Rachel Miller

Math 1040
Ms. Jaussi
Confidence Interval Estimates
A Confidence interval is a range of values used to estimate the
true value of a population. To find a confidence interval for a proportion
we need to first verify that requirements are met. These are:
That the sample is a simple random
sample
Requirements for a binomial distribution
are met:
There is a fixed number of trials
The trials are independent
There are two outcome categories
The probability remains the same for
each trial
There are a minimum of 5 successes and
failures
Next we have to fin the critical value or the number on the
borderline that separates sample statistic that are likely to occur from
those that are unlikely to occur. It is the number that is a z score with
the probability that separates the area of alpha divided by 2 in the
right tail of the standard deviation.
Third we find the margin of error, or the E, which is used to
estimate a population between the proportion and the true value. This
is found with this equation:

Fourth we use the E, or margin of error, and the sample

proportion to find the values of the confidence interval limits. Shown
as:

pp E = (pp -E , pp +E)
*We round our confidence interval limits to tree significant digits

We are going to use these steps to create a 95% confidence interval

estimate for the true proportion of purple candies.
A 99% confidence interval estimate of the true mean of the numbers of
candies per bag.
And lastly a 98% confidence interval estimate for the standard
deviation of the number of candies per bag.

PURPLE
To find a 95% confidence interval for purple Skittles, we need to
make sure that all of the requirements of a confidence interval are met.
These are
1. Yes, there is a simple random sample
2. Yes it
Has a fixed number of trials
One answer does not effect another
There is two categories, purple and not purple
The probability remains constant
3. Here we find the p hat probability which is there are 180 purple
out of 941 other colors
4. Now we can find the E.
To find the E we must first find the Z-critical value. To find
the Z- critical value we use the confidence level given to us. .95,
then we subtract that from one like so:
1.00
- .95
.05
Then divide that by 2 .05 2 = .025
Add that amount, .025 to the confidence level .95 and get .975. Now
go to our Z-Table to find this amount in the area and match that with
the corresponding Z value. This is the New Z-critical value : 1.96

Purple Continued
Now we find the other variables

pp = X/N= 180/941
q- hat = 1- p-hat = 761/941
n= number of trials=941
We now plug in these variables into the equation to find E

We get E= .02513 rounded to .025

Last, we calculate the margin of error, which looks like so

pp E = 180/941.025= (.166, .216)

This means that the number of purple Skittles in a 2.17 oz. bag
between 16.6 and 21.6 95% of the time.
Mean Number of Candies per Bag
Construct a 99% confidence interval estimate for the true mean
number of candies per bag.
1. We check all of the requirements and find that they are
met.
2. This time we find our t distribution. This is because we are
finding the mean and not the proportion this time. So, our
new equation is
E=
3. Now we find all of the variables and then plug them into
the equation.
To the t-critical value we use a different chart along with
degrees of freedom (df), n-1
Df= 15-1=14
We also use the confidence level, 99%. We subtract, 1-.99 to get
therere for the tails, which is .01, and because this is two tailed we
divide it in half, .005.
Now using that we go to our chart:

3.33 is the critical value

s= 9.669, I found this by plugging in all of the means and using a
calculator. For more information go to . ( Ask and Ill show you but I
have a different calculator then the one at school, but I would be happy
to show.) And n=15, remember that this number of trials.
We plug in the numbers and get that E= 8.314
4. To find the Confidence interval limits we take x-bar, the
mean, E. ( To find x-bar, use the calculator.) 62.733
8.314= (54.419, 71.047). This means that the mean number
of candies in a 2.17 oz. bag of Skittles will be between 54
candies and 71 candies 99% of the time.
Standard Deviation of the Number of Candies per Bag
Construct a 98% confidence interval for the standard deviation of
the number of candies per bag. For this we will use another test called
Chi-square.

1. Check the requirements, both are met.

2. Now, find
left and right. To do this we find the degrees of
freedom, 15-1=14, and with that refer to the chi- table to find the
critical values that correspond with the confidence interval.

L = 4.660

R = 29.144

3. Now plug the confidence intervals into the equation along with
the other variables. N= 15, s= .02
We get .014<
< .035
Meaning that we can be 98% confident that the standard deviation of
the number of candies per bag will be between .014 and .035.
With this information we can see the different things about a bag
of Skittles there will be about 16 purple Skittles in a bag from our first
confidence interval. The second confidence interval found that the
mean numbers of candies in a bag is between 54 and 71. The 71
seemed unusually high and I also noticed that one trial has a high
amount of candies, lucky for that person! And with the standard
deviation we can see that there is not a large gap between how many
candies can be less or more than the mean. Which seems about
normal to me.

