Statistics MSS11

Pre-requisite: This course is designed for students who wish to earn a 6th math credit and have
completed (passed) the first semester of Advanced Algebra (MRS21).
This course will satisfy the stated credit requirement, while providing students with an
opportunity to discover and apply the discipline of Statistics to solving real world problems
dealing with data.
Statistics (MSS11) is a course designed with the aim of enhancing students conceptual
understanding and reasoning in Statistics, thereby increasing their college readiness and
providing them with real analytical tools to relate to the demands of the world around them. It
is an established fact that colleges and universities, more and more, not only do they expect
students to have four (or more) years of high school math, for most majors they require students
to take a course in statistical reasoning. This 21st century skill is a reflection of the increasingly
data driven world that we live in. The purpose of this course is, therefore, to provide students
with a class that introduces them to statistical reasoning in a context that is rich with real world
examples likely to spark their interest. Activities and discussion will revolve around questions
and applications relevant to such fields as medicine, education, environmental science, business,
psychology, sports, politics, and entertainment.
Although successful completion of at least the first semester of the Advanced Algebra course
sequence (MRS21), as outlined above, is the formal prerequisite for this Statistics course, the
major prerequisites to study Statistics are the ability to think and a willingness to learn
allowing the course to be a fresh perspective into the application of mathematics in the real
world while adding a practical dimension to the traditional mathematics curriculum. As an
alternative, the course could also provide an opportunity prior to college for strong math
students who are interested in learning about statistics but prefer not to take AP Statistics.
Although there is no single textbook for this class, students will be given daily printed material
to guide classroom exploration, collaborative learning and discussion. The sequence for the
course will largely follow, but not be limited to, the topics in Workshop Statistics: Discovery
with Data, 4th edition, by Allan Rossman and Beth Chance. The focus will be on exploratory
data analysis, emphasizing conceptual understanding over computation, specifically stressing
statistical thinking behind data gathering and interpretation, while recognizing that some
computation is necessary. Students will be exposed to using technology to process data and aid
their statistical analytical exploration with graphs. Besides the TI-83/84 graphing calculator,
statistical software, such as Fathom and Microsoft Excel will be used. Other reference texts, such

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as Stats Modeling Your World, 1st and 2nd editions, by Bock, Velleman and De Veaux; Stats in
your World, 1st edition, by Dave Bock and Thomas Mariano; Statistics Through Applications, 2nd
edition, by Daren S. Starnes, Daniel S. Yates and David S. Moore; Statistical Reasoning in Sports,
1st edition, by Josh Tabor and Chris Franklin; and the video-based course Against All Odds
Inside Statistics available online at http://www.learner.org/courses/againstallodds/ will also be used
as sources of relevant content and activities.
The following list is a tentative plan of units, topics and order of lessons for single period (44minutes) classes, which meet five times every week during the academic semester defined by
the school calendar. Lessons will be structured around the set of Activities planned for each
topic. Each lesson will cover one to two Activities on a given topic. Homework will consist of
exercises (largely from the main textbook, Workshop Statistics, and from the other reference
texts) and correlated to the Lessons Activities. Projects will also be assigned as investigative
tasks to apply the concepts learned and provide students with opportunity of analyzing real
data.
What is Statistics?
Video The Joy of Stats by Hans Rosling (http://www.gapminder.org/videos/the-joy-of-stats/):
students actively watch the video, discuss certain passages in class to enhance motivation and
understanding, and prepare a report highlighting at least 5 statistical ideas observed in the
video.
Collecting Data and Drawing Conclusions
Where Do Data Come From? Understanding data: individuals and variables (definitions
of variables and observational units and the distinction between categorical and
quantitative variables)
Activities: Cell Phone Calls; Student Data; Variables of State; Studies from Blink; A
Nurse Accused
Data and Distributions: the concepts of distribution and comparison, visual displays
such as bar graphs and dotplots, the notion of statistical tendency and variation, and the
need to describe distributions in context.
Activities: Penny Thoughts; Hand Washing; Student Travels; Buckle Up!; February
Temperatures; Sporting Examples
Drawing Conclusions from Studies: the distinction between populations and samples,
parameters and statistics, and explanatory and response variables in observational studies.
Activities: Elvis Presley and Alf Landon; Self-Injuries; Home Court Disadvantage;
Candy and Longevity; Childhood Obesity and Sleep

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 Random Sampling: how to select a simple random sample.

