48081 Innovation Processes Spring 2015 Proposal template

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Assignment 2 Research Project Technology Futures

Student name: Adam Love

Student number: 11655166

(1) Project proposal topic / title:

Renewable Energy in Australia - Is solar a viable option?

(2) Proposed research question (what to you want to find out?):
How will the efficiency and cost of solar panels vary over the next 20 years and if these
changes will make them a feasible, obtainable source of renewable energy?
(3) Proposed method / approach (how do you plan to investigate the topic and arrive at an
answer? What type of technology forecasting method will you use?):
In attempt to answer the question regarding the future efficiency and cost of solar panels as a
viable source of renewable energy I will have to analyse the current state of development of
solar power in Australia as well as use a combination of forecasting methods to predict its
growth rate and potential changes.
In order to effectively do this, I will have to use a combination of the 3 basic methods of
technology forecasting Extrapolation, Expert Opinions and Modelling. To begin with I will
have to use extrapolation to use historical data and its trends to try and predict how the data
will extend into the future using a form of S-curve. From there, I will have to collaborate data
from a wide variety of expert opinions in attempt to artificially create a consensus of opinion
in regard to solar panel efficiency in the future. By doing this I will be able to use a method
similar to the Delphi method to pinpoint the general perspectives that the experts have and
quantify their beliefs with regard to what and when will happen in the field of solar energy.
Furthermore, I will use modelling and pre-conducted research studies to quantify and display
the relationships between the variables in question particularly the development of solar
panel efficiency with time, the variation of solar panel cost with time, the changing attitude

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towards solar power with time and the introduction of any government rebates or incentives
with respect to time.
I will also have to investigate the efficiency and practicality of other energy sources such as
wind and hydroelectric plants in comparison to using solar. This will involve comparing their
current stage of development, cost, achievability, practicality and ability to meet the demands
of our growing power consumption. In addition I will need to outline the reasons necessary
for renewable energy sources, their benefits over traditional fuel sources, why we need to be
concerned and what we can do about the issue.
After accurately presenting all the above information I hope to be able to provide a prediction
of the future state of renewable energy sources in Australia and be able to make comment on
the state of solar energy and if it is going to become a mainstream, dominant design for the
future of Australia. I plan to be able to objectively weight the pros and cons for the
technology, discuss its potential and derive a conclusion based on the results of my
forecasting as to the most appropriate source of renewable energy for Australias future.
(4) Initial ideas regarding online documentation format (what type of online format do
you hope to employ? How will you use the power of the online format? How will you
incorporate novelty or innovation in the presentation format?):
Part of the development of this research task will be the incorporation of online
documentation to record the entirety of my investigation. This online documentation will
serve as a source of reference and further information to my summary presentation on the
topic.
I intend for the online journal to be structured as a form of a blogging engine however with
the addition of some more interactive and engaging graphs, charts and posts. I intend for the
online documentation to be structured in three main sections.
The first section will be an initial summary/home page with an overview of the findings,
information and questions Im seeking to answer. This page will then link to the following
two main sections of the documentation research and my analysis.

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I intend the research section of this online site to be a blog in itself in which I will post
clipping, snippings, infographics and videos I believe relevant to my research or of interest to
the topic. I will cohesively citation the source and briefly discuss my findings or thoughts on
each one. By categorising these findings on a date timeline, viewers to the site will be able to
follow my progress and track the outcomes of my research. Furthermore, I intend the site to
have a global search box with tag tracking to find relevant snippings and information to
specific topics or statistics.
The final section of the site, the analysis section will be my own documentation outlining my
research and discussing the findings. This section will be structured like a hyperlinked
document with a side menu for linked navigation. This will enable viewers to have a more
modern flow rather than a traditional, structured report. They can view the contents of the
research in their own order and easily jump to the sections that interest them most. This will
also enable much more emphasis to be placed on charts and graphs and enable the
opportunity for interactive content when compared to traditional media. Furthermore, a
comment / contact section will enable feedback on my work.
(5) Background literature review (2-3 pages outlining the background of this topic fully
referenced with minimum of 8 in-text citations).
The issue of Australias future energy security is of growing concern and we stand on the
verge of a period of dramatic change. In order to understand the need to investigate
renewable energy and sustainable solutions we must first understand the facts and statistics.
Australia is the ninth largest energy producer in the world [Penney et al. 2012]. In 2013, our
energy consumption exceeded 5884 petajoules [Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics
2014] which was marginally less than previous years.
In terms of our energy consumption break down, in 2013 oil was our primary source at 38%,
followed by coal at 33% and natural gas at 24%. Renewable energy sources supplied a mere
6% or Australias energy. [Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics 2014]
Data is now showing Australias energy consumption plateauing in comparison to economic
activity primarily due to a greater emphasis on improvements in the energy efficiency of

