch nghin cu.
Mt s trng i hc hoc cc vin nghin cu c th c nhng yu
cu khc nhau i vi ni dung v hnh thc ca mt xut nghin cu.
Nhng yu cu ny cng rt khc nhau gia cc c quan, gia cc b mn
hoc gia nhng ngi hng dn khc nhau. (V vy, cc nguyn tc ch
o c a ra trong chng ny ch cung cp mt b khung (sn) ca
mt xut nghin cu c th c vit ra).
xut c th c th hin di dng cc gch u dng gi hoc
c th c vit ra di dng hc thut (bi lun). N cng phi bao gm
cc ti liu tham kho c sp xp theo nhm mc v mt mc lc sch
tham kho phn kt thc. Vic nghin cu cc ti liu tham kho lin quan
nn tp trung vo cc n phm chnh theo ch xc nh. Cu trc l
thuyt cho nghin cu phi ni bt t vic xem xt li cc ti liu ny v
phi c nn tng l thuyt t kinh nghim. thnh mt quy lut, vic tng
hp ti liu bao gm:
237
Xc nh c quan im ch o, l thuyt v kinh nghin v

nhng vn chnh c nghin cu.
Mt s pht hin chuyn quan trng lin quan vi ch ca
bn, cc vn nghin cu c nu ln trong ti liu v xc nh nhng
thiu st cha c gii quyt.
Vic tng hp ti liu cng nu ln cc vn lin quan vi phng
php lun. V d, n c th thm tra cc nghin cu khc tc ng nh
th no i vi nhng bin i chnh ph hp vi nghin cu ca bn, cc
phng php v cc th tc ph bnh nn c sp xp theo cc tiu
ring tng ng.
Cn ch rng, cng xut khng c cha phn c tiu :
Kho st ti liu hay Tng quan ti liu. L do l v cc ti liu tham
kho s c tp hp theo nhng quan im l l ca mnh hn l theo trnh
t thi gian. Cc vn c gii quyt vi phng php lun nghin cu
v nhng vn ph hp vi cc kha cnh khc nhau ca cc th tc
nghin cu cn c xem xt tho lun di nhng tiu ring bit tng
ng vi n. V d, nhng vn gn lin vi vic thit lp cng nghin
cu th di tiu cng nghin cu, nhng vn lin quan n
cng tc mu th c tiu phng php ly mu, v nhng ti liu gn
vi nhng cng c nghin cu th c tiu l ch tiu v phng php o
lng phn tch.
13.2. M U HAY LI GII THIU MT XUT NGHIN CU
Mt xut c bt u vi mt li gii thiu bao gm mt s
thng tin c lit k di y. Nn nh rng, mt s ni dung ngh
trong phn ny c th khng lin quan n nhng nghin cu c th no
, do vy cn thn trng trong vic la chn, ch chn nhng vn g
lin quan n nghin cu ca mnh. Trong khi vit phn ny, vic xem xt
tng hp cc ti liu (xem chng 3) l rt quan trng, nhm p ng 2
chc nng chnh:
238
1. Cho bit nhng ti liu khc nhau trong lnh vc bn nghin cu;
bng cch y, s gip bn m rng thm kin thc c bn ca mnh.
2. Cung cp nhng thng tin v cc phng php v nhng cch thc
khc nhau c mi ngi s dng trong nhng tnh hung tng t v cho
bn bit c nhng ci lm v nhng ci cha lm c.
Kiu loi, quy m, cht lng ca ti liu xem xt phn ln ph thuc
vo mc hc thut m bn vit cng. Cc ni dung ca phn ny c
th cng bin thin rt ln ty theo cc lnh vc nghin cu.
M u vi vic tng quan lnh vc nghin cu chnh, trc khi thu
hp dn dn vo trng tm ca vn nghin cu. Lm nh vy s bao trm
nhng kha cnh sau y ca lnh vc nghin cu:
Khi qut lnh vc nghin cu chnh.
Lch s hnh thnh, pht trin lin quan n lnh vc nghin cu.
Cc vn mang tnh khoa hc hoc k thut lin quan n ti.
Cc l thuyt ch o, nu cn.
Nhng vn chnh v ang gii quyt, nhng vn cha c
gii quyt v nhng bc tin trong lnh vc nghin cu.
Nhng vn l thuyt v thc tin quan trng lin quan ti vn
trng tm nghin cu.
Nhng pht hin chnh lin quan vi cc vn ct li.
Di y l 3 v d v phn m u/Li gii thiu cho cc xut
nghin cu vi cc ti:
V d A: Gi s bn ang tin hnh iu tra nghin cu tc ng ca
s nhp c ln mi trng ti nguyn a phng. M u/Li gii thiu s
c m t ngn gn nh sau:
Ngun gc ca s nhp c trn th gii.
239
Cc hc thuyt (l thuyt) tng qut c pht trin gii thch

cho hnh vi di c.
Cc l do di c.
Nhng xu hng di c hin nay ( quy m vng trong quc gia v
th gii).
Tc ng ca s nhp c t do ln mi trng ti nguyn a
phng (mt rng, mt thm ph, gy xi mn, mt nc mt, h su nc
ngm, ph v a dng sinh hc, suy thoi kinh t, gy xo trn x hi...).
S thay i ngh nghip
V.v...
V d B: Gi s d n nghin cu ca bn l nghin cu phn b
kim loi nng v nh hng ca n ln sc kho cng ng ti ng bng
sng Cu Long... (tn ca a phng). Li gii thiu/M u s bao gm:
Gii thiu c cht KLN, ngun gc, nh hng trn th gii v
Vit Nam
Hnh vi cc KLN trong cc mi trng thnh phn v nhng thay
i theo thi gian.
Nhng l do phi nghin cu KLN v nhng KLN no cn NC
theo thi gian.
V.v...
V d C: Gi s bn ang lp k hoch nghin cu mi quan h
gia thnh tch hc tp v mi trng x hi. M u/Li gii thiu c th
nh sau:
Vai tr ca gio dc trong mi trng x hi.
Nhng bin i ln trong trit l ca gio dc.
Nhng nhn t mi trng nh hng n gio dc.
240
S pht trin ca nn gio dc ...

Xu hng bin i ca t l tham gia gio dc ni chung v a
im nghin cu ni ring.
S thay i cc gi tr mang tnh gio dc.
Xu hng ca nn gio dc ...
V.v...
13.3. T VN
Chng ta c cung cp mt gii thiu tng quan v lnh vc
nghin cu, by gi ta tp trung vo nhng vn lin quan ti ch
chnh ca n, pht hin nhng thiu st trong hiu bit hin thi, nhn bit
mt s cu hi chnh cha c cu tr li. chnh l nhng vn nghin
cu ch yu m bn phi tr li thng qua nghin cu ca mnh. Kin thc
c tng ln t cc nghin cu khc v t nhng ti liu v nhng vn
m bn ang xut nghin cu s c tch hp li trong phn ny. C
th, trong phn ny s:
Xc nh nhng vn c bn cho nghin cu ca bn.
Ch r cc kha cnh khc nhau/vin cnh khc nhau ca cc vn
.
Xc nh nhng thiu st chnh cn tn ti.
Thm mt s cu hi nghin cu chnh m bn mun tr li thng
qua nghin cu ca mnh.
Xc nh nhng kin thc g lin quan n nhng cu tr li ca
bn, ch r s khc bit ca nhng kin m cc ti liu trc cp
n, nu c.
Pht trin l lun cho nghin cu ca mnh cng vi s tham kho
ti liu mt cch t m nhm tm cch lp y cc thiu st tm ra.
241
Vi cc ch nh trn, di y l nhng phc tho m bn s s

dng trong phn t vn :
V d A:
Trong ti Dn c t do nh hng n ti nguyn mi trng, ta
hy ni v: Nhng vn g xut hin cho ti nguyn mi trng phi i
mt sau khi nhp c t do?
Nhng ngi nhp c phi lm g iu chnh hnh vi ca mnh
c li cho bn thn v bo v ti nguyn mi trng?
Cc kiu thay i g v mi trng t nhin v x hi c th xut
hin trong trong, sau khi nhp c t do? (l thuyt)
Nhng tc ng g c th xy ra i vi cc thnh phn mi trng
v cc mi quan h?
V mt tc ng, bn mun tr li nhng cu hi g thng qua
nghin cu ca mnh? Cc ti liu tham kho ni g v nhng vn ny?
Nhng quan im khc nhau v nhng vn ny l g? kin ca bn v
nhng vn ny?
V d B:
V ti xy dng khu du lch sinh thi Giang in, tnh ng Nai
cn a ra:
C nhng vn , nhng cuc tho lun, tranh ci v nhng s phn
bc g i vi vn xy dng khu du lch sinh thi Giang in, ng Nai?
Thi dn chng quanh vng trong x Giang in (ng h, phn
bc, cc ti liu ni g v nhng vn ny (c s khoa hc ca s phn
bc hay ng h).
Cc quan im/trin vng khc nhau i vi s ra i khu DLST
ny?
Nhng cu hi chnh m nghin cu ca bn s tr li l g?
242
Nhng pht hin ca bn s gip g cho s ra i khu DLST v

chng trnh pht trin?
V.v...
V d C:
V ti: Mi quan h gia trnh hc vn v hnh vi ng x mi
trng nhn vn. Cc im cn lu :
Nhng hc thuyt g c pht trin gii thch mi quan h
gia trnh hc vn v mi trng x hi, nhn vn, hnh vi mi trng,
o c mi trng.
Mi quan h gia trnh hc vn v mi trng l g? Kiu hc
thuyt no s lm c s cho nghin cu ca bn?
Nhng hc thuyt trc y v nhng nghin cu ni g v vic c
lin quan ti cc hp phn ca kiu hc thuyt v trnh hc vn, v d nh, v
mi quan h gia trnh hc vn v :
- Lng t trng v kht vng/ng lc ca 1 hc sinh.
- Nhng nh hng ca nhm ngi cng tui, nhng iu kin mi
trng t nhin.
- Mi trng gia nh (vi cha m) v mi lin h ca n vi tnh
trng kinh t x hi, ca i tng nghin cu.
- ng lc, nng lc v s thch ca ngi c hc vn khc nhau.
- Trin vng ca mi trng nhn vn trong giai on cng nghip
ha v sau cng nghip ha.
13.4 MC CH NGHIN CU
Phn ny bao gm c mc ch chnh (hay mc ch lu di) v mc
ch ph (hay mc ch trc mt) ca ti nghin cu (xem chng 4).
Mc ch lu di cho bit trng tm chnh m nghin cu cn t n, trong
khi mc tiu trc mt ch r nhng vn c th m bn xut thm tra.
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Cc mc tiu nghin cu nn trnh by r rng v c th mt cch t

nhin. Vi mi mt mc tiu trc mt nn phc ha ch mt vn . Cc
mc tiu trc mt nn s dng cc ng t nh hng hnh ng nh:
xc nh, tm ra, tm hiu... trong cu v nh s th t mi cu cho
mi mc tiu. Nu mc ch l kim tra mt gi thit, bn phi trnh by gi
thit mt cch r rng, mch lc.
(Xin lu , qua hn 34 nm lm ging dy i hc v trn i hc,
ngi vit thy rt nhiu bn nghin cu khng vit ni cc mc tiu hoc
nhm ln gia mc tiu v ni dung cng vic phi lm. Nht l phn
Phng php lun nghin cu, nhiu bn khng hiu phi vit g).
V d A: V ti: Di dn t do nh hng ln ti nguyn mi trng
(dng rt gn)
- Mc tiu lu di: nh gi tc ng ca vn nhp c t do ln
mi trng ti nguyn v pht trin bn vng ca vng nghin cu.
- Mc tiu trc mt:
1. Xc nh tc ng ca s nhp c ln ti nguyn rng, din tch
t, cht lng t, nc mt, nc ngm.
2. Tm tc ng ca s nhp c ln cc mi quan h x hi trong
vng.
3. nh gi nhng thoi ho xung cp t rng, kinh t rng, kinh t
sinh thi
4. Xc nh nhng thay i trong h sinh thi khu vc.
V d B: V ti: Xy dng khu du lch sinh thi Giang in, tnh
ng Nai th:
- Mc tiu lu di: Nhm xc nh ch tiu, phng cch xy dng
khu du lch sinh thi cho mt vng c tim nng min ng Nam B.
- Mc tiu trc mt:
244
1. Xc nh phng thc v hnh thc xy dng khu DLST cho Giang

in.
2. Ch ra cc yu t m cc nh quy hoch DLST phi lm cho DLST
Giang in.
3. Xc nh mi quan h, nu c, gia cc c im kinh t sinh thi
ca DLST.
V d C: V ti: Quan h gia trnh hc vn v hnh vi ng x
mi trng nhn vn th:
- Mc tiu lu di: Xem xt mi quan h gia trnh hc vn v mi
trng nhn vn, hnh vi ng x mi trng.
- Mc tiu trc mt:
1. Tm ra mi quan h gia lng t trng o c mi trng v hc
lc trng ca 1 sinh vin, nu c.
2. nh gi s lin kt gia s qu trng ti nguyn ca cc hc sinh
c nghin cu vi hc lc ca h.
3. Kim tra cc mi quan h hnh vi ng x bo v mi trng v hc
lc ca chng.
4. Khm ph ra mi quan h gia hc lc v thi ca hc sinh i
vi mn hc mi trng
13.5. CC GI THIT C KIM TRA
Mt gi thit l mt tuyn b tha nhn ca bn v s ph bin ca
mt hin tng hoc v mi quan h gia 2 bin s m bn d kin kim tra
trong khun kh ca nghin cu (xem chng 6). Nu bn c nh kim
tra cc gi thit, hy lit k chng vo phn ny.
Khi trnh by mt gi thit, bn c ngha v tp trung cc kt lun v
n trong mt on ca bo co. Cc gi thit c mt kiu trnh by c bit.
Bn phi thnh tho trong cch din t chng. Trong mt nghin cu, c
245
th c nhiu gi thit m bn mun kim tra. Tuy nhin, khng nht thit
phi c mt gi thit mi c mt nghin cu - bn c th thc hin c
mt nghin cu hon ho m khng c mt gi thit.
V d A:
H1 = Trong hu ht cc trng hp s c mt s thay i mi trng
sau khi nhp c?
H2 = a s cc trng hp s c s thay i ti nguyn mi tng
rng?
H3 = v.v...
V d B:
H1 = Khi thnh lp khu DLST s hu hoi mi tng khu vc?
H2 = C th h sinh thi khu du lch ny s c ci thin sau khi
xy dng ng cch?
H3 = v.v...
V d C:
H1 = o c mi trng ca mt hc sinh v hc lc ca n c
quan h t l thun vi nhau mt cch r rng?
H2 = i vi nhng sinh vin c nghin cu, h c hnh vi ng x
mi trng t hn khi hc lc ca h cao hn?
H3 = Thi ca hc sinh i vi ti nguyn thin nhin cng c
quan h cht ch vi hc lc ca h?
H4 = v.v...
13.6. K HOCH NGHIN CU
m t k hoch nghin cu (xem chi tit chng 8), bn d kin
s dng cu tr li cho cc cu hi nghin cu (v d: c hay khng s ct
ngang k hoch, cc cng vic trc v sau, c th nghim hay khng th
246
nghim). Xc nh nhng u im v khuyt im ca k hoch nghin cu,

k c nhng chi tit v cc hot ng sau nghin cu m bn c nh theo
ui trong khi thc hin k hoch nghin cu. Mt c trng ca mt k
hoch nghin cu tt l n gii thch chi tit, r rng n mc m, nu c
mt ngi khc mun theo ui cc hot ng xut th h c th lm mt
cch chnh xc ging nh bn thc hin. Mt k hoch nghin cu bao gm
cc thng tin sau:
Ai to ra mu nghin cu chun? Hay ai b tr th nghim, ly mu
v phn tch mu?
C th xc nh c tng thnh phn ca mu nghin cu chun
hay khng? Nu c th bng cch no? (Phng php phn tch ha l, sinh
hc, cng ngh mi trng hay tin hc mi trng).
Tng s mu s c nghin cu, v tr ly mu, bo qun mu
bng cch no?
Bn s la chn mu theo nguyn tc no? Ngu nhin, tun t hay
kt hp.
Vi ti qun l mi trng, mi trng nhn vn th s liu s
c thu thp bng cch no? (V d nh: phng vn, bng cu hi thm d
kin, hay bng quan trc).
Trong trng hp bng cu hi thm d kin c gi qua ng
bu in th bn s gi theo a ch no?
Bn c d nh gi mt bn nhc nh khng?
S bo mt s c gi gn nh th no?
Nu h c nhng thc mc th s lin lc vi bn nh th no v u?
V d A: ( ti ni trn)
Nghin cu c ln k hoch trc ht l tm ra nhng ngi nhp
c tiu biu t...,... (tn vng, v d t min ni min Bc vo hay t ven
bin min Trung ln hay t Bc Trung B vo Ty Nguyn) v cc tc ng
247
thy r ca s nhp c ln ti nguyn mi trng. Mi lin h ban u cng

vi s kt hp cc tc ngi nhng vng s c to lp thng qua
lm n sinh sng. Nm ngi nhp c s c la chn mt cch ngu
nhin t danh sch , v s c lin lc bng in thoi gii thch mc
ch ca nghin cu cng nh s cn thit ca n, v nhm tm kim s
ng ca h tham gia vo nghin cu. Nhng ngi ng s c
phng vn ti nh ca h hoc mt ni no khc thun tin. la chn
mu nhiu hn na, phng php ly mu theo kiu nm xi s c s
dng n khi no t c kch c mu nh mong mun.
V d B: ( ti ni trn)
K hoch nghin cu c vch ra tm hiu quy hoch DLST cn
xy dng cc bc nghin cu hin trng ra sao, xc nh kh nng tim
tng, sau ln phc tho d n theo iu kin t, nc, sinh cnh
cho ph hp. Cui cng xc nh bi ton kinh t sinh thi bao nhiu tham
s v gii n... C to thnh mt nghin cu chun lm mu. T cc s liu
c xc nh cc bc nghin cu, ly mu ph hp. Do hn ch v thi
gian v kinh ph, tc gi khng th la chn thng tin t tt c cc ngnh,
m ch c th la chn mt mu bng 50% mu nghin cu chun vi mt
chin lc ly mu c xut. i vi nhng ni dung iu tra mi
trng x hi, cc bng cu hi thm d kin, mt l th gi km ca vn
phng s c gi i cng vi mt phong b dn sn tem. Nhng ngi
tr li s c yu cu gi li bng cu hi thm d kin vo ngy...
thng... nm... (sau khi tr li). Mt bc th ca tc gi s c gi km
cng bng cu hi nhm gii thch cc mc ch v s cn thit ca nghin
cu, bo m s b mt danh tnh ca ngi tr li v h c th t chi
tham gia vo nghin cu nu h khng thch. Mt a ch (s) lin lc cng
s c cung cp trong trng hp ngi tr li c cc thc mc. Trong
trng hp t l ngi tr li thp (< 25%) th mt bn nhc nh s c
gi ti ngi tr li.
248
V d C: ( ti: ni trn)
Nghin cu mi trng trng hc (v d ca hc vin cao hc
Nguyn Th Mai, cn b hng dn GS TKH L Huy B) s c thc hin
4 trng trung hc cng lp trong khu vc trung tm Thnh ph H Ch
Minh. Tc gi s lin h vi cc v hiu trng ca cc trng gii thch
mc ch ca nghin cu v s cn thit phi c s gip t pha nh
trng, t tm kim s cho php cc hc sinh tham gia vo nghin cu.
Do hn ch v thi gian v kinh ph nn khng cho php tc gi la chn
nhiu hn 4 trng, s thng lng vi cc trng khc s dng li khi m
c 4 trng ng tham gia vo nghin cu v mi trng trong trng hc
ph thng Thnh ph H Ch Minh.
khng ch c s khc bit, c th hn ch v gii tnh ca hc
sinh, xut ch la chn cc hc sinh nam vo i tng nghin cu.
Mt khi m thy hiu trng ng chp nhn cho ti c thc
hin, ngi nghin cu s ch dn tng tn v ti cng nh nhng vn
c lin quan cho cc gio vin ph trch, v s sp xp ngy gi thc
hin cc cu hi thm d kin.
Khi cc hc sinh c tp hp sn sng tham gia vo nghin
cu, ngi nghin cu s gii thch mc ch ca n v nhng vn c
kin quan, ri phn pht cc bng cu hi. Ngi nghin cu s li trong
lp tr li cc cu hi m hc sinh c th a ra.
13.7. TIP CN I TNG NGHIN CU
M t mt cch tng tn t chc, c quan hoc on th m bn s
tng tc trong nghin cu ca mnh. Nu nghin cu v mt nhm ngi,
nhn mnh mt s c im ni bt ca nhm (nh lch s ca nhm, quy
m, thnh phn, cu trc ca nhm) v cn ch n cc thng tin lin
quan c gi tr.
+ Nu nghin cu ca bn quan tm n mt c quan, vn phng hay
mt t chc, bn cn m t:
249
Cc dch v chnh c cung cp bi c quan, vn phng hay t chc.

Cu trc qun l ca n.
Cc loi khch hng c phc v, v
Thng tin v cc vn trng tm nghin cu ca bn.
+ Nu bn ang nghin cu v mi trng cng ng, hy m t
tng tn mt s c trng chnh nh:
Quy m ca cng ng.
Tm tt lch s x hi ca n (cng nh thnh phn ca cc nhm
khc nhau trong n)
Cc vn lin quan n ch trng tm ca nghin cu.
X rc trong cng ng, np sng mi tng vn ho, x hi...
thc bo v ti nguyn nc, mi trng nc, tit kim in
Cn ch rng, do ni dung mang m bn cht ring t nhin nn
rt kh cung cp cc v d.
Nu bn mun nghin cu mt mi trng t nhin no , bn phi:
Xc nh v tr a l, a hnh, a cht, kh hu, thy vn ca vng .
S qua v i tng mi trng nh: cy con, l lch qu trnh ca
n, c tnh sinh hc
13.8. CC TH TC O LNG TH NGHIM HAY IU TRA
Phn ny bao gm s tho lun v cng c nghin cu (xem chng 9
v 10) v nhng chi tit ca k hoch d tr nhng bin i chnh.
m u, hy chng minh s la chn cng c nghin cu ca bn
l ng, lm ni bt nhng u im v ch ra nhng nhc im ca n. Sau
phc tho ra nhng cng on chnh ca cng c nghin cu v s lin
quan ca n ti mc ch ca ti. Nu bn ang s dng cng c chun,
hy tho lun chi tit v tin cy v nhng cn c vng chc ca n. Nu
250
bng cch no bn tho lp v sa cha chng, hy m t v gii thch

nhng thay i m bn va to ra. V d phn tch hm lng K+, Na+ bng
my Flanphotometre ca Nht (hoc). Phn tch Cu, Ni, Bo, bng my
quang ph hp thu nguyn t ca M (hoc).
Cng cn tho lun, bng cch no bn bin nhng khi nim chnh
thnh hnh ng c th. V d, nu c th nh lng c, hy ch r n c
th c o nh th no. Nu bn d kin nh gi lng t trng ca mt
nhm ngi, ch cc biu hin chnh ca lng t trng v cc phng
php nh gi n (v d, thang t l Likert hay Thurstone, hoc cc phng
php khc). V d m t s lc nguyn l v dng c o BOD, COD, EC,
pH, cch v cng c xc nh Ecoly, Coliform, Nitrat, Nitrite, NH3, H2S,
CH4....
S rt l tng nu bn gn km 1 bn copy cng c nghin cu
theo xut nghin cu ca mnh (thng a vo phn Ph lc).
13.9. LY MU
Phn ny bao gm:
Kch thc ca mu chun (nu bit) v c th thu c thng
tin ny t u v bng cch no.
Kch thc mu m bn d nh la chn, cc l do m bn la
chn kch thc .
Gii thch v k hoch ly mu m bn d kin s dng (ly mu
ngu nhin n gin, ly mu ngu nhin theo lp, ly mu theo ch tiu,...).
Ta nn nh km mt bn trn ghi r im ly mu hay tuyn ly mu
c k hiu r rng.
V d A: ( ti ni trn)
Do thiu thng tin v v tr chnh xc ca cc gia nh nhp c to
nn kh khn cho vic s dng mt phng n ly mu kh thi, v vy
phng n ly mu c xut l ngi nghin cu s dng k thut ly
251
mu nm xi. Ngi nghin cu u tin s lin h vi 5 gia nh di c

t Bc Cn vo Ty Nguyn trong khong 7 10 nm trc y m bit
t trc, hoc da trn thng tin thu c t cc nhn vin vn th ca qun
l dn s hoc qua phng qun l ti nguyn v mi trng a phng. T
mi ngi tr li, tc gi s thu c tn v a ch ca nhng ngi nhp
c khc m h cng n t mt vng v trong cng mt khong thi gian
vi ngi tr li. Nhng ngi tr li c xc nh theo kiu , sau s
c phng vn v hi xc nh thm nhng ngi tr li khc cho ti
nghin cu. Qu trnh ny s tip tc cho n khi ngi nghin cu phng
vn c 70 ngi tr li.
V d B: ( ti ni trn)
Do hn hp v thi gian v kinh ph nn xut la chn 50% s mu
iu tra hin trng x Giang in, vi vic s dng phng php ly mu
ngu nhin c h thng. Da vo cc cng thc v ln mu (n<30, hay
n > 30).
V d C: ( ti ni trn)
S la chn cc trng s c tin hnh cn bn thng qua
phng php ly mu theo ch tiu. Cc trng s c la chn da trn
c s s gn st v a l vi ngi nghin cu. Ngi nghin cu s
chun b mt danh sch cc trng, xp theo th t t xa ti gn. Khi 4
trng ng tham gia vo nghin cu th vic thng lng vi cc
trng khc s dng li.
Tt c cc hc sinh nam lp 9 s lp thnh b mu nghin cu chun. Hy
vng rng, b mu ny s khng vt qu 100 hc sinh.
13.10. PHN TCH S LIU
V mt tng qut, n m t chin lc m bn nh s dng phn
tch s liu (xem chng 15). Ch r s liu s c phn tch bng cch
thng thng hay l bng my tnh. i vi phn tch bng my tnh, xc
252
nh r chng trnh v cc th tc thng k m bn d kin thc hin trn

s liu. Cng cn xc nh nhng bin i chnh thng qua cc bng biu.
p dng cho v d A:
Cc phn phi tn sut v mt (di dng):
Tui;
Hc vn;
Ngh nghip;
S con;
Khong thi gian nhp c;
V.v...
Cc bng biu: Tc ng ln mi trng ti nguyn v pht trin
bn vng;
Xi mn, bc mu, laterite, Thoi ho t;
Din tch rng b mt do s lng v tnh cch sinh hot ca cc
ngun nhp c;
Nc mt b nhim v gim dung tch. Mc nc ngm h xung;
a dng sinh hc b gim, nhiu sinh vt qu him b tuyt chng;
L qut xy ra (s ln trong nm);
V.v...
p dng cho v d B:
Cc phn phi tn sut v mt:
H sinh thi bin do thnh lp khu DLST;
Bin ng mi trng x hi;
T l dn chng a phng phn i vic thnh lp khu DLST;
253
Bin lng v ti nguyn sinh vt v a dng sinh hc;

Tnh trng ngun nc trong sui Giang in (ng Nai) v bin
ng ca n;
Khong thi gian du khch c th thm khu DLST ny;
Ti lng nhim ti a ca khu DLST;
Sc chu ti ti a ca h sinh thi ny;
V.v...
Cc bng: Thi i vi s bi thng ca dn chng khi n b
gii to lm khu DLST:
V din tch t nh di chuyn v n b khi c d n khu DLST;
Din tch vn, ao;
Bin ng x hi, ngh nghip;
V.v...
Cc phng php thng k c ng dng:
Phng php Chi square;
Phng php phn tch hi quy;
MSTAT, ECXEL,
V.v...
V d C:
Cc phn phi tn sut v mt:
Tui sinh vin;
iu kin mi trng t nhin lp hc v quanh lp hc;
Trnh hc vn sinh vin;
Nguyn vng ngh nghip ca hc sinh;
254
S hiu bit v v sinh mi trng ca hc sinh c nghin cu;

Hnh vi ng x vi mi trng lp hc;
nh hng ca nhm hc sinh cng la n thi hnh vi mi
trng;
Lng thi gian s dng cho nghin cu;
V.v...
Cc bng biu: iu tra mi trng trng ph thng:
S nh hng ca nhm hc sinh cng tui n thi v quan
nim bo v mi trng lp hc;
S gn b ca hc sinh vi v sinh lp hc;
Lng t trng trong khi x rc hay nh by;
Nguyn vng hc sinh vi mn hc mi trng (lng ghp hay
mn ring);
Thi i vi mn hc mi trng;
V.v...
13.11. CU TRC CA BO CO
Phn ny trnh by d nh ca bn s t chc bo co kt thc nh
th no, cng r rng cng tt (xem chng 17). Trong khi t chc cc ti
liu cho bo co, cn thy c rng s tr gip ca cc ti liu ny l v
cng to ln i vi nhng mc ch c th ca nghin cu. Xy dng k
hoch trin khai cc chng xung quanh ch chnh ca nghin cu. Tiu
ca mi chng cn thng tin mt cch r rng nhng ni dung chnh
ca chng .
Chng u tin, tiu c th l Li gii thiu, m qua , bn
gii thiu tng quan v nghin cu, bao gm ton b xut ca bn v ch
ra nhng s chch hng (nu c) so vi k hoch ban u.
255
Chng th hai cung cp mt s thng tin v xung quanh ti nghin

cu. V d nh cc c im v Di dn t do v tc ng ca n ln mi
trng kinh t x hi. Mc ch chnh ca chng ny l cho ngi c
thy c mt s nn tng ban u t cc thng tin m bn thu thp c. Do
vy, chng th hai ny tiu c th l Cc c im dn c t do i vi ti
nguyn mi trng trong vng Ty Nguyn hoc cc tiu khc m thng
tin ti ngi c ch ny. Cc tiu cho cc chng cn li s thay i tu
vo nhng nghin cu khc nhau, nhng cn ch , cc chng c vit ra
phi bm st vo ch chnh. Cho d cu ch ca cc tiu chng l mt
s la chn c o, nhng chng bt buc phi thng tin c ch chnh
ca chng . Trong khi trin khai cc ch th cc mc tiu c th ca
nghin cu phi lun c gi v tr hng u trong suy ngh ca bn.
V d A:
- Mc lc:
Chng 1: M u. Gii thiu, mc ch, phng php nghin cu.
i tng, phm vi nghin cu
Chng 2: Tng quan nghin cu trong v ngoai nc v Di dn v
mi trng ti nguyn
Chng 2: Cc c im nhn khu hc kinh t x hi ca khu
vc nghin cu. (c Lk hay c Nng)
Chng 3: Cc tc ng di dn t do ln ti nguyn rng v a dng
sinh hc.
Chng 4: Nhng tc ng di dn t do ln ti nguyn mi trng t.
Chng 5: Tc ng di dn t do ln nc mt, nc ngm.
Chng 6: Tc ng di dn t do ln thi ca dn chng a phng.
Chng 7: kt lun v kin ngh.
- Ti liu tham kho
- Ph lc
256
V d B:
Bo co s c phn thnh cc chng nh sau:
Chng 1: M u. Gii thiu, mc ch, phng php nghin cu,
i tng, phm vi nghin cu
Chng 2: S lc lch s vn nghin cu v DLST (Tng quan
nhng kt qun nghin cu v DLST)
Chng 3: Hin trng h sinh thi mi trng khu nghin cu (Giang
in, tnh ng Nai)
Chng 4: Nhng nguyn tc xy dng khu DLST cho Giang in,
tnh ng Nai
Chng 5: Phng thc xy dng cc m hnh DLST cho Giang
in, tnh ng Nai
Chng 6: Gii thiu tng m hnh DLST v vai tr ca n.
Chng 7: nh gi kinh t sinh thi cc phng thc quy hoch v
m hnh DLST.
Chng 7: Kt lun v kin ngh.
Ti liu tham kho
Ph lc
V d C:
Bo co s bao gm cc chng sau:
Chng 1: M u. Gii thiu, mc ch, phng php nghin cu,
i tng, phm vi nghin cu.
Chng 2: Tng quan v vn nghin cu mi trng trong trng
hc (trong, ngoi nc, cc ch trng, ngh nh xy dng mi trng
trng hc).
257
Chng 3: iu tra cc ch tiu mi trng trong trng ph thng.

( c ca Vit Nam v th gii).
Chng 4: Bnh mi trng trong trng.
Chng 5: Lng ghp hay mn hc mi trng ring trong trng cp 2, 3.
Chng 6: Thi , hnh vi ng x mi trng ca gio vin, hc sinh.
Chng 7: Tm tt, kt lun v kin ngh.
Ti liu tham kho
Ph lc
13.12. NHNG KH KHN V HN CH
Phn ny lit k cc kh khn m bn cho l s c th phi ng u,
v d, s thay i ca s liu, giy php an ton t pha c quan/t chc
thc hin nghin cu, s thu thp mu, hay cc kha cnh khc ca ti.
Bn s khng c ngun ti liu phong ph v iu ny c th dn n
n thun l mt bi tp l thuyt, bn c th phi lm t hn nhng g
vch ra. Tuy nhin, iu quan trng l thy c v truyn t bt k s hn
ch no m c th nh hng n c s ca cc kt lun v s tng qut
ho. Cc kh khn v hn ch:
V kinh ph;
V ngun cung cp s liu;
V phng tin i li;
V thi gian;
V nhng vn b mt c quan hay b mt quc gia.
13.13. THI GIAN BIU LM VIC
Bn phi t thit lp cho mnh thi gian cn phi hon thnh nghin
cu trong mt khung thi gian chnh xc. Lit k cc bc hnh ng khc
nhau m bn cn phi thc hin v cho bit r ngy thng cn phi hon
258
thnh cc nhim v . Nn nh rng cn phi xem xt n khong thi

gian co dn trong trng hp qu trnh nghin cu khng c sun s nh
k hoch t ra. Bn nn v mt biu thi gian qua cc thng, ngy lm
g t khi bt u dn n kt thc nghin cu. Vic trin khai mt biu
thi gian c a ra d rt quan trng
13.14. PH LC
Ph lc l phn gn cng c nghin cu v mt danh sch cc ti liu
tham kho v gip cho bn hon thnh nghin cu nhng bi bo khng
dung lng a vo, nn n c a vo ph lc, d tra cu, tm
hiu v xc minh. N bao gm cng c nghin cu ca bn, v trc n c
th l mt danh mc cc mc tiu c th hnh nh, bng biu, phng php
phn tch m bn dng. Cng c th l nhng phiu cc cu hi nghin
cu v/hoc cc gi thuyt.
Da vo mi cu hi m xc nh cc ph lc cn thit a ra cu
tr li. Ph lc cng gii thiu cc nghin cu cung cp cc thng tin. iu
ny s m bo s gim st ca ngi c, ngi phn bin
TM TT
Mt xut nghin cu m t chi tit k hoch hnh ng nhm thu
c cc cu tr li cho cc cu hi nghin cu. N phi cho ngi gim st
v nhng ngi khc thy c bn xut lm ci g, lp k hoch hnh
ng nh th no v ti sao li la chn chin lc . Do , n m bo
vi ngi c mt c s phng php lun vng chc thu c nhng
cu tr li ng n v khch quan.
Nguyn tc ch o ngay t u chng ny l ch cung cp mt b
khung m trong mt xut nghin cu c th c vit ra v gip
bn lm quen vi tnh hp l ca mt phng php lun v c cch vit
theo kiu hc thut. Cc ni dung ca xut nghin cu c sp xp
theo cc mc: M u/Li gii thiu, t vn , cc mc tiu nghin
cu, cc gi thuyt c kim tra, k hoch nghin cu, s thit lp, cc
259
th tc o c, ly mu, phn tch s liu, cu trc ca bo co v nhng

kh khn v hn ch.
Phn M u hay Li gii thiu gii thiu tng th v lnh vc
nghin cu. N c bt u bng vic tng hp ti liu mt cch bao
qut v sau th thu hp dn li ti vn c th m bn d nh iu
tra nghin cu. Mt b khung l thuyt cng nm trong phn ny. Nhng
ni dung phn k tip, phn t vn , m t chi tit vn c th
c nghin cu. Cc cu hi nghin cu m bn ang lp k hoch tr
li cng c nu ra phn ny. Phn Mc ch nghin cu bao gm
cc mc tiu chnh (lu di) v mc tiu ph (trc mt). Cc gi thuyt,
nu c, s c lit k trong phn c tiu Cc gi thuyt c kim
tra. Cc th tc hu cn m bn d nh tun theo c m t chi tit
trong phn K hoch nghin cu. Phn S thit lp bao gm s m
t t chc hoc hip hi m bn lp k hoch iu hnh nghin cu ca
mnh. Cc th tc thu c cc thng tin v s o c cc bin i
chnh c gii thch trong phn Phng php nghin cu. Bn s la
chn mu nh th no, iu ny s c m t trong phn Ly mu.
Cc th tc phn tch s liu c tho lun trong phn Phn tch s
liu. Nhng kh khn trong khi nghin cu c lng trc v nhng
hn ch ca k hoch ny c trnh by trong phn Nhng kh khn v
hn ch. Cch thit lp cu trc ca bo co c phc tho trong phn
Cu trc bo co.
Phn ph lc ca bn xut km theo mt bn copy cng c
nghin cu.
13.15. GII THIEU MOT E CNG THAM KHAO
Xin nhn mnh: y khng phi l nhng cng hon ho, m n
ch mang tnh tham kho m thi.
260
E CNG NGHIEN CU E TAI CAP NHA NC

(E TAI OC LAP)
e tai: ANH GIA TAI NGUYEN THIEN NHIEN

LU VC SONG ONG NAI
Phan 1.2. Tai nguyen at va qua trnh khai thac.
TIEP CAN MO HNH HOA

TRONG NGHIEN CU THAY OI
S DUNG AT VA XOI MON AT
TAI LU VC SONG ONG NAI
KHOA MOI TRNG TRNG I HC DN LP K THUT

THNH PH H CH MINH
261
AT VAN E
S thay oi cac kieu s dung at no co y ngha rat ln anh hng en xoi
mon at, en viec chuyen bien kh hau, nh trong mot bao cao gan ay ve s
thay oi lp phu thc vat toan cau cua hai chng trnh nghien cu mang ten
Chng trnh a quyen va sinh quyen quoc te (International GeosphereBiosphere Programme, IGBP) va Chng trnh ve tac ong cua con ngi
trong s bien oi moi trng toan cau (Human Dimensions of Global
Environmental Change Programme, HDP) (1993). Cac ong lc cua s bien oi
trong cac he thong s dung at c phan loai thanh cac nhom bien so nh sau:
(1) nhom bien so anh hng len nhu cau va tac ong len at ai, ngha la dan so
va s gia tang dan so, (2) nhom bien so kiem soat cng o khai thac tai nguyen
at ai thong qua ky thuat va cong nghe, (3) nhom bien so lien quan en viec
tiep can va kiem soat tai nguyen at (cac chnh sach), (4) cac bien so chi phoi
en ong lc cua nhng quyet nh ca nhan (thai o, hanh vi) (Huggett., 1993).
Lu vc song ong Nai la mot lu vc song ln co tiem nang phat trien
a dang va phong phu, lai hau nh nam tron trong lanh tho nc ta. Trong
nhng nam qua, s mat rng va thay oi cac kieu s dung at trong lu vc a
anh hng rat ln en tai nguyen at ai trong lu vc. Xoi mon at va boi
lang trong lu vc a anh hng khong nho en boi lang long ho Tr An nh
bao cao Ket qua o ac d bao boi lang long ho Tr An cua Vien Nghien
cu Khoa hoc Thuy Li Nam Bo (1996).
Trc thc trang tren, chung toi xin c e ngh nghien cu Tiep can
mo hnh hoa trong nghien cu thay oi s dung at va xoi mon at tai lu vc
song ong Nai.
MUC TIEU CUA NGHIEN CU
Vi muc tieu nghien cu la xay dng mo hnh nham anh gia s thay
oi cac kieu s dung at tai lu vc song ong Nai t nam 1990 en nam
262
2002; va d bao s bien thien cua cac kieu s dung at theo thi gian. T o,
anh gia anh hng s thay oi cac kieu s dung at en moi trng tai lu
vc. Do vay, muc tieu cua nghien cu c at ra nh sau:
1) anh gia s thay oi cua cac kieu s dung at tai lu vc ong Nai
trong khoang thi gian 1990 en 2002;
2) ng dung ky thuat GIS (The Geographic Information System) tnh
xoi mon at trong lu vc ong Nai tren c s phng trnh xoi mon USLE
(Universal Soil Loss Equation);
3) Nghien cu moi quan he gia s thay oi cac kieu s dung at va xoi
mon trong lu vc ong Nai, boi lang trong lu vc va thoai hoa at;
4) anh gia anh hng cua cac kieu s dung at tai lu vc ong Nai
trong khoang thi gian 1990 en 2002 en thoai hoa at, xoi mon va boi lang
trong lu vc.
KET QUA MONG I CUA NGIEN CU
Tren c s cua muc tieu tren, ket qua mong i trong nghien cu nay:
1) Ch ra cac kieu s dung at trong lu vc ong Nai t 1990 en
2002;
2) Mo hnh hoa ma tran s dung at, t o co the d oan s thay oi s
dung at trong tng lai;
3) Toi u hoa ve s dung at vung thng nguon song ong Nai;
4) Toi u hoa ke hoach phan phoi s dung at trong lu vc nham nang
cao chat lng cuoc song cua ngi dan;
5) Mo hnh hoa xoi mon at trong lu vc song ong Nai.
263
6) Ch ra moi tng tac gia moi trng at, moi trng nc va moi
trng rng (thc b) trong tng h sinh thai cua tng phu lu vc.
TONG QUAN VE NGHIEN CU

A. TNH HNH NGHIEN CU TREN THE GII
1. Quan ly lu vc
Cach tiep can co ien trong quan ly tai nguyen la ch tap trung quan ly
tng tai nguyen rieng le,, nh thuy san, rng va i song hoang da, hay quan
ly rieng le tng thanh phan cua moi trng, nh nc, khong kh hoac at ai.
Viec quan ly cac he sinh thai con b phan cach hn na tuy vao ngi s
dung. Quan ly lu vc c xem la cach tiep can hp ly hn e khai thac va
bao ve tai nguyen. Brooks et al (1992) nh ngha Quan ly lu vc nh la
mot tien trnh hng dan, to chc s dung at va nhng tai nguyen khac e
cung cap tot nhng yeu cau va phuc vu ma khong anh hng en tai nguyen
at va nc. Quan ly lu vc cung c nh ngha nh la qua trnh toi u hoa
s dung tai nguyen trong lu vc, chang han nh toi a s cung cap nc, han
che toi a cac van e xoi mon va boi lang, lu lut va han han.
2. Tong quan ve van e mat rng
Theo cac so lieu do c quan Lng Nong cua Lien Hp Quoc cong bo
gan ay (FAO, 1993), nhp o mat rng trong vung nhiet i cua toan the
gii trong thi ky 1981-1990 a len ti 15,5 trieu ha moi nam va ty le mat
rng va ty le mat rng la 0,8%/nam. Tnh rieng cho rng ma nhiet i, con
so nay la 0,6%/nam. Tuy nhien khi xet cap o chi tiet hn, nhieu tac gia a
a ra nhng c tnh khac biet nhau (Monastersky, 1993). S khac biet nay
co lien quan en nhng tieu ch dung e nh ngha the nao la rng va the
nao la mat rng.
264
Rieng oi vi lu vc song La Nga (Lu vc nho cua lu vc ong

Nai), theo tai lieu cua S Nong nghiep va Phat trien nong thon tnh ong Nai,
dien tch rng t nhien nam 1990 la 169.830 ha (28,96%), nam 1995 la
130.576 ha (22,27%), nam 2000 la 128.438 ha (21,9%), trong khi o do ap lc
ve dan so dien tch at nong nghiep luon gia tang trong nhng nam qua, nam
1990 khoang 226.720 ha (38,66%), nam 1995 khoang 291.381 ha (49,68%),
nam 2000 khoang 302.845 ha (51.64%). S thay oi cac kieu s dung at
trong lu vc thi gian qua a anh hng khong nho en xoi mon at trong lu
vc, va at biet anh en tien trnh boi lang long ho Tr An nh mot so nghien
cu gan ay cua Vien Nghien cu Khoa hoc Thuy Li Nam Bo.
3. Tien trnh xoi mon at
Bennet (1955), Baver (1965), Steven et. al (1986) va Troeh et. al (1999)
a nh ngha xoi mon at la hien tng di chuyen at bi nc ma, bi gio
di tac ong cua trong lc len be mat cua at. Xoi mon at c xem nh la
mot ham so vi bien so la loai at, o doc a hnh, mat o che phu cua tham
thc vat, lng ma va cng o ma. Qua trnh xoi mon gom 3 giai oan sau:
Giai oan 1: Tach cac hat at;
Giai oan 2: Giai oan van chuyen;
Giai oan 3: Giai oan lang ong.
Bang cac th nghiem trong phong Ellision (1944) thay rang cac loai at
khac nhau co bieu hien khac nhau trong cac giai oan nay. Th du, cac hat cac
nho b tach ra de hn nhieu so vi cac hat at bun, song hat bun de van
chuyen hn cac hat cat. Viec nghien cu qua trnh xoi mon co the c chia
thanh 2 van e: xoi mon bieu hien ra sao cac dang ma khac nhau va xoi
mon xay ra nh the nao tren cac loai at khac nhau. V vay, xoi mon phu
thuoc vao to hp 2 nhan to: cng o ma va kha nang cua at chong lai tac
265
ong cua ma. Tom lai, xoi mon at la ham so tac ong xoi mon cua ma va
tnh xoi mon cua at.
Xoi mon = f (tnh xoi mon cua ma, tnh xoi mon cua at).
4. Phng trnh d bao xoi mon at USLE (The Universal Soil Loss
Equation)
Phng trnh d bao xoi mon (Wischmeier va Smith, 1965, 1975 va
1978) hien ang c tha nhan va s dung rong rai tren the gii, co lch s
phat trien lau dai. ay la phng trnh toan hoc bieu th lng at xoi mon phu
thuoc vao cac yeu to ma (R), at (K), a hnh (LS), cay trong (C), va bien
phap s dung at (P). Phng trnh trnh nh sau:
A = RKCPSL
Trong o: A: d oan lng at xoi mon (tons/ acre);
R: nhan to ma (ft-ton/acre-in);
K: nhan to at;
LS: a hnh;
C: cay trong;
P: bien phap s dung at.
5. Moi quan he gia cac hnh thc s dung at, thuy van va boi lang
long ho
Glymph va Flaxman (1975) a thu thap so lieu boi lang tai cac lu vc
My, va a ch ra c moi quan he gia lng boi lang long ho va lu lng
dong chay theo mo hnh nh sau:
Y = a* Xm
266
Trong o:
Y = lng boi lang long ho (mg/l);
X = lu lng dong chay (cfs);
a = hang so;
m = tham so.
e co the ng dung oi vi nhng lu vc ln, Dune va Dietrich (1982)
a e ngh them vao tham so s dung at va yeu to a hnh, mo hnh tr
thanh:
Sy = U * Qa * Sb
Trong o:
Sy = lng boi lang long ho hang nam (tons/km2/yr)
Q = lu lng dong chay hang nam (mm)
S = yeu to a hnh
U = hnh thc s dung at trong lu vc
Dune va Dietrich (1982) a s dung phng phap phan tch hoi quy a bien
cho cac kieu s dung at, va mo hnh a tm c nh sau:
(1) Dien tch at rng khong thay oi xao tron (n = 4)
Sy = 2.67 * Q0.38
R2 = 0.98
(2) at lam nghiep ln hn at nong nghiep (n = 8)
Sy = 0.10 * Q1.28 * S0.47
R2 = 0.76
267
(3) at lam nghiep nho hn at nong nghiep ( n = 28)

Sy = 0.14 * Q1.48 * S0.51
R2 = 0.74
(4) at oi khong co rng (n = 5)
Sy = 4.26 * Q2.17 * S1.14
R2 = 0.87
Tac gia a ly luan s gia tang so mu cua Q va S trong cac mo hnh tren
ch ra rang o che phu cua cac tham thc vat b thu hep va no a anh hng
en s gia tang lu lng dong chay va yeu a hnh.
Tren c s d lieu quan sat boi lang tai cac ho cha vung ong Bac
Thailand, Tangtham va Lorsirirat (1993) a tm c phng trnh ve moi
quan he anh hng gia cac hnh thc s dung at trong lu vc, a hnh en
boi lang long ho nh sau:
lnY = -2.1028 + 1.5598 lnX1 0.0054 X2 0.0291X3 + 0.0072X4 8.3696X5 +
0.6890X6 6.2545X7 - 0.0203X8 0.0084X9
vi:
Y = lng boi lang long ho hang nam (106 m3)