Activities: Sampling Words from the Gettysburg Address - (using table of
random digits and calculator); Back to Sleep
Designing Experiments: differences between observational studies and well-designed
randomized, controlled experiments; confounding variables; placebo; blinding
Activities: Testing Strength Shoes; Botox for Back Pain; Memorizing Letters;
Nicotine Lozenge
Summarizing Data
Categorical Variables and Two-Way Tables: methods for summarizing and visualizing
categorical data; marginal and conditional distributions; independence; segmented bar
graphs; Simpsons Paradox.
Activities: Feeling Rushed; AZT and HIV; Lifetime Achievements; Graduate
Admissions Discrimination; Back to Sleep
Displaying and Describing Distributions (of Quantitative Variables): how to construct,
interpret and describe appropriate visual displays (stemplots and histograms) for
quantitative data; visualizing shape, center and spread.
Activities: Matching Game; Rowers Weights; Famous Poets Poems; Population
Growth; Diabetes Diagnoses; Go Take a Hike!
Measures of Center: how to calculate and interpret mean and median as measures of
center of a distribution.
Activities: Debating Speeds; Matching Game; Rowers Weights; Buckle Up!;
Questionable Conclusions; Readability of Cancer Pamphlets
Measures of Spread: how to measure and interpret the variability of a distribution;
range, interquartile range, and standard deviation; using the empirical rule and z-scores.
Activities: Developing Life Expectancies; Value of Statistics; Placement Exam
Scores; SATs and ACTs; Marriage Ages
More Summary Measures and Graphs: the five-number summary and boxplots; finding
outliers; the effect of transforming scales for comparing distributions
Activities: Natural Selection; Roller Coasters; Ice Cream Calories; Fan Cost Index;
Digital Cameras
Categorical Variables and Two-Way Tables: methods for summarizing and visualizing
categorical data; marginal and conditional distributions; independence; segmented bar

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graphs; Simpsons Paradox.

Activities: Feeling Rushed; AZT and HIV; Lifetime Achievements; Graduate
Admissions Discrimination; Back to Sleep
Randomness in Data
Probability: exploring the meaning of randomness and the concept of probability as a
long-run property of repeatable events; using simulations to model uncertainty processes;
the concept of probability distributions and expected value; understanding sample space.
Activities: Random Babies; Family Births; Jury Selection; Treatment Groups
Normal Distributions: using Normal curves as mathematical models of unimodal,
symmetric distributions; table and technology to find standard normal probabilities;
percentiles and normal distribution calculations.
Activities: Body Temperatures and Jury Selection; Birth Weights; Blood Pressure
and Pulse Rate Measurements; Criminal Footprints
Relationships in Data (bivariate quantitative data)
Graphical Displays of Association: the concept of association between two quantitative
variables; scatterplots for assessing the direction, strength and form of the association.
Activities: House Prices; Birth and Death Rates; Car Data; Marriage Ages; Heights,
Handspans, and Foot Lengths; Televisions and Life Expectancy; Kentucky Derby
Times
Correlation Coefficient: finding the correlation coefficient as a numerical measure of the
linear association between two quantitative variables; properties of correlation.
Activities: Car Data; Governors Salaries; Televisions and Life Expectancy; Guess
the Correlation; House Prices; Exam Score Improvements; Draft Lottery
Least Squares Regression: The line of best fit; prediction, fitted values, interpretation of
slope and y-intercept, residuals, outliers, influential observations, and the coefficient of
determination R2.
Activities: Heights, Handspans, and Foot Lengths; House Prices; Animal Trotting
Speeds; Textbook Prices

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------Common Core Standards Alignment

Interpreting Categorical and Quantitative Data (S-ID)

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Summarize, represent, and interpret data on a single count or measurement variable