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devices, households and entire industries. Unfortunately, this is not enough. Simply reducing
the rate of growth of our energy consumption is not going to fix the dangerous risks that are
threatening our nation.
One of the primary issues with the burning of fossil fuels is due to the production and release
of harmful carbon dioxide gas into the atmosphere. The article Australias Renewable
Energy Future from the Australian Academy of Science states an average Australian house
will, in a persons lifetime produce enough CO2 to entirely replace the atmosphere above it
with this greenhouse gas. [Dopita & Williamson 2010]. The effects of these greenhouse
gasses are abundant and commonly known from altering the atmosphere, resulting in more
heat on the earths surface, hence causing climate change, a rise in sea levels, weather
alterations, agriculture dangers amongst numerous other consequences.
The upper safety limit of greenhouse gas levels is considered to be 350 parts per million
although levels have been higher than this since 1988. An article from the international
journal Science in 2009 depicted greenhouse gases [need to stabilise at] atmospheric
concentrations somewhere between 450 and 500 parts per million to avoid serious, if not
catastrophic, effects on life and property. [Dopita & Williamson 2010]
The Mauna Loa Obsevatory in Hawaii measured the current atmospheric level of CO2 to be
401.52 parts per million as of March this year [Co2now 2014]. The concentration of CO2 in
the atmosphere is increasing exponentially at an alarming speed and could be catastrophic if
continued at the current rate. Consequently, it is imperative that Australia put serious thought
and planning into the future of its energy before its too late.
Fortunately, with the correct implementation, crisis can be averted. Research contained in the
2004 report A Clean Energy Future for Australia states the potential for Australias levels of
greenhouse pollution to potentially halve by 2040 through utilising clean energy sources and
energy efficient designs. [Dopita & Williamson 2010]

There are numerous sources of clean energy currently in use or in development, some of
which are outlined briefly below:
- Wind Turbines [Australian Energy Market Operator Limited 2013]

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o Harnesses the kinetic energy from the movement of air to spin large turbines
and generate electricity
o Already in use
o Variable Sizing
o Great potential for offshore advancements
- Hydropower
o Utilises the natural movement of water to generate electricity
- Geothermal [Edenhofer et al. 2012]
o Taps into the thermal energy contained within the Earths core
o Can be used to generate electricity or as a means of thermal energy
o Mature technology
- Wave and Tidal Energy
o A large source of energy from variable aspects of potential, kinetic, thermal or
chemical energy stored in seawater. This energy can be transformed to
generate electricity or thermal energy.
o Wide variety of a range of applications and technologies
Many require feature research and development
o Varied level of control and prediction based on application
o Suitable for costal regions
- Solar Thermal [Clean Energy Council, 2013]
o Uses the suns energy to heat water
o Transfer the energy directly to the water rather than using it to generate
electricity
Displaces energy required for water heating systems
- Solar Photovoltaic [Brett et all. 2012]
o Photovoltaic cells are solar panels used to convert sunlight into electricity
o Often used to supplement electricity supplied by the power grid
This is a brief overview of a few of the more common sources of renewable energy. These
methods have the potential to greatly improve our quality of life as through the development
and investment in one of these technologies or a combination of several of them, Australia
will be able to drastically reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. Some of these technologies
also have the potential to enable consumers to sell their own generated power back into the
grid or store it for later.