X1 = lu lng dong chay hang nam (Q) (106 m3)
X2 = lng ma trung bnh hang nam (mm)
X3 = o che phu cua rng trong lu vc(%)
X4 = dien tch lu vc (km2 )
X5 = ty le chieu dai dong song (l/L)
X6 = ty le a hnh cua lu vc (H/L)
X7 = he so o chat at
X8 = dien tch be mat nc (km2)
X9 = Dung lng ho (106 m3)
268
Cung trong nghien cu nay, theo tac gia trong so cac yeu to a mao hoc
lien quan en chc nang cua lu vc a s dung, ch co 3 tham so c chon
nh la nhng nhan to co y ngha e d oan boi lang long ho, o la lu lng
dong chay Q (MCM), dien tch lu vc DA (km2), ty le a hnh lu vc
(Sr,%).
Phng trnh d oan boi lang long ho nhan c la:
RS = e(-11.1354 + 2.8515lnQ - 0.0045DA - 0.7229Sr)
Theo cac nghien cu gan ay cua Parker va Osterkemp (1995) ve lng
boi lang cua 24 ho tai My, dien tch cua cac lu vc o dao ong trong khoang
t 1,6 x 103 en 1,8 x 103 km2. Lng phu sa trung bnh hang nam 1480
tan/km2/nam. Phan tch hoi quy tuyen tnh va phi tuyen tnh gia lng phu sa
trung bnh hang nam va dien tch lu vc ch ra rang moi quan he nay khong co
y ngha ve mat thong ke.
Denby and Bolton (1976) a s dung so lieu quan sat s boi lang long
ho trong 800 lu vc tai My. Dien tch lu vc bien thien t 2,9 x 104 en 7,1
x 104 km2, lu lng dong chay trung bnh 330 mm/nam, lng phu sa boi
lang khoang 56 695 tan/km2/nam.
Ibanez et.al (1996) a tm ra rang trc khi thanh lap cac ho cha tai ha
lu song Ebro vao cuoi thap nien 1960, lng boi lang a c c lng
khoang 108 tan/nam. Sau khi ap ap th lng boi lang a c han che
khoang 0.3 x 106 tan/nam.
TNH HNH NGHIEN CU TRONG NC
1. Cac nhan to anh hng en qua trnh xoi mon va hnh thanh lu
Vai tro cua rng trong viec bao ve va cai tao moi trng song a tr
thanh van e thi s loi cuon s quan tam cua toan the loai ngi. Rng
269
gay anh hng tong hp en moi trng ben ngoai va moi trng ben
trong (tieu kh hau rng). Nghien cu anh hng cua rng en moi
trng khong ch co y ngha ly luan ma con co y ngha thc tien to ln
trong viec bao ve va s dung hp ly nguon tai nguyen, at biet la tai
nguyen at va nc; gay trong cac loai rng phong ho lam tang them y
ngha sinh thai canh quan, van hoa xa hoi cua rng. Quan he gia cay,
at va nc la moi quan he rat phc tap. Lng nc ma ri xuong mot
khu vc, neu nh khong co lp tham thc vat che phu th xung lc va gia
toc cua hat ma se tao ra sc ban pha c gii pha huy ket cau lp at
mat, dan ti s xoi mon va ra troi chat dinh dng cua at. nhng ni
lng ma cao, a hnh doc, dong chay mat thng tap trung va rat
manh, co the gay ra lu va lu quet.
Trong nhng ieu kien tot nhat (co tham cay to va cay bui che phu mat
at), toan bo nc se ngam vao at va se khong co nc chay be mat. Trong
nhng ieu kien xau nhat (at trong tr troi, khong co lp phu thc vat che
phu), hau het lng ma se chay tren mat ti cac khe suoi lam tang nh cao
cua dong chay, tao nen lu lut cac vung trung lu va ha lu. Nc chay co the
cuon theo at (xoi mon be mat) hoac co the chay thanh dong tao ra nhng
ranh va gay ra xoi mon rat ln.
Nh vay, tham thc vat co tac dung rat ln trong viec ieu tiet nc ma, han
che sc cong pha mat at cua giot ma, giam nhe dong chay mat ca ve toc o lan
khoi lng. Tac dung quan trong nhat la lam tang lng tch luy nc ngam e cung
cap nc cho mua kho nen giam bt c dong chay mat, do o ma han che c
xoi mon va lu.
2. Quan he gia xoi mon at va dong chay mat vi lng ma va
cng o ma
Cac ly thuyet va quan trac thc te cho rang ai lng xoi mon at va
dong chay mat phu thuoc rat ln vao lng ma va cng o ma. S phu
thuoc nay trong trng hp tong quat rat phc tap nhng co the s dung kinh
270
nghiem e n gian hoa bai toan va chon c cac at trng thch hp cho
viec xac nh moi tng quan nh lng gia xoi mon at va dong chay vi
ai lng ma. nc ta, khi nghien cu thuy van rng Nui Tien (Hu
Lung), Bui Nganh va Nguyen Danh Mo (1977) va mot so tac gia khac a thiet
lap moi quan he nay nhng ch dng lai viec mo ta nh tnh.
Nguyen Ngoc Lung va Vo ai Hai (1997) tren c s day so lieu thu
c tai tram nghien cu thuy van rng S Pai (Kong Ha Nng) a tnh toan
c cac at trng thong ke va phng trnh hoi quy xac nh tng quan gia
xoi mon at va dong chay be mat vi lng ma va cng o ma. Ket qua
tnh toan cho thay: gia ai lng xoi mon at va dong chay mat co moi quan
he kha chat che vi lng ma va cng o ma.
3. Anh hng cua tham thc vat
Thc nghiem cho thay: trong cung mot ieu kien nh nhau ve at ai,
tieu kh hau va a hnh, lng nc tao thanh dong chay mat va xoi mon
at phu thuoc rat ln vao ac iem cau truc cua tham thc vat. So lieu nghien
cu cua Nguyen Quang My (1984) Tay Nguyen cho thay o che phu cua
tham cay trong co anh hng rat ln ti o van uc cua dong chay, tham cay
trong co o che phu yeu th nong o am ac cua dong chay chiem ty le cao
hn. Nh vay, o che phu co anh hng rat ln ti xoi mon at va dong chay
mat. Trong muc tieu phat trien lam nghiep giai oan 1996-2010 (e an ong
ca rng t nhien) phai nang o che phu cua rng hien nay la 28% len 43% so
vi tong dien tch at t nhien cua ca nc.
Viet Nam, ket qua nghien cu cua Nguyen Quang My trong chng
trnh nghien cu Tay Nguyen II a cho thay tren cung o doc t 0 3o va cac
yeu to kh hau, hng sn, tho nhng, kha nang chong xoi mon at cua
cac loai cay cong nghiep nh: au, ngo, khoai lang, ca phe, cung rat khac
nhau.
271
Tom lai, vi ieu kien kh hau, at ai thuan li nc ta co nhieu kha

nang phat huy cao o nen san xuat nong lam nghiep nhiet i, xay dng nen
nong nghiep mien nui tien len hien ai, san xuat nhieu loai hang hoa. Tuy
nhien, kh hau nc ta ma nhieu, tap trung theo mua, san xuat mien nui lai
tien hanh ai bo phan tren at doc, nan xoi mon at rat nghiem trong. ay la
mot kho khan lau dai mi co the khac phuc c. Tnh trang phat nng lam
ray, du canh, du c cua ong bao cac dan toc van con nhieu, tnh trang khai
hoang ba bai, chat pha rng au nguon va di dan t do ngay mot gia tang.
Tat ca nhng tnh trang o la nguyen nhan dan ti xoi mon va lu lut rat
nghiem trong, anh hng ln ti s phat trien kinh te van hoa mien nui noi
rieng va nc ta noi chung.
VAT LIEU NGHIEN CU
Ban o s dung at lu vc lu vc song ong Nai, so lieu thong ke ve
kinh te xa hoi trong lu vc, may vi tnh, cac phan mem ve GIS nh Arcview
GIS, ArcInfo, Stagraphics Plus 3.0 se c s dung trong nghien cu.
NOI DUNG NGHIEN CU
Tren c s cua muc tieu tren, noi dung nghien cu nay:
1) Tm hieu cac kieu s dung at trong lu vc ong Nai t 1990 en nay;
dung at trong tng lai;
3) Toi u hoa ve s dung at vung thng nguon song ong Nai;
cao chat lng cuoc song cua ngi dan;
5) Tm hieu qua trnh xoi mon va mo hnh hoa xoi mon at trong lu
vc song ong Nai.
272
6) Nghien cu moi tng tac gia moi trng at, moi trng nc va
moi trng rng(thc b) trong tng he sinh thai cua tng lu vc phu.
T muc tieu cua nghien cu, cau hoi nghien cu c at ra nh sau:
Bang cach nao han che c xoi mon, thoai hoa at trong lu vc va boi
lang trong lu vc? Bang cach nao nang cao c cuoc song cua ngi dan
trong lu vc? e tra li cac cau hoi nay chung toi can lam ro cac van e sau:
1) Mo ta hien trang s dung at tai lu vc va nhng nguyen tac trong
bao ve chong xoi mon vung thng nguon lu vc;
2) Thiet lap ma tran s dung at, e anh gia chuyen bien moi trng
trong lu vc;
Tac
ong
con
ngi
3) Moi quan he gia cac kieu s dung at va xoi mon at trong lu vc;
4) Thiet lap cac mo hnh quan he gia cac kieu s dung at va cuoc
song cua ngi dan trong lu vc, t o toi u hoa ke hoach phan phoi s
dung at;
PHNG PHAP NGHIEN CU
1- Phng phap luan
Van e moi trng at la ket qua cua nhng tac ong t nhien, con
ngi len moi trng at ma cu the la nhng yeu to t nhien: kh hau kh
tng, a hnh a mao, a chat, thong nhng, thuy van, a chat thuy van,
thc vat t nhien. Lu vc ho Tr An, thoai hoa at ang dien ra manh me ma
qua trnh xoi mon ra troi la the hien chnh cua qua trnh nay.
Tng quan gia van e moi trng at va cac yeu to moi trng
Phng trnh mat at pho dung (Wischmeier va Smith, 1978):
A = R x K x LS x C x P dung trong anh gia xoi mon. Trong o,
273
Tac
ong
t
nhien
Thuy van
a chat
thuy van
<TBODY>A Lng mat at trung bnh tren mot n v dien tch trong
nam. Trong phng trnh tren, n v A phu thuoc xac nh n v bieu dien K,
R. Tren thc te tnh toan n v A tnh: tan/ha
R He so ma/chay tran, la he so anh gia nang lng ma va dong
chay tran.
K He so xoi mon at - ty le mat at tren mot n v dien tch oi vi
dien tch ac biet co chieu dai sn 72,6 feet (22,1 met) va nghieng eu vi o
doc 9% (5o).
L He so chieu dai sn, la ty le mat at cua sn thc te so vi sn dai
72,6 feet (22,1 met) va nghieng eu vi o doc 9% (5o).
S He so o doc la ty le lng at mat mot o doc thc te so vi sn
co o doc 9% (5o).
C He so lp phu la ty le lng at mat cua mot dien tch tren thc te vi
dien tch trong ieu kien xac nh va dong chay lien tuc. C = 1 khi at tr troi.
P He so canh tac hay he so cach lam at la ty le lng at mat t thc
te vi lng at mat vi cach lam at thch hp.
anh gia xoi mon thoai hoa at tren lu vc ln can phai ket hp
phng phap GIS va RS.
2- Phng phap cu the
Tong hp tai lieu:
Nguyen nhan xay ra xoi mon la mot ham cua nhieu yeu to khac nhau.
o la cac yeu to t nhien va cac yeu to nhan sinh. Do o, viec thu thap cac tai
lieu lien quan en khu vc nghien cu la can thiet. Cac tai lieu o la:
274
Tai lieu ve ieu kien t nhien: a chat, a mao, thuy van, lp phu
thc vat, tai nguyen at;
ieu kien kinh te, xa hoi;
Hien trang ky thuat canh tac.
X ly tong hp cac tai lieu thu thap theo cac muc tieu e ra.
He thong thong tin a ly (GIS) va vien tham (RS): (chu ao)
Thch hp nhat cho anh gia xoi mon noi rieng va nhng bien oi moi
trng noi chung tren dien tch ln, kho tiep bang nhng phng phap co ien,
trong nghien cu nay la lu vc song ong Nai la s dung cong cu He thong
tin a ly va vien tham ket hp vi nhng thiet b hien ai. e anh gia xoi
mon hien nay cac nha khoa hoc chu yeu s dung phng trnh mat at pho
dung tren (ngoai ra con phng phap phong xa). Co c nhng so hang trong
phng trnh tren cac nha khoa hoc phai ieu tra, quan trac va thc nghiem.
Cac lam nay khong the thc hien tren lu vc ln nh lu vc ho Tr An. GIS
va RS cho phep xac nh cac so hang trong phng trnh mat at tren va ngay
cang chnh xac.
Phng phap GIS:
Thanh lap c s d lieu GIS ve a hnh, at, ma, thc vat, Cac lp
thong tin nay c so hoa t ban o ty le 1/250.000.
Xay d mo hnh DEM.
Xay dng cac lp thong tin ve he so ma, at, chieu dai sn, o doc,
thc vat,
Xay dng ban o xoi mon.
Phng phap Vien tham:
275
S dung anh ve tinh lu vc song ong Nai chup nam 2002 co o

phan giai 30x30m e anh gia tham thc vat, hien trang rng va tnh
toan he so thc vat.
Mot so phan mem c s dung e tnh toan:
Xay dng c s d lieu GIS, thanh lap ban o: PC ARC/INFO 3.5,
MapInfo 6.0;
Noi suy DEM: Surfer 7.0;
X ly anh vien tham va tnh toan xoi mon: Idrisi 3.2;
X ly d lieu bang bieu: Excel 7.0.
e thc hien viec tnh toan xoi mon, trc het phai thanh lap cac ban o
thanh phan tng ng vi cac he so trong phng trnh mat at pho dung, bao
gom: ban o o doc, ban o hng sn, ban o chieu dai sn, ban o he so
hnh thai, ban o he so lp phu, ban o he so at, ban o he so ma. Tham
khao cac ban o nay trong phan phu luc anh.
Khao sat, o ac va quan trac (kiem nghiem ket qua tnh toanh xoi mon
bang GIS va RS)
- Khao sat thc a
ay la phng phap truyen thong va co tam quan trong oi vi viec
nghien cu xoi mon va thoai hoa at trong lu vc. Tien hanh khao sat cac lo
trnh theo cac tuyen cat qua cac dang a hnh, cac kieu at a khac nhau; tien
hanh mo ta cac ac iem.
- Quan trac xoi mon bang phng phap cau xoi mon:
Cau xoi mon, la mot dung cu quan trac xoi mon tng oi hoan chnh va
co o tin cay cao, phng phap nay do Rosy Wash (1993) e xuat, va ng
dung. Phng phap o cac iem theo dang tuyen (line). So lieu o gia cac
276
lan c ghi lai va tnh c o hao hut gia cac lan o. Vi chu k o la mot
thang, mot thang ri. Moi lan o, mo ta theo s bien oi cua thc vat: o che
phu, mat o cay, mo ta s phat trien cua thc vat; mo ta loai giong cay trong
va bien phap canh tac hien tai.
ac iem cua phng phap la quan trac cac iem dang tuyen (1
chieu). So iem quan trac nhieu, ket qua mang lai co o tin cay cao hn so vi
quan trac tai mot hoac t iem hn. Ket qua quan trac ch tnh theo mot ng,
khong the hien cho mot mat phang. e cho ket qua s xoi mon, phai dung
phng phap phong mo hnh toan hoc tnh cho mot mat phang.
- Quan trac thuy van
ap thuy van:
Dung e khong che dong chay theo mot tiet dien nhat nh; ket hp vi
o lu toc cua dong chay tai cac o cao mc nc khac nhau, do may ghi mc
nc t ong ghi lai c. ap thuy van c thiet ke tai ca ra cua lu vc
(outlet), co dang ch V vi goc 120o.
May ghi mc nc: thiet b t ong, co c che hoat ong giong nh may
ghi cng o ma. May c at tai ap thuy van, pha tren cua ap. Bo phan
t ghi dien tien mc nc la ong trong quay. Trong quay nay noi lien vi cac
banh lan. Mot si cc nho co gan phao noi tren mat nc at len banh lan.
Chu k quay cua trong bang chu k thay giay la 24 gi.
Mau nc: phan tch khoi lng chat ran tong cong.
- May ghi ma: t ong c at tai tram quan trac thuy van, t ghi
lng ma. Tng phan ma ke tiep nhau c cong lai, ghi len mot bang giay
kep chat vao trong quay, chu ky thay bang giay la 24 gi.
Cach tnh xoi mon:
277
Ket hp gia chat ran tong cong va lu lng cua dong chay, tnh c
khoi lng tram tch thoat khoi lu vc, cho ta biet khoi lng at b cuon troi
sau moi chu ky quan trac.
Ket hp gia so lieu quan trac cng o ma va khoi lng tram tch
thoat khoi lu vc co moi tng quan gia chung.
Ket hp gia so lieu quan trac cau xoi mon, va tai lieu quan trac o
ma ta cung co c moi lien he gia lng ma va s xoi mon trong khu vc.
I. Phng phap nghien cu trien khai chung:
S dung nhieu phng phap tong hp.
1) Thu thap va phan tch d lieu cua cac nghien cu trc ay (chu yeu
la Vien Quy hoach va thiet ke nong nghiep)
2) GIS va Vien tham
3) ieu tra thc a bo sung sau khi tong hp phan tch t lieu con
nhng iem noi com, nghi van.
4) Phng phap phong van cong ong. Phat phieu ieu tra (n>150) theo
mau phu hp muc ch tm hieu.
5) Phng phap chuyen gia. Hoi thao (4 lan), hoi y va gap g: thng
xuyen.
6) Phng phap ma tran.
7) Phng phap tnh toan Kinh te sinh thai moi trng
II- Phng phap nghien cu chi tiet
Trong khuon kho cua nghien cu, chung toi se tien hanh cac bc sau
ay:
278
1) Xac nh s thay oi cac kieu s dung at da tren c s cua mo hnh

Markov Chain. Mo hnh Markov Chain a c ng dung e xac nh kha
nang thay oi cac kieu s dung at da tren s tien trien cac kieu s dung at
va cac nhan to anh hng en s thay oi. Tong quat hoa cua mo hnh c
minh hoa nh sau:
Cac kieu s dung at thi iem to Cac kieu s dung at thi iem t1
(1)Lam
(1)Lam nghiep
11
nghiep
12
13
(2)Non g
(2)Non g nghiep
51
14
15
(3)o th
52
nghiep
(4)at tron g
(3)o th
(5)at chuyen dun g

53
(4)at tron g
54
(5)at chuyen
dun g
55
Vi ij : la xac suat thay oi c xac nh t viec Overlay ban o s

dung at tai hai thi iem khac nhau. e d oan phan bo cac kieu s dung at
khac nhau vao cac thi iem tiep theo co the ng dung mo hnh Markov Chain.
T le cac kieu
s dung at
thi iem
th nhat
Ma tran ve
xac suat cua s
thay oi cac kieu
s dung at
T le cac
kieu s dung
at thi
iem th hai
279
ay co the c viet lai di dang tong quat hoa cua ma tran:

Mo hnh Makov Chain khong nhng nham phuc vu cho viec d oan
bien thien cua cac kieu s dung at trong lu vc, ma con nham anh gia s
chuyen bien gia cac kieu s dung at khac nhau trong lu vc.
11, 12, 13, . . . 15

21, 22, 23, . . . 25
[V1, V2, . . . , V5] *
= [V , V , . . . , V ]
. . . . . . . . . .
51, 52, 53, . . . 55
2) Mo hnh hoa ve s thay oi cac kieu s dung at tai lu vc song

ong Nai.
Nh a e cap tren, muc ch cua nghien cu la tiep can mo hnh ve
s thay oi cac kieu s dung at (LUCC) tai lu vc song ong Nai nham ng
dung mo hnh nay e d bao hng LUCC trong tng lai.
S thay oi cac kieu s dung at c xem nh la mot ham so do bi
nhng hoat ong cua con ngi trong lu vc. Ham so o c xac nh bi
s thay oi cac kieu s dung at va co the c mo hnh hoa bi mot phng
trnh toan hoc nh sau:
280
LUCC = f (s bien ong ve dan so, s tien bo cua khoa hoc ky thuat,
kinh te xa hoi trong lu vc, s nhan thc cua ngi dan, chnh sach xa hoi)
.Thuat ng Patch (P) c s dung nham ai dien cho s xuat hien cua cac
kieu s dung at, c mo ta nh sau:
P1 = at lam nghiep
P2 = at nong nghiep
P3 = Khu vc dan c
P4 = at cha s dung
P5 = at chuyen dung.
S thay oi ve s dung at cua moi Patch theo thi gian da tren c s
s tac ong gia s bien ong ve dan so, s tien bo cua khoa hoc ky thuat,
kinh te xa hoi trong lu vc, s nhan thc cua ngi dan trong lu vc va chnh
sach xa hoi.
Trong nghien cu nay, tai thi iem t1, dien tch cua moi mot Patch la
mot ham so vi bien la dien tch cua moi Pacth tai thi iem to vi he so ci,
co the c viet:
(AP1) t1 = c1 AP1(to)
(AP2) t1 = c2 AP2(to)
(AP3) t1 = c3 AP3(to)
(AP4) t1 = c4 AP4(to)
(AP5) t1 = c5 AP5(to)
Trong o:
c1, c2,. . . c5 : he so LUCC;
t = thi gian;
281
AP1, AP5: dien tch cua P1,... P5

Phng trnh (3) en (7), co the c tong quat hoa nh sau:
(APn) (t + 1) = cn APn (t)
Tai thi iem cac nam 1990, 1995 va 2000, dien tch cua lu vc co the
c viet nh sau:
1990: A (t1) = AP1 (t1) + AP2 (t1) + AP3 (t1) + AP4 (t1) + AP5 (t1)
A (t1) = A (t2) = A (t3) = tong dien tch cua khu vc nghien cu.
Trong nghien cu nay, khoang gia thi gian t0 va t1, s thay oi gia
cac Patch la mot ma tran c trnh bay trong Bang 1.
Bang 1. Ma tran ve thay oi cac kieu s dung at trong khoang thi gian
t0 en t1
t0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
P1
11
12
13
14
15
P2
21
22
23
24
25
P3
31
32
33
34
35
P4
41
42
43
44
45
P5
51
52
53
54
55
t1
S thay oi cua Patch P1 khoang gia thi gian to en t1, co the

c viet:
282
(AP1)t1 = c1AP1(to)
= AP1( to) 12AP1(to) 13AP1 (to) 14AP1 (to)
15AP1(to) + 21AP2 (to) + 31AP3 (to) + 41AP4 (to) + 51AP5 (to)
Tng t nh tren,s thay oi cua Patch P2, P3, P4, P5, khoang gia
thi gian to- t1, co the c viet:
(AP2)t1 = c2 AP2(to)
= AP2(to)) 21AP2(to) 23AP2 (to) 24AP2 (to) 25AP2(to) + 12AP1 (to) +
+ 32AP3 (to) + 42AP4 (to) + 52AP5 (to)
(AP3) t1= c3AP3(to)
= AP3( to) 31AP3(to) 32AP3 (to) 34AP3 (to) 35AP3(to) + 13AP1 (to) +
+ 23AP2 (to) + 43AP4 (to) + 53AP5 (to)
(AP4) t1 = c4AP4(to)
+ 24AP2 (to) + 34AP3 (to) + 54AP5 (to)
(AP5) t1= c5AP5(to)
+ 25AP2 (to)+ 35AP3 (to) + 45AP4 (to)
Vi
(APi)t1 = dien tch cua Patch Pi tai thi iem t1.
(AP1)to = dien tch cua Patch Pi tai thi iem to.
ci = he so thay oi cua Patch Pi
283
ij = he so thay oi cac kieu s dung at, ch ra kha nang thay oi t

Patch Pi en Patch Pj.
Cac phng trnh tren dau (+) ch s chuyen oi t Patch P2, P3, P4,
P5 en Patch P1, va dau (-) ch s chuyen oi t Patch P1 en Patch P2, P3,
P4, P5. Nhng phng trnh khac tng t dau (+) va dau (-) giai thch s
chuyen oi theo ij va APi.
3) ng dung ky thuat GIS e mo hnh hoa xoi mon at
Tren c s so lieu t ban o hien trang va a hnh trong khu vc nghien
cu, chungJ-1toi se tien hanh tnh toan cac nhan to anh hng en xoi mon at
trong lu vc, chang han nh t cac ng ong mc chung toi tien hanh xac
J
nh nhan to a hnh (LS), t ban o hien trang chung toi se xac nh (C),. . .
J+1
Xi
Xi+1
Xi+2
Tnh toan s van chuyen at theo phng trnh toan hoc sau:
A dj =
x i +1
D x dx
xi
Trong o:
Adj: lng at c van chuyen t Xi en Xi+1;
284
Dx: lng at do ma pha v ra tai iem x.
D TRU KINH PH
That la kho khi an nh kinh ph.
- Ve ty trong: e tai nhanh nay nen chiem 15% tong kinh ph
- Ve cac khoan:
a/ Mua tai lieu so lieu: 30%
b/ S dung chat xam: 20%
c/ Chay cac bai toan, phan mem 30%.
d/ ieu tra thc a bo sung: 20%
Cu the chi vao cac cong viec:
1) Tm hieu cac kieu s dung at trong lu vc ong Nai t 1990 en
nay; (va mua t lieu va nghien cu)
dung at trong tng lai; (nghien cu)
3) Toi u hoa ve s dung at vung thng nguon song ong Nai; (va
mua t lieu, mua ban o, va nghien cu)
cao chat lng cuoc song cua ngi dan; (va mua t lieu, mua ban o, va
phat phieu ieu tra,va nghien cu)
5) Tm hieu qua trnh xoi mon va mo hnh hoa xoi mon at trong lu
vc song ong Nai (va mua t lieu, mua ban o, va bo tr them th nghiem
nghien cu);
285
6) Nghien cu moi tng tac gia moi trng at, moi trng nc va
moi trng rng (thc b) trong tng he sinh thai cua tng lu vc phu (va
mua t lieu, mua ban o, va nghien cu);
7) Mo ta hien trang s dung at tai lu vc va nhng nguyen tac trong
bao ve chong xoi mon vung thng nguon lu vc (va mua t lieu, mua ban
o, va nghien cu);
8) Thiet lap ma tran s dung at, e anh gia chuyen bien moi trng
trong lu vc;
9) Moi quan he gia cac kieu s dung at va xoi mon at trong lu vc;
10) Thiet lap cac mo hnh quan he gia cac kieu s dung at va
cuoc song cua ngi dan trong lu vc, t o toi u hoa ke hoach phan
phoi s dung at;
NHNG VAT LIEU, CONG CU TOI THIEU

1) Ban o lu vc, ty le 1/250000 (co contour: chnh xac), phan
chia phu lu.
2) Ban o s dung at lu vc lu vc song ong Nai, ty le 1/250000.
3) Ban o thch nghi at ai lu vc lu vc song ong Nai, ty le
1/250000.
4) Ban o hien trang s dung at, lu vc lu vc song ong Nai ty le
1/250000.
5) Ban o tho nhng lu vc lu vc song ong Nai, ty le 1/250000.
6) Ban o khu cong nghiep vung kinh te trong iem lu vc lu vc
song ong Nai ty le 1/250000.
7) So lieu thong ke ve kinh te xa hoi trong lu vc,
286
8) May vi tnh 264,

9) Cac phan mem ve GIS nh MAPINPO, Arcview GIS, ArcInfo,
Stagraphics Plus 3.0 se c s dung trong nghien cu.
Chu y: Cac ban o nay la ban o lu vc c tach t ban o cung loai
cua mieng ong Nam Bo.
287
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO

Tai lieu tieng Viet
Cuc thong ke tnh ong Nai, 2000, Nien giam thong ke 1999, 190 trang.
Le Ngoc Bch, Ho Lng Tuy, Nguyen c Vng va ctv, 1998, Nghien
cu boi lang long ho Tr An, Tuyen tap ket qua Khoa hoc va Cong nghe phong
chong thien tai, chnh tr song, bao ve b bien, NXB Nong Nghiep.
Nguyen Trong Ha, 1996, Xac nh cac yeu to gay xoi mon va kha nang
d bao xoi mon tren at doc, Luan an pho tien s khoa hoc ky thuat, Trng
ai hoc Thuy Li, Ha Noi, 1996, 145 trang.
Nguyen Kim Li, 2002, Tiep can mo hnh hoa trong nghien cu thay oi
s dung at tai lu vc song ong Nai, Tap San Khoa hoc Ky thuat Nong Lam
nghiep, Trng ai hoc Nong Lam Thanh pho Ho Ch Minh, so 1/2002, NXB
Nong Nghiep, trang 34-40.
Nguyen Ngoc Lung Vo ai Hai, 1994, Ve kha nang chong xoi mon
cua cac dang tham thc vat, Tap ch Lam nghiep, so 5/1994, trang 8-9.
Nguyen Ngoc Lung Vo ai Hai, 1997, Ket qua bc au nghien cu
tac dung phong ho nguon nc cua mot so tham thc vat chnh va cac nguyen
tac xay dng rng phong ho nguon nc, Chng trnh 327, Cuc phat trien
Lam nghiep, NXB Nong Nghiep, 156 trang.
Nguyen Quang My, 1979, ac iem xoi mon ong - Nam Tay
Nguyen., Tap ch Hoat ong khoa hoc so 3/1979, trang 4-5.
Nguyen Quang My Quach Cao Yem Hoang Xuan C, 1984, Nghien
cu xoi mon va th nghiem mot so bien phap chong xoi mon at nong nghiep
Tay Nguyen, UBKHKTNN, Cac bao cao khoa hoc cua chng trnh ieu tra
tong hp vung Tay Nguyen 1976-1980, Ha Noi 1984, trang 263-279.
288
Bui Nganh va Nguyen Danh Mo. 1977. Nghien cu kha nang ieu tiet
dong chay gi nc, gi at cua rng th sinh hon loai la rong vi o tan che
0,3-0,4 va 0,7-0,8 H Lung-Lang Sn. Bao cao tong ket e tai NCKH. Vien
Lam Nghiep 1977, 44 trang.
Tai lieu tieng Anh

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geology, geographic zone, elevation, and vegetation type in Northern California

Wildlands, Jour, Geophys, Res., 66: 3351-8.
Anderson, H. W. 1954, Suspended Sediment discharge as related to
stremflow, topography, soil and land use, Amer, Geophys, Union Trans., 35:
268281.
_______., M. D. Hoover and K. G. Reinhart, 1976, Forest and Water:
Effects of Forest Management on flood, Sedimentation and Water supply,

Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experimental Station USDA For. Serv.
General Tech. Rep. PSW 18.
Applied Hydrology and Research Section, 1991, Summary of the Result
of Sediment Survey in the Reservoirs, Meteorology and Hydrology Division,

Survey and Ecology Department, Electricity Generating Authority of
Thailand.
Baver L. D. 1965, Soil Physics, Third Edition, Fifth Printing, John Wiley
and Sons, New York, 489p.
Bennett H. H., 1955, Elements of Soil Conservation, Second Edition,
McGraw Book Company, Inc. New York, 358p.
Boyce R., 1975, Sediment Routing with Sediment Delivery Ratio
Present and Prospective Technology for Predicting Sediment Yields and

289
Sources, Proc, of the Sediment Yield Workshop, USDA Sedimentation

Laboratory, Oxford, Mississippi, Nov, 28-30, 1972, ARS-USDA, pp. 61-73.
Brady N. C. 1990, The Natural and Properties of Soils, Macmillan
Publishing, Company, NewYork, 621p.
Brooks K. N., F. F. Peter, M. G. Hans, and L. T. John, 1992,
Hydrology and the Management of Watershed, Iowa State University

Press, Ames USA,392p.
Cai H. H., 1999, Community-based Natural Resource Management in Vietnam,
Report of the First Phase (submitted to IDRC).
Chunkao
K.,
1981,
Introduction
to
Watershed
Resources
Management in Humid Tropics. In Proceedings of Regional Training

Course
Watershed
Resources
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and
Environmental
Monitoring in Humid and Tropical Ecosystems, UNESCO, USAID,

MAB (USA), and NEB (Thailand) V-1-24.
________ ., 1986, Soil Erosion and Sediment Yield Predictions in
Practices for Watershed Management of ASEAN Countries. Paper for
Roving Seminar on Watershed Research and Management Practices on 13
August 5 September 1986, ASEAN US Watershed Project. 66p.
_______.,
N.
Tangtham
and
W.
Niyom,
1982, Estuarine
Hydrological Characteristics of Mangrove Forest in Ranong the Southern

Thailand, Paper for Presentation to NRCT JSPS Ratanakos in Bicentennial
Joint Seminar on Science and Mangrove Resources, Phuket, Thailand, 2-6
August 1982.
______ ., and P. Rakaniyatham, 1995, Land use and Land cover
Change, Case Study in Thailand.
290
Dendy, F. E., and G. C., Bolton, 1976, Sediment yield runoff

drainage area relationships in the United States, J. Soil and Water Cons.
31: 264 266p.
Dugan, G. L., and P. H., McGauhey, 1974, Enrichment of Surface
Waters, Water Pollution Control Federation 46 (10) 2261-80.
Dunne, G. L., and W., Dietrich, 1982. Sediment Sources in Tropical
Drainage Basin. n Soil Erosion and Conservation in the Tropics., Amer, Soc.
Agron., and Soil Sci. Soc. Amer., 677 South Segeo Road, Madison, WI 53711,
p. 41 55.
Ekern, P.C. 1950. Raindrop impact as the force initiating soil erosion.
Soil Sci. Soc. Amer., Proc. 15: 7-10.
Ellison, W.D.1947. Soil erosion studies: Soil detachment hazard by
raindrop splash.Agric. Eng. 28: 197-201.
Flaxaman, E.M. 1975. The use of suspended-sediment load
measurements and equations for evaluation of sediment yield in the west. In
Proceedings of Sediment-Yield Workshop, USDA Sedimentation Laboratory,
Oxford, Mississippi, Nov. 28-30, 1972, ARS-S-40 USDA June, 1975,
p. 46.
Free, G.R. 1960. Erosion characteristics of rainfall. Agricultural

Engineering, 41 (7) 447 449, 455p.
Glymph, L.M. 1975. Evolving Emphases in Sediment Yield prediction.
In Present and Prospective Technology for Predicting Sediment Yields and
Sources. ARS-5.40 Agr. Res. Serv., USDA, Washington, D.C., p. 1-4.
Holeman, J.N. 1968. The Sediment Yield of major rivers of the world.
Water Resources Res. 4 (4): 737-747.
291
_______. 1975. Procedures used in the soil conservation service to

estimate ediment yield. In Present and Prospective Technology for Predicting
Sediment Yields and Sources. ARS-5.40 Agr. Res. Serv., USDA, Washington,
D.C., p. 5-9.
Hudson, W.W.1965. The influence of rainfall on the mechanics of soil
erosion with particular reference to northern Rhodesia. M.S. thesis, Univ. of
Cape Town, South Africa.
Hudson, N. 1992. Soil Conservation. BT Batsford Limited Publishers.
London. 324p.
Huggett.R.J. 1993. Modelling the Human Impact on Nature: System
Analysis of Environmental Problems. Oxford Univ. Press. Oxford. 205p.
Ibanez,C., N. Prat, and C. Antoni.1996. Changes in the hydrology and
sediment transport produced by large dams on the lower Ebro river and its
estuary. Regulated Rivers: Research & Management.Volume 12,
Issue 1, 1996: Pages:51-62. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Available in
website:www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/abstract/21281/START.
Kinnell, P.I.A. 1973. The problem of assessing the erosive power
of rainfall from meteorological observations. Soil Sci. Soc. Amer. Proc.,
37: 617-621.
Kittredge, J. 1948. Forest Influences. McGraw-Hill, New York, 394p.
Mutchler, K.1967. Parameters for describing raindrop splash. J. Soil and
Water Cons., 22:91-94.
Nakano, K. 1978. An Ecological Study of Swidden Agriculture at a
village in Northern Thailand. South East Asian Studies, 16 (3): 288 292.
292
Newson, M.1995. Land, Water and development: River basin systems

and their sustainable management. Mathematical Composition Setters Ltd,
Salisbury, Wiltshire.351p.
Nguyen Kim Loi. 2002. Effect of Land Use/Land Cover Changes and
Practices on Sediment Contribution to The Tri An Reservoir of Dong Nai
Watershed, Vietnam. M.Sc. Thesis, Graduate School, Kasetsart University,
Bangkok, Thailand. 113p.
Parker, R.S., and W.R. Osterkamp 1995. Identifying trends in sediment
discharge from alterations in upstream land use. In effects of Scale on
Interpretation and Management of Sediment and Water quality, Proc. of a
Boulder Symposium, July 1995, ed. W.R. Osterkamp. IAHS Pub. No.226,
207-213.
Renfro, G.W. 1975. Use of Erosion Equations and Sediment Delivery
Ratios for Predicting Sediment Yields and Sources, Proc. of Sediment Yield
Workshop, USDA, Sediment Laboratory, Oxford, Mississippi: Nov. 28-30,
1972, ARS USDA, pp. 33-45.
Retzer, J.L. 1953. Soil-Vegetation Surveys of Wildlands. Jour. For., 51:
615 619.
Roose, E.J.,1977. Use of the universal soil erosion equation to predict
erosion in West Africa. In Soil Erosion: Prediction and Control. Soil Cons.
Soc. Am., Ankeny, Iowa, p.60-74.
Smith, D.D. and D.M. Whitt.1947. Estimating Soil Losses from field
areas of clay-pan soils. Soil Sci., Annex. Proc.,12: 485-490.
Smith, D.D. and W.H.Wischmeier.1962. Rainfall Erosion Advances in
Agron. 14:109-148.
293
Steven,J.G., J.
Katharine and A.B.P.E.Taras.1986. Erosion and
Sediment Control Handbook, Mc Graw-Hill Book Company, USA: 370p.

Tangtham. N. 1984. Soil Erosion Control. Department of Conservation,
Faculty of
Forestry, Kasetsart University, Bangkok, Thailand.
______ . and K.Lorsirirat.1993. Prediction Models of the Effect of Basin

Characteristics and Forest Cover on Reservoir Sedimentation in Northeastern
Thailand. Kasetsart J. (Nat. Scl.) 27: 230 235p.
Troeh, F.R., J.A.Hobbs, and R.L. Donahue.1999. Soil and Water
Conservation. Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458.
USA.610p.
Wischmeier, W.H and D.D.Smith.1958. Rainfall energy and its relationship
to soil loss. Trans. Annex. Geophys. Union 39: 285 291p.
______ . 1959. A rainfall erosion index for a universal soil-loss
equation. Soil Sci. Soc. Annex. Proc.,23: 246-249.
______ .and D.D.Smith.1978. Predicting rainfall erosion losses.
Agricultural Handbook. 537p. USDA, Washington D.C.
Cau hoi:
1. e suat nghien cu la g?
2. Viet e suat nghien cu e lam g?
3. Mot e suat nghien cu gom nhng phan bc nao?
4. Vai tro cua tng phan cua mot e suat nghien cu?
5. M au cua mot e suat nghien cu c viet nh the nao cho
hp ly?
6. at van e trong mot e cng nghien cu dung e lam g?
7. Mot e suat nghien cu bao gom cac thong tin g?
8. Cau truc cua mot bao cao nh the nao cho hp ly?
9. Nhng kho khan nao trong viec viet mot e cng nghien cu?
294
10. Khi viet mot e cng nghien cu can quan tam ti nhng van e
g?
Tai lieu tham khao:
1. VU CAO AM, 2003, Phng Phap Luan Nghien Cu Khoa Hoc,
Nha xuat ban KH & KT. Ha Noi.
2. NGUYEN NGOC KIENG, 1996, Thong ke hoc trong nghien cu
khoa hoc, NXB Giao Duc.
3. NGUYEN VAN LE, 2001, Phng phap luan nghien cu khoa
hoc, NXB Giao Duc
4. TRUNG NGUYEN, 2005, Phng Phap Luan Nghien Cu Khoa
Hoc (Cam nang hng dan tng bc danh cho ngi bat au).
Nha xuat ban Lao ong - Xa hoi. Ha Noi.
5. NGUYEN THANH PHNG, 2000, Bai giang mon phng phap
nghien cu khoa hoc, ai Hoc Can Th
6. PGS.TS. Nguyen Bao Ve, ThS. Nguyen Huy Tai, Giao trnh
phng phap nghien cu khoa hoc ai hoc Can Th
7. DNG THIEU TONG, 2002, Phng Phap Nghien Cu Khoa
Hoc Giao Duc va Tam Ly, Nha xuat ban ai Hoc Quoc Gia TP
Ho Ch Minh. Ho Ch Minh.
295
CHNG 14
M S HA S LIU PHC V X L
D LIU TRONG NGHIN CU
IU TRA MI TRNG
Nu bn thc s tin hnh ti nghin cu, bn s thu thp c
nhng thng tin nh yu cu. Bc tip theo l phi lm g vi nhng thng
tin ? Bn tm cu tr li cho cc cu hi nghin cu nh th no? Bn
chng minh hay bc b cc gi thuyt nh th no, nu c? Bn to nn kh
nng phn on cc thng tin thu c ra sao? Cc thng tin s c
phn tch nh th no t c cc mc tiu nghin cu ra? tr
li cho cc cu hi , bn phi tri qua mt lot cc bc nhm thit lp
mt quy trnh x l s liu.
Bt lun phng php thu thp s liu l g chng na th cc s liu
thu thp c u gi l s liu th hoc s liu n gin. Bc u
tin trong qu trnh x l s liu l phi chc chn rng cc s liu l
tinh, v d nh khng b mu thun v khng b thiu. Qu trnh lm
tinh s liu c gi l qu trnh bin tp s liu (editing).
14.1. BIN TP S LIU
Bin tp l qu trnh tng hp kt qu t cc nghin cu xc nh
v gim cc li n mc ti thiu, s thiu ht, s phn loi sai hoc thiu
cc thng tin thu thp c t nhng ngi tr li phiu phng vn do
ngi nghin cu
Qun t cu hi.
Qun ghi chp cu tr li.
Phn loi sai cu tr li.
Mi ch vit c mt na cu tr li, hoc
294
Vit rt kh c.
Trong trng hp mt bng cu hi phng vn ngn, cc vn tng
t cng c th xy ra. Nhng vn ny c th c gim bt bng cch
n gin:
Kim tra cc ni dung xem cha
Kim tra tin cy cc cu tr li.
Cch kim tra ni dung tu thuc vo s liu thu thp c. Trong
trng hp mt cuc phng vn, ch cn kim tra k hoch phng vn cho
cc vn trn l c th chng minh c cht lng ca s liu. Trong
trng hp mt bng cu hi ngn, cng nh vy, ch cn kim tra cn thn
cc cu tr li, mt s vn c th c gim bt. C mt vi cch gim
thiu cc vn :
Bng suy lun cc cu hi trong mt cng c nghin cu c th
lin quan ti 1 cu hi khc v c th tm c cu tr li cho mt cu hi
t mt cu tr li ca 1 cu hi khc. Tt nhin l phi cn thn vi nhng
suy on nh vy.
Bng cch nhc nh nu nh s liu c thu thp bng cch thc
phng vn, i khi ngi phng vn c th nhc nh (gi m) nhng cu tr
li cho ngi tr li. Cng ging nh trn, bn phi v cng cn thn.
Bng cch quay tr li gp ngi tr li nu s liu c thu thp
bng cch phng vn hay bng bng cu hi ngn c cha mt s thng tin
xc nh, bn c th gp li hoc gi in cho ngi tr li xc nhn hoc
m bo chc chn cu tr li. iu ny tt nhin l tn km nhiu thi gian
v tin bc.
C hai cch bin tp s liu:
1. Thm tra cc cu tr li cho 1 cu hi hoc s bin i ti mt thi
im.
295
2. Thm tra cc cu tr li cho tt c cc cu hi ti cng mt thi

im, tc l thm tra cc cu tr li c a ra bi 1 ngi tr li.
Tc gi thch phng php th 2 hn v n cung cp mt bc tranh
tng th ca cc cu tr li, iu gip bn nh gi tin cy ca chng.
14.2. M HO S LIU
Sau khi lm sch s liu, bc tip theo l m ho n. Phng php
m ho c ph bin rng ri bi 2 l do:
1. Quan tm n cch m 1 bin s c xc nh nh th no trong
cng c nghin cu.
2. Bn mun thng tin nhng khm ph v mt bin s cho ngi c.
m ho, du hiu u tin phn bit l c mt tp hp s liu c
cht lng hoc s lng trng thi nguyn thu. i vi s liu c
cht lng, s phn bit r hn khi thng tin c din mo trong t nhin,
hoc pht sinh qua loi cht lng ring bit. V d, cc thng tin di y
t ngi tr li l nhng loi thng tin cht lng ring r:
- Mc nhim: rt nng, trung bnh, nh.
- Gii tnh: nam, n.
- Tn gio: Thin Cha gio, Hindu gio, Hi gio, Pht gio,...; hoc
thi i vi mt vn : rt tn thnh, tn thnh, dao ng (khng chc
chn), khng tn thnh, rt khng tn thnh. Vi mi mt bin k trn c
o bng hoc n v qui nh trc hoc n v th t (an ordinal scale).
Mt s loi bin cng c th c o bng t l (a ratio scale) hoc khong
cch (an inteval scale). V d, thu thp c th c o bng cc ch s
Ecoly, pH, c cht kim loi nng, hoc thi i vi mt vn c th
c o bng mt n v cho trc hay t l so snh vi mt i tng cho
trc. Cch bn cng tc m ha tip theo khng nhng ph thuc vo n
v o c s dng trong vic o c cc bin v cn ph thuc vo loi cu
hi l cu hi m hay cu hi ng.
296
Thm vo , cc loi th tc thng k c th c p dng cng tu

thuc vo n v o ca cc bin. V d, bn c th pht hin ra cc k hiu
thng k khc nhau nh gi tr trung bnh, cch thc v s trung bnh nu
thu nhp c o bng n v t l, nhng s khng c iu khi n c
o bng n v tn hoc n v th t. Mt iu v cng quan trng hiu
rng cch bn c th phn tch mt tp hp thng tin l da vo n v o
c s dng o c cc bin. Do , mt iu rt quan trng hnh
dung c c bit l trong giai on lp k hoch xy dng cng c
nghin cu - l cch m bn d nh chuyn ti cc pht hin ca mnh.
Nu nh nhim v ca bn l m t mt hin tng, tnh hung hay
chng trnh, hoc vit mt l lch nghin cu, bn khng cn phi tri qua
cc quy trnh x l c nu chi tit nh trong phn cn li ca chng ny.
Tuy nhin, nu bn c nhiu vn nghin cu v bn mun phn tch cc
ni dung ca chng bng my tnh, bn c th s dng chng trnh c
thit k chuyn bit nh Ethnograph hoc Nudist.
phn tch s liu bng my tnh, cc s liu hoc phi c cht
lng, hoc phi s lng, v n phi c chuyn i sang dng m
my tnh c th hiu c. Cc my tnh ch c th hiu c ngn ng nh
phn (ngn ng bao gm cc k t 0 v 1). Trong khi , cun sch ny
khng gii thch qu trnh , ch cn nhn thc c rng s liu cho
my tnh phn tch phi c m ho thnh cc gi tr s. Qu trnh chuyn
i thng tin sang gi tr s c gi l m ho.
M ho s liu th bao gm 4 bc:
1. Pht trin s m k hiu.
2. Tin kim tra (kim tra trc) s m k hiu.
3. M ho s liu, v
4. Ti kim tra cc s liu c m ho.
297
14.3. PHT TRIN S M HIU

S m hiu cung cp mt tp hp cc quy tc quy nh cc gi tr s
cho cc cu tr li thu c t nhng ngi tr li. Hy xem xt mt v d.
Hnh 14.2 lit k mt s cu hi t mt bng cu hi thm d kin c
s dng trong t kho st ca tc gi Thnh ph H Ch Minh nhm xc
nh tc ng ca vic ti b tr ngh nghip ln c nhn. Cc cu hi c
la chn p ng nguyn mu cho vic pht trin mt s k hiu, v
chng bao trm cc vn khc nhau xoay quanh qu trnh.
pht trin s k hiu nhm chun b s liu cho phn tch my tnh,
iu quan trng l bit c mt t v nguyn tc lm vic ca my tnh v
chng trnh c s dng, mt cch ngn gn, c 3 loi my tnh: my tnh
ln, my tnh trung bnh v my tnh c nhn. C rt nhiu chng trnh
(phn mm) thng k c th c s dng vi cc loi my tnh (tu thuc
vo phn mm c thit k trn h iu hnh no). Cc loi th tc
thng k c th p dng cho s liu khng ch tu thuc vo mc ch phn
tch, cch m bn mun thng tin nhng pht hin ca mnh ti ngi c
v kin thc ca bn v cc th tc thng k m cn ph thuc vo nhng
kh nng ca phn mm. Hu ht cc chng trnh, s liu c nhp vo
di mt nh dng (format) c bit. Do , iu quan trng l phi bit
chng trnh ca bn yu cu loi nh dng g.
C hai loi nh dng s liu: dng c nh v dng t do.
Trong chng ny, chng ta s s dng kiu nh dng c nh
minh ho cch pht trin s k hiu nh th no.
nh dng c nh quy nh mt mu thng tin thu c t 1 ngi tr
li c nhp vo di dng ct ring bit. Mi ct c mt s v s th t
ct trong s quy nh loi thng tin c th c nhp vo. Thng tin v c
nhn do c nhp vo theo hng trong cc ct . Cc my tnh trc
y cho php 80 ct trn mt bn ghi (trong mi 1 hng) nhng ngy nay
my tnh c th nhp cc thng tin ring bit ln ti 256 ct. Nu cc thng
tin v mt ngi tr li vt qu 80 hay 256 ct, bn cn phi s dng n
298
bn ghi th hai (hay hng th hai). V rng ca mn hnh my tnh l 80

k t, nu bn mun xem tp hp s liu mt cch y trn mn hnh,
bn phi gii hn ch c 80 ct trn mt bn ghi.
Hnh 14.1: V d v cc cu hi trong mt kho st v ti mi trng nhn vn
Sau khi hc mi trng, bn ra trng lm g? Nh th no
1) Vui lng cho bit:

a) Tui hin ti ca bn:.....................
c) Tnh trng hn nhn ca bn (vui lng nh du):
Hin ti c gia nh
Sng chung nhng khng ng k kt hn
ly hn
Cha lp gia nh
2b. Nu hc cao ng /i hc ngnh mi trng, vui lng ch r trnh
t c v lnh vc nghin cu (ch r cc vn bng sau i hc).
Trnh t c
Lnh vc nghin cu: v d Qun l mi trng, K

thut mi trng, tin hc mi trng,
D b i hc
i hc
C nhn
K s
Thc s
Tin s
Tin s khoa hc
299
11. Theo bn, nhng khc bit chnh gia ngh nghip ca bn trc
v sau khi c bng, ti b tr l g?
...................................................................................................
...................................................................................................
...................................................................................................
12. Chng ti mun bit nhn thc ca bn v 2 cng vic trc v
sau khi ti b tr, theo hc ngnh mi trng c hp khng, vi mt s kha
cnh sau. Vui lng nh gi chng theo 5 cp nh hng dn di y:
5 = v cng hi lng; 4 = rt hi lng; 3 = hi lng; 2 = tht vng; 1 =
v cng tht vng.
Trc khi ti
b tr
1 2
Cc lnh vc
4 5
1
Tnh trng cng vic
S hi lng v cng vic
ng lc thc y lm vic
S thch th lm vic
S qu trng, tn trng
Nng lc chuyn mn
Tng tc theo nhm
Tinh thn
Mi trng lm vic
Tc ng mi trng x hi ln c
nhn bn
300
Sau khi ti b tr
2
i vi mt ngi mi bt u, iu quan trng l phi hiu c cu

trc ca s k hiu (hnh 14.2), n da trn cc cu tr li t cc cu hi
c a ra trong (hnh 14.1).
Bng 14.2: Mt v d v s k hiu dnh cho qu trnh s ha d liu
Mu cu tr li
STT
ct
STT
cu hi
1-3
S.no
ID
S serial thc t
M thc
STT
bn ghi
RNO
Bn ghi th nht
Bn ghi th hai
Bn ghi th ba
20 24
25 29
30 34
35 39
40 44
45 49
Khng tr li
lp gia nh
Sng chung nhng khng ng k kt

hn
ly thn
ly d
1 (a)
1 (c)
Tn bin
Tui
MS
K hiu
(m)
301
2 (b)
302
Cha lp gia nh
Khng tr li
TEDU
1
D b i hc
i hc
C nhn
K s
Thc s
Tin s
Tin s khoa hc
K
hiu
nh TEDU
TEDU1
Ging nh trong TEDU
TEDU2
Ging nh trong TEDU
TEDU3
Ging nh trong TEDU
STUDY
Cc khoa hc MT
K thut MT
Kinh t MT
Tin hc MT
K s MT
a l MT
Lch s MT
ha
Th th

Y t
10
Ngh thut biu din
11
Th k
12
Cng tc x hi
13
Tm l hc
14
Gio dc hc
15
ng vt hc
17
Nhn hc
18
Cc khoa hc x hi
19
Qun l cng ng/Sc khe v MT
20
Anh ng chuyn cho MT
21
Gio dc MT
22
Khng tng ng
88
Khng tr li
99
STUDY1
Ging nh STUDY
1213
STUDY2
Ging nh STUDY
K
hiu
nh
STUDY
1415
STUDY3
Ging nh STUDY
DIFWK
Thiu s hi lng v cng vic
1011
2 (b)
11
- Cng vic hin nay
01
- Cng vic trc y
02
303

Thiu trch nhim
- Cng vic hin nay
03
- Cng vic trc y
04
Tinh thn thp

- Cng vic hin nay
05
- Cng vic trc y
06
Khng chp nhn cng vic nng nhc

- Cng vic hin nay
07
- Cng vic trc y
08
Cc k nng ph hp
- Cng vic hin nay
09
- Cng vic trc y
10
S nhm chn
- Cng vic hin nay
11
- Cng vic trc y
12
Cng vic gin on nhiu hn
304
- Cng vic hin nay
13
- Cng vic trc y
14
Trng thi lm vic gim st
15

Quy trnh phc tp hn
- Cng vic hin nay
16
- Cng vic trc y
17
Trch nhim hn ch hn
- Cng vic hin nay
18
- Cng vic trc y
19
Km linh ng hn
- Cng vic hin nay
20
- Cng vic trc y
21
Tip xc vi nhiu ngi hn