Hypothesis Tests
A hypothesis test is a method that used data to decide if a claim
about a test is true. We use hypothesis test to really just see if
someone or something is true. It there really a mean of 2.17 oz. worth
of candies in a bag? Could the Skittles company be lying to us and we
are not paying for what we are told? Or in other scenarios like that we
can find similar problems by a smaller scale test. Like our own.
Green
Our first test is going to be, using a .01 significance level to test
the claim that 20% of all Skittles are green. For this test we will we
testing a claim about the proportion, this means that we will use the Z
for out test statistic. That formula will be

Now that that is established we can start out steps.

First we need to make sure the requirements are met.
Yes it is a simple random sample
The conditions for a binomial distribution is met: has a fixed
number of trials, 941, trials are independent of one another,
there are two outcomes, green or not green.
The conditions of nXp > 5, and nXq> 5, is met
Second we establish the claim, null hypothesis and alternate
hypothesis
Third we identify our variables.
Fourth we plug the variables into the equation to find our z- test
statistic.
Fifth, using this z-test statistic we compare to the p-value or the
critical value.
For this I am going to do p-value. I will use the Zchart to help me solve this.
Sixth I will reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis, and write
out a conclusion.

For this test it seems that for our data 20% of the candies in a
2.17 oz. Skittles bag is Green! This is interesting to me because my
data had a very low amount of green with 15% of the bag being green,
9 out of 59. I guess that means my bag of Skittles was one of the lower
ones! An odd ball!

Mean
This time we will use a .05 significance level to test the claim
that the mean number of candies in a bag of skittles is 56. This time
we will be using the t-test statistic, without the standard deviation
known.
1. Requirements are met: it is a simple random sample, the
population is normally distributed.
2. The claim, null hypothesis and alternate hypothesis, remember
this time we are finding the mean.
3. Find all of the variables needed for the t-test statistic equation.
(plug into calculator)
4. Put the variables into the equation and calculate the t test
statistic.
5. Compare the t-test with the p-value or critical value, I am using
the critical value for this one. Will need to use the t-chart.

6. Reject or Fail to Reject the null hypothesis and write a conclusion.

I found that with our class sample that 20% of the candies per 2.17 oz.
bag is green. I also found that the mean number of candies that is said
to be the mean number of candies in a bag is not true of our sample. I
am guessing that the one person whom had 97 candies in there bag
may have thrown us off a bit! Though we do not know this for sure,
unless we conduct another trial, making sure everyone purchases a
2.17oz. bag of Original Skittles.

Reflection
The conditions for doing interval estimates and hypothesis test
for population proportions is:

 That the sample is a simple random

sample
There is a fixed number of trials
The trials are independent
There are two outcome categories
The probability remains the same for
each trial
There are a minimum of 5 successes and
failures
I said that the conditions for this test and interval were met. They
are met in the way I explained them to be. Although ,I feel that in the
Purple and Green sections, saying that there are two outcomes, may
be stretching the truth, technically there is five out comes. I would say
either it is or it isnt, but in reality it could be four other colors at the
same time.
The conditions for doing interval estimates and hypothesis test
for population means is
The sample is simple random sample
The population is normal and/or n>30
For this I do feel more confortable saying that the requirements here
met. To be on the safe side though, we should have had more than 30
trials. I understand that class size did affect this factor, but also those
who did not participate in the first part of this project also hurt our
information.
The conditions for interval estimates for population standard
devotions are
It is a simple random sample.
The population must have a normally distributes values.
For this one I feel the same as with the population means
requirements for the interval estimates and hypothesis test. There
needed to be a larger sample yes. For these conditions though, even if
it is large it needs to be normally distributed. For the most part ours is,
yet we have one group of skittles that is very large! Which I think really
throws off the information. That could have been handled with more
stress on the size of the bag. I originally bought the wrong size before
reading the directions once more!
The errors I found in this data are, first, the sample sized. I think
a sample size larger than 15 would have been very helpful for this
particular style of data. Another error that caught my attention, was
the one person whom had 97 Skittles in there 2.17 oz. bag. I believe
that they had bought a larger size bag on accident. To improve the

sampling method, I would have had us have to get our bags of Skittles
and count them in class. Some students did not actually have a bag of
Skittles and just thought of random numbers, also skewing the
information.
Form this statistical research I can conclude that 20% of the
candies in a bag of skittles is green. There are between 16 and 21
purple candies in a bag of 2.17oz. Original Skittles. The mean number
of candies in a Skittles bag is still a mystery to me. Yet, I know that it is
between 54 and 71 candies.
I myself have learned never to trust what the package says
should be in a bag of candy. For it could be lying, and you will never
know unless you conduct a statistical research of data collected.