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In proceeding with this research I hope to be able to dive deeper into some of these sources of
renewable energy and see how they compare. In particular I will research the field of Solar
Power and use technology forecasting methods to discuss the predicted advances in this
industry. From there, I will be able to examine if the technology will become a feasible,
viable and affordable option for Australias future energy needs.

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(6) Annotated reference list

(Reference list with a short description/summary of the reference highlighting the main
information of interest for this project (50-100 words per reference)).

Australian Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics, 2014 Australian Energy

Update, July 2014, Australian Government, Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics.
Australian Energy Market Operator Limited, 2013, Wind Turbine Plant Capabilities
Report, 2013 Wind Integration Studies, 2013 AEMO.
Brett T. Gage, B. Borry, R. 2012, Technological Niches: Concentrated Solar Thermal
vs Photovoltaic Solar, Principle Solar Institute 2012.
Clean Energy Council, 2013, Concentrated Solar Thermal Energy Fact Sheet.
Dopita, M. Williamson, R, 2010, Australias Renewable Energy Future, Australian
Academy of Science 2009.
Edenhofer, O. Madruga, R. Sokona, Y. Kristin Seyboth, K. Eickemeie, P. Matschoss,
P. Kadner, S. Hansen, G. Schlmer, S. 2012, Renewable Energy Sources and Climate
Change Mitigation, Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town,
Singapore, So Paulo, Delhi, Tokyo, Mexico City.
Geoscience Australia and BREE. 2014, Australian Energy Resource Assessment.
2nd Ed. Geoscience Australia, Canberra.
Moomaw, W, F. Yamba, M. Kamimoto, L. Maurice, J. Nyboer, K. Urama, T. Weir,
2011, IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Penney, K. Schultz, A. Allison Ball, A. Hitchins, N. Stark, C. Martin, K. Energy in
Australia 2012, February 2012, Australian Government, Department of Resources, Energy
and Tourism, Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics, pp 3-7.
Peter Seligman, P. 2010, Australian Sustainable Energy by the numbers,
Melbourne Energy Institute University of Melbourne July 2, 2010, ver. 1.3.
Stapleton, G. & Milne, G. 2013, Your Home Renewable Energy.
University of Melbourne, Energy Research Institute, Zero Carbon Australia
Stationary Energy Plan Synopsis, ZCa2020 Stationary energy Plan.
Australian Burea Of Statistics 2013, Information Paper: Towards the Australian
Environmental-Economic Accounts, 2013, viewed 14 April 2015,
<http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Products/4655.0.55.002~2013~Main+Features~C
hapter+3+Energy?OpenDocument>

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CO2Now, CO2Now Homepage 2014, viewed 14th April 2015, < http://co2now.org/>

(7) Proposed Marking scheme for online documentation (select from the suggested
categories below and/or suggest new categories for your marking scheme)
Do not remove or change the existing headings (* leave the red text as is add comment after
if desired)
MARKING CRITERIA
Research: Quality sources of information,
referenced appropriately, information
synthesised and analysed. (between 25 35%)
Creation: Creation of new and useful
information summaries or analyses, usually
via graphical means. For example
development of S-curves, roadmaps,
scenarios, flow charts, and/or other
information formats based on multiple
sources of information. (between 30% - 35%)
Cohesiveness: Each project will focus on a
theme and identify a specific purpose (or
purposes). The final result will be presented
in a cohesive manner. (between 10% - 15%)
Innovativeness: Novel approaches to
documentation and presentation of results are
encouraged. Harnessing the power of the
online format will be rewarded in this section
(between 10% - 20%)
Improvement: Incorporation of peer review
feedback to improve the online
documentation (between 10% - 20%)

Proposed
percentage
weighting (use
multiples of 5%)
30

30

10

20

10

Other: (describe and/or add extra rows)

TOTAL check that weightings equal 100 %

Comments (optional)

100

Creative use of online

format for special blog /
website presentation of
findings