- Cng vic hin nay
22
- Cng vic trc y
23
Tip xc vi t ngi hn
- Cng vic hin nay
24
- Cng vic trc y
25
Trch nhim tng ln

- Cng vic hin nay
26
- Cng vic trc y
27
Mi trng lm vic tt hn
305

- Cng vic hin nay
28
- Cng vic trc y
29
Tinh thn lm vic tt hn

- Cng vic hin nay
30
- Cng vic trc y
31
Lm vic theo nhm

- Cng vic hin nay
32
- Cng vic trc y
33
Lm vic c lp
- Cng vic hin nay
34
- Cng vic trc y
35
Thiu an ton lao ng

- Cng vic hin nay
36
- Cng vic trc y
37
Lm vic c ngy (3 ca)
38
Nhiu trin vng tt hn cho s nghip
306
- Cng vic hin nay
39
- Cng vic trc y
40
Khng ph bin
41
Cc iu kin lm vic khc
42
Thay i trng thi ngh nghip
43
Mc ngh nghip cao

- Cng vic hin nay
44
- Cng vic trc y
45
Nhiu cng tc bo mt hn trong cng

vic hin ti
46
Mi trng chuyn su hn trong

- Cng vic hin nay
47
- Cng vic trc y
48
Cc k nng khc hc trong cng vic

hin nay
49
Khi lng cng vic phi lm cao hn

- Cng vic hin nay
50
- Cng vic trc y
51
S gim st km hn trong
- Cng vic hin nay
52
- Cng vic trc y
53
307

Cng vic hin ti ph hp hn vi
chuyn mn c o to
54
Cng vic hin ti b ch hn
55
Tinh thn lm vic tt hn trong cng

vic hin ti
56
Nhim v a dng hn trong

- Cng vic hin nay
57
- Cng vic trc y
58
Cng vic hin ti b ch hn
59
Tinh thn lm vic tt hn trong cng

vic hin ti
60
Cc nhim v km a dng hn trong

cng vic hin ti
61
Cc k nng i hi t hn trong
308
- Cng vic hin nay
62
- Cng vic trc y
63
Thay i cng v cng tc
64
Cng vic trc y i hi rt kht khe
65

C hi s dng sng kin trong cng vic
trc y
66
Cng vic hin ti khng i hi sng to
67
Cng vic hin ti i hi cc k nng

khc nhau
68
Khng c trin vng s nghip

- Cng vic hin nay
69
- Cng vic trc y
70
Mi trng chuyn su hn trong cng

vic hin ti
71
Cc k nng khc hc trong cng vic

hin nay
72
Cc iu kin lm vic khc
73
Thay i tnh trng ngh nghip (s thay

i khng xc nh c)
74
Thay i s quan tm ti cng vic
75
Cng vic hin ti c kt cu hn
76
Hin ti l mt phn ca nhm
77
309
16-17 11
12
310
Khng thay i
78
Cu tr li khng ph hp
79
Cu tr li khc
80
Khng dng c
88
Khng tr li
99
DIFWK1
Ging nh DIFWK
DIFWK2
Ging nh DIFWK
K
hiu
nh trong
DIFWK
DIFWK3
Ging nh DIFWK
DIFWK4
Ging nh DIFWK
DIFWK5
Ging nh DIFWK
BEAFTER
V cng bt mn
Bt mn
Hi lng
Rt hi lng
V cng hi lng
K
hiu
nh trong
26
JOBSTA
Ging nh trong BEAFTER
27
JOBSTB

BEAFTER
28
JOBSTA
29
JOBSTB
Trong hnh 14.2,

Ct 1 l ct m cc phn ring bit ca thng tin c nhp vo. S
xc nh r v tr ca ct trong nh dng c nh l v cng quan trng v
khi bn vit mt chng trnh bn cn ch r ct cha phn ring bit ca
thng tin c nhp vo my tnh c th thi hnh cc th tc yu cu.
Ct 2 xc nh s cu hi m thng tin s c m ha.
Ct 3 ch ra tn bin. Mi mt bin trong chng trnh c t mt
tn duy nht chng trnh c th thc hin cc th tc thng k yu cu.
Thng thng c s khng ch trong cch m bn t tn bin (v d, s ca
cc k t bn c th s dng t tn mt bin v s dng bng ch ci
hay ch s). Bn cn phi kim tra chng trnh ca bn v iu ny. Bn
nn t tn bin theo cch m bn c th d dng nhn ra n qua tn.
Ct 4 lit k cc cu tr li cho cc cu hi khc nhau. Vic pht
trin mt mu cu tr li cho cc cu hi l quan trng nht, kh nht v
mt nhiu thi gian nht. Mc kh trong vic pht trin mt mu cu tr
li khc vi cc loi cu hi trong cng c nghin cu (cu hi ng hoc
m). Nu l mt cu hi ng, mu cu tr li c pht trin nh l mt
phn ca vic xy dng cng c v vic bn cn phi lm trong giai on
ny l n nh mt gi tr s cho mi loi cu tr li. V mt phn tch, y
l u in chnh ca cc cu hi ng. Nu cu hi ng c cha nhng loi
cu tr li khc, iu chnh cc cu tr li m bn khng lit k trong
khi pht trin cng c, bn nn phn tch cc cu tr li v n nh chng
sao cho khng trng khp vi cc loi cu tr li khc ging nh cch m
311
bn lm i vi cc cu hi m. B sung chng vo cc loi cu tr li c

pht trin v n nh cho chng vi mi gi tr s.
Nu s cu tr li cho mi cu hi l nh hn 9, bn ch cn 1 ct
m ha cc cu tr li; v nu s cu tr li cho mi cu hi l ln hn 9 v
nh hn 99 th bn cn 2 ct (ct 1 trong s k hiu). Nhng nu vi mt
cu hi, ngi tr li a ra nhiu hn 1 cu tr li th s ct c n nh
nn tng ng vi s cu tr li c m ha. Gi s nu c 8 cu tr li c
kh nng xy ra vi 1 cu hi c th, v ngi tr li a ra 3 cu tr li,
bn cn phi c 3 ct m ha cc cu tr li . Chng ta gi s c 12
cu tr li c kh nng xy ra vi 1 cu hi th m ha mi cu tr li
bn cn 2 ct, v do vy, m ha 3 cu tr li bn cn n 6 ct.
Vic m ha cc cu hi m c kh khn hn.
Vic m ha cc cu hi m yu cu cc loi cu tr li trc ht
c pht trin thng qua mt qu trnh gi l phn tch ni dung. Mt cch
n gin hn l chn s mt cch ngu nhin ca k hoch phng vn/bng
cu hi thm d t k hoch phng vn/bng cu hi thm d tng th. T
la chn ra mt cu hi m v vit ra cu tr li (hoc cc cu tr li)
trn mt mt giy. Nu ngi no a ra hn 1 cu tr li th vit chng ra
mt cch ring r trn cng mt mt. Tng t, cng t k hoch phng
vn/bng cu hi thm d , la chn cu hi m khc v vit ra cc cu
tr li trn mt mt khc. Bng cch nh vy, bn c th la chn cc cu
hi m v vit ra cc cu tr li. Nn nh rng cc cu tr li cho mi cu
hi c vit ra trn mt mt ring. By gi la chn bng cu hi thm
d/k hoch phng vn khc v cng tin hnh qu trnh tng t. Tip tc
qu trnh cho n khi bn cm thy cc cu tr li c lp li v bn
khng thu c (hoc rt t) nhng thng tin mi.
By gi, ln lt kim tra tng cu tr li cho mi cu hi xc nh
nhng c im ging v khc nhau. Nu c 2 cu tr li (hoc hn) c
ngha ging nhau, khng nht thit phi ging nhau v cu ch, th c gng
tng hp chng li thnh mt dng. t tn cho dng sao cho d nhn
312
dng cu tr li. Nn nh rng, khi bn m ha s liu, m ha cc dng, th

cc cu tr li s khng cn l bn thn n na. Bn nn vit ra nhng cu
tr li khc nhau di cc dng tng ng trong s k hiu, trong khi m
ha, bn c th bit kiu cu tr li m bn nhm thnh 1 dng.
Trong vic pht trin cc dng , c 3 iu quan trng cn lu :
1. Cc dng nn tch bit vi nhau. Cc dng pht trin khng trng
lp nhau. Mt cu tr li khng th t vo c gia 2 dng.
2. Cc dng cn phi ton din (bao hm ht mi kha cnh), tc l,
hu ht mi cu tr li c th c t vo trong 1 dng. Nu c qu nhiu
cu tr li khng th ghp thnh dng c, th l du hiu ch r s
khng hiu qu trong phn loi. Trong tnh hung nh vy, bn nn kim tra
li cch phn loi ca bn.
3. Vic s dng thm mt dng khc c tc dng nh mt st rc
nht cc cu tr li m khng th a vo bt k dng no, cn phi c
gi li, bi v n phn nh sai st ca h thng phn loi. Loi ny khng
vt qu 5% tng s cu tr li v khng cha cc cu tr li nhiu hn cc
dng khc.
Ct 5 lit k cc m k hiu thc t ca s k hiu m bn quyt nh
gn cho cu tr li. Bn c th gn bt k gi tr s no cho bt k cu tr
li no min l n khng lp li trong cu hi tng t. Hai cu tr li
thng c lp li l: khng tng ng (not applicable) v khng tr
li (no response). Bn nn la chn mt s sao cho c th s dng c
cc cu tr li nh vy cho tt c hoc hu ht cc cu hi. V d, cc cu
tr li l khng tng ng v khng tr li c gn m k hiu tng
ng l 8 v 9, cho d l cc cu tr li cho 1 cu hi c th c gii hn
ch 2 hoc 3. Gi s bn mun m ha gii tnh ca 1 ngi tr li v bn
quyt nh m ha n = 1, nam = 2. i vi cu khng tr li, thay v gn
m k hiu l 3, s gn mt m k hiu l 9. xut ny s gip tng tc
m ha.
313
gii thch qu trnh m ha, chng ta hy lit k cc cu hi trong

v d Bng 14.2
Cu hi 1a
y l cu hi m v s lng. Trong cc cu hi kiu nh vy th
iu quan trng l xc nh r phm vi ca cu tr li phc v cho tng
c s khc nhau v nhn thc ngh mi trng cc la tui khc nhau.
Ngi ta phi chn, ngi tr li c tui thp nht v ngi c tui cao
nht. lm c iu , chn ra mt s ca bng cu hi hoc k hoch
phng vn. Mi mt dy c thit lp, phn chia n thnh mt s ca cc
dng. Cc dng c pht trin ty thuc vo s mc tiu ca phn tch,
cch bn mun thng tin nhng pht hin ca mnh ti ngi c v hoc
nhng khm ph d kin s so snh vi vi nhng nghin cu khc. Chng
ta gi s rng dy s trong nghin cu l 23 49 tui v chc chn rng bn
pht trin cc dng di y l ph hp vi mc ch nghin cu: 20 24,
25 29, 30 24, 35 39, 40 44, 45 49. Nu dy s ca bn l ng, bn
khng cn phi to thm dng khc. Bn quyt nh m ha: 20 24 = 1,
25 29 = 2, 30 24 = 3, 35 39 = 4, 40 44 = 5, 45 49 = 6. ph hp,
bn gn khng tr li mt m k hiu l 9. Bn quyt nh m ha cc cu
tr li cho cu hi ny ct 5.
Cu hi 1c.
y l mt cu hi ng v phn loi, tc l, mu cu tr li c
cung cp (c sn). Trong nhng trng hp nh th ny, bn ch cn gn
mt gi tr s cho mi dng. V d, bn c th m ha: Hin ti c gia
nh = 1; Sng chung nhng khng ng k kt hn = 2; ly thn =
3; ly hn = 4; Cha lp gia nh = 5. Bn c th thm Khng tr
li nh l mt dng khc v gn cho n m k hiu = 9. Cu tr li cho cu
hi ny c m ha trong ct 6.
Cu hi 2b.
314
Trong cu hi ny, ngi tr li cn phi ch r lnh vc m anh/ch

t c cao ng/i hc. Do mt ngi c th c nhiu hn 1 vn
bng, nn y l mt cu tr li a bi. Trong nhng cu hi nh vy, c hai
mt (kha cnh) ca cu hi u c m ha. Trong trng hp ny, iu
c ngha l trnh t c (th d nh Associate Diploma, Diploma)
v lnh vc nghin cu (v d nh k s, k ton). Khi s ha cc cu tr li
a bi, phi la chn ti a s cu tr li c th s ha. Chng ta gi s
rng, bn s ha ti a 3 mc ca gio dc i hc/cao ng chuyn
ngnh mi trng. Mc m ha u tin l TEDU (T = tertiary; v EDU
= education. t tn bin trnh t c theo cch ny s d dng xc
nh) v sau l lnh vc nghin cu, STUDY (lnh vc nghin cu =
STUDY). Trong v d trn, chng ta gi s rng bn quyt nh s ha 3
mc thnh tch. phn bit, chng ta gi cp th nht l TEDU 1,
cp th hai l TEDU 2 v cp th ba l TEDU 3 v s ha chng
trong cc ct tng ng l 7, 8 v 9. Tng t, cc tn a ra cho 3 lnh vc
nghin cu l STUDY1, STUDY2 v STUDY3 v s ha chng trong cc
ct 10 -11, 12 -13 v 14 -15. Cc m k hiu t 1 23 c gn cho cc vn
bng khc nhau c lit k trong s. Nu ngi tr li ch c 1 vn bng
th cu hi ca vn bng th hai v ba l khng tng ng v bn phi chn
mt m k hiu cho khng tng ng. Gi s bn gn cho n m s 88.
i vi cu khng tr li bn gn m s 99.
Cu hi 11.
y l mt cu hi m v cht lng. s ha n, bn cn phi qua
qu trnh phn tch ni dung (content analysis). Trong phm vi chng ny
khng th gii thch chi tit nhng cc dng cu tr li c lit k trn
c s cc cu tr li ca 109 ngi trong t kho st v ti b tr ngh
nghip trong c nc ta. Trong vic ha s cc cu hi kiu ny, mt mt
bn phi kim sot c s bin thin trong cc cu tr li; mt khc, bn
mun phn tch chng ra thnh cc dng c ngha xc nh nhng
tng ng. Do cu hi ny nhm xc nh s khc bit gia cng vic
trc v sau khi ti b tr ngh nghip, cho d dng, chng ta gi s cc
315
bin ny c tn l DIFWK (DIF = difference v WK = work). Cc cu tr

li cho cu hi ny c lit k trong hnh 14.4. Cc cu tr li ny c
la chn mt cch ngu nhin t bng cu hi thm d kin.
Mt khc bit chnh gia nghin cu v cht lng v v s lng l
cch cc cu tr li c s dng trong bo co. Trong nghin cu v cht
lng, cc cu tr li thng thng c s dng hoc l ng nguyn vn,
hoc l c t chc li di nhng ch no v cc cu tr li thc t
c cung cp chng minh cho chng.
Trong nghin cu v s lng, cc cu tr li c kim tra, cc ch
ph bin c xc nh, c t tn (hoc cc dng c pht trin) v
cc cu tr li c phn loi di cc ch . S liu sau c phn
tch xc nh tn sut ca cc ch . Cng c th phn tch cc ch
trong mi lin h vi mt s c im khc nh tui, gio dc v thu nhp
ca nghin cu mu.
S m s ha lit k cc ch trn c s cc cu tr li a ra. Mi
khi xem, nhiu dng c th cho cng kt qu. Theo li khuyn ca tc gi
th bn ng nn lo lng v iu v cc dng c th lun c tng hp
li khi c yu cu. Tri li l khng th c tr khi bn quay tr li s
liu th.
Gi s bn mun m ha ti 5 cu tr li cho cu hi ny v t tn
cho 5 bin l DIFWK1, DIFWK2, DIFWK3, DIFWK4 v DIFWK5.
Chng c m ha tng ng trong cc ct 13 14, 15 16, 17 18, 19 20
v 21 22.
Cu hi 12.
y l mt cu hi c cu trc rt cht ch nhm so snh s tha
mn trn 5 cp vi cc lnh vc khc nhau ca cng vic trc v sau khi
ti b tr. Khi chng ta nh gi mc hi lng trc v sau khi ti b tr
cng vic cho ng chuyn mi trng, hy vng rng nhng ngi tr li
a ra 2 cu tr li cho mi lnh vc. Trong v d ny, gi s chng ta s
316
dng tn JOBSTA t cho cu hi v tnh trng cng vic sau khi chuyn
i (JOB = job; ST = status, A = after redeployment) v trc khi chuyn
i l JOBSTB (JOB = job; ST = status, B = before redeployment). Tng
t, i vi lnh vc th hai, s hi lng trong cng vic, tn bin l
JOBSATA (JOB = job; SAT = satisfation; A = after redeployment) i vi
cng vic sau khi chuyn i v tn bin l JOBSATB i vi cng vic
trc khi chuyn i. Tn cc bin khc cng c gn mt cch tng t
nh vy. Trong v d trn, bin JOBSTA c nhp vo ct 23, bin
JOBSTB c nhp vo ct 24, v v.v....
(Xin c mt ghi ch: Cc ch m ha ny thng dng ting Anh
d giao dch vi quc t, nu khng s dng ting Vit cng tt).
14.4. KIM TRA TRC S M S HA
Mi khi s m s ha c thit lp, iu quan trng l n phi
c kim tra xem c vn g khng trc khi bn m ha s liu. Vic
kim tra trc ny xoay quanh vic la chn mt vi bng cu hi thm
d/k hoch phng vn v cc m k hiu thc t cu tr li xc nh
chc chn bt k vn g xy ra trong qu trnh m ha. C th l bn
khng c chun b y cho mt s cu tr li v do , s khng th
m s ha chng. Thay i li s m v s ha nu bn thy cn, di nh
sng ca vic kim tra trc.
14.5. S HA S LIU
Sau khi hon thnh s m ha, bc tip theo l m ha s liu th.
C 2 cch thc hin iu :
S ha trc tip trn bng cu hi thm d kin/k hoch phng
vn, nu khong khng gian cho s ha c cung cp trong khi xy
dng cng c nghin cu.
S ha trn cc bn m ring bit. Hnh 14.8 trnh by cc s liu
s ha trn mt bn m.
317
gii thch qu trnh s ha ny, chng ta ly cc cu hi tng t

nh c s dng trong phn pht trin s m k hiu. Chng ta chn 3
bng cu hi thm d kin mt cch ngu nhin t tng s 109 ngi tr
li (bng 14.5, 14.6, 14.7). S dng s m ha nh l mt hng dn, chng
ta m ha cc thng tin t cc bng ny ln bng s ha (bng 14.8). Chng
ta hy kim tra qu trnh s ha bng cch xem xt ngi tr li th ba
(bng 14.5).
Ngi tr li th ba:
Tng s ngi tr li l ln hn 99 v y l bng cu hi thm d th
ba, do s 003 c a ra xc nh s c m ha trong ct 1 3
(bng 14.8). Do n l bn ghi th nht cho ngi tr li nn s 1 c
m ha trong ct 4. Ngi tr li ny 49 tui v ri vo dng 45 49, do
c m ha l 6. V cc thng tin v tui c nhp vo ct 5, nn s 6
cng c m ha trong ct ny ca bn m ha. Tnh trng hn nhn ca
ngi ny l ly d, v th s 4 c m ha vo ct 6. Ngi ny c
bng c nhn qun l th vin. M c chn cho bng c nhn l 3, m
ny c nhp vo ct s 7. C 3 vn bng i hc/cao ng c a ra,
v ngi ny ch c 1 vn bng; do m cc bin TEDU2 v TEDU3 l
khng thch ng. V vy, m s 8 c nhp vo ct 8 v 9. vn bng c
nhn ca ngi ny thuc lnh vc qun l th vin nn n c gn m s
9 v c nhp vo ct 10 11. Bi v ch c 1 vn bng nn cc bin
STUDY2 v STUDY3 l khng thch ng, do m 88 c nhp vo cc
ct 12 13 v 14 15. Ngi ny a ra mt s cu tr li cho cu hi s 11
(DIFWK), trong lit k nhng khc bit chnh gia cng vic trc v
sau khi ti b tr. Trong khi m ha nhng cu hi nh vy yu cu phi rt
cn thn. Kim tra cc cu tr li c tn DIFWK1, DIFWK2, DIFWK3,
DIFWK4 v DIFWK5 xc nh cc m c th c gn. M 22 (hin ti
giao tip vi cng ng) c gn cho 1 trong nhng cu tr li v nhp
vo ct 16 17. S khc bit th hai, DIFWK2, c gn m 69 (i hi k
nng hon ton khc) v nhp vo cc ct 18 19. DIFWK3 c gn m 77
(cng vic hin nay c cu trc hn) v nhp vo cc ct 20 21. Tng t,
318
s khc bit th t (DIFWK4) v th nm (DIFWK5) tng ng c m

ha l 78 (hin ti mt phn ca nhm c thay th bng ngi lm vic
c lp) v 38 (v thi gian lm c ngy) v c nhp vo cc ct tng
ng l 22 23 v 24 25. Cu hi 12 m ha v cng n gin. Mi mt
lnh vc ca cng vic c 2 ct, mt ct cho cng vic trc v mt ct cho
cng vic sau khi ti b tr. Tnh trng cng vic (JOBST) c phn ra
thnh 2 bin, JOBSTA cho mc hi lng ca ngi tr li i vi cng
vic sau khi ti b tr, v JOBSTB l cho cng vic trc khi ti b tr.
JOBSTA c nhp vo ct 26 v JOBSTB c nhp vo ct 27. M 5
c gn cho JOBSTA (v ngi tr li nh du vo mc 5) v c
nhp vo ct 26; cn JOBSTB c gn m 4 v c nhp vo ct 27. Cc
lnh vc khc ca cng vic trc v sau khi ti b tr cng c s ha mt
cch tng t.
Hai v d khc cng c s ha theo kiu ny. S liu m ha c
trnh by trong hnh 14.3. Trong qu trnh m ha, bn c th s tm ra mt
s cu tr li m khng ph hp vi cc dng nh trc. Khi , bn
gn m cho chng v b sung chng vo trong s m ha.
Bng 14.3: Mt s cu hi s dng trong t kho st ngi tr li th ba
1. Vui lng cho bit:
a) Tui hin ti ca bn:
49
b) Tnh trng hn nhn ca bn (vui lng nh du):

Hin ti c gia nh
ly thn
ly hn
Cha lp gia nh
2. Nu hc cao ng/i hc, vui lng ch r trnh t c v lnh
vc nghin cu (ch r cc vn bng sau i hc).
319
Trnh t c
Lnh vc nghin cu: v d k s, k ton, v.v...
D b i hc
i hc
C nhn
Mi trng
K s
Thc s
Tin s
Tin s khoa hc
3. Theo bn, nhng khc bit chnh gia ngh nghip ca bn trc v
sau khi ti b tr l g?
V thi gian hin ti lm c ngy, i hi cc k nng hon
ton khc, Hin ti giao thip rng ri hn, Bn rn hn, cng vic
kht khe hn, Hin ti lm vic c lp, khng theo nhm.
4. Chng ti mun bit nhn thc ca bn v 2 cng vic trc v sau
khi ti b tr vi mt s kha cnh sau. Vui lng nh gi chng theo 5 cp
nh hng dn di y:
5 = v cng hi lng; 4 = rt hi lng; 3 = hi lng; 2 = tht vng;
1 = v cng tht vng.
Bng 14.4: Mt s cu hi s dng trong t kho st ngi tr li th 59
320
Trc khi ti b tr
1
Cc lnh vc
5
Sau khi ti b tr
1
Tnh trng cng vic
S hi lng v cng vic
ng lc thc y lm vic
S thch th trong cng vic
S qu trng, tn trng
Nng lc chuyn mn
Tng tc theo nhm
Tinh thn
Mi trng lm vic
Tc ng x hi
1. Vui lng cho bit:

b) Tnh trng hn nhn ca bn (vui lng nh du ):
Hin ti c gia nh
ly thn
ly hn
Cha lp gia nh
Trnh t c
321
D b i hc
i hc
C nhn
Khoa hc hnh vi
K s
Thc s
Tin s
Tin s khoa hc
t trch nhim hn, Cng vic c trng hn, Phm vi b hn ch.
nh hng dn di y:
v cng tht vng.
Bng 14.5: Mt s cu hi s dng trong t kho st ngi tr li
th 81
Trc khi ti b tr
1
Cc lnh vc
5
Tnh trng cng vic
S hi lng v cng vic
ng lc thc y lm vic
S qu trng, tn trng
Nng lc chuyn mn
Tng tc theo nhm
Tinh thn
Mi trng lm vic
Tc ng x hi
1. Vui lng cho bit:

322
Sau khi ti b tr
1

b) Tnh trng hn nhn ca bn (vui lng nh du ):
Hin ti c gia nh
ly thn
ly hn
Cha lp gia nh
Trnh t c
D b i hc
i hc
C nhn
Cng tc x hi
K s
Thc s
Tin s
Tin s khoa hc
V tr trc y ca ti i hi phi tp trung ht tm tr vo ton b
cc lnh vc ca cc t chc chnh ph/qun chng v phi chnh ph. Cn vi
v tr hin ti, ti khng hi lng lm, c bit l trong mi quan h vi nhng
ngi phm ti m ti giao tip.
323

nh hng dn di y:
v cng tht vng.
Trc khi ti b tr
1
Cc lnh vc
5
Sau khi ti b tr
1
Tnh trng cng vic
S hi lng v cng vic
ng lc thc y lm vic
S qu trng, tn trng
Nng lc chuyn mn
Tng tc theo nhm
Tinh thn
Mi trng lm vic
Tc ng x hi
14.6. XC NHN S LIU S HA

Khi s liu c m s ha, chn mt vi cng c nghin cu mt
cch ngu nhin v ghi chp li cc cu tr li xc nh bt k s khc
nhau no trong vic m ha. Tip tc xc nhn vic m ha cho n khi bn
chc chn rng khng cn s khc bit no. Nu c s khc nhau, hy kim
tra li vic m ha.
14.7. PHT TRIN MT C CU PHN TCH
324
Mt c cu phn tch cn ch r:
Nhng bin no m bn d nh phn tch;
Chng s c phn tch nh th no;
Bn cn phi lp ra nhng bng ma trn g;
Nhng bin no bn cn phi tng hp xy dng nhng khi
nim chnh hoc pht trin cc ch s (trong vic thnh lp cng thc cho
mt vn nghin cu, cc khi nim c chuyn i thnh cc bin
giai on ny ta chuyn chng tr li thnh cc khi nim);
Nhng bin no c a vo cc th tc thng k.
minh ha, chng ta hy ly v d t t kho st c s dng
trong chng ny.
14.7.1 Cc phn phi tn sut
Cc phn phi tn sut nhm nhng ngi tr li thnh cc di loi
(sub categories) m trong cc bin c phn chia. Tr khi bn
khng c k hoch s dng cc cu tr li, bn nn c mt phn phi tn
sut cho tt c cc bin. Mi mt bin c th c ch r hoc l ring r,
hoc l chung trong c cu phn tch. biu th cc bin i c xc
nh mt cch ring r, ta cho chng cc tn v c s dng trong s
m s ha.
Phn phi tn sut c dng cho cc bin sau:
AGE;
MS;
TEDU (TEDU1, TEDU2, TEDU3 cc cu tr li a bi (phc
tp) c phn tch chung);
STUDY (STUDY1, STUDY2, STUDY3 - cc cu tr li a bi
(phc tp) c phn tch chung);
325
DIFWK (DIFWK1, DIFWK2, DIFWK3, DIFWK4, DIFWK5 - cc

cu tr li a bi (phc tp) c phn tch chung);
JOBSTA, JOBSTB;
JOBSATA, JOBSATB;
MOTIVA, MOTIVB;
V.v...
14.7.2. Phng php lp bng ma trn (Mastic)
Phng php ny lit k ng thi cc hot ng ca d n vi danh
mc, cc iu kin hoc cc c trng mi trng c tc ng ln nhau. Cc
lit k ny th hin di dng to 2 chiu, m trc honh l cc hot n
pht trin v trc tung l cc nhn t mi trng. T , ta thy xut hin
quan h nhn qu gia nhng hot ng kinh t x hi vi cht lng mi
trng.
Cc bng ma trn phn tch hai bin, thng c lp v ph thuc
hoc thuc tnh v ph thuc, xc nh mi quan h gia chng, nu c.
Cc s hng ca c 2 bin c a vo bng ma trn tm hiu chc chn
mi quan h tn ti gia chng, nu c.
Tu theo cch cu trc v chc nng m ngi ta chia phng php
ma trn ra cc loi sau: ma trn n gin, ma trn theo bc v ma trn
nh lng.
a. Ma trn n gin
Loi ny c biu din trn trc to 2 chiu: trc honh lit k cc
hot ng d n, trc tung lit k cc nhn t mi trng. Hot ng no
gy tc ng ln nhn t no s c nh du vo to ca 2 ct hoc
trong ni gp nhau ca 2 yu t nhn qu (xem v d bng 14.6).
Bng 14.6. Ma trn tc ng mi trng i vi nh my giy Tn Mai,
ng Nai
326
Cht lng nc mt
To vic lm
Kh thi
Nc thi
*
Cht lng khng kh
Thu sn
Mi trng sng sinh

vt
Sinh vt
ng giao thng xa
l H ni
Cp nc Ho An
Trng trt cnh nh
my
Rc thi
*
Thy vn
S dng t
Cp nc
Vn chuyn nguyn liu
mi trng
S dng thuc tr su phn

bn
Thnh phn
Xy dng
Cc hot ng
d n
Trang tri nh Thng
Cung cp Nh cho
cng nhn
Sc kho dn
Kinh t x hi tnh
*
*
*
*
Ma trn ny mi ch nh tnh, ch ra nhng tc ng ca thnh phn

no ln nhn t no ch cha nh lng
b. Ma trn theo bc
327
Ma trn ny cn gi l ma trn dng hnh gc vung hay ch

thp, c th dng ch ra cc tc ng th cp do tc ng ban u gy
ra. Trong ma trn ny, mt s nhn t mi trng c trnh by c trc
tung ln trc honh. Cc hu qu thay i ban u mt s nhn t n
nhn t khc cng c trnh by. C th hiu ma trn loi ny gm nhiu
ma trn k tip nhau nhm ch ra c cc tc ng th cp c th xy ra.
V d v loi ma trn c ch ra hnh sau:
A B
G H
A
B
C
D
E
F
A
B
H
I
J
Hnh14.6. Khi nim v ma trn theo bc
T hnh ny cho thy hot ng mang s 3 tc ng n nhn t mi

trng D lm thay i nhn t ny. Thay i nhn t ny li tc ng lm
thay i nhn t A v nhn t F. Thay i nhn t A lm thay i nhn t B
v I, cn thay i nhn t F li c th thay i nhn t H... Ma trn theo
328
bc gip truy tm cc tc ng th cp v coi mi trng nh mt h

thng. y l phng php tng quan gia phng php ma trn v
phng php mng li.
c. Ma trn nh lng
Trong cc ca ma trn nh lng khng ch nh du kh nng tc
ng, loi tc ng m cn ch ra mc tc ng, loi tc ng v tm
quan trng ca nhn t... Mc tc ng c th l khng r, tiu cc v
tch cc, hoc c th nh lng, nh cp. Trong ma trn Leopold (1968),
h thng nh cp theo thang t 1 n 10 c dng cho c mc tc ng v
tm quan trng ca tc ng. Vi mc tc ng, mc 1 l mc tc ng thp
cn mc 10 l mc tc ng cao nht. Leopold lp c ma trn 100 tc
ng v 88 thng s mi trng.
Mt ng dng ma trn loi ny i vi nh my bt giy Phng
Hong, Thi Lan. Tng theo hng v theo ct s gip nhn nhn tc ng
ng thi ln mt nhn t ca cc tc ng v tc ng tng hp ca mt
hot ng ln tt c cc nhn t mi trng.
Phng php ma trn cng l phng php n gin, d s dng,
khng i hi nhiu s liu mi trng nhng li c th phn tch mt cch
tng tn tc ng ca nhiu hot ng khc nhau ln cng mt yu t mi
trng. Mt s li ch c th ca phng php ny l:
S dng phng php ma trn trong vic xc nh v trnh by cc tc
ng c s dng cho nhiu d n. S d nh vy v chng d bin i,
nhiu dng ca n c xy dng v s dng. Ma trn tng tc c
mt s li ch phng php ma trn: xc nh v tin ti nh lng cc tc
ng gin tip.
Mi quan h gia pht trin v mi trng c s dng d dng.
Ma trn cung cp mt s phng php trnh by cc tc ng
di dng d hiu.
329
Tuy nhin, phng php ny cng c mt s nhc im th hin ch:

Kh xc nh c cc tc ng th cp, ngoi tr ma trn theo bc.
Cha xt n din bin theo thi gian ca cc hot ng, tc ng
nn cha phn bit c tc ng lu di hay tm thi.
Hin nay ngi ta ang c gng ci tin to ra cc ma trn c th
khc phc c cc nhc im trn v mc d c nhc im nh vy,
phng php ny vn c s dng ph bin cho bi ton tc ng mi
trng nhiu bin s.
To vic lm
Tng
17
24
Thy vn
Cht lng khng kh
330
17
Mi trng sng sinh vt nc
Sinh vt cn
Thu sn
Mi trng sng sinh vt cn
Kh thi
Nc thi
Cp nc
Rc thi
Cht lng nc mt
Vn chuyn nguyn liu
mi trng
Trang tri nh Thng
Thnh phn
Xy dng
Cc hot ng d n
S dng thuc tr su phn

bn
Bng 14.7: Ma trn nh gi tc ng mi trng mang tnh nh lng

cho d n sn xut bt giy Phng Hong, Thi Lan
12
11

MH s dng t
13
13
ng cao tc/ ng st
6
5
Cung cp nc
Nng nghip
13
Cung cp nh
Sc kho
iu kin kinh t - x hi
19
1
0
18
16
8
Tng
1
3
2
5
2
1
2
2
13
24
11
1
0
3
6
6
1
1
2
0
1
9
14.7.3. Xy dng cc khi nim chnh

C th c nhng ch trong cng c nghin cu m bn tm thy cc
cu tr li thng qua mt s cc cu hi v cc kha cnh khc nhau ca
cng mt vn , v d trong ti v s hi lng i vi ngh mi
trng, th, mc hi lng i vi cng vic trc v sau khi ti b tr
ngh nghip (SATINDA v SATINDB). Trong bng cu hi thm d
kin c 9 kha cnh khc nhau ca cng vic m ngi tr li c hi
xc nh mc hi lng ca h i vi cng vic trc v sau khi ti
b tr. Mc hi lng c th thay i theo tng kha cnh. iu quan
trng l bit c nhng phn ng ca ngi tr li i vi mi kha cnh,
v nh gi c ton b cc ch s ca s hi lng . Do , bn phi
331
bit chc chn rng, trc khi bn thc hin phn tch s liu, bn s tng
hp cc cu tr li cho cc cu hi khc nhau nh th no.
Trong v d ny, nhng ngi tr li biu th mc hi lng ca
h bng cch la chn 1 trong 5 loi cu tr li. Mt ch s hi lng c
pht trin bng cch gn mt gi tr s cho cu tr li. Gi tr s tng ng
vi loi cu tr li nh du c b sung xc nh ch s hi lng.
Ch s hi lng cho mt ngi tr li thay i t 9 45. S th hin ch s
ny ty thuc vo cch m cc gi tr s c gn. Trong v d ny, mc
hi lng tng ln theo ch s.
14.7.4. Cc th tc thng k
Phn tch hi quy:
SATINDA v SATINDB.
Phn tch hi quy a bi:
SATINDA vi AGE, EDUCATION, MS;
SATINDB vi AGE, EDUCATION, MS;
Phn mm ANOVA:
Mt cch tng t, n c th cn thit suy lun v ch ra cc bin
khc nhau ty thuc vo cc th tc thng k khc nhau.
14.8. PHN TCH S LIU
S liu m ha c th c phn tch bng tay hay c s tr gip
ca my tnh. Nu s mu l nh va phi th khng c nhiu bin phn
tch, v bn khng quen thuc vi mt chng trnh my tnh no no c
lin quan, cng khng mun hc n, bn c th phn tch s liu bng tay.
Tuy nhin, phn tch bng tay ch hu ch i vi cc tnh ton thng
thng v vi cc bng ma trn n gin. Thm vo , nu bn mun thc
hin cc kim tra thng k, chng phi c tnh ton bng tay hoc bng
my. Tuy nhin, vic s dng cc phng php thng k ty thuc vo
332
chuyn mn ca bn v yu cu ca thng tin phc v nhng khm ph

nht nh no , ty mc ch v yu cu ti nghin cu.
Cn nhn thc rng, phn tch bng tay l v cng mt thi gian. Cch
n gin nht phn tch s liu bng tay l s ha chng mt cch trc
tip ln giy v biu kh ln trong cc ct theo cch tng t nh bn
nhp n vo my tnh. Trn t giy k , bn khng phi lo lng v s
ct. Cc tiu c th c th c s dng hoc cc cu hi c th c
vit ra trn mi ct m ha cc thng tin v cu hi (Bng 14.8).
Bng 14.8: Phn tch bng tay s dng giy k .
Chng trnh:
Ngi lp chung trnh:
M s:
Gio dc
ID
Vng nghin cu
Khc bit trong cng vic
Hin trng
Hon thnh
Tui MS
1
Trc
Sau
Trc
Sau
01
88
88
22
69
77
78
38
59
01
88
88
03
18
77
88
88
81
13
88
88
17
01
88
88
88
Nu bn mun phn tch s liu bng cch s dng my tnh, bn phi

quen thuc vi chng trnh thch hp. Bn cn bit lm th no to mt
file s liu, lm th no s dng cc th tc cn thit, nhng kim tra
thng k g c p dng v lm th no th hin chng. C th thy
rng trong lnh vc ny, cc kin thc v my tnh v vic s dng thng k
ng mt vai tr quan trng.
333
14.9. VAI TR CA MY TNH TRONG NGHIN CU

Cc kin thc v my tnh v cc chng trnh lin quan l v cng
quan trng v tit kim thi gian. S liu c th c phn tch vi s tr
gip ca cc my tnh, c i vi c cc thng tin mang tnh nh lng v
c nhng thng tin mang tnh nh tnh. Cc my tnh trc ht gip tit
kim sc lao ng trong phn tch s liu bng tay v trong cc tnh ton
thng k c tnh cht m t v suy lun. Cc my tnh l nhng cng c lm
tng tc ca bn. N lm thay cc th tc thng k bng tay phc tp v
d nhm ln. N m bo chnh xc. Ngoi ra n cn dng nh my bo
co, hin th s liu phn tch v trnh by chng di dng th. Chng
c thit k thc hin cc th tc v cng phc tp trong khong thi
gian v cng ngn, nu khng s tn rt nhiu thi gian.
14.10. VAI TR CA THNG K TRONG NGHIN CU
Vai tr ca khoa hc thng k trong nghin cu l rt quan trng, tuy
nhin, i khi c phng i qu mc. Thng k ch c vai tr khi bn
thu thp cc thng tin c yu cu, bm st vo cc i hi ca mi bc
hnh ng ca qu trnh nghin cu. Khi s liu c thu thp, bn s chm
trn vi 2 cu hi:
1. Phi t chc cc s liu ny nh th no hiu c n?
2. N c ngha l g?
C mt tr ngi l, cu tr li cho cu hi th nht li da trn nn
tng ca cu hi th hai. Vic s dng thng k ng mt vai tr rt quan
trng trong vic tr li cc cu hi nghin cu.
T cc cu tr li ring r, c bit l nu c nhiu cu, s tr nn v
cng kh khn hiu cc kiu mu trong s liu, v n rt quan trng
tng kt c s liu. Mt s cc phng php thng k n gin nh tnh
t l phn trm, gi tr trung bnh, lch chun v cc h s tng quan c
th lm gim khi lng s liu, lm cho n d hiu hn. Cng cn lu ,
334
trong cc phng php tnh ton gin lc, c th lm cho mt vi thng tin
no b mt v do c th dn n hiu sai. V l do , i hi phi cn
thn khi gii thch s liu.
Vic s dng thng k ng mt vai tr sng cn trong vic hiu c
mi quan h gia cc bin, c bit l khi c nhiu hn 2 bin. Bng kinh
nghim, rt d dng c c mi quan h gia 2 bin t mt bng,
nhng khng th nh lng c mi quan h . Thng k gip bn hiu
r cng ca mi quan h. Chng xc nhn hoc ph nhn nhng g m
bn c c t mt mu tin v cung cp mt ch s v cng ca mi
quan h v mc tin cy ca nhng khm ph. Khi c nhiu hn 2 bin,
thng k cng gip hiu c s ph thuc ln nhau gia chng v s ng
gp ca chng i vi mt hin tng hay mt s kin.
Mt cch gin tip, kin thc v thng k gip bn trong tng bc
ca qu trnh nghin cu. Kin thc v cc vn lin quan n phn tch
s liu, cc kiu kim tra thng k c th c ng dng xc nh r cc
loi bin, v kin thc v tnh ton thng k gin lc trong mi lin h vi
n v o c s dng ng mt vai tr v cng quan trng trong n lc
nghin cu. Tuy nhin, bn cng c th thc hin mt nghin cu hon ho
m khng cn s dng n bt k cc th tc thng k no. iu ny ty
thuc vo cc mc ch nghin cu ca bn.
TIU KT
Trong chng ny, bn hc v qu trnh x l s liu bng s ha
hay m ha. Bt k phng php thu thp s liu l g th thng tin cng
c gi l s liu th hay s liu n gin. Qu trnh s ha bao gm
ton b cc hot ng c thc hin t khi tp hp s liu c thu thp n
khi n c phn tch hoc bng tay, hoc bng my tnh. Qu trnh x l
s liu bt u bng bin tp s liu, tc l qu trnh c bn lm tinh s
liu. Bc tip theo l qu trnh m ha s liu, l qu trnh tun theo mt th
t: pht trin s m ha, kim tra trc s m ha, m ha v xc nhn s liu
m ha. Chng ny cng tho lun v qu trnh pht trin mt s m
335
ha v cung cp mt nguyn mu cho n. Lm th no pht trin cc m

cho cc cu hi m v cu hi ng cng c m t rt chi tit. Chng
ny cng a bn tri qua cc bc m ha s liu bng cch a ra mt v
d t mt t kho st.
Mc d s pht trin ca c cu phn tch cn c tip tc cho n
khi bn k thc bo co, nhng n tr gip rt nhiu trong phn tch s liu
pht trin c cu trc khi bn bt u phn tch s liu. Trong c cu
phn tch, loi phn tch c thc hin (chng hn nh phn phi tn sut,
bng ma trn) v cc th tc thng k c p dng cng c trnh by
c th.
V c bn, cc my tnh gip tit kim sc lao ng. ng dng ca
chng trong cc th tc thng k phc tp v cc th tc ton, x l cu
ch, hin th v trnh by bng th cc s liu phn tch gip tit kim
thi gian v lm tng tc . Thng k cng rt cn nhng khng nht thit
phi c trong 1 nghin cu. V c bn, thng k gip bn to nn s phn
on v s liu, c n, khm ph cc mi quan h v s ph thuc ln
nhau gia cc bin, bit r ln ca mi quan h ang tn ti hoc s ph
thuc ln nhau v khong tin cy trong nhng pht hin ca bn.
Cu hi:
1. Bin tp s liu l g?
2. C my cch bin tp s liu?
3. M ha s liu l g?
4. M ha s liu gm bao nhiu bc? l nhng bc no?
5. C bao nhiu loi nh dng s liu?
6. S ha s liu l g?
7. C my cch thc hin s ha s liu? Nu r tng cch?
8. Mt c cu phn tch cn ch r nhng g?
9. Vai tr ca my tnh trong nghin cu iu tra mi trng l g?
10. Vai tr ca thng k trong nghin cu iu tra mi trng l g?
Ti liu tham kho:
336

NXB Gio Dc
Hc (Cm nang hng dn tng bc dnh cho ngi bt u). Nh
Ch Minh. H Ch Minh.
337
CHNG 15
QUY TRNH X L THNG K THNG

DNG P DNG CHO CC KT QU TH
NGHIM MI TRNG
15.1 GII THIU
Chng ta bit, mt nghin cu c sc thuyt phc l nghin cu m
phi c gng nh lng ho v nh vy, l ng nhin, kt qu ca n
phi c x l thng k, tm s trung bnh, lch chun, phng sai,
tin cy.....
i tng trnh by ca chng ny l nhng ngi hc xong mn
xc sut thng k th nghim c bn, nn y khng nhc li nhng khi
nim na m ch xin b sung, p dng trong nghin cu mi trng.
Thng k mi trng l mt mn ton hc ng dng. N ly l thuyt
xc sut lm c s nghin cu nhng s lng chu nh hng xen k
ca nhiu nhn t ngu nhin t pht (nhn t ngu nhin t pht l nhn t
m con ngi cha c th bit c nguyn nhn mt cch chnh xc).
Th d: khi o pH mt mu nc th qu trnh o ht sc cn thn,
song nu o nhiu ln kt qu vn khng hon ton ging nhau. S khng
ging nhau c gi l sai s, s d c sai s l do nhng nhn t ngu
nhin t pht m ta khng bit.
Vy hin tng ngu nhin nh th no. Tnh cht ca n ra sao?
Th d: Trong nghin cu mi trng nhn vn, xc nh t l nam/n
trong cng ng, th t l ny hnh nh khng tun theo quy lut no. Nhng
nu ta c iu tra cng ng ln hn cho ton quc gia hay ton th gii
mi hng nghn ln th t l xp x bng 1:1, ngi ta gi l quy lut
v s n nh ca tn sut.
337
Mt th d khc, trn mt vung th nghim nu ta ch quan st mt

vi cy th thy s hn km v chiu cao l ngu nhin, nhng nu ta quan
st nhiu cy th s pht hin ra quy lut: s cy thp nht v cao nht l t
nht, s cy c chiu cao trung bnh l nhiu nht. Nu em phn nh mi
quan h mt bn l chiu cao cy v mt bn l s lng cy tng ng ln
th th th biu din s l mt ng cong hnh chung gi l ng
cong chun.
l mt s th d v quy lut ca cc hin tng ngu nhin, nhng
quy lut biu hin qua thng k m ta quan st c trn s ln ln hin
tng gi l quy lut thng k. Quy lut thng k c tt c nhng c trng
ca cc quy lut khc nh: tnh khch quan, tnh tt nhin, v tnh ph bin.
N hnh thnh v pht huy tc dng vi s quan st trn s ln cc hin
tng ngu nhin cng loi. Nh vy, phng php nghin cu thng k
mi trng ra sao?
Thng k mi trng gip cho ngi lm cng tc nghin cu nhng
phng php thu thp s liu v phn tch nhng s liu y xc nh mt
hin tng mt qui lut v mi trng no .
Khi nghin cu, cn lu cc yu t sau:
1- Nn thu thp bao nhiu s liu l va v t c chnh
xc mong mun trong kt lun v phi b tr cch thu thp nh th no
ph hp vi nhng quy tc s dng khi c kt s liu sau ny. l nhng
vn thuc v quy tc ly mu thit k cng tc iu tra v cng tc th
nghim.
2- Cch sp xp h thng ho nhng s liu thu thp c, c kt
mt cch c ng v y ngha vn dng trong qu trnh nghin cu
v sau.
3- Nghin cu quy lut bin thin ca cc tr s quan trc thc nghim
rt ra nhng nhn nh tng qut.
338
4- So snh nhiu m ng s liu vi nhau, nh gi mc chnh

xc ca nhng chnh lch gia cc m ng s liu y, xc nh hai m
ng c khc nhau thc s khng.
5- Xc nh mi lin h gia nhiu h thng s liu, pht hin tnh
cht v mc cht ch ca mi lin h y, tm ra nhng phng trnh din
t nhng quy lut thc nghim, cho php tng qut ho mt cch nh
lng nhng quan trc thc tin.
15.2. KHI NIM QUY TRNH X L THNG K THNG DNG
Nhng qui trnh x l thng k thng dng l nhng qui trnh a ra
nhng lng bin i ngu nhin c sp xp mt cch thng thng.
Theo thng thng hoc theo Gaussain, s sp xp. Mt biu hnh
chung i xng - l mt trong nhng m hnh xc sut quan trng nht
trong cc s liu thng k. Nhng lng bin i ngu nhin c sp xp
mt cch thng thng c xu hng tng ln mt cch t nhin khi c nhiu
nhng lng bin i ngu nhin lin tc v c lp thm vo. V du, mt
ngi bc nhng bc chn ngu nhin t im khi u n lc kt thc
mt khong theo hng sp xp bnh thng. Do vy, c nhiu s sp xp
c trnh by trong phng php ny c th tr nn bnh thng, hoc gn
nh bnh thng, khi nhng tham s ca n t n nhng gi tr gii hn.
Nhng v d ca nhng qui trnh chung a n s sp xp xp x
theo thng thng bao gm nh sau:
1. Mt h dn c gng tit kim 200 lt nc sinh hot mt tun.
Mc d h ny rt c gng tit kim ng 200 lt/tun, nhng thnh
thong s nc tit kim y c khi li t i mt cht c khi li nhiu hn
mt cht. n cui nm, ngi ta c c s nc tit kim 10400 lt
(52 tun, 200 lt/1tun). Mt vi nm h ny tit kim nhiu hn 10400
lt nhng cng c nhng nm t hn 10400 lt. Nu qui trnh ny xy ra
trong mt vi nm (hoc nu nhng h khc cng lm theo cch nh
vy). S sp xp ca tng s nc tit kim hng nm trong khu dn c
s nh th no?
339
2. Nghin cu nhim mi trng do cht ng v phng x c bit,

mt phn t bt u ti mt s im trong khng gian (t gc). Trong chc
lt, t mt kch thc nh, phn t c th gia tng kch thc mt cch
ty v bn phi (thun) hoc v bn tri (nghch). Sau 1.000 ln dch
chuyn nh ty , v tr ca phn t tnh t gc c o. Xc sut sp
xp v tr ca phn t s nh th no? Nu gi tr ca s dch chuyn gia
tng l 12.5 v lch chun l 10. S sp xp v tr cui cng ca
phn t s th no?
3. Trong quan trc mi trng mt dng sng, 30 mu xc nh Cl
(Chloride) c chn lc mt v tr khc bit. Nhng nghin cu trc
cho thy rng, lch chun ca nng Cl trong khu vc ny l 25 mg/l,
nu mt mu t c 30 ln c gi tr l 25,1 mg/l, lm th no chng ta c
th tin chc rng gi tr trung bnh i din cho gi tr thc Cl ca dng
chy. Chng ta c th ni rng c 95% kh nng hoc thm ch 99% kh
nng l gi tr thc nm trong vng 1,0 mg/l ca gi tr quan st.
4. Nghin cu v mi trng lm vic ca con ngi, theo di 100
ngi lm vic trong mt phng rng ln c hin din CO (Carbon
Monoxide). Gi s 12 ngi c chn ngu nhin vo mt ngy ring bit.
S hp th CO ca h c o hn 8 gi. Kt qu 12 mu cho gi tr
10.5ppm v lch chun l 1,9ppm. Chng ta c th ni rng gi tr thc
(nu c nhiu ngi hn c lm mu) nm trong vng 10,5 1ppm vi
95% s bo m.
Tt c nhng tnh hung trn, lng bin i cui cng ca s cn bit
s tin tit kim, khong cch ca phn t t gc, s to thnh gi tr s hc
c sinh ra bng cch tnh tng ca nhng ln quan st.
15.3. NHNG IU KIN CHO QUY TRNH X L THNG K
THNG DNG
Nhiu trng hp lng bin thin t nhin ca mt dy s liu c
tm thy bng cch tnh tng ca nhiu thnh phn khng lin kt. Khi mt
thnh phn ring l khng c lin kt mt cch thch ng v phc tp th
340
kt qu tng c xu hng chun, khi s ca nhng thnh phn bao gm tng

tr nn ln.
Hai iu kin quan trng cho qui trnh x l thng k thng dng l:
(1) Tng ca nhiu lng bin i ngu nhin lin tc v (2) S c lp ca
nhng lng bin i ngu nhin
Mt qui trnh thng dng c kt qu khi mt s ca nhng lng bin
i ngu nhin lin tc khng lin kt c thm vo.
15.4. NGHIN CU NH TNH V NH LNG TRONG KHOA
HC MI TRNG
15.4.1. Dng nghin cu nh tnh
Trong nghin cu qun tr mi trng, c nhng ch tiu kh o m,
nn vic chnh l s liu ch c th tin hnh c sau khi xc nh r
tiu chun phn chia t s liu. Tiu chun phn chia t s liu l c im
nh tnh khc bit gia c th ny vi c th khc trong m ng nghin
cu. ra tiu chun chia t, ta phi cn c vo mc ch nghin cu m
la chn. Th d: nh gi mc bnh mi trng trong mt cng ng
dn c, ta xc nh tiu chun phn t cp bnh nh:
Cp 0: ngi khng b bnh.
Cp 1: ngi mi b nhim bnh (mc nh).
Cp 2: ngi b nhim bnh nng (kh cha khi).
Cp 3: ngi b nhim bnh rt nng (d b t vong).
Trn c s cp bnh c quy nh ta tin hnh sp xp s liu. i
vi mi cp bnh ta ghi bn cnh s ln gp c gi tn s. D nhin, tng
tn s ca cc cp bnh bng tng s c th ly ra nghin cu. Nu ta gi
n0, n1, n2, n3 l tn s ca cp bnh v n tng s c th ly ra nghin cu
ta s c.
n0 + n1 + n2 + n3 = n
341
Mt khc, ta li c cc t s
n0
;
n
n1
;
n
n2
;
n
n3
c gi l tn
n
sut ca cc cp bnh.
T , ta lp mt ng thc:
n0 n1 n2 n3
+ + + =1
n n n
n
Ta c th ghi tn sut di dng t l phn trm:

n0
n
n
n
100; 1 100; 2 100; 3 100 . Tng cc t l phn trm l 100.
n
n
n
n
Bng 15.1: Kt qu iu tra bnh mi trng qun 8 Thnh ph H Ch

Minh (L Huy B, 2000)
Cp bnh
Tn s ni
Tn sut pi
T l %
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
0,08
74
0,74
74
13
0,13
13
0,05
Tng cng
100
1,00
100%
Ct (1) cp bnh nh ni trn.

