Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 5,197 Canadians by Smart IVR on September 30October 1st, 2015.

A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Results were weighed
by language, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

CONSERVATIVES LEAD NATIONALLY

October 6, 2015 (Toronto, ON) A new national Mainstreet/Postmedia poll conducted before
Friday nights TVA debate, finds the Conservatives holding onto a lead with the NDP slipping. The
Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of 1.36%, 19 times out of 20.
The National stalemate that dominated the vast majority of this election campaign appears to be
at an end, said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. As the campaign enters the final
two weeks, the Conservatives (37%) have opened up a substantial lead over the Liberals (29%).
The Liberals have now also opened up a substantial lead over the NDP who have dropped to just
24% among decided and leaning voters.
In recent weeks we have looked at some regions and Provinces and those results seemed to
point to a significant decrease in support for the NDP and a rise for both the Conservatives and
Liberals. When we look across the National picture, we find these regional gains have favoured the
Conservatives.
In British Columbia, where early campaign polls showed a significant NDP lead, we found them
trailing the Conservatives and a surging Liberal vote, these numbers reflect a slight comeback
from those numbers but continued Conservative and Liberal strength. British Columbia will be
home to the most close three way races we can expect to see on October 19th.
In Ontario, we found that provincial NDP supporters were the least brand loyal to their federal
cousins and had dropped well back of the Conservatives and Liberals. These results continue to
show weakness for the NDP and Tom Mulcair in Ontario where a full third of the seats are found.
Regional races here will be the key, and many close races could be decided with ground game
efforts in these closing two weeks.
Quebec is now arguably a four way race between a sagging NDP and the surging Liberals,
Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois. The vote in Quebec is the most volatile of any across Canada
and it will be hard to get a clear picture of ballot results until just days before the election. The
only thing that is clear, is that the NDP stranglehold on support they enjoyed for most of this
campaign has been reduced significantly.
Atlantic Canada continues to show strong support for the Liberal party with the NDP and
Conservatives in a close 2nd and 3rd position. It is hard to imagine anything less than a dominant
election day performance by the Liberals across the Atlantic provinces with the NDP and
Conservatives holding on to just a few seats.

A3
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

Alberta will be the most interesting province to follow on election night as the province wide
picture masks some interesting regional races in both Calgary and Edmonton. The NDP surge that
began with a victory for Rachel Notley's NDP here may have come to an end, but there are still
pockets of strength in Edmonton. Expect both the Liberals and the NDP to make gains in Alberta
but we still expect the vast majority of seats here to remain Conservative.
In Saskatchewan we find a continued lead by the Conservatives and the NDP continue in second
place, with some signs of life for the surging Liberals. We would expect to see competitive races
mostly in the Saskatoon and Regina ridings, with the Conservatives largely dominating rural
Saskatchewan.
Manitoba is another Province where we expect the Liberals to make significant gains, they
continue to close on the leading Conservatives and break away from a sagging NDP. Expect some
big upsets here on October 19th based on what we are seeing today, a few weeks out from
election day, he finished.
-30About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently,
Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A4

37%

24%

29%

4%

7%

CONSERVATIVE
37% +6%
NDP
24% -6%
LIBERAL
29% BLOC QUBECOIS 4% -%
GREEN PARTY
7% +1%

CPC

NPD

LPC

BQ

GPC

CPC NDP LPC GPC BQ UD

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BLOC QUBECOIS
GREEN PARTY

BC
29%
33%
28%
x
10%

AB
67%
12%
17%
x
4%

SK
49%
29%
17%
x
5%

MB
45%
17%
35%
x
3%

ON
42%
18%
32%
x
8%

QC Atlantic
21%
22%
32%
29%
27%
44%
16%
x
5%
6%

A5

The Question Was:

If the Federal Election were today,
which party would you support?

