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BringingSignificancetotheclassroom

Notesforteachers

ForecastingHumanSportingAchievement
InspiredbyAthleticsattheBeijingOlympics:howmuchfastercananyonerun?anarticlein
Significance,Volume5,Issue4,pages153158,December2008

Introduction

Atthe2008BeijingOlympicGames,43worldrecordswerebrokenacrossarangeofsporting
disciplines25ofthemintheswimmingpoolalone.USAsMichaelPhelpsentered8
swimmingeventsandwon8goldmedals,7inworldrecordtimes.Ontherunningtrack,Usain
BoltofJamaicaranfasterthananyoneelseeverinthe100mandthenrepeatedthefeatinthe
200m.Bothmenwerehailedasheroesandtheirachievementsaspinnaclesofsporting
endeavour.Bytheendof2009however,Bolthadslashedoveronetenthofasecondoffofhis
own100mworldrecord,running9.58sattheAthleticsWorldChampionshipsinBerlinandonly
twoofPhelps7Beijingrecordsremainedintacthehimselfsurpassing3aswellasaddingthe
100mbutterflyworldrecordtohislistofaccolades.
Inlightoftheseachievementsitseemsreasonabletoaskthequestions:

Howmuchbettercanathletesget?
Howmuchfastercanahumanbeingrunorswim?
Howmuchfurthercananyonejumporthrow?
Isthereanupperlimittowhatcanbeachieved?
Isitpossibletoforecastfuturesportingachievementfrompastresults?Isitreasonable
todoso?
Whatfactorsotherthanathleticprowesshaveinfluencedperformance?Whatfactors
maychangeinthefuture?

Teachingresources

Theteachingresourcespresentedbelowareaimedatencouragingstudentstoplan,collect,
processandrepresentdataofsportingachievementsinordertousesimplestatisticalmodeling
techniquestomakepredictionsaboutfutureoutcomes.Thereliabilityofthesepredictionsand
thevalidityofthemodelsusedarethenconsideredthroughdiscussionexercises.Thereis
muchscopeforthissinglelessonactivitybeingadaptedasanextendedstatisticsprojectand
ideasfordoingsoareincludedintheresources.

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