Ct (2) s c th trong tng cp bnh gi l tn s (ni).
i=k
n
i =1
=n
Trong
: l k hiu ni ln mt tng gm nhiu tr s c l xch ma.
I: l th t t th nht (cp bnh 0) n t th k (cp bnh 3 trong th

d trn).
342
ni : tn s ca tng t.
n : tng s c th nghin cu.
Ta c th c i lng
nh sau:
Tng (hoc xch ma) cc tr s ca i lng ni t i = 1 n

i=k
Ta c th vit nh sau:
n
i
hoc
v c tt l tng ni hoc xich ma ni.
Ct (3) t s gia s c th trong tng cp bnh (tng t) vi tng s

c th nghin cu n gi l tn sut ca cp bnh (tn sut ca t) k hiu
bng ch pi vi:
i=k
p
i =1
= p hoc c vit n gin l
Ct (4): tn sut tnh theo phn trm.

Qua bng cho thy mc nhim bnh ch yu l cp 1.
15.4.2 Dng nghin cu nh lng

a. Vi nhng loi s liu c gi tr nguyn
Loi s liu c gi tr nguyn l nhng s o m c nhng kt qu
ch l nhng s nguyn.
Th d, tm hiu tnh hnh tng trng ca cy c nng (Eleocharis
Dulcis) ch th cho mc chua phn ca sinh thi mi trng t, chng
ti tin hnh quan st s nhnh ca 500 bi c nng trn 1 th nghim.
T s liu quan st c ta thy s nhnh thp nht l 20 v cao nht
l 32. thnh lp c bng phn b tn s ta sp xp theo th t tng dn
343
s nhnh lm tiu chun phn t v thnh lp bng nh ni phn c

tnh nh tnh:
Bng 15.2: Kt qu iu tra s nhnh ca c nng trong rung th nghim

S nhnh
Tn s (ni)
Tn sut (pi)
T l (%)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
20
0,004
0,4
21
0,000
0,0
22
0,008
0,8
23
17
0,034
3,4
24
29
0,058
5,8
25
51
0,102
10,2
26
82
0,164
16,4
27
143
0,286
28,6
28
86
0,172
17,2
29
55
0,110
11
30
25
0,050
31
0,010
32
0,002
0,2
Cng
500
1.000
100%
Cc ct: cho thy c nng hnh thnh nhnh kh tp trung, s nhnh

trung bnh khong 27 nhnh.
Nhn vo dy s liu ta kh tm thy c mt quy lut v s thay i
chiu cao ca 50 cy. thy r quy lut bin ho , chng ta phi ghp
nhng c th c chiu cao gn nhau thnh tng t v lp bng phn b tn
s nh trnh by 2 bng trn. Song y s liu bin thin lin tc
nn khng th p dng phng php trn. xy dng bng phn b tn
s, vn t ra y l, nn phn m ng s liu trn thnh bao nhiu
t. Kinh nghim cho thy s t khng nn t qu v cng khng nn qu
344
nhiu, m tu thuc vo s lng c th nghin cu nhiu hay t nh s

t t 6 n 20.
V nu s lng t t th khong cch gia cc t s ln v tnh i
din ca gi tr gia t s km, do rt kh thy c chnh xc quy lut
din bin ca hin tng. Trng hp s t qu nhiu th cc tr s tnh
c chnh xc hn nhng vic tnh ton rt phin phc v quy lut ca
hin tng nhiu khi khng bc l r nt.
b. Vi nhng loi s liu c gi tr lin tc

Mt i lng X c gi l bin thin lin tc trong mt khong nu
nh X c th nhn mi gi tr nm trong khong . Trong thc t nu, X c
gi tr nguyn, nhng cc gi tr ca n sai lch rt t so vi khong bin
ng ca dy s liu quan st c th ta c th xem l bin thin lin tc.
Th d, xc nh ng u ca qun th Tm trong nghin cu
mi trng nui tm s Tr Vinh, o chiu di 50 con ngu nhin, kt qu
nh sau.
Bng 15.3. Chiu di thc o ca 50 con tm s trong th nghim

Duyn Hi, Tr Vinh (mm)
772
833
983
865
845
902
725
875
915
925
743
830
866
825
730
971
774
835
885
790
810
794
815
835
825
823
825
905
715
885
674
785
890
855
855
932
925
845
865
965
815
785
625
725
815
865
845
865
895
865
345
Bng 15.4: Phn nhm s liu iu tra 50 con tm s trong th nghim

Duyn Hi, Tr Vinh
Gii hn t
Tr s gia
Kt qu st
Tn s (ni)
Tn s (pi)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
625 674
650
0,02
675 724
700
0,04
725 774
750
0,10
775 824
800
11
11
0,22
825 874
850
18
18
0,36
875 924
900
0,18
925 974
950
0,06
975 1000
1.000
0,02
50
1.00
Cng
Theo -xpe-khp th:

Khi c 300 600 s liu nn chia lm 6 -7 t.
600 1000 s liu nn chia lm 7 8 t.
Trn 1000 s liu nn chia lm 8 15 t.
Trong mt s trng hp c th, ta c th tham kho cng thc xc
nh s t ca B. Rooke v Carruther nh sau:
K= 5 log n
Trong K: l s t phn chia.
n: s c th ly ra nghin cu.
Theo th d (3 5) th: K= 5 log 50 = 8,49
346
S t phi l mt s nguyn nn ta ly gi tr gn ng K= 8 v
khong cch t:
C =
X max X min
K
Trong : C: l khong cch t.

Xmax : l tr s quan st c gi tr ln nht.
Xmin : l tr s quan st c gi tr nh nht.
Trong th d trn th Xmax = 0,975 ; Xmin = 0,625
C =
0 , 975 0 , 625
8
= 0 , 043
tin cho vic tnh ton, ta ly C = 0,05

Khi bit c s t v khong cch t ta xc nh c gii hn t v
tn s ca tng t theo phng php kim phiu nh bng 15.3.
Gii hn t y ng ra phi l nhng s lin tc, gii hn trn ca t
th nht phi bng gii hn di ca t th hai v gii hn trn ca t th hai
phi bng gii hn di ca t th ba v gii hn trn ca t th ba phi bng
gii hn di ca t th t v gii hn trn ca t th t phi bng gii hn
di ca t th nm...
0,625
To 1
0,675
0,725
To 2
To 3
0,775
To 4
0,825
To 5
Hnh 15.1. Th hin gii hn ca cc t i vi nhng s liu

bin thin lin tc
Nhng trnh s nhm ln cc gi tr c tr s nm ranh gii ca c
hai t, khng bit t trn hay t di. Theo l lun th chng c th t
t trn hay t trn hay t di u c, nhng phi thng nht trong qua trnh
lp bng. V vy ngi ta thng nht rt i mt n v ca s l cui cng nh
ct (1) bng 15.4.
347
Ct (2) l tr s gia ca t k hiu bng ch Xi c tnh bng cng

thc:
Xi =
Gii han tren cua to + gii han di cua to

2
Th d: Tnh gi tr gia ca t 1:
X1 =
0,675 + 0,625
= 0,650
2
Trong : 0,675 l gii hn trn ca t 1.

0,625 l gii hn di ca t 1.
0,650 l tr s gia ca t 1.
V cc gi tr khc cng tng t nh vy.
Ct (3): kt qu quan st c thnh lp theo phng php kim phiu.
Ct (4), (5) nh trnh by bng (1 5), v bng (2 5).
Khi trnh by s liu bng phn phi cn ch :
Ta phi xc nh cc t v gii hn cc t mt cch r rng, sao cho
cc t khng chng ln nhau, trnh trng hp khng bit phi xp mt s
liu t trn hay t di.
Cc t ni tip nhau thnh mt dy lin tc khng k h gia hai t.
Cc khong cch gia cc t nn bng nhau. Xc nh gii hn gia
cc t nn tnh sao cho cc gi tr gia ca t l nhng s nguyn tin
cho php tnh ton v sau.
15.5. CC THAM S XC NH MC PHN TN CA MU

15.5.1. Phm vi bin ng
Phm vi bin ng l khong cch gia gi tr trn v gi tr di ca
mu c tnh bng cng thc:
348
R = Xmax - Xmin
Do phm vi bin ng ch l khong cch, nn khng thun li cho
qu trnh nhn xt, do n t c s dng.
15.5.2. lch chun mu

Gi s: S liu iu tra hm lng Fe2+ trong nc thu c 2 ngun
nc vi hai dy tr s:
(1) 9 13 17 21 25 (ppm)
(2) 1516 171819 (ppm)
(1) v (2) u c s trung bnh l 17 nhng (1) s hn km nhau
gia cc tr s ln hn s hn km nhau gia cc tr s (2). Hay ni cch
khc l, mc bin ng dy (1) ln hn mc bin ng dy (2). Nh
vy s trung bnh cha ni ln bn cht ca nhim nc m phi c
mt c trng no khc thuyt minh mc bin ng ca dy tr s
quan st. S c trng ny gi l lch chun mu.
lch chun mu l cn bc 2 ca t s gia tng bnh phng phng

sai t cc tr s quan st n s bnh qun mu vi tng s bc t do.
S=
(x
x) 2
n 1
(6 5)
Trong :
S: c gi l lch chun mu,
(n-1) : c gi l t do.
Ta hy dng lch chun mu xem xt s bin ng ca
nhim ngun nc th hin qua hai dy s liu bng 15.5.
349
Bng 15.5: Cch tnh S theo cng thc nh ngha

Dy (1) n = 5
Dy (2) n = 5
_
Xi
( X i X)
(X i X) 2
Xi
(X i X)
(X i X)2
-8
64
15
-2
13
-4
16
16
-1
17
17
21
16
18
25
64
19
X = 17
160 = (X i X)2
X = 17
10 = (X i X) 2
S(1) =
160
= 6,32
5 1
S(2 ) =
10
= 1,58
5 1
Kt qu tnh bng cho thy, S(1) ln hn S(2) chng t dy (1) bin

ng hn dy (2).
T cng thc (6 5) ta rt ra mt s nhn xt:
ln ca S tu thuc vo tng ly sai bnh phng gia tr s quan

st vi s bnh qun ca chng v ln ca i tng nghin cu.
ln ca dung lng mu khng lm thay i ln ca S,. N ch
ni ln mc chnh xc ca S. Nu ti liu qua chnh l vi Xi l tr s
gia ca cc t v ni l tn s tng ng ca mi t th
S=
n (x
i
x) 2
n 1
(7-5)
Cng bng cch chng minh tng t ta c th vit cng thc (7 5)

di dng khc.
S=
350
n (x
i
x) 2
n 1
n X
i
( n i X i ) 2 : n
n 1
(9-5)
Vi hai cng thc v (9 5) ta khng phi tnh thm nhiu s hng m

kt qu tnh vn m bo tnh tin cy.
nm c k thut tnh lch chun ta ln lt tm hiu cc th

d :
Th d: Tnh
S cho chiu di con tm trong th nghim mi
trng ni tm cng nghip Tr Vinh theo s liu ch.
Bng 15.6: Xc nh chiu cao bnh qun v lch chun ca 50 con tm

kho st trong th nghim mi trng ni tm cng nghip
Tnh theo cng thc (9 5)
ni
X1 = (X A): C {(A=0,85,
C=0,05}
niXi
X i2
niX12
X1
niX1
X i2
niX12
65
65
4225
4225
-4
-4
16
16
70
140
4900
9800
-3
-6
18
75
375
5625
8125
-2
-10
20
80
11
880
6400
70400
-1
-11
11
85
18
1530 7225
130050
90
810
8100
72900
0,95
285
9025
27075
12
1,00
100 19000
10000
50
4185
352575
n x
: n = 41,85 : 50 = 0,837
nX
i
(X X)
i
2
i
-13
95
A + ( n i x i : n ) C =
0,85 + (-13: 50) 0,05 = 0,837
( n X )
i
35,2575 (41,85) :50 = 0,153
[ nX
i
2
i
( n X ) ] C
n
i
[95 (13)2:50].(0.05)2 = 0,153
351
S=
0,153
= 0,056
49
Cn ch : trong tt c cc cng thc tnh C v S nu gp trng hp

ti liu phn t, ta s ly gi tr gia ca t lm i din cho ton t.
iu ny khng lm gim chnh xc ca gi tr c tnh nu khong
cch ca t hp. Trng hp ngc li nu khong cch ca t ln th kt
qu tnh ton s sai lch so vi tr s thc ca n. khc phc sai lm ny
nh ton hc Anh Shephard nu cng thc hiu chnh sau:
S hc = S2tnh
C2
12
(10 5)
Cng thc trn ch dng trong trng hp mc chnh xc chu nh

hng r rt do vic phn t. Chng hn: nu hin tng ang xt c quy
lut phn phi l thuyt theo dng chun th cng thc hiu chnh ch pht
huy tc dng khi n > (3.S4/C4) (1)
Trong :
S: l lch chun cha hiu chnh.
C: l khong cch t.
15.5.3. H s bin thin CV

lch chun ln hay nh khng nhng ch lin quan n ng
u ca mu m cn lin quan n ln ca mu.
V vy so snh mc bin ng ca nhiu mu ngi ra dng h
s bin ng V so snh.
H s bin ng c tnh theo cng thc:
V (%) =
S
_
100
(11 5)
Nh vy, h s bin ng l mt ch s ni ln mc bin ng bnh

qun cho mt n v ln tnh bng phn trm.
352
Nh c ch tiu ny m ta c th so snh c mc bin ng gia

cc mu trn cng mt tiu chun.
Th d: Trong nghin cu qun th cy c 2 mu theo di mu mt c
chiu cao mt m cy th nghim bnh qun l 18 cm v S1 = 2cm, mu hai
c chiu cao bnh qun l 15cm v S2 = 2cm.
Nu ta ch dng li phn so snh sai s tiu chun th ta kt lun
S1 = S2, c ngha l s bin ng gia hai mu nghin cu l nh nhau. M
thc ra khng phi nh vy. Nhng nu dng ch tiu h s bin ng so
snh th ta thy mu s 2 bin ng nhiu hn mu s 1.
Tht vy:
V%1 =
2
100 = 11,11%
18
V%2 =
2
100 = 13,33%
15
Trong mt s trng hp tnh h s bin ng nhanh chng ta c

th p dng phng php sau:
Tnh S = h R
Trong R l phm vi bin ng.
R = Xmax - Xmin
h l tr s ph thuc ta c th bit c qua dung lng mu quan st
n nh bng:
Bng 15. 7. Dung lng mu quan trc cht lng mi trng

n
0,89
0,40
10
0,32
20
0,27
0,59
0,37
12
0,31
30
0,25
0,49
0,35
14
0,29
40
0,22
0,43
0,34
16
0,28
50
0,22
353

_
Tnh X = (Xmax Xmin): 2(13 5)

V t ta c th tnh ra V% =
hR
X
Th d; ly s liu th d xc nh chiu di 50 con tm s th

nghim:
C Xmax = 0,980 ; Xmin = 0,625; n = 50
Nh vy: R = 0,980 - 0,625 = 0,355
Nu n = 50 th h = 0,22
Do : S = 0,22 x 0,355 = 0,0781
_
X = (0,980 + 0,625): 2 = 0,802(13 5)

V s c V%
Qua cch tnh V% theo cng thc (13 5) cho thy so vi cch tnh
trc tip bng 16.5 th kt qu c sai nhng vic tnh ton nhanh hn
nhiu. Mt khc, ngi ta chng minh c rng cch tnh theo cng
thc (2 5) v (13 5) ch chnh xc hon ton khi i tng nghin cu l
mt tng th n nh v dung lng mu quan st ln. Do y, cch tnh
ny ch c ng dng khi no yu cu chnh xc khng cao.
15.5.4. Tm khong tin cy s liu kt qu nghin cu

Bng nhng khi nim m rng, chng ta c th a ra c mt tin
trnh chung vi nhiu ng dng c bit. Nhng khi nim trn khng tc
dng trong trng hp chng ta bit c gi tr trung bnh v s bin thin
ca gi tr s gc m mu c c, vi thng tin ny chng ta c th tnh
xc sut m gi tr mu quan st c nm trong mt s gii hn xc nh
ca gi tr s. Do , nu chng ta tnh gi tr mu t tp hp n quan st,
ta c th s dng biu thc on c gii hn trong gii hn ca gi tr
thc vi xc sut ( tin cy) l 0,95.
354
Ta c phng trnh chung nh sau:

P X d 0 X + d =p
Xc sut p c gi l mc tin cy, c hin th l CL v thng

cho ra mt s phn trm. l CL=100p. Gii hn kt qu c gi l
nhng khong tin cy. Gi tr CL 90%, 95% v 99% l hon ton ph bin.
Trong trng hp c bit, gi tr ca d cho CLs, tng ng vi CLT c
tm tt bng 15.8
Bng 15.8: Mc tin cy v khong tin cy tng ng cho trng hp

c bit gi tr , c bt ngun t nh l gii hn gia
Mc tin cy (CL)
Khong tin cy
100p
90%
1.65
95%
1.96
99%
2.58
0
n
0
n
0
n
V d bng trn, 30 quan st c chn lc trong vic nghin cu

trm quan st dng chy c tr s nhim l 560mg/l. T nhng phng
php o c trc y, trong cng mt iu kin, cng mt a im, ta kt
lun rng, lch chun l 25mg/l BOD. Nhng iu tra vin mun bit gi
tr thc c th nm trong gi tr quan st c nh th no.
C phi gi tr thc nm trong khong 10mg/l ca gi tr quan st vi
95% s chc chn? S dng biu thc ca khong tin cy 95% bng 15.8,
ta c nh sau:
x 1.96
0
n
= 560 (1.96)
25
30
= 560 (1.96)(5.48) = 560 8.9
355
Do , ngi iu tra c th tin chc 95% rng gi tr thc ca

nhim tnh bng BOD ca mi trng nc nm trong gii hn t 5608.9=551.1mg/l n 560+8.9=568.9mg/l. Bi v, khong tin cy 95% l
(8.9mg/l, nn gi tr thc ca BOD nm trong gii hn hp hn (10mg/l vi
t nht 95% chc chn).
C phi gi tr thc nm trong khong 10mg/l ca gi tr quan st vi
99% s chc chn? S dng biu thc ca khong tin cy 99% bng 15.8,
ta c nh sau:
x 2.58
0
n
= 560 ( 2.58)
25
30
= 560 (2.58)(5.48) = 560 14.1

Vi cng mt d liu, ngi iu tra c th tin chc 99% rng, gi tr
thc nhim biu th bng BOD nm trong gii hn trn 56014.1=545.9mg/l v di 560+14.1=574.1mg/l. V th, cu tr li l
Khng v gi tr thc khng nm trong gii hn tin cy mong mun l
10mg/l vi 99% s chc chn. tin cy 95% l 8.9mg/l, nn gi tr thc
nm trong gii hn hp hn 10mg/l vi t nht 95% chc chn. Do vy,
trong vn ny, khong tin cy nm trong gii hn mong mun l 10mg/l
ca gi tr quan st ti mc tin cy l 95% m khng phi l 99%.
minh ha vic s dng S sp xp t-Student tnh ton khong

tin cy.
V d, trong trm nghin cu mi trng, s hp th CO c c t
12 mu. M mi mu l lng CO2 ca mt ngi b ht vo vi mc trung
bnh x =10.5ppm v mt lch chun quan st s=1.6ppm. Khong tin cy
95% ca gi tr quan st vi gi tr thc l g? T ng cong biu mc
tin cy 95% vi n-1=12-1=11 t do (hnh 15.2) ta c t=2.2. Thay vo
gi tr mu quan st c 10.5ppm trong biu thc trn cho khong tin cy
vi s sp xp t-Student vi cc gi tr s, t v n, ta c kt qu sau:
356
P{ 10.5 2.2
1.6
12
0 10.5 + 2.2
1 .9
12
}=0.95
P{ 10.5 1.2 0 10.5 + 1.2 }=0.95

T kt qu ny, gi tr thc nm trong gii hn 10.5-1.2=9.3ppm v
10.5+1.2=11.7ppm vi xc sut 0.95. Nu ngi iu tra so snh kt qu
ny vi tiu chun sc khe 9ppm, anh ta c th tin chc 95% l trung bnh
ca 100 ngi trong phng l tiu chun trn, mt vn m c th lin
quan n anh ta.
T kt qu khong tin cy l 1.2ppm, n rng hn khong tin cy
1ppm m ngi iu tra c nhu cu. Do , anh ta c hy b s tm thy
ny khi s chnh xc khng tha ng. Tng kch thc mu s lm gim
rng ca khong tin cy, nhng chng ta khng th ni chnh xc bao nhiu
ngi nn lm th nghim bi v chng ta cha bit gi tr lch chun m
s c quan st vi ln ca mu. Mt cch tip cn s thc hnh tt l
s dng lch chun hin ti tnh s lng mu c chn lc, thm
vo mt vi mu ph v lp li th nghim. Khong tin cy 90% v 99% c
th c tnh cho vn ny s dng cng mt biu thc trn, ngoi tr gi
tr t c c t nhng ng cong khc hnh 15.2.
Hnh 15.2: Phc ha h s t nh mt hm s ca t do n-1

t s sp xp t-Student
357
15.5.5. Tm tin cy t
Trong mt s nghin cu iu tra thc a hay th nghim mi trng,
ngi ta dng ch s t k hiu tin cy s sai khc gia nhm nghin
cu vi nhm i chng hay tm s khc nhau ng tin cy gia 2 dy s
liu ca hai i lng em ra so snh. Sau y l mt th d minh ha n
gin (Ngun: Phng theo Nguyn Vn L, 2001).
Trong mt thc nghim mt phng php x l nhim, xc nh
hiu qu x l nc i vi ch tiu DO, theo di 25 mu phn tch ca 2
nghim thc: c x l (nhm 2) v khng x l (i chng), cc kt qu
kim tra t u nh sau
Nhom 1
Nhom 2
iem
f1
iem
f2
10
10
10
11
11
12
12
13
13
14
14
15
15
16
16
1 = 25
2 = 25
Bc 1. Ta so snh cc s trung bnh 1 v 2 2 nhm v xem s

sai khc l bao nhiu:
x2 =
358
f i x i 333
=
= 13, 32
n
25
x1 =
f i x i 298
=
= 11, 8
n
25
d = 13,32 11,8 =1,52

Bc 2. Tnh phng sai v . Mun tnh ta phi lp 2 bng s
liu sau.
a/ i vi nhm 2
xi
fi
xifi
( x i x)
( xi x) 2
( xi x) 2 fi
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
1
3
4
7
3
3
4
10
33
48
91
42
45
64
-3,32
-2,32
-1,32
-0,32
0,68
1,68
2,68
11,02
5,38
1,74
0,10
0,46
2,82
7,18
11,02
16,14
6,96
0,70
1,38
8,46
28,72
= 25
333
= 73,36
b/ i vi nhm 1.
xi
fi
xifi
( x i x)
( xi x) 2
( xi x) 2 fi
10
10
100
-1,8
3,24
32,40
11
22
-0,8
0,64
1,28
12
36
0,2
0,04
0,12
13
52
1,2
1,44
5,76
14
42
2,2
4,84
14,52
15
30
3,2
10,24
20,48
16
16
4,2
17,64
17,64
= 25
298
= 92,20
fi ( xi x) 2 73,36
S =
=
= 3,06
n 1
24
2
2
359
fi ( xi x) 2 92,20
S =
=
= 3,85
n 1
24
2
1
Bc 3. Tnh tin cy t theo cc s liu thc nghim.
t=
t=
d
=
md
x 2 x1
2
1
m =m
2
2
x 2 x1
S12 S 22
+
n1 n 2
1,52
1,52 1,52 1,52
=
=
=
3,85 3,06 6,92 0,25 0,5
+
25
25
25
t = 3,04
t: tin cy; d: hiu ca 2 trung bnh cng; md: sai s ca hiu; m2: sai s
ca 2; m1: sai s ca 1; cng thc chung: m= ; n l s c th nghin cu.
Bc 4. Tra bng Student so snh gi tr t thc nghim vi gi
tr t l thuyt trong bng. Trong bng Student, khi so snh 2 dy s liu thc
nghim v i chng, ta c:
N = n1 + n2 2 = 25 + 25 2 = 48.
T nay ta tra bng Student tm cc gi tr ca t ng vi cc mc xc
sut nht nh v tip tc bin lun.
thy r, chng ti gii thiu tm tt 2 bng Student c cc

sch thng k gip chng ta hiu.
360
Bng Student (dng I)

p 0,95
0,99
p 0,95
0,99
12,7
63,66
17
2,12
2,92
4,30
9,92
18
2,11
2,90
3,18
5,84
19
2,10
2,88
2,78
4,60
20
2,093
2,861
2,57
4,03
25
2,064
2,997
2,45
3,71
30
2,045
2,756
2,37
3,50
35
2,032
2,729
2,31
3,36
40
2,023
2,708
10
2,26
3,25
45
2,016
2,692
11
2,23
3,17
50
2,009
2,679
12
2,20
3,11
60
2,001
2,662
13
2,18
3,06
70
1,996
2,649
14
2,16
3,01
80
1,991
2,640
15
2,15
3,98
90
1,987
2,633
16
2,13
3,95
100
1,984
2,627
361
Bng Student (dng I)

P
0,95
0,99
0,999
0,95
0,99
0,999
N
1
12,7
63,7
13
13
2,2
3,0
4,1
4,3
9,9
31,6
14-15
2,1
3,0
4,1
3,2
5,8
12,9
16-17
2,1
2,9
4,0
2,8
4,6
8,6
18-20
2,1
2,9
3,9
2,6
4,0
6,9
21-24
2,1
2,8
3,8
2,4
3,7
6,0
25-28
2,1
2,8
3,7
2,4
3,5
5,3
29-30
2,0
2,8
3,7
2,3
3,4
5,0
31-34
2,0
2,7
3,7
2,3
3,3
4,8
35-42
2,0
2,7
3,6
10
2,2
3,2
4,6
43-62
2,0
2,7
3,5
11
2,2
3,1
4,4
63-175
2,0
2,6
3,4
12
2,2
3,1
4,3
176
2,0
2,6
3,3
Trn bng Student (dng II), ct N = t 43 n 62, ta c 3 gi tr

ca t ng vi 3 mc xc sut:
t1 = 2 (P=0,95)
t2 = 2,7 (P=0,99)
t3 = 3,5 (P=0,999)
V gi tr ca t thc nghim= 3,04 > t bng = 2,7, ta kt lun rng s
sai lch v im s trung bnh ca nhm th nghim v nhm i chng l
ng tin vi xc sut 99%. Hay n cch khc, hiu qu x l nhim lm
tng DO ngun nc mc ng tin cy 99%.
15. 6. NG DNG VO NHNG VN MI TRNG

362
Tnh ton khong tin cy t mt tp hp quan st bng cch s dng

phng php m t trung thc. Tuy nhin, d liu cht lng mi trng
thng thng li a n kt qu d thng, iu lm cho cc nh
nghin cu nghi ng v nhng k thut m n da vo. V d, vic c
hng gi cht lng nc hoc cht lng khng kh xung quanh thng
c mt vi s ph thuc mnh m. Do , nng quan st trong mt gi
ring bit khng ph thuc vo nng quan st vo gi tip theo. V s
tng quan tun t nh vy, s qui t v pha trung bnh thng thng
hng gn n dn hn nhng biu thc d on trn. Lm sao s tng
quan nh vy lm thay i nhng khong tin cy c tnh ton t nhng
d liu mi trng ny?
Wayne R. Ott v Mage gii thch vn tnh ton khong tin cy t
d liu mi trng khng kh xung quanh c bit ph thuc qu nhiu
tham s. Chng tn ti mt s quan st hng nm nng CO xung quanh
c o ti Trung tm Thnh ph H Ch Minh (ng t By Hin, ng t
Hng Xanh) v cc trm quan st khng kh (giai on 12 thng t ngy 1
thng Su nm 1998 n ngy 31 thng Nm nm 1999). Mc du mt nm
bnh thng c 8760 gi, 187 s quan st b b l, trung bnh CO c c
ch cho 8573gi. Nhng s quan st b b l thng do phi ngng theo di
sa thit b v bo tr, tuy nhin s ci t d liu ny kh y vi
97,9% ton nm. Hn na 187 s quan st b b l dng nh c sp
xp bng nhau sut nm.
Biu s quan st CO nm y (hnh 15.3) trnh by mt phng thc
n v mt ng cong thun. Khi nhng tn s tch lu tn ti t nhng
biu ny c phc ha bng giy lng logarit - xc sut ng cong
xut hin thng mt cch tng i, biu din mt s sp xp lognormal.
Xc tin s phn tch ca d liu ny bi nhng tc gi a ra s tng
quan ng k. Nu chng ta x l nm ca nhng s quan st nh l mt
qun th gc m t mt mu c v, th gi tr qun th c tnh l
U = 3.537 ppm,v lch chun qun th c tnh =2.271ppm. Bi v
c bit c th s dng v d Monte Carlo v nhng v d ngu nhin
363
ca nhiu kch thc t qun th ny v thy c nh th no gi tr ca

nhng v d ny nm trong cng vi gi tr thc . Bi v khi c
bit, ta c th thy c lch chun ca nhng gi tr quan st s ng
vi phng php d on theo cng thc khong tin cy da trn gi thit
ph thuc.
Hnh 15.3: Lng logarit- xc sut pht ha nng CO hng gi

quan st c trong mt nm ti trung tm thnh ph H Ch Minh,
trm quan trc khng kh (bi ton gi nh)
e minh chng cho phep s so sanh nay, Wayne R. Ott va Mage

a viet mot chng trnh may tnh ma viec au tien la chon loc ngay
trong nam ngau nhien va tiep theo la chon loc gi trong ngay ngau
nhien. Bang cach tiep can nay, viec oc CO moi gi trong nam co mot
c hoi nh nhau hoac c chon loc giong nhau. Moi lan mot gi rieng
biet c chon loc, no khong the c chon mot lan na, do o lay mau
364
khong co s thay the. Ho a kiem tra 4 kch thc mau khac nhau,
n=9, n=36, n=144, va n=576 cha 1000 nhom cua moi kch thc. oi
vi moi nhom cua mau ho tnh toan gia tr so hoc, do vay a ra 1000
gia tr cho nhom co kch thc la 9, 1000 gia tr cho nhom co kch thc
36 va tiep tuc. Khi ho phac hoa nhng gia tr quan sat, bang chng la
khong co ng cong thuan, s sap xep tr nen hep hn khi kch thc
mau gia tang.
Hnh 15.4: Bieu o cua nhng gia tr cua 1000 nhom cua mau co kch thc n ngau
nhien c chon loc t tap d lieu CO San Jose, theo s sap xep chuan (a): n=9, (b)
n=36, (c): n=144, (d): n=576 (nguon Wayne R. Ott va Mage), (1986)
Bang15.9: So sanh tham so d oan va tham so quan sat trong

mot nam cua nong o CO quan sat c tai San Jose (Nguon:
OH va Mgge,1986)
365
Gia tr
n
(ppm)
o lech chuan (ppm)
Thng
Quan sat c
D oan
Quan sat c
3.537
3.512
0.757
0.761
36
3.537
3.505
0.379
0.371
144
3.537
3.529
0.189
0.184
576
3.537
3.538
0.0946
0.0920
Trung bnh cua tat ca cac gia tr trong moi nhom (bang 15.9) eu gan vi
tat ca cac gia tr thng cua 3,537 ppm, c d oan bang bieu thc CLT cho
qui trnh trung bnh. Neu nhng s quan sat c oc lap, nhng bieu thc d
oan o lech chuan cua cac gia tr nh sau:
0
n
2.271
n
Khi o lech chuan c d oan bang bieu thc nay va em so sach vi

o lech chuan quan sat th thay 2 ket qua rat phu hp vi nhau. V du, oi vi
nhom kch thc 9, CLT d oan o lech chuan cua 0,757ppm va o lech
chuan quan sat c cua 1.000 gia tr la 0,761ppm
Mot cach khac e anh gia hai bien co tng ong vi nhau khong ta
phac hoa chung tren mat phang ngang va ng tuyen tnh cat thang goc giay
ke. Neu iem ket qua nam gan ng 450 tren giay nay, th chung gan bang
nhau; o la: x=y. Neu s th nghiem mau ngau nhien cua o lech chuan cua
Ott va Mage(truc y) c phac hoa ngc vi nh ly d oan CLT (truc x),
nhng iem se nam gan vi ng 450 va rat trung (hnh 15.5).
Trong hnh 15.4, ng cong eu cho s sap xep chuan a c chong
len qua bon bieu o. Gia tr va bien cua nhng s sap xep chuan c d oan
bi nh ly t CLT trong bang 15.4. Nhng ket qua nay cho thay rang, mac du
366
d lieu chat lng khong kh khong oc lap va xap x lognormal, nhng gia tr
so c ve t nhng s quan sat s dung mau ai dien cho kch thc t 9 en
576 xap x chuan va tuan theo nhng cong thc giong nhau nh CLT, o la
mot s xap x tot. e phep th at o chnh xac, ta cho kch thc mau t nho
en trung bnh, nhng cong thc c dan xuat ra cho s quan sat oc lap co
the c s dung e tnh khoang tin cay cho nhng d lieu chat lng khong
kh, ke ca khi chung khong hoa tan oc lap vi nhau.
Hnh 15.5: o lech chuan c d oan bi nh ly gii han gia (CLT) ngc vi o
lech chuan cua gia tr so cua nhom 1.000 chon loc ngau nhien cua kch thc mau n
(Nguon: Rayne R. Ott va Mage, 1997)
S trung nhau gia ket qua CLT d oan va quan sat c cung cap mot
c s cho viec tnh toan khoang tin cay ve gia tr trong trng hp gia tr va
bien c biet. S dung bien cua tram quan trac khong kh Thanh pho
Thanh pho Ho Ch Minh 1998-1999, ta co the tnh khoang tin cay cho nhng
367
gia tr khac nhau cua n (bang 15.9), s dung bieu thc bang 15.8. oi vi
n=9, gia tr quan sat se trong khoang 1.5ppm (thc te trong khoang
1,48ppm) cua gia tr thc pho bien vi p=0,95. Ch s dung 9 mau sap xep
eu nhau trong ca nam se cho ket qua la xap x 2ppm (thc te la 1,94ppm)
cua gia tr thc te vi 99% chac chan. oi vi n=36, gia tr mau se trong
khoang 1ppm (thc te trong khoang 0,97ppm) cua gia tr thc vi 99% s
chac chan. Mot mau vi kch thc 144 c bao am rang ket qua gia tr la
1/2ppm (thc te 0,49ppm) cua gia tr thc vi 99% s chac chan.
Bang 15.10: Khoang tin cay cho Nong o CO (ppm) t nhom mau cua kch
thc khac nhau, da vao d lieu San Jose
Mc tin cay
0.90
0.95
0.99
1.25
1.48
1.94
36
0.62
0.74
0.97
144
0.31
0.37
0.49
576
0.16
0.19
0.24
Nhng ket qua cho thay rang theo phng phap tren ch can dung so lng
mau e ket qua chnh xac. S chnh xac cao t kch thc mau nho nay c tao
nen bi o lech chuan cua tap hp d lieu San Jose nho mot cach tng oi. Tuy
nhien, nhng ket qua tm kiem nay ng dung vao nhng thanh pho khac th ra
sao? o la mot cau hoi.
15.7. KHAI QUAT HOA NHNG IEU KIEN MOI TRNG VAO
NHNG THANH PHO KHAC
368
Co chang mot cach e c tnh nhng khoang tin cay hep ng dung vao
nhng thanh pho khac la e so sanh vi d lieu CO Thanh pho Thanh pho
Ho Ch Minh vi tap hp d lieu t nhng thanh pho khac. e lam s so sanh
nay, ta theo phng phap Ott va Mage, phac hoa tren bieu o gia tr hang nam
va o lech chuan cua nong o CO trung bnh mot gi t 83 tram quan trac
khong kh trong 74 thanh pho (hnh 15.6). Gia tr hang nam nong o CO sap
xep t 0,9ppm thanh pho Bien Hoa en 17,5ppm Viet Tr vi gia tr trung
bnh toan bo cua tat ca cac thanh pho la 3,66ppm. o lech chuan tng ng
c sap xep t 1,0 ppm Bien Hoa en 9,5ppm Viet Tr, vi o lech chuan
trung bnh la 2,48ppm. Gia tr va o lech chuan cua nong o CO trung bnh
mot gi tai tram quan trac khong kh Thanh pho Ho Ch Minh ( x =
3,54ppm; s = 2,27ppm), do vay tng t vi gia tr va o lech chuan trung bnh
cua tat ca cac v tr quan trac cua Viet Nam
D lieu Thanh pho Thanh pho Ho Ch Minh khong nhng phai c
so sanh vi gia tr trung bnh trong ca nc ma con vi nhng gia tr tot bac.
Bieu o 15.6 ch ra rang, s sap xep cua nhng gia tr va o lech chuan do o
nhiem CO Viet Nam la tng oi nho. Neu co mot xep hang 83 o lech
chuan t nhng tram quan trac t cao nhat en thap nhat, 94% la t hn 5ppm,
84% la t hn 4ppm. S dung 5ppm nh la 94 phan tram gia tr va 4ppm nh la
84 phan tram gia tr, chung ta co the ng dung cong thc CLT (bang 15.3) e
tnh khoang tin cay ap dung cho nhng trng hp o nhiem mc cao hn.
369
Hnh 15.6. Nong o trung bnh cong hang nam (tren) va o lech chuan (di) cua CO
trong 83 thanh pho khac nhau, nam 1972 (nguon: Wayne R. Ott,1978)
Xem xet 144 mau c chon loc moi ni cua 83 v tr. Trong 86% cua
nhng trng hp nay, khoang tin cay se bang hoac t hn theo ket qua sau:
X 1.96
0
144
= X 1.96
4
= X 0.65ppm
144
Tng t, trong 94% tnh chung ca nc, khoang tin cay se bang hoac t
hn nh ket qua sau:
X 1.96
0
144
= X 1.96
5
144
= X 0.82 ppm
Nh vay, vi 100 mau, 94% v tr nhng tram quan trac nc ta se co

khoang tin cay vi gia tr bang hoac t hn 1ppm. Khoang tin cay cua mot vai
kch thc mau khac c tnh bang 15.6
370
Bang 15.11: 95% khoang tin cay cho 83 v tr quan trac moi trng cho ca
nc
86% v tr
94% v tr
(ppm CO)
(ppm CO)
2.61
3.26
36
1.31
1.63
100
0.78
0.98
144
0.65
0.82
576
0.33
0.41
T nhng ket qua tm thay, co xuat hien s chng minh cho viec s dung
so lng mau rat nho e xac nh so trung bnh cong. oi vi nhng tram quan
trac c xem xet tren, ch co 100 mau se c thch hp trong t nhat 94%
trng hp e xac nh nong o hang nam thc te vi 95% chac chan s chnh
xac thu c 1ppm ( thc te 0,98ppm). S chnh xac cao cho kch thc
mau nho nay xay ra bi v o lech chuan tai nhng tram quan trac la qua nho.
Nhng ket qua nay la rat quan trong giup ta chon gia viec chon loc nhieu
quan sat tai mot v tr n le hoac viec chon loc ch mot vai quan sat tai mot so
v tr ln. Neu nhieu v tr co the c quan trac chnh xac thch ang vi ch
mot vai mau, th thong tin khong gian ln hn trong nhng nong o o nhiem co
the c chon loc cung gia tr. Neu nhng o nhiem khac ngoai CO co o lech
chuan hang gi nho, la trng hp thng, th nhieu a phng co the c
lay mau vi mc o tin cay khiem nhng va vi s chnh xac thch hp.
Bi v nhng anh hng sc khoe oi lap cua CO thng c lien quan
en nong o cao hn xuat hien qua nhng thi han ngan, s quan tam thng
371
c hng en cao nhat la 8 gi hoac nong o trung bnh mot gi hn la gia

tr hang nam. Tuy nhien, oi vi khuynh hng nghien cu chat lng khong
kh-v du, s thay oi chat lng khong kh trc va sau khi mot ng cao toc
xuyen A c xay dng - dai han (trung bnh 6 thang hoac trung bnh hang
nam) co the la ieu quan trong hn la nong o o nhiem CO cao nhat 1 gi
hoac nong o o mc trung bnh trong 8 gi.
Simpson (2001) a ch ra rang, nhng mau c chon loc trong suot thi
gian t 8 gi sang en 5 gi chieu khong the dien ra cung mot hanh vi nh
nhng mau c chon loc trong suot thi gian ngh ngi hang ngay va v the
khong phan anh ung mc nong o trung bnh dai han. Theo nh ghi chep cua
Ott va Mage (1998) cach tiep can lay mau mong muon nhat cho xac nh mot
nong o trung bnh hang nam yeu cau la: moi ngay trong nam co mot c
hoi nh nhau c chon cho viec o ac va moi gi trong ngay co mot c hoi
nh nhau c chon la. Neu giai oan lay mau b han che t 8 gi sang en
5 gi chieu th ngi ieu tra ch co the tuyen bo rang trung bnh dai han phan
chieu oan thi gian o. Tham ch khi oan thi gian o b han che, d lieu co
the hu ch cho nhng khuynh hng xac nh, cung cap c s cho ngi ieu
tra xem xet can than oan thi gian b han che khi phat bieu hoac phat thao
nhng ket luan ve ket qua.
15.8. KHAO SAT THC A CHON MAU NGAU NHIEN

Muc ch chung ta mong muon ng dung nhng cach tiep can tren vao
viec khao sat thc a nong o o nhiem tren mot vung a ly rong ln, nh la
mot thanh pho, s dung mau ngau nhien e chon loc d lieu hp ly. Lam the
nao chung ta s dung nhng ky thuat xac suat e tnh khoang tin cay ve gia tr
tai moi a phng? D nhien chung ta co the s dung mot o lech chuan tieu
bieu t tat ca nhng thanh pho. Mot cach tiep can tot hn la ng dung s sap
372
xep t-Student c mo ta tren, cho phep quan sat chnh no e lam c s cho
o lech chuan tai moi v tr.
e ng dung s sap xep t-Student, chung ta s dung cong thc Gossett
trong cung mot hoan canh, c mo ta tren cho nhng quan sat oc lap:
P{ X t
s
n
0 X + t
s
n
}=p
ay, s la o lech chuan mau c tnh t n quan sat tai moi v tr va t

co c t s sap xep t-Student (hnh 7.2) cho n-1 o t do.
e minh hoa cach tiep can nay, Wayne R. Ott o nong o CO tai 9 v tr
San Jose, CA, bang cach i en moi ni va lay ay mot tui mau vi mot cai
bm nho xach tay. Nhng v tr lay mau (R1 en R9) c xay dng rong khap
theo hnh ch nhat bao trum mot khu vc 13 dam vuong cua thanh pho, bao
gom khu th tran va tram quan trac khong kh tai a phng. Bi v, viec lay
ay mot tui mau khoang 5 phut, nen ket qua quan sat la trung bnh 5 phut va v
the bien mau ln hn se c lay cho trung bnh mot gi. Nhng mau khoang 50 mau t moi v tr - c kien tra CO theo tieu chuan ky thuat
(Quang pho hap thu tia hong ngoai khong phan tan anh sang) trong cung ngay
chung c chon loc.
V du, tai v tr R3, 49 mau c chon loc vi gia tr x =2.9ppm va o
lech chuan quan sat c s=3.2ppm. Bang viec tham chieu ti o th sm hn
cua t-gia tr (hnh 16.2) cho n=49, chung ta oc c phan b chan cua ng
cong cho n-1=48 xap x 2.7. S dung ket qua nay va o lech chuan quan sat
c, chung ta tnh khoang tin cay 99% nh sau:
xt
s
n
= 2 .9 2 .7
3 .2
49
= 2.9 1.23 ppm
373
Neu s sap xep thong thng c s dung thay cho s sap xep tStudent, nhan to 2.58 (bang 7.3) se c dung thay cho 2.7 vi 0 = s , cho
mot khoang tin cay hep hn (c c lng di):
x 2.58
= 2.9 2.58
3 .2
49
= 2.9 1.18 ppm
Neu ca hai khoang tin cay c lam tron ti hang ch so thap phan,
nhng cau tra li se giong nhau: 2.91.2ppm. Tuy nhien, khi n tr nen nho
hn, s khac nhau gia nhng khoang tin cay s dung sap xep thong thng va
sap xep t-Student tr nen ln hn, phan anh mot s khong chac chan ln hn
ve viec s dung s nh la mot s anh gia cua 0 cho kch thc mau nho. Noi
cach khac, khi n tr nen ln hn, s sap xep t-Student tien ti gan s sap xep
thong thng en noi s sap xep thong thng co the dung nh la mot s xap
x tot cho s sap xep t-Student
S dung d lieu San Jose, Wayne R. Ott va Mage tnh khoang tin cay
cho tat ca 9 v tr lay mau dung s sap xep t-Student. 99% khoang tin cay la t
hn 1ppm cho 6 trng hp. Nh vay, co 95% chac chan rang, gia tr thc
nam trong khoang 1ppm cua gia tr quan sat c tai tat ca tr 3 v tr (R1, R3
va R4). Cuoi cung, 90% khoang tin cay la t hn 1ppm cho tat ca 9 v tr.
Bang 15.12: Khoang tin cay nong o CO o c tai 9 v tr Tp Ho Ch Minh,

tnh toan s dung s sap xep t-Student
374
Khoang tin cay
Gia tr
(ppm)
(ppm)
90%
95%
99%
V tr
R1
54
3.4
3.8
0.85
1.20
1.40
R2
53
2.8
.5
0.59
0.76
0.91
R3
49
2.9
3.2
0.80
1.00
1.20
R4
48
3.6
3.4
0.81
1.10
1.30
R5
46
2.9
2.7
0.70
0.90
1.10
R6
48
2.1
2.1
0.53
0.68
0.81
R7
48
3.0
2.2
0.56
0.71
0.85
R8
46
2.2
2.2
0.57
0.73
0.87
R9
48
3.8
2.8
0.71
0.91
1.10
15.9. MOT SO V DU THONG KE XAC SUAT MOI TRNG

Co nhieu van e ng dung thong ke xac suat trong nghien cu khoa hoc
moi trng, di ay ch la mot so gi y.
1. Tat ca cac thanh vien cua mot cong ong dan c eu ong y quyen
gop khoang 1000 moi tuan trong mot nam v mot ly do x ly s co moi
trng cho khu dan cu o. Neu 1000 ngi eu ong gop qua moi tuan va
moi mon hang co gia tr la 1000, th gia tr mong i cua viec thu nhan hang
tuan la bao nhieu? [tra li: 1000]. Gia s rang, cac nha quan ly lap bieu o
thong ke hang tuan toan bo s ong gop; thao luan tai sao s sap xep thng
xuyen nen xuat hien eu an. Gia s trc ay cho thay rang o lech chuan
cua hang ong gop y cua moi ca nhan la 1$ th o lech chuan cua viec thu
nhan hang tuan se la g? [tra li: 316200]. Gia s rang, s ong gop hang
tuan keo dai 52 tuan trong mot nam, th s sap xep tng xng cho viec thu
nhan cua mot nam la g va tham so nao nen co? [ tra li: thong thng vi gia
tr
375
= 520000 va o lech chuan = 228] Xac suat ma toan bo s thu nhan

hang nam se nam trong day hep (3 ) cua 520000 684 la g? [tra li:
0.99865-0.00135=0.9973].
2. Mot nhom cac phan t oc chat c phong thch t mot nguon chnh
at trong mot phong ln va s di chuyen cua cac phan t nay c giam sat
mot cach can than. oi vi moi s hoan v cua mot phan t ve kch thc nam
ngang, gia s rang, moi phan t giong nhau ve cach di chuyen sang trai
(nghch) hay sang phai (thuan) oi vi nguon. Neu moi phan t trai qua s
hoan v gia tang ve kch thc mot cach oc lap, th khoang cach ve chieu
ngang cua phan t o en nguon se la tong cua tat ca cac s hoan v cua no.
Neu o lech chuan cua nhng lan hoan v o la 1.5cm va moi phan t trai qua
10.000 lan hoan v, th xac suat sap xep cua khoang cach t chieu ngang cua
phan t en goc se la g? [ tra li: N(0,0.5m)
3. Mot chuyen gia chat lng nc muon anh gia nong o Chlorite
trung bnh mot con suoi trong thi han 15 ngay. Nha ieu tra lay mau con
suoi moi ngay, am bao chnh xac thi gian lay mau c phan phoi eu an
trong 24 gi e lay nhng mau cang tieu bieu cang tot. Ket qua trung bnh cua
15 mau la 460 mgCl2/l vi o lech chuan la 30mg/l. Trong bang bao cao cuoi
cung, chuyen gia nay muon ch rang, ham lng Chlorite thc te trong 15 ngay
la 460mg/l x vi o chnh xac 99%. S dung s sap xep t-Student (hnh 16.2)
e tm x.[ tra li: 23 mg/l].
4. Cac lan o SO2 trung bnh moi gi c thc hien tai mot a iem
nhat nh ma moi gi c phan phoi eu an trong 3 thang. Gia s trung bnh
75 gi c lay theo cach nay, sinh ra mot gia tr c tnh la 29 g/m3 va o
lech chuan la 11.4 g/m3. S dung s sap xep chuan t-Student, tnh gia tr
376
quan sat c cua 29 g/m3 vi khoang tin cay 99% [ tra li: 3.5 g/m3).
5. Muon o gia tr thc hang thang cua nong o tong chat l lng trong
mot phong nhng khong the quan sat moi ngay. ieu tra vien co the chon ch
12 lan quan sat trong trung bnh 24 gi, v the anh ta s dung mot bang cac con
so ngau nhien e at cac ngay thu thap mau theo mot cach ai dien trong 31
ngay. Ket qua mot gia tr quan sat c la 80.000 g/m3 vi o lech chuan
quan sat c la 1980 g/m3. Anh ta muon bao cao the nao e gia tr mau
gan vi gia tr thc vi mc o tin cay c phat bieu. [Tra li: gia tr thc
nam trong gii han 70.180 g/m3 va 89.980 g/m3 vi xac suat 0.90. Gia tr
mau nam trong gii han 67.980g/m3 va 92.180g/m3 vi xac suat 0.95].
6. Nong o CO c o gan mot ng cao toc ngoai o Thanh pho
Bien Hoa vao cac ngay trong tuan trong suot 6 thang bang cach thu thap 100
mau quan sat c lay eu an hang gi trong ngay va hang ngay trong tuan
cua tng thang. Gia tr quan sat cua 100 lan hang gi la 12.5ppm vi o lech
chuan 1.5ppm. The th nong o CO vao cac ngay trong tuan vi khoang tin
cay 95% va 99% la bao nhieu? [ tra li: 0.29ppm, 0.39ppm] Lap lai cach
tnh bang cach thay the khoang tin cay 95% va 99% vao s sap xep thong
thng (bang 15.3) va thao luan s khac biet neu co.
7. Cac so lieu NO2 hang gi c lap mot cach ngau nhien tai mot iem
quan trac khu cong nghiep Tan Bnh trong 2 tuan, cho ra 49 so lieu vi gia tr la
20.680 g/m3 va o lech chuan la 18.980 g/m3. Gia tr vi khoang tin cay
99% la bao nhieu? [tra li: 7.280 g/m3].
Cu hi:
1. Quy trnh x l thng k thng dng l g?
2. Quy trnh x l thng k thng dng cn nhng iu kin g?
3. Mc ch ca kho st thc a chn mu ngu nhin l g?
4. Thng k mi trng l g?
377
5.
6.
7.
8.
Cc yu t cn lu khi thng k mi trng l g?