CONSERVATIVE (CPC)
NDP
LIBERAL (LPC)
BLOC QUBECOIS (BQ)
GREEN PARTY (GPC)
UNDECIDED (UD)

Party and Leader Name were given

ie. The Conservative Party led by
Stephen Harper

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BLOC QUBECOIS
GREEN PARTY
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BLOC QUBECOIS
GREEN PARTY
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BLOC QUBECOIS
GREEN PARTY
UNDECIDED

18-34
29%
24%
23%
4%
9%
12%
436
BC
25%
28%
24%
x
9%
13%
794

35-49
33%
20%
22%
3%
5%
17%
976

AB
61%
11%
16%
x
4%
9%
459

50-64
31%
18%
27%
3%
5%
15%
1754

SK
37%
23%
15%
x
3%
21%
583

Certain
35%
19%
24%
3%
5%
13%

MB
38%
12%
30%
x
2%
18%
626
Likely
23%
24%
23%
3%
10%
18%

32%
20%
24%
3%
6%
15%

+6%
-4%
+1%
-3%

65+ Male Female

39% 35%
30%
16% 18%
22%
26% 26%
23%
2%
3%
3%
3%
6%
5%
14% 12%
17%
2031 2373 2824
ON
36%
15%
26%
x
7%
16%
1290

QC Atlantic
18%
19%
21%
27%
23% 35%
x
13%
5%
4%
20%
13%
411
1034

Might
17%
14%
38%
0%
2%
29%

Unlikely
6%
26%
12%
7%
10%
40%

32%

20%

24%

3%

6%

15%

A6

CPC

NDP

LPC

BQ

GPC

UD

CPC NDP LPC GPC BQ UD

A7

British Columbia

Alberta

Saskatchewan

Regional Margins of Error:

British Columbia +/- 3.48%
Alberta +/- 4.57%
Saskatchewan: +/- 4.06%
Manitoba: +/- 3.92%

Manitoba

A8

Ontario

Qubec
Regional Margins of Error:
Ontario +/- 2.73%
Quebec +/- 3.05%
Atlantic +/- 4.83%

Atlantic

A9

23%

29%

4%

7%

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BLOC QUBECOIS
GREEN PARTY

38%

CONSERVATIVE
38% +6%
NDP
23% -6%
LIBERAL
29% BLOC QUBECOIS 4% GREEN PARTY
7% -

CPC

NDP

LPC

BQ

GPC

BC
29%
32%
28%
x
11%

AB
67%
12%
17%
x
4%

SK
47%
29%
19%
x
5%

MB
46%
15%
36%
x
3%

ON
43%
18%
31%
x
8%

QC Atlantic
22%
22%
32%
27%
27%
44%
15%
x
5%
6%

A10

WHICH PARTY ARE YOU LEANING TOWARDS? (UNDECIDED ONLY)

13%

15%

51%

15%

5%

2%

CPC NDP LPC GPC BQ UD

18-34
4%
19%
17%
3%
8%
57%

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BLOC QUBECOIS
GREEN PARTY
UNDECIDED

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
BLOC QUBECOIS
GREEN PARTY
UNDECIDED

BC
13%
22%
11%
x
3%
51%

AB
7%
6%
3%
x
3%
81%

35-49
23%
18%
9%
3%
3%
42%
SK
27%
14%
3%
x
3%
53%

50-64
12%
10%
18%
1%
5%
51%
MB
7%
15%
3%
x
5%
69%

65+
11%
10%
17%
2%
5%
57%
ON
18%
12%
22%
x
7%
41%

Male Female
13%
13%
16%
14%
14%
16%
1%
3%
4%
5%
51%
51%
QC Atlantic
5%
7%
16%
17%
13%
13%
10%
x
4%
6%
52%
63%

A11

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you wil
change you mind before the next election?

CONSERVATIVE
STRONG
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

82%
15%
3%

NDP
STRONG
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

69%
25%
6%

LIBERAL
STRONG
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

63%
29%
8%

A12

10%

34%

24%

4%

9%

20%

And who would be your second choice?

CPC

NDP

LPC

BQ

GPC

UD

CPC NDP LPC GPC BQ UD

A13

Do you think the number of immigrants coming to Canada has increased or decreased in the
last few years?

22%

44%

13%

21%
Increased

Stayed The Same

18-34
47%
22%
13%
17%
436

INCREASED
STAYED THE SAME
DECREASED
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
INCREASED
STAYED THE SAME
DECREASED
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

BC
37%
22%
18%
23%
794

AB
57%
20%
6%
17%
459

Decreased
35-49
46%
19%
13%
22%
976
SK
59%
18%
5%
18%
583

Not Sure

50-64
39%
22%
15%
23%
1754
MB
58%
21%
5%
16%
626

65+ Male Female

41% 42% 46%
21% 25%
18%
12% 13%
14%
26% 20%
23%
2031 2373 2824
ON
41%
23%
14%
22%
1290

QC Atlantic
40%
53%
24%
18%
17%
15%
19%
14%
1034
411

A14

Thinking about Canadas immigration system, do you approve or disapprove of making

family reunification a priority?