1. Represent data with plots on the real number line (dot plots, histograms, and box plots).
2. Use statistics appropriate to the shape of the data distribution to compare center (median, mean) and
spread (interquartile range, standard deviation) of two or more different data sets.
3. Interpret differences in shape, center, and spread in the context of the data sets, accounting for possible
effects of extreme data points (outliers).
4. Use the mean and standard deviation of a data set to fit it to a normal distribution and to estimate
population percentages. Recognize that there are data sets for which such a procedure is not appropriate.
Use calculators, spreadsheets, and tables to estimate areas under the normal curve.
Summarize, represent, and interpret data on two categorical and quantitative variables
5. Summarize categorical data for two categories in two-way frequency tables. Interpret relative
frequencies in the context of the data (including joint, marginal, and conditional relative frequencies).
Recognize possible associations and trends in the data.
6. Represent data on two quantitative variables on a scatter plot, and describe how the variables are
related.
a. Fit a function to the data; use functions fitted to data to solve problems in the context of the
data. Use given functions or choose a function suggested by the context. Emphasize linear,
quadratic, and exponential models.
b. Informally assess the fit of a function by plotting and analyzing residuals.
c. Fit a linear function for a scatter plot that suggests a linear association.

Interpret linear models

7. Interpret the slope (rate of change) and the intercept (constant term) of a linear model in the context of
the data.
8. Compute (using technology) and interpret the correlation coefficient of a linear fit.
9. Distinguish between correlation and causation.
-------------------------------------------------------------------Making Inferences and Justifying Conclusions (S-IC)
Understand and evaluate random processes underlying statistical experiments
1. Understand statistics as a process for making inferences about population parameters based on a
random sample from that population.

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2. Decide if a specified model is consistent with results from a given data-generating process, e.g., using
simulation. For example, a model says a spinning coin falls heads up with probability 0.5. Would a result
of 5 tails in a row cause you to question the model?
Make inferences and justify conclusions from sample surveys, experiments, and observational
studies
3. Recognize the purposes of and differences among sample surveys, experiments, and observational
studies; explain how randomization relates to each.
4. Use data from a sample survey to estimate a population mean or proportion; develop a margin of error
through the use of simulation models for random sampling.
5. Use data from a randomized experiment to compare two treatments; use simulations to decide if
differences between parameters are significant.
6. Evaluate reports based on data.
Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability (S-CP)
Understand independence and conditional probability and use them to interpret data
1. Describe events as subsets of a sample space (the set of outcomes) using characteristics (or categories)
of the outcomes, or as unions, intersections, or complements of other events (or, and, not).
2. Understand that two events A and B are independent if the probability of A and B occurring together is
the product of their probabilities, and use this characterization to determine if they are independent.
3. Understand the conditional probability of A given B as P(A and B)/P(B), and interpret independence of
A and B as saying that the conditional probability of A given B is the same as the probability of A, and the
conditional probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B.
4. Construct and interpret two-way frequency tables of data when two categories are associated with each
object being classified. Use the two-way table as a sample space to decide if events are independent and
to approximate conditional probabilities.
5. Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language
and everyday situations.
Use the rules of probability to compute probabilities of compound events in a uniform probability
model
6. Find the conditional probability of A given B as the fraction of Bs outcomes that also belong to A, and
interpret the answer in terms of the model.
7. Apply the Addition Rule, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B), and interpret the answer in terms of
the model.

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8. Apply the general Multiplication Rule in a uniform probability model, P(A and B) = P(A)P(B|A) =
P(B)P(A|B), and interpret the answer in terms of the model.
9. Use permutations and combinations to compute probabilities of compound events and solve problems.
Using Probability to Make Decisions (S-MD)
Calculate expected values and use them to solve problems
1. Define a random variable for a quantity of interest by assigning a numerical value to each event in a
sample space; graph the corresponding probability distribution using the same graphical displays as for
data distributions.
2. Calculate the expected value of a random variable; interpret it as the mean of the probability
distribution.
3. Develop a probability distribution for a random variable defined for a sample space in which
theoretical probabilities can be calculated; find the expected value.
4. Develop a probability distribution for a random variable defined for a sample space in which
probabilities are assigned empirically; find the expected value.
Use probability to evaluate outcomes of decisions
5. Weigh the possible outcomes of a decision by assigning probabilities to payoff values and finding
expected values.
a. Find the expected payoff for a game of chance.
b. Evaluate and compare strategies on the basis of expected values.
6. Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator).
7. Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing,
pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game).

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