trnh by dng nghin cu nh tnh trong khoa hc mi trng?
Trnh by dng nghin cu nh lng trong khoa hc mi trng?
Cc tham s no xc nh mc phn tn ca mu trong thng k
mi trng?
9. Cch xc nh tin cy trong nghin cu iu tra mi trng?
Ti liu tham kho:

NXB Gio Dc
Ch Minh. H Ch Minh.
378
CHNG 16
TM H S TNG QUAN
TRONG NGHIN CU MI TRNG
GII THIU
Nh nu phn phng php lun nghin cu (chng 2), tng
quan gia cc thnh phn mi trng, n biu hin cu trc h mi trng,
n chi phi s pht trin, s thoi ho ca mi trng. V vy, phn tch,
nh gi mc tng quan 2 hay nhiu chiu trong trong h mi trng
(environmental system) l v cng quan trng.
16.1. T L TNG QUAN
Trong nghin cu mi trng, biu din mc tng quan gia 2
dy s lin tc ca 2 i lng, v d tng quan gia cht c trong t v
s lng cy b cht, ngi ta tnh t l tng quan gia chng.
Vy, t l tng quan l t s biu hin cng tng tc gia 2
thnh phn mi trng vi nhau. T l tng quan ch cho bit mc
tng quan ch khng ni ln chiu hng ca mi lin h .
Nhng mun bit gia 2 thnh phn mi trng y c tng quan
khng ta phi tnh qua cng thc
K hiu t l tng quan l:
Qy Qy / x
Qy
0 1
Trong :
m
fi
fi
Q y = (Y yi y ) v Q y = y yi y / x
y =1 U =1
378
i =1 j =1
Vi: fi l tn s quan st mi t ca bin x
y l tr s trung bnh chung ca bin y

y /x l s bnh qun c iu kin ca bin y ng vi mt tr s xc
nh ca bin x.
16.2. PHN TCH TNG QUAN HAI CHIU
16.2.1. Khi nim
Trong thc t cc thnh phn mi trng, v d thnh phn nc k
hiu l X, t k hiu Y, vic quan st X th d dng v n gin hn Y, cn
vic quan st i lng Y s kh khn hn hoc thm ch khng quan st
c. Tuy nhin X v Y c mi lin h vi nhau. Ngi ta mun tm ra mi
lin h . Chng hn, khi bit nc b nhim kim loi nng ri, cn d
on xem t c phi b nhim cha v nhim nh th no? C phi
chng nhim nc l t t hay ngc li? Mun vy, chng ta phi lm
mt php th. Php th l tm h s tng quan gia 2 dy s hng ca 2
i lng nhim t v nhim nc. Vic lm gi l php phn tch
tng quan. Vy, phn tch tng quan l php o lng lin kt gia
cc thay i trong mt bin (gi l bin ph thuc) vi cc thay i trong
mt bin khc (gi l bin c lp).
c trng cho i lng tng quan hay tnh tng quan, cc nh

thng k a ra mt tr s o lng s ph thuc tng quan , gi
l h s tng quan ( k hiu l r).
H s tng quan ca Y vi X c vit l r x,y
16.2.2. Mt s th d n gin tnh h s tng quan

Th d 1: Xc nh h s tng quan gia nng kim loi nng Hg
trong nc v kim loi nng trong sinh khi ca c, cn c vo cc s liu
o trn 6 mu o sau y.
Bng 16.1. Lit k 2 dy s liu nng Hg trong nc v trong sinh khi c
379
Mu th nghim
Nng Hg trong nc (x)

(ppm)
Nng Hg trong c (y)

(ppm)
366
60
II
372
70
III
378
80
IV
383
90
389
100
VI
392
110
Bc 1: Tnh x v y
x =
xi
n
x=
36,6 + 37,2 + 37,8 + 38,3 + 38,9 + 39,2

= 38
6
y=
yi
n
60 + 70 + 80 + 90 + 100 + 110
= 85
6
Bc 2: Lp bng tnh ton di y c th xc nh r bng mt

trong hai cng thc:
a/ Cng thc 1
r=
( x i x )( y i y )
n x y
(I)
b/ Cng thc 2
r=
380
( xi x)( y i y )
( x i x ) 2 ( y i y ) 2
(II)
Bng 16.2: Tnh hai tng bnh phng sai s ca dy s liu

xi
yi
366
372
378
383
60
70
80
90
-1,4
-0,8
-0,2
0,3
1,96
0,64
0,04
0,09
-25
-15
-5
5
625
225
25
25
35
12
1
1,5
389
392
100
110
0,9
1,2
0,81
1,44
15
25
225
625
13,5
30
= 1750
= 93
(x i x) (x i x )
(y i y ) (y i y )
= 5,00
(xi i x )( y i
x = x2 =
( x i x) 2
=
n
y = y2 =
( y i y ) 2
1750
=
= 291,6 = 17,07
n
6
y)
5
= 0,83 = 0,91
6
Bc 3: Tnh r theo cng thc I:

r=
r=
( xi x)( y i y )
93
15,5
=
=
n x y
6 0,91 17,07 0,91 17,07
15 ,5
1
15 ,53
Bc 4: Tra bng tnh sn, vi n trong th d ca ta bng 6, ta c R

bng l 0,7423
V | r | > gi tr R trong bng tnh sn: 0,7423
Ta ni hai i lng X (hm lng Hg trong nc) v Y (hm
lng Hg trong sinh khi c sng trong nc ) tng quan cht ch
vi nhau.
Gi tr r > 0 ta ni rng gia hai i lng ny tng quan thun
vi nhau, ngha l khi nng Hg trong nc tng th hm lng Hg
trong sinh khi c cng tng theo.
381
T hai nhn xt trn ta i n kt lun

Bc 5: Kt lun
C s tng quan thun v cht ch gia nng Hg trong nc
tng th hm lng Hg trong sinh khi c sng trong mi trng nc .
Bc 6: Biu din h s tng quan bng th:
S tng quan ny l tng quan hi quy tuyn tnh v c biu
trng bng phng trnh
y = ax + b
Chng ta c th tra bng phn mm Excel trong my tnh l c
ngay ng biu din ny.
Th d 2
Tnh tng quan gia hm lng tch ly Cd2+ trong mi trng
nc v trong mm la (L Huy B, L Nguyn Dim Hng, 2004).
Bng 16.3. Tch ly Cd trong mm la theo nng Cd trong mi trng nc
382
STT
Cd trong nc
cd mm la (mg/kg)
i chng
NT1:0,01 ppm
NT2: 0,3 ppm
1,4
NT3: 1 ppm
4,5
NT4: 3 ppm
16,2
NT5: 9 ppm
43,6
NT6: 30 ppm
88,0
NT7: 100 ppm
241,7
S tch luy Cd 2+ trong mam lua

Cd mam lua
mg Cd/kg kho
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
C 0.01 0.3
30 100
Nong o (ppm)
Cch tnh:
Bc 1: Tnh x v y
x =
=
y =
=
xi
n
0 + 0,01 + 0,3 + 1 + 3 + 9 + 30 + 100
= 17,9138
8
yi
n
0 + 0 + 1,4 + 4,5 + 16,2 + 43,6 + 88,0 + 241,7
= 49,425
8
383
Bc 2: Lp bng tnh ton di y c th xc nh r bng

mt trong hai cng thc :
a/ Cng thc 1
r=
( x i x )( y i y )
n x y
(I)
b/ Cng thc 2
r=
( xi x)( y i y )
( x i x ) 2 ( y i y ) 2
(II)

(1)
(2)
xi
yi
(x i x)
(x i x )
0,0
-17,9138
0,01 0,0
0,30 1,4
(3)
2
(4)
(5)
2
(y i y )
(y i y )
(x i x )( y i
y)
320,9042
-49,425
2442,8306
885,3871
-17,9038
320,5461
-49,425
2442,8306
884,8928
-17,6138
310,2460
-48,025
2306,4006
845,9003
4,5
-16,9138
286,0766
-44,925
2018,2556
759,8502
16,2 -14,9138
222,4214
-33,225
1103,9006
495,5093
43,6
-8,9138
79,4558
-5,825
33,9306
51,9226
30
88,0 12,0862
146,0762
38,575
1488,0306
466,2271
100 241,7 82,0862
6738,1442
192,275
36969,6756
15783,1337
= 8423,8706
384
= 48805,8550 = 20172,8233
x = x2 =
y = y2 =
( x i x) 2
=
n
8423,8706
= 1052,9838 = 32,4497
8
( y i y ) 2
48805,8550
=
= 6100,7319 = 78,1072
n
8
Bc 3: Tnh r theo cng thc (I):

r=
( xi x)( yi y)
20172,8233
20172,8233
=
=
= 0,9949
n x y
8 32,4497 78,1072 20276,4417

bng l: R0,99=0,7646
V | r | = 0,9949 > gi tr R (vi n=8,) trong bng tnh sn
Ta ni hai i lng X (hm lng Cd trong nc) v Y (hm lng Cd
tch lu trong mm la) tng quan cht ch vi nhau.
Gi tr r > 0 chng t rng gia hai i lng ny tng quan thun
vi nhau, ngha l khi nng Cd trong nc tng th hm lng Cd tch
lu trong mm la cng tng theo.
T hai nhn xt trn ta i n kt lun
Bc 5: Kt lun
Hm lng Cd2+ tch ly trong mm la t l thun vi hm

lng Cd2+ c trong nc (dung dch th nghim).
Bc 6: Biu din h s tng quan bng th
S tng quan ny l tng quan hi quy tuyn tnh v c biu
trng bng phng trnh : y = ax+b
Qua phn tch tng quan tuyn tnh n vi bin ph thuc l hm
lng tch ly kim loi trong mm, bin c lp l nng v mi lin h
gia kh nng tch ly KLN trong mm vi nng KLN l tng quan
385
thun, cht trong gii hn nng Cd2+ trong nc t 0,01 n 100ppm v

c biu din qua phng trnh y = 2,3947x +6,5266
Th d 3:
(Xin trch th d ca Nguyn Vn L, 2001)
Ngi ta gi thuyt ln m cng to, nng th s con sinh ra trong
mt th h cng ln. Bn hy th xem c s tng quan khng, cn
c vo cc s liu thc t sau (gi x l trng lng ca ln m, y l s
con sinh ra).
x
53kg
60
63
67
67
69
70
74
75
78
7 con
12
13
10
11
17
13
18
Bc 1. Tnh x v y
x=
xi 685
=
= 68,5kg 68
n
10
y=
y i 108
=
= 10,8kg 11
n
10
Bc 2. Lp bng tnh ton di y c th tnh r bng cng

thc II
386
( xi x) 2 ( y i y ) ( y i y ) 2 (x i x) ( y i y )
xi
yi
(x i x)
53
-15
125
-4
16
60
60
-8
64
-3
24
63
-5
25
-2
10
67
12
-1
-1
67
13
-1
-2
69
10
-1
-1
70
11
74
17
36
36
36
75
13
49
14
78
19
361
-3
-57
= 84
= 83
= 685 = 108
= 667
Bc 3: Tnh r bng cng thc II
r=
r=
( xi x)( y i y )
( x x ) 2 ( y i y ) 2
83
667 84
0,35

bng l 0,7423
V | r |: > gi tr R trong bng tnh sn : 0,7423
Ta ni hai i ln X (hm lng Hg trong nc) v Y (hm lng
Hg trong sinh khi c sng trong nc ) tng quan cht ch vi nhau.
Gi tr r > 0 ta ni rng gia hai i lng ny tng quan thun vi
nhau, ngha l khi nng Hg trong nc tng th hm lng Hg trong sinh
khi c cng tng theo.
T hai nhn xt trn ta i n kt lun.
Bc 5: Kt lun
Gia s ln con sinh ra v trng lng ca ln m c tng quan
thun v s tng quan ny l nh.
* Kim nh thng k: Ta phi thc hin mt kim nh thng k
xem xt s ph thuc tng quan c phi mang tnh ngu nhin hay
khong.
387
B1 - Gi thuyt khng H 0 .
H 0 : Khng c tng quan gia mc bn VLXD v li tc c nhn,
v y r = 0
H 1 : C tng quan, vy H 1 : r 0
B2 Chn kim nh:
Kim nh ph hp l kim nh t Student
B3 Mc ngha : Chn mc = 0,05
B4 Tm tr s ti hn bng cch tra bng t Student (ph lc C) vi n

2 = 8 t do v = 0,05 .
Quy tc quyt nh: Nu t kd < t ti hn ta chp nhn H 0 ngc li ta
chp nhn H 1
Tra bng ta tm c t = 2,306
B5 Tnh s thng k kim nh theo cng thc sau :

t kd =
r n 2 0,897 10 2
=
= 5,72
1 r2
1 (0,897) 2
t kd = 5,72 > 2,306 do ta bc b gi thuyt H 0 v chp nhn H 1 ,

c ngha l v mt thng k, chng t s ph thuc tng quan gia mc
bn vt liu xy dng v li tc c nhn.
16.2.3. Cng thc Spearman

Gi s ta phi tnh s tng quan gia trnh vt l vi trnh
ton ca hc sinh theo bng s liu thc t sau :
388
Bng 16.6: Lit k dy s liu v phn nhm

Hc sinh
im ton
im l
Xp hng on
Xp hng l
A1
12,6
8,4
A2
10,0
9,2
A3
9,2
11,4
A4
8,4
10,2
A5
14,2
13,0
A6
16,0
12,0
n=6
Spearman ngh cng thc sau :
r = 1
6d 2
n(n 2 1)
n : s trng hp nghin cu,

d : hiu s gia 2 hng xi v y i . Ta hy xy dng bng s tnh r
theo cng thc Spearman.
Bng 16.7: Bng s liu tnh ton sau khi xp hng

Hc
sinh
im Ton
Xp
hng
im L
A1
12,6
8,4
A2
10,0
A3
9,2
A4
Xp
d i = xi y i
d12
-3
9,2
-1
11,4
8,4
10,2
A5
14,2
13,0
A6
16,0
12,0
-1
n=6
hng
= 20
389
d 2 = 20
n(n2 1) = 6 (62 1) = 6 (36 1)
r = 1
6 20
120
4
= 1
= 1
35 6
210
7
r = 0,428
Nhn xt : Qua cc s liu trn ta thy c s tng quan thun v nh
gia trnh vt l vi trnh ton ca hc sinh.
16.3. PHN TCH TNG QUAN HM S HAI CHIU

16.3.1. Bi ton
Trong qu trnh x l s liu thu c nghin c, qu trnh phn tch
tng quan gia cc yu t mi trng biu hin cng lin kt th phn
tch hi quy li xc nh quan h gia cc bin dng phng trnh m theo
, thng qua mt bin ta c th d on bin khc.
Phng trnh biu din tng quan 2 bin gi l phng trnh hi quy.
Nu th ca hm hi quy l ng thng th hm hi quy c gi
l tuyn tnh.
th ca n c cc dng khc th hm hi quy c gi l phi tuyn tnh.
mc ny, chng ti ch gii thiu mt loi hm s tng quan (hay

hm hi quy) tuyn tnh c dng.
Y= AX + B
Ta tnh a v b theo hai cng thc sau :
390
B=
Y A X
n
A=
n XY ( X )( Y )
n X 2 ( X ) 2
Da vo bng s liu th d trn, ta c :

A=
(10)(222.127) (290)(6.273)
= 16,02 (Ngun: Hng)
(10)(10.920) (290) 2
B=
6.273 (16,02)(290)
= 162,7 163
10
Vy phng trnh tng quan l:
Yx = 16,02 X + 163
Th d (Ngun: Nguyn Vn L, 2001)

Quan st cao ch vit ca cc nh gio gii trong nhng lp hc
ghp thc hin cc cc ging ng to nh khc nhau, ngi ta thy rng
nu di ca ging ng ln hn di ca lp hc bnh thng l x mt
th cao ch vit y ca nh gio li tng ln. Hy tnh h s tng quan r
gia y v x, v tm hm s tng quan ca y i vi x, gi thuyt rng l
hm tuyn tnh y= ax + b.
Ta c bng iu tra s liu thc t sau:
Bng 16.8: Thng k s liu tnh tch v tng bnh phng ca hai dy s hng
Gio vin
Xm
Y cm
XY
X2
Y2
16
20
16
25
36
36
36
56
64
49
10
80
100
64
12
108
144
81
14
10
140
196
100
16
11
176
256
121
18
12
216
324
144
10
20
13
260
400
169
391
10
110
85
1.100
1540
805
( X ) 2
( Y ) 2
XY
X2
Y 2
12.100
7.225
Ta th tnh h s tng quan v tm ra hm tng quan tuyn tnh

gia x v y theo cc cng thc :
n xy ( x)( y )
r=
[n y 2 ( x) 2 ][n y 2 ( y ) 2 ]
A=
n xy ( x)( y )
n x 2 ( x) 2
B=
y ax
n
10.(1.100) (110)(85)
r=
[10(1540) 12.100][10(805) 7.225]

1650
2.722.500
1650
=1
1650
A=
10(1.100) 110(85) 1650 10

=
=
= 0,5
10.(1540) 12.100 3300 20
B=
85 0,5(110) 30
=
=3
10
10
V y :
H s tng quan gia cao ch vit ca gio vin vi di ca

ging ng (d ra so vi di 6m) l bng 1.
Phng trnh tng quan tuyn tnh l
y = 5,5 x + 3 (cm).
392
16.3.2. Dng chng trnh Tool - Rata Analysis - Rigression trong

phn mm Excel 5.0 th hin tng quan hai chiu
Ngy nay, nh c cc cng c phn mm, my tnh h tr, gip c
lc cc nh nghin cu vi chnh xc cao. Mt trong cc cng c l
Chng trnh Tool - Data Analysis - Rigriession trong phn mm Excel 5.0
th hin tng quan hai chiu.
Sau y xin trch gii thiu
Trong phn mm Excel 5.0 ngi ta lp trnh bi ton
y = ax + b theo lin h hi quy tuyn tnh hai chiu v nhiu chiu.
Trnh t thc hin nh sau:
Bc 1: Chn Menu Tools trn thanh cng c chun.
Bc 2: Chn Data Analysis trong hp thoi Tools.
Bc 3: Trong hp thoi Analysis Tools chn Regression v bm OK
Bc 4: Trong hp thoi Regression chn:
- Input:
Input Y Range: khai khi d liu cho bin ph thuc Y
Input X Range: khai khi d liu cho bin c lp X
- Output Options:
Output Range: khai min xut kt qu ca tng quan
- Bm OK.
Kt qu tnh s c xut ra vng k khai (Output Range)
V d: Bi ton, thng qua chng trnh Tool - Data Analysis Regression, lp phng trnh hi quy v xc nh mc lin tng quan
gia nng nhim Cd trong t (Dt) v Cd trong nc (D 1-3 ) ti khu
cng nghip L Minh Xun ca 10 cp s liu tng ng. Mun vy, trc
ht ta lp bng thng k di y. (Phng theo Nguyn Hi Tut - Ng Kim
Khi, 1996).
393
Trong bng 16.9,

- Ct A (T A2 n A11) l cc tr s ng knh tn (Dt =Y).
- Ct B (T B2 n B11) l cc tr s ng knh ngang ngc (D1.3 =X ).
- Khi A12 n H29 l kt qu tnh hi quy tuyn tnh mt lp.
Trong :
Regression Statistic:
Multiple R : h S tng quan.
R Square: h s tng quan bnh phng.
Standard Error: sai s ca h s tng quan ( Sr)
Observations: dung lng quan st (n)
ANOVA: Phn tch phng sai hi quy:
Sum Square of Regression (SS): Tng bnh phng cc hiu sai gia cc tr
s l lun ca phng trnh hi quy vi tr s trung bnh chung ca bin ph thuc
Y :
y y
Mean Square of Regression (MS): Trung bnh ca tng bnh phng cc

hiu sai gia cc tr s l lun ca phng trnh hi quy vi tr s trung bnh chung
ca bin ph thuc
Y :
y y
/ df
vi df l bc t do tng ng (degree of freedom).

Sum Square of Residual (SS): Tng bnh phng cc hiu sai gia cc tr s
quan st ca phng trnh hi quy vi tr s trung bnh chung ca bin ph thuc
Y :
y y
* Trong , Cc k hiu v quy nh nn nh:

Mean Square of Residual (MS): Trung bnh ca tng bnh phng cc hiu
sai gia cc tr s quan st ca bin Y so vi tr s l lun ca phng trnh hi quy
394
Y :
y y
/df
vi df l bc t do tng ng.
F l t s ca Mean Square of Regression vi Mean Square of Residual.
Coefficients of Intercept: L h s t do a.
Coefficients of X Variable 1: L h s hi quy b.
Standard Error of Intercep: Sai s ca h s t do a (Sa).
Standard Error of X Variable 1: Sai s ca h s hi quy b (Sb).
t- Stat of Intercept: Tiu chun t kim tra s tn ti ca tham s a (ta).
t- Stat of X Variable 1: Tiu chun t kim tra s tn ti ca h s hi quy b (tb).
P- Value: Mc ngha ca cc tiu chun kim tra s tn ti ca cc tham s.
Lower 95% v Upper 95%: L cc cn di v cn trn ca khong c
lng i vi cc tham s a v b ng vi tin cy 95% hay mc ngha 5%.
Nh vy phng trnh hi quy tuyn tnh 1 lp biu th quan h gia ng
knh tn (Dt) vi ng knh ngang ngc (D1..3) l:
Dt = -2.945054 + 0.67861178*D1.3
Ch : Ngoi vic s dng trng trnh Tools Data Analysis - Regression
trong Excel cn c th khai thc cc phn mm Quattro Pro for Windows hay
Lotus 1-2-3 trong Menu Help nghin cu v phn tch mi lin h gia cc i
lng.
V d:
Trnh t cc bc phn tch hi quy bng phng trnh Lotus 1-2-3
Bc 1: Np s liu vo bng tnh Excel theo cp (x v y).
Bc 2: Chn Menu Help.
Bc 3: Chn Lotus 1-2-3
Bc 4: Chn Data v OK.
395
Bc 5: Chn Regression v OK.

Chn x- range: Chn khi d liu cho bin c lp x v OK.
Chn y- range: Chn khi d liu cho bin ph thuc y v OK.
Chn output range: Chn khi xut kt qu v OK.
Bc 6: Chn GO v OK.
Trnh t cc bc phn tch hi quy bng chng trnh Quattro Pro for
Windows nh sau:
Bc 1: Np s liu vo bng tnh Quattro theo cp (x v y).
Bc 2: Chn Tools trn thanh thc n.
Bc 3: Chn Advanced Math trong hp thoi Tools.
Bc 4: Chn Regression trong hp thoi Advanced Math.
Bc 5: Trong hp thoi Linear Regression chn:
Independent: K khai khi d liu cho bin c lp( x).
Dependent: K khai khi d liu cho bin ph thuc (y).
Output: K khai vng xut kt qu ca tng quan.
Bc 6: Chn OK.
16.4. PHN TCH TNG QUAN NHIU CHIU

Trong nghin cu mi trng, cc mi lin h khng ch 2 chiu m
c th 3 hay nhiu chiu. V d trong mi trng sinh thi t nhin ca mt
vng lun c 3 yu t: t - nc - sinh vt v c con ngi na lun tc
ng qua li. Mt ch th c khi nhn ng thi 3,4 ... tc ng. biu t
quan h ny, ton thng k c cch tnh tng quan 3 chiu.
Mt cch tnh 3 chiu c cng nhn nhng phi gi thit rng, 1
trong 3 yu t ng yn, 2 yu t cn li bin thin.
Hay ta c th coi tng quan 2 chiu l tng quan cp 1, v 3 chiu
cp 2. Mun tnh h s tng quan cp 2 trc ht phi tnh h s tng
quan cp 1.
396
tnh cc h s tng quan ring cp 1 ta cn cc h s tng quan

ring cp 0 tc h s tng quan cp bit, c th l cc h s r12 , r13 , r23 .
H s tng quan phc xt quan h gia mt bin vi 2 bin cn li.
V d R1.23 cho bit tc ng ca bin 1 l mt bn vi bn kia l tng
quan ca 2 bin 2 v 3. tnh cn h s tng quan ring cp 0 v cp 1.
kim nh tin cy ca cc h s tng quan ny cng dng tiu

chun t hoc F.
tnh r12 , r13 v r23 ta quy c cc ch s 1,2,3 ng X 1 , X 2 v Y.
y vai tr cc bin l nh nhau nn khi s dng cc cng thc ta s hon v
vng quanh theo ch s. T cng thc :
(X
rxy =
(X
X )(Yi Y )
X ) 2 x (Yi Y ) 2
xy
X Y
2
SPxy
SC x xSC y
ta s dng bin qui tm v biu din theo ch s c:
x x
x . x
1 2
r12 =
2
1
2
2
; r13 =
x x
x . x
1 3
2
1
2
3
; r23 =
x x
x . x
2
2
2
2
3
v cui cng l tnh cc h tng quan ring cp 1 (R...):

R12.3 =
r12 r13 .r23

(1 r132 )(1 r232 )
R13.2 =
; R23.1 =
r23 r21 .r31

(1 r212 )(1 r312 )
r13 r12 .r32

(1 r122 )(1 r322 )
+ Tnh cc R... v kim nh:
R1.23 = 1 (1 r122 )(1 R132 .2 )

2
R2.13 = 1 (1 r232 )(1 R21
..3 )
397
R3.12 = 1 (1 r312 )(1 R322 .1 )

Trong cc R... ta s ch n R3.12 l h s tng quan phc coi bin
1 v 2 nh bin c lp ca mt bn v bin 3 l bin c lp ca bn kia,
thc cht l quan h gia 2 nhm bin Y v X 1 X 2 ca bi ton hi quy
ang xt.
Tiu chun F y c tnh theo cng thc:
FTN =
R2
n p 1
x
2
p
1 R
vi R l h s tng quan phc, n l s b bin s, p l s bin c tch

thnh nhm c lp ring.
Mt cch tng qut, ngi ta tnh tng quan nhiu chiu (hay nhiu
lp) trong quan h mi trng qua Phng trnh hi quy tuyn tnh :
Phng trnh hi quy tuyn tnh nhiu lp trong tng th c dng:
Y = A0 + A1X1 + A2X2 + . . .+ AkXk.
V c dng:
y = a 0 = a1 x1 + a 2 x 2 + ... + a k x k
xc nh cc tham s ca phng trnh hi quy (a0, a1, a2.. . ., ak) v

mc lin h gia cc i lng (R h s tng quan kp) c th dng
mt trong 3 phng php nh trnh by i vi lin h tuyn tnh mt
lp, tuy nhin phng php phn tch hi quy tuyn tnh kp thng qua tng
bin ng c phc tp, nn chng ti tp trung trnh by 2 phng php sau
(Trch: X l kt qu thng k kt qu nghin cu thc nghim trong nng
lm nghip trn my tnh ca Nguyn Hi Tut - Ng Kim Khi, NXB
Nng nghip, 1996 t trang 88-91).
16.4.1. Phng php dng chng trnh Tools - Data AnalysisRegression
Trong phn mm Excel 5.0 c chng trnh xc lp hi quy tuyn
tnh nhiu lp, vic khai thc cc chng trnh ci sn ny cng trn
398
nguyn tc tng t nh i vi vic xc lp hi quy tuyn tnh mt lp,

ch khc l, trong hi quy tuyn tnh nhiu lp, bin Y khng ch ph
thuc vo mt bin c lp X, m cn ph thuc k bin c lp khc ( X1,
X2, . . ., XK), v th phi ch ti vic k khai cc khi d liu cho bin c
lp X1,X2, . . ., Xk.
V d: Gi s quan h gia chiu cao vt ngn (Hvn) vi ng knh

ngang ngc cy rng c dng: Hvn= a0 + a1D1.3+ a2D1.32. Hy xc lp quan
h ny theo ti liu bng 17.9 sau:
Trnh t thc hin nh sau:
Bc 1: Chn Menu Tools trn thanh cng c chun.
Bc 2: Chn Data Analysis trong hp thoi Tools.
Bc 3: Trong hp thoi Analysis Tools chn Regression v bm OK.
Bc 4: Trong hp thoi Regression chn:
- Input:
* Input Y Range: Khai khi d liu cho bin ph thuc Y.
* In put X Range: Khai khi d liu cho cc bin c lp X1 v X2. . .
- Output Options:
* Output Range: Khai min xut kt qu ca tng quan.
- Bm OK.
Kt qu tnh tng quan s c xut ra vng k khai (Output Range).
Trong bng 17.9, cc k hiu cng nh cc ch tiu thng k c gii
thch nh i vi hi quy tuyn tnh 1 lp. Ch khc l, trong hi quy tuyn
tnh 2 lp c 3 tham s cn xc nh (a0, a1, a2) v th trong cc B30
(Intercept), B31(X Variable 1) v B32 (X Vareable 2) l kt qu bng s ca
3 tham s ny. Cc C30, C31 v C32 l cc sai s (Standard Error) ca cc
tham s a0, a1, a2. Cc D30, D31 v D32 l cc tr s t ca tiu chun Student
399
kim tra s tn ti ca cc tham s a0, a1, a2 vi cc xc sut nh tng ng

( E30, E31 v E32 ). Cc F30, F31, F32 v G30, G31, G32 l gii hn di v
gii hn trn ca khong c lng cc tham s A0, A1 v A2 trong tng th
vi mc ngha 5,05.
16.4.2 Phng php ma trn

xc nh cc tham s ca phng trnh hi quy tuyn tnh 2 hay
nhiu lp v mc lin h gia chng bng phng php ma trn cn qua
cc bc sau:
-
Bc 1: Np s liu vo bng tnh theo cp y, x1,x2,. . .
- Bc 2: Lp thm mt s ct. Nu hi quy tuyn tnh l 2 lp th lp

thm cc ct: y2, x12, x22, y.x1, y.x2 v x1.x2.
- Bc 3: Tnh cc tng
y, x1 , x 2 , y 2 , x12 , x 22 , yx1 , yx 2 v x1 x 2
- Bc 4: Lp cc ma trn:
y
D1 = yx1
yx 2
- Bc 5: o ngc ma trn D2. Kt qu o ngc ma trn D2 c
ma trn o ngc D2-1.
- Bc 6: Nhn ma trn o ngc D2-1 vi ma trn D1 s c ma
trn kt qu 1 ct 3 hng, chnh l cc tham s a0, a1, a1, a2 ca tng
quan tuyn tnh hai lp.
thc hin php o ngc v nhn ma trn ny, c gi em quy

trnh 5.4.
V d: Xc lp tng quan Hvn = a0 + a1D1.3 + a2D1.32 bng phng
php ma trn theo ti liu o m 11 cy thng ti Ni Lut i hc Lm
nghip (Ti liu bng 5.4).
400
Bang
401
402
403
404
405
Phng trnh hi quy lp c l:

Hvn = 2.88205 0.6712.D1.3 + 0.09629.D1.32
- Bc 7: Tnh h s tng quan kp v kim tra s tn ti ca h s
tng quan kp:
H s tng quan kp c xc nh bng cng thc:
Qy
R = 1
Qy
2
(5.24)
Trong : Q y = ( y i y ) 2 vi y = a0 + a1x1 + a2x2
Qy = ( y i y ) 2 vi y l tr s trung bnh ca bin y.

kim tra sai s tn ti ca h s tng quan kp, dng tiu chun F
ca Fisher sau y:
F=
R2
n3
*
2
2
1 R
(5.25)
Nu F tnh theo (5.25) F05 tra bng vi hai bc t do k1 = 3 v k2 =

n-2 th h s tng quan kp khng tn ti.
Ngc li nu F tnh theo (5.25)> F05 tra bng vi k1 = 3 v k2 = n-2
th h s tng quan kp tht s tn ti.
V d: Cng vi ti liu 5.5 sau khi lp c phng trnh hi quy

tuyn tnh 2 lp (vi X1 = D1.3 v X2 = D1.32), c th xc nh c h s
tng quan kp (R) theo cng thc (5.24).
406
Bng 16.12: Xc nh h s tng quan kp (R)

A
Hvn(y)
X1
X2
y//
(y-ytb)^2
(y-y//)^2
2,5
6,6
43,56
2,646522
2,47348
0,021469
2,9
6,9
47,61
2,835137
1,375296
0,004207
3,4
7,5
56,25
3,264363
0,452566
0,018398
3,6
7,8
60,84
3,504974
0,223474
0,00903
3,9
8,1
65,61
3,762917
0,029836
0,018792
8,6
73,96
4,231338
0,00529
0,053517
4,2
8,8
77,44
4,432188
0,016198
0,053911
4,7
81
4,64074
0,393468
0,003512
10
4,8
9,3
86,49
4,968012
0,528922
0,028228
11
5,3
9,4
88,36
5,080954
1,506192
0,047981
12
5,5
9,7
94,09
5,431336
2,0371
0,004715
13
4,072727
9,041818
0,263759
14
F = 117,9479
15
R^2 = 0,970829
16
R = 0,985307
Trong bng 16.12:
Cc ct A, B v C nh bng 16.5 (y, x1, x2).

Ct D ( t D2 n D12 ) l tr s l lun chiu cao vt ngn, c
xc nh t phng trnh
y// = Hvn// = 2.88205 0.6712.D1.3 + 0.09629.D1.32.
407
Ct E (t E2 n E12) l bnh phng cc h sai (yI ytb)2 vi yI

l cc tr s chiu cao thc nghim v ytb l chiu cao bnh qun:
y = ytb = 4.072727 (m) ( A13).
Ct F (t F2 n F12 ) l bnh phng cc hiu sai (yI y//)2, vi y//

l cc tr s l lun chiu cao vt ngn.
E13 l tng bnh qun cc hiu sai: ( yi y) 2 , chnh l Qy.
F13 l tng bnh phng cc hiu sai: ( yi y// ) 2 , hay Q y

C15 l kt qu tnh h s tng quan kp bnh phng
R = 0.970829.
2
C16 l h s tng quan kp R = 0.985307. Nh vy, quan h

gia chiu cao vi ng knh ngang ngc cy rng dng tng quan kp l
rt cht ch.
F15 l kt qu kim tra s tn ti ca h s tng quan kp bng tiu
chun F ca Fisher (theo5.25), v F tnh ln hn rt nhiu so vi F05(k1=3,k2=9) tra
bng nn h s tng kp tht s tn ti.
16.5. GII THIU MT S PHN MM X L THNG K
16.5.1. ng dng phn mm MSTATC x l s liu v tnh ton
thng k
1. Cch s dng MSTATC
MSTATC l mt phn mm vi tnh thng k trong cc th nghim,
gip cho vic x l s liu v tnh ton thng k mt cch nhanh chng v
chnh xc.
Khi s dng MSTATC phi thng qua cc bc sau y:
Bc 1: Lp tp tin nhp s liu cho MSTATC

Bc 2: Sp xp v m ha s liu th nghim theo cch x l ca
MSTATC
408
Bc 3: Thc hin trong MSTATC

* FILES:
- Make: To tp tin mi - t tn cho tp tin

- Open: M mt tp tin c sn
- Path: Ch ng dn cho tp tin
* SEDIT:
- To cu trc tp tin
- Khai bin
- Nhp liu cho tp tin d liu
- Sa cha tp tin d liu
Sau khi nhp liu xong ty theo kiu th nghim m ta chn mt trong
nhng phn x l s liu sau:
1. ACSERIES
11. CONFIG
21. FREQ
31. NEIGHBOR
41. SEDIT
2. ADDON
12. CONTRAST
22. GROUPIT
32. NONORTHO
42. SELECT
3. ANOVA-1
13. CORR
23. HIERARCH
33. NONPARAM
43. SORT
4. ANOVA-2
14. CROSSTAB
24. HOTELLIN
34. PLOT
44. STABIL
5. ANOVALAT
15. CURVES
25. LATINSQ
35. PRINCOMP
45. STAT
6. ASCII
16. DIALLEL
26. LP
36. PRLIST
46. TABLES
7. ASEDIT
17. ECON
27. MEAN
37. PROBABIL
47. TABTRANS
8. BRSERIES
18. EXPSERIES
28. MISVALEST
38. PROBIT
48. TRANSPOS
9. CALC
19. FACTOR
29. MULTIDIS
39. RANGE
49. T-TEST
10. CHISQR
20. FILES
30. MULTIREG
40. REGR
50. VARSERIES
Sau khi x l s liu khng kt qu s c xut ra di dng trang

menu con ca menu PRINT:
409
* PRINT:
- View: xem kt qu
- Edit: xem v sa kt qu c
- Save to disk: lu kt qu vo a
- Print output: in kt qu ra giy.
* STOP
2. nh gi kt qu cc b tr th nghim
* Bng kt qu ANOVA
Gi thit thng k p dng trong cc b tr th nghim: C s khc bit
gia cc nghim thc ca th nghim.
Sau khi x l bng MSTATC bng kt qu phn tch bin lng
ANOVA cho php nh gi gia cc nghim thc ca th nghim sai bit c
ngha hay khng, da vo ct Prob (F) tnh, c th nh sau:
+ Nu h s Prob (F)tnh > 0,05 (Ftnh < Fbng 0,05): bc b gi thit,
hay ni cch khc s sai bit gia cc nghim thc ca th nghim khng c
ngha. (K hiu F ns ).
+ Nu 0,01 < Prob (F)tnh < 0,05 (Fbng 0,01 > Ftnh > Fbng 0,05):
chp nhn gi thit mc ngha 0.05; hay ni cch khc, s sai bit gia cc
nghim thc ca th nghim c ngha mc 0.05 (F*)
+ Nu Prob (F)tnh < 0,01 (Ftnh > Fbng 0,01): chp nhn gi thit
mc ngha 0,01 hay ni cch khc, s sai bit gia cc nghim thc ca
th nghim rt c ngha (F**).
Gi tr Prob (F)tnh ch cho bit s sai bit gia cc nghim thc ca
th nghim c ngha hay khng. Nu mun bit chi tit s khc bit gia
cc nghim thc th chng ta phi dng trc nghim LSD hoc Duncan
phn hng chng, t nh gi kt qu th nghim chi tit hn.
410
* Trc nghim phn hng LSD hoc DUNCAN

+ S dng trc nghim LSD (Least Significant Difference Test):
- Khi so snh nghim thc i chng vi tng nghim thc khc.

- Khi so snh gia cc nghim thc (i vi nghim thc c ti a l 5
nghim thc).
+ S dng trc nghim Duncan (Duncanl's Multiple Range Test):
- Khi so snh gia cc nghim thc (i vi th nghim c s nghim

thc >=6).
Trn bng kt qu trc nghim phn hng, gi tr trung bnh ca cc
nghim thc c xp hng theo k t (A,B...) nhng gi tr trung bnh no
c t nht mt k t ging nhau th s khc bit gia chng khng c
ngha ( mc ngha tng ng)
V d: Trc nghim phn hng gia 4 nghim thc ca th nghim

c nh du phn hng nh sau:
Mean 1 = 245 A
Mean 4 = 235 AB
Mean 2 = 215 B
Mean 3 = 198 C
Nhn xt:
- Gia Mean 1, Mean 2 v Mean 3 c s khc bit
- Mean 4 khng khc bit so vi Mean 1 v Mean 2
- Mean 4 khc bit vi Mean 3
3. Phn tch thng k kt qu th nghim theo cc kiu b tr th nghim

Ty theo kiu b tr th nghim m MSTATC c phng php phn
tch thng k khc nhau (tham kho thm ti liu Gii thiu MSTATC ca
Nguyn Vn Phc).
411
16.5.2. ng dng Phn mm SPSS x l v phn tch d kin

nghin cu
SPSS l mt phn mm qun l c s d liu v x l thng k
chuyn nghip, linh hot, a nng v c s dng rng ri ti nhiu trng
i hc, vin nghin cu v cc cng ty trn th gii. Hin nay, SPSS ang
dn tr nn ph bin Vit Nam bi ng dng ca n: kho st phn phi
cc (bin) d liu (descriptive analysis) v v cc biu , th, kim nh
so snh cc tr trung bnh (z-test and t-test), phn tch phng sai (analysis
of variance - ANOVA), nghin cu lin h tng quan v hi quy
(correlation and regression), nghin cu quan h gia cc bin nh tnh
(cross-tab and Chi-square), kim nh phn phi, kim nh phi tham s
(non-parametric tests)
Cng ging nh phn mm MSTATC ty theo yu cu ca ngi x
l s liu m la chn menu cho ph hp. Sau y xin gii thiu mt v d
v s dng SPSS nh gi phiu iu tra cht thi rn y t.
Bc 1: Khi ng SPSS (ty theo ci t ca ngi s dng)

Bc 2: Khai bo bin
khai bo bin ta click i vo cc var bn trn cc field. Khi click

i vo s xut hin bng hi thoi sau:
+ Variable name: tn bin (ti a l 8 k t)
+ Type: kiu bin, c 8 loi:
- Numeric: kiu s
Width: rng bin
Decimal places: s sau du phy
- Comma: kiu chm
- Dot: kiu du phy
- Scientific nonation: kiu s khoa hc
412
- Date: kiu ngy thng

- Dollar: kiu ng la
- Custom currency: kiu tin t
- String: kiu chui
Characters: rng ca chui
+ Labels: khai bo nhn ca bin
- Variable Label: tn nhn ca bin (tn ca bin nhng c vit di
hn)
- Value Labels: gn nhn gi tr
+ Missing Values: gi tr khuyt
+ Column Format: format ca bin
- Column width: rng ca column
Bc 3: Xc nh cc bin cn khai bo (theo v d)
- Tn n v
- a ch
- Loi hnh hot ng
- Tng s cn b cng nhn vin
- Bc s
- Y t, h l, h sinh
- S ging bnh
- Tng s bnh nhn khm
- Bnh nhn ni tr
- Bnh nhn ngoi tr
413
- Khi lng rc sinh hot

- Khi lng rc y t
- Khi lng rc bnh phm
- Khi lng rc kim tim, v thuc, dy dch truyn
- Khi lng rc bng, bng gc
- Khi lng rc y t loi khc
- X l rc sinh hot
- X l rc y t
- D kin thu gom trong tng lai
Bc 4: xc nh cc yu cu cn gii quyt
- Mc rc thi y t hin nay ca cc loi hnh y t

- Mi quan h gia khi lng rc y t vi s bnh nhn ni tr v
ngoi tr
- Mi quan h gia rc sinh hot v rc y t
- D bo khi lng rc y t trn a bn th x trong tng lai
- D bo khi lng rc bnh phm trn a bn th x trong tng lai
- Vn phn loi rc y t ti ngun
- Vn x l rc y t
Bc 5:
5.1. Xt 1 bin n
- Xt 1 bin n thc cht l xt tn sut xut hin (s ln hin din)

ca cc gi tr ging nhau ca bin .
- xt 1 bin n: Statistics\ Summatize\ Frequencies
414
- Chn bin C phn loi rc y t khng

- Click OK chy kt qu
5.2. Xt quan h gia 2 bin nh tnh
- S dng bng phn t kt hp CROSSTABS

- xt quan h gia 2 bin nh tnh: Statistics\ Summatize\ Crosstabs
- Click nt Statistics
- Chn Phi and Cramer s V
- Click nt Continue
- Click nt OK chy kt qu
5.3. Xt quan h gia hai bin nh lng
- S dng phng php: hi quy tng quan MULTYPLE

REGRESSION
- Xt quan h gia hai bin nh lng: Statistics\ Regression\ Linear
- Chn bin
- Click OK chy kt qu
5.4 Xt quan h gia mt bin nh lng v 1 bin nh tnh
- S dng phng php: phn tch phng sai 1 yu t ONEWAY

ANOVA
- xt quan h gia 1 bin nh lng v 1 bin nh tnh:
Statistics\ Compare Means\ One-Way ANOVA
- Chn bin
Click OK chy kt qu
Cu hi:
1. T l tng quan l g?
415
2.
3.
4.
5.
Phn tch tng quan l g ?