19%

55%
25%

APPROVE: 55%

DISAPPROVE: 25%
18-34
29%
17%
19%
17%
18%
436

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

BC
36%
25%
12%
9%
18%
794

AB
23%
25%
18%
17%
18%
459

NOT SURE: 19%

35-49
32%
29%
9%
11%
18%
976
SK
24%
24%
18%
16%
18%
583

50-64
31%
29%
12%
11%
18%
1754
MB
22%
25%
19%
17%
17%
626

65+ Male Female

31% 31%
30%
26% 23%
27%
13% 14%
12%
9%
13%
12%
21% 18%
19%
2031 2373 2824
ON
26%
27%
15%
12%
19%
1290

QC Atlantic
30%
25%
29%
25%
13%
11%
11%
28%
16%
11%
1034
411

A15

And in your opinion, should immigration be kept at its current level, increased or decreased?

9%

33%

30%

28%
Increased

Decreased

18-34
34%
31%
28%
7%
436

INCREASED
DECREASED
KEEPING AT CURRENT LEVEL
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
INCREASED
STAYED THE SAME
DECREASED
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

Keeping It At Current Level

BC
39%
27%
24%
10%
794

AB
23%
38%
25%
15%
459

35-49
31%
28%
32%
9%
976
SK
18%
37%
21%
23%
583

50-64
33%
27%
31%
9%
1754
MB
32%
38%
18%
12%
626

Not Sure
65+ Male Female
34% 33%
33%
26% 29%
27%
29% 31%
29%
11%
8%
10%
2031 2373 2824
ON
32%
24%
35%
8%
1290

QC Atlantic
38%
34%
24%
38%
32%
22%
6%
6%
1034
411

A16

Recently there has been discussion about the Niqab, a veil worn by some Muslim women
which covers the face apart from the eyes. Some have argued Musim women should not be
able to wear the Niqab during citizenship ceremonies saying it is uncanadian. Others have
argued they should be able to and that the government should not tell women what to wear
or not. In your opinion, should the Niqab be allowed at citizenship ceremonies, or not?

13%
27%

61%
Yes

Not Sure
18-34
27%
57%
16%
436

YES
NO
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
YES
NO
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

No

BC
27%
63%
10%
794

AB
29%
58%
13%
459

35-49
26%
61%
12%
976
SK
23%
56%
21%
583

50-64
27%
63%
10%
1754
MB
23%
68%
9%
626

65+ Male Female

27% 27%
27%
62% 61%
60%
11%
12%
13%
2031 2373 2824
ON
28%
59%
13%
1290

QC Atlantic
12%
29%
70%
58%
18%
13%
1034
411

A17

If Conservative Leader Stephen Harper wins the most seats in the election but not a majority,
do you think he should be able to govern or should the opposition parties defeat his
government?

16%

42%

42%

Harper Government

Opposition Government

HARPER SHOULD FORM GOVERNMENT

OPPOSITION SHOULD DEFEAT GOVERNMENT
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

18-34
32%
51%
17%
436

HARPER SHOULD FORM GOVERNMENT

OPPOSITION SHOULD DEFEAT GOVERNMENT
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

BC
34%
47%
19%
794

35-49
49%
37%
14%
976
AB
75%
18%
7%
459

Not Sure
50-64
42%
43%
15%
1754

SK
37%
41%
21%
583

65+ Male Female

46% 43%
41%
35% 43%
42%
20% 14%
18%
2031 2373 2824

MB
ON QC ATL
38% 41% 38% 23%
44% 43% 50% 46%
18% 16% 12% 31%
626 1290 1034 411

A18

If a minority government is elected and defeated in the House of Commons, in your opinion
what should happen next? Should there be a new election or should the governor general give
a different party an opportunity to form government?

26%

26%

47%
New Election

Give New Party A Chance

18-34
22%
46%
32%
436

NEW ELECTION
GIVE NEW PARTY A CHANCE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
NEW ELECTION
GIVE NEW PARTY A CHANCE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

BC
25%
49%
25%
794

AB
39%
30%
32%
459

35-49
30%
45%
25%
976
SK
40%
29%
31%
583

Not Sure
50-64
29%
49%
22%
1754
MB
39%
28%
32%
626

65+ Male Female

24% 26%
27%
49% 49% 46%
27% 25%
27%
2031 2373 2824
ON
29%
44%
27%
1290

QC Atlantic
25%
24%
49%
56%
27%
21%
1034
411

A19

And would you approve or disapprove of a coalition government of the Liberals and NDP
led by Tom Mulcair?

14%

42%

44%

APPROVE: 42%

DISAPPROVE: 44%
18-34
25%
20%
18%
25%
12%
436

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

BC
24%
21%
15%
24%
16%
794

AB
9%
13%
20%
49%
8%
459

NOT SURE: 14%

35-49
23%
21%
14%
26%
15%
976
SK
9%
12%
21%
48%
9%
583

50-64
23%
18%
17%
26%
16%
1754
MB
8%
12%
23%
47%
9%
626

65+ Male Female

18% 23%
23%
16% 21%
17%
22% 18%
17%
28% 26%
26%
15%
11%
17%
2031 2373 2824
ON
21%
21%
20%
25%
13%
1290

QC Atlantic
26%
46%
24%
19%
20%
13%
18%
14%
12%
8%
1034
411

A20

And would you approve or disapprove of a coalition government of the NDP and Liberals
led by Justin Trudeau?

11%

45%

44%

APPROVE: 45%

DISAPPROVE: 44%
18-34
16%
32%
17%
27%
8%
436

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
SAMPLE

BC
24%
23%
16%
25%
13%
794

AB
13%
16%
18%
47%
7%
459

35-49
25%
18%
16%
28%
13%
976
SK
12%
16%
17%
49%
6%
583

NOT SURE: 11%

50-64
27%
20%
15%
27%
11%
1754
MB
13%
15%
17%
48%
8%
626

65+ Male Female

25% 23%
24%
15% 23%
21%
18% 17%
15%
30% 29%
27%
12%
9%
13%
2031 2373 2824
ON
24%
23%
16%
28%
9%
1290

QC Atlantic
25%
48%
27%
21%
18%
11%
22%
17%
7%
4%
1034
411

A21

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal Election?

Absolutely certain to vote
Likely to vote
Might vote
Unlikely to vote
And if the Federal Election were today, which party would you support?
Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Bloc Qubcois led by Gilles Duceppe
Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
And which party are you leaning towards voting for? [Undecided Only]
Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Bloc Qubcois led by Gilles Duceppe
Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will
change your mind before the next election? [Selected a Party Q2]
Strong supporter
Might change your mind
Dont know
And who would be your second choice? [Might Change/Dont Know Only]
Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Bloc Qubcois led by Gilles Duceppe
Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided

A22

Do you think the number of immigrants coming to Canada has increased or decreased in the
last few years?
Increased
Stayed The Same
Decreased
Not Sure
Thinking about Canadas immigration system, do you approve or disapprove of making family
reunification a priority?
Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Not sure
And in your opinion, should immigration be kept at its current level, increased or decreased?
Increased
Decreased
Keeping It At Its Current Level
Not Sure
Recently there has been discussion about the Niqab, a veil worn by some Muslim women
which covers the face apart from the eyes. Some have argued Musim women should not be
able to wear the Niqab during citizenship ceremonies saying it is uncanadian. Others have
argued they should be able to and that the government should not tell women what to wear or
not. In your opinion, should the Niqab be allowed at citizenship ceremonies, or not?
Yes
No
Not sure
If Conservative Leader Stephen Harper wins the most seats in the election but not a majority,
do you think he should be able to govern or should the opposition parties defeat his
government?
Stephen Harper should govern if he wins the most seats but not a majority
The Opposition Parties should defeat his Government if he does not win a majority
Not Sure

A23

If a minority government is elected and defeated in the House of Commons, in your opinion
what should happen next? Should there be a new election or should the governor general give
a different party an opportunity to form government?
A New Election
The Governor General should give a different party a chance to form Government
Not Sure
And would you approve or disapprove of a coalition government of the Liberals and NDP led
by Tom Mulcair?
Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Not sure
And would you approve or disapprove of a coalition government of the NDP and Liberals led
by Justin Trudeau?
Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Not sure

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all
three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator
on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority
Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario.
Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral
election.

CONNECT WITH US:

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