Cn bao nhiu bc trong bi ton tm h s tng quan ?
Nu mt s phn mm thng dng dng x l thng k ?
Cch s dng phn mm MSTATC trong x l s liu v tnh ton
thng k nh th no ?
6. Nu cc bc phn tch hi quy bng phng trnh Lotus 1-2-3 ?
7. Nu trnh t cc bc phn tch hi quy bng chng trnh Quattro
Pro for Windows ?
8. Phng php ma trn dng trong phn tch tng quan nhiu chiu
c s dng nh th no ?
9. Phng php dng chng trnh Tools Data Analysis Regression
trong phn tch tng quan nhiu chiu c s dng nh th no ?
10. Dng chng trnh Tools Data Analysis Rigression trong phn
mm Excel 5.0 th hin tng quan hai chiu nh th no?
Ti liu tham kho:

NXB Gio Dc
Ch Minh. H Ch Minh.
416
Bng 16.9: Bng tnh tng quan tuyn tnh hai chiu gia Dt v D1.3
A
Dt(y)
D1,3(x)
2,5
7,6
2,8
8,8
8,9
3,4
9,3
3,7
9,7
10,6
4,5
11
4,9
11,8
10
5,2
11,9
11
5,7
12,3
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0,9841783
R Square
0,9686069
401
AdjustedR
0,9646827
Square
Standard
0,2031892
Error
Observations
10
ANOVA
df
SS
MS
Significanc
Ef
Regression
10,19071
10,19071
Residual
0,330286
0,041286
Total
10,521
Coefficients
Standard
t Sat
246083
2,69E-07
P- Value
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
Error
Lower
Upper
95000%
95,000%
Intercept
-2,945054
0,44481
-6,621
0,000166
-3,97079
-1,91932
-3,97079
-1,9193
X Variable 1
0,6786118
0,043194
15,711
2,69E-07
0,579
0,7782
0,579
0,77822
402
Bng 16.10: Xc lp tng quan tuyn tnh 2 (chiu) lp gia Hvn vi D1

A
Hvn(y)
X1
X2
2,5
6,6
43,56
2,9
6,9
47,61
3,4
7,5
56,25
3,6
7,8
60,84
3,9
8,1
65,61
8,6
73,96
4,2
8,8
77,44
4,7
81
10
4,8
9,3
86,49
11
5,3
9,4
88,36
12
5,5
9,7
94,09
13
44,8
91,7
775,21
14
SUMMARY OUTPUT
15
403
16
Regression Statistics
17
Multiple R
0,9853065
18
R Square
0,970829
19
AdjustedR Square0,9635362
20
Standard Error
0,1815762
21
Observation
11
22
23
ANOVA
24
df
SS
MS
F
133,1223
25
Regression
8,778059
4,389029
26
Residual
0,2637592
0,03297
27
Total
10
9,0418182
Significance F
7,24E-07
28
29
Coefficients Standard Error
t- Stat
P- value
Lower 95% Upper 95%
30
Intercept
2,8821348
4,2796566
0,67345
0,519639
-6,986777
12,751
31
X Variable 1
-0,671171
1,0609491
-0,63261
0,544639
-3,117725
1,77538
32
X Variable 2
0,0962873
0,0649612
1,482228
0,176562
-0,053514
0,24609
404
Bng 16.11: Xc lp tng quan Hvn = a0 + a1D1.3 + a2D1.32 bng ma trn (viX1 = D1.3 v X2 = D1.32)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
A
Hvn(y)
2,5
2,9
3,4
3,6
3,9
4
4,2
4,7
4,8
5,3
5,5
44,8
B
C
X1
X2
6,6 43,56
6,9 47,61
7,5 56,25
7,8 60,84
8,1 65,61
8,6 73,96
8,8 77,44
9
81
9,3 86,49
9,4 88,36
9,7 94,09
91,7 775,21
44,8
D1 = 383,15
3315,865
a0 = 2,88205
a1 = -0,6712
a2 = =0,09629
D
Y^2
6,25
8,41
11,56
12,96
15,21
16
17,64
22,09
23,04
28,09
30,25
191,5
E
X1^2
43,56
47,61
56,25
60,84
65,61
73,96
77,44
81
86,49
88,36
94,09
775,21
F
X2^2
1897,474
2266,712
3164,063
3701,506
4304,672
5470,082
5996,954
6561
7480,52
7807,49
8852,928
57503,4
G
yx1
16,5
20,01
25,5
28,08
31,59
34,4
36,96
42,3
44,64
49,82
53,35
383,15
H
yx2
108,9
138,069
191,25
219,024
255,879
259,84
325,248
380,7
415,152
468,308
517,495
3315,87
D2 =
11
91,7
775,21
91,7
775,21
6638,02
775,21
6638,02
57503,4
555,5136 -137,489
D2^(-1)= -137,4889 34,1402
8,382347 -2,08753
8,38235
-2,08753
0,12799
I
x1x2
287,496
328,509
421,875
474,552
531,441
636,056
681,472
729
804,357
830,584
912,673
6638,02
405
Chng 17
CCH BIU DIN D LIU

KT QU NGHIN CU
17.1. GII THIEU
Cng ging nh cc ngnh khoa hc khc, ngnh khoa hc mi
trng, sinh hc c th biu din d liu kt qu nghin cu thng qua cc
cch sau:
a/ Bng biu:
Cu trc
Nhng kiu bng
Nhng kiu phn trm
b/ th:
416
Biu
Biu thanh
Biu thanh chng khng hon ton
Biu thanh chng 100%
a gic tn s
a gic tn s tch ly
Trnh by theo thn v l cy (biu nhnh)
Biu nan qut
S hng hoc ng cong khuynh hng (ng cong xp x)
Biu vng
Biu scatter (X,Y)
Biu din bng cc on vecter
Khi phn tch d liu xong, nhim v tip theo ca bn l s phi

gii thiu mt cch hiu qu nhng kt qu nghin cu c ti ngi
c. Mc ch chnh ca vic s dng k thut trnh by d liu l lm cho
kt qu nghin cu tr nn r rng v d hiu. C nhiu cch gii thiu
thng tin. Vic chn phng php c th cn phi c xc nh, trc ht
bi n tng hay kin thc ca bn ph hp vi s hiu bit r ca c gi
v ch v vic nghin cu v nhng thng tin c thng k. Nu c
gi ca bn quen thuc vi vic c d liu, th bn c th s dng nhng
phng php trnh by phc tp (bin ha); nu khng th tt nht l dng
cch n gin. Mc du c nhiu cch trnh by d liu, chng ny gii
hn nhng phng php ph bin. Cng xin lu rng, ngy nay c
nhiu chng trnh my tnh c th h tr bn thc hin cng vic ny.
Bn hy li dng ti a im ny cch trnh by ca bn hay p v d
hiu hn
17.2. BIU DIN BNG BNG BIU
17.2.1 Cu trc
Bng biu l phng php ph bin nht ca vic trnh by d liu
phn tch. "Bng biu cho ta cng c hu dng gii thiu mt lng ln
thng tin chi tit trong mt khng gin nh". (The Chicago Manual of Style
1992: 321). Bi vy, tht cn thit i vi nhng ngi mi bt u bit v
cu trc v nhng kiu biu din bng biu.
1. Tn bng biu - thng mang tnh thng bo s liu ca bng v m t
kiu d liu m n cha ng. Tht quan trng khi bn cn n s liu th
bng s cung cp cho bn lc xem xt v bn lun v d liu. Bng cn phi
c nh s th t trong khi chng xut hin trong vn bn. Vic nh s
th t cho bng l ty bn. Nu bn ang vit mt mc (bi bo), vic xc
nh bng n gin bi con s l tt ri. Trong trng hp vit mt lun vn
hoc mt bo co, c mt cch xc nh mt bng l s chng i theo
s th t lin tc ca bng trong chng quyn sch ny c thc hin
nh th. Li th chnh ca th tc ny l cn thit thm hoc xa mt bng
417
trong lc xem li bo co, s th t ca bng ch cho tng chng, hn l

cho ton b bo co, khi cn thay i. V d, bng s liu chng 3 v s
th t ca bng ny l th ta nh s: Bng 3.2 (v tip theo l tn bng).
Tn bng thng c pha trn ca bng.
S m t i cng s liu ca bng phi c xc nh r rng trong
ni dung ca bng . S m t xc nh cc bin v nhng thng tin c
cha ng trong bng, cho v d, "ngi cung cp tin c phn loi theo
tui" hoc "nhng thi v vic khai thc ct ven sng ng Nai". Nu
mt bng cha ng thng tin v hai bin, th bin ph thuc cn phi c
xc nh trc trong tiu . Cho v d, nhng thi khc nhau v vic
khai thc ct ven sng ng Nai (bin ph thuc) bi ngi dn ven sng
ng Nai v ngi cn ct xy dng thnh ph Bin Ha (bin c lp).
2. Mu Nhng phm tr con ca mt bin, lit k dc theo trc Y
(ct bn tri ca bng). Theo McGraw - Hill Style Manual (1983: 97),
Mu, thng thng l ct u tin bn tri, lit k nhng mc m nhng
thng tin v n c cung cp trong nhng hng ngang i sang phi".
The Chicago Manual of Style (1992: 331) m t Mu nh sau: "... mt
ng thng ng lit k nhng mc hoc nhng c nhn m nhng thng
tin v chng c ghi theo ct ca bng ".
3. u hoc nhng tiu ct l nhng phm tr con ca
mt bin, lit k dc theo trc honh (trc X) (nh ca bng). Trong nhng
bng mt bin u thng thng l s th t ca nhng ngi cung cp
tin v / hoc Phn trm ca nhng ngi cung cp tin". Trong nhng
bng hai bin, nhng phm tr con ca mt trong nhng bin c trnh by
trong nhng ct u.
4. Phn thn bng nhng cha ng d liu phn tch.
5. Nhng ghi ch b sung hoc nhng li ch thch - C bn kiu ghi
ch pha di ca bng: nhng ghi ch ngun; nhng ghi ch chung chung
khc; nhng ghi ch trn phn xc nh ca bng; v nhng ghi ch trn
mc kh nng xut hin (xc sut) (The Chicago Manual of Style: 333).
418
Nu d liu c ly t ngun khc, th bn c mt trch nhim tha nhn

iu ny. Ngun cn phi c xc nh y bng, v gn nhn bi t
"Ngun". Tng t, nhng ghi ch gii thch khc nn c ghi thm
pha di chn bng.
17.2.2. Nhng kiu bng
Ph thuc vo s bin khong thng tin c trnh by, cc bng c
th c phn loi bng mt bin v bng hai bin. Bng mt bin cha
ng thng tin v mt bin, v d, Bng 17.1 Tnh hnh dch bnh mi
trng cc i phng ma ma 2005 Vit Nam, cn gi Bng tn s ";
bng hai bin cha ng thng tin v hai bin, v d Bng 17.3 Thi ca
qun chng v vic khai thc ct trn sng ng Nai), cng gi Bng
cho"; hoc nhiu bin (cha ng thng tin v hn hai bin, v d, Bng
17.4: Nng tn d thuc tr su trong t nc v tc ng ca chng
ln cc loi ng vt thn mm trong t.
17.2.3. Nhng kiu phn trm
Kh nng gii thch d liu ng n v truyn t nhng kt qu
tm kim c hiu qu l nhng k nng quan trng cho mt nh nghin cu.
gii thch c hiu qu v chnh xc ca d liu, bn c th cn tnh ton
nhng s o c khc nhau nh l phn trm, phn trm tch ly, hoc t l.
Tht quan trng l bn xem xt v quyt nh vo lc no l hp l nht
p dng nhng th tc thng k vo d liu. Vic dng phn trm l mt th
tc ph bin trong s gii thch d liu. C ba kiu phn trm: "hng", "ct"
v "tng s". Tht quan trng hiu s thch hp, s gii thch v ngha
ca mi kiu ny. Hy xem vi v d sau:
Bng 17.1 v d trn l bng mt bin hoc nhng bng tn s.
Trong bt k bng mt bin no, phn trm tnh ton tm quan trng ca
mi phm tr con ca bin khng vt ra mt s khng i (100). Mt bng
nh vy ch ra con s mong i t 100 ngi cung cp tin. Phn trm trong
bng mt bin ng vai tr quan trng hn khi hai hoc nhiu hn mu hoc
s ngi ang c so snh. Trong khi ton b s ngi cung cp tin trong
419
mi mu hoc nhm ngi thay i, phn trm cho php bn tiu chun
ha chng tng phn vi mt s c nh (100). S tiu chun ha ny
tng phn vi 100 v cho php bn so snh tm quan trng ca hai nhm
ngi bn trong nhng phm tr con khc nhau ca mt bin.
Trong mt bng cho nh Bng 17.3, phm tr ca c hai bin xem
xt quan h ca chng vi nhau. Lm cho bng ny t dy c hn, chng ta
c th b nhng phm tr khng cn thit. Cho nhng bng nh vy bn c
th tnh ton ra ba kiu phn trm khc nhau: hng, ct v tng s.
- Phn trm hng - tnh ton t tng s ca tt c cc phm tr ca mt
bin c trnh by dc theo mt hng trong nhng ct khc nhau, trong
quan h ch mt phm tr con ca bin khc. Cho v d, trong Bng 17.3 s
trong du ngoc n c nh du (a) l phn trm hng vt ra ngoi
tng s phm tr tui ca bin tui (16) lin h duy nht phm tr ca bin
th hai (nhng ngi c thi tn thnh vic khai thc ct ven sng ng
Nai). Trong trng hp khc, mt phm tr ca bin trnh by trn mu
(stub) bi tt c nhng phm tr ca bin trnh by u ca mt bng.
Vt ra ngoi nhng ngi c thi khng tn thnh vic khai thc ct
ven sng ng Nai, 21.4 % di 25 tui, tui 55 th khng phi v phn
ln (42.9 %) ri vo khong t 25 34 tui (Bng 17.3). Do vy phn trm
hng ny cho bn s bin i tui gia nhng ngi c thi khng tn
thnh vic khai thc ct ven sng ng Nai. iu ny cho thy rng 56
ngi cung cp tin khng c thi tn thnh vic khai thc ct ven sng
ng Nai l nhng ngi c tui khc nhau. Tng t, bn c th la
chn nhng phm tr khc ca bin (thi v vic khai thc ct ven sng
ng Nai) kho st s bin i ca n lin h ti bin khc, chng hn
nh tui.
420
Bng 17.3: Thi khc nhau ca cng ng i vi vic Khai thc ct ven
sng ng Nai
Thi ca
qun chng
ng h mnh m
Tui
<25
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
(0.0)*
(5.5)
(14.8)
(35.0)
(100.0)
(12.5)
Tn thnh
(0.0)*
(8.3)
(18.5)
(20.0)
(0.0)
12
(0.0)
(25.0)
(41.7)
(33.3)
(0.0)
(100.0)
Khng chc chn
(0.0)*
(0.0)
(7.4)
(20.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
(33.3)
(66.7)
(0.0)
(100.0)
Khng ng tnh
(14.3)*
(19.4)
(3.7)
(0.0)
(0.0)
10
(20.0)
(70.7)
(10.0)
(0.0)
(0.0)
(100.0)
Rt khng ng tnh
(85.7)*
(66.7)
(55.6)
(25.0)
(0.0)
12
24
15
56
(21.4)
(42.9)
(26.8)
(8.9)
(0.0)
(100.00)
Tng cng
(100.0)* (100.0)
(100.0)
14
36
(25.0)
27
(43.6)
16
(0.0)
Tng cng
(18.6)
(100.0) (100.0)
20
(100.0)@
(100.0)
100
(*=Ct phn trm; @=hng phn trm)
421
Bng 17.4: Thi ngi dn xt theo tui i v gii tnh

i vi vic khai thc ct ven sng ng Nai
S lng v i tng c phng vn
Thi i vi vic
khai thc ct
Tui
<25
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
Tng cng
Nu Na Nu Na Nu Na Nu Na Nu Na Nu Na
ng tnh mnh m
12
16
ng tnh
12
Khng chc chn
Khng ng tnh
10
Phn i mnh
17
31 25
56
Tng cng
23 13 16 11 12
59 41 100
Phn trm Ct - cng cch , bn c th gi tui mt mc

khng thay i v kho st nhng s bin i thi . Cho v d, hy ngh
rng bn mun tm ra s khc nhau v thi gia 25 -34 tui v vic khai
thc ct ven sng ng Nai. Phm tr tui 25 - 34 (Ct) ch ra rng, c 36
ngi, 24 ngi c thi tn thnh vic khai thc ct ven sng ng Nai
(66,7 %) trong khi ch (5,5 %) ngi c thi tn thnh vic khai thc ct
ven sng ng Nai. Bn cng c th lm cch nh th bi vic chn bt k
phm tr no ca bin tui, kho st s khc nhau i vi nhng kha
cnh nhng phm tr khc nhau nhng bin khc (nhng thi v vic o
m urani).
Tng phn trm - tiu chun ha tm quan trng ca mi m cho
phn trm ca tng ngi cung cp tin, h c phn loi trong nhng
phm tr ca mt bin lin h ti bin khc. V d, bao nhiu phn trm
nhng ngi di 25 tui v c thi khng tn thnh vic khai thc ct
ven sng ng Nai trong tng s ngi?
422
C th phn loi (sp xp) d liu ba bin. Bng 16.4 (phn trm
cha c cho thy) kho st thi ca nhng ngi cung cp tin phn
loi theo tui v phi nam/n ca h. Trong khi bn thm nhiu bin hn
vo mt bng n tr thnh phc tp c v kh hn gii thch nhng
cch gii thch n l cng tng t nh th.
Li gii thiu ca bin th ba, gii tnh, gip bn tm ra s lin kt
nh th no gia hai phm tr ca hai hoc hn s bin , tui v thi ,
th phn b v gii tnh. Trong trng hp khc, n gip bn tm ra
bao nhiu nam v n cu thnh mt c th cho thy s kt hp gia hai
bin khc nhau. V d, Bng 17.4 ch ra nhng ngi c thi khng tn
thnh vic khai thc ct ven sng ng Nai, 24 ngi trong tui 25 -34
(42.9%). Nhm ny bao gm 17 n (70.8 %) v 7 nam (29.2 %). T y,
bng ch ra rng, t l n ln hn nam trong tui 25 34 khng tn thnh
vic khai thc ct ven sng ng Nai. Tng t, bn c th chn bt k hai
phm tr ca tui v thi v lin h chng ti phm tr gii tnh
(nam/n) ca bin th ba.
17.3. BIU DIN QUA TH
D liu thng k khng ch yu cu phn tch cn thn m cn cn
trnh by cho li cun, d hiu v d truyn t hn. Mt trong nhng la
chn bn cn lm l gii thiu thng tin hiu qu nht bng cch lp bng,
th, hay vn bn. Mc tiu chnh ca th l gii thiu d liu bn trong
mt cch d hiu v gii thch, v th v khi xem. Quyt nh ca bn khi s
dng mt th cn phi c t c s ch yu trn s xem xt ny. Mt
th da trn bng d liu mt cch trn vn v bi vy khng th c
chuyn l bn li khng xem k bng. Tuy nhin, s trnh by bng th
thng lm cho d nhn thy nhng c tnh thch hp mt tp hp d liu",
(Minium 1978: 45).
th c th c xy dng cho mi kiu d liu - nh lng v
nh tnh - v cho bt k kiu bin (o c quan trc mi trng, th t,
khong hoc quy m t l no gia cc bin ca mi trng). C nhiu kiu
423
th khc nhau v quyt nh ca bn s dng mt kiu nht nh cn

phi da trn c s ca t l o c s dng khi bn dng php o no bn
phi gii thch ngn gn (km theo). Tht khng khc thng khi tm thy
nhng ngi hiu sai v kt lun sai c bn th v bn v v h khng
ch ti t l o c s dng trong php o mt bin.
Khi xy dng bt k dng th, tht quan trng khi lm quen vi
nhng im sau:
- S biu din th c xy dng lin quan ti nhng trc ta :
ngang v ng. Trc ngang c gi trc honh", thng thng gi l trc
X, v trc thng ng c gi "trc tung", thng thng gi l trc Y.
- Nu th c thit k ch trnh by mt bin, th thng khng
cn thit, gii thiu nhng phm tr ca bin dc theo trc X v tn s
hoc nhng con s ca phm tr nm trn trc Y. im l ni cc trc
giao nhau, c xem im zr ch cho trc Y. Khi mt th gii thiu
hai bin, im zero c ghi trn mi trc v ni chng ct ngang c xem
nh im bt u hoc im zr.
- th ging bng ch cn phi c tiu m t ni dung ca
n. Cc trc cng cn phi c t tn. Tn th thng t pha di,
nhng cng phi c khi t pha trn.
- th cn phi c v vi mt t l thch hp. Tht quan trng
chn mt t l m cho php th ca bn cn i (khng qu nh cng
khng qu ln), v vic bn chn t l cho mi trc khc nhau lm cho cc
trc khng khp nhau. i khi, ph hp t l trn mt hoc c hai trc,
th cn phi gin t l v bo ng bi vic gii thiu mt nt t (thng
thng l hai ng xin song song) trn cc trc.
- Nh cp, kiu th m bn chn ph thuc vo kiu d liu
bn ang trnh by. Cho nhng bin phm tr bn c th ch xy dng
nhng biu thanh (bar chart), biu hoc biu nan qut, trong khi
thm vo nhng bin lin tc, hng hoc nhng th xp x cng c th
424
c xy dng. S bin c hin th trn th cng quan trng trong vic

xc nh kiu th m bn c th xy dng.
17.4. TH HIN BNG BIU (HISTOGRAM)
biu th kt qu nghin cu mt cch d hiu ngi ta cng c th
dng biu nhiu loi khc nhau:
Loi biu cng c th gm mt dy nhng hnh ch nht v k tip
nhau m khng c bt k khng gian no gia chng, tng ci i din tn
s ca mt phm tr hoc vi phm tr (Hnh 17.2). Chiu cao ca nhng
hnh ch nht biu th tn s tuyt i hay t l ti tn s m chng i din.
Chiu cao ca nhng hnh ch nht c th i din tn s tuyt i hoc t
l hoc phn trm ca tng. Nh c cp, mt biu c th c v
cho c nhng bin lin tc ln nhng bin phm tr. Khi gii thch mt biu
bn cn xem xt liu c phi n ang biu din cho bin lin tc hay bin
phm tr.
Thi v vic khai thc ct ven sng
ng Nai theo tui ca dn trong cng ng
Hnh 17.1a: Biu hai chiu
425
Thi v vic khai thc ct ven sng ng Nai theo

tui ca ngi dn trong cng ng
(D liu gi thuyt Bng 16.1)
Hnh 17.1b: Biu ba chiu

Thi v vic khai thc ct ven sng ng Nai
(D liu gi thuyt bng 17.4)
Tui ca ngi cung cp tin (ngi tr li cu hi)
Hnh 17.1c: Biu hai chiu vi hai bin
426
17.4.1. Biu thanh (the bar chart)

Biu thanh hoc s c s dng trnh by d liu phm
tr. Mt biu thanh cng ging vi mt biu bnh thng, ch c
iu trong biu thanh nhng hnh ch nht i din nhiu tn s khc
nhau, nhng tn s ny c cch nhau, nh vy ch ra rng, d liu l
mt phm tr. Biu thanh c s dng cho nhng bin o trn danh
ngha hoc nhng t l th t. Nhng phm tr ring bit th thng
thng c trnh by dc theo trc X v s hoc phn trm c biu
din trn trc Y. Tuy nhin, khi minh ha, c th trnh by nhng phm
tr ring bit dc theo trc Y. Biu thanh l mt cch trnh by hiu
qu, trc quan ng vai tr quan trng ca mi phm tr ca mt bin.
17.4.2. Biu thanh chng khng kht
Biu thanh chng cng tng t vi mt biu thanh bnh
thng, ch c iu biu thanh chng c mi thanh hin th hai hoc
nhiu bin c chng ln nhau thng ng (Hnh 17.2). Khu vc ca mt
thanh hin th t l ca nhng bin m chng i din c lin h vi nhau.
Biu thanh chng c th ch c v cho d liu phm tr.
Thi v vic khai thc ct trn sng ng Nai, gii tnh
Hnh 17.2: Biu thanh chng
427
17.4.3 Biu thanh chng 100%

Biu thanh 100% tng t vi mt biu thanh chng khng
kht. S khc bit duy nht l Biu thanh 100% l mt thanh c th cha
phm tr con ca mt bin c tng l 100% v mi thanh c chia t l
lin h n t l tng 100%.
Thi v vic khai thc ct trn sng ng Nai thao gii tnh (d liu gi thuyt)
Hnh 17.3: th phn trm
17.4.4. a gic tn s
a gic tn s cng l dng mt biu . Mt a gic tn s th c
v bi vic giao nhau ti im chnh gia mi hnh ch nht ti chiu cao
ng vi tn s khong khng gian gia nhng hnh ch nht . Mt vn
trong vic xy dng a gic tn s l phi lm g vi hai phm tr ti cc
tr. em ng a gic v trc X, tng tng rng hai phm tr cc tr
428
c khong khng gian tng ng phn cn li v gi thit tn s trong

nhng phm tr ny l zr. T im chnh gia ca nhng khong ny, bn
m rng ng a gic n ct trc X. a gic c th c v bng cch s
dng hoc tn s tuyt i hoc tn s t l.
Hnh 17.4: a gic tn s
17.4.5. a gic tn s tch ly

a gic tn s tch ly hoc ng cong tn s tch ly c v trn
c s nhng tn s tch ly. S khc nhau chnh gia mt a gic tn s v
mt a gic tn s tch ly l a gic tn s c v bi vic giao nhau
chnh gia ch ca nhng khong, trong khi a gic tn s tch ly c v
bi vic giao nhau im kt thc ca nhng khong; bi v, nhng tn s
tch ly gii thch d liu trong quan h ti gii hn trn ca mt khong.
Trong khi mt phn phi tn s tch ly cho bn bit s ln quan st t hn
hn mt gi tr cho v thng thng da trn d liu nhm, gii thch
mt phn phi tn s, gii hn trn cn c xc nh.
429
Hnh 17.5. a gic tn s tch ly
17.4.6. Trnh by d liu theo thn cy v l cy

Trnh by d liu kt qu nghin cu theo thn cy v l cy l mt
cch trnh by mt phn phi tn s n gin, c hiu qu, v nhanh. Thn
cy v l cy cho mt phn phi tn s gp hai ch s c phc ha bi
vic trnh by nhng ch s 0 ti 9 bn tri trc Y, i din tens (ca) mt
tn s. Nhng hnh biu din nhng n v ca mt tn s, hnh bn phi
ca hai tn s ch s, c biu din bn phi trc Y. Ch rng, trnh by
theo thn cy v l cy khng c s dng nhm d liu nh nhng tn s
tuyt i. Nu vic trnh by c quay 90o theo ngc chiu kim ng h,
n tr thnh l mt biu . Vi k thut ny vi thng tin thng k miu t
lin quan n phn phi tn s, nh phng tin, kiu v trung tuyn, c th
d dng c xc nhn, tuy nhin, th tc tnh ton ca chng ngoi phm
vi ca quyn sch ny. Trnh by theo thn cy v l cy cng c th cho tn
s thc hin vi ba hoc bn ch s (100s and 1000s).
430
17.4.7. Biu nan qut (hay ct bnh)

Biu nan qut l cch biu din d liu bng th, thi gian hay
tng hp khi y xem nh mt vng trn. C 3600 trong mt vng trn,
v vy vng trn y c th s dng biu din 100%, hoc tng s
ngi hoc ng vt, s vt cht, vt th. Vng trn hoc nan qut c
phn chia nhng khu vc trong tha thun vi tm quan trng ca mi
phm tr, v vy mi lt t l vi kch thc ca mi phm tr ca mt phn
phi tn s. Nhng t l c th cho thy hoc nhng s tuyt i hoc nhng
phn trm. Thc hin bng tay, nhng biu nan qut th kh v hn
th khc bi v kh khn trong vic o ca nan qut/vng trn. Chng c
th c v cho c d liu nh tnh ln nhng bin o trn mt t l lin tc
nhng c nhm vo nhng phm tr.
17.4.8. S hng hoc ng cong khuynh hng
V d, bn c th dng mt s hng minh ha nhng khuynh
hng v t l s sinh hoc nhng nhp cht, v nhng s thay i trong
kch thc dn c, hoc trong a dng sinh hc, cc qun th trong qun x.
Ko di trong thng (ngun. Ranjit,1996)
Hnh 17.6: Biu ng hay ng cong khuynh hng
431
17.4.9. Biu vng

Nu ta cho nhng bin biu din trn mt khong hoc mt t l, th
thng tin v nhng phm tr ca mt bin cng c th c mt trong dng
biu vng. N c phc ha cng cch nh mt s hng vi vng
di mi hng lm ni bt s to ln ca phm tr trong mi quan h vi
nhng phm tr khc. Nh vy, mt biu vng trnh by vng di
ng cong quan h ti nhng phm tr ca mt bin. Cho v d, Hnh 17.7
cho thy s ngi cung cp tin nam hay n theo tui.
Hnh 17.7: Biu vng (ngun: Ranjit Kuma, 1996)
432
17.5. PHNG PHP H S NG NH HNG

Cc yu t mi trng lun nh hng qua li v to ra mt kt qu nht
nh. Ngi ta c th biu din s tc ng theo nhng on thng theo
phng chiu v ln ca chng. Nguyn Hi Tut v Ng Kim Khi (1996Sch dn), vit kh k v vn ny. Di y xin trch gii thiu:
Hnh 17.8: Biu Scatter
17.5.1. Khi nim v h s ng nh hng

Nhng qu trnh cn c nghin cu l nhm mc ch biu th mt
cch khi qut tt c nhng quan h nhn qu di hnh thc m hnh nh sau:
B
Y
Hnh 17.9: M hnh ch mi quan h nhn qu gia nguyn nhn
(A v B) v kt qu Y
433
Nhng mi tn ch hng nh hng ca nhng nguyn nhn gi l

nhng ng nh hng. c th nh hng c nh hng ca nhng
nguyn nhn theo mt ng nh hng th mi ng nh hng c gn
cho mt h s gi l h s ng nh hng (Path Coefficent). Trong hnh
17.9 quan h gia A v Y c nh lng qua h s PYA trong mi quan
h nh hng theo ng A(B(Y; v PYB trong mi nh hng theo cc
ng B(A(Y. Nh vy phng php h s ng nh hng l s chia ct
nhng h s tng quan thnh nhng phn ring l ph hp vi quan h
nhn qu c xc nh.
17.5.2 nh ngha v chng minh h s ng nh hng
Ngi ta nh ngha h s ng nh hng bng biu thc sau:
P( X A) = PXA =
XA
=a
X
Trong (XA: l sai tiu chun ca X chu nh hng bi A khi cc

nguyn nhn khc c xem nh l khng i. (X l sai tiu chun ton
phn ca X cn PXA l h s ng nh hng. Nh nh ngha trn th
PXA c th ln hn 1 v nh hn khng. Nu thay i hng th gi tr ca
n cng thay i. PXA(PAX
17.5.3. H s xc nh
Ngi ta nh ngha h s xc nh dXA nh l mt phn vic xc
nh X m i vi n nguyn nhn A l quyt nh. Vi tt c cc nguyn
nhn bit ta c:
dXA + dXB + + dXE = 1
Theo Wright (1921) th h s xc nh chnh l bnh phng ca h s
ng nh hng:
2
d XA = PXA
=
434
2
XA
= a2
2
X
V d: Trong di truyn hc ta c biu thc ch mi quan h gia kiu gen

v kiu hnh trong mi quan h vi mi trng nh sau:
P=G+U
P2 = g2 + u2
Nu gi thit G v U c lp nhau ta c:
P2 G2 U2
=
+
= d PG + d PU = dXa
P2 P2 P2
17.5.4. Quan h gia nguyn nhn v kt qu c xc nh qua
h s ng nh hng
17.5.4.1. Trng hp cc nguyn nhn c lp
Gi s ta c trng hp bnh ung th rut c th do thc n (A) cung
c th l nguyn nhn di truyn (B). Hai nguyn t ny c lp tng i
vi nhau. T ta c m hnh ch nguyn nhn v kt qu nh sau:
A
X
Hnh 17.10: Nguyn nhn A v B c lp nhau
y A v B l nhng nguyn nhn c lp nhau. Phng trnh

tng quan nhn qu c th vit:
X=A+B
X2 = A2 + B2 v rAB = 0
(ta ch cch vit A(X v B(X khng c vit A(X(B v A v B c lp
nhau)
435
T cng thc (3) ta c:
PXA =
XA A
=
X X
PXB =
XB B
=
X X
d XA + d XB =
B2
=
X2
Mt khc ta tha nhn rng: X = A + B vi rAB = 0

Th ngi ta chng minh c rng:
Hip phng sai: COV (X, A) = (A2
rXA =
A2
CoV ( X , A)
=
= A = PXA
A . X
A . X x
Nh vy trong trng hp A v B c lp ta c h s tng quan v

h s ng nh hng l bng nhau. Tng t ta c: rXB = PXB
By gi ta xt thm v quan h gia h s hi quy v h s ng nh
hng. Ta c cng thc quen thuc h s hi quy:
b XA =
CoV .( X , A)
A2
Vi phng trnh hi quy gia A v X ta c:

(X X) = bXA. (A A)
XX
= b XA .
A ( A A)
.
X
A
Phng trnh trn y gi l phng trnh hi quy tiu chun v h s

mi l:
436
b XA *
A
= PXA
B
M nh trn nu A v B c lp nhau ta c h s tng quan bng h

s ng nh hng. Nh vy h s hi quy chun chnh l h s ng
nh hng theo ng dn t A(X. Nu t:
XX
= X .....va......
( A A)
= A th ta c:
X = PXA. A
Nu khi qut ha trong trng hp c nhiu nguyn nhn c lp A,
B, C, D Th ta c:
V i
X = PXAA + PXBB + + PXD.D

PXi = bXi . (I / X)
Vi i = A, B, C H s hi quy ng thng tiu chun gi l h s

ng nh hng. N ph hp vi nh ngha v bXi. (Xi nh l sai tiu
chun ca X theo nh hng ca i. Cho nn sau ny c vit PXA thay
PAX. T tnh cht ny ca h s ng nh hng khng c kt lun
rng phn tch hi quy v phng php h s ng nh hng l nh nhau.
C nhiu trng hp m hnh hi quy cho quan h gia nhng bin s ngu
nhin khng ph hp vi thc t. Trong m hnh hi quy ngi ta gi thit
bit c rng, cc bin s c lp c nh hng n bin ph thuc. Vi
gi thit rng cc bin c lp l khng nh hng ln nhau; c ngha l, s
thay i ca mt nhn t khng lm nh hng n nhng nhn t khc.
Gi thit ny thng khng ph hp vi thc t. Ngi ta cn cp n
nhng m hnh m mt bin s no va mang tnh cht nguyn
nhn va mang tnh cht kt qu. Phng php h s ng nh hng cho
php kim tra v nh gi nhng m hnh kiu ny. Trong khi th m
hnh hi quy n gin khng c php vn dng, v n khng ph hp vi
thc t.
437
17.5.4.2. Chui ca nhng bin c lp ln yu t mi trng

Ngi ta ni mt chui ca mt qu trnh nu nh hiu qu ca mt
nguyn nhn m nguyn nhn ny li l hiu qu ca nhng nguyn nhn
khc. X = A + B nhng A = C + D vi A v B cng nh C v D l c lp
nhau (xem hnh 17.11).
X
Hnh 17.11: Chui ca cc nguyn nhn c lp
trong cc tc ng mi trng
Trng hp ny ph hp vi m hnh 3 bin c lp. Nhng nguyn

nhn A v B tc ng trc tip ln X. Trong khi th nguyn nhn C v D
tc ng n X thng qua nguyn nhn A, A l hiu qu ca D v C nhng
l nguyn nhn ca X.
X = A + B = C+ D +B
x= A + B = C + D + B
Theo m hnh trn ta c:
438
pXA = rXA
pAC = pAC
pXB = rXB
pAD = pAD
pXC = pXA . pAC = rXA . rAC

pXD = pXA . pAD = rXA . rAD
Qu trnh xc nh h s ng nh hng i vi chui nhn qu
A(C(Y hoc B(C(Y theo nh l sau: Nhng h s xc nh, h s ng
nh hng, h s tng quan gia nhng nguyn nhn c lp v nhng kt
qu ca n c th biu th qua tch ca nhng tr s ring l ng vi chui
m tch lin kt nhng nguyn nhn vi kt qu.
17.5.4.3. Nhng nguyn nhn c lp c tc ng chung ln

Nu ABC v D l nhng nguyn nhn c lp vi nhau, nhng trong
ABC tc ng ln X v BCD tc ng ln Y. Ta c m hnh sau:
Hnh 17.12: Cc nguyn nhn c lp cng tc ng ln

cc yu t mi trng
Ta c: rAB = rAC = rAD = rBC = rBD = rCD = 0
439
Trong nhng nghin cu mi trng, c nhng trng hp hai nhn t

v d t (X) v nc (Y) cng chu nhng nguyn nhn tc ng c lp ln
chng nh: nguyn nhn nhit (A), nh sng (B), gi (C) v sinh vt (D)
X v Y cng chu nh hng ca B v C. Cho nn c tng quan
B(X) v B(Y) cng nh C(X) v C(Y). Do s c mi quan h gia X v
Y. Cng tc l trong m hnh ny mt nhim v quan trng l tm mi quan
h gia X v Y. Hai nguyn nhn A v D khng tham gia vo quan h ny.
Cng nh m hnh hnh 17.12
pXB = rXB
pXC = rXC
pYC = rYC
pYC = rYC
E. Weber (1967) dn dt t m hnh ny thnh nh l cho quan h

ton phn gia hai kt qu X v Y nh sau:
Tng quan ton phn gia hai kt qu X v Y l bng tng ca
nhng tch ca nhng cp h s ng nh hng m nhng tch ny lin
kt hai hiu qu vi mt nguyn nhn chung:
N
rXY = PXi . PYi

i= A
Nh m hnh trn ta c:
rXY = PXB . PYB + PXC.PYC
Nu tt c cc nguyn nhn u xc nh c mt cch chnh xc th:
P2XA + P2XB + P2XC = 1
P2YB + P2YC + P2YD = 1
17.5.4.4. Nhng nguyn nhn c quan h ln nhau trong nghin

cu mi trng
y l trng hp m chng ta thng gp nhiu trong thc t. E Weber
(1967) chng minh m hnh hnh 17.13, mt nh l i vi nhng h s
ca ng nh hng do nhng nguyn nhn c quan h nh sau:
440
H s hn hp i vi tt c cc nhn t nh hng ln mi trng

c biu din bi cc ng nh hng m mt hiu qu no s dng
chng vi nhng nguyn nhn khng trc tip, l bng tng ca nhng tch
ca nhng h s ng nh hng ring l trc tip dc theo tt c nhng
ng nh hng lin kt:
X
Hnh 17.13: Cc nguyn nhn D v E c quan h nhau
tc ng ln cc nhn t mi trng
V d: Bnh ung th gan do n thc n c cha c cht kim loi nng

(D), hoc ung (E) m nguyn nhn thc n (D) ny li c th n trc tip cc
KLN trong thc phm (A), cng c th t nc ung (B). Mt khc, nguyn
nhn do ung (E) cng c th t nc ung (B) v t cht dinh dng dng
nc cha nhiu KLN (C).
Nh m hnh trn ta c:
PYB = PYD . PDB + PYE . PEB = rYB
:
PYD (rYD v PYE (rYE)
Qua m hnh trn ta thy D v E c nh hng qua li thng qua
nguyn nhn B. T ta c m hnh rt gn li theo hnh 17.14
441
Y
Hnh 17.14: Biu th quan h gia hai nhn t mi trng
D v E tc ng ln nhn t mi trng khc Y
Vn dng nh lut tng quan ton phn ta c:

PDB . PBE = rDE
C ngha l, i vi nhng quan h gia hiu qu v cc nguyn nhn
ng thi ( y l D v E) th nguyn nhn chung ( y l B) l khng
quan trng v mt ton hc v c th b i. T ta ch cn c mt m hnh
rt gn nh hnh (17.14). Nhng iu ny li a n mt hu qu tai hi l
s mt mt thng tin i vi nhng quan h nhn qu. Trong m hnh nhng
mi tn tng quan hai chiu ch dn nhng nguyn nhn cha bit hoc
cho n nay cha c th nh lng c.
Tip theo ta c (theo Leroy, 1960):
rYD = PYD + PYE (PDB . PDE) = PYD + PYE . rDE
rYE = PYE + PYD (PDB . PBE) = PYE + PYD . rDE
Theo nhng nh lut v h s ng nh hng gia nhng nguyn
nhn c lp th nhng quan h sau y c xc nh (theo m hnh hnh
17.14)
PYA = PYD.PDA
rYA = rYD.rDA
Ngoi ra theo Leroy ta c:
P2YD + P2YE + 2.rDE .PYD .PYE = 1
442
Nu tt c cc nguyn nhn bit. C ngha l nh m hnh 17.14 ch

c hai nguyn nhn D v E tc ng n Y khng cn nguyn nhn no khc.
Trong thc t, chng ta thng gp cc quan h nhn qu nh kiu m
hnh hnh 17.14. Chng hn, hin tng nghu bi bin Bn Tre cht (Y)
thng chu nh hng ca nc thi t sng Ba Lai ra (D), nhit
khng kh ma kh qu cao (E). Nhng nguyn nhn nhim nc v nhit
li thng qua mt nhn t trung gian (B) l tc ng k thut nui nghu
ca dn Bn Tre
Trong trng hp nh m hnh trn th hin tng nghu cht Y c
xc nh qua biu thc:
Y = PYD. D + PYE. E (trong PYD v PYE c xc nh thng
qua thc nghim).
17.5.4.5. Chui ca nhng nguyn nhn tng quan nhiu bin

trong nghin cu ca mi trng
Trn y ta ch cp cho trng hp Y c quan h vi A B D v E
nhng ch c D v E l quan h vi nhau cn A v C l c lp nhau (rAC =
0). Trong mc ny ta nghin cu mi lin quan gia Y (hiu qu) vi cc
nguyn nhn A B C D c lin quan ln nhau. (Theo m hnh hnh
17.14) v cn c vo nhng quy tc bit ta c th lp c h cc
phng trnh sau:
rXA = PXA + rAB. PXB + rAC. PXC + rAD. PXD
rXB = PXB + rAB. PXA + rBC. PXC + rBD. PXD
rXC = PXC + rAC. PXA + rBC. PXB + rCD. PXD (*)
rXD = PXD + rDA. PXA + rDB. PXB + rDC. PXC
Dng phng php ma trn gii h phng trnh trn ta xc nh
c cc h s ng nh hng PXA, PXB, PXC v PXD; khi chng ta
bit cc h s tng quan gia cc bin vi nhau. Ta c phng trnh nh
hng nh sau:
443
X = PXA. A + PXB. B + PXC. C + PXD. D (**)

Ngoi ra, ngi ta cn tnh c h s xc nh ca chng bng biu
thc:
BX = P2XA + P2XB + P2XC + P2XD + 2 PXA. PXB. rAB + 2 PXB. PXD. rBD +2
PXC. PXD. RCD +2 PXA. PXD. rAD +2 PXA. PXD. rAD +2 PXB. PXC. rBC = 1 (***)
Nu cc nguyn nhn u xc nh c, trong , nhng bnh
phng ca cc h s ng nh hng cho cng ca nh hng trc
tip, th cc thnh phn cn li cho nh hng gin tip.
X
Hnh 17.15: Mi quan h nhn qu trong trng hp c nhiu nguyn nhn c
quan h ln nhau trong tc ng cc yu t mi trng
Trong nghin cu mi trng, chng ta thng gp nhiu th nghim

nghin cu nh m hnh ca hnh (17.15). Chng hn, X l lng xi mn
mt do nh hng ca tn che A ca tng cy cao (B) dc i ni (C)
v chiu di dc (D) nhng bn thn A, B, C, D cng c tc ng ln nhau
tng cp mt. Trong mc sau ta hy nghin cu k mt vi ng dng m
hnh ny.
17.5.5. Mt vi thut ton gii cc bi ton ng dng v h s

ng nh hng trong nghin cu mi trng
Nh trn thy, khi gii cc bi ton v h s truyn nh hng ta
thng gp nhiu trng hp rt phc tp, nht l khi s nguyn nhn cng
444
nhiu. Phng php chnh gii cc bi ton nh vy l da vo cch tnh

ma trn (Matrix) tm cc nghim ca mt h phng trnh bc nht nhiu
n s. Cc bc gii nh sau:
Chng hn nh h phng trnh (*). Trc ht ta lp mt ma trn
cc h s ca PXA, PXB, PXC v PXD nh ma trn sau:
1
rAB
rAC
rAD
rAB 1
rBC
rBD
rAC rCB
rCD
rAD rDB
rDC
em s o ngc ca ma trn ny nhn vi ma trn ct v tri ca h

(*) ta nhn c gi tr ca cc n s cn tm l PXA, PXB, PXC v PXD.
Vic gii cc ma trn trn c th thc hin rt nhanh chng trn cc
chng trnh phn mm ca my vi tnh nh quy trnh dng Excel 5.0. Nh
m hnh hnh (17.15) ta c:
1
rAB
rAB
rAC
rAD
rBC
rBD
-1
rXA
PXA
rXB
PXB
=
rAC
rCB
rCD
rXC
PXC
rAD
rDB
rDC
rXD
PXD
Nhng thc hin c phng php h s ng nh hng th

trc ht ngi ta phi tnh c cc h s tng quan gia cc i lng
quan st. Trong iu kin c my vi tnh vic tnh ton cc h s ny rt n
gin bng mt chng trnh c sn. Chng hn trong chng trnh Excel
5.0, ta c th dng Correlation trong menu Analysis Tools.
445
V d: Nghin cu nh hng ca kh hu thi tit v s lng b

cht qua cc thng. Qua nghin cu ngi ta thy rng, s lng trung bnh
b cht hng thng (X) mt s a phng no l c nguyn nhn t
lng ma (A), nhit trung bnh trong thng (C), m trung bnh thng
(D) v s ngy nng trong thng (B) nh bng di y:
Bng 17.1: Bng thng k s lng b cht (X) qua cc thng
(Ngun: Nguyn Hi Tun v Ng Kim Khi, 1996)
Thng
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
20,1
122
16,4
83,5
11
24,9
122,6
18,1
80,4
7,33
41,5
140
19,9
77,6
17,33
120,5
143
25,1
76,8
13,33
159,2
180,6
33,6
78,4
23,33
258,2
184,0
33,5
80,2
25
273,5
180,3
30,7
83,6
32
280,6
163,6
28,6
85,7
19,33
192,3
162,6
24,6
84,2
18,33
10
64,9
160,6
23,5
76,6
8,33
11
35,6
156,6
20,2
70,6
8,33
12
16,2
140
19,0
70
3,66
T kt qu trn, ta tnh c h s tng quan gia cc ct vi nhau

c cc kt qu nh sau:
446
rXA = 0,8492
rAB = 0,7898
rBD = 0,1635
rXB = 0,7497
rAC = 0,8638
rCD = 0,3279
rXC = 0,8196
rAD = 0,0173
rXD = 0,5909
rBC = 0,9149
M hnh biu th mi quan h nhn qu ca bng (17.1) tng t nh

m hnh cho hnh (17.15). tm cc h s ng nh hng PXA, PXB,
PXC v PXD theo m hnh hnh (17.15) ta chuyn cc h s tng quan
trn thnh ma trn sau:
1
rAB
rAB
rAC
rAD
rBC
rBD
0,7898 0,8638 0,6173
0,7898 1
0.9149
0,1635
=
rAC
rCB
rCD
0,8638 0,9149 1
0,3279
rAD
rDB
rDC
0,6173 0,1635 0,3279 1
Dng quy trnh nhn ma trn nhn s o ngc ca ma trn ny

vi ma trn ct c cha cc phn t rXA, rXB, rXC, rXD cho ta cc kt qu sau:
PXA = 0,0343
PXC = 0,335012
PXD = 0,401643 PXB = 0,028106

Qua kt qu trn ta thy ng truyn nh hng t D tc l m
trung bnh thng l cao nht, thp nht l nguyn nhn lng ma trung
bnh thng. iu ni ln rng, mt nc nhit i nh nc ta, vi m
cao c th lm cho cc bnh dch tru b c iu kin ly lan lm cho
nguy c cht tru b cao. Tri li lng ma nh hng khng ng lo ngi.
Tip theo l ta tnh h s xc nh theo cng thc (***) xem xt cng
ca nh hng trc tip v gin tip:
Bx = (0,0278106)2 + (0,335012)2 +(0,357221)2 + (0,401643)2+2 * 0,028106
* 0,335012* 0,7898 + 0,028106 * 0,357221 *0,8638 + 2
* 0,028106 *0,41643 * 0,6173 + 2 * 0,335012 *0,357221
* 0,9149 +2 *0,335012 * 0,401643 * 0,1635 + 2* 0,357221
* 0,401643 *0,3279 = 0,805171.
Nhn xt:
H s xc thc cha bng 1. Chng t cn c nhng nguyn nhn
khc lm cho b cht m ngi ta cha nm c.
447
Nu tch thnh phn nh hng trc tip l nhng h s truyn nh

hng bnh thng th bng 0,3960 v cc thnh phn cn li (khng trc
tip) bng 0,4080. Chng t chng xp x nhau. V cn mt s nguyn nhn
khc cha xc nh c.
Do cn mt s nguyn nhn cha xc nh nn ta khng lp phng
trnh h s ng nh hng ca s lng tru b cht vi yu t kh hu,
thi tit nh ta gii thiu cng thc (**).
Phng php ng nh h ng c ngh a quan tr ng khi nghin
cu m i quan h nhn qu c a cc i l ng quan st, nh ng n rt
ph c tp, ch gi i quyt nhanh trong iu kin c my vi tnh. M t
nh c im n a l cc i lng gp ph i c th l nh ng t ng quan
phi tuyn. Tuy nhin, nu h s tng quan (r) t ng i l n th ta c
th s d ng c.
TIU KT
Nhng kt qu tm kim nghin cu thng thng v cc yu t nh
hng mi trng c gi ti ngi c. Tuy nhin, c khi mt mu thng
tin c th c truyn thng tt hn dng bng hoc th. Nhng iu
khng mang li cho ngi c bt k thng tin no nhng gip truyn
t thng tin r rng. Bn nn dng cng c no m bn ngh l gip cho
ngi c d hiu hn. Bng biu c li th ca vic cha ng nhiu thng
tin trong mt khng gian nh, trong khi nhng th gip cun ht gy n
tng ngi c khi h ch cn c lt qua thng tin.
Mt bng cn phi c nm phn: tiu , mu, nhng tiu ct hoc
u , phn thn v nhng ghi ch b sung hoc nhng li ch thch. Ty
vo s bin thng tin m bng tch tr, c ba kiu bng: bng mt bin (tn
s), bng hai bin (bng cho) v bng nhiu bin.
gii thch mt bng, nhng php tnh s hc n gin nh phn

trm, tn s tch ly, hoc t l c th c s dng. Bn c th dng tnh
ton thng k miu t n gin nh phng tin, kiu, trung tuyn, t - kim
448
tra, v h s tng quan. Nu bn c kin thc thng k, th nhng thng tin

c thng k tin tin c th c ng dng.
C nhiu kiu th, nhng kiu ph bin l: biu , biu thanh,
biu thanh chng, biu thanh chng 100%, a gic tn s, trnh by
theo thn cy v l cy, biu nan qut, hng hoc s khuynh hng,
biu vng v biu scatter. Bn dng nhng kiu biu ny ty vo
mc ch v t l o c dng khi o bin hin th trong biu . Vi th
th kh v nhng vi mt vi chng trnh my tnh th d dng thc hin .
Cng c th biu din mi quan h tng tc, nhn qu qua cc on
thng vi phng, chiu v ln khc nhau n phc tp c th dng
bi ton ma trn kt hp.
Cu hi:
1. Biu din d liu nghin cu thng qua cc cch no ?
2. Cu trc ca mt bng biu nh th no ?
3. Biu din d liu nghin cu thng qua bng biu c nhng u dim
v nhc im no ?
4. C my kiu phn trm trong bng biu ? L nhng kiu no ?
5. C bao nhiu loi th trong biu din kt qu nghin cu thng
qua th ?
6. u, nhc im ca biu din d liu kt qu nghin cu thng qua
th ?
7. H s ng nh hng trong nghin cu mi trng l g ?
8. H s xc nh l g ?
9. Mi quan h gia nguyn nhn, kt qu c xc nh h s ng
nh hng nh th no ?
10. Biu din d liu kt qu nghin cu lm g ?
Ti liu tham kho:
NXB Gio Dc
449

DNG THIU TNG, 2002, Phng Php Nghin Cu Khoa Hc
Gio Dc v Tm L, Nh xut bn i Hc Quc Gia TP H Ch Minh. H
Ch Minh
450
GS-TSKH L Huy B (Ch bin)
Chng 18
VIT MT BO CO NGHIN CU
(Bo co y )
18.1. VIT NGHIN CU TNG QUT
Bc cui cng trong chui nghin cu l vit bo co nghin cu.
Mi bc ca qu trnh u quan trng cho gi tr nghin cu, cng nh
trong bt k giai on no cng s nh hng n tt c s nghin cu,
m khng ch ring phn . Ni cch khc, bc cui cng l quan trng
nht, v thng qua bo co, nhng pht hin trong nghin cu v nhng ng
dng ca n c lin h m cp trn v ngi c hiu c. Hu ht mi
ngi cha tht khai thc ht s lng v cht lng cng vic trong qu
trnh v kt qu nghin cu ca mnh ngha l bn cha lm cho con s ca
bn bit ni. bi bo co c r rng, mch lc, ngi vit phi ht
sc chm cht trong mi giai on ca bi vit (hay lun n tt nghip i
hc, thc s, tin s). Chnh v th nn tt c cng trnh c th b hng nu
bi bo co y khng c vit tt. Nh Burns vit Cng vic thc hnh
hp dn v c gi tr cc k c th b hng pht cui cng bi ngi sinh
vin khng th kt ni mt cch d dng (1994: 229).
Trong bi bo co, ngi vit cn thm vo hiu bit ca mnh v
s nghin cu; cht lng ca bi bo co ph thuc vo nhiu th nh: ti
kho lo lin kt v ni dung r rng, kh nng din t bng tng logic
v mch lc, kin thc da trn phm vi ch . Kinh nghim cng ng
mt vai tr quan trng trong khi vit bi bo co. Cng c nhiu kinh
nghim th cng nhiu hiu qu trong khi vit bo co. C dn chng c th
th s lin thng mang tnh l lun v thc tin hn. V d: khi mt mi lin
h th hin c tnh h thng cht ch th ngi c tin tng vo vic
nghin cu. S dng li vn din t nhng kin thc tm c s lm
cho ngi c thy d hiu. Ci quan trng l xuyn sut ni dung bi bo
co cn phi th hin ng ton b mc ch vic nghin cu.
S khc nhau chnh yu gia cc bi nghin cu v cc bi vit khc
l ch i hi mc iu khin, nghim tc, thn trng. Ngi vit cn ht
sc cn thn vi nhng g cn vit, chn nhng t ng chnh xc, ni dung
450
Phng php nghin cu khoa hc
phi chuyn ti ht c mc chnh xc nhng kt lun ca kt qu

nghin cu. S khc bit nht gia bi nghin cu v cc bi vit th loi
khc l mc chnh xc cao. Vit bi nghin cu phi mang tnh chnh
xc tuyt i, phi r rng, khng l thuc, phi logic, phi sc tch.
Nhng kin thc trng tm ca bi nghin cu khng lan man. Khng
dng ngn ng so rng, nng cn. m bo ng mc tiu, ngi
nghin cu cn phc tho dn bi trc khi vit bi nghin cu khoa hc.
Khng nhng th, bi vit phi c cc phn mc ch, ni dung, phng
php, kt qu nghin cu, kt lun, kin ngh, ti liu tham kho c bit
phi ch gia mc ch, phng php v ni dung nghin cu phi ph
hp vi nhau. Mt mc ch nht nh th phi cn mt hay vi ni dung th
hin mc ch . Mt ni dung nht nh li phi c mt phng php
tng thch. Mt s ni dung v phng php nht nh th s cho ta mt s
kt qu nht nh khng th khc c. Mt s kt lun nht nh th ta
phi c kin ngh trn c s kt lun nghin cu ca ta ch khng kin ngh
trn kt qu nghin cu ca ngi khc.
Ngoi ra, bi vit ca bn ng qun phn gii hn phm vi ti
cho them phn cht ch, c t kha (key words) v tm tt (summary)
Bi nghin cu khoa hc s cn c chnh sa, thm nh, nu mun ng
ti trn cc tp ch chuyn ngnh.
18.2. THAM KHO TI LIU V SP XP TI LIU THAM KHO
18.2.1. Tham kho ti liu
Bo co khoa hc s da trn nhng ti liu tham kho. Nhng khi
trnh by ti liu tham kho (TLTK) li phi trnh by theo quy nh
chung, thm tr theo quy nh ring ca tng trng i hc. C 4 h
thng tham kho, t c th chn 1 trong nhng h thng tham kho
(Butcher 1992: 226). Cn thc hin ng theo nguyn tc ca trng i
hc y qui nh. C th chia phn TLTK ra hai phn: ting Anh v ting
Vit cng c th chia hai phn: TLTK chnh thng v khng chnh thng,
cng c th chia 4 phn: u tin TLTK ny c s dng hu ht trong
sch tng qut, th hai ch yu trong sch khoa hc t nhin v khoa hc
451
x hi, th ba t thng xuyn, v th 4: c bit (Butcher 1981: 167).

Tuy nhin vit TLTK phi p ng 4 yu cu:
1. H thng tiu ngn
2. H thng tc gi ngy, thng, nm
3. Tham kho h thng s
4. H thng tc gi s
Sau khi ta c mt danh mc nhng ti liu tham kho ph gip cho
nghin cu, ta s phi tham kho chng k cng. Tt nhin s dng ti liu
no phi ghi r ca tc gi, ngun nm no hay nh s bng [2] - s ghi
trong du mc vung l s th t m ti liu dng tham kho trong Bng
Ti liu tham kho.
Nhng bng s liu c trch dn cng cn ghi r ngun v pha
di mi bng (hay hnh, th...)
18.2.2. Sp xp ti liu tham kho
Ty theo mi c quan o to hay nghin cu m ngi ta c quy
nh c khc nhau i cht v vic sp xp TLTK. Tuy nhin, chung nht c
th theo cch ca i hc Quc gia Thnh ph H Ch Minh nh sau:
a. Vi sch, gio trnh, tc phm th:
Xp tn tc gi theo th t Alphabel
Nu cng mt tc gi th ti liu no xut bn trc, xp trc; ti

liu no sau, xp sau.
Nu l tp th tc gi th xp tc gi ch bin trc theo th t

Alphabel. C ln lt nh vy cho n cng tc vin 1, cng tc
vin 2,n
Nm xut bn
Tn sch hoc gio trnh hoc tc phm (in nghing)
Nh xut bn
Ni xut bn
452
b. Vi tp ch:
Cng ging mh xp TLTK sch, gio trnh, tc phm, tp ch tham

kho cn b sung
Tn bi tham kho (in nghing)
Tn tp ch (t trang s n trang s )
Ngy, thng, nm xut bn. Hoc s tp ch, nm
18.3. VIT MT TH MC
C nhiu h thng thit lp tt vit mt th mc. Cch chn vit
mt th mc ph thuc vo quy nh ca trng i hc khoa hc t nhin
hay x hi. Thng dng nht l:
H thng Harvard (M).
H thng i hc Quc gia Thnh ph H Ch Minh
H thng t chc McGraw Hill.
H thng t chc ngn ng hin i
H thng Nga v cc nc ng u.
H thng ch thch cui trang.
H thng Internet
Nghin cu v cc h thng cc loi ny, tra cu ti liu tham kho

c cung cp cui cun sch ny hoc th vin.
18. 4. PHT TRIN MT DN BI CHI TIT
Mc d khi nghin cu chng ta c cng nghin cu, v ngay
sau l cng vit bo co khoa hc hay cng lun n, tuy nhin.
mi l d kin. Qu trnh nghin cu c th c rt nhiu thay i chi tit,
thm ch c v hng ti.
V vy, trc khi bt u vit bo co cn pht trin mt dn bi chi
tit th bi vit s tt hn (xem mc 13.6.2, chng 13). C ngha l bi bo
co c chia thnh nhiu chng khc nhau v k hoch s vit g trong
mi chng, cng chi tit, cng c th cng tt.
453
Trong khi trin khai mi chng, nhng ch th nh ca nghin cu

cung cp nhng hng dn rng ri. Mi chng khng nhng phi th hin
tm quan trng ca ch c chn mt cch hon ho m cn kt hp
vi cc ch c lin quan. Ta ca mi chng s c m t ln ch
chnh, s lin kt ci chnh c y mnh, lm r, sc tch.
Chng u
Phn u ca bi bo co c th c ta "M u" hay Gii thiu
nhm gii thiu tng qut vn nghin cu, bao qut hu ht d n nghin
cu, ch ra s phn chia phm vi nghin cu, nhng thay i nu c t
cng nghin cu chi tit c duyt. Chng ny vit m , dn dt
ngi c hiu ti sao li nghin cu ti ny. Cn nu tt c mc tiu
ghi trong cng nghin cu trc . Sau , dn ti mc tiu nghin
cu, Phng php nghin cu (trong c Phng php lun v nhng
phng php c th tin hnh nghin cu, ly mu v o c v phn tch).
V d: Vit cng nghin cu ti: "Lan truyn nhim c cht
phn trong h sinh thi ng Thp Mi".
Chng ny s c a ra vi nhng ni dung chi tit sau:
Chng 1: Gii thiu
Gii thiu t phn. S kh khn khi s dng ti nguyn ny: c

cht.
Nhng nt c bn v cc c cht ch yu trong. H sinh thi: Al3+,

Fe2+, SO42-
Tc ng c cht ln nng xut v cht lng nng phm.
Tc ng c cht ln con ngi v ng vt thc vt trong vng

phn
V sao li phi chn ti ny nghin cu.
Khuynh hng nghin cu c cht v tc ng ca n, hin nay,

trn th gii v Vit Nam.
C s l thuyt v thc tin cho nghin cu ti ny.
454
Mc tiu nghin cu.
D tho nghin cu.
Nhng vn gii hn.
Chng hai:
Tng quan ti liu. Chng ny s cung cp thng tin nghin cu
trong v ngoi nc v c cht trong mi trng phn. y mi lin h
c cht trong mi trng t - nc v tc ng h canh tc nh hng
din bin c cht. Chng ny phc v 2 mc ch chnh:
1. N cung cp cho ngi c mt vi nn tng thng tin v chng c
th lin quan nhng pht hin, khm ph ca nghin cu din bin, nhim,
lan truyn v gy c c cht phn.
2. N gip chng t kh nng tch ly v x l thng tin x l thng
tin ban u ca ngi nghin cu.
Chng ny c th c vit xung quanh nhng tiu sau y:
Tng quan nghin cu cc vn lin quan ti nghin cu
2.1 c im chnh v vng nghin cu ng Thp Mi
2.2 Khi nim t phn.
2.3 Mt s qu trnh bin i ha hc trong t phn
2.4 Khi nim chung v c cht trong t phn.
2.5 H sinh thi nng nghip vng t phn.
2.6 nh hng ca c cht phn ln h sinh thi nng nghip
2.7 M hnh ha t phn, nc phn.
Chung 3: Ni dung, i tng v phng php nghin cu
3.1. Ni dung nghin cu: c th c nhng ni dung sau
Bin i c cht trong nc phn theo cc tc nhn khc nhau;
Bin i c cht trong cc tng t phn, cha tc ng ngoi cnh
v con ngi;
455
Lan truyn nhim phn theo chiu su tng t;

Lan truyn phn theo dng chy;
Xy dng m hnh lan truyn;
Tc ng ln h sinh thi: cy ch th, cy trng, c, tm, cy hoang
di, ng vt ch th.
3.2. Phng php nghin cu
a/ Phng php lun:
Tr li cu hi v sao s dng phng php ny m khng s dng
phng php khc. ch li ca phng php, l do tip cn;
M hnh khi qu trnh nghin cu
b/ Phng php c th:
Phng php tng hp d liu;
Phng php iu tra thc a;
Phng php iu tra phiu;
Phng php phn tch ha l;
Phng php xy dng m hnh ha, m phng;
Phng php GIS.
Phng php ly mu.

Phng php o c.
3.3. i tng nghin cu: V d: la, mi trng thnh phn (t,
nc, la).
3.4. Phm vi nghin cu: Trng rng ng Thp Mi, Tn Thnh.
Chung 4: Kt lun v tho lun
4.1. Din bin, lan truyn c cht trong t v nc vng sinh thi
nng nghip phn ng Thp Mi.
4.2. nh hng ca bin ng lan truyn c cht ln cy trng trong
h sinh thi nng nghip.
456
4.3. Kt qu nghin cu xy dng m hnh ton hc (LANDTRU) m

phng qu trnh lan truyn nc chua phn ng Thp Mi.
4.4. Kt lun v kin ngh
4.5. Ti liu tham kho
Ph lc
(Trch cng lun n tin s ca T Vn Trng 2001-2004)
Ta v nhng ni dung ca nhng chng vi tnh logic lin tc
ph thuc vo nhng g m tc gi c gng th m t, kho st t m kim
tra, thit lp hoc chng minh trong qu trnh nghin cu.
Khi ni dung ca mi d n khc nhau th nhng chng ny s khc
nhau. iu ny th hin u tin t ta ca mi chng s phn nh s
ni bt chnh yu ca ni dung .
Dn bi phi nu ln c tnh c trng cho nhng phn chi tit
trong chng. Nhng phn nh ny s c pht trin xung quanh nhng
kha cnh khc nhau ca ti v s c tho lun trong chng. Nu tc
gi d nh lin kt thng tin cha ng t mt s bin i ca mt yu t
mi trng vi nhng nhn t khc, lm ni bc c trng ca s bin
i th tc gi cn to ra mt chui ca qu trnh bin i trong c gng
tm nhn t tri nh hng ln chng to chui tho lun ca s bin i.
Trong khi quyt nh ny, hy nh tin trnh ni lin v logic gia cc phn
vi nhau. y c ngha l dn bi lc ban u bn son ra c th b thay i
khi vit bo co. N c th cho nhng thay i ng k. Tuy nhin, mt dn
bi, d ch l i cng thi cng s l s h tr nhiu cho ngi vit.
18.5. VIT V BIN S
Khi c s pht trin dn bi ca chng, bc k tip l bt u vit.
Khi , ngi nghin cu cn ch ng sp xp. Nhng hng dn di y
c th gip mt phn cho nhng ngi mi bt u vit bo co nghin cu.
Khi vit, nhng thng tin cha ng trong dn ca bn phi p ng
vn bin i , bn phi din t nh th ang cung cp nhng cu tr li
cho nhng vn bn t ra, xin ly v d sau y:
457
Ti sao li c s lin quan gia cc ion c cht? Cc ion tng

quan hay tng tc vi nhau? Nu c th theo chiu no? phng trnh no?
C ch tc n ch o l g? Cc suy ngh g v s quan trng n s
nghin cu bin i? Hiu qu th no? Theo quan im khch quan, c th
s bin i ny lin quan s bin i ang gii thch? (y l ni cung cp
c s hp l cho s nghin cu bin i). Trong trng hp bin thnh ct,
ci g lin quan vi nhng nghin cu tm thy khc hn gia s bin i
ang phn tch. y l s thng nht gia ti liu c vi nhng g mi tm
thy trong nghin cu.
S lm g khi tm ra dng lin h gia hai s bin s? (Nu c cng
thc gi thit biu hin n y).
Cng vic nghin cu v ang tm ra c g? (Cung cp d liu
cng t nghin cu y hoc biu hoc bi lun vn).
Nhng d liu ny ch ra nhng g? (Din gii nhng s tm thy
nhng g?).
Ngi nghin cu c th a ra nhng kt lun g? Nhng kt lun
a ra t nghin cu mi y so vi nhng nghin cu tng t trong qu
kh c g mi? Nghin cu ca tc gi theo xu hng ng h hay mu thun
vi ci c.
Nh nghin cu cung cp nhng gii thch nh th no trong sut
qu trnh tm ti nghin cu?
C th a ra m hnh ton v lan truyn nhim ca mnh ra sao?
Nhng vn nu trn ch l nhng ngh ngi vit sp xp
suy ngh ca mnh, n khng l bng danh sch ca mt tiu u . C th
thay i nhng ngh bi Bo co c hp dn hn. Di y l mt
v d bi vit bo co khoa hc v Lan truyn nhim v bin i c cht
Phn trong h sinh thi nng nghip ng Thp Mi (trong Chng 3):
Ti sao li phi dng m hnh ton din t din bin ca ion c
trong mi trng t phn? C cch no din t hay hn khng? Nhng s
nghin cu khc c ci g trong ti liu c? Ni v tnh hp l trong s dng
cc m hnh khc?
458
iu mong i tm ra nhng g t nghin cu c cht? Nu c th

cng thc, gi thit no lm n tr nn c trng...
Nhng g c tm ra v s hp l cng thc G-bai-nai; phn no
ca s nghin cu h sinh thi ng Thp Mi ni ln tnh hp l? Phn
no ni ln khng hp l?
Nhng d liu m ngi nghin cu a ra ch ra nhng g v s
hp l khi xut ra M hnh LANSTRU (T Vn Tng 2003)? S pht
hin m hnh ny so vi nhng nghin cu khc l nh th no? So vi ti
liu c, nghin cu ca bn ng h hay mu thun vi chng? Nhng kt
lun no c a ra v s hp l cho h sinh thi t phn?
Trong nhng nh ngh trn cho bn trc khi vit bo co, cn
lu tm l s dng cc thng tin cha nhng vn ; cng ng thi ch
xem li ti liu c r sot xem c hay khng c s thng nht gia
nghin cu v kt qu nghin cu ca mnh, bn c kt qu chnh xc,
sc thuyt phc. Nu bn c c mt tm nhn bao qut v cch nhn, cch
xc nh vn lm cho s liu bit ni v ni hay th kt lun cng thnh
cng cng nhiu cn thn th tin cy cng cao trong kt lun ca bi vit.
C cu ngh c t chc xung quanh ti chnh ca nghin cu.
Ngi c cn tham kho mt cch lin tc ti hang lot cc cu hi v tnh
logic, tnh mi ca n. C cu ny khng gii thch ni dung phn m u
v s khng theo sau.
TIU KT
Nh vy, vit bo co l bc quan trng nht trong chui nghin cu
khi n c a ra nhng kt qu nghin cu cho cp trn hay c gi. Mt
bo co khng c vit tt c th lm hng tt c cng vic v tm sc m
ngi nghin cu k vng.
Bi nghin cu c vit theo nhiu cch nhng tt c bo co nghin
cu phi c trnh by mt cch r rng v sc tch. Hn th na, vit bi
khoa hc i hi ngi vit phi va nghim khc va phi rt sang sut, v
c ngha v m bo tnh chnh xc v khch quan. Bo co c th c vit
vi c cu khc nhau, v chng ny v ang ngh rng nhng sinh
vin nghin cu cn c h tr.
459
C nhiu cch sp xp khc nhau v ti liu tham kho v vit mt th

mc. Ngi vit cn la chn h thng c chp nhn bi nguyn tc ca
trng i hc, ta nn theo quy ch ca B Gio dc v o to hay ca i
hc Quc gia.
Trc khi bt u vit bo co nghin cu, cn pht trin mt dn bi
ca nhiu chng khc nhau v ni dung ca chng. Nhng chng ny s
c vit xung quanh ti chnh ca nghin cu, cho nhng mc tiu nh
to s h tr ln nhau v lm r mc tiu chnh ca ti. Khi cung cp
thng tin c trng v mt s bin i, bi vit s thng nht c s hp l
cho nghin cu bin i. Xem li t ng, gi thit, s tm ti, d tho,
nhng kt lun, nhng s gii thch.
C cu ngh c m t nh vit ch - vit t chc xung quanh
ti trng im (quan trng) ca nghin cu. Vi mt ti, nn cung cp hay
trnh by theo mt kiu thng nht, theo sau mt tin trnh logic ca ngh.
18.6. CC V D CNG VIT BO CO NGHIN CU
18.6.1. cng vit bo co khoa hc ti cp tnh
Tn ti: "Nghin cu nh hng ca tn d thuc bo v thc vt,
phn bn trong mi trng t, nc ln mt s cy trng nng nghip v
sc kho ngi dn tnh Ty Ninh".
Phn I: M U
t vn v sao phi thc hin ti ny Ty Ninh (tnh cp
thit, tnh thc t v tnh khoa hc ca ti).
Sau khi hon thnh ti gip c g cho Ty Ninh. T cc hin
tng ng c a phng, t nhng v pht hin thuc tr c ln trong
rau, c v nhng ngi phun thuc chuyn nghip sc khe yu km, lm ta
quan ngi v phi iu tra cnh bo, c bin php phng nga.
Phn II: TNG QUAN NGHIN CU
2.1. Tng quan v thuc bo v thc vt (BVTV)
2.1.1. S lc v s pht trin ca thuc BVTV
460
2.1.2. Khi nim v thuc BVTV

2.1.3. Phn loi thuc BVTV
2.1.4. c tnh sinh - ha hc ca mt s nhm thuc BVTV chnh
2.1.5. Tc ng ca thuc BVTV n cy trng
2.1.6. Tc ng ca thuc BVTV n mi trng v sc khe con ngi
2.2. Tng quan v phn bn
2.2.1. Phn loi phn bn
2.2.2. Tnh hnh s dng phn bn
2.2.3. S dng phn bn vo vn mi trng
2.2.4. Tc ng ca phn bn i vi cy trng
2.2.5. Tc ng ca phn bn n mi trng sinh thi t
2.2.6. Tc ng ca phn bn n sc khe con ngi
2.3. Tng quan v cy la
2.3.1. Mt vi nt v cy la
2.3.2. Lch s gieo trng la
2.3.3. S sinh trng pht trin ca cy la
2.3.4. Ma v
2.4. Tng quan v cy mng cu
2.4.1. Khi qut lch s v cy mng cu
2.4.2. c tnh thc vt v yu cu iu kin ngoi cnh
2.4.3. K thut trng trt v thu hoch
2.4.4. Tnh hnh su bnh trn cy mng cu
2.5. Tng quan v cy ma
2.5.1. Gii thiu khi qut
2.5.2. Xt v mt sinh hc
2.5.3. Cc giai on sinh trng v pht trin ca cy ma
461
2.5.4. c im sinh hc v yu cu sinh thi

2.5.5. Mt s su bnh hi ma thng gp
2.5.6. Gii thiu s lc v hai ging ma c trng ti huyn
Dng Minh Chu v Tn Chu tnh Ty Ninh.
2.6. S lc v cy rau
2.6.1. Tnh hnh sn sut rau trong nc v trn th gii
2.6.2. Phn loi
2.7. Mt s khi nim c bn v h thng t.
2.7.1. Nhng vn mi trng t nng nghip.
2.7.2. Mt s c im ca thuc tr su trong mi trng t
2.7.3. Nhng khi nim c bn ca s vn chuyn cht nhim trong
mi trng d thm.
2.8. S vn chuyn v tn ti ca c cht trong t
2.8.1. S phn b cht bn
2.8.2. S ha tan
2.8.3. S chuyn i gia khi kh lng
2.8.4. S hp ph hay kh nng tn ti
2.8.5. nh gi pha phn b ca cht bn
Phn III: MC TIU, NI DUNG, PHNG PHP NGHIN CU
(Phn ny c sn trong cng nghin cu c duyt trc lc
ti trin khai)
3.1 Muc ch nghien cu:
Xac nh mc o ton lu cac chat oc t thuoc tr sau, phan bon hoa
hoc trong moi trng at, nc mat, nc ngam va anh hng cua chung en
sc khoe ngi nong dan do viec s dung thuoc tr sau, phan bon hoa hoc tren
mot so cay trong chnh Tay Ninh nh: rau, thuoc la, au phong, mang cau,
nhan, ma, lua.
e xuat bien phap khac phuc va phong nga tac hai.
462
3.2. oi tng - Thi gian - ia iem nghien cu
Thi gian nghien cu: T thang 11/2000 en thang 6/2002.

Cac loai cay trong chnh: rau Chau Thanh; lua Ben Cau va
Trang Bang; thuoc la Ben Cau; au phong Go Dau, Trang Bang; ma
Tan Chau, Dng Minh Chau; nhan mang cau Hoa Thanh, thuoc tnh
Tay Ninh (c s la chon cac loai oi tng cay trong e nghien cu da tren
ke hoach phat trien nong nghiep cua tnh Tay Ninh nam 1999).
at: tang at canh tac (0 - 20, 25cm) chu yeu thuoc nhom at xam
phat trien tren phu sa co.
Nc: nc mat; nc ngam;
Nong dan phun thuoc;
Thuoc bao ve thc vat: thuoc tr sau (goc chlor hu c va goc lan hu
c); thuoc tr benh; thuoc diet co. (ay la cac loai thuoc BVTV co tnh oc
cao, ton lu lau a c chnh quyen a phng ban hanh lenh cam s dung).
Phan vo c: N, P, K.
S o lay mau:
a/ Mau nong san:
Chon mot so ruong nong san ien hnh phan bo trong cac huyen noi tren.
Lay mau tai cac v tr anh dau X.
463
b/ Mau at:
Lay tng tang at ngay tai v tr lay mau nong san (di goc cay).
V tr lay mau c anh dau X.
c/ Lay mau nc mat

lay mau tai cac song, kenh, rach, nam gan khu vc canh tac cac loai
nong san noi tren.
Lay mau nc mat au dong nc, gia dong va cuoi dong (v tr
anh dau X).
au don g
X
X
X
Cuoi don g
d/ Lay mau nc ngam:

Nc ngam c lay t cac gieng bm cua cac ho gia nh bo tr gan
cac ho nong san.
464
e/ Mau bun lang:

Lay di cac long song, kenh, rach.
Lay ngay tai v tr lay mau nc mat.
f/ Lay mau mau:
Mau mau c lay tat ca cac nong dan trc tiep san xuat.
Tien hanh lay mau tai cac ruong nong san ien hnh noi tren (ngi
dan ang lam viec).
3.3. Noi dung nghien cu
1. Khao sat, bien hoi tong hp so lieu ve ieu kien t nhien, kinh te, xa
hoi cua tnh Tay Ninh lien quan en e tai nghien cu.
2. Thu thap so lieu nen (phong moi trng) cho cac ch tieu nghien cu:
Dien tch, phan bo va tnh chat cac loai at
ac iem, tnh chat nc mat, nc ngam
Cac loai cay trong va nang suat qua cac thi ky.
3. Phan tch cac anh hng cua ieu kien t nhien, kinh te, xa hoi en
moi trng sinh thai trong khu vc.
4. ieu tra tap quan canh tac, s dung thuoc tr sau, s dung phan bon
hoa hoc.
5. Phan tch d lng thuoc tr sau trong at, nc ngam, nc mat
nhng vung trong cac loai cay trong chnh: phospho hu c, chlor hu c.
6. Phan tch d lng phan bon trong at, nc ngam, nc mat nhng
vung trong cac loai cay trong chnh: N- tong, N- NH4+, P- tong, P- PO4-3, kali
va mot so kim loai nang trong at: Cu, Pb, Zn, Hg.
7. Phan tch cac ch tieu ly hoc at: ty trong, dung trong, o xop, o am.
8. Phan tch cac ch tieu ly hoa, vi sinh trong nc mat: pH, EC, o uc,
BOD, COD, tong coliform, E.coli,
9. Phan tch d lng thuoc tr sau trong nong san: phospho hu c, chlor
hu c.
465
10. Nghien cu anh hng cua thuoc tr sau len sc khoe cua ngi nong dan.
11. e xuat cac bien phap han che, ngan chan tac hai.
3.4. Phng phap nghien cu
3.4.1. Phng phap luan
ng dung phng phap luan nghien cu sinh thai moi trng. Trong moi
trng luon co nhng tac ong ong thi vao mot thanh phan moi trng, v vay
khi xet anh gia khong c bo sot yeu to nao. Mat khac, co cac tac ong troi, do
o phai xac nh yeu to troi, chu ao thong qua he so tng tac. V the can phan
tch ong bo: cac ch tieu ly, hoa, sinh hoc at, nc trong at va nc ti, ham
lng thuoc tr sau, phan bon hoa hoc dung trong san xuat nong nghiep.
Khi phun thuoc, thuoc se tac ong ong thi len sau benh, cay trong va
lu tr trong at, nc va trong mau cua ngi trc tiep phun thuoc. Hoac khi
bon phan, phan se tac ong len cay trong, tch luy trong at, nc. V vay,
trong nghien cu nay can phai nghien cu nhieu mat, nhng ong thi phai
xac nh cac yeu to troi thong qua cac he so tng tac trong tac ong len cay
trong va he sinh thai.
Trc het thu thap nhng tai lieu, so lieu, cac ban o co lien quan, cac
tai lieu ve phan bon va thuoc BVTV cung nh cac tai lieu, so lieu co lien quan
en tnh Tay Ninh. Tien hanh nghien cu tai lieu, so lieu, xay dng e cng
nghien cu chung cho e tai, x ly tong hp nhng so lieu a thong ke, cuoi
cung viet bao cao ket qua nghien cu ket hp vi ve bieu o va ban o e
minh hoa cho ket qua nghien cu.
Nghien cu nay c xuat phat t moi quan he tong the gia cac ieu
kien kinh te xa hoi van hoa tap quan va cac ieu kien t nhien tnh Tay
Ninh. T o, a ra nhng hng giai quyet co hieu qua nham bao ve mo
trng ben vng Tay Ninh va gop phan phat trien kinh te.
466
S O CHUYEN OI D LNG PHAN BON VA THUOC BVTV

TRONG MOI TRNG
An h hn g cua d ln g phan bon va thuoc BVTV
Phan bon
Thuoc BVTV
MOI
TRN G
at
Ton d
Cay Tron g
Cay
s dun g
An h hn g
sc khoe
caon ngi
Cay
hap thu
Ton d
An h
hn g
chat
ln g
non g
at
Nc mat
Nc
ngam
Nc mat
at
Nc
ngam
3.4.2. Phng phap nghien cu cu the

3.4.2.1. Phng phap ieu tra
* ieu tra theo phieu tham do:
Tai moi a iem, chon 3 khu vc ai dien cho cac ho nong dan trong
oi vi tng loai nong san can nghien cu. tng khu vc nay, da theo danh
sach cac ho nong dan trong e chon ngau nhien a ch va ten 10 ho. Sau o
theo a ch tren en trc tiep cac ho va tien hanh ieu tra theo phieu ieu tra
a thiet lap san.
467
* Tong so phieu ieu tra:

3 khu vc/cay x 10 ho/khuvc/cay x 7 cay trong chnh = 210phieu
Sau o, en cac phong nong nghiep, tram BVTV, tram Khuyen nong,
tram Kiem dch, cac ai ly ban thuoc BVTV va phan bon. thuoc cac huyen,
th xa lien quan e ieu tra ket hp. Noi dung bao gom cac thong tin ve: tnh
hnh san lng cay trong, sau benh, s dung phan bon va thuoc tr sau cua
ngi nong dan cung nh cac trng hp ngo oc co xay ra.
* ieu tra lay mau thc a: mau at; mau nc (nc mat, nc ngam);
mau nong san; mau mau.
e tien hanh ieu tra tap quan canh tac cua nong dan, ac biet la ieu
tra tap quan s dung thuoc BVTV va phan bon tren cay trong phai tien hanh
ieu tra qua cac bc sau:
- Cach tien hanh ieu tra: trc het phai xay dng hoan chnh phieu ieu
tra, phieu c xay dng di dang tham hoi trc tiep ngi nong dan. Phieu
ieu tra c xay dng thanh 3 dang:
+ Phieu ieu tra tnh hnh s dung thuoc BVTV, tnh hnh s dung phan
bon.
+ Phieu ieu tra ve qua trnh canh tac cay trong, lch s at trong.
+ Phiu ieu tra ve anh hng sc khoe cua ngi nong dan khi tiep xuc
vi thuoc BVTV va phan bon.
- Noi dung cua phieu ieu tra thu thap cac thong tin (xem them phan
phu luc IX):
+ Tap quan canh tac bao gom lch s at trong, che o nc ti s
dung, giong cay trong, nang suat nong san.
+ Tnh hnh sau benh anh hng en cay trong.
+ Tnh hnh s dung phan bon va thuoc BVTV tren cay trong.
+ Anh hng cua viec s dung phan bon va thuoc BVTV en sc khoe
nong dan (cac trieu chng thng gap sau khi bon phan hoac phun thuoc).
468
+ Cac thong tin khac nh cong tac khuyen nong, cac bien phap cai thien
e nang cao nang suat va tao san pham sach cho san xuat nong nghiep.
Lien he va tiep xuc vi can bo cac phong khuyen nong, cac phong
nong nghiep, chi cuc BVTV, tram kiem dch, cac ai ly ban thuoc BVTV
va phan bon a phng cac huyen e thu thap cac thong tin, cac ban
o va so lieu co lien quan ve tnh hnh san lng, sau benh, s dung phan
bon va thuoc tr sau cua ngi nong dan cung nh cac trng hp ngo
oc a co xay ra. T o a ra nh hng ve cac a phng can nghien
cu. So nong dan c phong van am bao t le 30 - 40% tong so ho cua
ap a c chon la ien hnh.
3.4.2.2. Phng phap lay mau
Ket qua phan tch cuoi cung khong ch phu thuoc vao ket qua phan tch
trong phong th nghiem ma phu thuoc ngay t khi lay mau va cach bao quan,
khi chuyen ch va lu tr. Viec lay mau phai than trong e am bao nhng
yeu cau c ban cua mau at nc, nong san tai ni khao sat. Viec lay mau se
anh hng en ket qua phan tch mau. Do o, phai tien hanh chnh xac t khi
lay mau en bao quan chuyen ch mau ve phong th nghiem. Cac mau c
ghi nhan bang nhng ky hieu va ngi lay mau phai ghi chep nhng thong tin
ve ieu kien ngoai canh thi tiet luc lay mau.
* Phng phap lay mau mau
+ Dung cu lay mau: viec lay mau mau phu thuoc vao ngi cho mau,
ngi cho mau phai la oi tng ang canh tac tai khu vc ieu tra, khong
uong ru.... Dung cu lay mau la kim tiem cha qua s dung, bong bang, con
sat trung, lo ng.
+ Phng phap lay mau mau: tay ngi nong dan cho mau can c ra
that ky, sau o lau bang con sat trung ni lay mau, dung kim tiem lay khoang
2ml mau cho vao lo ng, ay nap lai (co nh mau va bao quan lanh t 00C
40C) gi ve ni phan tch trong ngay (Phong xet nghiem sinh hoa - Benh vien
Ch Ray).
469
* Phng phap lay mau nong san

Mau nong san lay e phan tch d lng thuoc tr sau c lay cung a
iem vi mau at va mau nc. Cac loai nong san c lay la nhng loai ang
thu hoach. Hnh thc lay la lay bon goc va chnh gia. Moi v tr lay 200g tron
lai ng bang tui nylon bao quan trong thung a co nhiet o t 0 40C.
* Phng phap lay mau at
Lay mau at theo TCVN 5297 1995, trong o lay theo hai tang t 0
15cm (hoac 20cm; 22 cm) va tang t 15 (20cm; 22cm) 40 cm.
Moi iem lay theo hai tang va lay tren nam iem cung tren mot ruong
(co ghi ro dien tch s dung va lch s at trong), tron eu mau theo tang va
lay 2.5kg.
Mau c ng trong hop nha, boc lai bang day nylon va dung day
thun buot chat, bao quan trong thung a co nhiet o t 0 40C.
* Phng phap lay mau nc
+ Dung cu lay mau nc: tuy theo cac ch tieu ma ta co cac dung cu
ng khac nhau. ay cac dung cu lay mau nc phan tch cac ch tieu ve
thuoc tr sau ng bang chai thuy tinh co boc giay than, dung tch 2 lt va dung
cu e bao quan la thung lanh, giay than, bt nylon, day thun. oi vi cac ch
tieu ly hoa ng bang chai nha bao quan nh tren.
+ Trc khi lay mau chai ng mau phai c suc ky 3 lan vi nc can
lay va con can c vao nc mat hoac nc ngam ma co cach lay khac nhau:
- oi vi nc ngam lay mau theo TCVN 6000 1995.
- oi vi nc mat: nh song, kenh, rach lay theo TCVN 5996 1995.
- Bao quan va x ly mau theo TCVN 5993 1995.
+ Tat ca cac mau sau khi lay va bao quan xong, eu c gi ngay ve
ni phan tch (Trung Tam Bao Ve Moi Trng Thanh Ho Ch Minh va Phan
Vien a Ly) e tien hanh phan tch trong ngay.
470
* Phng phap phan tch cac ch tieu ly hoa nc va at

Bang III.1: Phng phap phan tch cac ch tieu hoa ly
ST
T
Ch tieu phan tch
Phng phap phan tch
Phan tch mau nc

1
pH
pH - meter
EC
EC - meter
o uc
COD
Bicromate
BOD5
Dilution and seeding
E. coli
MPN
N - NH4+
N(ts)
P2O5 (dt)
Oniani
10
P(ts)
Oniani
11
K(ts)
TOA - meter
So mau (Nessler)
kjendahl
AAS
Phan tch mau at

12
N - NH4+
13
N(ts)
14
P2O5(dt)
Oniani
15
P(ts)
So mau
16
K(ts)
So mau (Nessler)
kjendahl
AAS
* Phng phap phan tch mau mau

Thiet b: May o quang (may quang pho ke) co bc song 405nm.
Hoa chat: DTNB: Dithiobis (nitrobenzoate)
471
Butyrylthiocholine iodide
Thc hien:
Butyrylthiocholine + H2O
Thiocholine + DTNB
Cholinesterase
thiocholine + butyrate
2 nitro-5- mercaptobenzoate
3.4.2.3. Phng phap x ly mau va phan tch thuoc tr sau trong mau
* X ly mau:
+ Mau nc:
- Chiet bang dung moi n hexan
- Lam khan bang sulphat natri, sau o em co quay en can. nh mc
1ml bang n-hexan.
+ Mau at va nong san:
- Chiet mau vi dung moi axeton bang phng phap chiet soxhlet, sau
o chiet ra khoi dung moi axeton bang nhexan.
- Loai cac chat hu c va mau bang cach cho dung dch mau va dung
moi chiet n - hexan qua cot silica mesh 100 200.
- Giai hap bang hon hp dichoromethan va nhexan.
- Lam khan bang sunphat natri, sau o em co quay en can. nh mc
1ml bang nhexan.
* Phan tch mau:
S dung phng phap sac ky kh
Ho chlor hu c
Thiet b:
Perkin Elmer 1022S Plus
Bm mau: Che o chia dong 3500C

Cot:
Cot mao quan 30m x 0,32mm x 0,25mm
Nhiet o: Nhiet o au 1500C, nhiet o cuoi 2800C, thi gian lu 23

phut
472
au do:
ECD (Electron Capture Detecter)
Kh mang: N2
Ho lan hu c:
Thiet b:
Perkin Elmer 1022S Plus
Bm mau: Che o chia dong 3500C

Cot:
Cot mao quan 30m x 0.32mm x 0.25mm
Nhiet o: Nhiet o au 1600C, nhiet o cuoi 2600C, thi gian lu 22

phut
au do:
NPD (Nitrogen Phosphorus Detecter)
Kh mang: N2, kh nen, H2

Tien trnh thc hien:
a iem ieu tra: 08 huyen va 01 th xa thuoc tnh Tay Ninh phan bo
nh sau:
1. Rau an la (huyen Chau Thanh)
2. Rau an trai (huyen Trang Bang)
3. au phong (huyen Go Dau)
4. Thuoc la (huyen Ben Cau va Trang Bang)
5. Lua (huyen Ben Cau va Trang Bang)
6. Nhan (huyen Hoa Thanh)
7. Mang cau (huyen Hoa Thanh)
8. Ma (huyen Tan Chau va Dng Minh Chau)
Thi gian ieu tra: t ngay 23/3 en ngay 27/3/2001.
473
Bang III.2: So lng mau va so ch tieu phan tch

Stt
Loai mau
n v So
tnh lng
So ch tieu
phan tch
Tong so ch tieu
phan tch
01
Nong san
mau
10
80
02
at (mua nang)
mau
42
336
03
at (mua ma)
mau
30
240
04
at (PT. KLN)
mau
20
05
Nc mat (mua nang):
mau
10
+ PT. LHVS
10
12
120
+ thuoc tr sau
10
60
12
120
06
Nc mat (mua ma)
mau
10
07
Nc ngam (mua nang):
mau
10
+ PT. LHVS
10
80
+ thuoc tr sau
10
70
08
Nc ngam (mua ma)
mau
10
11
110
09
Mau
mau
Tong cong
mau
76
1243
3.4.2.5. Phng phap mo hnh toan

e d oan lng thuoc BVTV va kha nang lan truyen cua chung mot
so vung at trong chuyen canh tren a ban tnh Tay Ninh chung toi s dung
mo hnh LEVEL III, V.2.17, Canada. Mo hnh nay da vao mo hnh Fugacity
va a c ap dung Viet Nam trong e tai: Xay dng nh hng quy
hoach quan ly va x ly chat thai ran tnh Ba Ra Vung Tau; trong cac bao cao
anh gia tac ong moi trng cua VITTEP.
474
Mo hnh Fugacity
Fugacity (f) la mot khai niem hoa ly c ban c thao luan theo cac
thuat ng mi va c xac nh nh la xu hng cua mot chat hoa hoc chuyen
t pha nay sang pha khac. Tnh chat nay co the c tnh theo n v ap suat
(Pa), gia s ta anh gia mot mo hnh 1km2, goi la mot n v the gii c chia
ra thanh sau phan vi cac thanh phan a xac nh nh: khong kh, nc, at,
ca, bun l lng va bun lang. Ngi ta cung a ra khai niem dung lng moi
trng cho moi phan (Z = mol.m-3.Pa-1), t o nong o ly thuyet co the c
tnh sau s phat tan cua mot lng chat nao o (C = mol/m3).
C= f.Z
Can bang se at c khi cac fugacity la bang nhau trong tat ca cac bo
phan:
f1 = f2
Nh vay
C1/Z1 = C2/Z2
Va
C1/Z1 = C2/Z2 = K12
K12 la he so phan bo cua chat gia hai pha.

Dung lng cua moi phan (Z) co the c xac nh nh la ham cua cac
he so phan bo. Neu co can bang, tron lan tot, khong co phan ng va khong co
chuyen ong ngc th s phan bo khoi lng va nong o tng oi co the tnh
toan c.
Trong thc te khi ap dung mo hnh fugacity (mc o 1) ta co the biet hoa
chat o se nam bo phan nao nhieu nhat va nong o cao nhat trong n v the
gii o la au.
Mc 2 cung xet tai trang thai can bang va no bao gom ca cac phan ng
hoa va chuyen ong ngc. ong hoc cua s chuyen hoa co the tnh toan t tai
lieu va mot ma tran, no cho biet thi gian ton tai trong mot moi trng nao o.
Mc 3 la mot he thong khong can bang phc tap hn, no cho biet s van
chuyen gia cac pha.
Tom lai, qui trnh nghien cu va phng phap thc hien e tai c the
hien qua s o sau:
475
bang
476
Phn IV: KT QU NGHIN CU

Chng 1: iu kin t nhin v c im kinh t x hi tnh Ty Ninh
1.1 iu kin t nhin
1.2 c im kinh t x hi
1.3 Hin trng mi trng tnh Ty Ninh
1.3.1 Hin trng mi trng th v cng nghip
1.3.2 Hin trng mi trng nng nghip v nng thn

1.3.3 Hin trng rng v a dng sinh hc
1.3.4 Thin tai v s c mi trng
1.3.5 Nhng vn e da pht trin bn vng tnh Ty Ninh
Chng 2: Hin trng v qui hoch ngnh nng nghip ca tnh Ty Ninh
2.1 Hin trng ngnh nng nghip trng trt
2.1.1 Gi tr sn xut
2.1.2 Nhp pht trin din tch gieo trng
2.1.3 Hin trng din tch t nng nghip, din tch gieo trng
2.1.4 Xy dng v khai thc vng nguyn liu
2.1.5 Tiu th sn phm trng trt
2.1.6 Thc trng u t
2.1.7 Tim nng v trin vng ngnh trng trt trong nng nghip
2.2 Qui hoch ngnh nng nghip 2001 2010
2.2.1 Phng hng
2.2.2 Mc tiu chung
2.2.3 Cc ch tiu ch yu 2001 2010
2.2.4 Mt s nhim v v gii php ch yu
Chng 3: Tnh hnh s dng thuc bo v thc vt v phn bn ha hc
trong sn xut nng nghip Ty Ninh
477
3.1 Tnh hnh chung cc loi cy trng nng nghip

3.2 Cc loi nng sn chnh
3.2.1 La
3.2.2 Rau
3.2.3 u phng
3.2.4 Thuc l
3.2.5 Ma
3.2.6 Cy n tri
3.3. Nhn xt
Chng 4: Hin trng cht lng cc ngun nc mt - nc ngm do nh
hng d lng phn bn v thuc bo v thc vt Ty Ninh
4.1 Kt qu phn tch cc ch tiu l ha, vi sinh, thuc BVTV trong nc mt
4.1.1 nh gi d lng phn bn trong nc mt (ma kh)
4.1.2 nh gi d lng phn bn trong nc mt (ma ma)
4.1.3 nh gi d lng thuc BVTV trong nc mt
4.2 Kt qu phn tch cc ch tiu l ha v thuc tr su trong nc ngm
4.2.1 nh gi d lng phn bn trong nc ngm (ma kh)
4.2.2 nh gi d lng phn bn trong nc ngm (ma ma)
4.2.3 nh gi d lng thuc BVTV trong nc ngm
4.3 nh gi cht lng ngun nc mt, nc ngm
4.3.1 Cht lng nc mt
4.3.2 Cht lng nc ngm
4.4 nh gi chung
Chng 5: Hin trng nhim mi trng t do nh hng d lng phn
bn v thuc bo v thc vt ti cc a im trng mt s loi
cy nng nghip Ty Ninh
478
5.1 Tnh hnh s dng phn bn ca nng dn Ty Ninh

5.1.1 nh gi d lng phn bn trong t trng rau
5.1.2 nh gi d lng phn bn trong t trng ma
5.1.3 Cy n tri
5.1.4. nh gi d lng phn bn trong t trng u phng
5.1.5 nh gi d lng phn bn trong t trng thuc l
5.1.6 nh gi d lng phn bn trong t trng la
5.1.7 nh gi cht lng t trng Ty Ninh
5.2. Tn d thuc BVTV trong t v tho lun m hnh ton
5.2.1. La
5.2.2. Cy n tri
5.2.3. Ma
5.2.4. Rau
5.2.5. Cy u phng
5.2.6. Cy thuc l
5.3. D on lng thuc BVTV v kh nng lan truyn thuc BVTV
trn mt s vng t chuyn canh tnh Ty Ninh
Cc tnh hung nghin cu
Kt qu d on
Vng trng rau chuyn canh (TH1)
Vng trng la chuyn canh (TH2)
Vng trng u phng (TH3)
D on lng thuc BVTV v kh nng lan truyn thuc BVTV ti
vng t trng ma huyn Dng Minh Chu
5.4. ng vt khng xng trong t trng tnh Ty Ninh
5.4.1.Phng php nghin cu
5.4.2 Kt qu
479
Chng 6: nh hng ca d lng thuc bo v thc vt trn mt s loi

nng sn chnh Ty Ninh
6.1 Lng tch ly thuc bo v thc vt trong nng sn
6.1.1. Nhm phosphor hu c
6.1.2. Nhm chlor hu c
6.2. Kt qu phn tch d lng thuc BVTV v nh hng ca chng
trn mt s loi nng sn
6.2.1. Kt qu phn tch d lng thuc tr su trn mu ma v kho st
s nh hng ca thuc tr su n s sinh trng ca cy ma
6.2.2 nh gi d lng thuc BVTV trn ht la huyn Bn Cu,
tnh Ty Ninh
6.2.3. nh gi d lng thuc BVTV trn tri mng cu tnh Ty Ninh
6.2.4. nh gi d lng thuc BVTV trn l thuc l Ty Ninh
Chng 7: nh hng ca d lng thuc bo v thc vt v phn bn n
sc khe ngi nng dn Ty Ninh
7.1 Nhng biu hin cp tnh
7.1.1 nh gi nh hng ca thuc BVTV v phn bn n sc khe
ngi nng dn trng rau
ngi nng dn trng ma
ngi nng dn trng cy n tri
ngi nng dn trng la
7.1.5 nh gi nh hng ca s dng thuc BVTV v phn bn n
sc khe ca nng dn trng thuc l
7.2 Nhng biu hin mn tnh
Phn V: KT LUN KIN NGH
480
V.1. Kt lun
V.1.1. Tp qun, hin trng s dng thuc BVTV ca nng dn Ty Ninh
V.1.1.1 thuc BVTV ca nng dn trng rau
V.1.1.2 ca nng dn trng ma
V.1.1.3 ca nng dn trng cy n tri
V.1.1.4. ca nng dn trng u phng
V.1.1.5. ca nng dn trng la
V.1.1.6. ca nng dn trng thuc l
V.1.2 Tp qun s dng phn bn ca nng dn Ty Ninh
V.1.2.1 ca nng dn trng rau
V.1.2.2 ca nng dn trng ma
V.1.2.3 ca nng dn trng cy n tri
V.1.2.4. ca nng dn trng u phng
V.1.2.5. ca nng dn trng la
V.1.2.6 ca nng dn trng thuc l
V.2. Kin ngh
V.2.1. y mnh cng tc qun l thuc BVTV v phn bn
V.2.2. y mnh cng tc hun luyn nng dn
V.2.3. Hn ch ti
Ti liu tham kho
Ph lc
Ghi ch: Bn c th kt cu khc i v, chng, phn. V d c th c
Chng 1: M u; Chng 2: Tng quan; Chng 3: Ni dung, phng php,
mc ch nghin cu; Chng 4: Kt qu nghin cu 1; Chng 5: Kt qu
nghin cu 2; Chng 6: Kt qu nghin cu 3 ; Chng 7: Kt lun v
Kin ngh; TLTK; Ph lc.
481
18.6.2. e cng viet bao cao nghien cu bao ve luan van thac sy
(ngun Nguyn Th B Nm)
TN TI: nh gi tim nng t ai tnh C Mau
Trang Ba
Trang ph ba
Li cm t
Danh mc cc ch vit tt
Danh mc cc bng
Danh mc cc s , th, hnh v
PHN M U
Chng mt: TNG QUAN CC KT QU NGHIN CU
I.1 CC NGHIN CU V TI NGUYN T V NH GI T
AI
I.1.1 Cc nghin cu v t v lp bn t Vit Nam
I.1.2 Cc nghin cu v nh gi t ai Vit Nam
I.1.3 Cc nghin cu v t v lp bn t BSCL v C Mau
I.1.4 Cc nghin cu v nh gi t ai BSCL v C Mau
I.2 NHNG KHI NIM, NGUYN TC V TIN TRNH C BN
NH GI T AI CA FAO
1.2.1 Tng quan v nh gi t ai trn th gii v s ra i ca
phng php nh gi t ai ca FAO
I.2.2 Mt s khi nim c s dng trong nh gi t ai ca FAO
I.2.3 Cc nguyn tc trong nh gi t
I.2.4 Tin trnh nh gi kh nng thch hp t ai
I.3 NG DNG K THUT GIS (GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION
SYSTEM) V M HNH HO TRONG NH GI TI
NGUYN T
482
I.3.1 Tng quan

I.3.2 Gii thiu v h thng nh gi t t ng (automated land
evaluation system - ALES)
I.3.3 Tng quan v cc bc nh gi t trong ALES
Chng hai: I TNG, NI DUNG V PHNG PHP
NGHIN CU
II.1 MC TIU NGHIN CU
II.2 I TNG V PHM VI NGHIN CU
II.2.1 i tng nghin cu
II.2.2 Phm vi nghin cu
II.3 NI DUNG NGHIN CU
II.4 PHNG PHP NGHIN CU
II.4.1 Phng php lun
II.4.2 Phng php v k thut chi tit
PHN TH HAI: KT QU NGHIN CU V THO LUN
Chng ba: C IM VNG NGHIN CU
III.1 C IM MI TRNG T NHIN
III.1.1 V tr a l
III.1.2 c im kh hu
III.1.3 c im a hnh v a cht
III.1.3.1 a hnh
III.1.3.2 a cht
III.1.4 c im thu vn
III.1.5 c im ti nguyn sinh vt
III.2 C IM KINH T X HI
III.2.1 Dn s v lao ng
483
III.2.2 Tnh hnh kinh t, c s h tng

III.2.2.1 Tnh hnh kinh t
III.2.2.2 V c s h tng
III.2.3 Phng hng sn xut ca ton tnh
Chng bn: C IM T TRONG MI QUAN H VI
MI TRNG T NHIN
IV.1 C IM TH NHNG
IV.1.1 Tng qut v phn loi t C Mau
IV.1.2 c im cc loi t
IV.1.2.1 Nhm t ct
IV.1.2.2 Nhm t mn
IV.1.2.3 Nhm t phn
IV.1.2.4 Nhm t than bn
IV.1.2.5 Nhm t bi bi
IV.2 NH GI CHUNG V QU T
IV.2.1 V quy m v phn b cc nhm t
IV.2.1.1 Quy m cc nhm t
IV.2.1.2 Phn b t theo cc huyn, th
IV.2.2 V cht lng t
Chng nm: BN N V T AI V C IM T AI
V.1 TNG QUAN
V.2 LA CHN V PHN CP CC C TNH T AI
V.3 BN N V T AI V C IM T AI
V.3.1 Phng php xy dng bn n v t ai
V.3.2 c im t ai
484
Chng su: NH GI HIN TRNG S DNG T V LA

CHN CC H THNG S DNG T
VI.1 HIN TRNG S DNG T V C CU CY TRNG
NNG LM NGHIP
VI.1.1 Hin trng s dng t
VI.1.2 C cu cy trng nng lm nghip C Mau
VI.1.3 Cc loi hnh s dng t nng lm nghip
VI.2 H THNG S DNG T
VI.2.1 Khi qut v h thng s dng t
VI.2.2 Xc nh cc h thng s dng t
VI.3 HIU QU SN XUT CA H THNG S DNG T
VI.3.1 Mc u t ca cc h thng s dng t
VI.3.1.1 u t ban u ca cc h thng s dng t
VI.3.1.2 u t vt t hng nm ca cc h thng s dng t
VI.3.1.3 Lao ng v chi ph thu mn my mc ca cc LUS
VI.3.1.4 Tng chi ph u t hng nm ca cc LUS
VI.3.2 Nng sut, sn lng hng nm ca cc h thng s dng t
VI.3.3 Hiu qu sn xut ca cc h thng s dng t
VI.4 LA CHN CC H THNG S DNG T V LOI HNH
S DNG T C TRIN VNG
VI.4.1 Cc c s la chn
VI.4.2 La chn cc h thng s dng t
VI.4.3 La chn cc loi hnh s dng t c trin vng
VI.4.4 c im cc loi hnh s dng t
VII.3 YU CU V T AI CA CC LOI HNH S DNG T
Chng by: NH GI KH NNG THCH HP T AI CHO CC
MC TIU SN XUT NNG LM NGHIP
VII.1 MC TIU V TIN TRNH NH GI T AI
485
VII.1.1 Mc tiu ca nh gi t ai
VII.1.2 Tin trnh kt hp so snh gia t ai vi yu cu ca s
dng t
VII.2 XY DNG M HNH TRONG ALES
VII.2.1 Yu cu nh gi theo cht lng t ai trong ALES
VII.2.2 Xy dng m hnh trong ALES
VII.3 NH GI KH NNG THCH HP T AI
VII.3.1 Phn loi kh nng thch hp t ai v phng php xc
nh cc mc thch hp
VII.3.1.1 Phn loi kh nng thch hp
VII.3.1.2 Phn cp kh nng thch hp t ai C Mau
VII.3.1.3 Phng php xc nh cc cp thch hp cho cc
n v t ai
VII.3.2 Kt qu nh gi kh nng thch hp t ai cho cc LUT
c chn.
VII.3.3 nh gi chung v kh nng b tr ca cc loi hnh s
dng t
Chng tm: XUT S DNG T CHO CC MC TIU SN
XUT NNG LM NGHIP
VIII.1 PHN VNG S DNG T NNG LM NGHIP
VIII.1.1 Tng quan cc vng trc y
VIII.1.2 Phn vng s dng t nng lm nghip
VIII.2 XUT S DNG T NNG LM NGHIP
VIII.2.1 Nguyn tc xut
VIII.2.2 xut kh nng s dng t nng lm nghip
Chng chn: MT S VN V MI TRNG CN QUAN
TM TRONG S DNG T C MAU
486
IX.1 SUY THOI H SINH THI RNG

IX.1.1. Din bin din tch rng
IX.1.2. V cht lng h sinh thi rng
IX.2 QU TRNH XI L V BI P VEN BIN
IX.2 SUY THOI MI TRNG T
IX.2.1 Phn ho
IX.2.2 Mn ho
IX.3 SUY THOI MI TRNG NC
PHN TH BA: KT LUN V KIN NGH
TI LIU THAM KHO
PH LC
18.6.3. cng vit lun n v tm tt lun n tin s chuyn ngnh
(Ngun: Ban o to sau i hc HQG HCM)
Lun n ca nghin cu sinh trnh HQG-HCM phi tha mn cc yu
cu v ni dung v hnh thc quy nh ti iu 20 Quy ch ca B Gio Dc.
18.6.3.1 V b cc
S chng ca mi lun n ty thuc vo tng chuyn ngnh v ti
c th, nhng thng thng bao gm nhng phn v chng sau:
M U: Trnh by l do chn ti, mc ch, i tng v
phm vi nghin cu, ngha khoa hc v thc tin ca ti nghin cu.
TNG QUAN: Phn tch nh gi cc cng trnh nghin cu c
ca cc tc gi trong v ngoi nc lin quan mt thit n ti lun n ;
nu nhng vn cn tn ti; ch ra nhng vn m ti lun n cn tp
trung nghin cu, gii quyt.
NHNG NGHIN CU THC NGHIM HOC L THUYT:
Trnh by c s l thuyt, l lun, gi thuyt khoa hc v phng php
nghin cu c s dng trong lun n.
487
TRNH BY, NH GI BN LUN CC KT QU: M t

ngn gn cng vic nghin cu khoa hc tin hnh, cc s liu nghin
cu khoa hc hoc s liu thc nghim. Phn bn lun phi cn c vo cc
dn liu khoa hc thu c trong qu trnh nghin cu ca ti lun n
hoc i chiu vi nghin cu ca cc tc gi khc thng qua cc ti liu
tham kho.
KT LUN: Trnh by nhng kt qu mi ca lun n mt cch
ngn gn khng c li bn v bnh lun thm.
KIN NGH V NHNG NGHIN CU TIP THEO.
DANH MC CNG TRNH CNG B CA TC GI: Lit k
cc bi bo, cng trnh cng b ca tc gi v ni dung ca ti lun
n, theo trnh t thi gian cng b.
DANH MC TI LIU THAM KHO: Ch bao gm ti liu c
trch dn, s dng v cp ti bn lun trong lun n.
PH LC.
18.6.3.2 V trnh by
Lun n phi c trnh by ngn gn, r rng, mch lc, sch s,
khng c ty xa, c nh s trang, nh s bng biu, hnh v, th.
Tc gi lun n cn c li cam oan danh d v cng trnh khoa hc ny ca
mnh. Lun n ng ba cng, in ch nh du ting Vit (xem ph lc
10). Trang ph ba (title page) xem ph lc.
1. Son tho vn bn
Lun n s dng ch Unicod (Times New Romand) c ch 13 ca h
son tho Winword hoc tng ng; mt ch bnh thng, khng
c nn hoc ko dn khong cch gia cc ch; dn dng t ch
1,5lines; l trn 3,5 cm; l di 3 cm; l tri 3,5 cm; l phi 2cm. S trang
c nh gia, pha trn u mi trang giy. Nu c bng biu, hnh v
trnh by theo chiu ngang kh giy th u bng l l tri ca trang, nhng
nn hn ch trnh by theo cch ny.
488
Lun n c in trn mt mt giy trng kh A4 (210 x 297 mm),

khng qu 45.000 ch (khng k ph lc). i vi cc lnh vc khoa hc x
hi th lun n c th n 60.000 ch.
2. Tiu mc
Cc tiu mc ca lun n c trnh by v nh s thnh nhm ch
s, nhiu nht gm bn ch s vi s th nht ch s chng (v d: 4.1.2.1
ch tiu mc 1 nhm tiu mc 2 mc 1 chng 4). Ti mi nhm, tiu mc
phi c t nht hai tiu mc, ngha l khng th c tiu mc 2.1.1 m khng
c tiu c 2.1.2 tip theo.
3. Bng biu, hnh v, phng trnh
Vic nh s bng biu, hnh v, phng trnh phi gn vi s
chng; v d Hnh 3.4 c ngha l hnh th 4 trong chng 3. Mi th,
bng biu ly t cc ngun khc phi c trch dn y , v d Ngun:
B Ti chnh 1996. Ngun c trch dn phi c lit k chnh xc trong
danh mc Ti liu tham kho. u ca bng biu ghi pha trn bng, u
ca hnh v ghi pha di hnh. Thng thng, nhng bng ngn v
th phi i lin vi phn ni dung cp ti cc bng v th ny ln th
nht. Cc bng di c th nhng trang ring nhng cng phi tip theo
ngay phn ni dung cp ti bng ny ln u tin.
Cc bng rng vn nn trnh by theo chiu ng di 297 mm ca
trang giy, chiu rng ca trang giy c th hn 210 mm. Ch gp trang
giy ny nh minh ha Hnh 18.1 sao cho s v u ca hnh v hoc
bng vn c th nhn thy ngay m khng cn m rng t giy. Cch lm
ny cng gip trnh b ng vo gy ca lun n phn mp gp bn trong
hoc xn ri mt phn mp gp bn ngoi. Tuy nhin nn hn ch s dng
cc bng qu rng ny.
489

195
160
297
Hnh
185
Hnh 18.1: Cch gp trang giy rng hn 210 mm
Trong mi trng hp, bn l bao quanh phn vn bn v bng

biu vn nh quy nh ca HQG TP HCM ti khon 1 (Quy nh vit
lun n).
i vi nhng trang giy c chiu ng hn 297 mm (bn , bn
v) th c th trong mt phong b cng nh bn trong ba sau lun n.
Trong lun n cc hnh v phi c v sch s bng mc en
c th sao chp li; c nh s v ghi y u ; c ch phi bng c
ch s dng trong vn bn lun n. Khi cp n cc bng biu v hnh
v phi nu r s ca hnh v bng biu , v d c nu trong Bng
4.1 hoc (xem Hnh 3.2) m khng c vit c nu trong bng
di y hoc trong th ca X v Y sau.
Vic trnh by phng trnh ton hc trn mt dng n hoc mt
dng kp l ty , tuy nhin phi thng nht trong ton lun n. Khi k hiu
xut hin ln u tin th phi gii thch v n v tnh phi i km ngay
trong phng trnh c k hiu . Nu cn thit, danh mc ca tt c cc k
hiu, ch vit tt v ngha ca chng cn c lit k v phn u ca
lun n. Tt c cc phng trnh cn c nh s v trong ngoc n
t bn pha l phi. Nu mt nhm phng trnh mang cng mt s th
490
nhng s ny cng c trong ngoc, hoc mi phng trnh trong nhm

phng trnh (5.1) c th c nh s l (5.1.1), (5.1.2), (5.1.3).
4. Vit tt
Khng lm dng vic vit tt trong lun n. Ch vit tt nhng t, cm
t hoc thut ng c s dng nhiu ln trong lun n. Khng vit tt
nhng cm t di, nhng mnh ; khng vit tt nhng cm t t xut hin
trong lun n. Nu cn vit tt nhng thut ng, tn cc c quan, t chc
th c vit tt sau ln vit th nht c km theo ch vit tt trong ngoc
n. Nu lun n c nhiu ch vit tt th phi c bng danh mc ch vit
tt (xp theo th t ABC) phn u lun n.
5. Ti liu tham kho v cch trch dn
Mi kin, khi nim c ngha, mang tnh cht gi khng phi
ca ring tc gi v mi tham kho khc phi c trch dn v ghi r
ngun trong danh mc ti liu tham kho ca lun n. Phi nu r c vic s
dng nhng xut hoc kt qu ca tc gi. Nu s dng ti liu ca ngi
khc v ca ng tc gi (bng biu, hnh v, cng thc, th, phng
trnh, tng) m khng ch dn tc gi v ngun ti liu th lun n
khng c duyt bo v.
Khng trch dn nhng kin thc ph bin, mi ngi iu bit cng nh
khng lm lun n nng n vi nhng tham kho trch dn. Vic trch dn,
tham kho ch yu nhm tha nhn ngun ca nhng tng c gi tr v gip
ngi c theo c mch suy ngh ca tc gi, khng lm tr ngi vic c.
Nu khng c iu kin tip cn c mt ti liu gc m phi trch
dn thng qua mt ti liu khc th phi nu r cch trch dn ny, ng thi
ti liu gc khng c lit k trong danh mc Ti liu tham kho ca
lun n.
Khi cn trch dn mt on t hn hai cu hoc bn dng nh my th
c th s dng du ngoc kp m u v kt thc phn trch dn. Nu
cn trch dn di hn th phi tch phn ny thnh mt on ring khi phn
ni dung trang trnh by vi l tri li vo thm 2 cm. Khi ny m u v
kt thc on trch ny khng phi s dng du ngoc kp.
Cch xp danh mc ti liu tham kho xem ph lc 14 Hng dn
ny. Vic trch dn l theo s th t ca ti liu Danh mc Ti liu tham
491
kho v c t trong ngoc vung, khi cn c c s trang, v d [15,

tr. 314-315]. i vi phn c trch dn t nhiu ti liu khc nhau.
6. Ph lc ca lun n
Phn ny bao gm nhng ni dung cn thit nhm minh ha hoc b
tr cho ni dung lun n nh s liu, mu biu, tranh nh Nu lun n s
dng nhng cu tr li cho m bn cu hi th bn cu hi mu ny phi
c a vo phn Ph lc dng nguyn bn dng iu tra, thm d
kin; khng c tm tt hoc sa i. Cch tnh ton mu trnh by tm
tt trong cc bng biu cng cn nu trong Ph lc ca lun n. Ph lc
khng c dy hn phn chnh ca lun n.
Hnh 18.2 di y l v d minh ha b cc ca lun n v mc lc.
Nn sp xp sao cho mc lc ca lun n gn trong mt trang giy.
MUC LUC
Trang phu ba
Li cam oan
Muc luc
Danh muc cac ky hieu, cac ch viet tat
Danh muc cac bang
Danh muc cac hnh ve, o th
M AU
Chng 1 TONG QUAN
1.1
1.2
Chng 2 -.
2.1
2.1.1.
2.1.2..
2.2
.
Chng 4 KET QUA VA BAN LUAN
KET LUAN VA KIEN NGH
DANH MUC CONG TRNH CUA TAC GIA
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
PHU LUC
Trang
Hnh 18.2. V d v trang mc lc ca mt lun n
492
7. Tm tt lun n
Tm tt lun n phi in chp hoc in typ kch thc 140 x 210 mm
(kh A4 gp i). Tm tt lun n phi c trnh by r rng, mch lc,
sch s, khng c ty xa. S ca bng biu, hnh v, th phi c cng
s nh trong lun n.
Tm tt lun n c trnh by nhiu nht trong 24 trang in trn 2 mt
giy, c ch Vni-Time 11 ca h son tho Winword hoc tng ng. Mt
ch bnh thng, khng c nn hoc ko dn khong cch gia cc ch.
Ch gin dng l Exactly 17pt. L trn, l di, l tri, l phi u l 2cm.
Cch bng biu trnh by theo chiu ngang kh giy th u bng l l tri ca
trang. Tm tt lun n phi phn nh trung thc kt cu, b cc v ni dung
ca lun n, phi ghi y ton vn kt lun ca lun n.
Cui bn tm tt lun n l danh mc cc cng trnh ca tc gi
cng b lin quan n ti lun n vi y thng tin tn tc gi, nm
xut bn, tn bi bo, tn tp ch, tp, s, s trang ca bi bo trn tp ch.
Danh mc ny c th in trn trang ba ca tm tt lun n.
Cu hi:
1. Nhng yu t cn ch khi vit mt bo co nghin cu ?
2. Cch sp xp ti liu tham kho trong mt bo co nghin cu nh
th no ?
3. Mt bo co nghin cu y gm nhng phn no ?
4. Phn no trong bo co nghin cu l quan trng nht ? Ti sao ?
5. S ging v khc nhau gia cc bi bo co nghin cu l g ?
6. Trc khi vit mt bo co nghin cu th ngi nghin cu cn
phi vit mt dn bi chi tit nh th no ?
7. Ti sao phi vit mt dn bi chi tit sau mi vit bo co nghin
cu ?
8. Bo co nghin cu c s dng lm g ?
9. Tm quan trng ca mt bo co nghin cu ?
10. Nhng thun li v kh khn khi vit mt bo co nghin cu l g ?
Ti liu tham kho:
1 . V CAO M, 2003, Phng Php Lun Nghin Cu Khoa Hc,
493

NXB Gio Dc.
Ch Minh. H Ch Minh.
494
Phng phap nghien cu
S O QUA TRNH NGHIEN CU THC HIEN E TAI
Phng phap
Luan
Phng phap
Thong ke bang mo
hnh toan
Phng phap
cu the
PP thu thap, bien

hoi, phan tch.
ieu
Kien
TN
Hien
Trang
TN
MT
Phng phap
ieu tra
Lap
Phieu
Thu
thap
thong
tin
X ly mau
Phng phap
lay mau
Thong
ke so
lieu
Mau
at
Mau
nc
Mau
nong
san
Mau
mau
KT
Tong Hp
476
Thao Luan
Hoan thanh e tai
Phng phap
phan tch mau
Ch tieu
ly, hoa,
vi sinh
D
lng
thuoc
BVTV
Chng 19
CCH VIT BO CO TM TT,

T KHO V CCH TRNH BY
BO CO KHOA HC TI HI NGH
Mt Bo co khoa hc du l ti cp no, trng, vin, b hay
nh nc, hay quc t, cng nh nhng tiu lun, kho lun mn hc, lun
vn tt nghip i hc, lun n thc s, tin s, tin s khoa hc... i km
vi bo co y (full paper) thng phi c bo co tm tt hay tm tt
ca bo co (summary of report hay summaried report hoc abstract of
paper). Sau y xin gii thiu cho bn c lm quen cc dng ny.
19.1. VIT BO CO TM TT
Mt bo co tm tt (summaried report- BCTT) thng l loi bo
co ngn, tm tt nhng ni dung chnh ca bo co khoa hc y (full
report).
Loi bo co ny do tng c quan nghim thu ti hay c quan
qun l khoa hc, c quan qun l o to (trng i hc, vin nghin cu)
quy nh.
Tn bi bo co phi y ging ht nh bo co chnh, khng
c thm bt, du ch l mt t hay mt du phy.
V dung lng, nhn chung, vi bo co chnh (y ) khong 100
trang th BCTT khong 22-30 trang.
Trong BCTT khng cn a nhiu hnh nh minh ho vo m ch
cn a mt vi hnh nh i din thi.
Cc bng biu v th nn a tng i yu cu rt ngn li vn.
Cch hnh vn phi ngn gn sc tch, r rng dt khot.
Cc mc, chng mc cn bo m y nh bo co chnh.
494
Khng cn c ph lc.
Ci c bn nht l BCTT phi trung thnh tuyt i vi bo co chnh.
ng thnh quyn ring (nm ngoi bo co chnh hay i km bo
co chnh. V d, bo co ti "nh hng tn d thuc BVTV trong t,
nc ln cy trng v sc kho ngi dn", ng thi vi Bo co chnh
dy 300 trang, cn c bo co tm tt cng tn nhng ch c 36 trang. V d
khc, lun n tin s phi i km vi mt bo co tm tt lun n khng qu
22 trang. Mt khc, ngay trong lun n tin s hay thc s li c thm tm tt
bo co (xem phn di).
19.2. CCH VIT BI TM TT CA MT BO CO
Ti sao li phi vit bi tm tt? Bi v, mt mt, nhng ngi qun
l, cc nh lnh o v nhng ngi lm khoa hc mun tm hiu ti,
cng trnh nghin cu nhng khng th c thi gian v iu kin ngi c
ht bo co chnh. BCTT s gip h lm iu trong vng mi lm pht.
Mt khc, nh c BCTT m ta c th giao lu thng tin cho nhau, tm
hiu cng lnh vc, hoc mun cng b kt qu ca mnh cho th gii bit.
T , nhng ngi quan tm s tm hiu k hn bi bo co y . Ngy
nay, Website trn mng Internet s gip ta c lc vn ny. C mi mt
pht trn th gii li c mt sng to, pht minh, nu chng ta khng lm
cch ny th chng ta s khng hi nhp c th gii.
Khc vi Bo co chnh, bi tm tt mt ca mt bo co thng c 3 loi:
Tm tt bo co (summary)
Tm tt bo co ngn (abstract)
Tm tt bo co cc ngn (bulleting) hay thng tin ngn ng trn
cc tp ch chuyn ngnh.
19.2.1. Cch vit tm tt bo co
y l mt bi vn (text) ngn nhng khi ngi ta khng c thi gian
c c ton bi bo co chnh, h vn c th hiu c ni dung chnh
ca bi bo co chnh hay lun vn y.
495
V dung lng, nhn chung, vi bo co chnh (y ) khong 100

trang th tm tt bo co (summary) khong 1 n 2 trang; nu bo co
chnh 30 trang th summary ch trang.
Trong Summary c:
+ M (mt cu), gii thiu dn nhp, phng php nghin cu.
+ Thn bi l ni dung bo co, v nhng trng tm ca bo co
chnh.
+ Kt lun (1 2 cu).
Cch hnh vn phi ht sc ngn gn, sc tch, r rang, dt khot.
Ci c bn nht m summary cn t c l summary du rt
ngn, nhng phi trung thnh tuyt i vi bo co chnh v ni ln c
trng tm, v ni dung chnh ca bo co chnh.
Phn bit v khng nhm vi dn bi chi tit ca bo co, c nhiu
ngi mc sai lm ny.
Ngn ng: Ting Vit v ting Anh (hay Php) do c quan qun l
quy nh.
Sau y l mt v d:
Tm tt LUN N TIN S
Tn ti: "Nghin cu qu trnh lan truyn, bin ng v nh hng
ca c cht ln h sinh thi nng nghip vng phn ng Thp Mi".
t phn ng bng sng Cu Long c ci to v s dng rt
a dng trn quy m ln. Nhng vn kh khn ti ch lin quan n s
c hi do chua phn c nghin cu l thuyt v thc nghim t nhiu
nm qua. Tuy nhin, nhng kinh nghim c kt trong lnh vc ny ch tp
trung ch yu vo li ch cc b ca nhng vng t phn. Sau nhiu nm
ci to v chuyn i nhng vng t phn b hoang thnh nhng vng t
canh tc, nhiu vn xut hin nhng vng rng ln k cn do s lan
truyn cc axit v sn phm t chng trong h thng knh rch ng bng
496
sng Cu Long. y l lnh vc mi ang c cc nh khoa hc quan tm

nghin cu.
Lun n: "Nghin cu s lan truyn, bin ng v nh hng ca c
cht ln h sinh thi nng nghip vng phn ng Thp Mi" c thc
hin t nm 1991 n nay bng phng php nghin cu l thuyt kt hp
vi th nghim ng rung trung tm nghin cu t chua phn Tn Thnh,
Long An v xung quanh knh Ha Bnh, Phc Xuyn tnh ng Thp, sau
c kim chng bng m hnh ton. Lun n trnh by nhng kt qu
nghin cu v nhng lan truyn, bin ng c cht c trong t, nc phn
v gii thch cng nh a ra nhng quy lut v mc nh hng ca chng
trong h sinh thi nng nghip vng phn, c bit l nhng nh hng chnh
ca cc c cht c trong t phn nh cc axit sulphuric, axit hu c cng
vi cc ion c Al3+, Fe2+, SO42- v cc cht c hu c i vi mt s loi
thc vt sng trong vng t phn. Cc tc ng ny c a ra di hnh
thc nh hng ring r. Trong iu kin thc t li l qu trnh nh hng
tng hp ca nhiu yu t khc nhau nn lun n tp trung trnh by nhng
nh hng ca c cht trong t phn trong iu kin t nhin (rng cy
sng trong iu kin t ngp phn) v trong iu kin nhn to (trng trt
trn t phn khai hoang).
Lun n tp trung phn tch nhng th nghim pht hin s cn
bng ha hc trong nc chua phn ng Thp Mi l Jurbanite, t
thit lp m hnh tnh ton s lan truyn ca nc chua phn. Lun n
a ra cc gii php p dng nhm gim bt tc hi ca c t phn n h
sinh thi nng nghip, ng thi kin ngh phng php tip cn h thng
qun l hu hiu t v nc chua phn ng bng sng Cu Long
c bit l ng Thp Mi.
SUMMARY
Study on movement, changes and effects of toxic substance on agroecological system of the acid sulfate soil in the plain of reeds
497
Acid sulfate soils have been reclaimed and used widely on a large
scale in the Mekong Delta. The problems related to toxicity due to acidity
have been theoretically and experimentally studied for a long time.
However, experiences gained from acid soil reclamation and development
have mainly concentrated on the local benefits from the area of acid sulfate
soil only. After many years of reclamation and changes from fallow areas
of acid sulfate soil to cultivation areas, many problems have arisen in
adjacent areas due to the movement of acid products in the canal system in
the Mekong Delta. This is a new field of study, which has drawn interest
from related scientists.
The thesis namely: Study on movement, changes and effects of toxic
substance on agro-ecological system of the acid sulfate soil in the Plain of
Reeds has been theoretically studied and experimentally carried out since
1991 at the experimental study area of Tan Thanh, Long An province and
surrounding areas of Hoa Binh and Phuoc Xuyen canals in Dong Thap
province. These findings were then have been verified by application of a
mathematical model. The thesis has investigated the transportation and
changes to toxic substances in soils and water as well as the theory and
magnitude of the effects of these substances on the agro-ecological system
of the acid sulfate soil area, particularly, the main effects of toxic substances
such as Al3+, Fe2+, Fe3+, SO42-, Mn2+, and toxic organic matters on the flora
of the acid sulfate soil areas. These impacts have been discussed based on
specific cases. In the field conditions, impacts are caused by many different
factors, hence, we have presented the effects of the toxic substances in two
categories: the natural conditions (forest living in inundation area of acid
water) and artificial/man-made condition (such as cultivation on reclaimed
areas).
The thesis has concentrated on analysis of experiments and utilized
the invented chemical balance of acid water in the Plain of Reeds called
Jurbanite. A mathematical model has also been established for simulating
the movement of acid water. The thesis has proposed practical methods
498
applied to reduce effects of acid toxic substances on the agro-ecological

system as well as methodology to effectively manage soil and acid water in
the Mekong Delta with particular to the Plain of Reeds.
(Ngun: Lun n TS ca T Vn Trng 2003)
19.2.2. Cch vit mt tm tt bo co ngn (Abstract)
Abstract thng c dng trong ph bin trong hi ngh khoa hc,
cng b kt qu cc ti nghin cu trong tp ch chuyn ngnh hay trn
mng internet giao lu thng tin, n gn nh hn nhiu so vi summary.
N cng c dng tm tt mt quyn sch hay mt lun n (tuy nhin
t dung trng hp ny).
y khng hn l mt bi vn m ch l mt on vn hay mt li
gii thiu v ni dung c bn ca bi bo, ngi c hiu c bi bo
co thuc ch no? kt qu nghin cu chnh ca bi bo t c ci g?
i tng phn nh ch yu ca Abstract l nhng bi bo co kt
qu trong Hi ngh khoa hc hay bi ng trong tp ch chuyn ngnh.
Dung lng khong 3 hoc 4 dng.
Cch hnh vn ht sc ngn, gn, d hiu.
Lun phi c tn ti y .
Tn tc gi v ghi ch (*) pha di, cng vi n v cng tc ca
tc gi v a ch email.
Ngn ng: Ting Vit v ting Anh (hay Php) trong mt s trng
hp xut bn trong nc c th bng ting Vit
V d:
ABSTRACT :
"LCA - Related activities in Thailand"*
There are no formal LCA studies in Thailand due to limited LCA
expertise and lackof LCA knowledge. The concept of LCA, in which
499
environmental aspects and potential impacts are evaluated throughout a

product s life cycle, is being gradually accepted, but the methodologies are
not yet clearly defined. Some LCA-rellated activities in Thailand, i.e. ISO
14000, Ecolabeling, developing Environmental Performence indicators, and
cleaner technology are reviewed
(Ngun*: Ponvipa Lohsomboon. PhD.,1998, bi ng trong hi ngh
LCA, Tsukuba, Nht m tc gi c tham d).
19.2.3. Cch vit KEYWORD
Keywords - nhng t kho, l nhng t ng vai tr ch th cc vn
chnh trong ni dung mt bi bo co hay mt sch khoa hc cng b,
m qua y, ngi ta hiu ci bi y nghin cu nhng vn g, ch
g. Nh c keywords m ngi nghin cu c th d dng truy cp thng tin
trn mng khi bn ch cn nh chng vo biu mu, clik vo my, ngay sau
trn mn hnh my vi tnh s hin ln nhng bi no c ni dung m t
kho va nu. Ngc li, nh t kho m bn s qung b rng ri nhng
kt qu ca bn cng b.
iu ny cng rt cn cho nhng ngi mi nghin cu hay lm lun
vn, tm kim thng tin ch m ta h quan tm. V d, h ang cn tm
ti liu v bi aming ta ch cn nh t ny vo mc tm kim trong trang
website Environment hay Ecotoxicology l s cho ta mt lot thng tin. Mt
s ngi cha bit Anh vn c th dung ting Vit truy cp qua cc
website ting Vit ca cc trng i hc, cc Vin nghin cu, ca B Ti
nguyn Mi trng, Khoa hc Cng ngh, thng thng nht ta vn vo
Google.
S lng t kho cho mt bi bo co khng nhiu hn 10, thng
thng khong 4, 5 t.
T kho c th l mt t n, hay mt t kp thm ch mt cm t (Idiom)
Cc t c sp xp theo trnh t: T quan trong nht c xp th
nht v gim dn theo th t.
500
Khng th c 2 t tng t nhau u l t kho ca mt bi.

Khi chn, phi ht sc cn thn. Nhm ln hay sai lch u gy hu
qu tai hi.
Sau y l 2 v d v t kho:
1- Cho trng hp lun n tin s ca T Vn Trng v ti Bin
ng, lan truyn c cht v nh hng ca n trong h sinh thi t phn
ng Thp Mi.
Keywords: Plain of Reeds; Severe acid sulphate soils; Reclamation;
Acid sulphate soil; Agroecosystem; Transportation, Dynamics and influence
of toxicities; Mathematical model;
2- Cho trng hp bi bo khoa hc ca Ponvipa Lohsomboon. PhD.,
1998, bi ng trong hi ngh LCA, Tsukuba, Nht v ti: LCA-Related
activities in Thailand
Keywords: Life Cycle Assessment, Life Cycle Review, ISO 14000,
Ecolebeling, Green lebel, EPI in Thailand
19.3. CCH VIT MT THNG BO KHOA HC
19.3.1. Cch vit thng bo khoa hc cc ngn
Thng tin khoa hc (bulleting) (ting Nga - vexnhic nauki) thng l
cc ngn, ch 1 n 2 cu khong 2 n 3 dng trn cc tp ch chuyn
ngnh. V vy, ngi ta dng n thng bo cho mi ngi bit l ai
lm c g, ra sao, u. T ai quan tm s li phi truy ngc tr li,
tm ra bi, vn , v c n. Cng t m nhng ngi nghin cu khng
i vo con ng m ngi khc lm xong hay tht bi. iu ny l
ht sc quan trng cho nhng ngi ang tm ti nghin cu.
Cc tp ch chuyn ngnh mi trng nh The World Lookout, The
Natural, The Ecotoxicology. nc ta c th c mt s tp ch chuyn
ngnh ca Hi Bo v mi trng v Ti nguyn hay ca Cc Mi trng,
trong c phn thng bo ny.
501
19.3.2. Cch vit bi thng bo khoa hc

Mt nghin cu qua kt qu bc u nhng cha phi l hon
chnh ta c th vit bi thng bo.
Bi Thng bo ny khng i hi phi cc dn bi nh mt bo co
khoa hc y m n ch cn vit di dng tin, ngha l c m c ni
dung, c kt lun nhng cha cn phi c bng biu hay th, hnh nh,
ti liu tham kho.
Nhng tnh trung thc lun phi l yu t hng u.
Vit ngn gn. Hnh vn ph hp vi dng thc khoa hc k thut
hay qun l hay x hi hc.
Dung lng khng qu 2 trang, thng ch 1 trang.
V d, mt ngi ang nghin cu vo giai on kt thc v ti:
Phng php dng bo lc bnh x l nc thi nhim hu c hay
nhim kim loi nng. Sau vi ln th nghim thy kh r nhng cha c
kh nng hay cha c iu kin cng b th vit di dng ny.
y cng l mt cch ng k bn quyn (trong nghin cu, cng kt
qu ai cng b trc s c bn quyn, ai cng b sau s mt bn quyn, du
anh c lm 10-15 nm i chng na).
19.4. DN VIT BI BO CO KHOA HC TRNH BY TI HI
NGH HAY NG BO (xem thm Chng 17)
Mc ch:
bi bo co khoa hc c trnh by c hiu qu cao ti hi ngh,
m vn bo m thi lng cho php thng 10 15 pht (hay trnh by
bo v lun n), ngi bo co phi c chun b mt dn trc khi vit.
Mc ch chnh ca bi bo co nhm:
Cng b tng khoa hc khi ngi nghin cu thy cn thit gi
bn quyn. Nhng phi thn trng v d l b mt.
502
Cng b kt qu tng chuyn trong nghin cu.

Cng bo kt qu ca cng trnh nghin cu.
Sau y l dn bi:
Tn ti, i km theo di l tn tc gi. Ngi ch tr vit trc,
ngi cng tc vit sau (Hi ng chc danh gio s li quy nh ngi ch
tr phi ghi tn v m ngoc (...).
Tip theo l abstract, keywords.
Phn m . Gii thiu tng quan, l do lm v tn ti, mc ch
phm vi, ni dung, phng php nghin cu...
Phn kt qu nghin cu: Chia theo ni dung ch khng chia theo
chng nh trong bo co y . Trong , cc bng biu, th c
trnh by sng sa, d hiu. i km l li nhn xt, nh gi.
Phn kt lun
Kin ngh
Ti liu tham kho.
Dung lng khong 3-5 trang A4, c ch thng 13, phong ch VNI
cod. Thc ra u c 2 iu kin va nu u do ban bin tp hay ban t chc
quy nh.
Ngn ng: Do ban t chc quy nh.
19.5. TRNH BY BO CO KHOA HC
Lm nghin cu tt nhng khng bit trnh by cho ngi nghe hiu
v cm ha h cng s l iu khng tt. Th th lm sao trnh by tt.
Mt bo co lm trong nhiu nm nhng khi trnh by Hi ngh
quc t cng ch 15 n 20 pht. Mt bo co bo v kho lun tt nghip
ch c trnh by trong 15 pht, mt lun vn thc s, lun n tin s cng
ch 30 pht, lun n tin s khoa hc cng ch 45 pht. Vy th, vn ht
sc quan trng l phi c cht lng, dung lng.
503
Mun vy, bn phi nm tht vng cng vic ca bn lm, vit tm

tt theo dn bi trnh by. Trnh by bo co (presentate report) va l mt
ngh thut va l mt ngh thut cm ha ngi nghe.
Xin nh rng, khng phi tt c ci g mnh lm c u a ra trnh
by. Ngc li, phi chn lc, ci no l trng tm, ci no l chnh, phi c
logic gia cc phn v khi chuyn ni dung nn c cu chuyn tip. Mt s
nghin cu sinh hay sinh vin cha c kinh nghim khi bo co h thng
c hay trnh by tt c cc chng trong bo co chnh. iu tn thi
gian, gy h sn nhiu hn, nguy him.
Ni dung trnh by c th ch cn 3 phn:
Phn m : ch vi cu dn dt, l do lm ti, gii thiu tn
ti. Phn ny c hay hc thuc l tt, ch khng a... c r rng, li
cun.
Phn phng php, ni dung, i tng ni gn, r, dng s
nghin cu cng tt
Phn kt qu nghin cu (khng cn chia tng chng m theo ni
dung nghin cu trnh by).
Phn ny nn s dng ti a bng biu, cng c nh my chiu
Crertheal, Slide film. Li din gii i km li nhn xt, nh gi. Khng nn
c m ch trnh by thi.
Li vn trong sng chun xc, ging ni phi r rng, khc chit,
khng nhanh qu, khng chm, nhiu ch trng tm cn nhn mnh. Phi
kt hp c ni vi cc ng tc tay, nh mt, ming
Phn kt lun th li phi c r rng, chc nch, khng nh "nh inh
ng ct". Ci g mnh khng lm th khng c php kt lun. Phi nu
dng dc. "Sau thi gian nghin cu, t kt qu trnh by trn, chng
ti xin kt lun, mt l..., hai l..., ba l..., bn l...
Thi bnh tnh, t ch nhng phi lch s, khim tn.
504
n mc lch s
Xin lu trnh by bo co trc hi ng hay trc hi ngh khoa
hc khng phi l ni chuyn, khng phi k chuyn, khng phi c
bi, khng phi din thuyt m ch l trnh by bo co vi c th ring
m ch n c m thi (it is no talking, no speaking, no telling, no reading,
presentation only).
Hin nay ngi bo co thng s dng cng c l chng trnh
powerpoint lm bi trnh by. Bi v, mun lm c bi Powerpoint th
bn phi tht s hiu bi. Khi bn lm c Powerpoint th bn li cng
hiu bi hn v cui cng l kt qu trnh by s tt hn.Chng trnh ny
lm tit kim cho ta rt nhiu thi gian m li rt sinh ng. Bi n c nhiu
hiu ng trnh by a dng v hp dn. Cc bn c th hc cch vit
Powerpoint qua bn mnh hay qua ti liu (sch bn sn hiu sch).
Xin nh rng, c ai ni, cng c quyt nh nng sut v cht
lng sn phm. iu rt ng cho trng hp ny.
19.6. CC LOI HI NGH KHOA HC
Mi n gi cn nhiu ngi cha phn bit c s khc v ging
nhau ca cc loi hi ngh khoa hc. Mt cuc hp chuyn no h cng
gi l hi tho. Trong khi c kh nhiu hnh thc hp khc nhau m h
khng phn bit. l thi quen ca nhiu ngi hin nay. Nhn dng cc
loi (hi ngh) hp l rt quan trng ngi lm khoa hc bit nn tham gia
cuc hp no cho ng, nht l khi gi bo co ca mnh n cuc hp .
Thng thng, cc hi ngh u c thng bo ln 1, ln 2, ghi r
tn, a im, thi gian, ni dung ch , loi hnh, ti tr, kinh ph, ban t
chc, a ch e-mail, fax, ng k, summary, thi hn np, hotel... Ngi
lm khoa hc mun tham gia phi c k theo tng ch (topic) m t
cc ti (thema) cho ph hp.
C th c nhng dng sau:
505
Seminar: theo nh ngha l nhm nh sinh vin ca mt trng i

hc (hay nhm thy gio v sinh vin) hi hp tho lun hay nghin cu
mt ti. Quy m khong 20-30 ngi. V d thy tr lp 00MT, Khoa Mi
trng, trng i hc Dn lp K thut Cng ngh seminar v "Qun l h
sinh thi lu vc sng ng Nai chng thoi ho v s dng bn vng".
Hi ngh chuyn (symposium). Quy t nhng nh khoa hc v
mt chuyn bn su nhng kt qu, nhng thng s... N c th c
quy m vng hay quc t nhng s lng ngi tham gia khng nhiu. V
d: "Symposium on Life Cycle Management - Theory and Practic" t chc
Tsukeyba, Tokyo, 15-20/12/2000. Cng c th sau c xut bn phn
kho lun. V d: Contribute to a symposium on environmental issues,
Wasington De, 21-22/10/2001.
Hi ngh bn trn (roundtable) l sinh hot thng xuyn ca mt
nhm nghin cu khoa hc c chung tng hay chung chuyn nghin
cu. Hi hp trao i tranh lun lm sng t vn hn. Quy m khong
10-15 ngi quanh bn trn. Qua y nhiu ngi c ni, c nghe v
hiu su hn. Dng tho lun (discussion) c s dng trong sch ny.
Hi tho, din n (forum) ni din ra bo co tranh lun theo ch
. Ngi ng n c th l mt speaker v nhng ngi khc t do ng
k. Bo co ch c th 30 pht nhng cc bo co hoc pht biu ch 510 pht.
Hp nh k cng tc (workshop): Nhng ngi trong mt d n
hay mt ti cng ngi li hp, bo co tin , kt qu ca tng nhnh d
n. Sau trao i gp cho nhau, v vch k hoch tip theo. Thng c 1
ch ta v th k, cng cc thnh vin nhm cng tc hay i din nhm.
Sau workshop thng c collection (tp hp) ti liu ph bin cho ton
nhm cng tc.
Hi ngh khoa hc (conference): Quy m ln, nhiu ngi, v c
th c c chnh khch bn v ng li chin lc hay chin thut khoa hc
hay mt ch ln (topic) c lin quan vn mnh khoa hc, kinh t x hi
506
quc gia vng hay quc t. Ch to t 3-5 ngi c 1-2 ch tch (chairman),
ban t chc, ban th k, ban xut bn. Bn v cc vn v m c tm c
quc t. v d: " Conference on Sustaiable development in the world",
Johanesburg, 2000.
i hi (congress): Quy m ln ca nhng nh khoa hc cng
ngnh hay chuyn ngnh bn tho ng li nghin cu v m hp bu ra
cc chc danh lnh o, cc ban. Bo co chuyn ni cm mang tnh
chin lc ngnh, lin ngnh.
19.7. CC DNG BO CO HI NGH KHOA HC
hi ngh chuyn , c th c rt nhiu kiu, loi, dng bi bo co
nhng thng c 2 dng ph bin sau:
Bo co thuyt trnh (oral papers): y l bo co ton vn hay
bo co y . Bo co phi c tnh mi tnh khoa hc. sau khi np
summary Ban t chc s chn nu summary no c chn bo co s
c ban t chc s thng bo cho ngi c chn. Tip , ngi c
chn phi gi bo co y cho ban th k h duyt, cho in dng
"Colection of Papers. Ngi c bo co phi trnh by trong 12-15 pht
vi khong 5000 t do ban t chc quy nh s ch ca bi bo co, quy
nh mu font ch, cch nh dng, hnh v, bng biu... Nu c chn
ng trong k yu li phi chnh sa cho ph hp. Tuyt nhin l bo co
phi khng c li chnh t.
Bo co treo tng (post report hay poster paper). Nu khng c
chn lm bo co oral th c th c chn treo tng. Loi ny c quy
nh v a im trng by (phng, nh trong khun vin hi ngh), thi gian
treo bao nhiu ting. Kch thc khung tng c treo cng c thng bo
r. V vy, ngi c Poster phi cn nhc vit bao nhiu trang, hnh nh,
th no, mu g,... ngi xem thy c v hiu mnh. Bi v dng ny
khng phi trnh by trn din n, m n gi quy nh thnh vin tham gia
(participals) n thm poster ca bn, bn s phi gii thch ci g ngi ta hi
hay trao i, gp . Ht gi thu li mang v, khng xut bn.
507
19.8. CCH TR LI CU HI
Khi trnh by d dng oral paper hay poster bn u phi tr li cu
hi m ngi nghe (hi ng gim kho, thnh vin hi tho) t ra.
Mun tr li tt yu cu bn phi:
Nm tht chc lnh vc ti mnh nghin cu;
Ht sc bnh tnh, sang sut nhn nh dng cu hi v sau ;
Tr li tht ngn gn, ng trng tm cu hi.
Ch ng, bnh tnh, t tin l iu cn thit khi trnh by v nht l khi
tr li cu hi. Khng tr li hoc ni ngoi cu hi. Khi c trnh cao th
ngi bo co c th m rng vn hoc to ra cu tr li d dm, li
cun ngi nghe. Nu nhng cu hi c lin quan ni dung bo co th nn
s dng bng biu (trong Powerpoint) tr li cho sinh ng.
Nn nh rng tr li tt, trong bo co bo v lun n, l mt yu cu
khng th thiu c (c im ring cho phn tr li).
Khi tr li, bn c th tranh lun vi ngi hi, c th l hi ng
gim kho, nhng khng nn c thi n thua, phi khim tn din t cho
ngi hi hiu vn . l iu kh nhng phi lm. Trnh tnh trng mt
bnh tnh, p ng tr li sai mc d bi vit rt tt.
508
BANG CAU HOI ONTAP

Chng 1
Muc ch, nh ngha, khai niem NCKH
1. V sao phai co NCKH?

2. Nhng nghien cu nh the nao th c goi la NCKH? Lay v du?
Chng 2
Cac phng phap tiep can trong NCKH
1. Co bao nhieu phng phap NCKH? Lay v du minh hoa cho moi
phng phap o.
2. Trong NCKH moi trng th phng phap nao thng c s dung
nhieu nhat? v sao?
Chng 3
Gii thieu khai quat cac bc NCKH
1. Trnh bay s lc cac bc NCKH?

2. Trong NCKH moi trng th bc nao la quan trong nhat? V sao?
Chng 4
Thu thap va oc tai lieu
1. V sao thu thap va oc tai lieu c xem la bc khong the thieu

trong NCKH?
2. Theo y ban oc tai lieu nh the nao th mi co hieu qua?
Chng 5
Hnh thanh e tai NC
1. Hay trnh bay cac bc hnh thanh mot e tai nghien cu? Cho v du?
2. Nhng van e can quan tam khi ban la chon e tai nghien cu la g?
Chng 6
Bien so ong nhat
1. Ban hieu g ve khai niem Bien so?

2. Co bao nhieu thang anh gia c s dung e anh gia bien so?
509
Chng 7
Cach xay dng gia thiet
1. The nao la gia thiet? Cho v du?

2. Co may loai gia thiet? Lay v du minh hoa cho moi loai.
Chng 8
Chon mot e tai e cng nghien cu
1. C s e la chon mot e tai e cng NC?

2. Hay viet mot e cng NC cho e tai ma ban la chon.
Chng 9
Chon phng phap thu thap thong tin (mau)
1. V sao trong NCKH thu thap thong tin (mau) la khau khong the thieu
c?
2. Co bao nhieu hnh thc, phng phap e thu thap thong tin?
Chng 10 Thu thap so lieu dung cac thang iem quan iem
1. The nao la thang anh gia thai o? Quy trnh xay dng?
2. Trnh bay s bo cac loai thang anh gia s bo?
Chng 11 Thiet lap o tin cay va gia tr cua mot cong cu nghien
cu
1. V sao ta phai kiem tra o tin cay cua cac cong cu NC?
2. Phng phap xac nh o tin cay cua cac cong cu NC?
Chng 12 Lay mau
1. Trnh bay cac phng phap lay mau thng s dung trong NCKH?
2. Y ngha cua viec lay mau?
Chng 13 Cach viet mot e xuat nghien cu
1. Cach thc trnh bay mot e xuat NC?
2. Da vao mau, hay viet mot e xuat cho e tai ma ban t chon.
510
Chng 14 X ly so lieu trong nghien cu quan tr moi trng va

nghien cu ieu tra
1. V sao x ly so lieu c xem la bc quan trong quyet nh thanh
cong cua e tai.
2. Trong nghien cu moi trng phng phap x ly nao thng c s
dung e x ly so lieu nhieu nhat? V sao?
Chng 15 Quy trnh x ly thong ke thong dung ket qua th nghiem
moi trng
1. The nao la NC nh lng, nh tnh? Cho v du?
2. Cac mc o xac nh mc o phan tan mau.
Chng 16 X ly tm he so tng quan nghien cu moi trng
1. Muc ch tm he so tng quan trong nghien cu moi trng la g?
2. Hay neu cac phng phap e xac nh he so tng quan?
Chng 17 Cach bieu dien d lieu ket qua nghien cu
1. Co bao nhieu phng phap trnh bay ket qua NC?
2. Trong nghien cu moi trng phng phap trnh bay ket qua NC nao
c s dung pho bien nhat? V sao?
Chng 18 Viet mot bao cao nghien cu (bao cao ay u)
1. V sao viet bao cao NC oi hoi phai co o chnh xac cao?
2. Viet mot e cng bao cao chi tiet cho e tai ma ban la chon.
Chng 19 Cach viet bao cao tom tat, t khoa va cach trnh bay
bao cao khoa hoc tai hoi ngh
1. V sao phai viet bao cao tom tat?
2. Cac dang trnh bay mot bao cao khoa hoc? Cho v du?
511
TI LIU TRCH DN
1. V CAO M, 1996, Phung php lun nghin cu khoa hc, NXB
Khoa hc v k thut.
2.
NGUYN NGC KING, 1996, Thng k hc trong nghin cu

khoa hc. NXB Gio dc.
3. NGUYN VN L, 2001, Phung php lun nghin cu khoa hc.

NXB Gio dc.
4.
RANJIT KUMAR, 1996, Research Methodology. Step by step Guider

for Beginners. Longman, Australia (Trch dn chnh).
5. WAYNE R. OTT, 1998, Environmental Statistics and Data Ananysis,

Lewis Publishers
512
TI LIU THAM KHO CHNH

1. Abramowitz, Milton, and Irene A. Stegun, eds., Handbook of
Mathematical Function with Formulas, Graphs, and Mathemtical
Tables, Applied Mathematics series No. 55 (Washington, DC: National
Bureau of Standards, 1972).
2. Basic Statistics for the Health Sciences (Palo Alto, CA; Mayfield
Publish Company, 1984)
3.
L Huy B, 2000, Sinh thi mi trng c bn, NXB i hc Quc gia

Thnh ph H Ch Minh.
4. L Huy B, 2000, Sinh thi mi trng ng dng, NXB Khoa hc v K

thut.
5. L Huy B, 2002, Qun tr mi trng c bn, NXB i hc Quc gia
Thnh ph H Ch Minh.
6. Beyer, William II., 2nd en., Handbook of tables for Probability and
Statistics (Boca Raton, Fl: CRC Press, Inc., 1968)
7. Hastings, Cecil, Jr., Approximations for Digital Computers (Princeton,
NJ: Princeton Univercity Press , 1955)
8. Johnson, Norman L. and Samuel Kotz, Continuous Univariate
Distributions-2 (New york: John Wiley and Sons, 1970).
9. Mage David T., and Wayne R. Ott, Authors Reply, J.Air Poll.
Control Assoc. 34(9):953(September 1984).
10. Ott W. An Urban Survey Technique for Measuring the Spatial
Variation of Carbon Monoxide Concentrations in Cities, Ph.D.
dissertation, Stanford University, Department of Civil Engineering,
Stanford, CA (1971).
11. Ott W. R. and R. Eliassen, A Survey Technique for Determining the
Representativeness of Urban Air Monitoring Stations with Respect to Carbon
Monoxide , J. Air Poll. Control Assoc., 23(8):685-690 (August 1973).
513
12. Ott, Wayne R., and David T. Mage, Measuring Air Quality Levels
Inexpensively at Multiple Location by Random Sampling, J.Air Poll.
Control Assoc. 34 (4):365-369 (April 1981).
13. Simson, R. W., Comment on Measuring Air Quality Levels
Inexpensively at Multiple Location by Random Sampling, J.Air Poll.
Control Assoc. 34 (94):952-953 (September 1984).
14. Student, New tables for Testing the Significance of Obversations,
Metron; 5:105-108, 114-120 (1925)
15. Student, On the Probable Error of the Mean,Biometrika, 6:1-25
(1908).
Cu hi:
1. Th no l mt bo co tm tt ?
2. Vit bo co tm tt lm g ?
3. C my loi tm tt bo co?
4. cch vit mt tm tt bo co (summary) ?
5. Cch vit mt tm tt bo co ngn (abstract) ?
6. Cch vit keyword nh th no ?
7. Cch vit thng bo khoa hc cc ngn nh th no ?
8. Cch vit bi thng bo khoa hc nh th no ?
9. C my loi hi ngh khoa hc ? Nu r tng loi hi ngh ?
10. Cch tr li cu hi trong mt bo co khoa hc nh th no ?
Ti liu tham kho:
NXB Gio Dc.
514

Ch Minh. H Ch Minh.
515

Phuong Phap Nghien Cuu Khoa Hoc Tap 1 p2 Le Huy Ba

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Phuong Phap Nghien Cuu Khoa Hoc Tap 1 p2 Le Huy Ba

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Phng phap nghien cu khoa hoc

THU THP S LIU DNG

GS-TSKH Le Huy Ba (Chu bien)

s bn mun tm hiu thi ca cc sinh vin v mt ging vin no .

Phng phap nghien cu khoa hoc

3. Lm sao ta c th m bo rng mt thang nh gi no c th

GS-TSKH Le Huy Ba (Chu bien)

lm c nhiu th hay mt s nhn vin thch, mt s khng, nhng

Hnh 10.1 V d v thang ng gi theo loi

Phng phap nghien cu khoa hoc

2. Hng hi cng vic

3. Khng quan tm nhn vin

6. Bit cch qun l

7. C th gii thch nhng tng

9. c mt s nhn vin thch,

10. c nhiu thnh tch

Hnh 10.2. V d thang nh gi bng s c 7 im.

Vic ghi nh rng thang nh gi Likert khng c lng bn cht thi

GS-TSKH Le Huy Ba (Chu bien)

t hay theo loi. N ty thuc vo vic bn on xem dn s ang nghin

10.3.3. Quy trnh thc hin mt thang nh gi Likert

Phng phap nghien cu khoa hoc

Khng nhit tnh cng tc (-)

Quan tm nhn vin (+)

Giao tip km (-)

Bit cch truyn t tng cng vic (+)

C th gii thch vn kh bng t n gin (+)

c mt s nhn vin thch, mt s khng (+/-)

SA: Rt ng , A; ng , U: Khng chc, D: Khng ng , SD: Rt

Trong v d trn, cu s 1 l mt nhn nh tch cc, do vy, nu mt

To lp hoc cu trc cc nhn nh phn nh thi v vn

GS-TSKH Le Huy Ba (Chu bien)

thi tch cc v tiu cc vi vn , l, chng ng h, cng

Dng cc nhn nh ny vi mt t ngi

Phn tch cc phn hi bng cch n nh trng s mt gi tr s

Tnh ton im thi ca tng phn hi bng cch thm vo

So snh cc im ca tt c cc phn hi cho mi mc nhn ra

Loi b nhng mc khng th tch bch.

Cu trc mt bn phng vn, bn danh sch tr li bng tp hp

Phng phap nghien cu khoa hoc

Nhn nh s 2 l mt nhn nh tiu cc. Trong trng hp mt

Khng nhit tnh cng vic (-)

Quan tm nhn vin vin (+)

Giao tip km (-)

Bit cch truyn t tng (+)

C th gii thch vn kh bng t n gin

c mt s nhn vin thch, mt s khng (+/)

SA: Rt ng , A: ng , U: Khng chc, D: Khng ng , SD: Rt

GS-TSKH Le Huy Ba (Chu bien)

Tnh ton trn im thi

Phn tch cho rng, ni chung, phn hi @ c thi tch cc hn

To lp hoc cu trc cc nhn nh phn nh thi v vn

Chn hi ng am hiu lnh vc m ta cn kho st thi .

Gi nhng nhn nh cho hi ng ny, yu cu nh gi quan

Da trn nh gi ca hi ng, tnh ton gi tr median ca nh

Phng phap nghien cu khoa hoc

Nu nh gi ca hi ng ri u trn thang nh gi, iu ny

T nhng nhn nh cn li, chn nhng mc phn nh tt nht

Xy dng mt bn cu hi / bn danh sch phng vn bao gm

u im chnh ca thang nh gi ny l, quan trng ca tng

GS-TSKH Le Huy Ba (Chu bien)

dch c s im ca ngi tr li. Bng 10.1 cho thy quan h ca cc

Thang anh gia Likert

Thang anh gia theo s th t